PROVINCIAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT ...

PROVINCIAL DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND MANAGEMENT COUNCIL
Provincial Disaster Operation Center
Albay district, Legazpi City
La Niña Phenomenon Work Plan
THE ALBAY PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE STRATEGY
I - Introduction
La Niña is the cold counterpart of El Niño, meaning sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific
drop below normal. La Niña forms after some, but not all, El Niño, and therefore occurs less frequently than El
Niño. Many of the models, which correctly predicted that El Niño would weaken by May, also predicted that it
would be followed by a La Niña. As this year's El Niño weakens, there are already indications that it will lead to
a La Niña.
II – PAGASA Seasonal Climate Outlook July to December, 2010
Overview
Following the dissipation of the 2009/10 El Niño in early May 2010, a brief period of ENSO-neutral
conditions was observed until mid-June, and presently La Niña conditions are developing across the equatorial
Pacific. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies at the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP)
decreased to values approaching La Niña levels. Zonal wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific are stronger
than average easterlies, and below average sea temperatures exist beneath the surface of the equatorial
Pacific, strengthening and extending to the surface.
Most global climate models predict the CEEP will continue to cool over the coming months. The La
Niña condition which showed its early stages during late July is expected to strengthen through the coming
months.
July to September
The period is the peak of the Southwest (SW) monsoon season, locally known as “Habagat” and
tropical cyclone activity is likewise at its maximum. During the period, thunderstorm activities associated with
the SW monsoon, tropical cyclone activities characterized by heavy rainfall and strong winds, and intertropical
convergence zone (ITCZ) that reaches the northernmost part of the country during August, will prevail.
Seven (7) to ten (10) tropical cyclones are likely to develop/enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Monsoon breaks are likely to be expected during the period.
Rainfall conditions will likely to be near normal in the entire parts of the country, except in Camarines
Sur, Catanduanes and Eastern Visayas that will likely receive above normal rainfall. Gradual recession of rains
associated with the SW monsoon is expected during the later part of September up to early part of October.
October to December
The period covers the first half of the NE monsoon season and the weather systems likely to influence
the country are the tail end of the cold front, intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), easterly wave, ridge of
high pressure area (HPA), the easterlies and about five (5) to eight (8) tropical cyclones. During the season,

tropical cyclones move on a more westerly track across central and southern parts of Luzon and Visayas with
secondary tracks over northern Mindanao.
For October to December season, rainfall conditions are expected to be above normal in most parts
of Luzon, Northern Panay, Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and Southern Mindanao. The
rest of Luzon, major portions of Visayas and Mindanao area will likely experience near normal rainfall
conditions.
PAGASA will continue to closely monitor these conditions and regular updates/advisories shall be
issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the
potential adverse impacts of this La Niña episode.
Years of onset of strong or moderate La Niña (Cold Phase) Events
1930’s 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’2 1990’s 2000’s
1938 ----- 1950 1964 1970 1988 1995 2009
1955 1971 1998 2010
1956 1973
1975
The 12 Worst Typhoon Events in the Philippines
(Typhoons2000.com)
Typhoon Date Strength kph Deaths
1. Reming Nov 28-Dec 1 2006 320 734
2. Milenyo Sept 2006 14
3. Loleng Oct 14-24 1998 250 303
4. Rosing Oct 30 - Nov. 4, 1995 260 936
5. Kadiang Sept 30-Oct 7 1993 130 576
6. Ruping Nov. 10-14, 1990 220 748
7. Uring Nov. 2-7 1991 95 5,101
8. Sisang Nov 23-27, 1987 240 979
9. Nitang Aug. 31-Sept 4, 1984 220 1,363
10. Undang Nov 3-6 1984 230 895
11. Sening Oct 11-15, 1970 275 768
12. Amy Dec 6-19 1951 240 991

III – Possible Effects of La Niña
Effects
1. Flooding
2. Landslide
3. Mud flow (lahar)
Affected Sectors
1. Agriculture, aquaculture, residents in the low lying areas and those near the
river channels, livelihood, infrastructure like dam, weak dikes, bridges and
those exposed to heavy flood.
2. Upland agriculture, residents, some schools along the slopes, forests and
some minor forests.
3. Roads and bridges, residents, agriculture along the slope of Mayon Volcano.
IV - Measures to Mitigate its Effects
Activities
Status/Recommendation
1. Creation of Task Force La Niña Created under Executive Order 2010-06
2. Flood and Landslide Risk Mapping. Flood and landslide risk maps exist but require
Strengthen community-based real time detailed mapping to determine population at
warning system using rain gauge stations risk and critical resources by barangay.
3. Education and Training
a. Rubber boat operators
b. Balangay sa Barangay
(Upon Procurement of Rubber Boats for
distribution to all municipalities and cities of
Albay Province)
4. Round-table discussions with the LGU
Chief Executives
5. Community Planning Workshop on
Warning and Evacuation
Still to be conducted pending financial
support requiring an amount of P 13.7M for
the rubber boat operators and balangay sa
barangay with AECID support. The cost
includes procurement of rubber boat.
To be conducted middle of September. We
are opting for LCEs (instead of direct to
barangay chiefs due to their coming
elections). They will then disseminate to their
constituent barangays.
To be conducted by LGUs with technical
support from APSEMO. Will be taken up in
item 4.
Important but no proposal yet for possible
funding negotiation.
6. Improvement of rural and urban water
system to avoid possible contamination.
7. Improvement of river control system. Must be included in the priority project upon
recommendation or proposal by LGUs
concerned or PEO or DPWH
8. Improvement of irrigation system. Must be included in the priority projects
upon recommendation or proposal by LGUs
concerned and NIA
9. Strengthen Barangay Response
Mechanism.
10. Close coordination with PAGASA
Training Workshops on communication
protocol and evacuation procedures. LGU-
APSEMO partnership.

V - Implementation Strategy
1. La Niña Task Force created under Executive Order No. 2010-06 shall be responsible in the project
implementation.
2. An initial budget of P5M is appropriated for the operations of the Task Force
3. APSEMO will remain the secretariat of the Task Force.
4. Members of the task force will have to continue its regular meeting this September, 2010 on.
5. Implementation of the priority funded La Niña Projects are to be undertaken by the LNTF member
agencies upon approval by the governor and PDCC Chairman.
6. Request to expedite the release of financial support from AECID for the procurement of rubber boats,
support preparedness equipment and the training for the rubber boat operators and the balangay sa
barangay.
7. Submission of the LGUs PEO, NIA of proposal for immediate funding support from the National
Government Infra Fund and/or National Calamity Fund per item VI below.
VI - Suggested Institutional Arrangements for Project Implementation under Respective Existing Fund or for
Immediate Funding Support
Government
Office/Department
Agriculture
DCC/Legal
NFA/DSWD/PSWDO/
PNRC
Landslide Advance
Monitoring Team
PAGASA, MGB,
PHIVOLCS, LGUs, DPWH
Program of Activities
1. Information & education campaign
2. Plant/develop water-resistant varieties
3. Land and water management practices (e.g. Improvement of drainage
system)
4. Alternative livelihood
5. Suitable livestock production system
6. Fodder development and management
7. Animal health programs
8. Storage and post-harvest management
9. Increase short-season crop production to support nearby provinces
affected by La Niña.
10. Develop marketing scheme
1. Organize Task Force
2. Declare State of Calamity
3. International cooperation
4. Institutionalize Early Recovery Program
1. Food security
2. Storage and post harvest
1. Flood and landslide monitoring
2. Warning and evacuation
1. Analysis of hydro-meteorological data
2. Issuance of flood warning and precipitation data
3. Demarcation of flood prone areas
4. Demarcation of landslide prone areas with support from MGB.

5. Demarcation of lahar prone areas with support from PHIVOLCS.
6. Develop information for decision making
PHO, DOH, PEO, Water
Districts, LWUA
DTI, BFAD, DA
Forestry
Social Services and
Financial Institutions
BFP, LGUs, AFP, PNP
NIA
Prepared by:
CEDRIC D. DAEP, MBA
Department Head
1. Inventory of existing safe water facilities
2. Community education and issuances of health advisories and public
health monitoring and services
1. Monitoring and control of prices of basic and prime commodities,
agricultural and minor forest products, foods and drugs
1. Protection of catchment
2. Watershed management
1. Crop Insurance
2. Credit facilities
3. Relief Goods and Services
1. Transport of drinking, domestic waters
2. Communication System
1. Repair and maintenance of damaged irrigation system
2. Water resource development
Approved by:
GOV. JOEY SARTE SALCEDA