MAY 2013 - Kresna Securities

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
MONTHLY BULLETIN
MAY 2013
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0

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
Dear Valued Clients,
Global stock markets edged up during Apr13: Asian, EU, and US
markets all rose by 4.8%, 1.0%, and 1.8% before settling at
142.1, 296.7, and 14839.8, respectively. Such robust returns in
Asian markets were apparently driven by optimism from further
monetary expansion, as Bank of Japan reportedly plans to buy
¥7.0tr (US$74bn) worth of bonds a month, in an attempt to reach
a 2.0% inflation target (Japan is still in a deflationary stage,
recorded at -0.9% YoY in Mar13,). Apparently, such positive
returns were also propelled by speculation from the way of
China’s Government would alleviate pressure on its credit policy,
given that its economy remains in recovery, with benign inflation
supportive of such a policy (inflation was recorded at 2.1% YoY
in Mar13). Such optimism managed to mitigate disappointing
economic figures in China; manufacturing was recorded at 50.9
in Mar13 (lower than expectation at 51.2), while its economy only
grew by 7.7% YoY in 1Q13, slower than prior quarter figure of
7.9% YoY and expectation of 8.0% YoY.
Across the ocean, EU markets were lifted by speculation that
ECB would lower its reference rate to 0.5% (to be fixed on
May 2, 2013) amidst disappointing economic figures in EU,
where manufacturing was recorded at 46.5, in contraction since
Aug11. In addition, it was reported that IMF and EU plan in
extending a bailout for Portugal and Ireland, up to seven years,
while they allow Cyprus an extra two years (up to 2018) to meet
its budget targets. In the meantime, US markets managed to
maintain a positive trajectory, suggesting they are influenced by
an unemployment rate, which managed to outperform
expectations, (recorded at 7.6% in Mar13, projected figure was
7.7%), along with its growing economy (US GDP grew by 2.5%
QoQ in 1Q13).
Looking at our domestic markets, trading in JCI was dampened
by an inflation concern, as it accelerated faster than participants’
projection in Mar13, rising by 0.63% MoM in Mar13 (5.9% YoY)
while participants only projected 0.36% MoM (5.56% YoY). In
addition, Bank Indonesia toned down its growth outlook to
6.2%-6.6% (lower than previous forecast of 6.3%-6.8%);
however, the growth outlook was still in line with participants’
projection of 6.25% YoY growth in 2013. Going forward,
deflation in April13 (-0.1% MoM, 5.8% YoY figure) would
support JCI trading. Yet, we are still cautious about the
subsidized-fuel policy as it might propel inflation and trigger
short-term profit taking, given the fact that JCI is traded at
premium multiple of 17.5x FY13 P/E vs MSCI Asia of 14.3x.
Having said this, we project JCI to trade within 4,750-5,180.
Regards,
Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
1

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
• Year-to-date return
- US markets rose by 13.2% YTD
- EU markets increased by 6.1% YTD
- Asian markets increased by 9.9% YTD
- Asian markets ex-Japan slightly up by 3.9%
YTD
- JCI rose by 16.6% YTD
120
117
114
111
Global Equity Markets Performance (YTD)
JCI Asia
EU US
108
105
102
99
1/Jan 16/Jan 31/Jan 15/Feb 2/Mar 17/Mar 1/Apr 16/Apr
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• Month-on-month return in April 2013
- US markets slightly up by 1.8% MoM
- EU markets inched up by 1.0% MoM
- Asian markets rose by 4.8% MoM
- Asian markets ex Japan increased by 2.4%
MoM
- JCI slightly increased by 1.9% MoM
106
105
104
103
102
JCI
EU
Global Equity Markets Performance
Asia
US
101
100
99
98
97
96
95
31-Mar-13 7-Apr-13 14-Apr-13 21-Apr-13 28-Apr-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• Japan is still in a deflationary stage, recorded at
-0.9% YoY in Mar13,
(% YoY)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Japan Inflation
-0.2
-0.4
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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2

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
• Government of China would alleviate pressure on
its credit policy, given that its economy remains in
recovery
(% YoY)
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
China GDP
7.0
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• China inflation was recorded at 2.1% YoY in
Mar13
(% YoY)
5.0
China Inflation
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
• China manufacturing was recorded at 50.9 in
Mar13 (lower than expectation at 51.2)
54.0
53.0
52.0
51.0
50.0
49.0
China Manufacturing
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• EU markets were lifted by speculation that ECB
would lower its reference rate to 0.5% on 2nd of
May.
(%)
2.0
ECB Rate
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
3

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
• Disappointing economic figures in EU, it shows
from its manufacturing that was recorded at 46.5,
in contraction since Aug11
50
48
EU Manufacturing
46
44
42
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
• US unemployment rate, managed to outperform
the expectations, (recorded at 7.6% in Mar13,
projected figure was 7.7%)
(%)
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4
US Unemployment Rate
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• US markets has managed to maintain a positive
trajectory along with its economy (US GDP grew
by 2.5% QoQ in 1Q13).
(% QoQ)
5.0
4.0
US GDP
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• Trading in JCI was dampened by an inflation
concern, as it accelerates faster than participants’
projection in Mar13, rising by 0.63% MoM in
Mar13 (5.9% YoY) while participants projected at
0.36% MoM (5.56% YoY)
(% YoY)
7.0
6.0
5.0
Indonesia Inflation
4.0
3.0
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
4

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
• Bank Indonesia toned down its growth outlook to
6.2%-6.6%. It was slightly lower than previous
forecast of 6.3%-6.8%, but it was in line with
participants’ projection of 6.25% YoY growth in
2013
(% YoY)
6.6
6.4
Indonesia GDP
6.2
6.0
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• JCI is trading at a premium 17.5x P/E’13
compared to regional markets’ 14.3x.
P/E'13
17.0
Indonesia (JCI)
Asia (MXAP)
16.0
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
• JCI leading and lagging movers in Apr13
Leading Movers
Lagging Movers
Ticker Beginning Ending % MoM Ticker Beginning Ending % MoM
UNVR 22,800 26,250 15.1 ASII 7,900 7,350 (7.0)
BBRI 8,750 9,400 7.4 BBCA 11,400 10,750 (5.7)
TLKM 11,000 11,700 6.4 GTBO 5,850 3,150 (46.2)
BMRI 10,000 10,500 5.0 SIMP 1,050 800 (23.8)
INTP 23,300 26,400 13.3 LSIP 1,930 1,520 (21.2)
ICBP 9,600 11,450 19.3 ISAT 6,500 6,000 (7.7)
KLBF 1,240 1,390 12.1 ADRO 1,310 1,230 (6.1)
PGAS 5,950 6,250 5.0 BBTN 1,700 1,490 (12.4)
BBNI 5,050 5,400 6.9 BMTR 2,325 2,175 (6.5)
JSMR 5,950 6,700 12.6 TSPC 3,850 3,400 (11.7)
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
5

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MONTH
Period: April 2013
AUTOMOTIVE
Car sales
(Units)
110,000
100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
76,427
2012 2013
96,704
86,485
103,268
87,919
95,936
87,145
95,541
101,746
102,512
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: PT. Astra Internasional, CEIC, Kresna Research
Motorcycle sales
(Units)
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
645,863
646,082
2012 2013
666,136
649,434
619,678
665,334
617,508
611,251
541,918
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Source: PT. Astra Internasional, CEIC, Kresna Research
579,077
76,445
429,236
102,096
620,499
106,744
626,901
103,699
621,224
89,456
485,116
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sector:
• Automotive: Car sales accelerated, Toyota still on the
lead. The implementation of minimum down payment
regulation since 2Q12 didn’t have significant impact on car
sales. In the 1Q13, car wholesale and retail sales is reported
to accelerate by 18.7% and 13.0% YoY, with Toyota Astra
Motor (TAM) leading the retail sales by 96.762 units,
followed by Daihatsu with 42.197 units sold.
Brand 1Q12 1Q13
Toyota 96,609 96,762
Daihatsu 39,099 41,441
Mitsubishi 33,591 39,249
Suzuki 23,441 37,120
Nissan 15,948 20,740
Honda 7,643 16,157
Isuzu 7,283 7,315
Mazda 1,782 1,786
Others 23,202 20,976
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Motorcycle: National sales increase by 1.0%. 1Q13
National motorcycle sales have slightly increased by 1.0%
YoY, according to Indonesia Motorcycle Industry
Association (AISI). This growth mainly comes from Honda,
which grew by 13.7% YoY. Meanwhile, Suzuki, Yamaha,
and Kawasaki sales have dropped by 26.1%, 12.5%, and
0.9% YoY, respectively. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Automotive: Import rose, while export fell. Motorcycle
export in 1Q13 fell by 46.0% YoY to 9,973 units, while the
export rose by 18.0% to 9,561 units. Honda and TVS
increase their export by 142.4% and 77.6%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Honda export in 1Q13 fell by 10.0% to 4.821
units due the premium segment which is not produced in
Indonesia. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Motorcycle: Indonesia dominates ASEAN market.
Indonesia contributes 70.5% from total 1.9m units
motorcycle sold in the ASEAN in 2M13. On the other hand,
Asean Automotive Federation (AAF) announces total
motorcycle production 2M13 decreased 4.3% to 1.9m units.
Country 2M12 2M13 %Chg
Indonesia 1,323,358 1,303,340 (1.5)
Thailand 328,655 357,989 8.9
Malaysia 85,611 82,522 (3.6)
Philippine 102,205 103,965 1.7
Singapore 1,638 1,737 6.0
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
6

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
ASII:
• Astra Honda Motor AHM sales increase by 11.0%. In
1Q13, Astra Honda Motor (AHM) recorded an increase in
sales by 11% YoY, boosted by motorsport segment growth,
which reached 70%-80% YoY. However, AHM Deputy GM
Sales Division has stated that monthly sales in 2Q13 could
shrink to fewer than 400,000 units because of the impact of
the new sharia minimum down payment regulation.
AHM Sales 2012 2013
Jan 382,635 398,608
Feb 355,766 401,103
Mar 325,642 410,000*
*preliminary data; Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Toyota sales increase by 8.2%. Toyota sales in 1Q13 are
reported to increase by 8.2% YoY to 103,967 units. Toyota
MPV segment booked 68,855 units sales and lead the
market by 51.6% market share. In sedan segment, Toyota
booked 3,172 units sales with 41% market share.
Meanwhile, in SUV segment, Toyota sold 13,376 units with
only 38.1% market share. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Delay production due to regulation. Daihatsu delays
production of Ayla and Agya, its eco-friendly vehicle
models. The company is waiting for government regulations
on low-cost green cars before producing Ayla and Agya (in
collaboration with Toyota). Daihatsu is reported to have lost
the opportunity to optimize the production of Agya and Ayla.
Right now, the production should be 6,000 units per month.
Source: Jakarta Globe
• 64.0% market share for Honda. Honda is dominating the
market for injection-motorcycle with total 64.0% market
share. The manufacturer managed to sell 878,414 units
injection motorcycle in 1Q13. Honda beat is the greatest
contributor with 453.479 units sold and followed by Vario
with 276.480 units sold.
Varian Units Sold
Beat 453,479
Vario 276,480
Scoopy 41,499
CB150R 38,031
Spacy 27,660
Verza 25,067
Supra X 21,033
CBR 3,851
PCX 970
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Net profit drops 7.0%. In a statement yesterday, Astra said
that its net income fell 7.0% YoY to Rp4.3tr in 1Q13. The
automotive division saw a 10% YoY drop to Rp2.2tr,
despite a 6.4% sales increase by volume. The Agribusiness
division fell 6.0% YoY to Rp300bn due to 16.0% drop in
CPO selling price. Meanwhile, Finance Division net income
rose by 23.0% YoY to Rp1tr.
Division Net Income (Rptr) %YoY
Automotive 2.2 (10)
Finance 1.0 23
Heavy equipment 0.7 (26)
Agribusiness 0.4 (6)
Infrastructure & logistics 0.1 (19)
Information Technology 0.0 (22)
Source: The Jakarta Globe
• Changing the business priority. After the disappointing
1Q13 result, Astra decide to change the capital expenditure
composition. Overall capex for FY13 is expected to be
Rp15.5tr (+16% from FY12). ASII will increase capex portion
for infrastructure division and decrease the mining & heavy
equipment division shares. Capex for infrastructure division
will be Rp2.8tr, almost 6x from Rp500.0bn last year. The
company dropped mining & heavy equipment division
capex to Rp2.9tr (-42.0% from prior plan). On the other
hand, despite the low expectation of car sales, capex for
automotive division increased 17.5% to Rp8.4tr. ASII has
decided to pay dividend around 45.0% from FY12 net
income or Rp216.0 per share. The interim dividend
amounting Rp66.0 has been paid before and the remainder
will be paid on 7 Jun13. Source: Business Indonesia
GJTL: FY12 Financial Result
In Rpbn FY12 FY11 %Chg FY12E %Dev
Sales 12,579 11,841 6.2 13,097 -4.0
Gross profit 2,437 1,669 46.0 NA NA
Operating profit 1,677 1,010 66.1 1,458 15.0
Net income 1,132 685 65.4 929 21.9
Gross Margin (%) 19.4 14.1 5.3 NA NA
Operating Margin (%) 13.3 8.5 4.8 11.1 2.2
Net Margin (%) 9.0 5.8 3.2 7.1 1.9
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
AUTO:
• Plans to raise Rp2.9tr from rights offering. Astra Otoparts
(AUTO) plans to sell 964m shares, or 25% of its enlarged
capital, at Rp3,100 a share, AUTO plans to raise Rp 2.9tr
from this rights offering. Around 52%, or Rp1.5tr, of the
proceeds will be used to repay bank loans. Around 23% or
Rp667bn will be used to repay bridging loans it used to buy
an automotive components maker. Source: Jakarta Globe
• AUTO sets aside Rp1.2tr for joint ventures. Astra
Otoparts (AUTO) has allocated Rp1.2tr for future joint
ventures in an effort to expand its business. This is due to
Japanese automotive component makers’ plan to build
plants in Indonesia. This year, AUTO total capex will be
around Rp2.5-3.0tr - about Rp1.0tr of the budget will be
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
7

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
used to increase production capacity, Rp500.0bn for the
development of new products, and another Rp300.0bn for
infrastructure. Source: Investor Daily
• New business follows stock acquisition. Astra Otoparts
(AUTO) has acquired 51% stake of PT Pakoakuina, worth
Rp700bn. Following the acquisition, AUTO will engage in
wheel rim production as their new automotive component
business. The production of wheel rims will take place in a
3.8-acre Sunter factory and 14.5-acre Karawang factory,
with a total capacity of 7.4m units per year. Source: Tempo
IPO Update: MPM to seek Rp2.0tr in May IPO. Mitra
Pinasthika Mustika (MPM), an Indonesian integrated motorcycle
distributor, plans to raise Rp2.0tr (equivalent to 28.3% of
company’s ownership) from selling shares through an initial
public offering in May13. The price is expected to range
between Rp1,500-2,000. MPM plans to use the proceeds to
expand the business of its car rental arm, spare parts, lubricants
distribution, and insurer unit, as well as repay its bank loans and
finance its working capital. Source: The Jakarta Globe
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
8

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
BANKING AND FINANCE
Loan
(Rptr)
3,000
2,500
2012 2013
two years), up from US$85.0m last year. Source: The Jakarta
Post
BBNI to distribute Rp113.0 dividend per share. Bank
Tabungan Negara Indonesia (BBNI) is reported to be ready to
distribute a total of Rp2.1tr dividend, equivalent to Rp113.0 per
share, on 16May13. The dividend payout ratio is said to stand at
30.0%, with a dividend yield of 2.2%. Source: Koran Tempo
2,000
1,500
2,688
2,719
2,184
2,203
2,266
2,317
2,386
2,453
2,470
2,511
2,556
2,585
2,631
2,708
BDMN: Net profit grew by 12.0%. Bank Danamon (BDMN)
posted a net profit of Rp1.0tr or increased by 12.0% YoY. This
growth supported by increase in mass market, small business,
and commercial segment. On the other hand, Danamon’s CAR
and ROA sets to 20.0% and 2.7%. in the 1Q13, Danamon
increased their “cheap fund” or total DPK by 4% to Rp113.8tr
while the deposit decreased by 11% to Rp47.2tr. Source:
Investor Daily
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC
NPL rate
(%)
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
1.5
2.4
2.3
2.0 2.0
2.3 2.3
2.3
2.2 2.2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC
2.2
2.1
2012 2013
BMRI and BBTN to distribute dividend. BMRI (Bank Mandiri)
and BBTN (Bank Tabungan Negara) are to distribute Rp 199.34
and Rp38.74 dividend per share, respectively. BMRI is to pay on
16 May13, while BBTN on 10 May13. Dividend yield of BMRI
and BBTN are 2.0% and 2.3%, respectively. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
2.1
2.0
1.9
NISP to launch Rp900.0bn notes. Bank OCBC NISP (NISP)
plans to issue Rp900.0bn medium term notes to support its
lending this year. The notes will have 7.0% offering yield and is
expected to mature in 2016. The notes have obtained AAA rating
from Pefindo. Source: The Jakarta Post
BNLI books Rp100.7tr credit. Bank Permata (BNLI) has
booked Rp100.7tr credit as of 1Q13, up 36.0% YoY. Operating
profit grew 12.0% to Rp463.0bn, while net profit rose 7.0% YoY
to Rp356.0bn. Net NPL ratio went down to 0.4% (from 0.6%
previously), while CAR increased to 16.2%, and LDR rose to
89.5% (from a previous 86.8%). Source: Investor Daily
IPO Update: Nobu Bank to sell 52.0% stake in May13.
Following the public expose held on Tue (16/13), Nobu Bank
plans to sell 52.0%, equivalent to Rp862.0bn, of its capital on
May13; the proceeds will be used for business expansion. The
issue price is expected to range between Rp325.0-400.0 per
share, with P/E of 20.8 to 25.0x. Nobu Bank plans to open 70
offices and targets loan growth of up to 50.0% YoY in FY13.
Source: The Jakarta Post
BMRI set to boost corporate loans. For FY13, Bank Mandiri
(BMRI) eyes 18.0% YoY increase in corporate loans to
Rp149.0tr, while aiming its corporate deposits to grow by 30.0%
YoY to Rp81.9tr. BMRI planned to set aside US$120.0m-
US$130.0m capex for IT investment (same amount for the next
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
9

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
COAL
Coal price (US$/MT)
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector:
• Geothermal Plants Get Go-Ahead. The construction of
Sarulla Geothermal Power project is set to commence in
North Sumatera, worth a total of US$1.5bn. The facility will
have the capacity of 330MW, making it the world’s largest
geothermal generator. The facility is expected to be fully
operational in 2018. The price of the electricity generated
from the power plant is 6.8 cents/kwh. Medco Power holds
37% stake in this project, while Itochu and Kyushu Electric
owns 25% each, and Ormat Technologies owns the
remaining 13%. Source: Jakarta Globe
• Indonesian coal prices drop as China curbs purchase.
Indonesian coal price was US$70/MT in the week ended 29
Mar13 for bituminous grade with 5,800 kcal and 2.0%
sulfur, down from US$72/MT a week earlier as China curbed
purchases. According to China Coal Transport and
Distribution Association, power station coal inventories in
China climbed to 8.3mt in 24 Mar13 - the highest since
Jul12. Price of sub-bituminous coal with 4,500kcal and
1.0% sulfur was US$48.7, down from US$52.4 a week
earlier, and coal price with 4,000kcal and 0.5% sulfur was
US$39.8, compared to US$43.1 in previous week. Source:
Jakarta Globe.
• Indonesian coal prices seen rising on India demand.
Prices of power-station coal in Indonesia may gain in
coming weeks as Indian buyers step up purchases. India is
likely to increase stockpiles for the monsoon season, which
normally runs from June to September. Heavy rains can
hamper shipments and reduce coal quality. Price of
Indonesian bituminous coal with 5,800kcal/kg and 2% sulfur
increased from US$70/ton to US$ 71.8/ton. Price of subbituminous
coal with 4,500kcal/kg and 1% sulfur increased
to US$52/ton, up from US$48.7/ton the previous week.
Source: Jakarta Globe.
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
• Foreign demand for low-grade coal is on the rise.
Demand for low-grade Indonesian coal, with a heating
content of 3,800kcal/kg and 4,200kcal/kg is on the rise,
matching an abundant supply. Based on a statement the
Chairman of Indonesian Coal Miners Association, Bob
Kamandanu, Indonesia’s total coal output only grew 2-3%
in the first quarter of this year, output of low-grade coal
climbed by around 20%. Indonesia produces around 31mt
of coal per month, totaling around 93mt in the first quarter
of this year. Source: Jakarta Globe.
• 400mt of coal in 2013. Coal production is expected to
increase 4.4% YoY, from 383mt in 2012 to 400mt in 2013.
Based on Chairman of Indonesian Coal Miners Association,
Bob Kamandanu, rising demand from Asian countries, such
as Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan, has
encouraged Indonesian miners to ratchet up coal
production. Against this, the domestic market obligation
(DMO) of coal is expected to be low, because of the delay in
getting coal-fired power plant projects owned by PLN and
independent power producers (IPP) into operation. Source:
Investor Daily
• Slower demand hurts Chinese miners. China is now
battling with coal oversupply as its power generation from
hydropower plants has surged. A flood of cheaper coal
imports, which jumped by around a third last year to reach
234mt, has also hit local prices. With oversupply, coal
prices will fall in the short term that will lead to lower
margins for coal producers. Source: Jakarta Globe.
• China’s coal imports rebound. China’s Mar13 import rose
to 20.5mt, compared with 18.1mt in Feb13. Total imports in
1Q13 rose 27.0% YoY to 63.8mt. Indonesia sold 6.0mt to
China in Mar13, up by 19.0% YoY. The surge in Indonesian
supply was led by China’s growing demand for low sulfur
sub-bituminous coal to be used for blending purpose.
Source: Jakarta Globe.
BUMI:
• BUMI unable to verify Berau Unit spending, delays
earning results. Bumi Plc has been unable to verify some
spending at its Berau Coal Energy unit. Berau’s
management said there was “not sufficient evidence to
support the capitalization of certain expenditures” estimated
at about US$56.0m last year. Management management is
also unable to fully verify some US$38.0m in land payments.
Bumi’s FY results, due April 24, will need to be further
delayed. Source: Jakarta Globe.
• Coal sales down to US$1.3bn in 1Q13. Bumi Resources’s
(BUMI) coal sales is reported to decrease by 11.0% YoY,
from US$1.5bn in 1Q12 to US$1.3bn in 1Q13, due to the
decrease in ASP from US$92.7/ton to US$73.0/ton.
However, sales volume increased by 20.6%, from 15.8mt to
19.1mt. The strip ratio decreased from 10.8 to 9.5. BUMI
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
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10

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
will cut down production cost and capex this year.
Therefore, it will decrease mining cost to US$2.5/ton.
Source: Investor Daily
• BUMI trading suspended pending Berau review. Bumi Plc
requested a suspension of trading its shares on Monday, as
a consequence of a prolonged financial review of Berau
Coal Energy (BRAU). Bumi said the new management was
unable to verify a number of expenditure items, including
expenditure on the development of hauling roads and
overburden removal amounting to around US$56.0m last
year and US$38.0m in transaction relating to payments to
landowners. Source: The Jakarta Post
PTBA:
• 1Q13 revenue down 8.6%. Bukit Asam (PTBA) booked
Rp2.8tr revenue in 1Q13, down 8.6% YoY, while its net
profit plunged by 76.0% YoY to Rp493.2bn. As of 1Q13, its
coal sales grew 17.1% YoY to 4.5m tons, with the ASP of
Rp613.8K/ton. This year, the company eyes 35.2% increase
in its coal sales volume to 15.3m tons. Source: Investor
Daily
• Net profit decreased by 43.0%. PTBA booked Rp497.6bn
of net profit in 1Q13, down 42.8% YoY, compared to last
year net profit, which was Rp870.5bn. Coal sales volume
increased 17.0%, from 3.9mt to 4.5mt in 1Q13. However,
average selling price is just Rp613,810/ton, and it caused
the revenue to decrease by 8.0%, from Rp3.0tr to Rp2.8tr.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
UNTR:
• US$230m capex. United Tractors (UNTR) has allocated
US$230.0m capital expenditure this year, lower than prior
budget of US$250.0m. US$190.0m is for Pamapersada
Nusantara (the company’s subsidiary), while the remainder
is for other businesses. As of 1Q13, the amount of realized
capex has reached US$50.0m. UNTR projects this year’s
heavy equipment sales to decrease by 19.3% YoY to 5,000
units, while eyeing market share of 43.0-44.0%. The
company is to distribute Rp410 final dividend per share this
year on 31 May13; equivalent to 2.3% dividend yield.
Source: Investor Daily
• Drop of heavy equipment sales. UNTR projected the
heavy equipment sales decreased by 24.0% to 5,000 units
this year. According to Vice President Director of UNTR,
Gidion Hasan, national heavy equipment market was 14,000
units in 2012, compared with 18,000 units in 2011. It
happened because absorption of heavy equipment in
mining sectors fell 10.0-15.0% due to lower coal price.
Company will pay 3.3% dividend yield, equivalent to
Rp620.0/share. Source: Koran Tempo
ADRO: Distributing US$117.1m of dividend
Adaro Energy (ADRO) distributed 30.4% dividend, decreased by
30.0% YoY, which was US$550.4m. Interim dividend has been
distributed in June 12, 2012 which was US$76.8m and US$
40.3m of the dividend will be pain in January 15, 2013. Source:
Bisnis Indonesia
ITMG: US$150m allocated for capex. ITMG has allocated
US$150m for capex, to be spent on mining infrastructure,
including roads for coal transportation and a crushing &
conveying project. Production target for 2013 is 29mt and the
company has set an annual production growth target at 10% for
the next 5 years. ITMG has approved a dividend payment of
Rp1,464 per share (DPR is 85%). Source: Jakarta Globe
HRUM: FY12 Financial Result
In US$m FY12 FY11 %Chg FY12E %Dev
Sales 1,043 831 25.5 1,013 3.0
Gross profit 319 339 -6.0 318 0.3
Operating profit 212 254 -16.6 208 1.5
Net income 132 158 -16.9 148 -11.3
Gross Margin (%) 30.6 40.8 -10.2 31.4 -0.8
Operating Margin (%) 20.3 30.5 -10.2 20.6 -0.3
Net Margin (%) 12.6 19.1 -6.4 14.6 -2.0
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
INDY: Reducing its capex. INDY is reported to reduce its
capex by 69.5% YoY, from US$256.2m to US$78.2m.
Meanwhile, company’s net profit posted 46.3% YoY decrease to
US$68.68m in Fy12. On the other hand, revenue is reported to
increase by 26.3% YoY to US$749.7m, fueled by the increase in
contract and service revenue and coal sales.
Capex Allocation of INDY (in million US$)
FY12
Allocation
FY12
Realization
Realization
(%)
FY13
Allocation
Petrosea 180.0 149.0 82.7 33.9
MBSS 38.1 48.6 127.5 1.9
Tripatra 0.7 2.4 342.9 3.0
Resources 30.5 10.0 32.8 34.9
Holding 6.9 2.5 36.8 4.5
Total 256.2 212.5 82.9 78.2
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
GEMS: Falling coal prices hit profits. GEMS booked a 43%
YoY fall in net income, from Rp319bn to Rp179bn, due to falling
coal prices in the global marketplace. While coal prices
softened, operational costs rose, diesel fuel also increased, and
the Indonesian Rupiah depreciated. Coal production volume was
up 22% YoY, from 4.39 mmt to 5.345 mmt and sales volume
also increased, by 35%, to 7.687 mmt. Source: Jakarta Globe
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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11

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
BSSR:
• 124.8% increase in net profit. Baramulti Suksessarana
Tbk (BSSR) has booked 124.8% YoY increase in net profits,
from US$4.4m in FY11 to US$9.8m in FY12. Revenue
increased 95.3% YoY, from US$55.8m in FY11 to
US$109.0m last year, while COGS increased 122.2% YoY,
from US$29.3m in 2011 to US$65.1m in 2012. Source:
Bisnis Indonesia
• BSSR seeks US$40m loan. Baramulti Suksessarana
(BSSR) is seeking US$40.0m loan to repay a portion of a
debt incurred by its subsidiary, Antang Gunung Meratus
(AGM), in an asset transaction from Baramulti Sugih
Sentosa (BMSS), worth US$50.0m. AGM purchased a 2.6m
sqm plot of land in Tapin (South Kalimantan), including
buildings and infrastructure, as the company aims to
streamline its coal transportation. AGM has set aside
US$10.0m receivable towards BMSS, and issued US$
40.0m promissory notes with 6 months’ duration and 0.0%
coupon rate. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
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that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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12

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
OIL AND GAS
Nymex Oil Price (US$/bbl)
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector:
• RI’s average crude oil price declines in March. The
average crude oil price declined 7% MoM to
US$107.4/barrel in March, from US$114.9 in February. This
year, the government’s projected Indonesian Crude Price
(ICP) in 2013 is around US$100/barrel, with an ambitious oil
output target of 900,000bpd. Source: The Jakarta Post
• Oil and Gas: Incentive for the industry. According to
Decree of Ministry of Finance 70/PMK.011/2013, the
government will provide an exemption for oil and gas
companies from the obligation to pay the VAT of imported
goods and import duties for exploration and exploitation.
The regulation is expected to give positive impacts for oil
and gas industry. Average national oil production in Mar13
reached 840,000 barrel/day, while the average production in
1Q13 topped 830,900 barrel/day. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Shale gas could be the next big thing. BCG says shale
gas could serve as alternative energy source for Indonesia,
lessening the country’s reliance on fossil fuel. The website
of upstream energy resources regulator SKKMigas shows
that Indonesia’s potential shale gas reserves are estimated
to be as much as 574.0tscf, which would be more than
453tscf for CBM and 334tscf for natural gas. Source:
Jakarta Globe
PGAS:
• PGAS asks Government to review unbundling regulation.
Permen No. 19/2009 regulates the unbundling gas
transmission and gas distribution role of PGAS, which will
increase its cost about US$72.6m per year. Gas distribution
currently costs US$342.0m per year, and this will increase
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
to US$414.0m per year with the new system. Therefore,
PGAS is asking the government to review the regulation
because the additional cost will put pressure on gas prices.
Source: Investor Daily.
• PGAS to acquire oil and gas field. PGAS has set aside
US$1.0bn to acquire 3 oil and gas fields this year. Capex
will be around US$250-500m, which will be used for gas
pipeline expansion. The company targets to build gas
pipeline in Central Java, and also in Riau and Sumatra.
Sales volume is eyed to increase by 5-10% this year. PGAS
will distribute dividend, with DPR of 58.8%, and is
equivalent to Rp202.8/share. Source: Tempo
MEDC:
• MEDC and ABMM eye more mini-hydro projects. Medco
Power Indonesia, a subsidiary of Medco Energi
Internasional (MEDC), has been working on a 10MW minihydro
project in Sukabumi and signed 4 more contracts for
other development projects in West Java and South
Sulawesi that will produce a total of 50MW. MEDC has set
aside US$20m for mini-hydro development this year as part
of its FY13 total capex of US$135.0m. Meanwhile, ABM
Investama (ABMM) also conducted studies to develop minihydro
projects that would produce about the same size.
ABMM has finalized on 5MW and 10MW projects in South
Sulawesi. The development of a mini-hydro plant would
require investment of around US$2.0m/MW. Source: The
Jakarta Post
• Sales slump hits profit. Medco Energi International (MEDC)
has reported 59.0% decline in profit for 1Q13. Net income
fell 41.4%, from US$4.4m in 1Q12 to US$1.8m in 1Q13.
Revenue dropped 4% to US$221.0m this year, while COGS
rose 3.4% to US$136.0m. Source: Jakarta Globe.
• Seeks to borrow US$165.0m. Medco Energi Internasional
(MEDC) will use US$140.0m of its loan to fund upstream
projects and US$25.0m for developing Block A in Aceh. The
company sets aside US$550.0m capex; US$230.0m of its
capex is allocated to fund upstream Senoro, Donggisenoro
LNG, Block A Aceh, Area47 Libya, and Block Riau; and
US$220.0m is used for maintaining production facility. Net
profit decreased by 33.8% for 1Q13, from US$5.3m in 1Q12
to US$3.5m in 1Q13. Revenue slightly decreased by 3.7%
to US$221.3m. Oil selling price dropped by US$5, with
US$115/barrel as the average selling price; company will
renegotiate gas price from US$4.0/mmbtu to
US$5.0/mmbtu; and coal average selling price is
US$82.0/ton. MEDC will pay 30.0% dividend of its net
profit. Source: Investor Daily
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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13

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
ENRG:
• 4.1m new share rights issue. Energy Mega Persada
(ENRG) has announced its plan to perform a nonpreemptive
rights issue on 15 Apr13, involving divestment of
10.0% of ownership, involving 4.06m shares. The intended
strike price is Rp100/share, which to be allocated to fund
business expansion (such as acquiring a stake in PSCs) and
fulfilling working capital requirements in ENRG and its
subsidiaries. The company aims to increase its production
rate to 55.0k boepd in 2013 (a 44.7% increase YoY).
Meanwhile, the company has allocated US$223.0m for
capex in 2013. Source: Company and Investor Daily
• Selling 10% stake. Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia has agreed
to buy a 10% stake in ENRG for US$42m. Imam Agustino,
the president director of ENRG said that the brokerage’s
company bought more than 4 billion shares at Rp100.0. The
Funds from the sale is to be used to boost company capital.
Source: Jakarta Globe.
ELSA: 1Q13 Profit surpassed the target. PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA)
first quarter net profit surpassed its target. The net profit target
is Rp138.0bn for this year. ELSA has signed contract, mostly for
oil field services, which is US$154.0m. The company agreed to
distribute 10.0% dividend of its net profit, which is equivalent to
Rp1.8/share. Source: Bisnis Indonesia.
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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14

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
METALS
Nickel price (US$/MT)
23,000
21,000
19,000
17,000
15,000
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Sector:
• Gold prices decline. Gold prices in London declined, along
with economic growth speculation of gold demand cutdown
as hedging instrument. Based on Bloomberg data, the
gold price has decreased by 5.5% this year. Goldman
Sachs has cut down the quarterly gold price from
US$1,615/ounce to US$1,530/ounce, while annual gold
price projection has been reduced from US$1,550/ounce to
US$1,390/ounce. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• Steel demand may grow 2.9%. According to World Steel
Association data, world steel demand is estimated to grow
about 2.9% to 1.45m ton this year, while next year will
increase further by 3.2% to 1.5m tons. Last year, steel
demand growth reached its lowest point since FY09 due to
European crisis. Steel demand in China is expected to grow
by 3.5%, to 668.8m this year and demand in India is
expected to up by 5.9%, to 75.8 this year. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
Gold price (US$/t.oz)
1,900
1,800
1,700
1,600
1,500
1,400
KRAS:
• Continues with US$1.2bn expansion despite poor result.
Krakatau Steel (KRAS) is planning to spend up to US$1.2bn
for a number of ongoing projects despite the declining steel
price. US$500m of its capex would be used to finance
projects for the company and its subsidiaries. The projects
include development of 1.2mt capacity blast furnace with
total investment of US$601.5m, port expansion costing
US$91.6m, 120MW combined cycle power plant with
US$132m in total investment, and a water pipe system
costing Rp66bn. Source: The Jakarta Post.
1,300
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Tins price (US$/ton)
26,000
24,000
22,000
20,000
18,000
16,000
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
ANTM:
• Revise contribution of gold sales. Aneka Tambang (ANTM)
is planning to revise contribution of gold to total sales,
which is from 35% to 25% this year, due to the fluctuation
of gold price. ANTM targets gold sales of 7,601kg this year.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• New smelters to fit in new regulation. Smelter owned by
Aneka Tambang (ANTM) in Tayan, Kalimantan Barat will be
completed by the end of this year. The capacity of the
smelter is 300k ton/year to process bauxite to chemical
grade alumina. The smelter in East Halmahera will be
completed in 2016 to process nickel to ferronickel with
capacity of 27k ton/ year. The other smelter project in
Mempawah, West Kalimantan has 1.2mt capacity per year
to process bauxite to smelter grade alumina. Source:
Investor Daily
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
15

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
BRMS:
• FY12 Financial Result
In US$m FY12 FY11 %Chg FY12E
Sales 22.2 20.8 6.5 22
Operating profit 8.5 3.0 186.2 5
Pretax Profit -67.2 73.7 -191.2 -37
Net income -29.7 78.0 -138.1 -9.3
fund will be used to build old rolled coil factory in Karawang
Timur costing US$100.0m, or increase production of zinc coated
steel and aluminum zinc coated steel costing US$60.0m. The
expansion is done to respond 6.0-7.0% domestic steel demand
per year. Source: Investor Daily
Operating Margin (%) 38.3 14.3 24.0 23.1
Net Margin (%) -133.8 374.1 -507.9 -43.1
Source: Investor Daily
• US$29.7m loss in 2012. BRMS was unprofitable in 2012 as
it posted a US$ 29.7m loss. The financial performance of
BRMS was affected by a declining income contribution of
Newmont Nusa Tenggara, which suffered a net loss of
US$15.1m in 2012. Gold production in Batu Hijau, owned
by Newmont Nusa Tenggara, shrunk to 68,000 ounces in
2012, from 308,000 ounces in 2011. Copper production fell
to 76m pounds in 2012, from 132m pounds in 2011. Source:
Jakarta Globe
• Monetizing BRMS shares. BUMI revealed that last year it
signed a stock loan agreement, in which the company
agreed to lend its shares in BRMS to a number of parties for
12 months. Despite the loaning, any rights and obligations
attached to shares remain in possession of BUMI. PT
Sinartama Gunita owns 50.6%, PT Long Haul Indonesia
owns 12.8%, and several unspecified parties hold about 5%
each to a combined 23.7% shares in BRMS. Source: The
Jakarta Pos
INCO sets aside US$216.0m investment. INCO is planning to
spend up US$216.0m to support its business, higher than the
capex spending last year of US$147.5m and US$38.7m for R&D.
INCO will reach 10.0% YoY increase in production in FY13, from
70,717mt to 77,788mt. Despite higher production, the company
suffered from a drop of 26.0% in selling price, leading to lower
revenue and around 80.0% drop in net profits. Source: The
Jakarta Post
TINS: Target Rp1.0tr of net profit. TINS targets Rp1.0tr of net
profit, increase 132.0% YoY from previous year, which was
Rp431.6bn. This year TINS will sell its assets, which are land
area of 176 hectares in Bekasi and 6000m2 in Bandung. The
assets are worth Rp1.0tr. TINS sets aside Rp1.4tr for capex,
30.0% of its capex will be used for routine expenditure and
70.0% of its capex for purchasing bucket wheel dredge and
company development. TINS will distribute 50.0% dividend of its
net profit, equivalent to Rp42.9/share. Source: Bisnis Indonesia.
BAJA: Right issue 20.0% of its shares. Saranacentral
Bajatama Tbk (BAJA) will right issues 20% of its shares in 3Q13.
The public ownership will increase from 20.0% to 40.0%. The
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that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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16

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
PLANTATION
CPO price
(US$/ton)
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Rubber price (US$/ton)
350
325
300
275
250
225
200
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
point was needed). Lastly, 20.0% of total plantation area for
plasma obligation is to be strengthened, as the current
system is still ineffective. The Indonesian Oil Palm
Association (GAPKI) opposes the acreage limitation, saying
it will hurt the plantation business in the country as
production growth will be impeded. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia, The Jakarta Post
• Moratorium prolonged; Indonesia CPO exports top 5-
year high. Indonesia Minister of Forestry ensures that
deforestation moratorium, which scheduled to end as of
May13, will be prolonged. He claims the regulation has been
able to decrease deforestation pace in the country
dramatically since it first implementation in 2011. Indonesia
Oil Palm Association (GAPKI) strongly opposes the idea,
stating it will disturb plantation industry significantly.
Further, CPO exports from Indonesia surged to the highest
level in Feb13 after China and Pakistan boosted its
purchase due to low prices, as well as increasing demand
during Lunar New Year fesitival. Shipments of CPO and
PKO jumped 9.1% MoM from Jan13 1.9MT, the highest
monthly sales since 2008. Source: The Jakarta Post
• Slowdown in export. Indonesia Oil Palm Association
(Gapki) recorded a weakening in CPO and its derivatives
exports during 1Q13. In Jan13, export topped 2.1m tons,
and down by 14.0% MoM to 1.9m tons in Feb13, while in
Mar13 declined further to 1.7m tons. India remained the
largest importer of Indonesian CPO, purchasing 1.9m tons
(+22.5% YoY) during 3M13, followed by China of 0.6m tons
(+31.0% YoY). Gapki predicts CPO prices during Apr13-
May13 to be around US$830-870/ton. Source: Investor
Daily
175
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector:
• Regulation changes to be launched in April. Permentan
No.26/2007 is currently being revised by the Indonesia
Ministry of Agriculture, with changes in plantation acreage
limits, operating license procedure and plasma
implementation. First, each plantation company group
(same management and/or ownership) is only allowed to
own a maximum of 100,000ha plantation, yet existing
ownerships that have exceeded the new threshold before
this amendment finalized in Apr13 are not subject to any
penalty. Second, an operating license will be effective after
receipt of a recommendation from the state government
(Directorate General of Agriculture) and the award of a
license from local government (previously only the second
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
AALI: US$350.0m capex, 1Q13 profit down 5.7% YoY. Astra
Agro Lestari (AALI) recently announced that it plan to spend
around US$350.0m for capex this year, to be used for
constructing four palm oil mills (expect 2 mills completion by
2013 and the other 2 by 2014) and a refinery. Each mill will cost
around US$15.0m, with 45.0 tons/hour capacity. The company
so far has obtained around US$200.0m loan from 4 banks, and
still seeks for another US$200.0m to fund the capex. As of
1Q13, AALI booked Rp356.4bn net profit, down 5.7% YoY, while
having 5.5% increase in revenue. This was mainly due to lower
ASP despite growth in CPO sales volume. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia, The Jakarta Post, Company
BWPT obtains Rp722.0bn loan. BW Plantation (BWPT) has
obtained Rp722.0bn loan from BNI – Rp622.0bn is for
investment (8 years maturity), while the remaining Rp100.0bn is
for working capital (1 year maturity). Both have 10.0% per
annum interest rate. The company is still looking for another
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
17

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
Rp200.0bn. This year’s capex of Rp1.0tr will be funded through
70% bank loan and 30% internal cash. Source: Investor Daily
GZCO: FY12 Financial Result
In Rpbn FY12 FY11 %Chg FY12E %Dev
Sales 405 493 -17.8 471 -13.9
Gross profit 157 156 0.8 NA NA
Operating profit 103 104 -1.0 103 0.0
Net income 97 167 -41.9 130 -25.6
Gross Margin (%) 38.8 31.6 7.2 NA NA
Operating Margin (%) 25.5 21.2 4.3 22.0 3.5
Net Margin (%) 23.9 33.9 -10.0 27.7 -3.8
Source: Investor Daily
IPO Update: Dharma Satya to raise US$150.0m in 2Q13
Palm oil producer Dharma Satya Nusantara (DSN) plans to raise
US$150.0m through IPO in 2Q13. The company has appointed
Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, BCA Sekuritas, and Ciptadana
as its underwriters. DSN is reported to produce 600,000tons of
palm oil in 2012. Source: The Jakarta Globe
IPO update: Austindo Nusantara Jaya. Austindo Nusantara
Jaya, a plantation company, has recently announced that it will
offer 940.0m shares to public with Rp100.0/share nominal value,
appointing Bahana Securities as the underwriter. 65.7% of funds
collected will be used for subsidiary’s capital expenditure,
including for oil palm planting and mill establishment in West
Kalimantan, land clearing, operating license obtainment, and
new land acquisition. The remaining 23.3%, 8.0% and 3.0% are
to be used for JP Morgan Bank debt repayment, sago mills and
infrastructure development in Papua, electricity generator
establishment in Belitung and working capital, respectively.
Shareholders’ Structure Post IPO
No.of Shares Nominal Value %
(000) (Rp m)
Authorized Capital 12,000,000 1,200,000
PT Memimpin Dengan Nurani 1,343,805 134,380 34.1%
PT Austindo Kencana Jaya 1,343,805 134,380 34.1%
George Santosa Tahija 156,242 15,624 4.0%
Sjakon George Tahija 156,147 15,615 4.0%
Yayasan Tahija 2 0 0.0%
Public 930,600 93,060 23.6%
Employees (ESA) 9,400 940 0.2%
Issued and Fully Paid Capital 3,940,000 394,000 100.0%
Shares in Portaple 8,060,000 806,000
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
IPO update: Austindo to only release 10.0% shares. Austindo
Nusantara Jaya reduced its public shares proportion from 23.9%
to become only 10.0%. The funds collected through IPO shrank
to US$42.0m or equivalent to Rp407.0bn, from prior target of
Rp1.1tr-1.7tr. This was done due to lack of demand from
investors, following the sluggishness of commodity sector this
year. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
The Tentative Agenda
Initial offering period: 15-24 April 2013
Effective date: 30 April 2013
Offering period: 2-3 May 2013
Allotment date: 6 May13
Shares distribution date: 7 May 2013
Share listing date: 8 May 2013
Shareholders’ Structure Pre IPO
No.of Shares Nominal Value %
(000) (Rp m)
Authorized Capital 12,000,000 1,200,000
PT Memimpin Dengan Nurani 1,343,805 134,380 44.8%
PT Austindo Kencana Jaya 1,343,805 134,380 44.8%
George Santosa Tahija 156,242 15,624 5.2%
Sjakon George Tahija 156,147 15,615 5.2%
Yayasan Tahija 2 0 0.0%
Public - - 0.0%
Employees (ESA) - - 0.0%
Issued and Fully Paid Capital 3,000,000 300,000 100.0%
Shares in Portaple 9,000,000 900,000
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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18

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
TELECOMMUNICATION
Mobile-phone users (m people)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
TLKM
ISA T
EXCL
Major Companies
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector Earnings Outlook
FY13F FY14F
Revenue Growth (%) 7.5 6.6
EBITDA Growth (%) 8.0 6.5
EPS Growth (%) 13.5 11.6
EBITDA Margin (%) 49.6 49.6
Net Margin (%) 14.4 15.1
ROE (%) 18.8 19.2
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.2
PER (x) 16.4 14.7
Source: Bloomberg, Kresna Research
Sector:
• Ministry to reset 3G canal. Ministry of Telecommunication
and Communication through its task force, SDPPI, has
arranged the changes to 3G canal, after finishing the
process selecting 3G block for canal 11 and 12. The
regulation underlying is no 31 of 2012 which stated 2.1 GHz
radio frequency band for the provision of IMT-2000 mobile
cellular network. Source: Investor Daily
• Telkomsel, XL, and Indosat to discuss a collaboration.
Three Indonesia biggest cellular operators (Telkomsel,
Indosat, and XL) start to discuss collaboration for their
content service. This collaboration will be beneficial for their
subscribers and partners. The three biggest operator
subscribers are reported to reach 200.0m and this will give
interest for mobile advertising partners. Later, under the
new collaboration, advertisers will just need to contact one
of the three operators and their advertisement will be
distributed among them. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
250
200
150
100
50
-
TLKM:
• TLKM to propose 65.0% DPR. Telkom proposed 65.0%
DPR, rising from last three-year average DPR. The dividend
nominal is predicted to be around Rp8.3tr. Meanwhile, XL
received approval from shareholders to pay out a dividend
of Rp1.2tr, equal to Rp135 per share. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
• Loses bid in Myanmar, still going to Myanmar. Telkom
did not qualify in the pre-qualification mobile license tender
in Myanmar, having failed to meet one requirement.
However, Telkom will still be there, having secured projects
to build telecommunication networks in Myanmar, starting
this year. Source: Jakarta Globe
• Telkomsel net profit increase by 22.0%. Telkomsel
posted a net profit of Rp15.7tr, increasing by 22.0% YoY in
FY12. The company leads the market with 55.0% market
share from the three biggest cellular operator with 125m
subscribers. Meanwhile, Telkomsel raise its 3G BTS by
11,675 units and have more than 15,000 units 3G BTS by
the end of 2012. Source: Investor Daily
• 40% of Total Capex from external financing.
Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) is preparing global and
domestic bonds issue to finance around 40.0% of their total
capex, equivalent to Rp8.0tr in FY13. Telkom’s total capex
for 2013 is expected to be around Rp20.0tr. Another option
considered by Telkom is export credit agency worth of
Rp3.6-5.4tr. Right now, Telkom is considering to split their
stocks with ratio 1:5. After stock split, the share price will be
around Rp2,380. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
EXCL: to spend Rp9.0tr on data boost
XL Axiata plans to set aside Rp9.0tr (US$928m) for capital
expenditure this year. The main expansion focus is to improve
its data business, especially in its 3G network. Lately, XL won an
auction for a new 3G block from the government, for which it
paid Rp512bn. XL’s CFO says the company has secured a
$110m loan from Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ to support
capex financing. Source: Jakarta Globe
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
19

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
CONSUMER, RETAIL AND PHARMACEUTICAL
Retail sales index
160
140
ICBP: 1Q13 Financial Result
In Rpbn 1Q12 1Q13 %Chg FY13E % FY
Sales 5,286 6,057 14.6 23,846 25.4
Gross profit 1,400 1,615 15.3 6,319 25.6
Operating profit 795 853 7.2 3,253 26.2
Net income 591 644 8.9 2,417 26.6
120
100
Gross Margin 26.5 26.7 0.2 26.5 -0.2
Operating Margi 15.0 14.1 -1.0 13.6 -0.4
Net Margin 11.2 10.6 -0.6 10.1 -0.5
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
MYOR: FY12 Financial Result
In Rpbn FY12 FY11 %Chg FY12E %Dev
Sales 10,511 9,454 11.2 11,119 -5.5
Gross profit 2,346 1,658 41.4 2,432 -3.6
Operating profit 1,157 758 52.6 1,119 3.4
Net income 730 471 54.9 687 6.2
80
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Source: Bank Indonesia, CEIC
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Sector:
DNET to acquire ROTI, FAST, and Indomaret. Dyviacom
Intrabumi (DNET) plans to acquire 31.5% Nippon Indosari (ROTI)
shares, 35.8% (Fastfood Indonesia) FAST shares, and 40.0%
Indomaret shares; each amounting to Rp2.1tr, Rp1.9tr, and
Rp2.6tr, respectively. DNET plans to discontinue its IT business
and focus on the investments in consumer goods sector. The
company is to conduct rights issue to fund the acquisitions by
releasing new 14.0bn shares (98.7%), priced at Rp500.0/share.
Total funds collected will be Rp7.0tr, with Rp300.0bn of that to
be used as working capital. Source: Investor Daily
INDF: Rp7.6tr capex this year. Indofood Sukses Makmur
(INDF) budgets Rp7.6tr capex for FY13, up 8.8% YoY from last
year’s Rp6.4tr. Rp3.0tr is for agribusiness division, Rp2.2tr for
ICBP, Rp2.2tr for Bogasari, and Rp200.0bn for distribution
division. Bogasari, which usually contributes 25.0% to total INDF
revenue, is to expand its production facilities and infrastructure,
including establishment of a flour mill that will add its annual
capacity by 5,000-6,000 tons. The company claims that
electricity tariff increase as of 1 Apr13 will not affect its
production costs significantly and hence no or only little impact
in selling prices. Source: Investor Daily
HMSP dividend up 23.3%. This year, HM Sampoerna (HMSP)
is to distribute Rp9.9tr cash dividend (equivalent to
Rp2,269/share) from FY12 net profit, with dividend yield of
2.7%. Total dividend increases by 23.3% YoY from FY11
Rp1,840/share. Source: Kompas
Gross Margin (%) 22.3 17.5 4.8 21.9 0.4
Operating Margin (%) 11.0 8.0 3.0 10.1 0.9
Net Margin (%) 6.9 5.0 2.0 6.2 0.8
Source: Investor Daily
AISA:
• AISA launches Rp900.0bn of bonds. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera
(AISA) is to raise Rp900.0bn from bond sale as an effort to
repay debt (using 83.0% of the proceeds) and finance
expansion; the note offering began yesterday. Conventional
bonds of Rp600.0bn with 5-year maturity carry a coupon
rate of 10.25%, while the remainder will be offered in the
form of Islamic bonds. AISA is to spend Rp800.0bn of
capex this year; some will be used for establishment of rice
mills. Source: The Jakarta Globe
• Profit up 66%. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera (AISA) recorded 66.4%
jump in net profit last year of Rp211.2bn. Its revenue
increased 57.0% to Rp2.8tr, despite below company’s
target of Rp3.0tr. This year, the company is to invest
Rp12.5bn for its dried-noodle production line, raising
capacity by 1,000 tons per month, while targeting Rp5.3tr
revenue. Additional funds for investment will be obtained
through Rp600.0bn conventional bonds and Rp300.0bn
Islamic sukuk bonds. Source: The Jakarta Globe
• AISA plans big spending to boost sales. Tiga Pilar
Sejahtera (AISA) plans to allocate Rp808.9bn capex in order
to achieve 85.0% YoY growth in sales for FY13. According
to management, 45.6% of the capex, equivalent to
Rp369.6bn will be allocated for their rice processing and
distribution business, as AISA is currently constructing two
rice mills in Central Java. Following the completion, AISA’s
production capacity is expected to double, reaching 480K
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20

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
tons per year. The remaining of the budgeted capex will be
used to expand their palm oil business (37.4%) and
consumer food business (17.0%). Source: The Jakarta Post
MPPA net profit doubled. Matahari Putra Prima (MPPA)
recorded net profit of Rp238.5bn last year (EPS: Rp20.0), up by
98.0% YoY or almost double from FY11’s figure of Rp120.3bn.
Revenue grew by 22.0% YoY to Rp10.9tr, with Matahari Food
Division (Hypermart & Foodmart) as the main contributor. Gross
profit topped Rp1.9tr (FY11: Rp1.6tr) with GPM of 17.5%, while
operating profit surged to Rp312.9bn, from FY11’s figure of
Rp101.0bn. Source: Investor Daily
RANC: FY12 Financial Result
In Rpbn FY12 FY11 %Chg FY12E %Dev
Sales 1,077 890 21.0 1,070 0.6
Gross profit 281 237 18.3 278.7 0.8
Operating profit 36 37 -2.8 41 -12.7
Net income 36 22 66.2 36 0.5
Gross Margin (%) 26.1 26.7 -0.6 26.1 0.0
Operating Margin (%) 3.3 4.1 -0.8 3.8 -0.5
Net Margin (%) 3.4 2.5 0.9 3.4 0.0
Source: Investor Daily
AMRT expands ownership in MIDI. Sumber Alfaria Trijaya
(AMRT) has expanded its ownership of MIDI (Midi Utama
Indonesia) from 54.6% to 56.7%. AMRT bought 61.8m shares of
MIDI on 9 Apr13, for Rp48.2bn; previously, it had bought 42.0%
stake in MIDI at a cost of Rp964.4bn in Jan13. This year, AMRT
has prepared Rp1.4tr capex to build 800 new outlets and 5-6
distribution centers, to be sourced from a mix of internal cash
and a bank loan. Source: Investor Daily
FAST: joint-investment scheme for KFC outlets. Fastfood
Indonesia (FAST) remains optimistic about opening 25-30 new
KFC outlets this year, despite having exceeded the threshold
(250 units for single ownership) after the deadline established by
the government. The company may spend up to Rp300.0bn for
the expansion plan, and will be employing a joint-investment
scheme as it currently owns 440 stores. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
TRIS to distribute dividend. Trisula International (TRIS) is to
distribute Rp9.0 dividend per share, or 30.0% of its FY12 net
profit, with 1.9% dividend yield. This year, the company targets
revenue to grow 20% YoY (FY12A: 19%), while net profit is
projected to rise by 14-15%. TRIS has allocated Rp60.0bn
capital expenditure, which Rp40.0bn will be used to acquire new
brands and the remainder for distribution expansion. Source:
Investor Daily
KLBF: 1Q13 net profit up 8.1%. As of 1Q13, Kalbe Farma
(KLBF) posted 8.1% YoY increase in net profit, supported by
16.2% growth in net sales. Prescription drug division sales up by
19.2% YoY to Rp930.0bn, followed by consumer health division
sales which rose 20.1% YoY to Rp577.0bn, nutritional division
sales grew by 22.6% YoY to Rp796.0bn, and distribution
division sales increased by 8.6% YoY – each division
contributed 27.0%, 16.0%, 23.0%, and 34.0% to total 1Q13
revenue, respectively. The company targets this year’s total
sales rise by 15%-18% YoY. Source: The Jakarta Globe
KAEF secures Rp1.0tr loan. Kimia Farma (KAEF) has obtained
Rp1.0tr loan from BRI, Bank Mandiri, and Bank of Tokyo, to be
used to finance the establishment of 2 new plants; this may take
more than 2 years for completion, and KAEF currently is still
looking for further funding sources. It also plans to sell Rp1.0tr
bonds - first series of Rp400.0bn to be issued by 3Q13, and to
conduct a rights issue by selling 1.9bn new shares at
Rp1,000/share – currently awaiting the government’s approval.
Source: The Jakarta Globe
INAF:
• Targets 94.9% net profit growth. Indofarma (INAF) eyes
FY13 net profit to rise by 94.9% YoY to Rp82.6bn, with
targeted revenue growth of 21.7% to Rp1.4tr. The company
needs total investment costs amounting to Rp250.0bn until
FY14, while this year’s capex will be around Rp150.0-
160.0bn, to be used for new plant establishment, capacity
addition, and new equipment purchases. 70.0% of capex
will be sourced from a Bank Mandiri loan, while the
remainder will be sourced from internal cash. Yesterday,
after the AGM, CEO of Indofarma Djakfarudin Yunus was
officially replaced by former Marketing Director Elviano
Rizaldi. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• To distribute Rp4.2bn dividend. Indofarma (INAF) is to
distribute Rp4.2bn dividend (10.0% of FY12 net profit) on 22
May13, with dividend yield of 0.5%. Cum and ex dividend
dates on regular/negotiated market set on 2 and 3 May13,
respectively, while on cash market the dates will be 7 and 8
May13. Last year, INAF booked 14.8% YoY net profit
growth to Rp42.4bn. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
JPFA plans Rp3.9tr expansion. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
(JPFA) plans to invest a total of Rp3.9tr in FY13-14 to expand its
feedstock and DOC production capacity by 34.0% and 19.0%,
respectively. The company states that it is needed to meet
growing demand of chicken meat, which in average up by
15.0% YoY. This year, JPFA plans to utilize Rp1.0tr capex, for
which around 50.0% of funds will be sourced from bank loan.
Source: The Jakarta Globe
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
21

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
IPO news: Electronic City set for IPO. Electronic City
Indonesia plans to raise funds from selling new shares (up to
25.0%) through an IPO, to finance its expansion of new stores.
The company has appointed Danareksa Sekuritas and Credit
Suisse as the underwriters, with expected IPO date by Jun13.
At present, it has 17 stores and 12 outlets spread through Java
and Sumatra. Source: The Jakarta Post
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
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22

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
CEMENT
National cement consumption (m tons)
5.5
2012 2013
5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
5.0
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.4 4.4
4.7
4.5
4.8
4.0
4.1 4.1
4.2
3.5
3.6
3.0
2.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: Indonesia Cement Association (ASI), Kresna Research
Sector:
Cement to reach Rp65.0tr investment by 2017. Up until 2017,
investments in Indonesia’s cement industry will reportedly reach
Rp65.0tr, boosting national cement production to Rp108.7m
tons per year, compared to the 2012 figure of 60.5m tons.
28.0% of new investment will come from newcomers and
foreign investors. Source: Investor Daily.
SMCB:
• To boost capacity by 40.0%. Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) is
reported to be boosting its production capacity by 40.0%
within the next four years, reaching 12.5mt, to meet the
growing demand for building materials in the country.
Further, SMCB is reported to have secured a Rp1.0tr loan to
build its Tuban II plant, equivalent to 34.2% the total funds
required. Source: The Jakarta Globe and Koran Tempo
• To pay Rp48.0 dividend per share. Based on the AGM
result, Holcim Indonesia (SMCB) is reported to be ready to
disburse Rp48.0 dividend per share on 14May13, with a
dividend yield of 1.3%. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
23

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
PROPERTY, CONSTRUCTION & INFRASTRUCTURE
Quarterly Residential Index
154
152
150
148
146
144
142
140
138
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12
Source: CEIC, Kresna Research
Sector:
Construction: Rp72.0bn for construction spending in 1Q13.
The Indonesian Construction Association (AKI) has reported that
up until 1Q13, 18.0% (equivalent to Rp72.0bn) of its total
allocated construction budget for FY13 of Rp400.0bn (+20.0%
YoY) has been absorbed. AKI predicts that construction
spending will increase, starting 2Q13. Further, AKI has also
projected that construction contribution to total GDP will
increase to 11.0-12.0% in FY13, compared to FY12 of 8.0%.
Source: Investor Daily
JSMR: 7.2% growth in toll revenue. Jasa Marga (JSMR) has
reported 7.2% growth in its 1Q13 toll road revenue, to Rp1.4tr,
fueled by 5.0% YoY increase in traffic volume to 299.4m
vehicles. JSMR is optimistic that their target of 20.0% YoY
increase in toll road revenue, to Rp6.5tr in FY13, can be reached
following the commencement of operation of several new toll
roads and a 10.0% tariff increase on the company’s 11 toll
roads. Further, JSMR is reported to be preparing to pay out a
FY12 dividend of Rp94.2 per share, with dividend yield of 1.4%.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
WIKA:
• WIKA hustles Wika Beton’s IPO. Wijaya Karya (WIKA) is
reported to fasten Wika Beton’s IPO this year, from a
previous target of FY14. Wika Beton is reported to be ready
to release 20.0% of company shares, equivalent to Rp1.0tr.
Currently, Wika Beton owns 9 plants, with production
capacity of 2.0mt. Source: Investor Daily
• 1Q13 net profit jumps 65%. Wijaya Karya (WIKA) booked
Rp157.0bn of its net profit for 1Q13, up 65.3% compared to
1Q12. This year, WIKA targets Rp15.4tr of revenue. The
company has signed new contract amounting to Rp20.8tr,
increased by 34.5% compared to 1Q12. WIKA will pay
30.0% dividend of its net profit, equivalent to
Rp22.3/shares, with 1.0% dividend yield. Source: Investor
Daily
WSKT:
• WSKT undisclosed project to Mecca. Waskita Karya
(WSKT), teaming up with Saudi Arabia’s largest construction
company: Saudi Binladin Group (SBG), is reported to secure
the contract for the renovation of Masjidil Haram in Mecca
which will last between 5-10 years. However, WSKT refused
to disclose the details value of the contract. Meanwhile,
WSKT is currently working on Rp23.5tr project in FY13,
reflected in increase of total project value by 62.6% YoY.
Source: The Jakarta Post
• WSKT boosts precast concrete plant. Waskita Karya
(WSKT) is reported to be adding a precast concrete plant in
Sadang (West Java), with a total investment of Rp150.0bn.
The company targets the plant to start operating
commercially sometime this year, with total capacity of
200,000 tons per year. Waskita predicts 10.0-15.0% in
construction cost savings, once the precast concrete plant
goes on line. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
ADHI targets Rp16.8tr contracts in 2013. Adhi Karya (ADHI)
expect to book 60.0% YoY increase in its new contract to
Rp16.8tr in 2013. As of Mar13, ADHI is reported to book 1.8tr
new contract, reaching 11.1% of it FY13 target. Further, ADHI is
reported to seek Rp2.7tr for private 2x55 MW power plant in
Manado. Source: Bisnis Indonesia and The Jakarta Post
PTPP to secure Rp4.5tr contract. Perusahaan Pembangunan
(PTPP) is reported to secure Rp4.5tr contract up until Mar13,
reaching 23.0% of the total FY13 new contract target of
Rp19.7tr. As for FY13, PTPP targets to book 20.0% YoY
increase in net profit to Rp370.0bn. Source: Investor Daily
ASRI to boost its capex to Rp3.2tr. Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI)
plans to boost its capital expenditure by 28.0% to Rp3.2tr, from
an initial budgeted amount of Rp2.5tr for FY13. The funds will be
used for land acquisition and construction of several property
projects. Source: Investor Daily
APLN:
• APLN records 42.0% increase in 1Q13 marketing sales.
Agung Podomoro Land (APLN) posted 42.0% YoY increase
in marketing sales in 1Q13 of Rp1.2tr, with 68.0%
contribution from Podomoro City Extension, reaching
20.0% of company’s FY13 target of Rp6.0tr. Further, APLN
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24

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
also targeted 10.0%-20.0% YoY increase in revenue and
net income for FY13. Source: The Jakarta Globe
• APLN groundbreaking on Pancoran’s project. Agung
Podomoro Land (APLN) had new project in SOHO Pancoran
which offer units with small offices positioned on 7700 sqm
that priced between Rp2,5K and Rp4K per sqm, with floor
size ranging from 93 to 137 sqm. The company is seeking a
10.0% to 15.0% increase in revenue for 2013, as well as
15% to 20% growth in net income. In 2012, the firm’s net
income and revenue is recorded to rose by 38.0% YoY and
23.0% YoY to Rp 812.0bn and Rp 4.7tr, respectively.
Source:Jakarta Globe
cum date of the dividend is expected to be on 15May13, while
the payment date is expected to be on 29May13. The dividend
payout ratio is around 20.0%, with dividend yield of 1.8%.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
IPO news: PPI Ready by 2015. Pelabuhan Indonesia II (Pelindo
II) is reported to be pareparing prepare its subsidiary,
Pengembang Pelabuhan Indonesia, to go public in 2015, an IPO
following the operation of its container terminal in New Priok
(Stage 1), scheduled for 2014. However, the company has not
yet disclosed the amount of funds to be acquired through its
IPO. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
LPKR: Joint venture with Toyota Tsuho Corporation. Lippo
Karawaci (LPKR) is reported to set up a joint venture with Toyota
Tsuho Corporation (TTC) to develop Japanese style hotel
residence in Lippo Cikarang, with total investment of US$11.5m.
Source: Investor Daily
SMRA obtains Rp 600.0bn loan. SMRA (Summarecon Agung)
recently received Rp 600.0bn loan from Bank Mandiri for funding
its capital expenditure. As of FY12, the company has been
searching for Rp 500.0bn credit facility to fund the development
of two hotels in Bali, given the occupancy rate has increased to
90%. Source of funds for the expansion will be a mix from
internal cash and bank loan. Source: Investor Daily
BKSL to buyback Bukit Jonggol Asri. Sentul City (BKSL) is
reported to buyback 20.0% of Bukit Jonggol Asri’s (BJA) shares
from Bakrieland Development (ELTY), with total transaction of
Rp300.0-Rp500.0bn. Currently, ELTY owns 51.0% shares of
BJA, while BKSL owns the remaining 49.0%. BKSL is reported
to finance the buyback through stand-by loan and internal cash.
Source: Investor Daily
CTRP to acquire 7.2ha landbank. Ciputra Property (CTRP) is
reported to acquire 7.2ha landbank in West Jakarta area, with a
total transaction value of Rp1.0tr (equivalent to Rp15.0m per
sqm). As for FY13, CTRP plans to allocate Rp2.0tr; 60.0% of it
will be allocated for Ciputra World 1 & 2 projects, while the
remaining will be used for expansion in Bali. Source: Investor
Daily
ELTY is likely to miss US$155.0m bond payment. Bakrieland
Development (ELTY) has reported that they are unable to pay the
principal and interest of its US$155.0m global bond maturing on
23Mar15. Following the issue, the bondholder earned a put
option right from the bond on 23Mar13. Source: Investor Daily
SSIA: dividend to increase by 170.0% YoY. Surya Semesta
Internusa (SSIA) decided to increase its dividend payment by
170.0% YoY to Rp141.2bn, equivalent to Rp30.0/ share. The
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
25

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
OTHERS
Transportation: Credit Suisse and UBS for Blue Bird IPO.
Blue Bird is reported to have picked Credit Suisse AG and UBS
AG to lead its IPO, aiming to raise at least US$250.0m
(equivalent to 20.0%-40.0% ownership) by mid-FY12. Blue Bird
currently operates 21,000 taxis, and is planning to add about
10,000 more this year. Source: The Jakarta Post
ISSP to record Rp111.2bn net profit. Steel Pipe Industry of
Indonesia (ISSP) is reported to have booked a slight 0.45% YoY
increase in net profit, to Rp111.2bn in 2012, fueled by the
increase in its revenue, of 20.0% YoY, to Rp3.1tr. Source: Bisnis
Indonesia
SCMA and IDKM to merge. Surya Citra Media (SCMA) and
Indosiar Karya Media (IDKM) recently received approval from
their respective shareholders to merge, as part of business
consolidation conducted by Elang Mahkota Teknologi (EMTK) -
parent of both companies. SCMA is to be the surviving entity,
while IDKM will be dissolved and delisted from IDX as of 1
May13. Existing shareholders of IDKM will receive SCMA’s 4.8
shares for every 10 shares they hold, based on Rp1,044/share
and Rp2,171/share appraisal values of IDKM and SCMA,
respectively. Source: The Jakarta Post
VIVA: profit up 177%. Visi Media Asia (VIVA) posted a FY12 net
profit of Rp72.9bn, surging from Rp26.3bn in FY11, while
revenue rose 25.0% YoY to Rp1.2tr. CT Corp is reported to be
interested in buying a stake in VIVA, following Bakrie&Brothers’
plan to include this company as an asset for sale, to pay off
debts. Source: The Jakarta Globe
Lippo Group - Rp1.3tr dividend. Lippo Group is reported to be
preparing a total of Rp1.3tr dividend for its four listed companies
(MPPA, LPKR, LPGI, and MLPL), increased by 480.0% YoY.
MPPA, LPKR, LPGI, and MLPL are reported to be planning to
distribute a dividend of Rp186.0, Rp11.9, Rp90.0, Rp1.0 per
share, respectively. Yield is expected to stand at 9.5%, 0.8%,
3.1% and 0.2% for MPPA, LPKR, LPGI, and MLPL, respectively.
Source: Investor Daily
BNBR: Net profit drops 93.4%. Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR)
booked Rp5.9bn in net profit for 1Q13, plummeting by 93.4%
compared to 1Q12. The shrinkage of net profit is the result of
revenue of Bakrie Petroleum International Pte Ltd. declining by
99.96%, from Rp6.3tr to Rp2.4bn. The cost of revenue also fell
by 90.5%, from Rp6.6tr in 1Q12 to Rp626.0bn in 1Q13. Gross
profit was down by 47.6%, from Rp448.8bn to Rp235.0bn.
Source: Bisnis Indonesia
Lippo Group subsidiaries eye IPO. PT Multipolar Technology,
PT Bank National Nobu and PT Siloam Internasional will conduct
an IPO: PT Multipolar Technology and PT Bank National Nobu
plan to be listed by the end of this first semester, with funds to
be used to strengthen paid-in capital. Lippo Group has
appointed PT Ciptadana Securities as the underwriter. Target
funds from IPO of Multipolar and Bank Nobu will amount to less
than Rp1tr and Rp800bn, respectively. Source: KoranTempo
TAXI:
• TAXI to operate 15,000 units taxi by 2015. Express
Transindo Utama (TAXI) is reported to be ready to expand
its business by lunching 15,000 new taxis in 2015, while this
year alone the company targets to reach 10,000 units.
Further, TAXI reported that they have completed the
acquisition of Express Mulia Kencana (EMK), a company
which possesses an operational license for 2,000 regular
taxis, for a total of Rp67.0bn. Source: Bisnis Indonesia
• TAXI targets a fatter market share. Express Transindo
Utama (TAXI) aims for its market share to increase to 15.0-
20.0% in FY13, from a current market share of 10.2%,
following the increase of company’s number of fleet. As for
2013, TAXI is reported to add 2,000 vehicles, reaching a
total of 10,000. Further, the company is also reported to be
increasing its number of taxi pools to 26-27, from the
current 22. Source: Koran Tempo
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
26

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
CALENDAR EVENTS: MAY 2013
Date
1
2
D e s c r i p t i o n
EGM: SAME, TRST; ECO US: MBA Mortgage Applications, ISM
Manufacturing; ECO EU: PMI Manufacturing; ECO CH: Manufacturing
PMI; ECO ID: CPI
EGM: BHIT, BNII, MAYA ; ECO US: FOMC Rate Decision, Initial Jobless
Claims; ECO EU: ECB Announces Interest Rates
3 EGM: GEMS, MITI; ECO US: Unemployment Rate, Factory Orders
6
EGM: BBCA, GLOB, PTRO; ECO EU: PMI Services, PMI Composite;
ECO ID: GDP
7 EGM: AISA, BAEK, SKBM; ECO US: Trade Balance, Unemployment Rate;
8
EGM: APLN, BBKP, EPMT, INTA, MBSS; ECO US: MBA Mortgage
Applications; ECO CH: Exports, Imports
9 EGM: BIPP; ECO US: Initial Jobless Claims; ECO CH: CPI
10 EGM: AKKU, BDMN, CEKA, PEGE; ECO US: MBA Mortgage Applications;
13 ECO US: Advance Retail Sales; ECO CH: Industrial Production
14
15
16
17
EGM: AKRA, ASDM, GTBO, INTP, MKPI; ECO ID: Bank Indonesia
Reference Rate
EGM: ACES, CPIN, INDY, MIRA, MREI, OCAP; ECO US: MBA Mortgage
Applications, Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production; ECO EU:
Euro-Zone GDP, Euro-Zone CPI
EGM: ASRM, BFIN, DSSA, MTLA, SUPR, WIIM; ECO US: CPI, Initial
Jobless Claims, Housing Starts
EGM: ADMF, CPDW, HRUM, KPKG, PGLI; ECO US: U. of Michigan
Confidence
20 EGM: KLBF, PTSN, VOKS
21 EGM: ATPK, CASS, FORU, MCOR, SKLT, SQBB, UNVR
22
23
24
EGM: APLI, BIMA, ICON, SHID, SMDR, TIRA; ECO US: MBA Mortgage
Applications, Existing Home Sales
EGM: KRAS; ECO US: Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales; ECO EU:
PMI Manufacturing, PMI Services, PMI Composite
EGM: CTTH, DNET, KDSI, KKGI, LSIP, META, MYOH, PYFA, SIMP,
TSPC; ECO US: Durable Goods Orders
27 EGM: ESSA, PUDP, TPIA
28
29
30
31
EGM: BBLD, BISI, CTRA, CTRP, CTRS, MLIA; ECO US: Consumer
Confidence
EGM: GEMA, ICBP, INDF, PSAB, RALS; ECO US: MBA Mortgage
Applications
EGM: BSDE, BRNA, BRPT, DLTA, DUTI, EKAD, ERAA, PALM, PLIN, TELE;
ECO US: GDP QoQ (Annualized), Initial Jobless Claims
EGM: AMFG, DEWA, HERO, PBRX, PTIS; ECO US: Personal Income,
Personal Spending, U. of Michigan Confidence; ECO EU: Euro-Zone
Unemployment Rate
Source: Bloomberg, IQPlus, Kresna Research
Kresna Securities may seek to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should therefore be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest
that could affect objectivity of this report. Hence, this report should form as one of many others factors in making investment decisions. PLEASE SEE ANALYST
CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS REPORT
27

Monthly Bulletin
MAY 2013
DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
This report has been produced by PT Kresna Graha Sekurindo Tbk (Kresna Securities), Indonesia.
Definition of ratings :
BUY = stock return* > 10% over the next 12 months
HOLD = stock return* -10% to 10% over the next 12 months
SELL = stock return*