MAY 2013 - Kresna Securities

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
TELECOMMUNICATION
Mobile-phone users (m people)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
TLKM
ISA T
EXCL
Major Companies
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector Earnings Outlook
FY13F FY14F
Revenue Growth (%) 7.5 6.6
EBITDA Growth (%) 8.0 6.5
EPS Growth (%) 13.5 11.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 49.6 49.6
Net Margin (%) 14.4 15.1
ROE (%) 18.8 19.2
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.2
PER (x) 16.4 14.7
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector:
• Ministry to reset 3G canal. Ministry of Telecommunication
and Communication through its task force, SDPPI, has
arranged the changes to 3G canal, after finishing the
process selecting 3G block for canal 11 and 12. The
regulation underlying is no 31 of 2012 which stated 2.1 GHz
radio frequency band for the provision of IMT-2000 mobile
cellular network. Source: Investor Daily
• Telkomsel, XL, and Indosat to discuss a collaboration.
Three Indonesia biggest cellular operators (Telkomsel,
Indosat, and XL) start to discuss collaboration for their
content service. This collaboration will be beneficial for their
subscribers and partners. The three biggest operator
subscribers are reported to reach 200.0m and this will give
interest for mobile advertising partners. Later, under the
new collaboration, advertisers will just need to contact one
of the three operators and their advertisement will be
distributed among them. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
250
200
150
100
50
-
TLKM:
• TLKM to propose 65.0% DPR. Telkom proposed 65.0%
DPR, rising from last three-year average DPR. The dividend
nominal is predicted to be around Rp8.3tr. Meanwhile, XL
received approval from shareholders to pay out a dividend
of Rp1.2tr, equal to Rp135 per share. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
• Loses bid in Myanmar, still going to Myanmar. Telkom
did not qualify in the pre-qualification mobile license tender
in Myanmar, having failed to meet one requirement.
However, Telkom will still be there, having secured projects
to build telecommunication networks in Myanmar, starting
this year. Source: Jakarta Globe
• Telkomsel net profit increase by 22.0%. Telkomsel
posted a net profit of Rp15.7tr, increasing by 22.0% YoY in
FY12. The company leads the market with 55.0% market
share from the three biggest cellular operator with 125m
subscribers. Meanwhile, Telkomsel raise its 3G BTS by
11,675 units and have more than 15,000 units 3G BTS by
the end of 2012. Source: Investor Daily
• 40% of Total Capex from external financing.
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) is preparing global and
domestic bonds issue to finance around 40.0% of their total
capex, equivalent to Rp8.0tr in FY13. Telkom’s total capex
for 2013 is expected to be around Rp20.0tr. Another option
considered by Telkom is export credit agency worth of
Rp3.6-5.4tr. Right now, Telkom is considering to split their
stocks with ratio 1:5. After stock split, the share price will be
around Rp2,380. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
EXCL: to spend Rp9.0tr on data boost
XL Axiata plans to set aside Rp9.0tr (US$928m) for capital
expenditure this year. The main expansion focus is to improve
its data business, especially in its 3G network. Lately, XL won an
auction for a new 3G block from the government, for which it
paid Rp512bn. XL’s CFO says the company has secured a
$110m loan from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ to support
capex financing. Source: Jakarta Globe
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that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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