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The CTCZ Programme 

MONSOON-2012 

IOPs & Advisory Reports 

CTCZ/rept/2012/02 

C. S. Tomar, Y. Kalyan Chakravarthy, Swati Shewale, D. Joardar, 

B.K.Bandyopadhyay, D.R.Sikka, Ajit Tyagi, S.C.Bhan, L.S. Rathore, 

H.R.Hatwar, M.Mohapatra, B.P.Yadav, Charan Singh, Suman Goyal, 

Kamaljit Ray, Bikram Singh, S. K. Roy Bhowmik, D.R.Pattanaik, 

Kuldeep Srivastav, Kailash Bindwar, Abhijit Sarkar 

CTCZ Programme Office 

Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences 

Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru 

With support from 

The Ministry of Earth Sciences 

Government of India, New Delhi


MONSOON-2012 

IOPs & Advisory Reports 

C. S. Tomar 1 , Y. KalyanChakravarthy 3 , SwatiShewale 3 , D. Joardar 1 , B.K.Bandyopadhyay 1 , 

D.R.Sikka 1 , AjitTyagi 2 , S.C.Bhan 1 , L.S. Rathore 1 , H.R.Hatwar 3 , M.Mohapatra 1 , B.P.Yadav 1 , 

CharanSingh 1 , SumanGoyal 1 , KamaljitRay 1 , BikramSingh 1 , S. K. Roy Bhowmik 1 , 

D.R.Pattanaik 1 , Kuldeep Srivastav 1 ,KailashBindwar 1 , Abhijit Sarkar 4 , G.S.Bhat 3 

1.India Meteorological Department 

2. Ministry of Earth Sciences 

3. Indian Institute of Science 

4. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 

CTCZ/rept/2012/02


CTCZ IOPs and Advisory Reports 

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 

MINISTRY OF EARTH SCIENCES 

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA 

C. S. Tomar 1 , Y. Kalyan Chakravarthy 3 , Swati Shewale 3 , D. Joardar 1 , 

B.K.Bandyopadhyay 1 , D.R.Sikka 1 , Ajit Tyagi 2 , S.C.Bhan 1 , L.S. Rathore 1 , H.R.Hatwar 3 , 

M.Mohapatra 1 , B.P.Yadav 1 , Charan Singh 1 , Suman Goyal 1 , Kamaljit Ray 1 , Bikram Singh 1 , 

S. K. Roy Bhowmik 1 , D.R.Pattanaik 1 , Kailash Bindwar 1 , Abhijit Sarkar 4 

1.India Meteorological Department 

2. Ministry of Earth Sciences 

3. Indian Institute of Science 

4. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 

1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

The “Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ)” is a multi-disciplinary nationally 

co-ordinated monsoon research programme. The CTCZ-Scientific Steering Committee set up a 

Field Phase Weather Advisory Group, whose main task was to keep a watch on the development 

of daily weather situation over the CTCZ area of interest during July –September 2012 and advise 

the various participating agencies on the nature of observations required to be taken by them on 

day to day basis. Weather summaries issued during the field phase are put together in this report. 

The report gives a glimpse of prevailing and expected synoptic conditions along with the IOPs 

declared. 

For preparing the weather summary, daily inputs were received from operational and other 

organizations including IMD, NCMRWF, INCOIS, IAF, Indian Navy and others. Several 

individual scientists also provided useful inputs. The CTCZ Programme Office would like to thank 

the Ministry of Earth Sciences and all those who participated and provided active support to the 

Field Advisory Office set up at IMD for the field phase of CTCZ 2012, a partial list of which 

includes, 

1. Dr. L.S.Rathore, Director General of Meteorology, IMD 

2. Shri.D.R Sikka, Co-Chair 

3. AVM (Retd.) Dr. Ajit Tyagi, Co-Chair 

4. Shri.B.K.Bandyopadhyay, DDGM(s), NWFC, IMD 

5. Dr.H.R.Hatwar, Member, IISc Bangalore 

6. Dr.M.Mohapatra, Scientist –E, Director CWD, IMD, New Delhi 

7. Shri.B.P.Yadav, Scientist-E, Cheif Forecaster, NWFC 

8. Shri Charan Singh, Scientist-D, NWFC 

9. Shri Bikram Singh, Scientist-D, NWFC 

10. Numerical Weather Prediction Group, IMD, New Delhi 

11. Dr. Abhijit Sarkar, Scientist-D, NCMRWF 

12. Shri. Kailash Bindwar, Meterologist, Radar Unit, IMD, New Delhi 

13. Mrs. Suman Goyal, Scientist -E, Satellite Meteorology Division, IMD, New Delhi 

14. Representatives, Indian Air Force 

15. Representatives, Indian Navy. 

2

PREFACE 

The large-scale rainfall over the Indian region during the summer monsoon is associated 

with a region of low level convergence and moist convection over the subcontinent termed 

continental tropical convergence zone (CTCZ). The variation of monsoon rainfall is linked to the 

space-time variation of the CTCZ. The field programme acronymed CTCZ, is a monsoon research 

programme planned for implementation under the Indian Climate Research Program. The overall 

objective is to understand the mechanisms leading to space-time variation of the CTCZ and the 

embedded monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon. CTCZ programme is multiinstitutional, 

with major contributions from the Ministry of Earth Sciences (and its 

organizations/institutes), Department of Science and Technology, Department of Space (and its 

organizations/institutes), Indian Air Force, Indian Navy as well as scientific institutions such as the 

National Institution of Oceanography, IISc, IITs and universities. A pilot phase for CTCZ (CTCZ- 

Pilot) was carried out in 2009 followed by another one in 2011. 

A main field phase of CTCZ was carried out during the monsoon season of 2012 using 

relevant resources available in the country. Since a large component of the observational 

programme is land-based, the India Meteorological Department, with its existing stations, recently 

installed network of AWSs, ARGs, DWRs, high resolution radiosondes along with its satellites, 

played the lead role in collecting data during the CTCZ field phase. Two major ships of MoES 

namely ORV Sagar Kanya (NCAOR, Goa) and RV Sagar Nidhi (NIOT Chennai) were deployed 

over the Bay of Bengal for a month during July-August. ISRO's IGBP Programme is providing 

extensive data on aerosols. NRSC will provide satellite derived land surface and soil moisture data. 

INCOIS has made available the ocean data in the region. The Indian Air Force and Indian Navy 

have also actively participated and provided their data relevant to CTCZ. The flux towers installed 

under the STORM project contributed towards collecting boundary layer data very useful for the 

CTCZ objectives. Megha-Tropiques satellite will provide data on clouds, water vapour, vertical 

profiles of humidity. 

With active contributions from many organizations, groups and individuals, a large volume 

of data has been collected during the 2012 monsoon. INCOIS is hosting the CTCZ Data Centre, 

and data are made available to authorized users. While analysing the data, knowledge of the 

synoptic conditions becomes essential. This report has been written in order to provide the weather 

summaries issued during the field phase to the research community working on objectives related 

to CTCZ. 

January 2013 

Authors 

3

Date: 2 nd July 2012 

Synoptic Features based on 0830 hours IST 

Time: 1730hrs IST 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persists. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over northeast Arabian Sea off Maharashtra and Gujarat 

coasts now lies between 1.5 to 5.8 Km above mean sea level. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of 

north coastal Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal persists and extends upto mid tropospheric 

levels tilting southwest wards with height. 

‣ The trough at mean sea level now runs from Punjab to Northwest Bay of Bengal across 

Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand. 

‣ The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Lat. 21° N/Long. 60° E, 

Lat. 21° N/Long. 65° E, Veraval, Navsari, Malegaon, Betul, Jabalpur, Sidhi, Varanasi, 

Gorakhpur and Lat. 28 ° N/Long. 83° E. Conditions are favourable for further advance of 

the southwest Monsoon into remaining parts of Madhya Maharashtra, some more parts of 

Gujarat State and Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours. 

Rainfall during past 24-hours ending at 0830hours IST of date: 

Rainfall has occurred at many places over Maharashtra, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Goa, 

Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and coastal Andhra Pradesh; at a few places over west 

Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Assam and Tripura and at one or two places over Himachal 

Pradesh, Uttarakhand, north Haryana, south Rajasthan, Bihar, Gujarat, east Madhya Pradesh, 

Telangana, Rayalaseema, Tamilnadu, interior Karnataka, West Bengal & Sikkim, Manipur and 

Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh. Weather remained mainly dry over rest parts of the country. The 

chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm or more) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Agumbe14, 

Ratnagiri and Dibrugarh8 each, Mangalore (Bajpe)7, Dehradun, Rajkot, Mangalore(SCZ), Cannur, 

Jalgaon, Champa and Thrissur6 each, Valparai, Nagpur, Kalingapatnam, Kochi and 

Bhubaneshwar5 each, Phulbani, Hirakud, Sambalpur, Vengurla, Punalur and Madikari4 each and 

Kailashahar, Kurnool, Panjim, Shajapur, Gopalpur, Karwar, Alleppy, Nedumbassery, Jorhat, 

Kottayam and Shimla3 each. 

Satellite Inference: 

Kalpana-1 cloud imagery shows convective clouds over northwest adjoining west central Bay of 

Bengal, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa Chhattisgarh, south Madhya Pradesh south 

Rajasthan adjoining Gujarat, north Konkan and Kerala. 

General Inference and Large Scale Features: 

After prolonged hiatus between 21 st June to 1 st July 2012 Monsoon has shown some advancement 

of about 5° over east UP and east MP and conditions have become favourable for further 

advancement. Upper air circulation developed over Bay of Bengal adjoining Orissa and formation 

of Monsoon trough upto east UP favours the condition. 

Monsoon cloud band which was not well organised prior to 28 th June has become more organised 

along Arabian Sea along 12° N/75° E and over Bay of Bengal near 16°N/90°E. Bay of Bengal 

parts was more organised but it did not touched east coast of India. On 1 st July Arabian Sea parts 

was near 13°N/75°E. Bay of Bengal band was very well organised and was extended upto 

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18°N/80°E. On 2 nd July Arabian Sea component has moved upto 18-19° N/70° E and it also 

extended westward. Bay of Bengal band moved west of 90°E and it was well organised over 

Orissa but its further westward movement is restricted. 

Important aspect is that the tropical West Pacific which is absolutely clear and monsoon band 

appears to be organised over Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and even over Southeast Asia. Although 

cloud band is upto about 18°N over Ocean the condition are suppressed across land parts of India. 

IMD GFS Model (850 hPa) 24hrs forecast shows a weak circulation over Orissa and easterly flow 

across Gnagatic plains reaching upto 80°E. 48hrs forecast shows that circulation has moved 

northward and same for forecast for 72hrs also. The easterly flow has not penetrated beyond 80E 

and contrary northwestward flow has become stronger in 72-96hrs forecast. At 500hPa, east-west 

oriented shear line which was well organised in 2 nd July analysis also shows disorganisation in 72- 

96hrs forecast. And at 200hPa, Tibetan anti-cyclone is near 100°E but it was stronger on easterly 

side and westerly flow is still dominated over northwest India. Also stronger easterly exists 

between Bhubaneswar and Kolkata, which are usually not favourable for monsoon. Similar 

situation prevailing upto 96hrs forecast. 

Inference based on all above observations is that monsoon may remain weak over central India and 

may not penetrate Northwest India in next 72 to 96hrs (5 th - 6 th July2012). 

Intensive Observation Period (IOP): Considering the current observations, no IOP is declared. 

850hPa 00 UTC wind analysis from IMD-GFS, UKMO, WRF & 0600 UTC INSAT Satellite Imagery. 

2 July 2012. 

5

Date: 6 th July 2012 



‣ Monsoon trough is well formed extending from Punjab to East central Bay of Bengal. 

‣ Pressure difference between Mumbai and Trivandrum is 4mb. 

‣ Isobaric difference is strong (8mb) between Goa and Ahmadabad. 

‣ In Arabian Sea between 8 0 N -20 0 N pressure difference is 6mb. 

‣ There are 2-3 upper air cyclonic circulations in monsoon trough region over Jharkhand, 

east MP and Punjab. 

‣ Wind speed over western Arabian Sea to Central Arabian Sea is about 50Kts. 

‣ The Southwest Monsoon has further advanced into some more parts of Gujarat region, 

east Rajasthan; most parts of Uttar Pradesh; some parts of Haryana and Punjab and in 

remaining parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. 

‣ The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) passes through Lat 22.0°N/ Long. 60.0° E, Lat 

22.0°N/ Long. 65.0°E, 22.0°N/ Long. 68.0°E, Jamnagar, Ahmadabad, Jaipur, Aligarh, 

Chandigarh and Amritsar. 

‣ Conditions are favourable for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into some more 

parts of Gujarat state, Rajasthan, Haryana (including Delhi) and Punjab and in 

remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh during next 2-3 days. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, 

Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal & Sikkim, Konkan & Goa and northeastern 

states; at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and coastal Karnataka; at a few places 

over Jammu & Kashmir, east Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada and north 

Andhra Pradesh and at one or two places over Punjab, Haryana, interior Karnataka, south Andhra 

Pradesh and Tamilnadu. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and more) recorded at 0830 hours IST 

of today are: Cooch Behar26, Jabalpur20, Karipur15, Cherrapunji14, Rajnandgaun13, Bramhapuri 

and Siliguri11 each, Jalpaiguri10, Hirakud and Balasore9 each, Balurghat, Paradeep, Bhira, 

Baripada and Dhubri7 each, Digha, Guwahati and Goalpara6 each, Chandbali, Allahabad, 

Chandrapura, Shivpuri and Champa5 each and Haldia, Mumbai (Scz), Varanasi, Yeotmal, 

Ramagundam, Rewa, Jaipur, North Lakhimpur and Contai4 each 


On 5 th July, in Satellite picture there was a east-west band over sub- Himalayan region 

which has moved southward on 6 th July. Other monsoon cloud band around 20-22 0 N persists. 

Whereas west Pacific and South China Sea is mostly clear. Also there is no influence of WD over 

North West India and Pakistan. On the contrary the convective clouding in the southern 

hemispheric equatorial zone had developed into 3-4 clusters. 

NWP Guidance: 

At 850hPa pressure patterns are almost similar up to 96hrs (10July). The strength of low 

level Jet is maintained over west Arabian Sea. Monsoon trough is maintained over north Gangetic 

plains and slightly north of normal position up to 96hrs forecast. Cyclonic circulation which exists 

over Jharkhand is persisting up to 9 th July and appeared to strengthen on 10 th July with slight 

6

westward movement. Easterly flow to the north of monsoon trough is sustained up to UP only. 

At 700mb a marked shear line exists along 22 0 N which is also marked in the forecast charts 

up to 10 th July. To the north of shear line over North West India a marked ridge is being 

forecasted. And it is more marked on 9 and 10 th July. 

At 200mb the secondary maxima in the easterly flow over Odisha has disappeared and now 

maxima lies between Trivandrum and Chennai. This is also maintained in forecast charts up to 10 th 

July. The noticeable feature is the appearance of sub-tropical westerlies up to south Tibet. 

However sub-tropical anticyclone which was over central China is showing weakening. There is 

no westerly trough between 60 0 E to 80 0 E. However the westerlies at 200mb prevailing up to Delhi 

are somewhat weaker. Cross equatorial flow (north easterly) is marked over Bay of Bengal. 

As per the WRF model forecast rainfall may extend up to Delhi on 8 th July but not 

sustaining as the easterly flow weakens. 

Data Monitoring: 

Buoy data: Buoy data over Bay of Bengal suggest that although SST‟s are high but there is 

no SST gradient. Arabian sea SST‟s are pretty warm off Mumbai 29 0 C and 28 0 C over south west 

Arabian sea. 

Date 

RS/RW Data: 

Total 

Stations 

Total ascent taken 

at 00 UTC 

Total No. of 

GPS stations 

No. of GPS 

stations 

Above 

100hPa 

No. of Non GPS 

stations 

Above 100hPa 

05 th July 36 19 9 8 6 14 

06 th July 36 20 9 5 7 12 

Total No. of stations 

Above 100hPa 

Aerosol Data (Sky Radiometer): Nine stations have reported in monsoon region. Jodhpur 

and New Delhi are reporting high values greater than 1.0 and Varanasi has reported less than 0.8 

from 2 nd July onwards. 


Circulation changes in the forecast charts suggest that cloud patches will exist south of 

monsoon trough up to 80 0 E and its further penetration beyond 75 0 E may not take place in next 3-4 

days. Monsoon may remain active over Chhattisgarh, east MP, east UP & south Gujarat. Rainfall 

over entire west coast will be sustained. 

Intensive Observation Period (IOP): 

Considering the current observations, no IOP is declared. 

7

850hPa 00 UTC wind analysis from IMD-GFS, UKMO, WRF & 0600 UTC INSAT Satellite 

Imagery. 06 July 2012. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

8




‣ Monsoon has advanced practically over whole India except North Gujarat and West 

Rajasthan. 

‣ Monsoon trough is marked and well positioned from Rajasthan to North East Bay of 

Bengal. 

‣ Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and 

neighbourhood, a low pressure area has formed over northwest Madhya Pradesh and 

adjoining south Uttar Pradesh. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 2.1 kms 

a.s.l. 

‣ Pressure gradient between Mumbai (1002.3mb) and Trivandrum (1007.6mb) is 5.3mb. 

Pressure gradient over BoB is about 5mb. 

‣ Low level winds over Western and central Arabian Sea is 50-55kts and are quiet 

extensive. Their orientation is towards Kerala. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation now lies over coastal Orissa and neighbourhood and 

extends upto Midtropospheric levels. 


Rainfall is well distributed from North east to North West India all along Bangladesh, Orissa, 

Chhattisgarh, Gangetic plains, up to Himachal Pradesh. But it is missing over Haryana and Punjab. 

Although there was good rainfall over west coast from 6 th -9 th July but amounts are decreasing. On 

the whole large no of stations in India have reported rain but no. of stations reporting heavy 

rainfall have decreased. On 6 th & 7 th July rainfall was above normal and on 8 th July it has came 

down. There was a gradual rise between 3 rd -7 th July. In the monsoon zone of central India rain 

have increased between 6 th &7 th July and on 8 th July it is just normal. Rainfall has occurred at most 

places over Uttar Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh; at any places over Himachal Pradesh, west 

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Gujarat region, Andaman 

& Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Orissa, West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, 

Nagaland, Manipur & Tripura and coastal Andhra Pradesh; at a few places over , Uttarakhand, east 

Rajasthan, Bihar, Telangana and Meghalaya and at one or two places over Punjab, Jharkhand, 

interior Karnataka, Saurashtra, coastal Tamilnadu, Jharkhand and Rayalaseema. Weather remained 

mainly dry over remaining parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall recorded at 0830 

hours IST of today are (4 cm and above): Majbat and Burdwan10 each, Mayabandar9, Pasighat8, 

Bareilly, Mana, Rangia, Datia7, Narsapur, Panambur and Raipur6 each, Haldia, Portblair, 

Daltonganj, Diamond Harbour, Udgir, Fursatganj, Rajnandgaon and Malanjkhand5 each, Churu, 

Vijayawada, Itanagar, Jabalpur, Orai and Shajanpur4 each. 


The convective cloud band was well formed on 7 th & 8 th July between 20 0 -25 0 N. Today the 

main Cloudiness is in the vicinity of the low pressure area. However the cloudiness off Kerala 

coast has increased. 

Radar Inference: 

Monsoon set over Delhi on the evening of 6 th July. Radar images shows convective cells 

9

moving from Northwest to south east direction from 0800UTC onwards and major cells between 

1100-1200 UTC. The cells formed at the edge of easterly flow in the Northwest of Delhi then 

move towards southeastwards under the influence of strong upper air winds. 

NWP Guidance: 

At 925mb: Monsoon trough which was well positioned on 7 th July has tendency to move slowly 

towards foot hills particularly over central and eastern parts of India and forecast up to 13 th July 

shows tendency to persist. 

At 850mb: Over Arabian Sea the core of low level Jet is shifting southwards towards Kerala and 

also showing weakening. 

At 200mb: Westerlies over Delhi are showing some weakening. Westerlies also existing over 

south Tibet and have same tendency persisting up to 12 th July. So upper tropospheric circulation 

are not supporting the sustained activity of monsoon. 

Rainfall Forecast: Shows increasing rain close to foot hills and increase of rainfall over west 

coast and Tamilnadu. They are all indicative of weak monsoon in the next 3-4 days. Over BoB 

there is only light rainfall in forecast charts up to 13 th July. 

Data Monitoring: 

Bay of Bengal: only seven buoys have reported out of which three have reported SST. One 

buoy data is suspected. 

Arabian Sea: only six buoys have reported out of which four have reported SST. 

No. Of Buoys reported No. Of Buoys reporting SST SST 

Bay of Bengal 7 3 28 

Arabian Sea 6 4 28 

Indian Ocean (0-5 0 N) 4 3 29 

RS/RW Data: 

Date 

09 th 

July 

Total Total ascent Total No. of No. of GPS No. of Non Total No. of 

Stations taken at 00 GPS Stns stations GPS stations stations Above 

UTC 

Above 

100hPa 

Above 

100hPa 

100hPa 

36 19 10 6 3 9 

Aerosol Data (Sky Radiometer): Not available 


Monsoon will remain weak for next 3-4 days and over North BoB cloudiness will be subdued. 


10

850hPa 00 UTC wind analysis from IMD-GFS, ECMWF, UKMO, WRF & 0600 UTC 

INSAT Satellite Imagery. 09 July 2012. 

11




‣ The southwest Monsoon has further advanced into remaining parts of north Arabian Sea, 

Gujarat State and Rajasthan and thus, it has covered the entire country today, the 11 th July 

2012. 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan now 

lies over east Rajasthan and neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation now extends 

upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Bikaner, centre of the low 

pressure area (Ajmer), Gwalior, Fatehpur, Patna, Bhagalpur and thence southeastwards to 

northeast Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from north Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists 

‣ Pressure gradient between Mumbai(1003.6mb) and Trivandrum (1009.8mb) is about 6.2mb 


Rainfall has occurred at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, 

Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, coastal Andhra 

Pradesh, Meghalaya, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Sub 

Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim; at a few places over Uttrakhand, Punjab, interior Maharashtra, 

Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram and at one or 

two places Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana, west Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Jharkhand, 

Tamilnadu, Telangana and Rayalaseema. Mainly dry weather prevailed over rest parts of the 

country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: 

MountAbu31, Idar23, Cherrapunji15, Erinpura and Udaipur19, Coochbehar and Pasighat11 each, 

Banswara10, Gopalpur9, Deesa and Shirali8 each, Tirupathi, Chittorgarh and Patiala7 each, 

Purnea6, Mangalore, Buldana, Pondicherry, Alapuzha, Bulsar and Ratlam5 each and Kavali, 

Honavar, Cochin and Itanagar4 each. 


Main convective clouds are over south Rajasthan, Gujarat & along the west coast. Cloud band over 

Southeast Indian Ocean between 5-10deg S/80-90deg E is becoming more pronounced. 

NWP Guidance: 

At 925hPa: Up to 72hrs forecast over west Arabian Sea is in near normal strength but a 

strong wind appears to bifurcate. One band going towards Gujarat and another towards south of 

Srilanka. Monsoon trough slightly shifted northwards as low pressure area is moving from east 

Rajasthan to Pakistan area. In 96hrs forecast monsoon trough appears to have shifted little south 

moving across Delhi, Kanpur, Banaras. The western end of monsoon trough is oscillating and 

eastern end close to foot hills. 

At 850hPa: Monsoon trough is going to shift northwards with the passage of cyclonic 

circulation over Madhya Pradesh and remain so till 96hrs forecast. 

At 700hPa: With the weakening of cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh 48hrs 

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forecast shows break like situation. Westerlies are prevailing over Northwest India and an 

anticyclonic circulation formed over Madhya Pradesh. Whereas southerly flow is seen over Bay of 

Bengal. 

At 200hPa: Subtropical westerlies continue to persist over south Tibet (30N). Even over 

Delhi there are light westerly winds. Low level jet is weak (40kts). Sub tropical westerlies 

continue to dominate Tibet and the strength is increasing over Delhi. Tibetan anticyclone continues 

to south and will remain weak. So, upper tropospheric features are not favourable for sustained 

activities of monsoon. 

Rainfall Forecast: Rainfall forecast charts between shows decreased rainfall over west 

coast and increased over sub mountain area region. North Bay of Bengal will remain cloud free. 

RS/RW Data: 

Date 

Total 

Stations 

Total 

ascent 

taken at 00 UTC 

Total No. of 

GPS 

stations 

No. of GPS 

stations 

Above 

100hPa 

No. of Non 

GPS stations 

Above 

100hPa 

Total No. of 

stations 

Above 

100hPa 

09 th July 36 20 10 7 4 11 


Low pressure area which was lying over Northwest Madhya Pradesh has moved westwards 

and now lies over east Rajasthan. This low pressure was in diffused state on 7 th July but westward 

movement enhanced its intensity due to moist incursion possibly from Arabian Sea. As a result 

monsoon trough has shifted southwards instead of northward movement which was forecasted by 

the models. So the monsoon has advanced and covered entire country. As result of that aerosol 

load over Jodhpur has considerably decreased from 5 th to 8 th July (1.03-0.38). Eastern end of 

monsoon trough has slightly shifted northwards. Since 6 th July all India rainfall is slightly above 

the normal. Over Central India rainfall has also increased from 3 rd July onwards and over 

Northwest India from 6 th July onwards. East & Peninsular India is below normal. 

During next 2-3days monsoon trough will slightly shifted northwards as low pressure area 

will move from east Rajasthan to Pakistan area and 4 th day monsoon trough may slightly shifted 

little south. With the formation of an anti-cyclonic circulation over Madhya Pradesh during next 2- 

3 days there may be break like situation. And Tibetan anticyclone will continue weak & south of 

its normal position. Rainfall will decreased over west coast and increased over foothills. 


13



14




‣ Western end of monsoon trough has shifted northward and today at 75 0 E it is at around 

30 0 N. The eastern half of the axis of monsoon trough continues to lie close to the foot hills 

of the Himalayas. Today monsoon trough passes through Ganganagar, Meerut, Bareilly, 

Gorakhpur, Darbhanga and thence eastwards to Nagaland. 

‣ The feeble off shore trough at mean sea level from Konkan coast to Kerala coast persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan and neighbourhood now lies over 

Punjab and neighbourhood and extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies between 3.6 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. over Andaman Sea and 

neighbourhood. 

‣ Another cyclonic circulation lies between 2.1 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. over southwest Bay of 

Bengal off north Tamil Nadu coast. 

‣ Pressure gradient between Trivandrum and Mumbai is about 2.9mb and between Portblair 

& Kolkata it is about 4.6mb 

‣ At 500mb trough appears south Andaman Sea and penetrated up to 17 0 N over Bay of 

Bengal. 

‣ 200mb analysis shows strong westerly over Delhi (30kts) and westerly flow has penetrated 

up to Ahmadabad. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, 

northeastern states and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, 

Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana & Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, coastal 

Orissa, GangeticWest Bengal, Gujarat region, west coast and Lakshadweep; at a few places over 

east Rajasthan, Jharkhand and north coastal Tamilnadu and at one or two places over rest parts of 

the country outside north interior Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and south 

Tamilnadu where weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Cherrapunji30, Dharamsala7, Tezpur6, Carnicobar5, 

Ambikapur4 and Portblair, Ratnagiri, Mukteshwar, Balasore, Agartala, Honawar, Bulsar, Shimla, 

Mumbai (Colaba), Tadong, Seoni, Pendra, Pasighat and Narnaul 3 each. 


Cloudiness associated with monsoon trough has shifted to foothills and this cloud band is 

also connected to cloudiness over China between 28-30 0 N. Monsoon trough also lies over 

Southeast Asia from Burma to Vietnam. There is no cloudiness over South China Sea and 

Philippines. Cloudiness over Southern Hemispheric Equatorial Trough (SHET) has decreased and 

it is also shifting. A cloud band also exists over Andaman sea region. Arabian Sea is mostly cloud 

free. Over most parts of India the cloudiness has decreased. 

NWP Guidance: 

At 925mb: Low level jet over Somali region has got restricted in horizontal extension. 

There is no cyclonic shear over North BOB region. Monsoon trough will remain over Himalayan 

15

foot hills up to 96hrs forecast. There is no generation of cyclonic system over South China Sea. 

These low level features pointed to weak/ break monsoon situation. 

At 700hPa: There is a broad westerly flow over India but a cyclonic shear zone exists 

over central and north BoB. Whereas, over South China Sea an anti-cyclonic shear zone exist 

between 15-20N. 

At 500hPa: Most of BoB is dominated by easterly flow, which is going through 

peninsular India to Arabian Sea. Westerly trough also exists along 70E. All these features 

persisting up to 96hrs of Forecast. However, the influence of westerly trough is also seen over 

monsoon in South China Sea region. 

At 200hPa: Tropical easterly jet is about 60kts over Chennai latitude. Westerly has 

penetrated up to 25N and winds over Delhi have become stronger. Tibetian anti-cyclone is weak 

and south of its normal position. The trough at 75E seen in 500hPa charts is also extending in 

200mb charts up to 72hrs forecast. In the 96hrs forecast Tibetan shows tendency to move 

northward. 

Rainfall Forecast: Dominant feature in IMD GFS/ IMD WRF & UKMO model forecast shows 

rain belt along foot hills ranging from Pakistan to China. And they are showing very little rain over 

Central and north BoB and South China Sea. Rainfall will decrease along west coast and increase 

over Sub-Himalayan region. The main difference between IMD GFS & UKMO model is that GFS 

model shows some organised rain over Central India whereas UKMO model don‟t show that and 

UKMO model shows penetration of rain south of foothills up to GWB possibly due to southward 

shifting of eastern end of monsoon trough. Convection over South China Sea is suppressed. Break 

monsoon condition persisting up to 70-96hrs. 

RS/RW Data: 

Date Total Stations Total ascent taken 

at 00 UTC 

Total No. of stations 

Above 100hPa 

13 th July 36 19 13 


Aerosol data shows further decreasing in AOD. This is probably due to rainfall spells occurring 

over the monsoon zone. Jodhpur, Nagpur, New Delhi and Varanasi show AOD at 0.85, 0.65, 0.31 

& 0.25 respectively. The AOD has decreased and over all stations from 1.1 to about 0.5 between 1 

July -12 July. 

Sagar Kanya Ship ascents at 20.95N/89.26E show low level maximum wind about 9.7 m/s at 975 

mb and stable isothermal layer between 675 mb to 650 mb. Wind at 200 mb is 26.5m/s. 

Over BoB out of 8 buoys only 2-3 buoys are reporting SST. And SST reported by southern most 

buoy at 6.24N/85.9E is doubtful. As observed from today‟s 0300Z data no SST gradient was seen 

over BoB. In Arabian Sea region 3-4 buoys are reporting SST. Northern most buoy is reporting 

SST about 1degC warmer than southernmost. 

Over south Indian Ocean Mascarene high has considerably shifted eastwards. Pressure gradient 

between Gulf of Madagascar to equator is about 10mb, pointing to lower strength of cross 

equatorial flow. In the northern Pacific Ocean high pressure area has also shifted eastward (East of 

16

120E). 

During next 4 days the monsoon is expected to remain weak and no major development to take 

place. 




17




‣ Monsoon trough is north of normal position over west of 85E. Eastern part of monsoon 

trough has two branches one part east of 85E it is deeping in to Bay of Bengal and second 

part over east India, it is near foot hills. 

‣ Off shore trough lying between 15-18 0 N. 

‣ In the lower troposphere there is north-south trough over east Uttar Pradesh. But at 700- 

500mb there are westerlies along 77E. Tibetan anticyclone south of its normal position. 

‣ At 700/500mb winds are continue to be westerly over Delhi. 

‣ At 200mb TEJ maxima (about 55 kts) is near Bhubaneswar and Vizag. 

‣ Mascarene high (1037mb) is lying along 80E. A baroclinic low pressure system is passing 

south of 40S and it has no influence over Gulf of Madagascar. From Pacific side a well 

marked low lies near 20N/140E and feeble low seen over Philippines. A low pressure area 

is also seen over Southeast China. 

‣ Pressure gradient over Arabian Sea is normal whereas over Bay of Bengal it is about 6mb, 

meaning that pressure gradient has improved over Bay of Bengal. 

‣ Temperature gradient between equators to 15 0 N is about 0.5 0 C. 


Rainfall has occurredat most places over Konkan, &Goa,coastal Karnataka, Bihar, SubHi 

malayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh; at manyplaces over e 

ast Uttar Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Rayalaseema, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Jharkhand 

, Gangetic West Bengal, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Lakshadweep at a few 

places over Kerala, Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & 

Nicobar Islands and at one or two places over Jammu & Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, 

Punjab, Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat and west Madhya Pradesh. Thechief amo 

unts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Cherrapunji40, Passigh 

at26, Shillongand Siliguri13 each, Darjeeling9, Kalimpong8, Bhramhapuri, Patna and Mandla 

6 each, Agumbe, Dhubri, ChandrapurChurk, Arogyavaram, Gangtok, Jalpaiguri, Nagpur and 

Honavar5 each and Coochbehar, Karwar, Tadong and Damoh and Atiramapatna4 each. 


Today‟s 0600UTC INSAT image shows a grand organisation of cloud band between 25- 

30 0 N east of 85 0 E. So monsoon band from India to China is strong. But a good monsoon band 

should normally lie between 15 0 N-20 0 N over Southeast Asia. 

NWP Guidance: 

At 850mb: LLJ over west central Arabian Sea shows strength of 40 kts. Winds over west coast 

are weaker and flow is decreased northwest of Goa. Second branch still persisting south of 

Srilanka. A very little change from the charts of 13 th July except a North-south Trough developed 

over east Uttar Pradesh. There is no deepening of monsoon trough over Bay of Bengal. In the 

forecast charts situation remain same up to 19 th July but on 20 th July a monsoon trough is 

appearing and on 21 st July a cyclonic circulation is lying over Gangetic West Bengal and flow is 

18

ecoming close to normal. 

At 500hPa: Ridge over Central BoB has disappeared in todays forecast charts. 

At 200hPa: Forecast charts suggest shifting of Tibetan anticyclone over south Tibet on 19 th -20 th 

July. However on the western side of 75E westerlies continue to prevail up to Delhi although they 

have weakened in strength. 

Rainfall Forecast: Rainfall forecast charts show heavy rainfall patches along the foothills. But on 

21 st , 22 nd heavy rainfall patches are shifting towards Orissa, Chhattisgarh and east Madhya 

Pradesh. North BoB is still having less rain, whereas rains have increased over Burma coast. On 

the whole till about 22 nd all India rainfall is expected to be below normal. 

ECMWF forecast charts shows recovery of monsoon over West Bengal, Orissa, and adjoining 

Central India between 20-22 nd . They also shows strong monsoon trough from Gujarat to north BoB 

on 22 nd and 23 rd July 

RS/RW Data: 

Date Total Total ascent taken at 00 Total No. of stations Above 100hPa 

Stations UTC 

13 th July 36 20 12 


AOD are still low over stations Jodhpur, Rohatak and Varanasi. 

RS data from Sagar Kanya shows an isothermal layer between 675-650mb 

In the last two days rainfall has become normal with the development of North south trough over 

east Uttar Pradesh. During last four days rainfall was weak over Central & west coast of India 


19



20




‣ Pressure gradient over BoB has significantly increased 4-5mb and over Arabian Sea it has 

increased about 3-4mb during last few days. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level runs close to foot hills of Himalayas. 

‣ Rama buoys shows equatorial SST 29.3 0 C (0.01S/89E), South BoB (8N/89E) 28.6 0 C, and 

at 15N/90E it is 29.0 0 C. Sagar Kanya has reported 29.1 0 C SST at 20.2N/86.7E on 00UTC 

of 17 th July. So there is a very little gradient. 

‣ In southern Indian ocean, Mascarene high (1038hPa) located near 34S/85E. But a 

baroclinic low is passing though south Mozambique channel and behind it a ridge is 

coming from east African region. 

‣ JTWC track for tropical storm (KHANUN) shows a tropical depression on 15 th July 

centered near 25N/134E and has intensified on 18 th July centered near 30N/127E intensity 

T2.5/3.5. JTWC forecast track shows it is likely to move northward. However there is no 

system between 15N to 25N in Philippines and South China Sea. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level now runs from from Konkan coast to Karnataka 

coast. 

‣ An upper air troughruns from subHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkimto central Bay ofBen 

gal in lower levels. 


Rainfall over India, after remaining normal for 3days between 14 th -16 th July has today 

fallen to about 55% of the normal. Over Central parts of India rainfall is deficit by 50% 

from 12 th -17 th July. Over Northeast India it has rained heavily. Over peninsular and 

Northwest India rainfall is below normal. Rainfall has occurred at most places over 

Konkan, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura and Bihar; at many 

places over Karnataka, Kerala, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Telengana, Rayalaseema, 

Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Nagaland and Manipur; at 

a few places over Gujarat region, Tamilnadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Madhya 

Maharashtra and at one or two places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east 

Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Saurashtra & Kutch, Lakshadweep, Vidarbha 

and Marathwada Weather remained mainly dry over rest parts of the 

country. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST 

of today are: Cherrapunji28, Ratnagiri19, Jalpaiguri17, Harnai10, Mumbai (Scz), 

Karwar, Vengurla and Panagarh6 each, Haldia, Panjim, Pamban, Bhira and 

Mahabaleshwar5 each, Nagpur, Dahanu, Diamond Harbour, Mumbai (Colaba), 

Mayabandar and Passighat4 each and Ramagundam, Hyderabad, Jamshedpur, Honavar, 

Agartala, Arogyavaram, Medikeri, Shirali, Raichur, Darjeeling and Berhampore3 each. 


Major cloud band is oriented towards China between 22-30N and over West Pacific 

region between 10-20N/100-120E is clear. A cloud cluster lies over Konkan and Goa 

21

coast. Today‟s satellite image shows the cloud band over China is breaking up to in to 

patches. And near equatorial band has shifted to south-adjoining Central BoB between 10- 

14N. A cloud patch also lies over north BoB. Cloud mass lying between 20-23N/88-93E 

has coldest CTT values -40C and cloud band over south BoB has moderate CTT values 

between -40C to -50C. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: Rainfall band along the foot hills and secondary band over West Bengal 

region may be due to formation of a feeble cyclonic circulation. Sub-Himalayan band 

continue from central Himalaya to China but secondary band over North BoB and 

neighbourhood is persisting up to 96hrs forecast and enter inland up to Gujarat in 120hrs 

forecast (23July) There is a increase in rainfall over South China Sea and Philippines area. 

There is also a patch of rain over SHET area which comes and disappearing on daily scale. 

ECMWF: On 850mb chart shows there is fairly agreement between IMD GFS and 

ECMWF. As ECMWF model also shows development of a feeble cyclonic circulation and 

its westward movement up to Gujarat (23 rd July) and a fairly marked monsoon trough. 

However at 200mb ECMWF chart Tibetan anti-cyclone centered near 31N, it is weak in 

intensity but persisting up to 23 rd July. However winds over Delhi are moderate Westerly. 

And ridge is south of normal position. Easterly flow over Gangetic plains is fairly strong. 

And there is no north-easterly cross equatorial flow over BoB and Arabian Sea which is 

also unfavourable for sustaining monsoon activities. Rainfall forecast of ECMWF and 

IMD GFS are mutually in agreement on 19 th -21 st July with one band near Sub-Himalayan 

connecting to China band and secondary band over North BoB entering India. But in 

SHET region rain band is well organised on 22 nd -23 rd July. These charts do not show any 

development of east-west oriented rain band between 10N-14N as suggested by satellite 

imagery. 

UKMO Model: UKMO model shows monsoon trough along the foothills up to 19 th and 

southward movement on 20 th and continue till 22 nd July but doesn‟t show formation of 

feeble cyclonic circulation over West Bengal. In the rainfall forecast it shows Sub- 

Himalayan band on 19 th -20 th and development of secondary band between 19 th -22 nd July 

and its inland penetration on 22 nd -23 rd July. There are significant differences in low level 

circulations and rainfall but IMD GFS & ECMWF on one side and UKMO on other. 

UKMO model is showing development of monsoon trough over South China Sea and 

cyclonic disturbance on 20 th &21 st . 

The major difference is between IMD GFS/ECMWF and UKMO appears in the 

development of tropical disturbance east of Philippines near 18N/130E and its movement 

towards the China coast (20N/120E) on 23 rd July. If this happens this may result in a down 

scale amplification of monsoon over BoB. However GFS charts shows formation of 

topical disturbance east of Philippines on 22 nd July. So next few days are very critical for 

arrival of monsoon and of reformation monsoon trough over South China Sea and BoB as 

indicated in UKMO. 

RS/RW Data: 19 Station have reported ascent above 100hPa levels. 

22


Monsoon break condition continues up to 19 th and there is a possibility of in situ 

formation of feeble cyclonic circulation over West Bengal region/North BoB which may 

move up to Gujarat by 23 rd July. There is no chance of revival from south. And as such 

insitu revival of monsoon is rather weak up to 23 rd July as large features are not supported. 


Considering the current observations, IOP is declared as follows: 

1. IOP is declared for Orissa, West Bengal, and Konkan & Karnataka Coast for next two 

days i.e., 19 th & 20 th July. 0000UTC RS/RW observations to be ascertained over the 

stations in above sub-divisions. 

2. IOP for Sagar Kanya : Clouding over North BoB between 18N-20N/88E-92E is 

persisting and lowest CTT values are near -40C indicating clouds are deep up to about 

10km height. This situation is likely to continue during next 3-4days. 

3. IOP for Sagar Nidhi: There is a indication of development of a cloud band between 14N- 

16N. So please record observation of this cloud band during your transition and take RS 

ascent between 87E-90E. 

23



24

INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 19th JULY 2012 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim 

and active over Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Bihar, Konkan & Goa and Vidarbha. It has 

been subdued over west Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, west Rajasthan, 

Madhya Pradesh and Kerala. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level continues to lie close to the foothills of 

the Himalayas. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from north Maharashtra coast to Karnataka coast 

now extends from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation between 2.1 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. lies over North Bay of Bengal and 


‣ The trough in the lower level westerlies from Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim to 

east central Bay of Bengal has become less marked 

Main Weather Observations 

RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 19Jul to 0830 hours IST of 20 Jul): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over West Bengal & Sikkim; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, east 

Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, 

coastal Karnataka, north Andhra Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura; 

at a few places over Assam, Marathawada, Vidarbha, interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep and 

Andaman & Nicobar Island and at one or two places over Haryana, Uttarakhand, west Uttar 

Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala. Weather remained mainly dry 

over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 

hours IST of today are: Bhubaneshwar and Allahabad11 each, Agartala and Sidhi9 each, Bahraich, 

Bagati, Barabanki, Varanasi, Cherrapunji and Bilaspur7 each, Bhira, Mahabaleshwar, Midnapore 

and Panagarh6 each, Malda, Lucknow, Sultanpur, Jamshedpur, Gangtok, Lengpui, Champa, 

Krishnanagar, Darjeeling and Fursatgang5 each and Pendra, Hirakud, Siliguri, Raipur, Durg, 

Churk, Agumbe and Rewa4 each. 

Clouds: Kalpana1 

Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of east Rajasthan, Uttar 

Pradesh, Bengal, coastal Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Bay of Bengal and 

Andaman Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country outside west Rajasthan 

and Saurashtra & Kutch. 

Rainfall: 

ODISHA: Mundali-25, Athgarh-16, Banki (ARG)-11, Naraj-9, Cuttack-7, Tigiria (ARG)-7, 

Salepur (ARG)-7, Bhubaneswar (AP)-7, Madhabarida-6, Daspalla-6, Chhatrapur-6, 

Kosagumda-6, Belaguntha (ARG)-5, Khandapara-5, Gopalpur-5, Berhampur-5, Bhuban 

(ARG)-5, Aska-4, Mahanga (ARG)-4, Raghunathpur (ARG)-4, Umarkote-4, Ranpur-4, 

Saintala (ARG)-4, Chandbali-4, Gania (ARG)-4, Purushottampur-4, Patnagarh-4, Jeypore-4, 

Talcher-3, Nayagarh-3, Paradeep (CWR)-3, Kantapada (ARG)-3, Anandpur-3, Nischintakoili 

(ARG)-3, Balipatna (ARG)-3, Nawarangpur-3, Parjang (ARG)-3, Pipili-3, Athmalik-3, 

Danagadi (ARG)-3, Banpur-3, Dunguripalli-3, Bhanjnagar-3, Dabugan (ARG)-2, Joshipur-2, 

Khairamal-2, Jaleswar-2, Rengali-2, Sorada-2, Malkangiri-2, Rajghat-2, Narsinghpur-2, Bari 

25

(ARG)-2, Similiguda (AWS)-2, Sonepur-2, Hirakud-2, Pattamundai-2, Tentulikhunti 

(ARG)-2, Tarva (ARG)-2, Krishnaprasad-2, Khaprakhol (ARG)-2, Dhenkanal-2, Jagannath 

Prasad (ARG)-2, Jhorigam (ARG)-2, Binika-2, Jamsolaghat-2, Koraput-2, Titlagarh-2, Burla 

(ARG)-2, Loisingha (ARG)-2, Kendrapara-2, Karanjia-2, Tirtol (ARG)-1, Bolagarh (ARG)-1, 

Nimpara-1, Tikarpara-1, Basudevpur (AWS)-1, Swam-Patna-1, Sambalpur-1, Jenapur-1, 

Belgaon-1, Niali (ARG)-1, Jujumura (ARG)-1, Bolangir-1, Alipingal-1, Pallahara-1, 

Kantamal-1, Jagatsinghpur (AWS)-1, Phiringia (ARG)-1, Rajkanika-1, Jamankira-1, 

Binjharpur (ARG)-1, Sinapali (ARG)-1, Ghatagaon-1, Odagaon (ARG)-1, Remuna (ARG)-1, 

Kalinga-1, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-1, Barmul-1, Kakatpur-1, Baripada-1, Chandanpur-1, 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Gajoldoba-27, Salbari-19, 

Hasimara-19, Kumargram-18, Sevoke-17, Champasari-17, Darjeeling (AWS)-16, 

Darjeeling-15, Barobhisha-14, Bagrakote-13, Domohani-13, NH-31 Bridge-13, Alipurduar 

(CWC)-13, Murti-13, Darjeeling(State)-12, Alipurduar(State)-12, Chepan-12, Sukiapokhri-10, 

Buxaduar-9, Bagdogra (IAF)-8, Singla Bazar-8, Chengmari/Diana-8, Mangan-7, Gangtok-7, 

Damthang-7, Islampur-6, Neora-6, Nagarkata-6, Kalimpong-5, Pedong-5, Khanitar-5, 

Garubathan-5, Tadong-5, Gangtok (AWS)-4, Jalpaiguri-4, Haldibari-4, Falakata-3, Dinhata-3, 

Karandighi-2, Mohitnagar-2, Cooch Behar-2, Chanchal-2, Rongo-1, Mathabhanga-1, 

GANGETIC WEST BENGAL: Manmothnagar-10, Contai (State)-8, Basirhat (State)-8, 

Sagar Island (AWS)-7, Burdawan (State)-6, Chinsura-6, Kalna-6, Sagar (State)-5, 

Mohanpur-5, Contai-5, Jhargram-5, Sabong-5, Khirpai-4, Kolkata (Dum Dum)-4, Kolkata 

(AWS)-4, Deganga-4, Durgachack-4, D.P.Ghat-4, Midnapore-4, Barrackpur( IAF)-4, 

Midnapore(CWC)-4, Gheropara-3, Arambagh-3, Burdwan (PTO)-3, Basirhat(PT)-3, Diamond 

Harbour-3, Tusuma-2, Kharagpur( I.I.T)-2, Kanksa (BSF)-2, Panagarh (IAF)-2, Canning-2, 

Bankura(CWC)-2, Purihansa-2, Canning (AWS)-2, Uluberia-2, Baruipur-2, Phulberia-2, 

Durgapur-2, Uluberia (State)-2, Kolkata (Alipore)-2, Harinkhola-2, Bolpur-2, Kalaikunda ( 

IAF)-2, Bankura-1, Sri Niketan-1, Balagarh-1, Jhalda-1, Suri (CWC)-1, Digha-1, 

Nandigram-1, Joypur(State)-1, Tilpara Barrage-1, Amta-I-1, 

COASTAL KARNATAKA: Kollur-7, Kadra-5, Yellapur-5, Bhatkal-3, Shirali-3, Nilkund-3, 

Gorsoppa-3, Ankola-3, Subramanya-3, Jagalbet-2, Dharmasthala-2, Karwar-2, Belthangady-2, 

Gokarna-2, Puttur (HMS)-2, Kumta-2, Manki-1, Karkala-1, Sulya-1, Sirsi (PWD)-1, 

Honavar-1, Kota-1, Koondapur-1, Siddapura-1, Siddapur-1, Udupi-1, 

KONKAN & GOA: Sangamneshwar-17, Roha-16, Jawahar-16, Bhira-15, Matheran-15, 

Mandangad-13, Palghar-13, Khalapur-13, Mokhada-12, Dahanu-12, Mahad-12, Poladpur-12, 

Ulhasnagar-11, Vikramgadh-11, Mangaon-11, Khed-11, Rajapur-11, Bhiwandi-11, Talasari-9, 

Vasai-9, Kalyan-9, Thane Belapur Industrial-9, Mhasala-9, Sahapur-9, Panvel-8, Wada-8, 

Dapoli-8, Lanja-8, Ambernath-7, Murbad-7, Pali-7, Kankavali-7, Mumbai (Santacruz)-7, 

Murud-7, Sawantwadi-6, Karjat-6, Shrivardhan-6, Thane-6, Pen-5, Chiplun-5, Quepem-5, 

Harnai-5, Valpoi-5, Dodamarg-4, Pernem-4, Vengurla-4, Uran-3, Alibag-3, Ratnagiri-3, 

Panjim-2, Vaibhavwadi-2, Ponda-2, Kudal-2, Guhagar-2, Marmagao-2, Mumbai (Colaba)-1, 

Sanguem-1, Dabolim-1, Tala-1, Mapusa-1, Margaon-1, 

SAGARKANYA: RS ascent for 19 Jul 00 UTC. SST=28.9C. Started raining around 4 am. At 

the time of RS launch, rain intensity came down and slow drizzle was observed. Sky overcast 

with stratus cloud cover. Convective clouds seen around. 

26

NFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 20 th JULY 2012 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been active over Gangetic West Bengal, Madhya 

Maharashtra, Chattisgarh and Telangana. It has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, 

Uttarakhand, Haryana, Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and 

Kerala. 

‣ Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal and 

neighbourhood, a low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal. Associated 

cyclonic circulation extends upto 7.6 kms a.s.l, tilting southwestwards with height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozepur, Mainpuri, 

Fatehpur, Gaya, Kolkata and thence southeastwards to the centre of the low pressure area 

over northwest Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast now 

extends from south Maharashtra coast to Karnataka coast. 


RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 20Jul to 0830 hours IST of 21 Jul): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Kerala, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Sikkim and Meghalaya; 

at many places over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, 

Konkan, coastal & north interior Karnataka, Orissa, Assam, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh 

and Lakshadweep; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya 

Maharashtra, South Interior Karnataka, Marathawada, Rayalaseema, West Bengal and Manipur 

and at one or two places over Jammu & Kashmir, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, 

Gujarat region, Saurashtra ,Tamilnadu, Vidarbha, northwest & east Rajasthan and Andaman & 

Nicobar Islands. Weather remained mainly dry over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of 

rainfall (3 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Hyderabad, Sultanpur, Mana, 

Kalingapatnam15 each, Hirakud and Raipur14 each, Damoh and Cherrapunji13 each, 

Koraput11,Agumbe and Mahabaleshwar8 each, Jabalpur7,Solan and Bhira6 each, Guwahati, 

Pasighat, Lumding and Sambalpur5 each, Karwar, Gaya, Chandigarh, Rangia, Khammam and 

Nalgonda4 each, Dehradun, Ambala,Gulbarga, Lucknow, Nandigama, Kozhikode, Ranchi, 

Karipur, Silchar, Durg, Bidar,Mehboobnagar and Medak3 each. 

CLOUDS: Kalpana1 

Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of northeast & east central 

Arabian Sea, central and adjoining north Bay of Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, 

coastal Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. 

Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the Country. 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Sukiapokhri-10, Darjeeling (AWS)-8, 

Rongo-7, Darjeeling-5, Malda-5, Gangtok-5, Darjeeling(State)-5, Salbari-5, Bagdogra 

(IAF)-4, Gajoldoba-4, Champasari-4, Pedong-4, Sevoke-3, Singla Bazar-3, NH-31 Bridge-2, 

Nagarkata-2, Namthang-2, Damthang-2, Bagrakote-2, Khanitar-2, Neora-2, Tadong-2, 

Gangtok(AWS)-2, Domohani-1, Mangan-1, Mohitnagar-1, Balurghat-1, Garubathan-1, 

Kalimpong-1, Mahinagar-1, Murti-1, Chanchal-1, Jalpaiguri-1, Gangarampur-1, Tapan-1, 

Buxaduar-1, Alipurduar(State)-1. 

27

GANGETIC WEST BENGAL: Purihansa-10, Ranaghat-7, Bagati-7, Midnapore(CWC)-7, 

Jhalda-6, Phulberia-6, Kanksa (BSF)-6, Sagar Island (AWS)-6, Midnapore-6, Kharagpur( 

I.I.T)-6, Kharidwar-6, Panagarh (IAF)-6, Asansol(CWC)-5, Kalna-5, Krishnanagar(State)-5, 

Barrackpur( IAF)-5, Krishnanagar-5, Harinkhola-5, Chinsura-5, Amta-5, Durgapur-4, 

Jhargram (AWS)-4, Hatwara-4, Kansabati Dam-4, Khirpai-4, Kalaikunda ( IAF)-4, 

Ranibandh-4, Bongaon-4, Balagarh-4, Joypur(State)-4, Pingla-4, Sagar (State)-4, Katwa-4, 

Tusuma-4, Kashipur-3, Simula-3, Mohanpur-3, Uluberia-3, Uluberia (State)-3, D.P.Ghat-3, 

Dhaniakhali-2, Jhargram-2, Nakshipara-2, Arambagh-2, Tantloi-2, Basirhat(PT)-1, Indus-1, 

Narayanpur-1, Berhampore-1, Burdawan (State)-1, Bankura(CWC)-1, Bankura-1, Deganga-1, 

Sabong-1, Burdwan (PTO)-1, Contai (State)-1. 

ODISHA: Bhubaneswar (AP)-11, Jagatsinghpur (AWS)-10, Alipingal-9, Joshipur-8, Soro-7, 

Banki (ARG)-6, Bargarh-6, Jamsolaghat-6, Mandira Dam-6, Daitari-5, Mahanga (ARG)-5, 

Chandanpur-5, Nilgiri-5, Laikera-5, Jajpur-5, Bangiriposi-5, Jenapur-4, Kamakhyanagar-4, 

Altuma (CWC)-4, Hirakud-4, Rajgangpur-4, Rairangpur-3, Panposh-3, Sukinda-3, Nimpara-3, 

Niali (ARG)-3, Burla (ARG)-3, Sambalpur-3, Anandpur-3, Narsinghpur-3, Krishnaprasad-3, 

Korei (ARG)-3, Kantapada (ARG)-3, Jeypore-2, Nawapara-2, Baripada-2, Kirmira (ARG)-2, 

Ghatagaon-2, Danagadi (ARG)-2, Chendipada-2, Sohela-2, Nawana-2, Bonth-2, Balikuda 

(ARG)-2, Basudevpur (AWS)-2, Puri-2, Balimundali-2, Cuttack-2, Athgarh-2, Bari (ARG)-2, 

Koraput-2, Karanjia-2, Tiring-2, Deogarh-2, Swam-Patna-2, Dhamnagar (ARG)-1, 

Khandapara-1, Naraj-1, Jhumpura-1, Mundali-1, Akhuapada-1, Barkote-1, Bhadrak (AWS)-1, 

Komna-1, Nayagarh-1, Tangi-1, Dunguripalli-1, Ullunda (ARG)-1, Paradeep (CWR)-1, 

Kosagumda-1, Thakurmunda-1, Rajkishorenagar-1, Pipili-1, Malkangiri-1, Kolabira (ARG)-1, 

Gania (ARG)-1. 

KONKAN & GOA: Sangameshwar-11, Chiplun-7, Jawhar-7, Matheran-6, Shahapur-6, 

Mahad-5, Mangaon-5, Roha-4, Lanja-4, Poladpur-4, Khed-4, Karjat-4, Vikramgad-4, 

Ratnagiri-3, Mhasla-3, Sudhagad Pali-3, Murbad-3, Pen-3, Guhagarh-3, Khalapur-3, Tala-3, 

Sawantwadi-3, Kalyan-3, Mokheda-3, Mandangad-3, Kudal-3, Rajapur-2, Dodamarg-2, 

Valpoi-2, Ulhasnagar-2, Vada-2, Palghar-2, Mumbai (Colaba)-2, Panvel-2, Thane-2, 

Ambernath-2, Bhiwandi-2, Alibag-2, Devgad-2, Kankavli-2, Sanguem-1, Murud-1, Talasari-1, 

Dapoli-1, Uran-1, Ponda-1, Margao-1, Mumbai (Santacruz)-1, Vengurla-1, 

COASTAL KARNATAKA: Nilkund-9, Gokarna-7, Ankola-7, Kollur-6, Gorsoppa-5, 

Kadra-5, Siddapur-4, Jagalbet-3, Sirsi Pwd-3, Yellapur-3, Joida-2, Banavasi-2, Karwar-2, 

Mani-2, Dharmasthala-2, Siddapura-1, Bhatkal-1, Karkala-1, Belthangady-1, Kota-1, Sulya-1, 

Uppinagadi-1, Kumta-1, Koondapur-1, Honavar-1, Subramanya-1, Manchikere-1, 

SAGARKANYA: RS ascent for 20 Jul 00 UTC. 

SST=28.8. Rainfall at 8.30 am on 19 JUL = 28 mm. 

Rainfall at 8.30 am on 20 Jul = 72.6 mm. 

Sky overcast & it is drizzling. 

00UTC sounding for 22 JUL below. SST=28.8C. 

Rain recorded on 21 Jul = 19.7mm & 22 Jul = 5.7mm. 

Sea state very rough. Pl note, wind field at the lowest level is approximate. 

28



29




‣ Major change since 18 th July is shifting of monsoon trough to the south of Himalayas. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passesing through Ferozepur,Meerut, Fursa 

tganj, Hazaribagh, Bankura, centerof low pressure area and thence south east 

wards to east central Bay of Bengal. 

‣ A low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoiningcoastal areas 

of Orissa andWest Bengal. An associated cyclonic circulation extends up to mid - 

tropospheric levels tilting southwest wards with height. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level from Konkan coast to Karnataka coast persists. 


Rainfallhas occurred atmost places over West Bengal & Sikkim; at many places over Jammu & Ka 

shmir, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar,Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Konkan & Goa, Madhya 

Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, north Andhra 

Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur 

and Tripura; at a few 

places over Assam, Marathawada,Vidarbha,interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nic 

obar Island andat one or twoplacesoverHaryana, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pr 

adesh, east Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala. Weatherremained mainly dry over rest parts of the coun 

try. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today 

are: Bhubaneshwar and Allahabad11 each, Agartala and Sidhi9 each, Bahraich, 

Bagati, Barabanki, Varanasi, Cherrapunji and Bilaspur7 each, Bhira, Mahabaleshwar, 

Midnapore and Panagarh6 each, Malda, Lucknow, Sultanpur, Jamshedpur, Gangtok, 

Lengpui, Champa, Krishnanagar, Darjeeling and Fursatgang5 each and Pendra, Hirakud, 

Siliguri, Raipur, Durg, Churk, Agumbe and Rewa4 each. 


Weakening of cloud band connection with cloud band over China. A well organised formation of 

cloud band along 17-18N with extension up to 22N over BoB. The South China Sea Cloudiness is 

still not well marked. The monsoon cloud band is only over India and BoB and not extending to 

Southeast Asia. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: Low level Jet runs from Somalia Coast to 18-20N over India. Bifurcation of low level 

flow is present, one band passing over Kerala to South of Srilanka but becoming less prominent 

than another band over North- Central India. A cyclonic circulation is present over North BoB and 

adjoining West Bengal as it was shown in forecast charts. In 72hr forecast and beyond cyclonic 

circulation over Chhattisgarh is weakening and moving towards UP and Bihar. Tropical depression 

over North Philippines and neighbourhood moving towards China Coast and weakening. 96hrs 

forecast shows weakening and northward shifting of monsoon trough. However 120hr forecast 

(valid on 25 th July) another cyclonic circulation is forming over North BoB and adjoining West 

Bengal which may bring monsoon trough to south. In short term scenario monsoon may remain in 

the belt Chhattisgarh and Bihar. 

30

At 200mb: Sub-tropical anticyclone is over Southeast Tibet and its ridge is more slightly moved 

north of Delhi. Along with intensification of anticyclone, easterlies over Chennai have 

strengthened and cross equatorial flow has got north ward component toward BoB. 

Rainfall: Sub-Himalayan rain maxima appear in patches and secondary maxima over BoB is 

shifting westward to west MP. 72hr forecast (valid on 23 rd July) shows another convective band 

developing over Coastal Myanmar and adjoining North BoB but no further strengthening. On the 

contrary sub-Himalayan rain band is strengthening in 120hr forecast. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: Cyclonic circulation present over North BoB and neighbourhood is being forecasted to 

move more westward and E-W trough running at about 23-25N up to 72hr forecast. In 96hr 

forecast centre of circulation over east MP and adjoining Chhattisgarh. 120hr forecast shows insitu 

weakening of circulation over East MP but persistence of easterly winds over Gangetic plains. 

144hr forecast shows development of cyclonic circulation over North BoB. 

Forecast of IMD GFS and ECMWF forecast is quite close as far as cyclonic circulation is 

concerned. 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone is over South Tibet. But winds over Delhi continue to be westerly. 

So there is a fairly good consensus between the two models. 

Rainfall: Forecast charts of rainfall shows rain bands over the region of cyclonic circulation over 

BoB and its westward movement. Good rainfall is forecasted over west MP area. This rain band 

may also affect Delhi on 24 th -25 th July. 

UKMO Model: 

At 850mb: Cyclonic circulation is little north of analysed situation and initially it is moving 

westward. On 24 th it is showing more northward movement of circulation as compared to IMD 

GFS and ECMWF. Tropical Depression over South China Sea is near 22-23N but there is no 

downstream amplification is seen in 25 th forecast charts. 

Rainfall: Rainfall forecast charts shows westward movement of rain band associated with cyclonic 

circulation up to West MP between 21-24 July and then northward shifting towards east UP. On 

25 th the rainfall band is centred along around UP, Bihar & MP. But increase in rainfall over 

Northeast BoB and connection with rain band over China is disrupted. 

There is variance between UKMO and GFS in terms of circulation as well as rainfall on day 3- 4. 



Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over North Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood, a 

low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal. Associated cyclonic circulation 

extends upto 7.6 kms a.s.l, tilting southwestwards with height. The axis of monsoon trough at 

mean sea level has shifted southwards. 

The southwest Monsoon has been active over Gangetic West Bengal, Madhya Maharashtra, 

Chattisgarh and Telangana. It has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, 

Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, south interior Karnataka and Kerala. Rain would increase from 

Chhattisgarh to west MP & north Maharashtra but there will be marginal improvement over 

Northwest India, west Gujarat and Peninsular India. Its continuous recovery would depend on 

31

formation of a cyclonic circulation over North BoB as predicted by IMD GFS/ECMWF models on 

24 th -25 th July. Over South China Sea/ Pacific Ocean a depression is centred near 18N/124E (off 

NE Philippines) and likely to move NW-wards. Mascarene high is centred near 33.5S/68E 

(1030mb) and a low pressure is lying over south of Africa centred near 44.5S/18.0E. 

Intensive Observation Period (IOP): Considering the current observations, IOP is declared as 

follows: 

IOP for Sagar Kanya: Adverse weather may improve between 21 st -23 rd July although clouding 

may remain. However between 24 th -25 th the weather may detoriate again due to possible 

formation of another cyclonic circulation over North BoB and adjoining West Bengal. So you may 

have IOP on 23 rd and wait for our message on 23 rd & 25 th July2012. 

IOP for Sagar Nidhi: Even though weather may not disturb in your region but you may have IOP 

on 23 rd July2012. 

32

INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 23 rd JULY 2012 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Narnaul, 

Satna, Daltonganj, Kolkata and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. It 

extends upto 0.9 Km a.s.l. 

‣ The low pressure area over north Chattisgarh and neighbourhood moved over northeast 

Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood yesterday evening. It has merged with the monsoon 

trough today morning. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to north Kerala coast 

now lies as a feeble offshore trough extending from Goa coast to Kerala coast. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies between 1.5 & 4.5 kms a.s.l. over Jharkhand and adjoining 

Orissa. 


RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 23 Jul to 0830 hours IST of 24Jul): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Kerala and northeastern states; at many places over Himachal 

Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, Konkan & Goa, Madhya 

Maharashtra, Vidarbha, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal & Sikkim; at a few places over 

Uttarakhand, Gujarat region, Lakshadweep, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Orissa and at one or two 

places over Punjab, south Haryana, Delhi, east Rajasthan, Saurashtra, Marathawada, interior 

Karnataka, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Tamilnadu and Jharkhand. Weather remained mainly dry 

over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) recorded at 0830 

hours IST of today are: Cherrapunji16, Passighat12, Honavar and Pendra7 each, Agartala and 

Hoshangabad6each, Bhagalpur, Ramagundam, Mahabaleshwar, Fursatganj and Barabanki4 each, 

North Lakhimpur5 and Koraput, Chandigarh, Raisen, Nahan, Silchar and Balurghat3 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Uttar Pradesh, south 

Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, south Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, south 

Chhattisgarh, north Madhya Maharashtra, north Andhra Pradesh, northeastern states, north and 

adjoining central Bay of Bengal and Andaman sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of 

the country. 

Sagarkanya: 00 UTC sounding of 23 rd July Mostly clear sky with thin cirrus and few cumulus 

clouds. 

Sagarnidhi: Not available. 

33



34

Date: 23 rd July 2012 



‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level is near its normal position and eastern end 

is deeping in to central Bay of Bengal and now it is passing through Anupgarh, Dholpur, 

Satna,Daltongunj, Calcutta and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level now runs from Goa coast to Kerala coast. 

‣ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Jharkhand and adjoining Orissa 

Between 1.5 and 4.5 Km above mean sea level is near. 

‣ TD over W Pacific/ NE Philippines centred near 18N/124E on 20 th has further intensified 

and has moved WNW-ward and now it is over South China Sea centred near 

20.5N/114.8E, Intensity T4.0 (VICENTE) and likely to move in NW direction and will 

cross China near 22N/113E by tomorrow morning. 

‣ Mascarene high is well eastward over central Indian Ocean near 38S/91E (1034mb). 

Baroclinic low (44.6S/17.5E, CP: 998.8mb) over South Africa has moved ENE-wards and 

now centred near 41.2S/35.2E (CP: 999mb). Ridge of the following anticyclone is more 

East-west oriented. So as such southerly flow over Madagascar high is less likely to take 

place. 


Rainfall has occurred atmost places over Madhya Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizora 

m, Tripura, Vidarbha; at manyplaces over Himachal Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam, Nag 

aland, Manipur, Chhattisgarh, Orissa,Konkan & Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala; at a few place 

s over east Rajasthan,Gujarat region, westUttarPradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, interior Karnataka,Telan 

gana, south coastal Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep andat one or two places over Uttarakhand, Jam 

mu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, west Rajasthan, east UttarPradesh, Rayalaseema, south Ta 

milnadu and Andaman & Nicobar islands. Weather remained mainly dry overthe rest parts of the c 

ountry. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: 

Chandrapur22, Cherrapunji14, Betul and Agumbe9 each, Panchkula-8, Ujjain and 

Mahabaleshwar7 each, Banswara, Bagdogra and Valparai6 each, Pasighat, Dehradun, 

Najibabad5 each, Chandigarh, Amraoti, Washim Shajapur and Nimach4 each and Mandla, 

Ratlam, Silchar, Dibrugarh, Bhopal, Mangalore, Rewa, Akola, Bramhapuri and Guna3 each. 


Main convective clouds are seen over South China Sea. Clouds over Central India are mainly 

low/middle level clouds. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: At 925mb: A cyclonic circulation in lower troposphere lying over NW MP will move 

over west MP and its reminent is likely to move NW-wards. It is weakening in 72hrs. However a 

cyclonic circulation is going to form over West Bengal again forming on 26 th July in 72hrs 

forecast. 

ECMWF: Monsoon trough is well formed at surface. 

At 850mb: In ECMWF charts upper level cyclonic circulation over Chhattisgarh region move 

towards Bihar and then NW-wards in 72hrs forecast. On 25 th Tropical cyclone striking over China 

coast near 22N and forecast shows downscale amplification by formation of cyclonic circulation 

over North BoB. In 72hr forecast both cyclonic circulations over West Bengal and West MP are 

present with very well positioned monsoon trough. And strong westerly flow over BoB between 

17-22N. Over Arabian Sea low level Jet is weak and bifurcating towards Srilanka. 

35

Rainfall: 24hr rainfall shows heavy rain in S-W sector of the low over West MP. Another rain 

band is lying over foot hills and east India. 48hr forecast valid on 25 th shows major rain band over 

foot hills and adjoining West UP. 72hr forecast valid on 26 th show another patch of rain appearing 

over North BoB where ship is located. A rain band is also seen over West UP adjoining Haryana/ 

Delhi. In 96hhr forecast rain band is considerably shifted southwards with formation of cyclonic 

circulation over BoB. 

UKMO Model: At 850mb: In 24 hrs forecast cyclonic circulation over Bihar and adjoining area 

has weakened and monsoon trough northwards. In 48hr forecast valid on 25 th with the striking 

of Tropical cyclone over China, monsoon trough is again well formed over India. In 72-96hr 

forecast valid for 26 th &27 th model does not show formation of any cyclonic circulation over BoB 

and westerlies will continue over Gangetic plains and convergence over Delhi. 

Rainfall: In 24hr forecast rain patches are seen over Chhattisgarh, East MP and foothills. On 25 th 

rain band is shifted southwards and it is E-W oriented ranging from West Bengal to East MP. 

At 200mb all models shows Tibetan anti cyclone is south of its normal position and also its 

dominant cell over western part of Tibet adjoining Nepal. All models are also showing a trough in 

westerly approaching NW India by 26 th July. However GFS charts does not show too much affect 

over India as it is moving NE-wards very fast. 



As seen in actual observations and forecast, rain is concentrated near the disturbances and 

all India rainfall is weak. So possibility of formation of down scale amplification over North BoB 

is crucial. Rain would occur in patches during next three days. So recovery in all India scale is 

not forcing and extended outlook also not good as westerly trough is approaching. 


Considering the current observations, no IOP is declared. 

36




‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozpur Delhi, Lucknow, 

Daltongunj, Bankura and thence southeastwards to central Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The feeble off shore trough at mean sea level from Konkan coast to Kerala 

coast persists. 

‣ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Jharkhand and adjoining areas of Orissa and 

Gangetic West Bengal in lower levels. 

‣ Pressure gradient between Trivandrum & Mumbai is 5.3 mb whereas it is about 

between Kolkata and Portblair. 

‣ There is no meridional gradient of SST over Bay of Bengal. 

8.9mb 

‣ Ship reports in the North Bob give low level maxima about 16m/s. But Sagarnidhi in 

Central BoB gives low level maxima about 10m/s. 

‣ Sagarnidhi reported isothermal layer near 850mb. 


Rainfall has occurredat most places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh; at many places over Ut 

tarakhand, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, 

Orissa, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep coastal Karnataka, Kerala, West Bengal & 

Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh,Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram; at a few place 

s over Jammu & Kashmir, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, Telangana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh and 

Gujarat region and at one or two places over Punjab, Haryana, Marathawada, interior 

Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Saurashtra. Weather remained mainly dry over rest parts of the 

country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above)recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: S 

idhiand Gazipur11 each, Rewa10, Ambikapur9, Allahabad8, Mahabaleshwar, Jabalpur and Um 

aria7 each, ursatganj and Dehradun, Narsinghpur, Dharamshala6 each, Gangtok, Shimla, 

Lucknow, Khajuraho,Tadong, Datia, Champa, Darjeeling, Aligarh, Banda and Moradabad5 each 

and Tehri, Pantnagar Patna, Gorakhpur, Sagar, Damoh, Pachmarhi, Cherrapunji, Bilaspur, 

Kalingpong, Baghdogra, Najibabad and Hamirpur4 each 


INSAT imageries show main convective cloud over BoB North of 18N Orissa, N-Coastal AP, MP, 

UP and another patch over N-Vietnam, SE-China adjoining South China Sea. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: At 850 mb: Analysis shows formation of cyclonic circulation over North BoB and 

formation of another circulation over West Bengal, Orissa region between 26 th to 30 th July. 

Western end of monsoon trough is oscillating between foothills and south of Delhi. Forecast 

shows more northward movement of tropical cyclone over east of Philippines. So possibility of 

striking South China Coast is not present. Hence it is not likely to influence monsoon favourably. 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone is well positioned between 25 th -30 th July. So as far as upper 

troposphere is concerned situation is much better. 

37

Rainfall: Rainfall forecast for first two days shows movement from North MP to West MP region 

and then further moving towards north by 20 th . Another rainfall patch may develop over West 

Bengal and Orissa region by 28 th July. On 29 th western Himalayan foothills show increase in 

rainfall activity and a rain patch also over west Bengal and Orissa region. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: Analysis shows cyclonic. Cir over Chhattisgarh and easterlies are extending up to 

Delhi. Wind maxima over west coast are weak. 24hr forecast shows cyclonic circulation over 

North Orissa adjoining Jharkhand. Cyclonic circulation shows westward shift in 48hr forecast. So 

monsoon trough will remain in near normal position. Whereas GFS was showing northward shift 

of western end of monsoon trough. 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone is lying over Central Tibet and well marked. Winds over Delhi are 

easterlies and about 20kts by 29 th . 

Rainfall: Rainfall belt will mainly concentrated between 22-25N and more over West MP and 

Gujarat regions and another patch over Jharkhand and adjoining areas. `On 29 th rainfall belt is 

shifting to foot hills as seen in GFS. On 30 th the rainfall belt is lying from Gujarat to Thailand 

through Central India, Orissa and West Bengal. Another patch is appearing over Philippines which 

may be due to formation of depression over that region. There is no rain patches over China as it 

has weakened. 

UKMO Model: 

At 850mb: In the first 48hrs forecast Cyclonic circulation is over West Bengal and monsoon 

trough is well positioned. Good cyclonic vorticity is observed from Gangetic plains to West 

Bengal. 96hr forecast shows northward shifting of eastern end of monsoon trough where as 

western end is still well positioned over West MP adjoining Rajasthan. It is also showing a major 

Tropical Cyclone over NE of Philippines. 

At 500mb: westerly trough is shown to move eastward with extension over North Pakistan. But it 

is moving away by 29 th . 

At 200mb: All three models are more or less in agreement but UKMO shows very strong cross 

equatorial flow over BoB. 

Rainfall: Rainfall is basically to south of monsoon trough about 25N which persists and 

weakening in day 4 (96hr) forecast and then shifting to foothills. 

RS/RW Data: 

11 Station have reported ascent above 100hPa levels. 


The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over east Madhya Pradesh and active over Sub- 

Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. It 

has been subdued over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, west Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, 

Marathwada and Rayalaseema. 

TS (VICENTE) over South China Sea has moved WNW-ward and made landfall 

over SE China (south of Hong Kong) near 22.2N/112.8E at around 2000UTC of 23 rd Jul. TS is 

downgraded to depression and now lies over extreme SE China adjoining Vietnam centred near 

22.0N/107.0E (0300UTC of 25Jul2012) and further likely to move westward. This system is 

expected to decline over North Vietnam. IMD GFS & UKMO models shows formation of another 

38

storm over West Pacific Ocean east of Philippines and more northward movement in next 3-4 

days. 

All the models do not show any great revival of monsoon except well positioned monsoon trough 

by GFS and ECMWF. So no major development is expected to see in next 3-4 days. 


39



40




‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Anupgarh, Jaipur, 

Sheopur, Satna, Daltonganj, Digha and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of 

Bengal. It extends upto 1.5 Kms a.s.l. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to 

Lakshadweep area now lies off Goa–Karnataka coasts. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels over Northwest Bay of 

Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal & Orissa now lies over 

Jharkhand and adjoining areas of Gangetic West Bengal and north Orissa , tilting 

southwestwards with height. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Haryana and neighbourhood now lies over Punjab and 

neighbourhood and extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. lies over northwest Madhya Pradesh 

and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh. 

‣ There is no meridional gradient in SST over BoB. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha; at 

many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Gangetic West 

Bengal, Orissa, west Madhya Pradesh, interior Karnataka, west coast, northeastern states and 

Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, 

Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra and at one or two places over rest parts of the country 

outside Punjab, Haryana, west Rajasthan and Saurashtra & Kutch where weather remained mainly 

dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: 

Gondia20, Agumbe17, Mandla10, Pachmani8,Phulbani and Cherrapunji7each, Hosangabad, 

Jamshedpur, Seoni, Kohima and Medikeri6 each, Tikamgarh and Digboi 5each, Ratnagiri, 

Ramgundam, Rewa, Passighat, Guna, Gwalior, Sagar, Nagpur, Gopalpur, Mahabalashwar, 

Kurnool, Portblair, Silchar, Carnicobar and Golaghat3 each. 


INSAT imageries show convective cloud over south MP adjoining Maharashtra, Orissa and north 

BoB. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850 mb: Monsoon trough continues to be in fairly good position. But south of it winds over 

Central India are westerly to north westerly. A cyclonic circulation exists over UP and another 

over West Bengal. Cyclonic circulation over West Bengal is shown to move in the westward 

direction and becoming a part of monsoon trough on 28 th & 29 th . 

At 500mb: Shear line passes through 18-20N. 48hr forecast shows northward movement of shear 

line at around 22N. There is no development over BoB, Gujarat coast and west Pacific region. In 

41

the Pacific region no tropical cyclone is expected as model is not showing any further 

development. 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone remains near 31/32N and well positioned with respect to monsoon 

trough. However near equator there is no cross equatorial component in the easterly flow. TEJ is 

rather weak 15kts near equator in 200mb. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: Weak cyclonic circulation over West Bengal and adjoining areas which is becoming a 

part of monsoon trough on 28 th -29 th with slight northward movement. But shear between 20N-25N 

is significant. Winds at Nagpur are 30-35kts and winds at Bhopal are weak. 

The main difference between GFS and ECMWF is primarily between wind directions south of 

monsoon trough. GFS model shows north westerly component where as ECMWF shows westerly 

component. In any case region between 20-25N and 80E where wide spread rainfall is expected. 

UKMO Model: 

At 850mb: UKMO charts also shows cyclonic circulation over West Bengal which is becoming a 

part of monsoon trough but shall tend up to west UP and New Delhi. Winds over Central India are 

westerly as confirmed by ECMWF charts whereas GFS shows north westerly. A major Tropical 

cyclone development is seen in Philippines Sea. Its movement and intensification is to be 

monitored from 30 th July. On Mascarene side no baroclinic system is expected to move to South 

Africa in next 3-4 days. 

At 200mb: As in previous analysis shows movement of westerly trough along 70-75E & north of 

40N, which weakens by 30 th . 



Monsoon trough continues to be slightly south of the normal position with a weak low over 

Jharkhand. The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Telangana and active over Madhya 

Pradesh and coastal & south interior Karnataka. It has been subdued over Haryana and Saurashtra 

& Kutch. 

Over all, the monsoon trough in the model forecast appears to remain well positioned with feeble 

cyclonic circulation. Eastern end of monsoon trough is expected to move near foothills and 

western end near normal position. So rain is expected to south of monsoon trough between 20-25N 

in organised way. Since pressure gradient over west coast are near normal. Orographic rain may 

take place along coastal Karnataka to south Konkan. Northeast India does not expect to get heavy 

rainfall. So rainfall till 29 th July is expected to be 80% normal as India as a whole. 

.Intensive Observation Period (IOP): Considering the current observations, no IOP is declared. 

42

850hPa 00 UTC wind analysis from IMD-GFS, ECMWF & 0600 UTC INSAT Satellite 

Imagery. 27 July 2012. 

43




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over east Rajasthan and west Madhya Pradesh 

and active over Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh 

and east Madhya Pradesh. It has been subdued over Saurashtra & Kutch, Marathwada and 

interior Karnataka. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Ferozepur, Gurgaon, 

Mainpuri, Banda, Daltonganj, Midnapur and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of 

Bengal. It extends upto 1.5 Kms a.s.l. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from Karnataka coast to Lakshadweep area 

now runs from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels lies over Gangetic West 

Bengal and neighbourhood. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and adjoining areas of Gangetic West Bengal 

and north Orissa now lies over central parts of Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya 

Pradesh and extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation extending upto 1.5 kms a.s.l. over Haryana and neighbourhood 

now lies over Punjab and neighbourhood. 


Rainfall has occurred at mostplaces over Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim; at many places 

over Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Orissa, 

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, 

coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram 

and Tripura; at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar 

islands and at one or two places over Punjab, Haryana Delhi, northwest Rajasthan, Marathwada, 

interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Gujarat region and Saurashtra. Weather remained 

mainly dry over remaining parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (2 cm and 

above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Mahabaleshwar17, Nowgong12, 

Chandbali, Dharamshala and Raipur13, Bhira, Nahan, Moradabad, Banda and Mana11 each, 

Rewa10, Puri9, Sundernagar and Rajgarh8 each, Raisen7, Paradip, Hoshangabad, 

Cherrapunji and Durg6 each and Dehradun, Shajapur, Harnai, Half long, Datia, Agumbe, 

Kujanagaun and Orai5 each 

Satellite Inference 

There is deep band of cloud extending from North BoB to East Rajasthan along Chhattisgarh, 

Orissa and Madhya Pradesh. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: Forecast charts shows cyclonic circulation is likely to move Northwest Bihar and 

weakens on 4 th August. Another cyclonic circulation is also seen over West Bengal. The western 

end of monsoon trough is shifting northward. 

Rainfall: There is a monsoon rain band over Central India up to 31 st July which afterwards shift 

44

towards foothills on 1 st Aug. Rain band is located between Delhi, Punjab and West MP up to North 

West India. There will be heavy rain over Konkan. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: the forecast charts of GFS and ECMWF are broadly in good agreement, as low 

pressure area are more or less strengthen over Orissa and adjoining areas. Monsoon trough is in 

normal position over 20N and western end of monsoon trough is showing northward movement. 

Day 5 forecast (120hr) shows a well marked low over Northwest BoB 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone is over West and shifts further westward (up to 96hr) which is a 

favourable condition. Wind strength at Chennai latitude is about 50-55kts. 

Rainfall: Rain band is centred along Central India, Sub-Himalayan region and also over Konkan, 

which is also shown by GFS. So ECMWF and GFS are broadly in agreement. Forecast of day 4 

shows heavy rain over Orissa & Chhattisgarh, whereas on day 5 it will be over North BoB. 

UKMO Model: 

At 850mb: There is broad agreement between GFS, ECMWF and UKMO up to 3 rd Aug. Tropical 

cyclone over North Philippines is intensifying and moving North-westward & strikes China Coast 

on 3 rd , whereas in GFS it intensifies on 3 rd after moving North-eastwards and does not have any 

chance of striking China coast. 



The upper air cyclonic circulation lying over North MP now moved over Northeast Rajasthan. The 

monsoon trough is in normal position and dipping into BoB. 


Considering the current observations, IOP is declared for Orissa and West Bengal. There will be 

heavy rain over Orissa and West Bengal on 2 nd & 3 rd August. 

IOP for Sagar Kanya: Weather is likely to be disturbed in your region from 1st -2 nd August. 

45



46

Date: 1 st August 2012 



‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through FerozpurDelhi, Banda, Dalt 

onganj, Bankura, Kolkata and thence south east wards to east central Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over central Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya 

Pradesh now lies over west Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood in lower levels. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over southwest Punjab and adjoining 

Rajasthan and neighbourhood in lower levels. 

‣ The feeble off shore trough at mean sea level runs from north Karnataka 

coast to Kerala coast. 

northwest 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gangetic West Bengal and neighbour-hood 

now lies over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand and extends up 

to mid tropospheric levels, tilting south-westwards with height. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh; at many places over 

western Himalayan region, west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, north Andhra 

Pradesh and northeastern states; At a few places over Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, east 

Rajasthan, Gujarat region, Kerala and east India and at one or two places over rest parts of the 


Mahabaleshwar24, Katra14, Bhira11, Jammu10, Pune8, Nagpur7, Satara6, Rewa and Datia5 each, 

Bramhapuri, Sidhi, Daltonganj, Shimla, Dharamshala, Gondia and Golaghat4 each and Panambur, 

Narsapur, Nandigama Bulsar, Mount Abu, Raipur, Mana, Champa, Shirali, Aligarh and 

Moradabad3 each 


Weak to moderate convective clouds are observed from Orissa to Gujarat and over Haryana, west 

UP, Uttrakhand, HP adjoining J&K. A deep convective cloud band is also observed over Central 

BoB along 15N and north Andaman Sea. 

Radar Inference: Radar images from Kolkata to Patiala show that there was organised convection 

on 30 th July which weakens on 31 st July. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: Shows cyclonic circulation persisting over West Bengal and adjoining North BoB. The 

western end of monsoon trough, west of 80E remains between foothills and north Punjab. There is 

no system over south China Sea which is going to affect our region. 

At 700mb: Ridge is persisting over western India and Pakistan which is weakening on 2 nd and 4 th 

August. A well marked monsoon trough is observed between 25-27N in the west and at around 

22N over BoB. 

47

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone is well positioned, west of 80E. But by 4 th Aug it showing 

tendency to shift eastward. And also a trough line exists along 75E. Cross equatorial flow in the 

BoB sector is fairly maintained and it is about 50kts. In the Pacific, trough in westerly is dipping 

up to 30N/105E which may affect movement of Typhoon. 

Rainfall: Rainfall is being shown mainly East of 80E and centred around 22-30N. This means 

rainfall may happen over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and East MP & 

East UP. However over north BoB clouding may decrease. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: Monsoon Trough is well positioned and it shows development of a cyclonic circulation 

over north BoB on 4 th August. This cyclonic circulation is moving westward along 22N and to its 

north strong easterly flow is observed over Gangetic plains. This is in contrast with GFS model 

which was showing weak monsoon trough and movement of western end of monsoon trough to the 

foothills. 

At 200mb: More or less consistent with the circulation features shown by GFS model. 



During last three days all India rainfall has slightly remain above normal, as a result of near normal 

position of monsoon trough and good pressure gradients over BoB. Important point to notice in 

July is that the period between 25 th June to 27 th July happens in the rising daily normal but actual 

rainfall many days had been below normal. What is to be noticed is whether august rainfall for 

next several days happens to be normal or otherwise. Northeast India rainfall has observed a 

below normal epoch between 21 st -31 st July. Same is by & large true for southern Peninsula. 

Rainfall over Central India is the positive side of the normal. Overall, rainfall over India will be 

maintained but no considerable improvement is expected during next 3-4days. 

Mascarene high remain well east of around 80E and baroclinic disturbance passing south of Africa 

passes through near about 50S. Ridge over Mozambique Channel is absent. 

Tropical cyclone over West Pacific adjoining Philippines has attended strength of Typhoon centred 

near 23.7N/123E, intensity T4.5/5.0. System is likely to strike China along 25N, so it may not 

have any effect on monsoon. 


IOP for Sagar Kanya: Cloudiness may continuously increase in your (Sagarkanya) area of 

operation and may enhance on 3-4 th August. Depending on your own observation, you may have 

IOP on 3 rd & 4 th August. 

48


INSAT Satellite Imagery. 01 August 2012. 

49

INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 2 nd AUGUST 2012 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been active over Assam & Meghalaya. It has been subdued 

over Punjab, west Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, south 

interior Karnataka and Kerala. 

‣ The western part of the axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level runs close to the 

foothills of the Himalayas and the eastern part passes through Baharaich, Ballia, Dumka, 

Kolkata and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 Km 

a.s.l. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Gangetic West 

Bengal between 2.1 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from Karnataka coast to Kerala coast has 

become less marked. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Jharkhand has become 

less marked. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood has become less 

marked. 

‣ The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over eastern parts of Jammu & 

Kashmir has moved away northeastwards. 


RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 2Aug to 0830 hours IST of 3rdf Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand; at many places over 

Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, interior 

Orissa, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, northeastern states, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan 

& Goa, Karnataka, north Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over 

Gangetic west Bengal, coastal Orissa, west Madhya Pradesh and Kerala and at one or two places 

over rest parts of the country outside west Rajasthan, Tamilnadu and Lakshadweep where weather 

remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST 

of today are: Pantnagar15, Mahabaleshwar13, Vengurla12, Gaya11, Mana9, Panjim8, Raipur, 

Katra and Churk7 each, Koraput, Sultanpur, Satara, Rewa, Sidhi and Sambhalpur6 each, Gangtok, 

Ranchi and Agumbe5each, Kailashar, Daltonganj, Baharaich, Khajuraho, Titlagarh, Bhawnipatna, 

Banda, Bhira, Nazimabad and Hamirpur4each and Kakinada, Visakhapatnam, Ramagundam, 

Ratnagiri, Satara, Keonjhargarh, Tadong, Shillong, Bareilly, Varanasi, Hardoi, Shirali and 

Bhadrachalam3 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Uttrakhand, Uttar 

Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, north Andhra Pradesh, north 

Andaman sea and Bay of Bengal. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Damthang-6, Gajoldoba-6, Champasari-4, 

Mangan-4, Tadong-4, Gangtok (AWS)-4, Bagrakote-3, Singla Bazar-3, Sukiapokhri-3, Khanitar-3, 

Sevoke-3, Kalimpong-3, Namchi (AWS)-3, Gangtok-3, Kalimpong (AWS)-2, Gyalsing (AWS)-2, 

Darjeeling-2, Pedong-2, Domohani-2, Mathabhanga-2, Majitar-2, Rongo-1, Neora-1, Jalpaiguri-1, 

Chengmari/Diana-1, Murti-1, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL: Panagarh (IAF)-1, Asansol(CWC)- 

50

1, ODISHA: Jujumura (ARG)-6, Batagaon-5, Naktideul-4, Burla (ARG)-3, Jamankira-3, 

Rairakhol-3, Sambalpur-2, Jeypore-2, Boudhgarh-1, Khairamal-1, Kashipur (ARG)-1, Rengali-1, 

Hirakud-1, Jaipatna-1, Talcher-1, Koraput-1, Sonepur-1, Deogarh-1, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-1, 

Mohana-1, Similiguda (AWS)-1, Betanati (ARG)-1, Kosagumda-1, Ullunda (ARG)-1, Athmalik- 

1, Phiringia (ARG)-1, Binika-1, Rajkishorenagar-1. 

Sagarkanya: 

Based on 00UTC RS data of 01 Aug 

SST=28.3 to 28.4 C. Experiencing some sunshine on 01 Aug morning. 

Based on 00UTC RS data of 02 Aug 

SST=28.4 C. partially cloud covered with some sunshine on 2 nd Aug morning. No rains. 

51



52

INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 3 rd AUGUST 2012 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Madhya Maharashtra and active over 

Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Chattisgarh, coastal Andhra Pradesh and 

Telangana. It has been subdued over Gangetic West Bengal, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat 

State, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Kerala. 

‣ Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and 

adjoining Gangetic West Bengal, a low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of 

Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of north Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal. Associated 

upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards 

with height. 

‣ The western part of the axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level continues to run close 

to the foothills of the Himalayas and the eastern part passes through Gorakhpur, Dehri, 

Ranchi, centre of the low pressure area and thence Southeastwards to east central Bay of 

Bengal. 


RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 3 rd Aug to 0830 hours IST of 4 th Aug): ): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Konkan & Goa and coastal Karnataka; at 

many places over western Himalayan region, Bihar, Jharkhand, east Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic 

West Bengal, Orissa, Vidarbha and north & coastal Andhra Pradesh; at a few places over 

northeastern states, Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka and Kerala and at one or two places 

over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4cm and above) recorded at 0830 

hours IST of today are: Dehradun15, Hirakud and Durg13 each, Ambikapur12, Mukteshwar and 

Mahabaleshwar10 each, Champa9, Gorakhpur and Raipur8 each, Tehri, Katra, Sambalpur, Bhira 

and Keonjhargarh7 each, Barabanki, Batote and Meerut6 each, Lucknow, Bharamapuri, Puri, 

Kakinada and Pahalgam5 each and Sundargarh, Moradabad, Pantnagar, Agartala, Balasore, 

Titlagarh, Narsinghpur and Satna4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of west Uttar Pradesh, 

Chhatishgarh, Vidarhba, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, north Tamilnadu, north Andaman & Nicobar 

Islands and Bay of Bengal. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

53

RAINFALL: 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Bagrakote-10, Darjeeling(State)-5, 

Darjeeling-5, Sevoke-5, Namchi (AWS)-5, Gyalsing (AWS)-5, Singla Bazar-5, Gangtok-5, 

Kalimpong-4, Mangan-4, Namthang-4, Gajoldoba-4, Damthang-4, Kalimpong (AWS)-3, Tadong- 

3, Gangtok (AWS)-3, Sukiapokhri-3, Champasari-3, Pedong-2, Pundibari (AWS)-2, Khanitar-2, 

Salbari-2, Neora-2, Bagdogra (IAF)-1, Majitar-1, Cooch Behar-1, GANGETIC WEST BENGAL: 

Joypur(State)-11, Purihansa-6, Simula-5, Jhalda-4, Kalna-3, Purulia (AWS)-2, Barrackpur(IAF)- 

2, Nalhati-2, Jhargram-1, Ranaghat-1, Gheropara-1, Indus-1, Phulberia-1, Tamluk (AWS)-1, 

Khirpai-1, ODISHA: Baliguda-29, Madanpur Rampur-22, K Nuagaon (ARG)-14, Paikmal-13, 

Kotagarh-12, Phiringia (ARG)-11, Joda (ARG)-10, Lanjigarh-9, Kotraguda-7, Thakurmunda-7, 

Junagarh-7, Atabira (ARG)-7, Sambalpur-6, Ambabhona-6, Kantamal-6, Koraput-6, Jaipatna-5, 

Jharbandh (ARG)-5, Reamal-5, Belgaon-5, Nawapara-5, Laikera-5, Turekela-4, Burla (ARG)-4, 

Champua-4, Bhawanipatna-4, Komna-4, Jeypore-4, Bissem-Cuttack-4, Sundargarh-4, Titlagarh-4, 

Deogarh-4, Sinapali (ARG)-3, Khairamal-3, Rajgangpur-3, Karanjia-3, Keiri (AWS)-3, Gudari-3, 

Sonepur-3, Anandpur-3, Tentulikhunti (ARG)-3, Keonjhargarh-3, Jamankira-3, Bargaon-2, 

Pottangi-2, Raighar (ARG)-2, Hirakud-2, Khariar-2, Padampur-2, Jharsuguda-2, Madhabarida-2, 

Batagaon-2, Bijepur-2, Jamsolaghat-2, Chandbali-2, Chandahandi (ARG)-2, Swam-Patna-2, 

Bhadrak (AWS)-2, Phulbani-2, Nawarangpur-2, Gunupur-1, Rajkishorenagar-1, Ghatagaon-1, 

Kuchinda-1, Hemgiri-1, Lakhanpur (ARG)-1, Jhorigam (ARG)-1, Baripada-1, Mandira Dam-1, 

Harichandanpur (ARG)-1, Bhanjnagar-1, Tiring-1, Rayagada-1, Rairakhol-1, Patnagarh-1, 

Kosagumda-1, Tihidi (ARG)-1, Paralakhemundi-1, Udala-1, Barpalli (ARG)-1, Berhampur-1, 

Daitari-1, Lahunipara-1, Bangiriposi-1, 

54



55

Date: 3 rd August 2012 



‣ Under the influence of upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal & 

neighbourhood, a low pressure area has formed over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining 

coastal areas of north Orissa and West Bengal. The associated cyclonic circulation extends up 

to midtropospheric levels, tilting south-westwards with height. 

‣ The Western end of monsoon trough runs close to foot hills of Himalaya and Eastern end of 

monsoon trough passes through Gorakhpur, Dehri, Ranchi, centre of low pressure area and 

thence south-eastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand; at 

many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh east Madhya Pradesh, 

Chhattisgarh, interior Orissa, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, north eastern states, 

Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan & Goa Karnataka, north Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar 

Islands; at a few places over Gangetic west Bengal, 

coastal Orissa, west MadhyaPradesh and Keralaand at one or two places over rest parts of the coun 

try outside west Rajasthan, Tamilnaduand Lakshadweep where weather remained mainly dry. The 

chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) recordedat 0830 hours IST of today are: Pantnagar15, 

Mahabaleshwar13,Vengurla12, Gaya11, Mana9, Panjim8, Raipur, Katra and Churk7 each, 

Koraput, Sultanpur, Satara, Rewa, Sidhi and Sambhalpur6 each, Gangtok, Ranchi and 

Agumbe5 each, Kailashar, Daltonganj, Baharaich, Khajuraho, Titlagarh, Bhawnipatna Banda, 

Bhira, Nazimabad and Hamirpur4 each and Kakinada, Visakhapatnam, Ramagundam, 

Ratnagiri, Satara, Keonjhargarh, Tadong, Shillong, Bareilly, Varanasi, 

Hardoi, Shirali andBhadrachalam3 each. 


Convective clouds are observed over UP, West Nepal, East MP Chattisgarh, East Vidharbha, 

Telangana, central BoB (12N-20N) & south Arakan coast. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: 48 hrs forecast Charts of 01 August/00UTC valid for 03 august showed that monsoon 

trough will be along the foothills west of 83E and formation of cyclonic circulation over north 

BoB. 3 rd August/00UTC analysis shows monsoon trough is near foothills up to 81E and cyclonic 

circulation over northwest BoB (23N/87E). So validation shows broad agreement of formation of 

cyclonic circulation in which observation is about 200km south of 48 hr forecast. 3 rd 

August/00UTC analysis also shows broad band of westerlies (40-45kts) from 13-17N. It is in the 

area of the Sagarkanya. GFS based on 3 rd August show cyclonic circulation over BoB may retain 

its strength without significant intensification and move north-westward over Jharkhand area 

centred near 23N/86E. There is easterly flow of moderate strength prevailing over Gangetic plains. 

Eastern part of low level jet is of moderate strength over Konkan coast. 

56

At 700mb: Cyclonic circulation over North BoB extends up to 700mb. 

At 500mb: There is east-west shear line along 18-20N. 

At 200mb: Analysis shows Tibetan anticyclone is lying along 31N/80E. There is a strong cross 

equatorial flow over BoB. Forecast for next three days shows south-eastward (around 30N/85E) 

shift of Tibetan anticyclone. 

24hr forecast shows easterly Jet flow across Tamilnadu is 50kts.Forecasts charts also shows 

strengthening of sub-tropical westerlies up to 35N. 48hr forecast shows further north-eastward 

movement of Tibetan anticyclone as westerly trough is approaching around 72-73E and tropical 

easterly jet (TEJ) across Tamilnadu is further weakening. 72hr forecast shows westerly trough has 

amplifies and slightly retro-gated positioning along 68E. 

Rainfall: Usually expected heavy rainfall in the southwest sector of the cyclonic circulation is not 

shown by GFS model. But west of cyclonic circulation moderate rainfall is shown over MP and 

south UP. Forecast also shows heavy rainfall over Konkan and Goa coasts. 

ECMWF: 1 st Aug forecast has shown low pressure area on 3 rd and possible depression on 4 th and 

position is very close to forecast position. 

At 850mb: cyclonic circulation over north BoB is intensifying in 24hrs forecast and after entering 

Orissa coast it is weakening and continue to move westwards. The monsoon trough remains along 

22-25N and wind strength over central BoB is about 30-35Kts. 

At 700mb: Cyclonic circulation over north BoB remains visible and moving WNWly. 

At 200mb: Analysis shows Tibetan anticyclone is well west of 70E (31N/65E). Cross-equatorial 

flow is quite strong on BoB. Tropical easterly jet (TEJ) is about 50-60Kts over Tamilnadu. 48hrs 

forecast shows reformation of Tibetan anticyclone near 30N/90E. Westerly trough is approaching 

70E and it has also retrogated to 68E in 72hrs forecast. This is also same in GFS forecast. 

Rainfall: For the next 3 days main rainfall belt is concentrated between 18-2-N/85-88E and over 

India it is shifting from East MP to west UP. Konkan and Goa coast will have moderate rainfall 

but rainfall will considerably decrease over west Bengal, Bihar and East UP by 6 th Aug. 

UKMO: 

At 850mb: 48hr forecast based on 1 st Aug (valid for 3 rd Aug) have shown a well marked cyclonic 

circulation over NW BOB and over Orissa whereas monsoon trough lies near foothills west of 

80E. 24hr forecast based on 2 nd Aug shows cyclonic circulation is over land and 48-72hr forecast 

shows NW-ward movement of cyclonic circulation and on 6 th it is around 24N/80E with trough 

going towards west MP, east Rajasthan rather than going towards Gujarat as shown in ECMWF. 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone is westward, cross equatorial flow is strong over BoB, TEJ is 

about 50-60kts over Tamilnadu. 48hr forecast shows eastward movement of Tibetan anticyclone 

and fairly deep retrograded trough lies along 70E which is not seen in other models. In 72hr 

forecast trough is trough is continuously retrograding and fairly deep along 68E. 

Forecasts are similar though UKMO shows westerly trough starts retrograding at about 70E and 

other two models shows in-situ trough starts retrograding at about 68E. 

Rainfall: Heavy rainfall belt associated with cyclonic circulation remains over Orissa, 

Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand and Bihar area during next 4-5 days. West coast rainfall is confined to 

Konkan, Goa. Over Karnataka and Kerala coast the rainfall is less. 

57

ECMWF, CFS-V2 & JMA Extended Range Forecast: 

ECMWF: 

850hPa: 06 th -12 th August f/c shows low level jet is well positioned and a trough line from 

northwest BoB to north Gujarat. 13 th -19 th August f/c show LLJ is weakened and monsoon trough 

has moved northward. 

Rainfall: 06 th -12 th August f/c shows rainfall is concentrated from Orissa to MP. Positive 

anomalies remain over Konkan & Gujarat coasts. Overall most of India have negative anomaly. 

13 th -19 th August f/c show negative anomaly over west coast also except the belt west MP and 

adjoining west UP. Rainfall is by and large below normal over whole India. 

CFS-V2: 

850hPa: 04 th -10 th August f/c shows monsoon trough is lying between west UP, east MP, Orissa to 

West Bengal. This is shifting to foothills in next pentad 11-17th August as also seen in ECMWF. 

LLJ is weak during both these periods, i.e. 4 th -17 th August. 

Rainfall: 04 th -10 th August f/c shows entire west coast and some parts of central India have 

positive anomalies. 11 th -17 th f/c shows decrease in west coast rainfall. Main rainfall belt is moving 

along west MP, east UP, Bihar to West Bengal. It is showing improvement but not as much as 

ECMWF. 

JMA 

850mb: 04 th -10 th August f/c shows more or less same features as seen in ECMWF than CFS. 

Weakening of LLJ across India is observed between 4 th -17 th August. 

Rainfall: 04 th -10 th August f/c shows heavy rain above normal over Konkan, Goa and Gujarat, but 

not over Karnataka and Kerala. Rainfall is decreasing during 11 th -17 th August. Overall India as a 

whole rainfall is below normal 04 th -10 th August and remain so in subsequent period 

RS/RW Data: 

14 Station have reported ascent above 100hPa levels. 


Western end of monsoon trough has shifted northwards and at around 75E it is close to 32N. 

However eastern end is dipping in to BoB and probably through low pressure area over North BoB 

(20.5N/88E). Monsoon trough is running towards Bihar plateau. Pressure gradients are fairly well 

maintained over Bob and near normal over Arabian Sea. Since last three days all India rainfall has 

decreased and well below normal as much as 50% on 3 rd August. Mascarene high is centred near 

30.55S/83E with central pressure of 1031hPa. A baroclinic low pressure exists south of 

Madagascar near 32.39S/46.5E with central pressure 1007hPa. Tropical easterly Jet over India is 

around 13-15N with wind strength of about 60kts.Overall Signal is that significant development is 

cyclonic circulation over north BoB and it‟s northwesterly to westnorthwesterly movement. 

Rainfall belt will be confined mainly over eastern parts of central India and then may move 

towards Gujarat and East Rajasthan depending up on the movement of cyclonic circulation. 

Rainfall during next 3-4days is more likely to remain normal as India as a whole. Most of the 

tropical depressions/Typhoons over West pacific are forming around 25N and moving 

Northwesterly/ northwestnortherly. Hence they are not influencing Indian monsoon. 

58


Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and large scale features IOP is declared as 

follows: 

S.No. Met Sub-division Date for IOP 

1. Orissa, West Bengal 4 th , 5 th & 6 th August 2012 

2. Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand 5 th & 6 th August 

Action during IOP period: 0000/0600/1200 UTC RS/RW observations to be ascertained 

over the stations in above sub-divisions. 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 

INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 4 th AUGUST 2012 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of north 

Orissa and West Bengal persists. The associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 

midtropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards with height. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough has shifted sourthwards and passes through Ferozepur, 

Bhiwani, Agra, Allahabad, Daltonganj, Jamshedpur, centre of low pressure area and thence 

southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. 

‣ An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Punjab and neighbourhood in lower levels. 


♦ RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 4 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 5 th Aug): 

Rainfall has occurred at most places over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa and 

Chhattisgarh; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Uttar 

Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, northeastern states, 

north Andhra Pradesh, Vidarbha and West coast; at a few places over west Madhya Pradesh, 

Madhya Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, south Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands 

and at one or two places over rest parts of the country outside Haryana and Rajasthan where 

weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 

hours IST of today are: Koraput11, Rangia and Tehri9 each, Dehradun8, Sundergarh, Jagdalpur, 

Lengpui, Tikamgarh, Itanagar and Coochbehar6 each, Bhawanipatna, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur and 

Narsapur5 each and North Lakhimpur, Pachmarhi, Bankura, Daltongunj, Gaya, Mahabaleshwar, 

Hirakud and Rewa4 each. 

CLOUDS: Kalpana1Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of 

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Odisha, north Andhra Pradesh, north Andaman Sea and 

north & central Bay of Bengal. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

59



60

4 th AUGUST 2012 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Gyalsing (AWS)-4, GANGETIC WEST 

BENGAL: Purihansa-4, D.P.Ghat-3, Kakdwip (AWS)-2, Canning (AWS)-2, Kolkata (Dum 

Dum)-2, Bankura (AWS)-2, Kolkata (AWS)-2, Bankura-2, Canning-1, Digha-1, Bankura(CWC)- 

1, Durgachack-1, Chinsura (AWS)-1, Phulberia-1, Jhargram (AWS)-1, Kharidwar-1, Contai-1, 

Kansabati Dam-1, Basirhat(PTO)-1, Simula-1, Suri (AWS)-1, Suri (CWC)-1, Purulia (AWS)-1, 

Sagar Island (AWS)-1, ODISHA: Paikmal-24, Padampur-18, Nawapara-13, Burla (ARG)-13, 

Khaprakhol (ARG)-13, Banki (ARG)-13, Hirakud-13, Jharbandh (ARG)-12, Kakatpur-11, 

Danagadi (ARG)-11, Patnagarh-10, Betanati (ARG)-10, Nischintakoili (ARG)-10, Komna-9, 

Kaptipada (ARG)-9, Rairangpur-9, Kantamal-9, Binika-9, Anandpur-9, Banaigarh (AWS)-9, 

Balisankara (ARG)-8, Panposh-8, Gaisilet (ARG)-8, Bhuban (ARG)-8, Tarva (ARG)-8, 

Ghatagaon-7, Parjang (ARG)-7, Keonjhargarh-7, Sambalpur-7, Balimundali-7, Bari (ARG)-7, 

Sukinda-7, Bangiriposi-7, Sonepur-7, Khairamal-7, Kankadahad (ARG)-7, Mandira Dam-7, 

Jaleswar-7, Athgarh-7, Mahanga (ARG)-7, Nawana-7, Lahunipara-7, Pallahara-6, Malkangiri-6, 

Chandipur (AWS)-6, Soro-6, Bargarh-6, Hemgiri-6, Jaipur-6, Atabira (ARG)-6, Naraj-6, 

Lakhanpur (ARG)-5, Udala-5, Telkoi-5, NH-5 Gobindpur-5, Chandanpur-5, Batli (ARG)-5, 

Loisingha (ARG)-5, Pipili-5, Harabhanga-5, Puri-5, Barkote-5, Kantapada (ARG)-5, Tigiria 

(ARG)-5, Samakhunta (AWS)-5, Baliguda-4, Satyabadi (ARG)-4, Rajgangpur-4, Kesinga (ARG)- 

4, Sundargarh-4, Mundali-4, Korei (ARG)-4, Akhuapada-4, Bolangir-4, Salepur (ARG)-4, 

Madanpur Rampur-4, Naktideul-4, Altuma (CWC)-4, Kamakhyanagar-4, Dunguripalli-4, 

Titlagarh-4, Niali (ARG)-4, Narla (ARG)-4, Karanjia-4, Balasore-4, Alipingal-3, Ambabhona-3, 

Laikera-3, Jajpur-3, Belgaon-3, Jamsolaghat-3, Chandahandi (ARG)-3, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-3, 

Turekela-3, Tiring-3, Krishnaprasad-3, Sinapali (ARG)-3, Jhorigam (ARG)-3, Ullunda (ARG)-3, 

Remuna (ARG)-3, Jagatsinghpur (AWS)-3, Bhawanipatna-3, Sohela-3, Champua-3, Brahmagiri 

(AWS)-3, Baripada-3, Jenapur-3, Nimpara-3, Nilgiri-3, Astaranga (ARG)-3, Cuttack-3, 

Dhenkanal-3, Bijepur-3, Saintala (ARG)-3, Junagarh-3, Bamra (ARG)-3, Koraput-2, Reamal-2, 

Athmalik-2, Khariar-2, Jujumura (ARG)-2, Kotagarh-2, Harichandanpur (ARG)-2, Batagaon-2, 

Kaniha (ARG)-2, Ranital (AWS)-2, Tihidi (ARG)-2, K Nuagaon (ARG)-2, Kosagumda-2, Raighar 

(ARG)-2, Talcher-2, Kashinagar-2, Binjharpur (ARG)-2, Phiringia (ARG)-2, Dabugan (ARG)-2, 

Bargaon-2, Swam Patna-2, Jaipatna-2, Paralakhemundi-2, Lanjigarh-2, Tentulikhunti (ARG)-2, 

Umarkote-2, Deogarh-1, Balikuda (ARG)-1, Balipatna (ARG)-1, Kuchinda-1, Joda (ARG)-1, 

Raghunathpur (ARG)-1, Kirmira (ARG)-1, Kashipur (ARG)-1, Daitari-1, Chendipada-1, Rengali- 

1, Deogaon-1, Keiri (AWS)-1, Basudevpur (AWS)-1, Jharsuguda-1, Thakurmunda-1, Tikarpara-1, 

61

Kolabira (ARG)-1, Kendrapara-1, Bhadrak (AWS)-1, Belpada (ARG)-1, Rairakhol-1, Jeypore-1, 

Kotraguda-1, Boden (ARG)-1, Gunupur-1, Rajkishorenagar-1, Rajghat-1, Jamankira-1, Gop-1, 

Derabis (ARG)-1, Joshipur-1, 

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 


‣ The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of north 

Orissa and West Bengal persists. The associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 

midtroposphericlevels, tilting southwestwards with height. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ganganagar, Narnaul, 

Gwalior, Satna,Ambikapur, centre of low pressure area and thence southeastwards to 

eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over Punjab and neighbourhood in lower levels persists. 

‣ A feeble off shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala 

coast. 


♦ RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 5 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 6 th Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha; at many places 

over east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh; at a few places over 

Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, West Madhya Pradesh, interior Karnataka, West Bengal & 

Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and at one or two 

places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (2 cm and above) recorded at 

0830 hours IST of today are: Pachmarhi26, Hoshangabad17, Agumbe16, 

Narsinghpur15,Dibrugarh and Bhopal14each, Gondia11,Raisen10,Betul and Datia9 each, 

Mahabaleshwar8,Vijaywada, Medikeri, Raipur and Nandigama7each, Hirakud, Jharsuguda, 

Ambikapur and Koraput6each, Jaipur, Khajuraho, Jorhat, Kalimpong, Narsapur and 

Machilipatnam5 each and Allahabad, Tadong, Lumding, Jhansi, Jagdalpur, Tikamgarh, Dehri and 

Jamshedpur4each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of central India, 

Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, north Andaman Sea and central Bay of Bengal. Low/medium 

clouds are seen over rest parts of the country outside Punjab and west Rajasthan. 

RAINFALL: 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Kumargram-8, Pundibari (AWS)-7, Cooch 

Behar-6, Chepan-6, Alipurduar (CWC)-6, Chengmari/Diana-5, Barobhisha-5, Nagarkata-4, 

Gangtok-3, Sevoke-2, Darjeeling-2, Falakata-2, Mathabhanga-2, Sukiapokhri-2, Damthang-2, 

Hasimara-2, Kalimpong-2, Buxaduar-2, Tadong-2, Kalimpong (AWS)-1, Singla Bazar-1, 

Khanitar-1, Bagrakote-1, Murti-1, Bagdogra (IAF)-1, Gajoldoba-1, GANGETIC WEST 

62

BENGAL: Bankura (AWS)-4, Bankura(CWC)-4, Bankura-4, D.P.Ghat-3, Simula-3, 

Asansol(CWC)-3, Krishnanagar-3, Kharagpur (AWS)-2, Durgapur-2, Mohanpur-2, Narayanpur-2, 

Gheropara-2, Midnapore-2, Burdwan (AWS)-2, Burdwan (Pto)-2, Panagarh (IAF)-2, Barrackpur( 

(IAF))-2, Midnapore(CWC)-1, Chinsura (AWS)-1, Suri (CWC)-1, Kalaikunda (IAF)-1, 

Kolkata(Dum Dum)-1, Sri Niketan-1, Tilpara Barrage-1, Durgachack-1, Tamluk (AWS)-1, 

Basirhat-1, Tantloi-1, Diamond Harbour-1, Suri (AWS)-1, ODISHA: Tentulikhunti (ARG)-18, 

Jeypore-15, Kosagumda-15, Jaipatna-13, Dabugan (ARG)-12, Chandahandi (ARG)-12, Koraput- 

11, Laikera-9, Malkangiri-7, Panposh-6, Sundargarh-6, Cuttack-5, Umarkote-5, Balisankara 

(ARG)-5, Burla (ARG)-5, Sambalpur-5, Bhawanipatna-5, Kotraguda-5, Jharsuguda-5, Hirakud-4, 

Deogaon-4, Junagarh-4, Talcher-4, Lanjigarh-4, Rayagada-3, Naraj-3, Raghunathpur (ARG)-3, 

Mandira Dam-3, Gudari-3, Madanpur Rampur-3, Altuma (CWC)-3, Dharmagarh (ARG)-3, 

Alipingal-3, Swam-Patna-3, Puri-3, Raighar (ARG)-3, Jamsolaghat-3, Pottangi-2, Baripada-2, 

Narla (ARG)-2, Paralakhemundi-2, NH5 Gobindpur-2, Rengali-2, Nawarangpur-2, Mahendragarh- 

2, Kashinagar-2, Balimundali-2, Akhuapada-2, Gunupur-2, Champua-1, Mohana-1, Paradeep 

(CWR)-1, Chandbali-1, Gopalpur-1, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-1, Jenapur-1, Batagaon-1, Angul-1, 

Barmul-1, Jaipur-1, Kesinga (ARG)-1, Anandpur-1, Bhubaneswar Aero-1, Belgaon-1, 

Digapahandi (ARG)-1, Sonepur-1, Tarva (ARG)-1, Berhampur-1, Keonjhargarh-1, Nimpara-1, 

JHARKHAND: Daltonganj-4, Japla-4, Maithon-3, Panki-3, Chaibasa-2, Panchet-2, Ramgarh-2, 

Tenughat-2, Nandadih-1, Barkisuriya-1, Putki-1, Ranchi Aero-1, Tilaiya-1, CHHATTISGARH: 

Sukma-9, Gariabund-7, Jagdalpur-6, Gharghoda-5, Dantewara-5, Kanker-5, Bhanupratappur-5, 

Janakpur-5, Narayanpur-4, Dongargarh-4, Konta-4, Kondagaon-4, Deobhog-3, Bijapur-3, Pendra 

Road-3, Bilaspur-3, Dhamtari-3, Raigarh-3, Manendragarh-3, Ambagarh Chowki-3, Durg-3, 

Dongargaon-3, Rajnandgaon-2, Mahasamund-2, Sakti-2, Champa-2, Bhopalpatnam-2, 

Pallari/Palari-2, Simga-1, Ambikapur-1, Korba-1, Arang-1, Raipur (Mana AP)-1, Katghora-1, 

Sarangarh-1, Pathalgaon-1, Raipur-1, Jashpurnagar-1, Bemetara-1, Surajpur-1, Pali-1, 

63



64


‣ The low pressure area over southeast Jharkhand and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and 

Odisha now lies over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood. The associated upper air 

cyclonic circulation extends upto midtropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards with 

height. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Alwar, Jhansi, 

Maria, centre of low pressure area, Chandbali and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay 

of Bengal. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation northwest Rajasthan and neighbourhood in lower levels 

persists. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. 


♦ RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 6 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 7 th Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal 

Karnataka and Kerala; at many places over west Uttar Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, 

Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha, Telangana, interior Karnataka and 

Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over west Rajasthan, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, 

Jharkhand, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Madhya 

Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Lakshadweep and at one or two places 

over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat region, Odisha, Marathawada and 

Tamilnadu and mainly dry over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and 

above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Hoshangabad21, Raisen19, Mahabaleshwar14, 

Pachmarhi13, Bhopal and Medikeri11each,north Lakhimpur and Pallakud10 each, Shirali9, 

Ratlam, Nowgong, Gwalior and Thrissur8each, Ujjain and Datia7 each, Rajgarh, Shivpuri and 

Valparai5 each and Agra, Cherrapunji, Digboi, Indore, Khajuraho, Mumbai, Wardha and 

Kozhikode4 each. 

♦ CLOUDS: Kalpana1 

Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of east Rajasthan, west Uttar 

Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra, north Konkan, coastal Karnataka, 

Kerala, Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, east Arabian Sea, northeast, central & south 

Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

RAINAFALL: 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Pedong-12, Namchi (AWS)-7, Namthang- 

7, Damthang-6, Khanitar-6, Gyalsing (AWS)-5, Kalimpong-5, Kalimpong (AWS)-5, Tadong-4, 

Singla Bazar-4, Gangtok (AWS)-3, Gangtok-3, Bagdogra (IAF)-2, Garubathan-2, Darjeeling-2, 

Darjeeling(State)-2, Sevoke-2, Nagarkata-2, Sukiapokhri-2, Balurghat-2, Champasari-2, Islampur- 

1, Chengmari/Diana-1, Salbari-1, Raiganj-1, Bagrakote-1, Mahinagar-1, 

GANGETIC WEST BENGAL: Tilpara Barrage-3, Purihansa-3, Tusuma-3, Digha-3, Ranibandh- 

3, Kashipur-3, Kharidwar-3, Suri (CWC)-3, Nandigram-3, Bankura (CWC)-2, Phulberia-2, 

Baruipur-2, Jhalda-2, Kalna-2, Joypur(State)-2, Bankura-2, Kakdwip (AWS)-2, Kanksa (BSF)-2, 

Tantloi-2, Bankura (AWS)-2, Panagarh (IAF)-2, Suri (AWS)-2, Sagar Island (AWS)-2, 

Arambagh-2, Contai (State)-2, Kansabati Dam-1, Simula-1, Basirhat (State)-1, Hatwara-1, 

65

Uluberia-1, Indus-1, Durgachack-1, Asansol (CWC)-1, Uluberia (AWS)-1, Purulia (AWS)-1, 

Jhargram-1, Kolkata (Dum Dum)-1, Narayanpur-1, Deganga-1, Midnapore (CWC)-1, Contai-1, 

Uluberia (State)-1, Midnapore-1, Kolkata (AWS)-1, Harinkhola-1, Pingla-1, Mohanpur-1, 

ODISHA: Burla (ARG)-8, Sukinda-8, Banaigarh (AWS)-8, Similiguda (AWS)-7, Jeypore-7, 

Jharsuguda-6, Kamakhyanagar-6, Hirakud-6, Anandpur-6, Kankadahad (ARG)-6, Koraput-6, 

Ghatagaon-5, Tarva (ARG)-5, Banki (ARG)-5, Kirmira (ARG)-5, Thakurmunda-5, Malkangiri-5, 

Lakhanpur (ARG)-4, Nawana-4, Athgarh-4, Tigiria (ARG)-4, Sinapali (ARG)-4, Bhawanipatna-4, 

Harichandanpur (ARG)-4, Samakhunta (AWS)-3, Laikera-3, Kantamal-3, Gania (ARG)-3, Gudari- 

3, Altuma (CWC)-3, Kaptipada (ARG)-3, Ullunda (ARG)-3, Jujumura (ARG)-3, Banarpal 

(ARG)-3, Sambalpur-3, Khariar-3, Panposh-2, Deogaon-2, K Nuagaon (ARG)-2, Pallahara-2, 

Boden (ARG)-2, Dunguripalli-2, Balimundali-2, Chandanpur-2, Soro-2, Mohana-2, Bangiriposi-2, 

Titlagarh-2, Loisingha (ARG)-2, Kotagarh-2, Baripada-2, Sundargarh-2, Jhumpura-2, Baliguda-2, 

Kuchinda-2, Naraj-2, Kakatpur-2, Mundali-2, Bolangir-2, Daitari-1, Tiring-1, Komna-1, 

Khairamal-1, Swam Patna-1, Udala-1, Jenapur-1, Rayagada-1, Digapahandi (ARG)-1, Pottangi-1, 

Keiri (AWS)-1, Jaleswar-1, Nischintakoili (ARG)-1, Bhuban (ARG)-1, Parjang (ARG)-1, 

Binjharpur (ARG)-1, Danagadi (ARG)-1, Kotraguda-1, Nayagarh-1, Narsinghpur-1, Rairangpur-1, 

Daspalla-1, Jamsolaghat-1, Nilgiri-1, Rengali-1, Cuttack-1, Jamankira-1, Sohela-1, Kujanga 

(ARG)-1, Mahendragarh-1, Paradeep (CWR)-1, Telkoi-1, Kolabira (ARG)-1, Binika-1, Sonepur-1, 

Bhubaneswar (AP)-1, 

JHARKHAND: Simdega-8, Baghmara-5, Baliapur-5, Gola-4, Jamshedpur (City)-4, Japla-4, 

Kanke-4, Pirtand-4, Chandankiya-3, Chandil-3, Gumla-3, Hindgir-3, Jamshedpur (AP)-3, 

Messenjore-3, Namkum-3, Panchet-3, Raidih-3, Ranchi (AP)-3, Saria-3, Angarha-2, Bagodar-2, 

Balumath-2, Barkisuriya-2, Bermo-2, Bundu-2, Burmu-2, Chaas-2, Chandrapura-2, Dhanbad-2, 

Dumri-2, Ghatsila-2, Jamtara-2, Jaridih-2, Jharia-2, Mandu-2, Nandadih-2, Nimdih-2, Ormanjhi-2, 

Pakuria-2, Papunki-2, Patratu-2, Peterwar-2, Ramgarh-2, Silli-2, Tamar-2, Tenughat-2, 

Thakurgangti-2, Topchanchi-2, Barharwa-1, Barhet-1, Bero-1, Birnee-1, Dewari-1, Dumka-1, 

Gandey-1, Giridih-1, Gomia-1, Kurdege-1, Maithon-1, Mandar-1, Nawadih-1, Pakur-1, Torpa-1, 

Udhawa-1, CHHATTISGARH: Raigarh-11, Narayanpur-11, Gandai-10, Konta-9, Katghora-7, 

Dantewara-7, Raipur-7, Ambikapur-6, Pallari/Palari-5, Korba-5, Jagdalpur-4, Surajpur-4, 

Baikunthpur-4, Manendragarh-3, Sukma-3, Bijapur-3, Pali-3, Pendra Road-3, Kawardha-2, Baloda 

Bazar-2, Rajnandgaon-2, Mahasamund-2, Janjgir-2, Ambagarh Chowki-2, Champa-2, Durg-2, 

Bhopalpatnam-1, Gharghoda-1, Pathalgaon-1, Sakti-1, Dhamtari-1, Dongargaon-1, Kanker-1, 

Dongargarh-1, Bilaspur-1, Bhanupratappur-1, Simga-1, Jashpurnagar-1, Mana Raipur (AP)-1, 

Bemetara-1 

66



67

Date: 6 th August 2012 



‣ The low pressure area over southeast Jharkhand and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and 

Odisha now lies over north Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood. The associated upper 

air cyclonic circulation extends upto midtropospheric levels, tilting south west wards 

with height. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Alwar, Jhansi, 

Umaria, and Centre of low Pressure area, Chandbali and thence southeast wards to east 

central Bay of Bengal. The Upper air cyclonic circulation northwest Rajasthan and 

neighbourhood in lower levels Persists. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. 


Rainfall has occurred atmost places over east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha; 

at many places over east Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh; at a 

few places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, West Madhya Pradesh, interior Karnataka, 

West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & Meghalaya and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizora & Tripura and at 

one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (2 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Pachmarhi26, Hoshangabad17, Agumbe16, 

Narsinghpur15, Dibrugarh and Bhopal14 each, Gondia11, Raisen10, Betul and Datia9 each, 

Mahabaleshwar8, Vijayawada, Medikeri, Raipur and Nandigama7 each, Hirakud, Jharsuguda, 

Ambikapur and Koraput6 each, Jaipur, Khajuraho, Jorhat, Kalimpong, Narsapur and 

Machilipatnam5 each and Allahabad, Tadong, Lumding, Jhansi, Jagdalpur, Tikamgarh, Dehri 

and Jamshedpur4 each 


There are two cloud bands, one extending from Jharkhand to West MP and another band extends 

across east Central Arabian Sea, Karnataka, Rayalaseema and west Central BoB. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: Low pressure lies over Central part of Chhattisgarh and adjoining East MP. So it is 

likely to move west ward in 24hrs and NNW-wards in 48 and 72hrs in association with trough in 

mid-tropospheric westerlies in 200hPa. 

At 500mb: Cyclonic circulation extends up to mid-tropospheric level tilting SW wards with 

height. . 

At 200mb: The position of Tibetan anticyclone is likely to remain stationary (near 33N/92E) 

during next three days. Trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies is lying along 42N/70E to 28N/67E 

Rainfall: 24hr forecast shows exceptionally high rainfall lover Southcentral MP(maxima 56cm) 

and heavy rainfall over MP adjoining Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and Karnataka. 48hr forecast 

shows exceptionally heavy rainfall over southwest MP and adjoining Rajasthan & Gujarat region 

(maximum 42cm) and heavy rainfall over west MP, east Rajasthan, east Gujarat, Konkan & Goa. 

68

72hr forecast shows decrease in rainfall but heavy rainfall still likely to take place over east 

Rajasthan. Rainfall will also decrease over Konkan coast. Rainfall band is also appearing over 

Central BoB across north Andaman Islands between 12-15N. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: Analysis shows a low pressure over North Chhattisgarh. Movement of low 

pressure/Cyclonic circulation is similar to GFS forecast as booth the models are showing 

movement of the system up to Northwest MP. 

At 500mb: Circulation is seen up to 48hr forecast and becoming less marked in 72hr forecast. 

At 200mb: 24hr forecast shows position of Tibetan anti-cyclone near 34N/96E. The core of TEJ is 

along 15N and maximum speed is 80kts. In 48-72hr forecast, like GFS model ECMWF is also 

showing almost stationary trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies. TEJ is becoming weaker in 72hr 

forecast. By 72 hr core of the TEJ is coming down to 13N and speed 65kts. 

Rainfall: Expected rainfall pattern is almost same as GFS, however maximum rainfall is likely to 

occur over south central MP (31cm). IN 48hr forecast rainfall over south MP (16cm) remains same 

with decrease in intensity. However increase in rainfall over east Rajasthan and not over Gujarat. 

In 72hr forecast maximum rainfall over Rajasthan and rainfall band extends up to Uttarakhand. 

UKMO: 

At 850mb: UKMO forecasts are similar to GFS model 



Rainfall: 24hr forecast shows heavy rainfall over south central MP (16-32cm) . 48hr forecast 

shows heavy rainfall over southwest MP (16-32cm) whereas in 72hr forecast rainfall is moreover 

west MP adjoining Rajasthan with decreasing intensity (16cm). 

RS/RW Data: 

5 Stations have reported ascent above 100hPa levels. 

AOD: AOD over Jodhpur is about 0.35 and continuous to be above normal with increasing 

tendency whereas over Trivandrum it is about 0.2 which is below normal and shows stability. 

Sagarkanya: On 6 th Aug Sagarkanya (14N/84.3E) had reported SST of 28.2C, rainfall of 5.7 mm 

and surface winds are 16m/s with gusty winds exceeding 35kts and there is no isothermal layer but 

temperature is decreasing with height. On 5 th Sagarkanya (14.5N/87E) had reported SST of 28C 

and surface winds are 13.8m/s. There is no isothermal layer but temperature is decreasing with 

height. On 3 rd and 4 th strong winds and rough sea conditions were prevailed, due to this no ascents 

were taken. 

During past 3 days Sagarkanya reports suggest that strong winds ranging from 25-30kts 

with occasional gustiness upto 35-40kts prevailed over BoB and it was accompanied by cloudiness 

and passing showers indicating unstable atmosphere has also reflected in vertical temperature with 

height. 

Buoys: Today SST gradient over BoB is about 0.7°C along 90E. However on 4 th and 5 th it was 

1°C over the same region. It may be due to persistent cloudiness and rain over BoB. 

69


Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradient over BoB is in decreasing trend however it is above normal 

whereas along west coast there is no significant change but is above normal. 

Axis of Monsoon Trough: Western end of monsoon trough has gradually shifted southwards 

and now it is in near normal position. Central and eastern end of monsoon trough lies to its normal 

position in association with low pressure area located over N Chhattisgarh. 

Mascarene High: The Mascarene high gradually shifted eastward and now located near 

37.5S/75.5E (SE of normal position) 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan anticyclone is located 34S/92E (NE of its normal position). 

Tropical Easterly Jet: TEJ is slightly North of 16N with maximum wind speed of 70kts. Mid 

tropospheric westerlies roughly runs from 42N/70E to 28N/67E. 

Low-Level Jet: LLJ has speed of 50kts between 10-12N/50-60E. And over off Konkan coast wind 

speed is about 20-25 kts. Compare to 3 rd August winds over Konkan coast has decreased. 

Heat Low: Pressure associated with heat low is about 999mb. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: The tropical storm located near 24N/141E 

on 3 rd August moved WNW-wards and intensified into a typhoon with wind speed of 65kts 

(HAIKUI) located at 27.5N/125E and another tropical depression lies near 24N/161E is likely to 

move NWN-wards and expected to make landfall over Southeast China near 28.5N/121.5E on 7 th 

night. 

MJO: MJO index lies in phase 7 with amplitude greater than 1. 

The current meteorological conditions and NWP forecasts indicate low pressure area over North 

Chhattisgarh would move westwards in 24hrs and NNW-wards in subsequent hours. 

Heavy rainfall over Uttrakhand on 3 rd & 4 th August was well predicted by GFS & ECMWF models 

based on 2 nd & 3 rd August initial conditions. 

Analysis of semi-permanent features indicates monsoon may enter in to a weak phase after 48hrs. 

Large scale features like MJO and cyclonic activity over Northwest Pacific also support the above. 

In view of extreme rainfall over South MP, IOP is declared over MP, Vidharbha, Madhya 

Maharashtra, Gujarat region, east Rajasthan for study of interaction of mesoscale convection with 

large scale synoptic systems and land surface processes. 

IOP is declared for Sagarkanya for studying convective cloud bands over BoB during weakening 

phase of monsoon. 

Intensive Observation Period (IOP): Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and 

large scale features IOP is declared as follows: 


1. MP, Vidharbha, Madhya 

Maharashtra, Gujarat region, east 

Rajasthan 

7 th & 8 th August 2012 

70


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over west Madhya Pradesh and coastal & south 

interior Karnataka and active over west Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, east Madhya 

Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, and Kerala. It has been subdued over Uttarakhand, Haryana, 

Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Saurashtra & Kutch and Marathwada. 

‣ The low pressure area over north Chattisgarh and neighbourhood now lies over north 

Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends 

upto 3.1 Kms a.s.l. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Anupgarh, Alwar, 

centre of the low pressure area, Champa, Angul, Paradip and thence southeastwards to east 

central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan and neighbourhood persists and now 

extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies over north Orissa and neighbourhood between 3.6 & 4.5 Kms 

a.s.l. 


RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST of 7 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 8 th Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh and west 

coast; at many places over Punjab, east Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Vidarbha and 

south interior Karnataka; at a few places over Uttarakhand, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat 

region, Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, northeastern states and Andaman & Nicobar 

Islands and at one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm 

and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Mahabaleshwar14, Gwalior13, Agumbe10, 

Mangalore and Harnai6 each, Medikeri, Kottayam, Burdwan, Bagati, Indore, Canning and 

Golaghat5each and Shirali, Guwahati, Honavar, Hissar and Cannur4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of east Rajasthan, west Uttar 

Pradesh, Gujarat region, west Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, southeast Arabian Sea, 

northeast & adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen 

over rest parts of the country. 

RAINAFALL: 

EAST RAJASTHAN: Pratapgarh-11, Baseri -9, Thanagazi-8, Chipabarod -7, Arnod -7, Mahwa- 

7, Bamanwas -6, Kapasan -6, Chhotisadri-5, Bari-Sadri-5, Rupbas-5, Gangapur-5, Bhainsroadgarh 

-4, Manohar Thana-4, Rajakhera-4, Sapotra-4, Sikrai-4, Khanpur-4, Rashmi -4, Dug-4, Pipalkhunt 

-4, Nadbai-4, Raipur-4, Badesar -3, Dungla -3, Lalsot-3, Hindaun-3, Nimbahera-3, Gangdhar -3, 

Malakhera -3, Chabra-3, Dhariabad-3, Pachpahar -3, Vijaynagar -3, Khandar -3, Sambhar -3, 

Kekri -3, Kotkasim -3, Banera -3, Bundi-3, Bundi (AWS)-3, Amet-3, Malerainadunger -3, 

Dholpur (AWS)-3, Dholpur Tehsil -3, Asnawar -3, Alwar -3, Rajsamand-3, Rajgarh-2, Dausa-2, 

Karauli-2, Kishngarhwas -2, Bhungra -2, Pahari -2, Rajsamand (AWS)-2, Nagar -2, Amer -2, 

Jaipur Tehsil -2, Bonli-2, Kathumer-2, Hurda -2, Deogarh-2, Danpur-2, Jamwaramgarh -2, Danta 

71

Ramgarh-2, Baswa-2, Chittorgarh-2, Tonk Vanasthali-2, Nayanagar/Beawar-2, Ramgarh -2, 

Mandalgarh-2, Bhopalsagar -2, Dholpur-2, Chaksu-2, Mandrayal -2, Vallabhnagar-2, Jaipur (AP)- 

2, Bijoliya -2, Nadoti-2, Mavli-2, Alwar (AWS)-2, Baran (AWS)-2, Begu -2, Bassi-2, Viratnagar - 

2, Tizara -1, Shahpura-1, Tatgarh -1, Baran-1, Bhilwara Tehsil -1, Uniara / Aligarh-1, 

Chambal/R.B.Dam-1, Naraina -1, Sarwar-1, Kesarpura -1, Sapau -1, Jhalawar-1, Girva -1, 

Bayana-1, Jagpura -1, Jaipur Agro-1, Niwai-1, Sarara-1, Tapukara-1, Banswara -1, Ghatol-1, 

Kumher -1, Jahazpur-1, Mandal -1, Hindoli-1, Sanganer Tehsil -1, Jhalarapatan -1, Bhim-1, 

Nathdwara-1, Deoli-1, Udaipur (AWS) Agro-1, Banswara-1, Banswara (AWS)-1, Beir -1, Deeg - 

1, Kaman-1, Bhilwara (AWS)-1, Bari-1, Shahpura -1, Todabhim-1, Sangod-1, Mangliawas -1, 

Arai -1, Lachmangarh-1, Anta -1, Kishanganj-1, Aspur-1, Nithuwa -1, Phagi-1, Railmagra -1, 

Sawai Madhopur-1, Salumber-1, Mount Abu-1, WEST MADHYA PRADESH: Budhni-27, Harda- 

23, Hoshangbad-21, Raisen-19, Khategaon-16, Khirkiya-14, Pachmarhi-13, Pichhore-13, Tarana- 

12, Nusrulgunj-11, Bhopal-11, Harsud-10, Sehore-9, Vidisha-9, Mahidpur-8, Bhainder-8, 

Gwalior-8, Ratlam-8, Datia-7, Bagli-7, Manasa-7, Ujjain-7, Karera-7, Dewas-7, Mandsaur-7, 

Ashta-7, Ichhawar-7, Kannod-6, Khandwa-6, Shivpuri-6, Badnawar-6, Ambah-5, Rajgarh-5, 

Udaipura-5, Barwaha-5, Tonkhurd-5, Kolaras-5, Garoth-4, Narsingarh-4, Bareli-4, Sabalgarh-4, 

Biaora-4, Indore-4, Suvasara-4, Chanderi-4, Badnagar-4, Isagarh-4, Sonkatch-4, Khilchipur-4, 

Sarangpur-3, Ashoknagar-3, Mehgaon-3, Shajapur-3, Shujalpur-3, Begumganj-3, Susner-3, 

Chachoda-3, Dabra-3, Morena-3, Neemuch-3, Depalpur-3, Gautampura-3, Lahar-3, Khaknar-3, 

Gohad-2, Agar-2, Khachrod-2, Bhind-2, Salwani/Silvani-2, Nepanagar-2, Kurwai-2, Mungaoli-2, 

Bhanpura-2, Jawad-2, Ganjbasoda-2, Alipur(Jaura)-2, Lateri-2, Mhow-1, Dhar-1, Pandhana-1, 

Sheopur-1, Burhanpur-1, Seodha(Seondha)-1, Guna-1, Bhikangaon-1, Sironj-1, EAST MADHYA 

PRADESH: Hatta-10, Garhakota-9, Nowgong-8, Buxwaha-7, Narsinghpur-6, Lakhnadon-6, 

Kaneli-6, Rajnagar-5, Khajuraho (AP)-4, Khurai-4, Chahtarpur-4, Tendukheda-4, Deori-4, 

Ajaigarh-4, Orchha-4, Damoh-3, Nainpur-3, Panna-3, Jabalpur-New--3, Gadarwara-3, Rehli-3, 

Dindori-3, Chindwara-3, Sausar-3, Ghansore-3, Sagar-3, Gotegaon-3, Maihar-3, Tikamgarh-3, 

Amarwara-3, Katni-3, Nagode-2, Sohagpur-2, Jaithari-1, Bichhia-1, Katangi-1, GUJARAT 

REGION: Mangrol-2, Umerpada-1, Nanipalson-1, MADHYA MAHARASHTRA: 

Mahabaleshwar- -14, Gaganbawada-10, Igatpuri-6, Paud Mulshi-5, Vadgaon Maval-4, Chandgad- 

3, Shahuwadi-3, Patan-3, Velhe-2, Panhala-2, Kolhapur-2, Gadhinglaj-2, Gargoti / Bhudargad-2, 

Navapur-2, Wai-2, Junnar-2, Ajra-2, Shirala-2, Bhor-2, Mangalvedha-1, Raver-1, Pune (AP)-1, 

Yaval-1, Harsul (FMO)-1, Muktainagar / Edalabad-1, Hatkanangale-1, Khed Rajgurunagar-1, 

Kagal-1, Ozharkheda (FMO)-1, Sangola-1, Karad-1, Karjat-1, VIDARBHA: Narkheda-8, 

Chikhalda-6, Warud-5, Saoner-5, Amgaon-4, Salekasa-4, Wardha-4, Perseoni-3, Dharni-3, Ashti- 

3, Morsi-3, Tumsar-2, Katol-2, Goregaon-2, Paratwada-2, Jalgaon Jamod-2, Arvi-2, Mauda-2, 

Chandur Bazar-2, Kalmeshwar-2, Tirora-2, Akot-1, Deori-1, Sadakarjuni-1, Tiwsa-1, Bhandara-1, 

Dhamangaon Rlwy-1, Gondia-1, Nagpur (AP)-1, Gadchiroli-1, Kharangha-1, Hingna-1, Telhara-1, 

Sangrampur-1, Mohadi-1, Malkapur-1, Nandura-1, Anjangaon-1, Shegaon-1, Korchi-1, Kamptee- 

1, Dhanora-1. 

72



73


‣ The low pressure area over north Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Uttar Pradesh now lies 

over northwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood. The associated upper air cyclonic 

circulation extends upto 3.1 km above mean level. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Jaipur, centre of 

low pressure area, Satna, Daltonganj, Bankura, Kolkata and thence southeastwards to 

eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level runs from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists. 



occurred at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Delhi, east Rajasthan, 

Gujarat region, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, west Bengal & Sikkim, 

Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Madhya 

Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Kerala; at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, west 

Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and at 

one or two places over Punjab, Saurashtra & Kutch, Assam, Marathwada and Jharkhand. Weather 

mainly dry over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (5 cm and above) recorded 

at 0830 hours IST of today are: Agumbe17, Mount Abu13, Shirali, Panambur, Mahabaleshwar and 

Bhiwani9 each, Kavarathi8, Jagdalpur and Pilani7 each, Mangalore, Agra, Thanjavur and 

Ambikapur6 each and Bhira, Rajgarh, Rohatak, Goa, Bundi, Nowgong, Kochi, Jodhpur, 

Nedumbassery, Valparai, Shivpuri and Medikeri5 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Haryana,east Rajasthan, 

Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, coastal 

Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala. Karnataka, southeast Arabian Sea, east Bay of Bengal and Andaman 

Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

RAINFALL: 

EAST RAJASTHAN: Nadbai-13, Shergarh -13, Sarmathura -11, Sirohi-10, Todaraisingh -9, 

Loharia-9, Sapotra-8, Sapau -8, Chikali -8, Devel -7, Jagpura -7, Bansur-7, Kathumer-7, Rupbas-7, 

Mount Abu-7, Bhungra -7, Dungarpur Tehsil -7, Sagwara-7, Mounntabu Tehsil -7, Vallabhnagar- 

6, Kapasan -6, Ghatol-6, Bayana-6, Kumher -6, Alwar -6, Dholpur (AWS)-6, Bari-6, Sallopat -5, 

Bhopalsagar -5, Mandrayal -5, Bharatpur Agro-5, Sajjangarh -5, Dungerpur (AWS)-5, Bahadurpur 

-5, Khushalgarh-5, Karauli-5, Govindgarh -4, Dholpur Tehsil -4, Ganeshpur -4, Kherwara-4, 

Malsisar -4, Reodar -4, Nithuwa -4, Kotda -4, Arthuna-4, Chabra-4, Nayanagar/Beawar-4, Nagar - 

4, Malerainadunger -4, Danpur-3, Pahari -3, Sanganer Tehsil -3, Todabhim-3, Gangapur-3, 

Malpura-3, Kotputli-3, Sheoganj-3, Bharatpur Tehsil -3, Mahwa-3, Geola -3, Dug-3, Mangrol-3, 

Baseri -3, Galiakot -3, Pindwara-3, Beir -3, Bharatpur-3, Asind-3, Aspur-3, Chothkabarwara -3, 

Jaipur Tehsil -3, Ramgarh -3, Sikrai-3, Pipalkhunt -3, Dholpur-3, Bhim-3, Sarara-3, Malakhera -3, 

Garhi-3, Sabla -3, Khandar -3, Talera -2, Jaipur Agro-2, Dhariabad-2, Udaipur/D (AP)-2, 

Nimbahera-2, Abu Road -2, Kekri -2, Banswara Agro-2, Hindaun-2, Piplu -2, Bhilwara Tehsil -2, 

74

Salumber-2, Banswara -2, Mandalgarh-2, Kaman-2, Sawai Madhopur-2, Mavli-2, Bagidora -2, 

Kesarpura -2, Patan-2, Arnod -2, Sawaimadhopur Tehsil -2, Uniara / Aligarh-2, Banswara-2, 

Jaipur (AP)-2, Tatgarh -2, Lachmangarh-2, Kotri-2, Mandal -2, Chambal/R.B.Dam-2, Indergarh - 

2, Baswa-2, Lalsot-2, Sambhar -2, Shahpura -2, Mandawar-1, Badesar -1, Ramganjmandi -1, 

Amet-1, Deogarh-1, Dhambola-1, Bakani -1, Ajmer Tehsil -1, Gangdhar -1, Nadoti-1, Arai -1, 

Nasirabad-1, Sawar -1, Sahada -1, Dungla -1, Veja -1, Aklera-1, Bonli-1, Srinagar -1, Kishanganj- 

1, Deeg -1, Chomu-1, Degod -1, Ladpura -1, Sangod-1, Nathdwara-1, Bamanwas -1, Sikar Tehsil - 

1, Tonk Tehsil -1, Kishangarh-1, Banswara (AWS)-1, Chaksu-1, Pratapgarh-1, Sawaimadhopur 

(AWS)-1, Shahabad-1, Bijoliya -1, Rashmi -1, Jhalarapatan -1, Jhalawar-1, Nagrarfort -1, Sarwar- 

1, Anta -1, Chipabarod -1, Begu -1, Manohar Thana-1, Pachpahar -1, Jhunjhunu-1, Pipalda -1, 

Deoli-1, Tonk Vanasthali-1, WEST MADHYA PRADESH: Vidisha-18, Badnawar-15, Gwalior- 

13, Sarangpur-12, Depalpur-9, Ashoknagar-8, Badnagar-8, Bhabhra-7, Jabot-7, Sailana-7, 

Thandla-7, Gautampura-7, Jaora-7, Maheshwar-6, Jhabua-6, Agar-6, Mandsaur-5, Indore-5, 

Chachoda-5, Ratlam-5, Alirajpur-4, Gohad-4, Manawar-4, Thikri-4, Harsud-4, Kasarwad-4, 

Tarana-4, Lateri-4, Shivpuri-4, Sardarpur-4, Shegaon-4, Shujalpur-4, Petlawad-3, Betul-3, Dewas- 

3, Gandhwani-3, Dhar-3, Barwaha-3, Bhopal-3, Sonkatch-3, Narsingarh-3, Mhow-3, Dabra-3, 

Shajapur-3, Khirkiya-3, Bijaypur (Adp)-3, Karera-3, Nalchha-2, Khargone-2, Mehgaon-2, Bagli-2, 

Mungaoli-2, Khachrod-2, Garoth-2, Chanderi-2, Kukshi-2, Tonkhurd-2, Multai-2, Isagarh-2, 

Suvasara-1, Sehore-1, Susner-1, Kolaras-1, Kurwai-1, Guna-1, Ashta-1, Sironj-1, Bhainder-1, 

Ichhawar-1, Pichhore-1, Lahar-1, Bhanpura-1, Pachmarhi-1, Khandwa-1, Bhikangaon-1, 

Bhainsdehi-1, Mahidpur-1, Ujjain-1, Kannod-1, Neemuch-1, Sheopur-1, EAST MADHYA 

PRADESH: Rajnagar-4, Khajuraho (AP)-3, Mandla-3, Panna-3, Hatta-3, Deori-2, Amarwara-2, 

Damoh-2, Seoni-2, Lakhnadon-2, Chahtarpur-2, Katni-2, Nowgong-1, Bichhia-1, Keolari-1, 

GUJARAT REGION: Kadana-9, Dhansura-7, Morva Hadaf-7, Bayad-6, Khedbrahma-6, 

Santrampur-5, Dhanpur-5, Dahod-4, Shahera-4, Limkheda-3, Dahod (AWS)-3, Virpur-3, Garbada- 

3, Lunawada-3, Talod-3, Vadali-3, Bayad (ARG)-3, Bhiloda-3, Fatepura-2, Himatanagar-2, 

Meghraj-2, Viramgam-2, Jhalod-2, Patan (AWS)-2, Vadgam-2, Sankheda-2, Khanpur-2, Prantij-2, 

Patan-2, Malpur-2, Amirgadh-2, Sinor-2, Rajpipala-1, Devgadh Baria-1, Nandod-1, Wanakbori-1, 

Nanipalson-1, Mandal-1, Kapadvanj-1, Kaprada-1, Dharoi Colony-1, Modasa-1, Idar-1, Bavla-1, 

Mansa-1, Kheralu-1, Vadnagar-1, Ghoghamba-1, Idar (AWS)-1, Pardi-1, Palanpur-1, Vijaynagar- 

1, Umreth-1, Danta-1, Palanpur (AWS)-1, Dahegam-1, Kalol-1, Chanasma-1, MADHYA 

MAHARASHTRA: Mahabaleshwar -14, Gaganbawada-8, Chandgad-4, Patan-4, Paud Mulshi-3, 

Vadgaon Maval-3, Velhe-2, Shahuwadi-2, Bhor-2, Gargoti/Bhudargad-2, Ajra-2, Wai-1, Satara - 

1, Shahada-1, Taloda-1, Karad-1, Gadhinglaj-1, Ozharkheda (FMO)-1, Panhala-1, Ambegaon 

Ghodegaon-1, Purandar Sasvad-1, Igatpuri-1, Kagal-1, Akkalkuwa-1, Peint-1, Akalkot-1, 

VIDARBHA: Chikhalda-4, Dharni-2, Kurkheda-2, Rajura-2, Pauni-1, Ballarpur-1, Umrer-1, 

Etapalli-1, Chamorshi-1, Lakhandur-1, Ahiri-1, Korchi-1, Mulchera-1, Arjuni Morgaon-1, 

Chandrapur-1, Bhiwapur-1, Selu-1, Tirora-1, Saoli-1, 

75



76




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been active over east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, 

Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. It has been subdued over Arunachal 

Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Saurashtra & Kutch, Chattisgarh and 

Telangana. 

‣ The low pressure area over north Chhattisgarh has moved northwest wards and less 

entered and now lies over northwest MP and neighbourhood at 03Z of today with 

associated cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric level. 

‣ Pressure gradient over Arabian Sea (4.9mb) has decreased but however it is above 

normal position, whereas over BoB (6.6mb) the gradient has decreased and it is below 

normal position 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Anupgarh, 

Jaipur, centre of the low pressure area (close to Shivpuri), Satna, Daltonganj, Bankura, 

Kolkata and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal.. 


persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan and neighbourhood has merged with 

the heat low. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan, 

west Madhya Pradesh and west coast; at many places over Punjab, east Madhya Pradesh, 

Gangetic West Bengal, Vidarbha and south interior Karnataka; at a few Places over Uttarakhand, 

Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat region, Chhattisgarh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, north 

eastern states and Andaman & Nicobar Islands and at one or two places over rest parts of the 

country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of 

today are: Mahabaleshwar14, Gwalior13, Agumbe10, Mangalore and Harnai6 each, Medikeri, 

Kottayam, Burdwan, Bagati, Indore, Canning and Golaghat5 each and Shirali, Guwahati, Honavar, 

Hissar and Cannur4 each 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over parts of east Rajasthan, west Uttar Pradesh, 

Gujarat region, west Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, southeast Arabian Sea, northeast & 

adjoining east central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest 

parts of the country. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

Surface: In 24hr forecast Mascarene high is located at 32S/55E with central pressure 1032. In 48 

hr forecast Mascarene high is located at 37S/58E with central pressure 1029. In 72hr forecast 

Mascarene high is located at 34S/67E with central pressure 1029. So forecast suggest gradual 

eastward shift in MH whereas it strength will remain same. 

77

At 850mb: Analysis shows wind speed over Somali coast has decreased and it is about 40kts and 

20kts near Konkan coast. Cyclonic circulation less entered over northwest MP and adjoining UP. 

One more cyclonic circulation lies over Bangladesh. In 24hr forecast cyclonic circulation over 

Northwest MP persists and slightly moves eastwards and the cyclonic circulation over Bangladesh 

lies over GWB and adjoining Jharkhand. In 48hr forecast, cyclonic circulation over northwest MP 

persists and cyclonic circulation over GWB became less marked. In 72hr forecast, cyclonic 

circulation over Northwest MP shifted NWN-wards and lies over East Rajasthan and UP however 

a shear line extending from Northwest MP to GWB. 

At 500mb: In 24hr forecast, cyclonic circulation over Northwest MP tilting Southwards with 

height and lies over Southwest MP. In 48hr forecast, cyclonic circulation lies over Northwest MP 

and it persists up to 72hrs. 

At 200mb: In 24hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough remains practically stationary and lies 

over same as in analysis TEJ at Trivandrum latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. 

In 48hr forecast mid-latitude westerly trough moves eastward and Tibetan anticyclone also moves 

eastward (34S/97E). TEJ at Trivandrum latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. In 72hr forecast, mid 

latitude westerly trough is moving north and it is at J & K (about 35N) latitude. Jet wind speed 

(60kts) prevails over J & K. Tibetan anticyclone further moves eastward (34N/94E). TEJ at 

Trivandrum latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. 

Rainfall: In 24hr forecast heavy rainfall is likely over Southeast Rajasthan and Southwest MP 

with rainfall belt extending NNE-wards upto Uttarakhand and one band is over West Bengal North 

Orissa, Jharkhand and Bangladesh and another belt along west coast and there is a rain band over 

Southwest BoB and North Andaman Sea. In 48hr forecast a well defined rainfall over Gujarat 

region to Bangladesh across North MP and adjoining UP and Jharkhand. The other rainband over 

BoB and another along west Coast also intensifies. In 72hr forecast there is discontinuity in 

continental rain band with northward shifting and other two rain bands persists. 

ECMWF: 

850mb Analysis: Location of circulation over North MP is same as in GFS and as in actual 

observations. Wind speeds over Somali coast is about 40kts and off west coast it is about 20kts. 

24hr forecast shows circulation is moved to northeast wards and now lying over southeast UP. 

Another feeble circulation is also observed over GWB and neighbourhood. 48hr forecast shows 

circulation over southeast UP has become less marked and circulation over GWB is emerging in to 

northwest BoB and adjoining north Orissa. 72hr forecast shows that circulation over northwest 

Bay is persisting and circulation over southeast UP is reappearing and now lies over east MP. 

At 500mb: Analysis shows circulation over northwest MP tilting southwest ward with height. 

24hr forecast is more or less same as analysis. 48hr forecast shows trough in mid-latitude 

westerlies is along 64E and north of 29N. In 72hr forecast trough has moved slightly eastward and 

now lying along 65E. 

At 200mb: Tibetan anticyclone (33N) and midlatitude trough is at 65E/30N and tropical easterly 

jet is of 55kts at 10N. 24hr forecast shows secondary maxima of 50kts appear between 

Machilipatnam and Vizag latitudes. Mid-latitude westerly trough moves slightly eastwards and 

winds over J & K is approximately 65kts. Tibetan anticyclone is at 34N/92E. In 48hr forecast, 

secondary maxima disappear and wind speed at Trivandrum becomes 45kts and mid-latitude 

78

westerly trough runs roughly along 30N/68E. Winds over J & K are about 35kts. Tibetan 

anticyclone is at 35N/96E. In 72hr forecast wind speed over Trivandrum reduces to 30kts and 

maxima lies over South of Sri Lanka and mid-latitude trough is along 69E north of 35N. Tibetan 

anticyclone is at 35N/99E. 

Rainfall: 24hr forecast: Rain band extends from Rajasthan to east Central BoB across UP, Bihar, 

West Bengal & Bangladesh. Another band extends from southwest Bay to north Andaman Sea. A 

rain band is also seen in over west coast. 48hr forecast: Eastern end of the rain band over 

north/Central India is shifting southwards and western end slightly northward. Western end of the 

rain band over BoB is becoming less marked.72hr forecast: Rain band over north/Central India is 

further shifting southwards and intensifying. 

UKMO: Not Available 

RS/RW Data: 11 Stations have reported ascent above 100hPa levels. 

AOD: NA. 

SAGARKANYA: As per report of 07 th August, it was located at 13.65N/82.15E and SST was 

about 28.4C. No stable layer. There will be no observations from today onwards as team over 

ORV Sagarkanya has disembarked. 

SAGARNIDHI: Located at 9.5N/87E, reported MSLP of 1009mb whereas nearest buoy has 

reported 1006mb. Vertical profile of temperature shows decrease with height and hence 

conditional instability. Relative humidity (RH) at 500hPa is about 36% however the RH has 

significantly decreased in mid levels. 

Buoys: Observation indicates SST to be 24-29°C over BoB (near equator to North BoB) and 25- 

27°C over Arabian Sea (near equator to North Arabian Sea). However SST gradients remain same 

over BoB and slightly increased over Arabian Sea. 


During last 2 days Monsoon trough has been shifted southwards. However it started shifting 

northward from today onwards. 

Heat Low: Pressure associated with heat low is about 999.8mb, which is above normal by about 

5mb. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan anticyclone is located near 34S/94E (NE of its normal position). 

Tropical Easterly Jet: Maximum wind speed of 60kts along 12N. 

Mascarene High: The Mascarene located near 32.5S/57.5E with central pressure 1030 hPa. A 

tropical depression lies near South Africa coast. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: The tropical storm HAIKUI had made 

landfall over east China near 29.1N/122E between 2100Z of 7 th & 00Z of 8 th August. Another two 

tropical storms over Pacific Ocean are as follows: 

1) GILMA (East Pacific) located 15.2N/ 114.6 W with classification T3.0/3.0 at 00Z of 8 th 

August. 

MJO: MJO index lies in phase 7 with amplitude less than 1. Forecast shows MJO will be in phase 

1 in next 3-4days. 

Conclusion: 

79

The current meteorological conditions and NWP forecasts suggest that low pressure area over 

northwest MP may persist for next 1-2days and then become less marked. There is diverging 

opinion on formation of cyclonic circulation over northwest BoB which ECMWF is showing 

likely formation during next 48hrs and whereas GFS is showing formation over GWB and 

Bangladesh during next 48hrs and becoming less marked thereafter. 

Accordingly there is a significant difference in predicted rainfall by these two models which 

ECMWF shows active monsoon condition across Central India, Orissa, Rajasthan, UP during next 

3 days. 

Large scale features like MJO is unfavourable; there is neutral condition with respect to 

cyclogenesis over northwest Pacific. However on synoptic scale LLJ, TEJ are likely to be weaker, 

Tibetan high lies to its northeast, Mascarene high to its southeast as predicted by both models. 

However monsoon trough is likely to be near normal position. 


Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and large scale features no IOP is 

declared. 

80




‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood 

persists and extends upto 1.5 km above mean level. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Phalodi, Ajmer, Shivpuri, 

Satna, Ambikapur, Balasore and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh 

and west coast; at many places over Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan, east Uttar Pradesh, 

Odisha, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, Madhya Maharashtra, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and 

Assam & Meghalaya; at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, west Rajasthan, Gujarat region, 

Bihar, north Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura 

and at one or two places over rest parts of the country outside Saurashtra & Kutch and coastal 

Tamilnadu where weather was mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (3 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Agumbe and Karwar-13 each, Mangalore-11, Jabalpur 

and Haldia-10 each, Panjim-8, Bhira, Panchmarhi and Honavar-7 each, Dharamshala, Kota and 

Bankura-6 each, Bikaner, Canning, Sambalpur, Guna, Hoshangabad, Vengurla, Diamond Harbour, 

Cannoor, Medikeri and Agra- 5 each, Koraput, Bundi, Chittorgarh, Midnapore, Cherrapunji, 

Kolkata, Puri, Mayabandar, Satna, Ratnagiri, Sidhi, Sultanpur, Champa, Burdwan-4 each and 

Ranchi, Raipur, Phalodi, Sundernagar, Mana, Digha, Kochi, Tezpur, Pendra, Belgaum, Kozhikode, 

Nowgong, Shajapur, Sagar, Valparai- 3 each. 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over south Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, west Uttar 

Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Maharashtra, coastal & south interior Karnataka, 

Kerala, Lakshadweep, Jharkhand, Bihar, north Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, 

Andaman & Nicobar Islands adjoining southeast Bay, southeast Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal north 

of 15.0N and north Andaman Sea. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

Surface: The Mascarene located near 32.5S/64.5E with central pressure 1027 hPa. In 24hr forecast 

Mascarene high is located at 33.8S/72.4E with central pressure 1031. In 48 hr forecast Mascarene 

high is located at 32S/75E with central pressure 1030. In 72hr forecast Mascarene high is located 

at 31S/76.4E with central pressure 1029. So forecast suggests gradual eastward shift in MH and 

slight decrease in central pressure. 

850mb: Analysis shows Cyclonic circulation over east Mp and adjoining Chhattisgarh. Strength of 

Somali Jet is about 45kts near 10N/55E whereas wind speed is about 35kts near 15N/70E. 

In 24hr forecast cyclonic circulation over east MP and neighbourhood is slightly moving 

westward and now lies over central MP. In 48hr forecast, cyclonic circulation further moved 

northwest ward and now lies over northwest MP and neighbourhood. In 72hr forecast, cyclonic 

81

circulation over Northwest MP further shifted Northwest-wards and lies over northeast Rajasthan 

and adjoining area. 

500mb: Analysis shows, southward shifting of cyclonic circulation over east MP and adjoining 

Chhattisgarh. Trough in westerlies lies along 64E and north of 32N. 

In 24hr forecast, westward movement of cyclonic circulation over east MP and it is tilting 

Southwards with height and lies over Southwest MP. Trough in westerlies is almost stationary 

along 64E but it is deeping up to south Pakistan. In 48hr forecast, cyclonic circulation lies over 

westcentral MP adjoining Rajasthan. In 72hrs forecast, circulation has further moved northwest 

ward and lies over east-central Rajasthan. In 48& 72 hr forecast, mid-latitude westerlies are almost 

stationary. 

200mb: Mid-latitude westerly trough is along 64E and north of 36N. Tibetan anticyclone is 

located near 34.5N/98.5E. The core of TEJ is observed along 12N over East Tamilnadu coast with 

maxima up to 50kts. In 24hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough has moved eastward and now 

lies along 66E. TEJ at Trivandrum latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. Tibetan anticyclone has 

moved eastward and now located near 34N/103E. In 48hr forecast mid-latitude westerly trough 

moves eastward and Tibetan anticyclone also moves eastward (34S/104E). TEJ at Srilanka 

latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. In 72hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough has moved 

eastward. Tibetan anticyclone has moved westward centred near (33N/85E). TEJ is located over 

southwest Bay adjoining Srilanka with maximum wind speed of 50 kts. 

Rainfall: 24hr forecast shows mainly three rain-bands over India: one over west adjoining east 

MP Gujarat and south Rajasthan; another extending from east UP to Nagaland across Bihar, Sub- 

Himalayan West Bengal and Assam, and third one along west coast and Lakshadweep. In 48hr 

forecast shows, heavy rainfall from west MP to Gujarat & south Rajasthan. A well defined rain 

band extends from southwest J&K to Nagaland across north Punjab, HP, southeast Haryana, UP, 

Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Orissa, Sikkim & Assam. The other rain bands are observed along 

west coast and north Andaman Sea and adjoining east-central Bay. In 72hr forecast, one rain band 

is over Rajasthan, Gujarat and along west coast. Another rain band is again extending along the 

foothills of Himalayas. Rain band over north Andaman Sea has further extended westward and 

now reaching up to southwest Bay. 

ECMWF: NA 

UKMO: NA 


Pressure Gradient: The gradient over Arabian Sea (6.6mb) has slightly increased and whereas 

there is a slight decrease over Bay of Bengal (8.4mb), however both are above normal. 

Heat Low: Pressure associated with heat low is 995mb, located near 29N/63E (South Pakistan). 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: A low pressure area is located near 

15.5N/134.3E (east of Philippines) and expected to move northwest wards in next 24hrs. 

MJO: MJO index lies in phase 8 with amplitude more than 1. Forecast shows MJO will be in 

phase 1 in next 2-3days. 


large scale features no IOP is declared. 

82



83




‣ The low pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan 

persists. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto Mid tropospheric 

levels. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Jaisalmer, Jodhpur, centre of 

low pressure area, Satna, Daltonganj, Bankura, Diamond Harbour and thence 

southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

‣ The off shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists. 


Rainfall has occurred at many places over Himachal Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh, east 

Rajasthan, West Bengal & Sikkim, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat region, Vidarbha, west coast 

and Lakshadweep; at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Assam & 

Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, 

Jharkhand, Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh and at one or two places over rest parts of the 


Banswara25, Golaghat11, Mahabaleshwar10, Baroda and Honavar8 each, Patna, Mount Abu and 

Ahmedabad7 each, Udaipur, Agartala, Ratlam, Burdwan and Idar6 each and Mukteshwar, Barmer, 

Ajmer and Bhira5 each. 


INSAT imagery shows two convective clouds-band; one over east Rajasthan adjoin Madhya 

Pradesh, Gujarat and another is extending from north Andaman Sea to north BoB. 


NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

Surface: Mascarene high is located near 31S/68E with central pressure 1030mb. A baroclinic low 

is located south of Madagascar near 37S/44.5E, centre pressure 1004. 24hr forecast shows 

Mascarene high is shifting eastward and now located near 31.5S/71.0E with central pressure 1029 

and baroclinic low is intensifying & moving south-eastward, now centred near 38.5S/48.5E, centre 

pressure 1000mb. In 48 hr forecast Mascarene high is located at 32S/48E with central pressure 

1024 and baroclinic low is becoming less marked. 72hr forecast shows Mascarene high is centred 

near 34.5S/56.0E with central pressure 1027. Analysis shows a tropical storm over west Pacific 

Ocean centered near 16.4N/128.0E. Forecast shows that system is intensifying and moving in 

Northwest-ward direction during next 3-4 days and will make landfall over Taiwan near 

(23.5N/121.5E) on 16 th night. 

850mb: Analysis shows low pressure area is located over northwest MP adjoining Rajasthan near 

25N/77.2E. 24hr forecast shows slightly north-westwards movement (centered near 25.8N/76.3E; 

Northeast Rajasthan adjoining MP) whereas 48hrs forecast shows that system is moving more in 

84

northward direction and centered near 26.8N/77.3E (extreme Northeast Rajasthan adjoining 

northwest MP and southwest UP). 72hr forecast shows that system is becoming less marked and 

slightly moving in north-north-westward direction (centered near 27.8N/77.2E; Northeast 

Rajasthan adjoining southeast Haryana & UP). 

Analysis shows strength of Somali Jet is about 40kts near 10N/55E whereas wind speed is about 

30kts near 15N/70E. In 24hr forecast strength of Somali Jet is same as in analysis but it is 

decreasing in 48hrs (35kts) & 72 hrs (30kts) forecast. Wind speed near 15N/70E is also decreasing 

in 48hrs (25kts) & 72 hrs (20kts) forecast. 

500mb: Analysis and 24 & 48hr forecast shows that cyclonic circulation is persisting & tilting 

southward with height. Mid-latitude westerly trough runs along 31N/64E and 40N/69E. Midlatitude 

westerly trough is along 30N/64E & 40N/71E in 24hr forecast and then disappearing in 48 

& 72hr forecast. 

200mb: Analysis shows, mid-latitude westerly trough is along 31N/61E & 44N/73E. Tibetan 

anticyclone is located near 33.5N/87E. The core of TEJ is observed along 14N (south AP & 

adjoining north Tamilnadu) with maxima up to 60kts. 

In 24hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough is almost stationary. Tibetan anticyclone also 

remains stationary (33.5N/86E). TEJ at Trivandrum latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. In 48hr 

forecast mid-latitude westerly trough has moved eastward and Tibetan anticyclone also moved 

eastward and now lies at 31.5N/96.5E. TEJ at Srilanka latitudes with wind speed of 50 kts. In 

72hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough has moved eastward. Tibetan anticyclone has slightly 

moved westward and now centred near 31.5N/95E. TEJ has further shifted southwards and lies 

south of Srilanka with maximum wind speed of 50 kts another maxima lies over central BoB with 

maximum speed 50kts. 

Rainfall: 

24hr forecast shows that under the influence of low pressure area over east Rajasthan and 

neighbourhood, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over southeast Rajasthan adjoining 

southwest MP & Gujarat region. Rainfall is also expected over HP, Uttarakhand, SHWB, 

Bangladesh, northeast BoB and west coast. In 48hr forecast shows, there are two heavy rainfall 

bands, one over Rajasthan and adjoining areas another north Andaman Sea, Andaman Island & 

adjoining eastcentral Bay. Rainfall is also expected over foothills of Himalayas. In 72hr forecast, 

rainfall has decreased over Rajasthan whereas rainfall over foothills is persisting. There is increase 

in rainfall activity in Orissa and Jharkhand region. 

ECMWF: 

850mb: Analysis shows low pressure is centred over northwest MP adjoining Rajasthan centred 

near 24.5N/77E. 24hr forecast shows low pressure has moved NNW-ward and is centred near 

26.5N/76.8E (northeast Rajasthan & neighbourhood). So it is showing more northward movement 

than IMD GFS model. 48hr forecast shows system has moved westward now centred near 

26.5N/75.5E (northeast Rajasthan). There is north-south trough over northeast BoB. 72hr forecast 

shows, low pressure has moved northwest ward (northwest Rajasthan centred near 28N/74E) and 

became less marked. A cyclonic circulation has developed over northeast BoB. 

Analysis shows strength of Somali Jet is about 45kts near 10N/55E whereas wind speed is about 

30kts near 15N/70E. In 24hr forecast strength of Somali Jet is same as in analysis but it is 

85

decreasing in 48hrs (35kts) and remain same in 72 hrs forecast. Wind speed near 15N/70E is also 

decreasing in 48hrs (25kts) and remain same in 72 hrs forecast. 

500mb: Analysis and upto 72hr forecast shows that cyclonic circulation is moving NW-ward & 

tilting southward with height. 24hrs forecast also shows a cyclonic circulation over northeast 

adjoining Central BOB. This circulation is persisting in 48 & 72 hrs forecast and showing its 

westward movement. Analysis shows that mid-latitude westerly trough runs along 30N/63E and 

40N/68E. In 24hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough is persisting along 65E and then 

disappearing in 48 & 72hr forecast. 

200mb: Analysis shows, mid-latitude westerly trough is along 32N/64E & 40N/68E. Tibetan 

anticyclone is located near 33.0N/85E. The core of TEJ is observed along 13-14N (south AP) with 

maxima up to 60kts. In 24hr forecast, mid-latitude westerly trough is almost stationary. Tibetan 

anticyclone has moved northeastward (34.0N/88E). TEJ at Chennai latitudes with wind speed of 

55kts. In 48hr forecast mid-latitude westerly trough has moved eastward and Tibetan anticyclone 

also moved eastward and now lies at 32.5N/96.5E. TEJ is over Trivandrum latitudes with wind 

speed of 55kts. In 72hr forecast, Tibetan anticyclone has slightly moved westward and now 

centred near 32.5N/93E. TEJ has two maxima, one lies south of Srilanka with maximum wind 

speed of 60 kts another maxima lies over south Gangetic West Bengal and south Bangladesh with 

maximum speed 50kts. 

Rainfall: 24hr forecast shows that under the influence of low pressure area over east Rajasthan 

and neighbourhood, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over Rajasthan adjoining southwest 

MP. Another rain-band is extending from eastcentral BoB to Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining 

areas. 48hr forecast also shows heavy rainfall over Rajasthan. Rainfall is also expected over GWB, 

Jharkhand, Bihar, Haryana, Uttrakhand, and Himachal Pradesh adjoining J&K, North & 

eastcentral BoB. In 72hr forecast, heavy rainfall is persisting over west Rajasthan. Another 

rainband is extending from north Andaman Sea to south GWB across eastcentral BoB, north BoB. 


Pressure Gradient: During last 3days pressure gradient over Arabian Sea (5.8mb) and Bay of 

Bengal (7.1mb) are continuously decreasing and have closer to the normal. 

Heat Low: Pressure associated with heat low is 998.5mb, located near 28.5N/70.5E (Khanpur, 

Southeast Pakistan). 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Tropical storm (KAI-TAK) is located near 

16.5N/126.0E, intensity T2.5/2.5 at 0830Z of today. System is likely to moves in WNW-ward 

direction and likely to make landfall on 17 th Aug/0000Z north of Hong-Kong (JTWC forecast). 

MJO: MJO index lies in phase 8 (Western Hemisphere and Africa) with amplitude more than 1. 

Forecast shows MJO will be in phase 1 during next 3-4days. 

The current meteorological conditions and NWP forecasts suggest that low pressure area over 

northwest MP will move in westward or northwest-ward direction during next 2days and then 

become less marked. Under the influence of this system heavy rainfall is expected over Rajasthan 

during next 2days. 

Accordingly there are mainly two significant differences in ECMWF & IMD GFS model: 

‣ Upto 72 hrs forecast, ECMWF model is showing more northwestward movement of the 

low pressure area, which is becoming less marked after reaching northwest Rajasthan. 

86

Whereas IMD-GFS is showing that low pressure is moving more in northward direction, it 

is becoming less marked over northeast Rajasthan in 72hr and then disappearing. 

‣ ECMWF is showing a cyclonic circulation over northeast BoB in 72hr forecast whereas 

IMD-GFS is not showing any such development. 

Similarly there are mainly tow differences in predicted rainfall by these two models which 

ECMWF showing heavy rainfall activities upto west Rajasthan upto 72hrs forecast whereas GFS 

shows heavy rainfall upto east Rajasthan in 48hrs forecast. ECMWF model is also showing 

persistent rainfall activities over North & eastcentral BOB and north Andaman Sea region. 

Large scale features like MJO is unfavourable. Tropical storm (KAI-TAK) is likely to moves in 

WNW-ward direction and will make landfall near 22.5N/116.E (north of Hong-Kong as per JTWC 

forecast) on 17 th Aug/0000Z. However on synoptic scale LLJ, TEJ are likely to be weaker, Tibetan 

high lies to its northeast, Mascarene high to its south as predicted by models. However during next 

2-3 days monsoon trough is likely to be near normal position. 



follows: 

Met Sub-division 

Date for IOP 

Rajasthan 14 th & 15 th August 2012 

Action during IOP period: 0000/0600/1200 UTC RS/RW observations to be ascertained over the 


87



88


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Jharkhand, east Rajasthan and Gujarat 

Region and active over Jammu & Kashmir. It has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, 

west Uttar Pradesh, Marathwada and Chattisgarh. 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining east Rajasthan now 

lies over east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh. Associated cyclonic 

circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Bikaner, centre of 

the low pressure area (close to Sawai Madhopur),Fursatganj, Varanasi, Dhanbad, Kolkata 

and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 


persists. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of 

north Orissa and West Bengal between 4.5 & 7.6 kms a.s.l. 



occurred at most places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and west coast; at 

many places over Gujarat region, west Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and coastal 

Odisha; at a few places over Bihar, Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh and Tamilnadu and at one or 

two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded 

at 0830 hours IST of today are: Ajmer11, Jaisalmer, Punalur and MountAbu7 each, Mayabandar6, 

Bhuntar, Atiramapatnam, Minicoy, Alleppy, Thiruvanantapuram, Ambikapur and Delhi5 each and 

Patna , Aminidevi, Dehradun, Kottayam and Dharamsala4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Jammu & Kashmir, 

Rajasthan, east Uttar Pradesh, west Bihar, north Andhra Pradesh, north & adjoining eastcentral 

Bay of Bengal, north Andaman sea and southeast Arabian Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over 

rest parts of the country. 

WEST RAJASTHAN: Raipur-12, Desuri-10, Luni-10, Sojat-7, Bilara-6, Ahore-6, Pali-6, 

Raniwada-6, Marwar Junction-6, Makrana-6, Siwana-5, Bali-5, Parbatsar-5, Jodhpur (Tehsil)-4, 

Shiv-4, Sinderi-4, Gudamalani-4, Fatehgarh-4, Jaitran-4, Pachpadra-4, Jodhpur (Agro)-4, 

Sanchore-3, Osian-3, Bautu-3, Pokhran-3, Rohat-3, Barmer-3, Jodhpur-3, Merta City-3, Jalore-3, 

Jodhpur (AWS)-3, Erinpura/Jawai Dam-3, Sumerpur-3, Khivensar-2, Jayal-2, Barmer (Tehsil)-2, 

Bhopalgarh-2, Jaisalmer (Tehsil)-1, Nawa-1, Shergarh-1, Jaisalmer-1, Rajgarh / Sadulpur-1, 

Nokh-1, Bagoda-1, Sayla-1, Balotra-1, Gida-1, Ramgarh-1, Bhinmal-1, Phalodi-1, Phalodi 

(Tehsil)-1, Degana-1, Chatargarh-1, Jaswantpura-1, EAST RAJASTHAN: Nimbahera-31, 

Badesar-26, Bhim-17, Mounnt Abu (Tehsil)-16, Nayanagar/Beawar-16, Chhotisadri-16, 

Jawaja-15, Bari-Sadri-14, Pratapgarh-14, Mount Abu-13, Tatgarh-13, Asind-13, Pipalkhunt-12, 

Deogarh-11, Rashmi-11, Dhariabad-11, Bijoliya-11, Vijaynagar-10, Pisagan-10, Mangliawas-10, 

Hurda-10, Chittorgarh-10, Gangrar-9, Bhinay-9, Aspur-8, Chothkabarwara -8, Kapasan-8, 

Pushkar-8, Sirohi-8, Gangdhar-7, Begu-7, Ghatol-7, Banera-7, Ajmer-7, Shergarh-7, Ajmer 

(AWS)-7, Sabla-7, Nasirabad-7, Jagpura-6, Deoli-6, Bhungra-6, Loharia-6, Kotri-6, Kekri-6, 

89

Geola-6, Dungla-6, Kumbhalgarh-6, Ajmer (Tehsil)-5, Raipur-5, Salumber-5, Nithuwa-5, 

Shahpura-5, Baswa-5, Reodar-5, Masuda-5, Malpura-5, Todaraisingh-5, Sawar-5, Arnod-5, 

Lalsot-4, Pipalda-4, Vallabhnagar-4, Sagwara-4, Mandalgarh-4, Sahada-4, Mandal-4, Galiakot-4, 

Dungerpur (AWS)-4, Jamwaramgarh-4, Sawaimadhopur (AWS)-4, Bundi-4, Bundi (AWS)-4, 

Ganeshpur-4, Khandar-4, Baseri-3, Amet-3, Piplu-3, Tonk (Tehsil)-3, Gogunda -3, Banswara-3, 

Sarwar-3, Arthuna-3, Banswara-3, Bagidora-3, Kishangarh-3, Dausa-3, Garhi-3, Kesarpura-3, 

Dhambola-3, Kanva-3, Kotda -3, Chikali-3, Dungarpur (Tehsil)-3, Pachpahar-3, Abu Road-3, 

Jahazpur-3, Jaipur (Agro)-3, Sanganer (Tehsil)-3, Jaipur (Aero)-3, Bhilwara (Tehsil)-3, 

Bhainsroadgarh-3, Sikrai-3, Srinagar-2, Arai-2, Sallopat-2, Sapotra-2, Karauli-2, Alwar-2, 

Sajjangarh-2, Anta (AWS)-2, Veja-2, Rajsamand-2, Rajsamand (AWS)-2, Nagrar Fort-2, Mavli-2, 

Baran-2, Sheoganj-2, Bahadurpur-2, Hindaun-2, Danta Ramgarh-2, Uniara / Aligarh-2, Tizara-2, 

Baran (AWS)-2, Bhopalsagar-2, Amer-2, Bassi-2, Degod-2, Jhadol-2, Gegal-2, Bansur-2, 

Shahpura-2, Rajgarh-2, Thanagazi-2, Hindoli-2, Chaksu-2, Jaipur (Tehsil)-2, Nathdwara-2, 

Pindwara-2, Banswara (Agro)-1, Pahari-1, Nainwa-1, Chomu-1, Asnawar-1, Malerainadunger-1, 

Anta-1, Chabra-1, Devel-1, Kotputli-1, Sawai Madhopur-1, Kaman-1, Dholpur (AWS)-1, 

Sangod-1, Gangapur-1, Sawaimadhopur Tesil-1, Govindgarh-1, Khushalgarh-1, Dholpur 

(Tehsil)-1, Beir-1, Talera-1, Udaipur-Wati-1, Girva-1, Alwar (AWS)-1, Chipabarod-1, Nadbai-1, 

Sarmathura-1, Todabhim-1, Udaipur (Agro AWS)-1, Indergarh-1, Kotkasim-1, Danpur-1, 

Mozamabad-1, Railmagra-1, Kherwara-1, Bari-1, Viratnagar-1, Jhalawar-1, Neem Ka Thana-1, 

90



91


‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Anupgarh, Narnaul, 

Hardoi, Ballia, Patna, Shantiniketan, Kolkata and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay 

of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level now runs as a feeble off-shore trough from south 

Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. 

‣ The low pressure area over east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh has 

merged with monsoon trough. However, the cyclonic circulation persists over north 

Rajasthan and neighbourhood extending upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of north 

Orissa and West Bengal persists and now extends between 3.6 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. 

‣ A western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric 

levels lies over north Pakistan and neighbourhood. System would move 

eastnortheastwards. 


RAINFALL (From 0830 hours IST 15 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 16 th Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Jammu & Kashmir and Rajasthan; at many places over Himachal 

Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, 

Lakshadweep, Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra, Kerala and Telengana; at 

a few places over east Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Assam, Tripura and Andaman & 

Nicobar Islands and at one or two places over Uttrakhand, Punjab, Haryana, East Uttar Pradesh, 

Bihar, Jharkhand, Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Marathwada, Vidarbha, interior 

Karnataka, Rayalaseema and Gujarat region. Weather remained mainly dry over rest Parts of the 


Jharsuguda22, Sundergarh16, Sambalpur12, Hirakud9, Dehradun and Bikaner7 each, Deomali and 

Aminidivi6 each, Vellore5 each and Barmer, Chittorgarh and Lengpui4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of west Rajasthan, east Uttar 

Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, north 

& eastcentral Bay of Bengal, north Andaman sea and south Arabian Sea. Low/medium clouds are 

seen over rest parts of the country. 

WEST RAJASTHAN: Lunkaransar-8, Jaisalmer-7, Jayal-7, Ladnoo-7, Kolayat Magra-7, 

Jaisalmer (Tehsil)-7, Bikaner (Tehsil)-5, Nokh-5, Makrana-5, Siwana-4, Degana-4, Merta (City)-4, 

Desuri-4, Nokha-4, Bilara-4, Khivensar-4, Nawa-4, Ramgarh-4, Osian-3, Nagaur (AWS)-3, 

Sojat-3, Didwana-3, Marwar Junction-3, Ahore-3, Nagaur (Tehsil)-3, Bikaner (PBO)-3, Bikaner 

(AWS)-3, Jodhpur (Tehsil)-3, Phalodi-3, Bali-3, Jodhpur-2, Bikaner Agro-2, Raniwada-2, Jodhpur 

Agro-2, Raipur-2, Parbatsar-2, Sujangarh-2, Sum-2, Jodhpur (AWS)-2, Phalodi (Tehsil)-2, 

Erinpura/Jawai Dam-2, Sumerpur-2, Ratangarh-2, Jalore-1, Balotra-1, Bhopalgarh-1, Rohat-1, 

Jaswantpura-1, Pali-1, Pachpadra-1, Sayla-1, Shergarh-1, Bhinmal-1, Luni-1, Ramsar-1, 

Chatargarh-1, EAST RAJASTHAN: Mangliawas-23, Masuda-22, Tatgarh-21, Nasirabad-19, 

Pushkar-17, Pisagan-14, Bhinay-13, Geola-13, Jawaja-11, Ajmer-11, Nayanagar/Beawar-11, 

Ajmer (AWS)-11, Todaraisingh-10, Sarwar-9, Bhim-9, Malpura-9, Hurda-8, Mount Abu-7, 

92

Vijaynagar-7, Mounnt Abu (Tehsil)-7, Deogarh-5, Kekri-5, Ajmer (Tehsil)-5, Mandalgarh-5, 

Hindoli-5, Pindwara-5, Chomu-4, Rajsamand (AWS)-4, Kumbhalgarh-4, Jaipur (Tehsil)-4, 

Sirohi-4, Reodar-3, Shahpura-3, Dholpur (Tehsil)-3, Tonk (Tehsil)-3, Srinagar-3, Uniara / 

Aligarh-3, Phagi-3, Sanganer (Tehsil)-3, Govindgarh-3, Asind-3, Deoli-3, Baseri-3, Malakhera-3, 

Raipur-3, Rajsamand-3, Shergarh-2, Nagar-2, Kotri-2, Dholpur (AWS)-2, Amer-2, Gegal-2, 

Gogunda-2, Kesarpura-2, Abu Road-2, Bijoliya-2, Pratapgarh-2, Mahwa-2, Danta Ramgarh-2, 

Railmagra-2, Rajgarh-2, Bhilwara (Tehsil)-2, Gangrar-2, Rashmi-2, Arnod-2, Naraina-2, Jaipur 

(AP)-1, Alwar-1, Bagidora-1, Lalsot-1, Nadoti-1, Sheoganj-1, Piplu-1, Udaipur (AP)-1, 

Nimarana-1, Alwar (AWS)-1, Banera-1, Mandal-1, Jamwaramgarh-1, Amet-1, Sikar (Tehsil)-1, 

Banswara-1, Danpur-1, Ghatol-1, Sarmathura-1, Chikali-1, Bassi-1, Arai-1, Bhungra-1, Nainwa-1, 

Bari Sadri-1, Aspur-1, Bansur-1, Kathumer-1, Banswara-1, Nadbai-1, Rupbas-1, Rajakhera-1, 

Ganeshpur-1, Kanva-1, Pipalkhunt-1, Kotda-1, Udaipur (AWS)-1, Indergarh-1, Sawar-1, 

Lachmangarh-1, Loharia-1, Bundi (AWS)-1, Begu-1, Chittorgarh-1, Nimbahera-1, Galiakot-1, 

Nithuwa-1, Chaksu-1, Dhariabad-1, Nathdwara-1, Kherwara-1, Vallabhnagar-1, Kishangarh-1, 

Jagpura-1, Khushalgarh-1, Sallopat-1, Sahada-1, Bundi-1, Mozamabad-1, Viratnagar-1, Pipalda-1, 

Bamanwas-1, Sawaimadhopur (Tesil)-1, 

93



94




‣ The low pressure area over east Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh has 

merged with monsoon trough. However, the cyclonic circulation persists over north 

Rajasthan and neighbourhood extending upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal 

areas of north Odisha and West Bengal persists and now extends between 3.6 & 5.8 kms 

a.s.l. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Anupgarh, Narnaul, 

Hardoi, Ballia, Patna, Shantiniketan, Kolkata and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay 

of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ A western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid-tropospheric 

levels lies over north Pakistan and neighborhoods. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level now runs as a feeble off-shore trough from south 



Rainfall has occurred at most places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan 

and west coast; at many places over Gujarat region, west Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal 

and coastal Odisha; at a few places over Bihar, Jharkhand, north Chhattisgarh and Tamilnadu and 

at one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Ajmer 11, Jaisalmer, Punalur and Mount Abu 7 each, 

Mayabandar 6, Bhuntar, Atiramapatnam, Minicoy, Alleppy, Thiruvanantapuram, Ambikapur and 

Delhi 5 each and Patna Aminidevi, Dehradun, Kottayam and Dharamsala 4 each. 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over west Rajasthan, north adjoining eastcentral BoB, 

north Andaman Sea, southeast Arabian Sea and one cloud-band over Indian Ocean along equator 

between latitude 4.0N to 3.0S longitude 78.0E to 95.0E. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

Analysis (MSLP & 850hPa) shows that low pressure area over northwest MP adjoining Rajasthan 

has weakened and now lay as a cyclonic circulation over northeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood 

area. Analysis also shows a north-south trough over north BoB and West Bengal region. 24hr 

forecast shows that cyclonic circulation over northeast Rajasthan slightly moved north-westwards 

and now centred near north-central Rajasthan & adjoining area. In 48hrs forecast circulation 

further moved northwest-ward and now lays as a feeble cyclonic circulation over extreme 

northwest Rajasthan adjoining Pakistan. 

24 hrs forecast also shows formation of a cyclonic circulation over north BoB & adjoining 

Gnagatic West Bengal. 48hrs forecast valid for 17 th August/0000UTC shows that under the 

influence of this cyclonic circulation, a low pressure area may develop over northwest Bay of 

Bengal adjoining Gangetic West Bengal and north coastal Odisha. 72hr forecast shows slight 

southwest-ward movement of the low pressure area. 

95

Analysis shows strength of Somali Jet is about 40kts. The strength of Somali Jet is decreasing in 

24hrs (35kts) and 48hrs (30kts) forecast and then it remain same in 72 hrs (30kts) forecast. 

500mb: Cyclonic circulation over North Rajasthan adjoining area is persisting & tilting 

southward with height in 500mb analysis, 24hrs & 48hrs forecast. There is a trough in mid-latitude 

westerly over north Pakistan which is moving east northeastwards in next 24hrs forecast. 

200mb/100mb: Tibetan anticyclone is located far east of its normal position centred near 

32.0N/97.0E. In next 24hrs (32.5N/93.0E) & 48hrs (32.5N/91.0E) forecast Tibetan anticyclone 

slightly shift westward and remain stationary in 72hrs forecast. 

The core of TEJ is observed along 10N (south Tamilnadu) with maximum wind speed upto 65kts. 

24hrs forecast shows two branches of TEJ, one south of Trivandrum latitudes with maximum wind 

speed of 60 kts and another along north BoB and North Odisha latitude with maximum wind speed 

of 60 kts. In 48hr forecast core of the TEJ is along 18N/80E with maximum wind speed upto 70 

kts, which further increased upto 80kts along the same latitude in 72hr forecast. 

Rainfall: Under the influence of cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan, 24hr forecast shows heavy 

rainfall over southwest Rajasthan. Rainfall is also expected over rest Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, 

south GWB, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West coast and North-east States. 48hr forecast shows that 

rainfall will increase over Odisha, Chhattisgarh & Jharkhand and decrease over Rajasthan & 

adjoining areas. 72hr forecast shows that rainfall will decrease over Odisha, Chhattisgarh & 

Jharkhand but rain patch will extend north-ward upto east UP across Bihar, Sub-Himalayan West 

Bengal. 


Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Tropical storm (KAI-TAK) previously 

located near 16.5N/126.0E, intensity T2.5/2.5 at 13 th August/0830Z has further intensified & 

moved north-westward and now centred near 19.3N/119.1E, intensity T3.5/3.5. System is likely to 

moves in WNW-ward direction and likely to make landfall over southeast China near Hong-Kong 

around 1200UTC of 16 th August (JTWC & JMA forecast). 


Forecast shows MJO will remain in phase 1 during next 3-4days. 

The current meteorological conditions and NWP forecasts suggest that under the influence of 

upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas a low 

pressure area may develop over northwest Bay of Bengal around 17 th August2012. 


Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and large scale features IOP is 

declared as follows: 

Met Sub-division 

Date for IOP 

Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha 

and Northwest Bay of Bengal. 

17 th August 2012 



96




‣ Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and 

adjoining coastal areas of north Orissa and West Bengal, a low pressure area has formed 

over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation extends 

upto 7.6 kms a.s.l. tilting southwestwards with height. 


foothills of the Himalayas and the eastern part passes through Baharaich, Gorakhpur, Gaya, 

Bankura, centre of the low pressure area and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of 

Bengal. It extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan and neighbourhood now lies over northwest 

Rajasthan and neighbourhood and extends between 2.1 & 3.6 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid 

tropospheric levels over north Pakistan and neighbourhood now lies over north Pakistan 

and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir. System would move eastnortheastwards. 


Rainfall has occurred at many places over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, 

west coast, Tamilnadu and Lakshadweep; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, 

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, North eastern states and Andaman & Nicobar 

Islands and at one or two places over rest parts of the country outside Saurashtra & Kutch and 

Rayalaseema where weather remained mainly dry The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and 

above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Gaya16, Thrissur9, Agathi and Agartala7 

each, Valparai, Nedumbassery and Sundergarh6 each, Hirakud, Punalur, Kochi and 

Kodaikanal5 each and Kottayam, Sambalpur and Jharsuguda4 each. 


INSAT imageries show convective clouds over east Uttar Pradesh adjoining northeast Madhya 

Pradesh, Orissa adjoining north coastal AP, north & central Bay of Bengal, Kerala Coast, 

southeast Arabian Sea adjoining Indian Ocean. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: Low pressure area has formed over north Bay. Low pressure area is slightly moving 

westward and lay over NW Bay adjoining Odisha coast in 24 hr forecast. 48 forecasts shows 

further westward movement of the system & located over northeast coastal Odisha adjoining NW 

Bay whereas model shows a diffused low over Jharkhand and adjoining areas in 72 hr forecast. 

Western end of the monsoon trough is continuously lying over foothills of Himalayas up to 72hr 

forecast. 

At 500mb: Analysis shows trough in mid-latitude westerly is persisting over West Pakistan and 

neighbourhood which is moving NE-ward in the next 48 hr forecast. 

97

At 200mb: Analysis shows Tibetan anticyclone (TA) is located near 32N/90E. 24hr forecast 

shows westward movement of TA and located near 31.5N/84.5E next 48hr forecast also shows 

further westward movement of TA and now centered near 33N/73E. Model is continuously 

showing westward movement of TA up to 96hr forecast (32N/63.5E). 

Rainfall: 24hr forecast shows rainfall is over Orissa, 48hr forecast shows rainfall will be over 

Chhattisgarh; in 96hr forecast rainfall is over MP & Vidharbha where as in 120hr forecast shows 

heavy rainfall over eastern part of MP. 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: ECMWF is also showing a low pressure area has formed over North Bay. Low 

pressure area is slightly moving southwestward and lay over NW Bay adjoining Odisha coast in 24 

hr forecast. 48 forecasts shows further westward movement of the system and located over coastal 

Odisha adjoining Bay. In 72 hr forecast model shows a low over south Chhattisgarh and adjoining 

Vidharbha which is disappearing in 96 hr forecast. This model is also showing that western end of 

the monsoon trough will lying over foothills of Himalayas up to 72hr forecast. 

At 500mb: same as in IMD-GFS. 

At 200mb: Analysis shows Tibetan anticyclone (TA) is located near 32N/90E. Like IMD-GFS 

model it is also showing westward movement over TA and it is located over northwest Pakistan 

adjoining area (33.5N/67.5E) in 96 hr forecast. 

Rainfall: There is a consensus up to 2-days, and moves northwest direction. All models are 

showing rainfall over northwest India due to influence of westerly trough. Rainfall would increase 

over Orissa and Chhattisgarh. Rain is confined in the vicinity of low and another belt is along 

Himalayas, one band is over 



Pressure Gradient: Today pressure gradient over Arabian Sea is normal (4.5mb) but during last 

3days it was below normal. Over Bay of Bengal pressure gradient are more or less close to normal 

during last 6-days. 

Mascarene High: Is located at 38S/66.5E (Southeast of Madagascar) with central pressure 1031 

hPa. A baroclinic low exists far south of Madagascar near 46S/36E with central pressure 990hPa. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Tropical storm (KAI-TAK) previously 

located near 19.3N/114.6E with intensity T4.0/4.0 on 16 th August/0832 UTC has further moved 

northwest-ward with slightly decreased in intensity and now located near 21.4N/107.8E, intensity 

T3.5/4.0. System is likely to moves in WNW-ward direction and likely to make landfall on 17 th 

Aug/0000Z north of Hong-Kong (JTWC forecast). 


Forecast shows MJO will be in phase 2 during next 3-4days. 

All models show that low pressure area enters Odisha coast in 48hrs but there is a difference 

among models in movement of low pressure. ECMWF shows westward movement, whereas IMD- 

GFS shows northwest ward movement and NCMRWF is in between ECMWF & IMD-GFS. 

ECMWF and NCMRWF bring broad easterly flow over Gangetic plains right up to northwest 

India in 72hr forecast. Whereas, IMD-GFS bring easterly flow up to 80E. There are certain 

98

differences with regard to centre of low which would make a significant difference in rainfall as 

well. 




1. Odisha and Chhattisgarh 18,19,20 th August 

Action during IOP period: 

0000/0600/1200 UTC RS/RW observations to be ascertained over the stations in above subdivisions. 

99



100


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Orissa and Kerala and active over 

Himachal Pradesh and coastal Karnataka. It has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, 

Assam & Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu & Kashmir, Gujarat State, 

Marathwada and north interior Karnataka. 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood now lies over 

northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Orissa and West Bengal. 

Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 7.6 kms a.s.l. tilting southwestwards with 

height. 


foothills of the Himalayas and the eastern part passes through Sultanpur, Daltonganj, 

Baripada, centre of the low pressure area and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of 



persists. 


tropospheric levels over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir now lies over 

Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan. System would move east northeastwards. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan and neighbourhood has become less 

marked. 


RAINFALL(♦ From 0830 hours IST of 18 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 19 th Aug):Rainfall has 

occurred at many places over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, 

Vidarbha, north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, west coast, Lakshadweep and 

Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Uttar Pradesh, SubHimalayan West Bengal & 

Sikkim, northeastern states, Jharkhand, west Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra and interior 

Karnataka and at one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 

cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Bramhapuri29, Dehradun19, Katra17, 

Sambalpur and Mumbai(Scz)8 each, Hirakud, Karaikal, Bhira, Honavar and Chandrapur7 each, 

Bhawanipatna and Mahabaleshwar6 each, Jalpaiguri, Sundernagar, Koraput and Bilaspur5 each, 

Jagdalpur, Hamirpur(U.P.), Najibabad, Tinsukhya, Tikamgarh, Mana, Angul, Titlagarh, and 

Rajnandgaon4 each. 

CLOUDS: Kalpana1: 

Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Western Himalayan 

region, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Telengana, 

northeastern states, Central & Southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman sea and southeast Arabian sea. 

Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

ODISHA: Banki (ARG)-23, Phulbani-23, Daspalla-19, Phiringia (ARG)-19, Nayagarh-19, 

Athgarh-18, Hindol-17, Ranpur-17, Baliguda-17, Narsinghpur-17, Khandapara-16, Similiguda 

(AWS)-16, Kantamal-15, Mundali-15, Kujanga (ARG)-14, Gania (ARG)-13, Rajkanika-13, 

101

Odagaon (ARG)-13, Jagannath Prasad (ARG)-13, Paradeep (CWR)-13, Laikera-12, 

Krishnaprasad-12, Talcher-12, Kantapada (ARG)-11, Kalinga-11, Madhabarida-11, Chandbali-11, 

Belaguntha (ARG)-11, Naraj-10, Niali (ARG)-10, Nimpara-10, Kolabira (ARG)-10, Dunguripalli- 

10, Kashipur (ARG)-10, Bhubaneswar (AP)-9, Barmul-9, Aska-9, Balipatna (ARG)-9, Alipingal- 

9, Tigiria (ARG)-9, Banarpal (ARG)-9, Pattamundai-9, Binika-9, Tangi-9, Puri-9, Satyabadi 

(ARG)-9, Jujumura (ARG)-9, Paikmal-9, Kirmira (ARG)-9, Pipili-8, Soro-8, Parjang (ARG)-8, 

Tarva (ARG)-8, Hirakud-7, Bhanjnagar-7, Cuttack-7, Hemgiri-7, Chhatrapur-7, Sonepur-7, 

Harabhanga-7, Burla (ARG)-6, Khairamal-6, Nawana-6, Kendrapara-6, Berhampur-6, Pottangi-6, 

Tirtol (ARG)-6, Ullunda (ARG)-6, Rajghat-6, Rajkishorenagar-6, Barpalli (ARG)-6, Marsaghai 

(ARG)-6, Samakhunta (AWS)-6, Astaranga (ARG)-6, Sambalpur-6, Balasore-6, Basudevpur 

(AWS)-6, Tihidi (ARG)-6, Sorada-6, Purushottampur-6, Atabira (ARG)-6, Bhuban (ARG)-6, 

Banpur-6, Brahmagiri (AWS)-5, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-5, NH5 Gobindpur-5, Koraput-5, Bari 

(ARG)-5, Ranital (AWS)-5, Boudhgarh-5, Binjharpur (ARG)-5, Tikarpara-5, Baripada-5, Bonth-5, 

Balikuda (ARG)-5, Jagatsinghpur (AWS)-5, Danagadi (ARG)-5, Nilgiri-4, Daitari-4, Bhadrak 

(AWS)-4, Angul-4, Pallahara-4, Raghunathpur (ARG)-4, Jaleswar-4, Dhamnagar (ARG)-4, 

Dhenkanal-4, Gop-4, Rairakhol-4, Altuma Cwc-4, Bargarh-4, Gurundia (ARG)-4, Keiri (AWS)-4, 

Rajgangpur-4, Digapahandi (ARG)-4, Bamra (ARG)-4, Akhuapada-4, Nischintakoili (ARG)-4, 

Kankadahad (ARG)-4, Derabis (ARG)-4, Joshipur-3, Bijepur-3, Padampur-3, Jenapur-3, 

Chandipur (AWS)-3, Salepur (ARG)-3, Narla (ARG)-3, Balimundali-3, Mohana-3, Gopalpur-3, 

Sukinda-3, Madanpur Rampur-3, Betanati (ARG)-3, Athmalik-3, Garadapur (ARG)-3, Bargaon-3, 

Mandira Dam-3, Jharsuguda-3, Kamakhyanagar-3, Kaptipada (ARG)-3, Rairangpur-3, Bhograi-3, 

Mahanga (ARG)-3, Raighar (ARG)-3, Deogarh-3, Thakurmunda-3, Bissem Cuttack-3, Lanjigarh- 

3, Kuchinda-3, Ambabhona-2, Gaisilet (ARG)-2, Mahendragarh-2, Bolangir-2, Khaprakhol 

(ARG)-2, Korei (ARG)-2, Deogaon-2, Malkangiri-2, Udala-2, Saintala (ARG)-2, Jaipur-2, Jajpur- 

2, Panposh-2, Loisingha (ARG)-2, Jamankira-2, Remuna (ARG)-2, Balisankara (ARG)-2, Joda 

(ARG)-2, Anandpur-2, Jharbandh (ARG)-2, Sohela-2, Chandanpur-2, Sundargarh-2, Batli (ARG)- 

2, Patnagarh-2, Swam Patna-2, Kashinagar-2, Gunupur-2, Chendipada-1, Jaipatna-1, Lahunipara- 

1, Keonjhargarh-1, Jamsolaghat-1, Belpada (ARG)-1, Junagarh-1, Telkoi-1, Rayagada-1, 

Banaigarh (AWS)-1, Ghatagaon-1, Karanjia-1, Nawarangpur-1, Belgaon-1, Bangiriposi-1, 

Jeypore-1, Titlagarh-1, Gudari-1, Jhumpura-1, Nuagada (ARG)-1, Kotraguda-1, Bhawanipatna-1, 

Muniguda (ARG)-1, Kesinga (ARG)-1, Tentulikhunti (ARG)-1, CHHATTISGARH: Champa-5, 

Manendragarh-4, Dantewara-3, Sukma-3, Bhanupratappur-3, Baikunthpur-3, Janjgir-2, Saraipali- 

2, Sakti-2, Kanker-2, Bijapur-1, Pendra Road-1, Jashpurnagar-1, Mungeli-1, Jagdalpur-1, 

Kondagaon-1, 

102



103


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Vidarbha and Telangana and active over 

Uttarakhand, east Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa and Chattisgarh. It has been subdued 

over West Bengal & Sikkim, east Uttar Pradesh, west Rajasthan and Gujarat State. 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Orissa 

and West Bengal moved inland and now lies over Chattisgarh and neighbourhood. 


height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ferozepur, Rohtak, 

Gwalior, Damoh, centre of the low pressure area (close to Raipur), Gopalpur and thence 

southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 


persists. 


tropospheric levels over Jammu & Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan now lies over 

northern parts of Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood. System would move 

eastnortheastwards. 


RAINFALL(From 0830 hours IST of 19 th Aug to 0830 hours ♦ IST of 20 th Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Vidarbha and Konkan & Goa; at a 

many places over west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal & 

Sikkim, northeastern states, coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places 

over Uttarakhand, Haryana and coastal Andhra Pradesh and at one or two places over rest parts of 

the country outside Punjab, west Rajasthan, north Gujarat, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and 

Tamilnadu where weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Dharamsala18, Bramhapuri16, Cherrapunji and Jammu11 

each, Passighat and Chandrapur10 each, Dahanu and Gondia8 each, Bhira7, Sundernagar, Kolkata, 

Jorhat, Yeotmal, Jalpaiguri and Mahabaleshwar5 each and Shimla4. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Jammu &Kashmir, 

Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, 

northeastern states, west Madhya Pradesh, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, northeast Bay of Bengal 

and Andaman sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

ODISHA: Khaprakhol (ARG)-11, Patnagarh-11, Belpada (ARG)-10, Bolangir-10, Batagaon-10, 

Kosagumda-9, Burla (ARG)-9, Nawarangpur-8, Raighar (ARG)-8, Sambalpur-8, Tarva (ARG)-8, 

Madanpur Rampur-7, Nawapara-7, Jaipatna-7, Jhorigam (ARG)-7, Umarkote-7, Hirakud-7, 

Athmalik-6, Bhawanipatna-6, Altuma (CWC)-6, Kaniha (ARG)-6, Kantamal-5, Junagarh-5, 

Khairamal-5, Talcher-5, Tentulikhunti (ARG)-5, Belgaon-5, Rengali-5, Koraput-5, Jeypore-5, 

Sinapali (ARG)-5, Dabugan (ARG)-4, Nawana-4, Similiguda (AWS)-4, Titlagarh-4, Lanjigarh-4, 

Narla (ARG)-4, Chandahandi (ARG)-4, Angul-4, Rajkishorenagar-4, Pallahara-4, Malkangiri-4, 

104

Banarpal (ARG)-3, Remuna (ARG)-3, Boudhgarh-3, Baripada-3, Gudari-3, Daitari-3, Komna-3, 

Daspalla-3, Phiringia (ARG)-3, Khariar-3, Kotraguda-3, Boden (ARG)-3, Tikarpara-3, Gunupur-3, 

Rayagada-3, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-3, Pottangi-3, Khandapara-3, Sonepur-3, Phulbani-3, Swam- 

Patna-2, Nilgiri-2, Banki (ARG)-2, Harabhanga-2, Samakhunta (AWS)-2, Gania (ARG)-2, 

Barmul-2, Binjharpur (ARG)-2, Balipatna (ARG)-2, Nh5 Gobindpur-2, Kantapada (ARG)-2, 

Ullunda (ARG)-2, Dharmagarh (ARG)-2, Bhubaneswar Aero-2, Chandipur (AWS)-1, 

Mahendragarh-1, Kesinga (ARG)-1, Lahunipara-1, Balasore-1, Dhamnagar (ARG)-1, Mohana-1, 

Kashinagar-1, Binika-1, Akhuapada-1, Jamsolaghat-1, Mundali-1, Naraj-1, Chandanpur-1, 

Bhadrak (AWS)-1, Nimpara-1, Aska-1, Jenapur-1, Joda (ARG)-1, Jaipur-1, Sorada-1, Salepur 

(ARG)-1, Chandbali-1, CHHATTISGARH: Narayanpur-23, Saraipali-18, Bijapur-13, Kanker-11, 

Champa-8, Kondagaon-7, Gariabund-7, Simga-6, Janjgir-6, Mahasamund-5, Bilaspur-5, 

Bhopalpatnam-5, Deobhog-5, Katghora-5, Bhanupratappur-5, Pali-4, Rajnandgaon-4, Raipur 

(Mana AP)-4, Bemetara-4, Ambagarh Chowki-4, Jagdalpur-4, Dongargarh-4, Mungeli-4, 

Pallari/Palari-4, Dantewara-3, Dongargaon-3, Sukma-3, Sarangarh-3, Gandai-2, Raipur-2, Baloda 

Bazar-2, Dhamtari-2, Durg-2, Kawardha-2, Korba-1, Raigarh-1, 

105



106


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Vidarbha and active over Uttarakhand, 

Himachal Pradesh and Konkan & Goa. It has been subdued over Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu 

and north interior Karnataka. 

‣ The low pressure area over Chattisgarh and neighbourhood now lies over north Madhya 

Pradesh and neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric 

levels. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Ganganagar, 

Narnaul, Shivpuri, centre of the low pressure area (close to Tikamgarh), Pendra, 

Jharsuguda, Balasore and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. It extends 

upto 0.9 km a.s.l. Another branch of it extends from north Chattisgarh to Arunachal 

Pradesh across Jharkhand and Assam & Meghalaya. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level now runs from south Maharashtra coast to 

north Kerala coast. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies between 1.5 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. over Gujarat Region and 


‣ The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over northern parts of Jammu 

& Kashmir and neighbourhood has moved away northeastwards. 


RAINFALL(From 0830 hours IST of 20 th Aug to 0830 ♦ hours IST of 21 st Aug): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh, east 

Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka and northeastern states; at many places over 

Jammu & Kashmir, east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and West 

Bengal & Sikkim and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Punjab, south Gujarat, 

Odisha and Lakshadweep and at one or two places over rest parts of the country outside west 

Rajasthan, north Gujarat and Tamilnadu where weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts 

of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Cherrapunji38, Shillong and 

Baghdogra13 each, Bhopal and Majbat12 each, Bhiwani11, Dharamshala, Diamond Harbour, 

Chandigarh and Haldia9 each, Shirali, Rohtak and Rangia8 each, Passighat, Katra and Meerut7 

each, Jalpaiguri6, Narnaul, Delhi (Sad), Hoshangabad, Nahan and Hissar5 each and Jagdalpur and 

Jaipur4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Himachal Pradesh, 

Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh, 

SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, south Bay of 

Bengal and Andaman Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

ODISHA: Kalinga-2, Sorada-2, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-2, Anandpur-1, Bhubaneswar (AP)-1, 

Chandanpur-1, Naraj-1, Similiguda (AWS)-1, Deogaon-1, Sambalpur-1, Laikera-1, Hirakud-1, 

Panposh-1, Mundali-1, Phiringia (ARG)-1, Gurundia (ARG)-1, CHHATTISGARH: 

Bhopalpatnam-4, Dongargarh-3, Dantewara-3, Simga-3, Bijapur-3, Jashpurnagar-3, Gandai-2, 

Bhanupratappur-2, Bemetara-2, Dongargaon-2, Mahasamund-2, Rajnandgaon-1, Jagdalpur-1, 

Ambagarh Chowki-1, Pallari/Palari-1, Sukma-1. 

107



108

Date: 22 nd August 2012 



‣ The low pressure area over north Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh now l 

ies over south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya Pradesh and associated 

cyclonic circulation extends up to mid tropospheric levels tilting south westwards with 

height. 

‣ The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Ganganagar, Dholpur, centre 

of low pressure area, Daltonganj, Berhampore and thence eastwards to east Assam. 

‣ The feeble off shore trough at mean sea level runs from Maharashtra coast to south 

Karnataka coast. 

‣ The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gujarat region and neighbourhood persists between 

2.1 to 4.5 Km above mean sea level. 


Rainfall has occurred at mostplaces over Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and 

Vidarbha; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh 

Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, West Bengal & Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, west coast, Lakshadweep 

and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few place over Madhya Maharashtra Odisha, Andhra 

Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura and at one or two places over rest parts of 

the country outside west Rajasthan, north Gujarat, north interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu 

where weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall ( 5 cm and above) recorded 

at 0830 hours IST of today are: Swaimadhopur21, Jaipur, Cherrapunji and Sheopur17 each, 

Shivpuri13, Ghazipur and Pachmarhi12, Agartala and Agra10 each, Canning9, Satna 

and Shillong8 each, Narnaul and Orai7 each, Chandigarh, Diamond Harbour, Jhalawar, 

Datia, Sundergarh, Balurghat6 each, Rajgarh, Malanjkhand, Coochbehar, Darjeeling, Malda, 

Haldia, Jammu, Tehri, Ambala, Arogyavaram, Hut bay and Guna5 each. 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over Rajasthan, Punjab, northeast Pakistan adjoining 

southwest J&K, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya west Assam and Andaman Sea. 

NWP Guidance: 

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: analysis shows low pressure area centred over NE-MP adjoining UP. In the next 24hr 

forecast it shows weakening of the system and northwestward movement (North Rajasthan). 

Eastern end of monsoon trough will remain north of normal position extending up to Arunachal 

Pradesh. Whereas 48 hr forecast indicates slight northward movement of the less marked system 

and eastern parts of the system close to the foothills. 72 hr forecast valid for 25 th August /00UTC 

shows formation of cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay whereas western part of the monsoon 

trough still lies in the foothills. Cyclonic circulation is moving westward, north Odisha coast 

adjoining NW-Bay in 96 hr forecast. 

At 200mb: Analysis shows anticyclone over East Iran adjoining Pakistan. Next 24 &48hr forecast 

shows eastward shifting of anticyclone lying over north Pakistan. TA is located over west Tibet in 

the 72 & 96 hr forecast. 

109

Rainfall: 24 hr forecast shows very heavy rainfall over east Rajasthan and a small patch of heavy 

rainfall over Punjab. Main rainfall belt is extending from NW-India to Arunachal Pradesh across 

Gangetic plains. 48 hr forecast shows rainfall belt over north Rajasthan adjoining Haryana, HP, 

Uttarakhand and northeast India. In the 72 hr forecast shows main rainfall band along the foothills 

of Himalaya and Odisha adjoining area. 

UKMO: 

At 850mb: Model also shows northward shifting of monsoon trough during next 2-3 days. It also 

shows formation of a cyclonic circulation over north BoB during next 72-96Hr forecast. 

At 200mb: Like ECMWF analysis shows location of anticyclone over east Iran and 24-48 hr 

forecast shows eastward movement of anticyclone located over north Pakistan region. 72-96hr 

forecast shows further eastward movement of anticyclone situated over west Tibet. 

Rainfall: day 1 forecast shows heavy rainfall over north Rajasthan. Main rainfall belt is along the 

foothills of Himalaya extending from NW-India to NE India including Gangetic plains. In day 2 

forecast rainfall belt remain same with decrease in intensity over Rajasthan and foothills. Rainfalls 

remain more or less same in day-3 & day-4 forecast. 



Pressure Gradient: The gradients over Arabian Sea and BoB are below normal. 

Axis of Monsoon Trough: The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through 

Ganganagar, Dholpur, centre of low pressure area, and Daltonganj, Berhampore and thence east 

wards to east Assam. 

Heat Low: Pressure associated with heat low is 999hPa. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon (TEMBIN) located near 

22.5N/124.4E with slight decrease in intensity (T4.0/T4.5) at 0232 UTC/22August and at 0832 

UTC/22August it was re-intensified and located near 22.6N/124.4E with intensity (T4.5/T4.5). 

This system (TEMBIN) is likely to move in northwestward direction and may make landfall over 

Taiwan by 23 rd August evening (JTWC). Whereas typhoon „BOLAVEN‟ which is located near 

19.1N/137.5E with intensity T4.5/T4.5 at 0832 UTC of today. Typhoon (BOLAVEN) is likely to 

intensify further & move in northwestward direction during next 3-4 days. 

MJO: MJO is in phase 2 and amplitude near 1and forecast indicates that MJO is likely to move in 

phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. 

All three models (ECMWF, UKMO, and GFS) indicate shifting of monsoon trough to foothills in 

next 72-96 hr forecast. Confidence of GFS (based on 21 st August/0000UTC) ensemble forecast is 

high. All India rainfall may decrease between 23 rd -25 th August. ECMWF & UKMO shows 

development of cyclonic circulation over northwest BoB on 25 th -26 th August. 


Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and large scale features no IOP is declared. 

110



111




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over west Rajasthan, Rayalaseema and south 

interior Karnataka and active over SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Haryana and 

Himachal Pradesh. It has been subdued over west Madhya Pradesh. 

‣ The western part of the axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level runs close to foothills 

of the Himalayas. The eastern part passes through Gorakhpur, Chapra, Shantiniketan and 

thence southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 0.9 km a.s.l. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to north 

Kerala coast persists. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto 0.9 km a.s.l. lies over north Bay of Bengal and 


‣ The cyclonic circulation embedded in the east-west shear zone over south east Arabian Sea 

and adjoining Lakshadweep area now lies over east central Arabian Sea off Goa-Karnataka 

coasts between 3.1 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels over Haryana and 

neighbourhood moved westwards and merged with the circulation associated with the Heat 

Low. 


Rainfallhas occurred at many places over Himachal Pradesh,Haryana,Delhi,Chandigarh, Ra 

jasthan,Uttar Pradesh, SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, northeastern states, Andhra Prades 

h,south interior Karnataka,and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places over Uttarakhand,Biha 

r, Gangetic West Bengal,Chhattisgarh,Marathwada, west coast and Lakshadweep andatone or two 

places over rest parts of the country.The chief amounts of rainfall (5 cm and above) recorded at 

0830 hours IST of today is: Dharamshala18, Bareilly13, Coochbehar12, Bagdogra8 

Khammam and Itanagar7 each, Canning, Bangalore and north Lakhimpur6 each and Sikar, 

Golaghat, Basirhat, Dhubri and Anantapur5 each 

.Satellite Inference 

Cloud imagery at 0830 hours ISTshows convective clouds overparts ofnorth Rajasthan, West Beng 

al, Assam & Meghalaya, Orissa, Karnataka, northwest &east Bay of Bengal, Andaman sea and sou 

theast Arabian Sea. Low/medium clouds areseen over rest parts of the country. 

NWP Guidance: 

IMD GFS: 

At 850mb: 72 hr forecast shows formation of cyclonic circulation over Odisha. 

At 200mb: In 48 hr forecast position of Tibetan anticyclone is over north of Nepal. 72 hr forecast 

shows it lies over Tibet. 

Rainfall: In 24hr forecast rainfall is along the trough line and also south of trough line. 48hr 

forecast shows heavy rainfall patches over Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and J&K. 72hr forecast 

shows heavy rainfall is over southcentral Madhya Pradesh and northeast Maharashtra. 

112

ECMWF: 

At 850mb: 72 hr forecast shows formation of cyclonic circulation over Odisha. 

At 200mb: In 24hr forecast position of Tibetan anticyclone is over east of Himachal Pradesh. 48 

hr forecast shows position of Tibetan anticyclone is over north of Nepal. 72 hr forecast shows it 

lies over Tibet. 

Rainfall: In 24hr forecast heavy rainfall is along south of trough line. 48hr forecast shows two 

rain bands, one from Srinagar to Arunachal Pradesh along foothills and another is along east UP, 

east MP, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and dipping in to BoB. 72hr forecast shows some patches of rain 

over Chhattisgarh, Konkan, Karnataka and Kerala coasts and also heavy rainfall patch over west 

UP. 

UKMO: 

At 850mb: 72 hr forecast shows formation of cyclonic circulation over west Bengal. 

At 200mb: 24 & 48hr forecast shows Tibetan Anticyclone is located west of Delhi, whereas in 

72hr forecast it lies northwest of Tibet. 

Rainfall: 24hr forecast shows rainfall is along trough line and south of trough line. 48hr forecast 

shows rainfall over northwest UP, east Rajasthan, Delhi and along west coast. 72hr forecast shows 

rainfall over north Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, northeast UP, Odisha, Konkan and Karnataka 

coasts. 

Buoys: There is no meridional gradient in SST. Highest SST‟s are in equatorial latitudes. 


Pressure Gradient: The gradients over Arabian Sea and BoB are below normal. 

Axis of Monsoon Trough: The western end of monsoon trough at mean sea level runs 

closed to foot hills of Himalayas and eastern end passes through Gorakhpur, Chhapra, 

Shantiniketan and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

Mascarene High: Mascarene high is located near south Mozambique Channel with central 

pressure 1020hpa (39S/43E). 

Low-Level Jet: Cross equatorial flow is rather weak and ridge lies over west coast. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon (TEMBIN) is located near 

22.3N/119.5E with decrease in intensity (T4.5/T4.5) at 0832 UTC/24August and likely to move 

westwards till 1200UTC/25 th August. Another typhoon „BOLAVEN‟ is located near 

22.0N/133.0E with increase in intensity T5.5/T5.5 at 0832 UTC of today and would likely to move 

northwards. 

Easterlies are to the north of Gangetic plains extended up to 75E. 

Monsoon trough may come south by 27 th August and rain activity would increase after sluggish for 

25 th & 26 th August. 

The major difference is that, in 72hr forecast NCMRWF shows formation of cyclonic circulation 

over West Bengal whereas ECMWF and GFS show formation of cyclonic circulation over Odisha. 

113




1. Odisha, West Bengal 26 th & 27 th August 



114



115


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Orissa, Himachal Pradesh, east Madhya 

Pradesh and Kerala and active over Haryana, Gujarat Region, Vidarbha, Chattisgarh and 

coastal & north interior Karnataka. 

‣ The low pressure area over North Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood now lies over 

northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of west Bengal and north Orissa. 


height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through Anupgarh, Pilani, Agra, 

Allahabad, Ranchi, centre of low pressure area and thence southeastwards to east central 

Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to north Kerala 

coast now extends from south Maharashtra coast to Lakshadweep area. 


RAINFALL (from 0830 hours IST of 26 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 27 th Aug):Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over west coast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at many places over 

Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, Madhya 

Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha, Marathawada, Madhya 

Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep; at a few places over 

Uttarakhand, Assam & Meghalaya, Bihar, Jharkhand, Saurashtra & Kutch and coastal Andhra 

Pradesh and at one or two places over rest part of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (5 cm 

and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Vengurla21, Chandrapur18, Bramhapuri and 

Panjim15each, Dabolim14, Maya Bandar13, Karnal12, Majbat, Raipur and Shirali11each, 

Harnai10,Karwar and Honavar9each, Udaipur and Siliguri8each, Rohtak, Dholpur, 

Mahabaleshwar, Ratnagiri, Gulbarga, Agumbe and Mangalore (Bajpe)7each, Sambalpur, Bhira 

and Mangalore (Panambur)6each and Jaipur, Orai and Kavali5 each. 

CLOUDS Kalpana1 

Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of southeast Himachal 

Pradesh, east Punjab, Haryana, east Rajasthan, southwest Uttar Pradesh, Assam, south Madhya 

Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telengana, north Karnataka, Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and east Arabian 

Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Tadong-1, Gangtok (AWS)-1, GANGETIC 

WEST BENGAL: Bagati-3, Tusuma-3, Barrackpur( (IAF)-2, Bankura(CWC)-2, Burdwan 

(PTO)-1, Burdwan (AWS)-1, Mohanpur-1, Bankura (AWS)-1, Bankura-1, Midnapore(CWC)-1, 

Midnapore-1, Sagar Island (AWS)-1, ODISHA: Hirakud-12, Burla (ARG)-10, Sundargarh-7, 

Umarkote-7, Sambalpur-7, Birmaharajpur (ARG)-6, Jagannath Prasad (ARG)-6, Belaguntha 

(ARG)-6, Kalinga-6, Deogarh-5, Bolagarh (ARG)-5, Bhuban (ARG)-5, Ullunda (ARG)-5, 

Bhanjnagar-5, Gania (ARG)-5, Angul-5, Kaniha (ARG)-4, Chendipada-4, Panposh-4, Mundali-4, 

Tikarpara-3, Hindol-3, Sonepur-3, Madhabarida-3, Belgaon-3, Naraj-3, Malkangiri-3, Barmul-3, 

Balimundali-3, Khaprakhol (ARG)-3, Cuttack-3, Phiringia (ARG)-3, Aska-3, Deogaon-2, 

Titlagarh-2, Gurundia (ARG)-2, Gunupur-2, Chhatrapur-2, Rengali-2, Samakhunta (AWS)-2, 

Astaranga (ARG)-2, Balisankara (ARG)-2, Khandapara-2, Tarva (ARG)-2, Lakhanpur (ARG)-2, 

116

Swam-Patna-2, Mahendragarh-2, Purushottampur-2, Gudari-2, Jeypore-2, NH5 Gobindpur-2, 

Keiri (AWS)-2, Daitari-2, Barkote-2, Mohana-2, Patnagarh-1, Binika-1, Pallahara-1, Soro-1, 

Jenapur-1, Baripada-1, Laikera-1, Keonjhargarh-1, Phulbani-1, Similiguda (AWS)-1, 

Dunguripalli-1, Jharsuguda-1, Paradeep-1, Bolangir-1, Bhograi-1, Chandipur (AWS)-1, Remuna 

(ARG)-1, Altuma (CWC)-1, Sorada-1, Basudevpur (AWS)-1, Chandanpur-1, Rayagada-1, 

Balasore-1, Paralakhemundi-1, Mandira Dam-1, Kotraguda-1, 

117



118


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over east Rajasthan, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha 

and coastal & north interior Karnataka and active over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & 

Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, 

Chattisgarh, Telangana, south interior Karnataka and Kerala. It has been subdued over 

Jammu & Kashmir. 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of west 

Bengal and north Orissa has moved inland yesterday evening and now lies over Jharkhand 

and adjoining areas of north Chattisgarh and Orissa. Associated cyclonic circulation 

extends upto mid tropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards with height. 


Narnaul, Agra, Banda, Sidhi, centre of low pressure area (close to Ranchi), Balasore and 

thence southeastwards to north Andaman Sea It extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. 


Lakshadweep area has deepened and now lies as an off-shore trough extending from north 


‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. lies over north Rajasthan and adjoining 

Haryana. 


RAINFALL (from 0830 hours IST of 27 th Aug to 0830 hours IST of 28 th Aug ): Rainfall has 

occurred at most places over west coast, east Rajasthan and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at many 

places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana (including Delhi & 

Chandigarh), Madhya Pradesh, SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, 

Mizoram, Tripura, north Andhra Pradesh, south interior Karnataka, Madhya Maharashtra and 

Gujarat region; at a few places over Punjab, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, 

Vidarbha, Marathawada, Assam & Meghalaya and Lakshadweep and at one or two places over rest 

part of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of 

today are: Alibag16, Ratnagiri and Harnai15 each, Pilani11, Mahabaleshwar10, Mumbai(CLB), 

Bhira and Karnal9 each, Sidhi, Kozhikode, Carnicobar, Agumbe, Shirali and Bharatpur8 each, 

Mumbai(SCZ), Honavar, Karipur, Chittorgarh and Erinpura6 each, Phulbani and Bagdogra5 each 

and Delhi, Jaipur, Udaipur, Indore, Bhopal, Khajuraho, V.V.Nagar, Idar, Kailashahar, Mangalore, 

Panambur, Valparai, N.Lakhimpur, Mayabandar and Banswara4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Punjab, Rajasthan, 

Gujarat, southwest Uttar Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, central & south Bay of Bengal, Andaman 

Sea and east Arabian Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. 

SUB–HIMALAYAN WEST BENGAL & SIKKIM: Buxaduar-15, Champasari-9, Bagdogra 

Iaf-8, Hasimara-7, Nagarkata-6, Neora-4, Sevoke-3, Pundibari (AWS)-3, Alipurduar (CWC)-3, 

Jalpaiguri-3, Chengmari/Diana-3, Darjeeling-2, Falakata-2, Domohani-2, Gangtok (AWS)-2, 

Tadong-2, Bagrakote-1, NH31 Bridge-1, Gangtok-1, Sukiapokhri-1, Mangan-1, GANGETIC 

119

WEST BENGAL: Diamond Harbour-4, Purihansa-3, Kakdwip (AWS)-3, Asansol (CWC)-2, 

Canning (AWS)-2, Kolkata (Dum Dum)-1, Kolkata (AWS)-1, Raidighi (AWS)-1, Durgachack-1, 

Canning-1, Phulberia-1, Kolkata (Alipore)-1, Krishnagar (AWS)-1, D.P.Ghat-1, Sagar Island 

(AWS)-1, ODISHA: Bijepur-9, Ambabhona-9, Rajkishorenagar-9, Rairakhol-8, Ghatagaon-8, 

Deogaon-7, Jhorigam (ARG)-6, K Nuagaon (ARG)-6, Keiri (AWS)-6, Sambalpur-6, Saintala 

(ARG)-5, Parjang (ARG)-5, Banaigarh (AWS)-5, Balimundali-4, Chandanpur-4, Keonjhargarh-4, 

Jaipur-4, Dunguripalli-4, Kashipur (ARG)-4, Sonepur-4, Paikmal-3, Binika-3, Mohana-3, 

Phiringia (ARG)-3, Bangiriposi-3, Telkoi-3, Jharsuguda-3, Hemgiri-3, Kaptipada (ARG)-3, 

Barkote-3, Jhumpura-3, Banarpal (ARG)-3, Niali (ARG)-3, G Udayagiri (AWS)-3, Nawapara-3, 

Dhenkanal-3, Puri-3, Kaniha (ARG)-2, Naraj-2, Hirakud-2, Laikera-2, Chandahandi (ARG)-2, 

Astaranga (ARG)-2, Kotraguda-2, Paradeep-2, Madanpur Rampur-2, Baliguda-2, Betanati 

(ARG)-2, Khairamal-2, Cuttack-2, Anandpur-2, Kuchinda-2, Sundargarh-2, Turekela-2, Tiring-2, 

Nilgiri-2, Loisingha (ARG)-2, Kantapada (ARG)-2, Sukinda-2, Lakhanpur (ARG)-2, Derabis 

(ARG)-2, Pottangi-2, Similiguda (AWS)-2, Burla (ARG)-2, Bargarh-2, Atabira (ARG)-1, Bhuban 

(ARG)-1, Tirtol (ARG)-1, Udala-1, Sinapali (ARG)-1, Jamankira-1, Angul-1, Pallahara-1, 

Bolangir-1, Baripada-1, Gurundia (ARG)-1, Talcher-1, Pipili-1, Mundali-1, Brahmagiri (AWS)-1, 

Tikarpara-1, Altuma CWC-1, Harabhanga-1, Samakhunta (AWS)-1, Daitari-1, Joda (ARG)-1, 

Gaisilet (ARG)-1, Nischintakoili (ARG)-1, Swam-Patna-1, Nawana-1, Sohela-1, Bhadrak 

(AWS)-1, Boudhgarh-1, Athgarh-1, Mahanga (ARG)-1, Kankadahad (ARG)-1, Belaguntha 

(ARG)-1, Ranpur-1, Gopalpur-1, Koraput-1, Bamra (ARG)-1, Rajghat-1, Kashinagar-1, Batli 

(ARG)-1, Jharbandh (ARG)-1, Kirmira (ARG)-1, Raikia (ARG)-1, Tikabali-1, Bissem-Cuttack-1, 

Kamakhyanagar-1, Boden (ARG)-1. 

120



121




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over east Rajasthan, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha 

and coastal & north interior Karnataka and active over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & 

Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, 

Chattisgarh, Telangana, south interior Karnataka and Kerala. It has been subdued over 

Jammu & Kashmir. 

‣ The low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of west 

Bengal and north Orissa has moved inland yesterday evening and now lies over Jharkhand 

and adjoining areas of north Chattisgarh and Orissa. Associated cyclonic circulation 

extends upto mid tropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards with height. 


Narnaul, Agra, Banda, Sidhi, centre of low pressure area (close to Ranchi), Balasore and 

thence southeastwards to north Andaman Sea It extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. 


Lakshadweep area has deepened and now lies as an off-shore trough extending from 

north Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. lies over north Rajasthan 

adjoining Haryana. 

and 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over west coast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at many 

places over Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, 

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Vidarbha, Marathawada, 

Madhya Maharashtra, Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep; at few places 

over Uttarakhand, Assam & Meghalaya, Bihar, Jharkhand, Saurashtra & Kutch and coastal 

Andhra Pradesh and and at one or two places over rest part of the country. The chief amounts 

of rainfall (5 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Vengurla21, Chandrapur18 

Bramhapuri and Panjim15 each, Dabolim14, Maya Bandar13, Karnal12, Majbat, Raipur and 

Shirali11 each, Harnai10, Karwar and Honavar9 each, Udaipur and Siliguri8 each, 

Rohtak, Dholpur, Mahabaleshwar, Ratnagiri, Gulbarga, Agumbe and Mangalore (Bajpe)7 

each, Sambalpur, Bhira and Mangalore (Panambur)6 each and Jaipur, Orai and Kavali5 each. 


Kalpana1cloud imagery shows convective clouds over HP, Punjab, Haryana and adjoining UP, 

South Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, south MP, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, 

Lakshadweep, Bay Islands, Andaman Sea & east central Bay. 

NWP Guidance (IMD_GFS, ECMWF and UKMO): 

At 850mb: IMD-GFS& ECMWF show formation of weak low pressure over Odisha and 

adjoining areas and likely to move towards MP, Gujarat, and Saurashtra Kutch. Whereas UKMO 

didn‟t show any significant movement of low pressure area but a loose trough is present. 

Easterly flow in the Gangetic plains remains fairly strong. Whereas 24 hr forecast shows a 

122

monsoon trough from MP to Haryana. 

Two models (IMD-GFS, ECMWF) show development of trough over northwest BoB with 

possibility of cyclonic circulation by 30 th August. This would be a major development which 

needed to be watched. 

At 200mb: At 200mb Tibetan anti-cyclone is well positioned and there is slight eastward 

movement in 72hr forecast. 

Rainfall: Due to formation of monsoon trough from MP to Haryana rainfall will continue over 

Haryana region during next two days and there will increase in rainfall activity over Gujarat by 

29 th August. 

RS/RW Data: 

8 stations have reported ascent above 100hPa levels. 


Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradients over Arabian Sea has been increased and above normal 

after remaining below normal for past four days whereas over BoB gradients are below normal. 


Ganganagar Narnaul, Agra, Banda, and Sidhi, centre of low pressure area, Balasore and thence 

southeast-wards to north Andaman Sea 

Mascarene High: is located through 32S/72E with central pressure 1025 hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: TAC is located at 30N/89E (east Tibet). 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon TEMBIN has recurved during 

last two days and has further moved eastward and now located near 20.6N/118.2E with intensity 

T3.5/4.0 at 0230UTC/27 th August and it is likely to move northeast-ward and then north-northeastward 

during next 2 days. Another Typhoon BOLAVEN has moved northwest-wards with 

decreased in intensity and now located near 30.5N/125.6E with intensity T4.5/5.0 at 0832 

UTC/27 th August. 

MJO: MJO is in phase 3 with amplitude greater than 1 and during next 3-4 days it is likely to 

remain in phase 3 with amplitude less than 1. 

Important development to be seen during next 3-4days will be formation of a cyclonic circulation 

over northwest BoB by 30 th August as shown in IMD-GFS & ECMWF model forecast. 

Monsoon may remain active over West coast with heavy rainfall belt shifting slightly southward 

from Konkan to Karnataka coast. 

Intensive Observation Period (IOP): NO IOP is declared. 

123




‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Jaisalmer, Kota, 

Guna, Umaria, Ambikapur, and Balasore and thence southeastwards to north Andaman Sea 

It extends upto 3.6 kms a.s.l. 

‣ Cyclonic circulation extending upto 7.6 kms a.s.l. lies over west central and 

Adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, tilting south westwards with height. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over north Rajasthan and adjoining Haryana now lies 

Over south Rajasthan and neighbourhood and extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over east Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood has 

Merged with the monsoon trough. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from north Maharashtra coast to 

Kerala coast persists. 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over west Rajasthan, coastal Karnataka and 

Kerala and active over Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, 

Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa, Marathwada and south interior Karnataka. It has been 

subdued over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar and Jammu & Kashmir. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over West Coast, Madhya Maharashtra, south interior 

Karnataka, SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar 

Islands; at many places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, 

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, north interior Karnataka and 

northeastern states; at a few place over Gujarat state Gangetic West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh 

and at one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (2 cm 

and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Silchar9; Shirali7; Delhi(Sfd)6, Port 

Blair, Mangalore, Hirakud, Siliguri and Orai6 each; Mahabaleshwar, Bhira, Ratlam, 

Cooch Behar, Panambur, Ambala and Carnicobar5 each; Dibrugarh, Ratnagiri, Harnai, Agathi, 

Cannur, Amini Divi, Karwar and Medikeri4 each; Dahanu, Vengurla, Udgir, Delhi(Plm), 

Ajmer, Allapuzha, Nedumbessary, Gulbarga, Goa, Mumbai, Udaipur, Long Islands, Hut bay, 

Jagdalp and Agra3 each; Lumding, Rohtak, Karipur, Tadong, Gangtok, Nagapattinam, 

Vellore, Alibag, Shimla and Malegaon2 each. 


Convective clouds are observed over west Rajasthan adjoining Pakistan, UP, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, 

Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, and east Arabian Sea, off Kerala & Karnataka coasts, BoB (5N- 

7N/90W) and isolated patches over rest parts of country. 

NWP Guidance: 

Analyses of 3 models (IMD-GFS, ECMWF and UKMO) are comparable. Cyclonic circulation 

over Chhattisgarh has weakened on 28 th Aug and on same day a cyclonic circulation had 

developed over NE-Rajasthan which moved southwards today it lies over south Rajasthan. 

124

Another cyclonic circulation has also developed over Odisha. 

48hr forecast based on 27 August: 

ECMWF: it shows formation of cyclonic circulation over south Rajasthan. 

GFS: no such development over Rajasthan. 

UKMO: same as GFS. 

Forecast based on 29 August/0000UTC: 

ECMWF: shows system over south Rajasthan will move southwestward and emerges into north 

Arabian Sea. No development over off Odisha coast. 

GFS: cyclonic circulation over south Rajasthan will move southwestward and it will weaken over 

Gujarat, Saurashtra coast. Another cyclonic circulation will form over south Odisha coast. 

UKMO: it also shows weakening of cyclonic circulation and emerging into north Arabian Sea. A 

trough exists over north Andhra coast. 

At 500mb: no changes were seen except trough movement towards south and formation of ridge 

over NW-India and Pakistan. 

At 200mb: next 3 days Tibetan Anticyclone is shifting southwards and westerlies prevail over 

Tibet. 

Rainfall: rainfall belt will shift southwards and rainfall will decrease over Gangetic plains. 


Pressure Gradient: when Compared to yesterday the gradients over Arabian Sea has been 

decreased however gradient is above normal. Whereas gradients over BoB are decreased and 

below normal. 

Axis of Monsoon Trough: The axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes 

through Jaisalmer, Kota, Guna, Umaria, Ambikapur, Balasore and thence 

southeastwards to north Andaman sea. 

Mascarene High: is located near south Mozambique Channel (33S/50E) with centre of pressure 

1024 hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan Anti-Cyclone is located at 30.5N/91.5E. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon TEMBIN is located at 

28.3N/124.3E with increase in intensity (T3.5/3.5) at 0230UTC/29 th August, at 0830UTC/29 th 

August it was located near 29.3N/124.5E with decrease in intensity (T3.0/3.5) and expected to 

move northeast-wards. Whereas typhoon BOLAVEN had made landfall on 12UTC/28 th August 

(near north Korea). 



125



126

Date: 31 st August 2012 



‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana, coastal 

Karnataka and Kerala and active over Assam & Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal 

& Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Marathwada, 

Vidarbha and coastal Andhra Pradesh. It has been subdued over Gangetic West Bengal, 

Bihar and east Uttar Pradesh. 

‣ The low pressure area over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off south 

Orissa-north Andhra Pradesh coasts has moved inland and now lies over southeast Madhya 

Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha & Chattisgarh. Associated cyclonic circulation extends 

upto mid tropospheric levels, tilting southwestwards with height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Barmer, Mount 

Abu, Shajapur, centre of low pressure area (close to Mandla), Sambalpur, Puri and thence 

southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal It extends upto mid tropospheric levels, tilting 

southwards with height. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from north Maharashtra coast to Kerala coast 

persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Haryana and neighbourhood persists between 2.1 & 4.5 kms 

a.s.l. 


Rainfall occurred at most places over Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Kerala and Andaman 

Nicobar Islands; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh 

Madhya Pradesh, rest northeastern states, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, north 

Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Lakshadweep; at few places over Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat 

state and Gangetic West Bengal and at one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief 

amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Mumbai (CLB), 

Narnaul, Alibag and Ramagundam12 each, Dharamsala10, Gangtok, Tadong and Sagar9 

each, Barabanki, Aurangabad and Mangalore8 each, Passighat, Ratlam, Malegaon, Mangalore 

(Panambur) and Long Islands7 each, Mahuva, Shirali and Valparai6 each, Cherrapunji, 

Jagdalpur Akola, Bhira, Nanded, Vishakhapattanam and Thrissur5 each and North Lakhimpur, 

Koraput, Nizamabad, Karipur, Honavar, Karwar, Kochi, Kozhikode, Agathi, Madikeri, 

Nidambassary, Amini Devi and Port Blair4 each. 


INSAT imageries shows intense convective cloud over Rajasthan, Gujarat, adjoining MP, Konkan 

coast, Lakshadweep, East Arabian Sea, Bay Islands, central Bay, North Andaman Sea and isolated 

convective clouds over Punjab, SouthEast-UP, rest MP, Telangana and Arunachal Pradesh. 

NWP Guidance (Inference from Three Models): 

At 850mb: Analysis of IMD-GFS, ECMWF, and UKMO shows cyclonic circulation over 

Vidarbha and adjoining area. One more cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra Kutch and Arabian 

Sea. In 48, 72 hr forecast all these 3 models are showing formation of cyclonic circulation over 

northwest Bay and adjoining area which is persisting in day 4-5 forecast over Odisha coast as 

127

shown by 3 models. 

At 200mb: Analysis of these three models shows Tibetan Anticyclone lying over southeast of 

Tibet but day 3-4 forecast shows Tibetan Anticyclone lying over Pakistan and Iran. 

Rainfall: In 24 hr forecast all 3 models are showing two bands of rain, one along west coast and 

one along northeast India. In 48 hr forecast slight westward extension of rain band over northeast 

India. In 72-96 hr forecast all three models are showing increase in rainfall activity along Gangetic 

plains and adjoining central India. 


Pressure Gradient: Gradients over Arabian Sea & BoB are increased and are above normal 

Low Pressure Area: The low pressure area over south Chhattisgarh and neighbourhood 

now lies over south east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Chhattisgarh and Vidarbha. The 

Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto midtropospheric levels, tilting south 

westwards with height. 


Jaisalmer, Mount Abu, Hosangabad, centre of low pressure area, Raipur Gopalpur and thence 

south eastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal It extends upto midtropospheric levels 

tilting southwards with height. 

Mascarene High: Mascarene High is located at 30S/63E with central pressure 1023 hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan Anticyclone lying over southeast of Tibet 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: No 


large scale features No IOP is declared. 

128



129

Date: 03 September 2012 



‣ Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining 

coastal areas of West Bengal and Orissa, a low pressure area has formed over west central 

and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north Andhra Pradesh-south Orissa coasts. 


height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Bikaner, Ajmer, 

Guna, Jabalpur, Raipur, Gopalpur, centre of low pressure area and thence southeastwards 

to east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto mid tropospheric levels tilting southwards 

with height. 

‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation between 2.1 & 4.5 kms a.s.l. over Saurashtra & Kutch and 

neighbourhood now lies over Gujarat Region and neighbourhood. 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Marathwada, Vidarbha, coastal Andhra 

Pradesh, Telangana, north interior Karnataka and active over Assam & Meghalaya, west 

Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, Konkan & Goa, coast & south interior 

Karnataka and Kerala. It has been subdued over Jharkhand, Bihar and east Madhya 

Pradesh. 

Rainfall during past 24-hours ending at 0830hours IST of date 

Rainfall has occurred at most places over west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep 

at many places over western Himalayan region, Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, 

Chhattisgarh, Odisha, interior Karnataka and north eastern states; at a few places over Haryana, 

Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, rest Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, west Bengal & Sikkim, south 

Andhra Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands and at one or two places over rest Parts of 

country. The chief amounts of rainfall (5 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today is: 

Ratnagiri14, Agumbe12, Bhira and Mayabandar9 each, Nizamabad, Pantnagar and 

Parbhani8 each, Machilipatnam, Kalingapatnam, Bidar and Nandigama, Mahabaleshwar7 

each, Titlagarh6 and Panambur, Sidhi, Tadong, Ongole, Allahabad, Yeotmal, Tezpur, 

Golaghat and Bhawanipatna5 each. 


INSAT Imagery shows convective clouds lies over Rajasthan, central Gujarat, north Maharashtra, 

Konkan, N-S band of clouds extend from central UP to south MP along central MP, north Andhra 

Pradesh, south Odisha & north eastern states. Isolated clouds exist over rest of India. 

NWP Guidance: (INFERENCE FROM IMD-GFS, ECMWF, UKMO) 

At 850mb: analysis shows intensification of cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay and 

adjoining coast into a low pressure area now which lies over northwest adjoining west central Bay, 

coastal Odisha and north coastal Andhra Pradesh. 24 & 48hr forecast show westward movement of 

cyclonic circulation and lies over south Odisha and adjoining areas. In 72hr forecast all three 

models shows low pressure area over south MP. In 96hr forecast ECMWF shows cyclonic 

circulation over northeast Arabian Sea, whereas in IMD-GFS it is lying over Gujarat and UKMO 

130

shows circulation over Gujarat adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. 

At 200mb: analysis shows TAC is lying over Iran and adjoining areas. In 24 hr forecast TAC lies 

over north Pakistan and adjoining areas. In 48 hr forecast TAC is not well defined. In 72 hr 

forecast TA lies over Tibet. In 96 hr forecast, ECMWF shows TA is over west of Tibet, whereas it 

is to the east of Tibet in IMD-GFS. 

Rainfall: 24 hr forecast shows heavy rainfall along west coast, south Odisha adjoining 

Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh, east Gujarat. In 48hr forecast, ECMWF shows heavy rainfall 

over Gujarat, south Chhattisgarh adjoining Andhra Pradesh, some parts of west coast, whereas 

GFS shows extreme heavy rainfall over Konkan (including Mumbai) , south Odisha and adjoining 

Chhattisgarh, MP rest Maharashtra. UKMO and ECMWF 48hr forecast are more or less same. In 

72hr forecast IMD-GFS model again shows extreme heavy rainfall over north Konkan and heavy 

rainfall over parts of MP and Chhattisgarh, whereas ECMEF & UKMO shows heavy rainfall patch 

over Vidarbha and adjoining areas. Other than this heavy rainfall patch UKMO and ECMWF 

shows rainfall over west coast, Gujarat, Rajasthan and adjoining Pakistan. In 96hr forecast IMD- 

GFS shows heavy rainfall patches over north Konkan, south Gujarat and adjoining Arabian Sea. 

Whereas UKMO & ECMWF shows isolated patches of heavy rainfall over west MP adjoining 

areas and northeast Arabian Sea. 



Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradient over Arabian Sea has decreased, while gradient over Bay of 

Bengal has slightly increased. 


Bikaner, Ajmer, Guna, Raipur, Gopalpur, centre of low pressure area and thence south east 

wards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. 

Mascarene High: located at 34S/82E with central pressure 1031hPa. 

Low Pressure: A low pressure area has formed over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of 

Bengal off Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coast extends upto mid tropospheric level 

tilting southwestwards with height. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone (TAC): TAC lies over Iran 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: no significant system. 

Since 30 th August there is isolated heavy rainfall over UP, Haryana, Rajasthan, even though 

monsoon band has shifted south wards. 

Low pressure system over Northwest BoB enters Odisha and Chhattisgarh by tomorrow and will 

track low pressure across Central India and which would move westward. As a result of which 

rainfall over Central India will enhance. 

Monsoon over west coast & Gujarat is likely to be active. 



follows: 

131


1. Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Konkan 4 th & 5 th September 2012 

2. Vidarbha, MP, Gujarat 5 th September 2012 

3. South Gujarat, Konkan, Madhya 

Maharashtra 

6 th September 2012 




INSAT Satellite Imagery. 03 September 2012. 

132

INFERENCE BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 4 th SEPTEMBER 2012 

‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Orissa, east Rajasthan, Gujarat State, 

Maharashtra & Goa states, Andhra Pradesh, coastal & north interior Karnataka and Kerala 

and active over Gangetic West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh and south 

interior Karnataka. It has been subdued over Nagaland-Manipur-Mizoram- Tripura and 

Bihar. 

‣ The low pressure area over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off north 

Andhra Pradesh-south Orissa coasts has moved inland and now lies as a well marked low 

pressure area over Orissa and adjoining Chattisgarh. Associated cyclonic circulation 

extends upto 7.6 kms a.s.l. tilting southwestwards with height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Jaisalmer, 

Chittorgarh, Bhopal, Mandla, Raipur, centre of low pressure area (close to Titlagarh) and 

thence southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto mid tropospheric 

levels tilting southwards with height. 


‣ The cyclonic circulation over Gujarat Region and neighbourhood persists and now extends 



RAINFALL (from 0830 hours IST of 04 th August to 0830 hours IST of 05 th August): 

Rainfall has occurred at most places over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, 

Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, west coast and interior Karnataka; at many places over Jammu 

& Kashmir, Haryana, east Rajasthan, Madhya Maharashtra, Gangetic West Bengal, Andhra 

Pradesh, Jharkhand and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura; at a few places over 

Uttarakhand, Bihar, Arunachal Pradesh, SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim and at one or 

two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (6 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Contai20, Digha19, Dwarka17, Alibag14, Midnapur 

and Nagpur13 each, Haldia and Amraoti12 each, Rajnandgaon and Bhira11 each, Basirhat, 

Wardha and Diamond Harbour10 each, Canning and Dharamsala9 each, Ratnagiri and 

Malanjkhand8 each, Kolkata, Bulsar, Betul, Surat, Mahabaleshwar and Yeotmal7 each and 

Pachmarhi, Jammu, Okha and Raipur6 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Madhya Pradesh, 

Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, north interior 

Karnataka, North Bay of Bengal and east Arabian sea. Low/ medium clouds are seen over rest 

parts of the country outside Haryana, east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and north Bihar. 

RAINFALL: 

ODISHA: Nawarangpur-21, Kosagumda-14, Patnagarh-13, Kaptipada (ARG)-11, 

Tentulikhunti (ARG)-11, Chandahandi (ARG)-10, Belpada (ARG)-9, Ranpur-9, Narla 

(ARG)-9, Kesinga (ARG)-9, Junagarh-8, Jagannath Prasad (ARG)-7, Jeypore-7, 

Harabhanga-7, Paikmal-7, Bhawanipatna-6, Phulbani-6, Nawapara-6, Gopalpur-6, 

133

Narsinghpur-6, Hindol-6, Raighar (ARG)-6, Balasore-6, Gania (ARG)-5, Loisingha (ARG)-5, 

Bonth-5, Udala-5, Banpur-5, Sinapali (ARG)-5, Kashipur (ARG)-5, Phiringia (ARG)-5, 

Daitari-5, Purushottampur-5, Digapahandi (ARG)-5, Bolagarh (ARG)-5, Baripada-5, Jaipur-4, 

Lanjigarh-4, Banki (ARG)-4, Mahanga (ARG)-4, Jhorigam (ARG)-4, Cuttack-4, Bhuban 

(ARG)-4, Jagatsinghpur (AWS)-4, Jenapur-4, Nilgiri-4, Jaipatna-4, Koraput-4, Odagaon 

(ARG)-4, Binjharpur (ARG)-4, Nh5 Gobindpur-4, Berhampur-4, Padampur-3, Barmul-3, 

Thakurmunda-3, Khariar-3, Jaleswar-3, Samakhunta (AWS)-3, Bhubaneswar (AP)-3, 

Rajghat-3, Nawana-3, Nischintakoili (ARG)-3, Betanati (ARG)-3, Tarva (ARG)-3, 

Nayagarh-3, Saintala (ARG)-3, Bhanjnagar-3, Dharmagarh (ARG)-3, Jamsolaghat-3, Puri-3, 

Baliguda-3, Ghatagaon-3, Turekela-3, Chhatrapur-3, Akhuapada-3, Banarpal (ARG)-3, 

Kantapada (ARG)-3, Khandapara-3, Gaisilet (ARG)-3, Mundali-3, Kakatpur-3, Satyabadi 

(ARG)-3, Mohana-3, Naraj-3, Bolangir-3, Mahendragarh-3, Salepur (ARG)-3, 

Madhabarida-3, Jharbandh (ARG)-3, Malkangiri-3, Dunguripalli-3, Aska-2, Alipingal-2, 

Krishnaprasad-2, Athmalik-2, Dabugan (ARG)-2, Bari (ARG)-2, Belgaon-2, Boudhgarh-2, 

Komna-2, Jujumura (ARG)-2, Paralakhemundi-2, Balimundali-2, Gudari-2, Kalinga-2, 

Chandbali-2, Bhadrak (AWS)-2, Harichandanpur (ARG)-2, Pipili-2, Kantamal-2, Balipatna 

(ARG)-2, Tiring-2, Astaranga (ARG)-2, Tikarpara-2, Daspalla-2, Khairamal-2, Batagaon-2, 

Athgarh-2, Tigiria (ARG)-2, Kamakhyanagar-2, Brahmagiri (AWS)-2, Gunupur-2, Madanpur 

Rampur-2, Pottangi-2, Kotagarh-2, Soro-2, Dhamnagar (ARG)-2, Titlagarh-2, Danagadi 

(ARG)-2, Sukinda-2, Kendrapara-2, Bangiriposi-2, Talcher-1, Parjang (ARG)-1, Korei 

(ARG)-1, Rajkanika-1, Naktideul-1, Binika-1, Dhenkanal-1, Nimpara-1, Raghunathpur 

(ARG)-1, G Udayagiri (AWS)-1, Keonjhargarh-1, Angul-1, Swam Patna-1, Derabis (ARG)-1, 

Kashinagar-1, Remuna (ARG)-1, Bijepur-1, Kankadahad (ARG)-1, Belaguntha (ARG)-1, 

Marsaghai (ARG)-1, Umarkote-1, Altuma (CWC)-1, Rajkishorenagar-1, Balikuda (ARG)-1, 

Tikabali-1, Garadapur (ARG)-1, Raikia (ARG)-1, Joshipur-1, Bhograi-1, Kujanga (ARG)-1, 

Tirtol (ARG)-1, Boden (ARG)-1, Chandanpur-1, Chendipada-1, Deogarh-1, Sorada-1, 

Sohela-1, Basudevpur (AWS)-1, Niali (ARG)-1, Reamal-1, K Nuagaon (ARG)-1, Sonepur-1, 

Jamankira-1. 

CHHATTISGARH: Sukma-10, Kondagaon-7, Narayanpur-6, Kanker-6, Balod-5, 

Deobhog-5, Kawardha-5, Mungeli-4, Jagdalpur-4, Gariabund-4, Ambagarh Chowki-4, 

Dhamtari-4, Bhanupratappur-3, Dondilohara-3, Katghora-3, Konta-3, Dantewara-2, Rajim-2, 

Dongargarh-2, Gandai-2, Bemetara-1, Dongargaon-1, Rajnandgaon-1, Durg-1, 

Mahasamund-1. 

KONKAN & GOA: Palghar-42, Dahanu -36, Talasari-21, Tala-19, Thane-19, Mumbai 

(Santacruz)-19, Khalapur-18, Roha-16, Pen-15, Tbia (PTO)-15, Ulhasnagar-15, Mhasla-15, 

Bhira (PTO)-15, Khed-15, Sangameshwar Devrukh-15, Kalyan-14, Alibag (PTO)-14, 

Murud-14, Mahad-13, Poladpur-13, Chiplun-13, Shahapur-13, Ambernath-13, Sudhagad 

Pali-13, Uran-13, Mangaon-12, Karjat-12, Matheran-12, Bhiwandi-11, Vada-11, Murbad-10, 

Panvel-9, Shriwardhan-9, Dapoli-9, Mumbai (Colaba)-9, Vikramgad-9, Kankavli-7, 

Sawantwadi-7, Mandangad-7, Lanja-7, Sanguem-6, Kudal-6, Panjim -6, Dodamarg-6, 

Jawhar-5, Valpoi-5, Canacona-5, Pernem-5, Margao-5, Mapusa-4, Rajapur-4, Quepem-4, 

Guhagarh-4, Devgad-4, Harnai-4, Vengurla (PTO)-4, Ratnagiri -4, Ponda-3, Dabolim-3, 

Mokheda (FMO)-3, Marmugao (PMO)-2. 

134



135


‣ The southwest monsoon has been vigorous over Gangetic West Bengal, Punjab, Gujarat 

State and Vidarbha and active over Orissa, Jharkhand, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, west 

Madhya Pradesh, Konkan & Goa, Chattisgarh, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. It has been 

subdued over Arunachal Pradesh. 

‣ The well marked low pressure area over Orissa and adjoining Chattisgarh now lies over 

east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 

7.6 kms a.s.l. tilting southwestwards with height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Ahmadabad, Indore, 

centre of well marked low pressure area (close to Mandla), Pendra, Jharsuguda, Balasore 

and thence south eastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto mid tropospheric 

levels, tilting southwards with height. 


‣ The cyclonic circulation over Gujarat Region and neighbourhood persists and now extends 



RAINFALL (from 0830 hours IST of yesterday to 0830 hours IST of today): 

Rainfall has occurred at most places over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gangetic West 

Bengal and Lakshadweep; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, SubHimalayan West Bengal & 

Sikkim, Jharkhand, Odisha, coastal Karnataka and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at a few places 

over northeastern states, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Bihar, Chhattisgarh and interior 

Karnataka and at one or two places over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (5 

cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Contai19, Indore13, Pachmarhi and 

Digha12 each, Ganganagar11, Betul10, Ujjain, Ratlam and Paradip9 each, Basirhat and Ranchi8 

each, Deesa, Dwarka, Diamond Harbour, Amraoti, Midnapore, Haldia and Canning7 each, Gandhi 

Nagar and Bulsar6 each and Bhira, Bankura, Kolkata, Hosangabad and Uluberia5 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Gujarat, west Madhya 

Pradesh, north Madhya Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, north & southeast 

Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and northeast Arabian Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest 

parts of the country outside Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh. 

RAINFALL: 

ODISHA : Balimundali-12, Jaleswar-11, Batagaon-9, Hemgiri-9, Gurundia (ARG)-9, Kaptipada 

(ARG)-9, Bangiriposi-9, Daspalla-9, Belaguntha (ARG)-8, Bhograi-7, Joda (ARG)-7, Niali 

(ARG)-6, Tikarpara-6, Salepur (ARG)-6, Madhabarida-6, Balisankara (ARG)-6, Rajghat-6, 

Kantapada (ARG)-6, Chandanpur-6, Samakhunta (AWS)-5, Jujumura (ARG)-5, Angul-5, 

136

Khairamal-5, Malkangiri-5, Paikmal-5, Basudevpur (AWS)-5, Belpada (ARG)-5, Kosagumda-5, 

Lahunipara-4, Ullunda (ARG)-4, Nimpara-4, Jaipur-4, Lakhanpur (ARG)-4, Kujanga (ARG)-4, 

Khariar-4, Bhuban (ARG)-4, Bari (ARG)-4, Sundargarh-4, Harabhanga-4, Banaigarh (AWS)-4, 

Keonjhargarh-4, Derabis (ARG)-4, Kendrapara-4, Jaipatna-3, Bamra (ARG)-3, Mandira Dam-3, 

Laikera-3, Sohela-3, Rajkanika-3, Gunupur-3, Balipatna (ARG)-3, Keiri (AWS)-3, Alipingal-3, 

Reamal-3, Jamankira-3, Deogarh-3, Kirmira (ARG)-3, Sonepur-3, Chandipur (AWS)-3, 

Ghatagaon-3, Bhawanipatna-3, Balasore-3, NH-5 Gobindpur-3, Bolangir-3, Jamsolaghat-3, 

Nawarangpur-3, Raghunathpur (ARG)-3, Garadapur (ARG)-3, Barkote-3, Thakurmunda-3, 

Daitari-3, Khaprakhol (ARG)-2, Tentulikhunti (ARG)-2, Jhumpura-2, Tihidi (ARG)-2, Mahanga 

(ARG)-2, Jeypore-2, Udala-2, Nilgiri-2, Bhanjnagar-2, Dharmagarh (ARG)-2, Pattamundai-2, 

Hirakud-2, Chandbali-2, Jharsuguda-2, Ambabhona-2, Atabira (ARG)-2, Betanati (ARG)-2, 

Nawapara-2, Binika-2, Burla (ARG)-2, Pipili-2, Rairakhol-2, Baliguda-2, Nayagarh-2, Jharbandh 

(ARG)-2, Jagatsinghpur (AWS)-2, Kolabira (ARG)-2, Koraput-2, Anandpur-2, Soro-2, Barpalli 

(ARG)-2, Binjharpur (ARG)-2, Deogaon-2, Komna-2, Nawana-2, Harichandanpur (ARG)-2, 

Turekela-2, Narsinghpur-2, Madanpur Rampur-2, Gania (ARG)-2, Naktideul-2, Joshipur-2, 

Paradeep-2, Loisingha (ARG)-2, Odagaon (ARG)-2, Baripada-1, Batli (ARG)-1, Bijepur-1, 

Birmaharajpur (ARG)-1, Kalinga-1, Bonth-1, Junagarh-1, Marsaghai (ARG)-1, Bolagarh 

(ARG)-1, Tiring-1, Chandahandi (ARG)-1, Dabugan (ARG)-1, Kakatpur-1, Satyabadi (ARG)-1, 

Bargarh-1, Saintala (ARG)-1, Similiguda (AWS)-1, Dunguripalli-1, Barmul-1, Kuchinda-1, 

Belgaon-1, Sambalpur-1, Rajkishorenagar-1, Boudhgarh-1, Dhenkanal-1, Phiringia (ARG)-1, 

Karanjia-1, Jhorigam (ARG)-1, Muniguda (ARG)-1, Tarva (ARG)-1, Aska-1, Athgarh-1, 

Jagannath Prasad (ARG)-1, Danagadi (ARG)-1, Kotraguda-1, Banpur-1, Rairangpur-1, Raighar 

(ARG)-1, Panposh-1, Bissem-Cuttack-1, Altuma (CWC)-1, Hindol-1, Balikuda (ARG)-1, Jajpur-1, 

Korei (ARG)-1, Kashipur (ARG)-1, Patnagarh-1. 

VIDARBHA: Arvi-21, Chimur-21, Bhamragad-20, Chamorshi-18, Deoli-18, Gadchiroli-15, 

Warud-14, Warora-14, Sindewahi-14, Nagpur (AP)drome-13, Kamptee-13, Chandur Rlwy-13, 

Chikhalda-12, Amraoti-12, Anjangaon-12, Ramtek-11, Saoner-11, Narkheda-11, Hingna-11, 

Etapalli-11, Nandgaonkazi-11, Kurkheda-11, Dhanora-11, Wardha-10, Korchi-10, Tumsar-10, 

Batkuli-10, Umrer-9, Kuhi-9, Armori-9, Samudrapur-9, Perseoni-9, Katol-9, Tiwsa-9, Bhiwapur-9, 

Hinganghat-9, Chandur Bazar-9, Babulgaon-9, Rajura-8, Dhamangaon Rlwy-8, Gondia-8, 

Mulchera-8, Bhadravati-8, Ashti-8, Ralegaon-8, Tirora-8, Mauda-8, Yeotmal-7, Mohadi-7, 

Morsi-7, Pauni-7, Salekasa-7, Paratwada-7, Kharangha-7, Gondpipri-7, Ahiri-7, Darwha-7, 

Saoli-6, Kalmeshwar-6, Kalamb-6, Amgaon-6, Dharni-6, Nagbhir-6, Desaiganj-6, Sakoli-6, 

Selu-6, Mul-6, Wani-6, Akot-5, Pombhurna-5, Goregaon-5, Ner-5, Chandrapur-5, Daryapur-5, 

Bhandara-5, Korpana-5, Ghatanji-5, Maregaon-4, Ballarpur-4, Lakhandur-4, Bramhapuri-4, 

Pandherikawara-4, Joiti-4, Lakhani-4, Sadakarjuni-3, Deori-3, Murtajapur-3, Karanjalad-3, 

Buldana-3, Washim-3, Arni-3, Umerkhed-3, Arjuni Morgaon-3, Zarizamni-3, Patur-2, 

Malegaon-2, Telhara-2, Manora-2, Digras-2, Mahagaon-1, Pusad-1, Sironcha-1, Mangrulpir-1, 

Chikhli-1, Akola-1, Motala-1, Barshitakli-1, Mehkar-1, 

CHHATTISGARH: Bhanupratappur-18, Rajnandgaon-11, Konta-10, Dongargarh-8, Dhamtari-8, 

Kawardha-7, Dongargaon-6, Gandai-6, Narayanpur-6, Raipur-6, Ambagarh Chowki-5, Kanker-5, 

Mahasamund-5, Simga-5, Raipur (Mana AP)-5, Deobhog-4, Sukma-4, Kondagaon-4, 

Gharghoda-3, Balod-3, Mungeli-3, Pali-3, Durg-2, Baloda Bazar-2, Pathalgaon-2, Pallari/Palari-2, 

137

Dantewara-2, Gariabund-2, Rajim-1, Jagdalpur-1, Raigarh-1, Bilaspur-1, Pendra Road-1, 

Sarangarh-1, Saraipali-1, Korba-1. 

KONKAN & GOA: Kalyan-21, Bhiwandi-17, Alibag-14, Roha-14, Ambernath-13, Karjat-13, 

Vada-12, Bhira-11, Murbad-11, Mangaon-11, Tala-10, Thane-10, Khalapur-9, Poladpur-9, 

Sudhagad Pali-9, Mhasla-9, Ratnagiri-8, Murud-8, Pen-8, Mahad-8, Talasari-7, Panvel-6, 

Shahapur-6, Vikramgad-5, Jawhar-5, Uran-4, Shriwardhan-4, Palghar-4, Mumbai(Santacruz)-4, 

Harnai-4, Ponda-4, Mokheda-4, Dahanu-3, Valpoi-3, Dabolim-3, Marmugao-3, Mumbai 

(Colaba)-2, Margao-2, Canacona-2, Panjim-1, Pernem-1, Vengurla-1, Sanguem-1, Mapusa-1. 

GUJARAT REGION: Pardi-23, Chikhli-17, Gandevi-16, Dharampur-15, Valsad (ARG)-14, 

Chikhli (ARG)-12, Gandevi (ARG)-8, Sankheda-8, Pardi (ARG)-8, Jalalpor-8, Surat (AWS)-7, 

Surat City-7, Valsad-7, Khambhat-7, Choryasi-6, Kheda-5, Kalol(G)-5, Anand-5, Gandhinagar-5, 

Vijaynagar-5, Dahegam-5, Karjan-5, Ghandinagar (AWS)-5, Navsari-5, Jhagadia-4, Bavla-4, 

Malpur-4, Matar-4, Umergam-4, V.Vidyanagar-4, Sinor-4, Vagra-3, Tarapur-3, Vansda-3, 

Dediapada-3, Kamrej-3, Kapadvanj-3, Palsana-3, Wanakbori-3, Nanipalson-3, Mansa-3, 

Dhansura-3, Abad City-3, Madhbun-3, Silvassa-3, Bharuch-3, Daman-3, Bardoli-3, Mandal-2, 

Kaprada-2, Idar-2, Bayad-2, Jambuser-2, Idar (AWS)-2, Bodeli-2, Kamrej (ARG)-2, Borsad-2, 

Dantewada (AWS)-2, Dantiwada-2, Dabhoi-2, Naswadi-2, Padra-2, Valod-2, Vapi-2, Arnej 

(AWS)-2, Kadi-2, Modasa-2, Vadodara-2, Waghai (ARG)-2, Jambughoda-2, Himatanagar-2, 

Kaprada (ARG)-2, Sojitra-1, Umreth-1, Jetpur Pavi-1, Talod-1, Dharoi Colony-1, Dhandhuka-1, 

Rajpipala-1, Dhandhuka (ARG)-1, Savli-1, Devgadh Baria-1, Chhota Udepur-1, Amod-1, 

Garbada-1, Vadnagar-1, Olpad-1, Danta-1, Ankleshwer-1, Balasinor-1, Tilakwada-1, Sanand-1, 

Petlad-1, Amirgadh-1, Mahemdavad-1, Mahesana-1, Ghoghamba-1, Godhra-1, Kalol-1, Morva 

Hadaf-1, Prantij-1, Kadana-1, Dholka-1, Limkheda-1, Kathalal-1, Nadiad-1, Radhanpur-1, 

Mahuva-1, Dascroi-1, Quant-1, Waghodia-1, Dhanpur-1, Thasra-1, Satlasana-1. 

SAURASHTRA & KUTCH: Malia-17, Dwarka-17, Khambhalia-16, Keshod-14, Sutrapada-13, 

Dasada-10, Talala-10, Jamnagar-9, Kalavad-8, Mangrol-8, Kodinar-7, Umrala-6, Okha-6, 

Bhanvad-6, Manavadar-5, Ghogha-5, Jamjodhpur-5, Gandhidham-5, Veraval-5, Ranavav 

(AWS)-5, Kutiana-5, Lodhika-4, Ranavav-4, Kalyanpur-4, Lalpur-4, Halvad-4, Manavadar 

(ARG)-4, Dhrol-3, Bhavnagar-3, Jodia-3, Anjar-3, Shihor-3, Kandla Airport-3, Kodinar (AWS)-3, 

Nakhatrana-3, Vanthali-3, Gondal-3, Bhachau-2, Lodhika (ARG)-2, Malia Miana-2, Paddhari-2, 

Mundra-2, Palitana-1, Gariadhar-1, Mendarda-1, Bachau (AWS)-1, Bhuj-1, Chotila-1, Morbi-1, 

Tankara-1, Chotila (ARG)-1, Upleta-1, Limbdi-1, Porbandar-1, Diu-1, Jafrabad-1, Kutiyana 

(ARG)-1. 

WEST MADHYA PRADESH: Bhainsdehi-18, Chicholi-15, Multai-12, Atner-10, Harsud-9, 

Alirajpur-7, Betul-7, Pachmarhi-6, Ujjain-5, Khaknar-5, Garoth-5, Khandwa-5, Gautampura-4, 

Bhikangaon-4, Pandhana-3, Ichhawar-3, Sehore-3, Mahidpur-3, Nepanagar-3, Gandhwani-3, 

Bagli-3, Sarangpur-3, Khargone-2, Khilchipur-2, Jawad-2, Badnawar-2, Shajapur-2, Barwaha-2, 

Tarana-2, Nusrulgunj-2, Sendhwa(Med)-1, Sailana-1, Mandsaur-1, Susner-1, Raisen-1, 

Khachrod-1, Sonkatch-1, Kasarwad-1, Budhni-1, Bhopal-1, Burhanpur-1, Nalchha-1, 

Hoshangbad-1, Maheshwar-1, Shujalpur-1, Ratlam-1, Kannod-1, Rajgarh-1. 

EAST MADHYA PRADESH: Lanji-15, Sausar-11, Malanjkhand-8, Balaghat-7, Katangi-7, 

Chindwara-7, Waraseoni-6, Seoni-4, Lakhnadon-4, Keolari-4, Dindori-3, Bichhia-3, Nainpur-2, 

Amarwara-2, Pushpajgarh-1, Mandla-1, Kaneli-1, Ghansore-1. 

138



139


‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Gangetic West Bengal, west Madhya 

Pradesh and Gujarat State and active over Orissa, Konkan & Goa, Vidarbha and coastal 

Karnataka. It has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. 

‣ The well marked low pressure area over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha now 

lies as a low pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood. Associated 

cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with 

height. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Mount Abu, 

Udaipur, centre of low pressure area (close to Raisen), Jabalpur, Pendra, Jharsuguda, 

Balasore and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto mid 

tropospheric levels passing across the same region. 


‣ The cyclonic circulation over Gujarat Region and neighbourhood now lies over Saurashtra 

& Kutch and neighbourhood and extends upto 7.6 kms a.s.l. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels lies over Tenasserim coast 

and neighbourhood. 


RAINFALL (from 0830 hours IST of 06 th August to 0830 hours IST of 07 th August): Rainfall 

has occurred at most places over Gujarat, west Coast, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar; at 

many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, east Uttar 

Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and Madhya 

Maharashtra; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, 

interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu and at one or two places over rest parts 

of the country outside Telangana where weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of 

rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Portblair18, Mayabandar16, 

Allahabad11, Kandla10, Long Island and Nagpur8 each, Banswara and Kota7 each, Pendra and 

Jammu6 each, Waltair, Carnicobar, Hut Bay, Mahabaleshwar, Amraoti and Bilaspur5 each and 

Salem, Indore, Agathi and Malanjkhand4 each. 


Cloud imagery at 0830 hours IST shows convective clouds over parts of Gujarat region, Southeast 

Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, north coastal Tamilnadu, Bay of Bengal, 

Andaman Sea and northeast Arabian Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the 

country. 

RAINFALL: 

GUJARAT REGION: Morva Hadaf-21, Kadana-14, Jhalod-12, Bayad-11, Modasa-11, Dahod-11, 

Limkheda-11, Chikhli (ARG)-11, Dahod (AWS)-11, Pardi-10, Prantij-9, Chikhli-9, Vijapur-8, Valod-8, 

Vyara-8, Choryasi-8, Siddhpur-7, Palsana-7, Deesa-7, Gandevi (ARG)-7, Dharampur-6, Valsad-6, 

Palanpur-6, Uchchhal-6, Gandhinagar-6, Dantewada (AWS)-6, Gandevi-6, Vapi-6, Dahegam-6, 

140

Kankrej-5, Talod-5, Ghandinagar (AWS)-5, Kaprada-5, Kalol-5, Satlasana-5, Kaprada (ARG)-5, Pardi 

(ARG)-5, Fatepura-5, Wanakbori-5, Bardoli-5, Valsad (ARG)-5, Himatanagar-5, Santrampur-5, 

Kamrej-5, Bhabhar-5, Kapadvanj-5, Lunawada-5, Olpad-5, Olpad (ARG)-5, Madhbun-4, Bhiloda-4, 

Garbada-4, Virpur-4, Waghai (ARG)-4, Vansda-4, Dantiwada-4, Ghoghamba-4, Malpur-4, Kamrej 

(ARG)-4, Meghraj-4, Vyara (AWS)-4, Silvassa-4, Dharoi Colony-3, Devgadh Baria-3, Chanasma-3, 

Khedbrahma-3, Surat (AWS)-3, Songadh-3, Surat City-3, Nanipalson-3, Shahera-3, Kheralu-3, Ukai-3, 

Mansa-3, Umergam-3, Abad City-3, Danta-3, Ahwa (AWS)-3, Dangs (Ahwa)-3, Jalalpor-3, Navsari-3, 

Mahuva-3, Idar-3, Sanand-3, Jetpur Pavi-3, Kadi-3, Unjha-3, Bodeli-3, Daman-2, Bavla-2, Dhanpur-2, 

Balasinor-2, Godhra-2, Khanpur-2, Idar (AWS)-2, Mandvi-2, Patan-2, Dascroi-2, Vadali-2, Jhagadia-2, 

Halol-2, Jambughoda-2, Tharad-2, Vadgam-2, Kheda-2, Mandal-2, Viramgam-2, Santalpur-2, 

Dhanera-2, Mahudha-2, Nandod-2, Mahesana-1, Dhansura-1, Vadnagar-1, Harij-1, Chhota Udepur-1, 

Becharaji-1, Sinor-1, Ankleshwer-1, Mahemdavad-1, Thasra-1, Sagbara-1, Sojitra-1, Hansot-1, 

Visnagar-1, Radhanpur-1, Bharuch-1, Detroj-1, Quant-1, Sankheda-1, Vadodara-1, Nizer-1, Savli-1, 

Bilodara (AWS)-1, Kathalal-1, Dediapada-1, Dholka-1, Vadodara (AWS)-1, Rajpipala-1, 

SAURASHTRA & KUTCH: Junagadh-8, Dwarka-7, Khambhalia-6, Dhrol-6, Visavadar-6, Bhesan-6, 

Dhrangadhra-6, Upleta-5, Vadia-4, Kotdasangani-4, Kutiana-4, Jamjodhpur-4, Dhoraji-3, Rajkot-3, 

Dhoraji (ARG)-3, Wadhvan-3, Halvad-3, Jetpur-3, Sayla-3, Bhanvad-3, Rapar-2, Lalpur-2, Mendarda-2, 

Palitana-2, Gondal-2, Jafrabad-2, Lakhtar-2, Jafrabad (ARG)-2, Keshod-2, Bhachau-2, Kutiyana 

(ARG)-2, Jodia-1, Kalyanpur-1, Surendranagar-1, Botad-1, Bachau (AWS)-1, Lodhika-1, Lodhika 

(ARG)-1, Wankaner-1, Surendranagar (AWS)-1, Abdasa-1, Dayapar (AWS)-1, Ranavav-1, Tankara-1, 

Dasada-1, Talaja-1, Paddhari-1. 

KONKAN & GOA: Ulhasnagar-17, Jawhar-8, Murud-6, Mokheda-5, Talasari-5, Poladpur-5, Mahad-5, 

Mandangad-5, Mhasla-5, Bhira-5, Khed-4, Roha-4, Sudhagad Pali-4, Mangaon-4, Chiplun-4, Rajapur-4, 

Guhagarh-4, Dahanu-4, Dodamarg-3, Pernem-3, Sangameshwar Devrukh-3, Tala-3, Dapoli-3, 

Ratnagiri-3, Ambernath-3, Kankavli-3, Bhiwandi-3, Shahapur-2, Karjat-2, Murbad-2, Lanja-2, Pen-2, 

Kudal-2, Tbia-2, Mapusa-2, Vikramgad-2, Shriwardhan-2, Devgad-2, Valpoi-2, Khalapur-2, Mumbai 

(Santacruz)-2, Harnai-1, Matheran-1, Alibag-1, Ponda-1, Kalyan-1, Panvel-1, Thane-1, Palghar-1, 

Vada-1, Sawantwadi-1. 

MADHYA MAHARASHTRA: Mahabaleshwar-7, Harsul-7, Gaganbawada-6, Ozharkheda-5, 

Dindori-5, Raver-5, Yaval-4, Peint-4, Surgana-4, Velhe-4, Chopda-3, Igatpuri-3, Patan-3, Navapur-3, 

Chandgad-3, Niphad-3, Bodwad-2, Chandwad-2, Ajra-2, Muktainagar / Edalabad-2, Jalgaon-2, 

Panhala-2, Nashik-2, Shirpur-2, Yeola-2, Paud Mulshi-2, Dhadgaon/Akrani-1, Erandol-1, Amalner-1, 

Sindkheda-1, Shahuwadi-1, Shahada-1, Vadgaon Maval-1, Dahigaon-1, Kalvan-1, Gidhade-1, Jamner-1, 

Girnadam-1, Parola-1, Taloda-1, Bhor-1, Kopargaon-1, Kagal-1, Kolhapur/Karvir-1, Malegaon Camp-1, 

Pune City-1. 

141



142

Date: 07 th September 2012 



‣ The low pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood now lies over 

southeast Rajasthan and neighbourhood. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto mid 

tropospheric levels. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Bhuj, centre of low 

pressure area (close to Chittorgarh), Damoh, Umaria, Ambikapur, Chaibasa, Digha and 

thence southeastwards to north Andaman Sea. It extends upto mid tropospheric levels, 

passing across the same region. 


‣ The cyclonic circulation over Tenasserim coast and neighbourhood now lies over Gulf of 

Martaban and adjoining north Andaman Sea and extends upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. 

‣ A trough in mid & upper tropospheric westerlies with its axis at 5.8 kms a.s.l runs roughly 

along 64° E to the north of Lat. 30° N. System would move eastnortheastwards. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood merged with the 

cyclonic circulation associated with the low pressure area yesterday evening. 


The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Vidarbha and active over Gangetic West Bengal, 

Jharkhand, east Rajasthan, west Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat State, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. It 

has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam & Meghalaya, west Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. 

Rainfall has occurred at most places over Gujarat, west Coast, Lakshadweep and Andaman & 

Nicobar; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, 

east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal and 

Madhya Maharashtra; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Sub Himalayan West Bengal & 

Sikkim, interior Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamilnadu and at one or two places over 

rest parts of the country outside Telangana where weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts 

of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Portblair18, Mayabandar16, 

Allahabad11, Kandla10, Long Island and Nagpur8 each, Banswara and Kota7 each, Pendra and 

Jammu6 each, Waltair, Carnicobar, Hutbay, Mahabaleshwar, Amraoti and Bilaspur5 each and 

Salem, Indore, Agathi and Malanjkhand4 each. 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Gulf of Kutch, northeast 

Arabian Sea, southwest UP, north MP, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, 

Tamilnadu, Tripura adjoining Mizoram, Andaman & Nicobar Island and BoB south of lat 17.0N, 

Andaman Sea, Gulf of Martaban, south Arakan Coast adjoining Myanmar and Tenassarim coast. 


Extremely heavy rainfall was reported on 0300UTc of 4 th September 2012 over north of Konkan 

(Dahanu-36cm) and adjoining Gujarat (Bulsar-33cm). 

Based on 3 rd Sep initial condition, IMD-GFS model 48hrs forecast (valid on 00UTC of 5 th ) 

rainfall over north Konkan was extremely heavy, this forecast went wrong as extremely heavy 

143

ainfall occurs on 3 rd Sep (reported on 0300UTC of 4 th Sep) over north of Mumbai and adjoining 

Gujarat viz. Dahanu and Bulsar rather than on 3 rd and 4 th Sep. IMD-GFS model 72hrs forecast 

(valid on 00UTC of 6 th ) was also showing extremely heavy rainfall over north Mumbai and 

adjoining area which did not occurred in actual observation. 

ECMWF model (48hrs forecast based 0000UTC/ 3 rd Sep) was also showing very heavy rainfall 

over interior Gujarat (central near 22.5N/72.0E) which is displaced about 200km from Dahanu. 

Similarly very heavy rainfall was observed over south Gangetic West Bengal (Contai20, 

Digha19,) on 4 th Sep (reported on 0300UTC of 5 th Sep). This event was also not picked by any of 

the model (GFS, ECMWF & UKMO). 

Another cyclonic circulation is emerging from Gulf of Martaban adjoining north Andaman Sea. 

ECMWF is showing fast movement of the circulation while GFS is showing very slow movement. 

In 24hr forecast two model differ by about 2degree with respect to centre of the circulation 

whereas it about 4degree in 48hr forecast. UKMO is in between these two models. 

500-mb & 200mb (GFS & ECMWF) circulation shows organised easterlies over central India and 

Gangetic Plains. At 500mb a marked shear line is seen from north Arabian Sea adjoining Gujarat 

to central India suggesting favourable monsoon conditions. 



Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradient over Bay of Bengal (BoB) are far below the normal values 

(of the order of 2mb) whereas it is much above (around 6.5mb) the normal values over Arabian. 

Mascarene High: located at 32.5S/43.0E with central pressure 1036hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone (TAC): TAC lies over central Tibet (30.5N/86.E). 


Low pressure area, which was over Odisha coast passed through Chhattisgarh, MP adjoining 

Maharashtra and now over southeast Rajasthan adjoining area. This system organised large scale 

convection over central India. However, heavy rainfall event over south Gangetic West Bengal 

could not be associated with any of the circulation. 

There is weak trough over Pakistan and moisture from Saurashtra & Kutch is being feed into 

Pakistan adjoining India. 

Moored buoy shows abrupt fall in SST over north BoB but very little gradient in rest of the Bay. 

In spite of dense clouding between 15-19N over central & adjoining India heaviest rain has 

occurred only north of Mumbai whereas IMD-GFS model had predicted extremely heavy rainfall 

over Mumbai. 

Two rainfall spells on 3 rd over north Konkan adjoining Gujarat & 5 th over south Gangetic West 

Bengal have changed the complex of seasonal rainfall. 

Next 3-4 days rainfall is likely to continue and if circulation over BoB crosses Odisha coast than 

monsoon will be fairly strong by 15-16 th September. 



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145




‣ The low pressure area over Kutch and adjoining south Pakistan now lies over southeast 

Pakistan and adjoining southwest Rajasthan. Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto 

mid tropospheric levels. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Jaisalmer, Sawai 

Madhopur, Tikamgarh, Umaria, Champa, Angul, Chandbali and thence southeastwards to 

east central Bay of Bengal. It extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. passing across the same region. 


‣ The cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Orissa-West 

Bengal coasts now lies over Orissa and neighbourhood and extends upto mid tropospheric 

levels, tilting southwestwards with height. 


The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Saurashtra & Kutch, Vidarbha, Telangana and 

Kerala and active over Assam & Meghalaya, Orissa, Gujarat Region, Konkan & Goa and coastal 

Karnataka. It has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana and Rayalaseema. 

Rainfall has occurred at most places over Gujarat state, west coast, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, 

Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh; at many places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya 

Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Jharkhand, northeastern states, north Andhra Pradesh, 

Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Island; at a few places over Punjab, east Uttar Pradesh, 

Bihar, interior Karnataka and Tamilnadu and at one or two places over rest parts of the country 

outside Haryana, west Uttar Pradesh and Rayalaseema where weather remained mainly dry. The 

chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Naliya13, 

Portblair12, Cannur11, Diu10, Nagapattinam and Dahanu7 each, Puri and north Lakhimpur6 each, 

Mahuva, Dibrugarh, Mahabaleshwar, Kakinada, Narsapur and Kochi5 each, Majbat, Shimla, 

Sambalpur, Okha, Harnai, Koraput, Silchar and Bilaspur4 each. 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over south UP, MP adjoining Rajasthan, southeast 

Pakistan, south Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha, north Chhattisgarh, Gangetic West Bengal, Andhra 

Pradesh, Karnataka, Assam Nagaland, Tripura, Mizoram, Andaman & Nicobar Island, BoB 

between lat 9.0N to 20.0N and north Andaman Sea. 


IMD-GFS: 

850mb: analysis shows cyclonic circulation over north Odisha and neighbourhood and another 

circulation over southeast Pakistan and adjoining Saurashtra Kutch. 24 hr forecast shows that 

cyclonic circulation over Odisha strengthening and move towards south Chhattisgarh adjoining 

Vidarbha whereas circulation over southwest Pakistan moved slightly westward and now lies over 

south Pakistan adjoining Makarran coast. 48 hr forecast indicates cyclonic circulation over south 

MP adjoining Vidarbha and another feeble circulation over northeast Arabian Sea (AS) and 

neighbourhood. Day 3 forecast (72hr valid for 13 th Sep) shows merging of two cyclonic circulation 

146

over north Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan. 

At 200mb: 24 and 48 hr forecast shows Tibetan Anticyclone (TA) is moving towards south Tibet 

adjoining Nepal and in 72hr forecast it is shifting towards south Pakistan. 

The core of Tropical easterly jet (TEJ) at 100mb analysis is centered near Chennai latitude. Day1- 

day 3 forecast indicates slight northwestward shifting of the core. 

Rainfall: 24 hr Rainfall forecast shows heavy rainfall over south Chhattisgarh, Telangana, 

Vidarbha, Gujarat region and very heavy rainfall over south Pakistan. 48 hr forecast shows heavy 

rainfall patches over Telangana, north Maharashtra and adjoining MP. Day 3 forecast (valid for 

13 th Sep) show heavy rainfall patches over Gujarat and neighbourhood and Assam, adjoining 

northeast state. 

ECMWF: 

850hpa: analysis shows cyclonic circulation over north Odisha and neighbourhood and another 

circulation over southeast Pakistan adjoining Saurashtra and Kutch. 24 hr forecast shows that 

cyclonic circulation over Odisha will move towards east MP and there will be a very slight 

westward movement in the circulation over southeast Pakistan. 48 hr forecast indicates a feeble 

circulation over north MP whereas circulation over southeast Pakistan further shift southwestward 

and now lies over northeast AS and Saurashtra Kutch. Day-3 forecast circulation over north MP 

disappears whereas cyclonic circulation over northeast AS and neighbourhood persist. 

At 200mb analysis and forecast is more or less same as in IMD-GFS. 

Rainfall: 24 hr rainfall forecast shows heavy rainfall over Gujarat region and very heavy rainfall 

patches over southeast Pakistan. 48hr rainfall shows rainfall belt over MP, east Rajasthan and 

northeast state. In 72hr forecast, heavy rainfall belt is seen over northeastern state and moderate 

rainfall over Gangetic plains which are further increasing in 96/124 hr forecast. 

UKMO: 

At 850hPa, upto 48 hr forecast model is showing similar movement of both the cyclonic 

circulation as shown by ECMWF. In 72 hr forecast model is showing further northward movement 

of cyclonic circulation reaching upto east UP adjoining MP and another cyclonic circulation 

persisting over northeast AS adjoining Gujarat. In 96hr forecast there are only feeble cyclonic 

circulation over Bihar and another over northeast AS and the adjoining Gujarat. 

Rainfall: In day-1 forecast moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over north AP, south 

Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Saurashtra Kutch and southeast Pakistan. In day 2 forecast rainfall patches 

are seen over MP adjoining Maharashtra, northeast states and northeast Arabian Sea. Rainfall is 

increasing in northeast and adjoining areas in day3 and day 4 forecasts. 



Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradient over Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea are same 

(around 6.0mb). 

Mascarene High: located at 33S/62.5E with central pressure 1030hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone (TAC): TAC lies over southeast Tibet (30N/90E). 

147


Under the influence of the two cyclonic circulations (one over Odisha adjoining area and another 

over southeast Pakistan adjoining Rajasthan) rainfall over whole India was above normal and 

during next 3-4 days rainfall is likely to continue mainly over central India as the cyclonic 

circulations over Odisha will move westward/north-westward. 


Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and large scale features no IOP is 

declared. 



148




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, 

east Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat Region, and Kerala and active over Assam & Meghalaya, 

Gangetic West Bengal, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Saurashtra & 

Kutch and south interior Karnataka. It has been subdued over Marathwada and Vidarbha. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Ferozepur, Karnal, 

Shahjahanpur, Lucknow, Patna, Dumka, Shantiniketan, Kolkata and thence southeastwards 

to north Andaman Sea. 

‣ The feeble off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to Karnataka 

coast now extends from south Maharashtra coast to Lakshadweep area. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood persists and now extends upto 

3.1 kms a.s.l. with a trough aloft upto 5.8 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over southeast Pakistan and adjoining areas of Kutch persists and 

now extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The east-west shear zone along Lat. 25° N has become less marked 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal 

& Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at many places over Jammu & 

Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, west coast, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and 

Lakshadweep; at a few places over Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Maharashtra and north coastal 

Andhra Pradesh and at one or two places over rest parts of the country outside Marathawada 

weather remained mainly dry. The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 

hours IST of today are: Mayabandar21, Darjeeling17, Cherrapunji15, Lucknow14, 

Kalimpong12, Bankura11, Purnea, Fursatgunj and Alapuzha8 each, Long Island, Bagdogra, 

Balurghat, Allahabad, Goalpara and Panagarh7 each, Karnal6, Jalpaiguri and Ranchi5 each 

and Moradabad, Khandwa, Varanasi, Bareilly, Surendranagar, Bangalore, Sultanpur, 

Portblair, Dehradun and Manali4 each. 


Satellite image shows convective clouds over UP, adjoining Haryana, Uttarakhand, north MP, 

Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, GWB, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, 

Tripura, Manipur, Bangladesh, Central Bay. 


At 850mb: Analysis of IMD- GFS, ECMWF shows cyclonic circulation over GWB whereas 

UKMO shows cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand which is in well agreement with actual 

observation. In 24 hr forecast all these three model shows cyclonic circulation over east UP and 

adjoining Bihar which is persisting up to 48hr. In 72hr forecast ECMWF, UKMO shows cyclonic 

circulation over west UP whereas GFS shows north Chhattisgarh. ECMWF also shows 

development of feeble cyclonic circulation over north coastal Odisha. 96 hr forecast GFS shows 

northward shift of cyclonic circulation and lies over southwest Bihar. ECMWF shows cyclonic 

circulation over west UP is further moving north-westward and lies over northwest UP and also 

149

shows another feeble cyclonic circulation over coastal Odisha. UKMO shows cyclonic circulation 

over west UP will disappear and a fresh cyclonic circulation will develop over northwest Bay and 

adjoining area. 

At 200mb: Tibetan Anticyclone shows southward shift and ridgeline lies along 28-29N and 

forecast shows southward shift till 18 th September and thereafter it will again move northeastward 

towards southeast Tibet. 



Pressure Gradient: Gradients over Arabian Sea (4.6mb) and Bay of Bengal (7.3mb) has 

increased and are above normal. 


Ferozpur, Karnal, Shahjahanpur, Lucknow, Patna, Dumka, Shantiniketan and thence south south 

eastwards to north Andaman Sea. 

Mascarene High (30°S, 50°E.1025 hPa): Mascarene high is located southeast of Madagascar 

(37S/64E) with central pressure 1033hPa. 

Systems over South China Sea/ Pacific Ocean: Typhoon SANBA has further intensified 

(T7.0/7.0) and located near 18.5N/129.7E at 0232 UTC of 14 th Sep and expected to move 

northwards. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: TAC is now located at 28N/80.5E (northeast UP) 

The Position of trough line is north of its normal position. Models indicate fluctuation of monsoon 

trough at central and eastern end (i.e. Jharkhand, east UP, and adjoining Bihar) whereas western 

end is close to foothills. So rainfall will continue over foothill of western Himalayan region and 

east & northeast India during next 3-4 days whereas rainfall will keep on decreasing over western, 

central and interior peninsular region. 


Considering the current observations, NWP guidance and large scale features no IOP is declared. 

150



151




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Bihar, Uttarakhand and Punjab and active 

over Assam & Meghalaya, Nagaland-Manipur Mizoram-Tripura, Sub-Himalayan West 

Bengal & Sikkim, Orissa and east Madhya Pradesh. It has been subdued over Marathwada, 

Telangana, Rayalaseema and north interior Karnataka. 

‣ The axis of the monsoon trough at mean sea level now passes through Ganganagar, Hissar, 

Lucknow, Varanasi, Ranchi, Chandbali and thence southeastwards to east central Bay of 


‣ The off-shore trough at mean sea level from south Maharashtra coast to north Kerala coast 

persists. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood now lies over east Uttar 

Pradesh and neighbourhood and extends upto 2.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation extending upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and 

adjoining coastal areas of Orissa. 

‣ A trough in the mid & upper tropospheric westerlies runs with it axis at 7.6 kms a.s.l. 

roughly along Long. 64° E, to the north of Lat. 30° N. System would move eastnortheast 

wards. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, west 

coast, northeastern states and Andaman & Nicobar Islands; at many places over Uttarakhand, 

Punjab, east Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, & Sikkim, Odisha and 

Chhattisgarh; at a few places over Haryana, interior Karnataka and Lakshadweep and at one or two 

places over rest parts of the country outside west Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch, 

interior Maharashtra, Rayalaseema and north Tamilnadu. The chief amounts of rainfall 

(4 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Najibabad19, Majbat16, 

Gorakhpur13, Purnea, Mukteshwar, Patna, HutBay10 each, Maya Bandar and Ballia9 

each, Sidhi and Long Island8 each, Satna, Paradeep, Bharatpur and Siliguri7 each, Katra and 

Coochbehar6 each, Cherrapunji, Dhubri and Nancowry5 each and Rewa and Barabanki4 each. 


Water vapour imagery shows dry air penetrating behind the westerly trough over Pakistan. 

Convective clouds are seen over J & K, east UP, Nepal adjoining Tibet, Bihar, south Chhattisgarh 

adjoining Odisha, GWB and West Bengal, Andaman Islands and southeast parts of southeast Bay. 

NWP Guidance: (Inference from IMD-GFS, ECMWF, UKMO) 

At 850mb: Cyclonic circulation lying over east UP moves to west UP by 18 th September, 

thereafter it will weaken. Westerly to northwesterly flow will establish over Gangetic plains by 

19 th September indicating possibility of withdrawal and northwest monsoon to begin. 

At 500mb: At 500mb & 300mb large amplitude westerly trough is lying at 70E which should 

move Indo-Pakistan by 19 th September. Monsoon shear zone at 500mb is shifting to 12N. 

Rainfall: 24hr Rainfall forecast shows much less rain over India even over Gangetic plains from 

18 th onwards. Rain has shifted to foothills of UP, Bihar and Himachal Pradesh in 48hr forecast. 

152

UKMO shows heavy rainfall belt over Himachal Pradesh and western UP hills in 24hr forecast. It 

is reduced considerably in 48hr forecast. Charts indicate rapid drying over western India and UP in 

72hr forecast. Consensus is monsoon withdrawal may begin from 20 th or 21 st September. 


Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradients over Arabian Sea (4.0mb) and Bay of Bengal (4.3mb) are 

above normal. 


Anupgarh, Narnaul, Gwalior, Sidhi, Ambikapur, Angul, Puri and thence south eastwards to east 

central Bay of Bengal. 

Mascarene High: Mascarene high is located at 36S/55E (east of South Mozambique Channel) 

with central pressure 1039hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Not well defined. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon SANBA had made landfall over 

South Korea at 0232 UTC of today. 



153



154




‣ The southwest Monsoon has been vigorous over Assam & Meghalaya and active over 

coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. It has been subdued over Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, 

Uttarakhand, Haryana, Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir, Karnataka State and Kerala. 

‣ Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of southwest Monsoon from the 

extreme western parts of the country around24 th September 2012. 

‣ The north-south trough in the lower level westerlies now runs from eastern parts of Bihar 

to north Tamil Nadu coast across Orissa and coastal Andhra Pradesh and extends upto 3.1 

kms a.s.l. 

‣ The embedded cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood now lies over 

Orissa and neighbourhood and extends upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. 

‣ The cyclonic circulation over east central Arabian Sea and adjoining Maharashtra- 

Karnataka coasts persists and now lies between 3.1 & 4.5 kms a.s.l. 


Rainfall has occurred at most places over SubHimalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Assam & 

Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Andaman & Nicobar islands; at a many places over interior 

Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Marathawada and Vidarbha and at one or two 

places over rest parts of the country outside Punjab, Haryana, west Rajasthan, Karnataka, Kerala 

and Lakshadweep where weather remained mainly dry The chief amounts of rainfall (4 cm and 

above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Passighat21, Dhubri11, Dibrugarh, Tinsukhia 

and Angul7 each, Koraput6, Cherrapunji, Titlagarh5 each, Paradip, Hut Bay and Majbat and 

Goalpara4 each 


INSAT imagery shows Cloud cluster lies over southeast of Arabian Sea and convective clouds 

over East MP, Chhattisgarh, central Odisha, northeast Maharashtra, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, 

southwest Bihar and adjoining Jharkhand, Andaman & Nicobar Islands, partly cloudy over 

Telangana, central Karnataka, and central Maharashtra. 


Analysis shows conditions have become favourable for with drawl of monsoon. General northwesterly 

flow released from Punjab towards Bihar. A trough line at 850mb lies from West Bengal 

to Odisha coast. Cross equatorial flow over Arabian Sea has weakened. Over BoB monsoon 

westerlies are fairly strong up to 20-25 kts. Monsoon trough extends from Odisha coast to 

Thailand and Philippines. Pressure Gradients over west coast do not exist now. Forecast shows the 

tropical cyclone intensifies and becomes Typhoon in 96hr forecast and likely to move northwest 

wards. 

Rainfall: Rainfall persists over northeast India for next 3-4days and moderate rainfall over central 

India. 


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Pressure Gradient: Pressure gradients over Arabian Sea (1.0mb) and Bay of Bengal (4.0mb) has 

decreased 

Mascarene High (30°S, 50°E.1025 hPa): Mascarene high is located at 29.5S/74.5E (Far East of 

Madagascar) with central pressure 1027hPa. 

Systems over South China Sea/ Pacific Ocean: Tropical Cyclone JELAWAT originated over 

west Pacific near 13.5N/131.0E with intensity T2.5/2.5 at 2032 UTC of yesterday. Today it was 

lying at 12.9N/130.7E with intensity T2.5/2.5 at 0232 UTC. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan Anti Cyclone is located at 24N/92E. 



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‣ The southwest Monsoon has been subdued over Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, 

Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil 

Nadu, Karnataka State and Kerala. 

‣ The Southwest Monson has withdrawn from some parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, 

Haryana, West Rajasthan, Saurashtra & Kutch and north Arabian Sea. The withdrawal line 

passes through Jammu, Ludhiana, Hissar, Jodhpur, Naliya, Lat. 23° N/Long. 65° E and Lat. 

23° N / Long. 60°E. Also, conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest 

Monsoon from remaining parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, 

entire Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and west Uttar Pradesh, some parts of west Madhya 

Pradesh and some more parts of Gujarat State and north Arabian Sea during next 2 to 3 

days. 

‣ The north-south trough in the westerlies now runs from Assam & Meghalaya to southwest 

Bay of Bengal across northwest and west central Bay of Bengal and extends upto 2.1 kms 

a.s.l. 

‣ The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto 4.5 kms a.s.l. 

over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu & Kashmir now lies over northern parts of 

Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood. System would move eastnortheastwards. 


Rainfall has occurred at manyplaces over northeastern states and Andaman & Nicobar Islandsat a f 

ew places over Gujarat region west Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Odisha and north coastal Andhra 

Pradesh and at one or two places over Himachal Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal & 

Sikkim, Tamilnadu and Kerala. Weather Remained mainly dry over rest parts of the country. The 

chief amounts of rainfall (1 cm and above) recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Passighat10; 

Cherrapunji, Dahanu and Kolkata9 each, Tuni, Haldia and Maya Bandar5; Wasim and 

Tezpur3 each and Port Blair, Bhubaneshwar, Hut Bay, north Lakhimpur, Imphal, Itanagar and 

Jorhat2each 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds over southwest Madhya Pradesh, east Maharashtra, 

Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh & adjoining Bay, North Bay of Bengal. 


At 850mb: ECMWF & UKMO show formation of low pressure area possibly a depression over 

Bay of Bengal on 27 th September, whereas GFS shows system is going to weaken on 27 th 

September. 

At 500mb: Westerly trough over J & K on 24 th is showing more or less persistent in same area. No 

other marked system affecting India. 


Pressure Gradient: pressure gradients over Arabian Sea are 0.7mb and over Bay of Bengal it is 

3.5mb. 

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Mascarene High: Mascarene high is located at 31S/74.5E (east of Madagascar) with central 

pressure 1027hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan Anticyclone is located at 24.5N/107E 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon JELAWAT is located at 

14.5N/128.1E with intensity T6.6/6.5 

Monsoon is going to withdraw from northwest India and rain over northeast India also becoming 

less. All three models more or less agree in this respect. Over west Pacific super Typhoon lying in 

east of Philippines moving northwest-wards very slowly. Monsoon trough over South China Sea 

and adjoining region is fairly strong. 



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‣ The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood became a well 

marked low pressure area over the same region yesterday evening. It persists there today. 

Associated cyclonic circulation extends upto mid tropospheric levels. 

‣ A cyclonic circulation lies between 3.1 & 5.8 kms a.s.l. over east central Arabian Sea off 

south Maharashtra coast. 

‣ The western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation over north Pakistan and 

adjoining Jammu & Kashmir is moving away northeastwards. 

‣ The withdrawal line continues to pass through Lat. 29° N /Long. 81° E, Kheri, Kanpur, 

Guna, Ratlam, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Porbandar, Lat. 21° N / Long. 67° E and Lat. 21° N / 

Long. 60°E. 


The southwest monsoon has been active over Tamil Nadu and south interior Karnataka. It 

has been subdued over Arunachal Pradesh, West Bengal & Sikkim, Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar 

Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat Region, Marathwada, Chattisgarh and Kerala. Rainfall has 

occurred at many places over Rayalaseema, interior Karnataka, Tamilnadu and Andaman & 

Nicobar Island; at a few places over northeastern states, coastal Odisha, north coastal Andhra 

Pradesh and south Madhya Maharashtra and at one or two places over Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, 

Gangetic West Bengal, Marathawada, north Madhya Maharashtra and west coast. Weather 

remained mainly dry over rest parts of the country. The chief amounts of rainfall (2 cm and above) 

recorded at 0830 hours IST of today are: Bhuj8, Shillong and Mayabandar 7 each, Belgaum5, 

Manya, K. Paramathy, Dharmapuri and Kandla4 each and long Island, Anantapur, Pamban, Satara, 

Mysore, Tiruppattur and Salem2 each. 


INSAT imagery shows convective clouds at few places over coastal Andhra Pradesh adjoining 

westcentral Bay, Odisha, south Gangetic West Bengal, south Jharkhand, Mizoram, Manipur, 

Tamilnadu, Karnataka, south Maharashtra and rest south Bay of Bengal between 7N to 10.0N 

adjoining Andaman Sea. 


Today‟s analysis indicates presence of a cyclonic circulation over central Bay of Bengal. The 

centre of circulation is considerably different between the analyses of IMD-GFS & ECMWF. The 

same-way the forecast of in two models are considerably different. Whereas the circulation 

forecast by ECMWF is of intense depression on 29 th & 30 th September. ECMWF forecast shows 

systems is approaching Andhra coast whereas in GFS model cyclonic circulation is not showing 

any appreciable movement towards coast. Both GFS & UKMO models don‟t show any movement 

over landmass. The rainfall forecasts also differ in two models that is GFS & ECMWF. 

In upper troposphere Tibetan Anticyclone is near about 24.0N and sub-tropical westerly trough has 

reached upto Delhi latitude. Seasonal transition has taken place except over Northeast India where 

Tibetan Anticyclone is still prominent. 

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Mascarene High: Mascarene high is located at 28S/62E (Southeast of Madagascar) with central 

pressure 1026hPa. 

Tibetan Anti-Cyclone: Tibetan Anticyclone is located at 24.0N/97E. 

Systems over South China Sea/West Pacific Ocean: Typhoon “JELAWAT” is located at 

24.0N/124.8E with intensity T5.0/6.0 and another typhoon “Ewiniar” is located near 32.0N/143.4E 

intensity T3.0/3.0 at 0830UTC of today. Both of these typhoons are expected to move 

northeastward direction. 

Water vapour channel, which showed little water vapour in the upper troposphere upto Bihar in 

previous observations (24 th Sep) now shows little more water vapour over east UP & Bihar. This 

has apparently happened because moisture has transported from Bay of Bengal by upper 

tropospheric southeasterly winds. 

The two typhoons over northwest Pacific are maintained as shown in previous forecasts. Super 

typhoon “JELAWAT” lying over north of Philippines & east of Taiwan forecast indicated northeastward 

movement and another typhoon “Ewiniar” southeast of Japan is also moving in northeast 

direction towards Japan. 

Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from 

remaining parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, 

Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, some parts of west Madhya Pradesh and some more parts of 

Gujarat during next 2-3 days. 



0600 UTC INSAT Satellite Imagery. 29 September 2012. 

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