Next Generation Air Transportation System Integrated Plan

Three factors threaten the ability of aviation to grow and continue
to serve the nation:
1.1 Security
We must continue to squarely and aggressively face terrorism.
Following 9/11, the government acted swiftly and firmly to protect
us from aviation terrorism. Additional steps were taken to strengthen
all parts of aviation security
and our military was called
upon to perform the new
and difficult job of domestic
air patrol. Americans
understand and support the
new security requirements.
However, such actions cost
more than $4 billion per
year, and employ tens of
thousands of our nation’s security personnel at a time when many
other threats are also in need of attention. The flying public has also
spent its precious time to support improved security throughout the
airports. We need to find ways to secure aviation without detracting
from the affordability, speed, and predictable advantages we desire
in air transportation. Key factors in this problem include the
projected growth of 120 million additional international passengers
that will have to clear customs and security, the tripling of cargo
and passengers, the introduction of new types of vehicles, and new
potential threats. 2 Aviation security will require the coordination
of missions for national defense, homeland security, drug and
law enforcement, and air traffic management. Gaps must be
closed immediately to confront an ever-widening range of threats.
Efficiencies must be found to enable the anticipated growth in air
commerce.
1.2 Gridlock
Paradoxically, aviation’s own success will erode the unique speed,
predictability, and affordability benefits of air travel if the air
transportation system does not expand and adapt at the same
pace as the market demands. Historically, growth in aviation was
possible because significant investments were made to expand the
national airport system and because of our ability to incorporate
productivity enhancing technologies into the system. Today, in the
most densely populated areas of the U.S., we are barely keeping
pace with demand. In the year 2000, millions of Americans were
stranded in airports experiencing delays of more than an hour and,
in rare cases, to six hours or more. Using present forecasts and
maintaining aggressive plans for improvements, the Federal Aviation
Administration (FAA) predicts that even more major airports will be
congested in the 2020 time frame 3 (see Figure 1). Failure to address
the impact of air travel congestion on the mobility of Americans
could cost consumers up to $20 billion a year by 2025. 4
Figure 1. Congestion Continues to Build
2 Federal Aviation Administration, Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2004-2015, March 2004
3 Federal Aviation Administration, Future Airport Capacity Task – Final Report, June 2004.
4 Cavolowsky, John, and Lee Olsen, Socio-Economic Demand Forecast Study, NASA and FAA, January 2004.
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