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California: El Niño events are infamous for bringing greatly increased amounts
of precipitation resulting in disastrous flooding, especially in the January to March
timeframe. However, impacts to the winds are less obvious. In El Niño years, the jet
stream tends to split with the storm track dipping more southward than in typical
winters. This split weakens the strength of storms, resulting in plenty of precipitation,
but less storm-driven wind.
After analyzing data from the last several years across the iKitesurf.com weather
network, an interesting pattern emerges regarding El Niño winters. San Francisco winds
tend to be generally weaker across the central coast, Bay, and Delta, due to cooler,
cloudy, and rainier weather. However, springtime winds, especially across the Bay,
begin to ramp up faster than normal. For instance, over the last three El Niño events
at 3rd Ave. Channel (see Graph), the month of April has had 21 to 28 days in which the
peak afternoon wind average was over 20 knots. Meanwhile, in non-El Niño years, the
number of times in which the winds reached over 20 knots was only in the teens.
The impact of El Niño to southern California also tends to weaken winter winds. This
is because of slightly cooler than normal weather and increased cloud cover that
accompany additional rainy days. As a result, there are less thermal wind days.
El Niño is likely to bring a wet winter with
more clouds and cooler days, resulting in
less of a chance for solid winds. However,
El Niño winters generally lend themselves
to a faster strengthening of springtime
winds (April/May) across the San Francisco
Bay (especially the Central Bay and
Peninsula sites). Additionally, during El Niño
winters the Sierra Nevada typically receive
abnormally heavy snows, making for great
snowkiting conditions.
Texas: El Niño brings abnormal amounts of rainfall to the Gulf Coast, especially to
south Texas. In fact, over the last century, rainfall during El Niño events has been nearly
double that of non-El Niño winters. The increased rainfall means more clouds and
generally cooler weather. Since Texas beaches are largely dependant on thermallydriven
sea breezes for winds, it is easy to see how El Niño tends to impact the region
with lower winds. This impact is particularly notable in the early spring months (late
February to April). For example, over the last 10 years, South Padre Island has seen 20-
25 days where winds peak at over 20 knots in the month of April in non-El Niño years.
However, in El Niño years, April has usually only seen 14-16 days where winds reached
above 20 knots.
El Niño:
By Benjamin Miller, Ikitesurf.com Meteorologist
Blessing or Curse for Winter Kiting?
El Niño has been the scapegoat of weather phenomena for years. In fact, the Peruvian
fishermen who are credited with discovering El Niño in the early 1500’s viewed it as
a curse. And not without reason, for the arrival of El Niño marks the beginning of an
extended period of poor fishing for these generally productive waters. More recently,
climatologists and meteorologists have recognized that El Niño brings many abnormal
and adverse weather conditions to North American winters as well. Most well known are
the destructive floods across California and the unusually warm temperatures across the
Northern Rockies and Plains. But El Niño has been linked to many more subtle effects
too. Just how will it impact your winter kiting plans?
WHAT IS EL NIÑO?
Put simply, El Niño is a disruption in typical ocean and atmosphere interactions. Ordinarily,
easterly trade winds keep the warmer surface water piled up across Indonesia and north
Australia, while cooler water upwells along the South American coast. However, this buildup of
water can only last so long before the warmer surface water beings to propagate eastward. This
sets off a series of shallow ocean waves called Kelvin waves, which help to transport the warmer
water toward Peru and Ecuador. Once the warmer water arrives along South America it begins to
spread northward and southward and impacts to North American weather patterns become more
prominent. The biggest impacts are generally in the winter and spring months.
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Hawaii: During El Niño winters, the North Pacific High dips farther
southward than in ordinary winters resulting in a weakening of the
northeast trade winds that prevail across the Hawaiian Islands.
Because of the sagging North Pacific High, the jet stream is able
to dip farther southward as well. This tends to allow storms to get
closer to the islands. These storm systems don’t bring much rainfall
(moisture gets shoved eastward and drought is a common problem
in Hawaii during El Niño winters), but they do bring bigger than
normal waves to the North Shore and stronger stints of northeast to
northwest winds.
What adds considerable uncertainty to any extended forecast is that
not all El Niño’s are created equal. However, preliminary data from
the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) buoy network and the majority
of El Niño climate models indicate we’re in for a moderate El Niño
for the 2009/2010 season. So, in general, the effects this season
should be a bit muted compared to a strong El Niño year.
El Niño will likely impact Hawaii with weaker than normal
northeast trade winds, but stronger stints of winds from passing
storm systems. El Niño brings cooler air temperatures and less
thermal-driven wind.
Will this year’s El Niño give you more or fewer days on the water this year?
Photo Andrew Schwarz
Baja: iKitesurf.com meteorologist Mike Godsey has spent
several winters in Baja and reports that the more southerly storm
track of El Niño winters results in two significant impacts. First,
Baja experiences cooler air temperatures and more cloudy days,
meaning fewer moderate, or even mild, thermally-driven wind
days. Second, the more active winter weather pattern, coupled
with the more southerly position of the Four Corners high, results
in a greater frequency of El Norte wind days, which typically
lasts three to eight days. With the more active El Niño-driven
storm track, these events will likely be more in the three to five
day range. However, one other factor is that the North Pacific
High is generally farther south during El Niño winters somewhat
negatively affecting the El Norte wind. As northwest winds come
off the North Pacific High, they tend to drive the north-northeast
El Norte winds farther from shore. In general, look for kiting
conditions to be more challenging as stronger winds tend to
remain away from the beaches.
Baja’s famed El Norte wind is often more frequent during El Niño
but other factors during this weather pattern can make these
winds more gusty and unsettled near shore.
El Niño brings abnormally wet winters to the Gulf Coast. This is particularly noticeable
in south Texas. With cloudier and cooler days, solid days of wind will be fewer and
farther between. This is especially true in the early spring when the more solid sea
breezes are generally slower to return compared with non-El Niño years.
Florida: Impacts from El Niño on the Sunshine State are similar to the rest of the Gulf
Coast region. Florida sees more precipitation during El Niño versus a non-El Niño winter.
However, climate data reveals an interesting trend. Temperatures actually tend to remain
above normal through mid-January. So, although El Niño brings additional rainfall and
generally more clouds, winds tend to remain comparable to non-El Niño winters, at least
through mid-January. Then, temperatures tend to cool and thermally-driven sea breezes
weaken a bit. Springtime winds (mainly March and April) during El Niño years have been
historically a bit weaker across Florida. The lower wind impacts are greater for the Gulf
Coast beaches than the Atlantic Coast.
El Niño brings increased precipitation, but tends to impact the winds mainly in the
spring. Effects seem to be fairly small for the Atlantic Coast, but greater for the Gulf
Coast. If you’re planning to go kiting during spring break, I’d say stick to the central or
south Florida coast.
CONCLUSION: El Niño is an irregular event that varies in intensity with each occurrence.
Wind is driven and effected by countless mechanisms both large and small scale and El
Niño is just one such mechanism. To say that El Niño will specifically cause or prevent a
windy day is beyond any forecaster’s skill. Your best bet for maximizing your water time is
to monitor the forecasts, wind trends, and real-time data for your favorite areas.
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