Jennifer Pagach, CT DEP - ICLEI Local Governments for ...

Mohegan Park Rd, Norwich 3/30/10
Groton Climate Change Adaptation Workshops
March 31, 2010
Jennifer Pagach
Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection

Updates: State and Other Efforts
Emerging Climate Science
Scenario and Range Planning
Inundation Scenarios
State Assets and Vulnerability in
Groton

New CT Climate Change Website- Adaptation
Section
Interns on Climate Change- Christine Tedford,
adaptation and website; Jonah Guerin, Fairfield
Beach Case Study; Kyle Weaver, Sentinel Monitoring
New Climate Change Group in Office of Long Island
Sound Programs to look at policies, procedures and
adaptation
Salt Marsh Migration/Conservation Strategies
Long Island Sound Study Stewardship- acquisition
at Barn Island for salt marsh migration
Updating Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan
Coordinate with others-state, local, federal, NGOs

GSC Infrastructure Adaptation Subcommittees,
C4 (GSC Staff) and Education Committee
3 EPA Climate Ready Estuary Grants- Sentinel
Monitoring Strategic Plan & Technical
Assistance, Groton-Presenting at Restore
America’s Estuaries, 1 st Bonn Resilient Cities
Connecticut Conference on Natural Resources
Sentinel Monitoring and adaptation strategies
Madison Rotary Club- Climate Change and SLR
in coastal areas, homeowners and stewards
Yale Climate Summit- presentation on Groton

The Governor's Steering Committee on Climate Change
Commissioner Amey Marrella, Department of
Environmental Protection, Chair of GSC
Chair Norma Glover, Connecticut Clean Energy Fund
Commissioner Brenda L. Sisco, Department of
Administrative Services
Vice Chairman John W. "Jack" Betkoski III, Department of
Public Utility Control
Commissioner Joseph F. Marie, Department of
Transportation
Under Secretary John Mengacci, Office of Policy and
Management
http://ctclimatechange.com

Natural Resources and Ecological Habitats
Co-chairs Bill Hyatt (CT DEP) and Adam Whelchel (The
Nature Conservancy)
Infrastructure
Co-chairs Paul Stacey (CT DEP) and Denise Savageau
(Greenwich)
Agriculture
Co-chairs Commissioner Prelli (CT DOAG) and Steve
Reviczky (CT Farm Bureau)
Public Health
Co-chairs Pamela Kilbey-Fox (CT DPH) and Dr.
Dennis McBride (Milford)
Lots of help from Robert Kaliszewski and Roslyn
Reeps!

Public Act No. 08-98 An Act Concerning
Connecticut Global Warming Solutions
CT Climate Change Adaptation Subcommittee
formed under the Governor’s Steering
Committee on Climate Change (GSC)
Agriculture workgroup
Natural Resources workgroup
Infrastructure workgroup
Public Health workgroup

Key Climate Drivers
Temperature
Precipitation
Air Quality
Top 5 Most Imperiled
Planning Areas or
Features
Maple Syrup
Dairy
Warm Weather Produce
Shellfish
Apple and Pear
Production
Opportunities
Longer Growing Season
Biofuels
Witch Hazel
Grape/Wine Production

Key Climate Drivers
Precipitation, including
extreme precipitation
events
Sea level rise, where
applicable
Most Imperiled
Planning Areas
Coastal Flood Control and
Protection
Dams and Levees
Stormwater
Transportation
Facilities and Buildings
Wastewater

identified river and coastal
flooding as primary impact
investment in land-based
best management practices
(BMP) are essential to water
quality and quantity
natural defenses, such as
barrier beaches and tidal
marshes, provide a buffer
against sea level rise and
storm surges

Key Climate Drivers
Temperature
Precipitation
Sea Level Rise
Most Imperiled Habitats
Cold Water Streams
Tidal Marsh
Open Water Marine
Beaches and Dunes
Freshwater Wetlands
Offshore Islands
Major Rivers
Forested Swamps

Five species of Birds: including seaside sparrow and piping
plover
Three species of Reptiles & Amphibians: including bog turtle
and diamond back terrapin
16 Invertebrate species: including lobster and Atlantis
fritillary
Six species of Fish: including brook trout and rainbow smelt
One Mammal: least shrew
44 Plant species: including dwarf mistletoe and balsam fir

Fragmentation eliminates biological corridors (aquatic
and terrestrial) that link habitats, which will reduce the
ability of plants and animals to migrate and adapt as the
climate changes.
Invasive species will likely increase with climate change
(19 spp. specifically identified).
Forests—the competitive advantage may shift to the
more southerly oak-hickory mix over northern
hardwoods (sugar maple, yellow birch, beech).
Increased water temperatures—abundance and
distribution of coldwater species may decline and
warmwater species may increase.

Sea Level Rise and severe coastal storms– may decrease
shoreline habitat
Some bird species will benefit from milder winters and
extended breeding seasons, whereas others, such as northern
species associated with forest habitats will decline.
Larger more adaptable mammal species (e.g., deer) may
benefit from climate change, whereas smaller less mobile
species (e.g., New England cottontail) may become isolated
and decrease.
Species of amphibians or invertebrates associated with
ephemeral aquatic habitats such as vernal pools are
particularly vulnerable.
Synchrony between plants and native pollinators may change.

Phenology is the study of the response of living organisms to the seasons
and climatic changes to the environment in which they live.

Climate drivers include temperature and
precipitation
Vector- Associated Diseases
Food Safety-- Extreme storm events will increase
contaminants in runoff impacting shellfish
Air Quality
◦ Increased ozone exposure leads to asthma and allergen
susceptibility
◦ EJ groups, the elderly and people who work outside are
most susceptible
PH Infrastructure
◦ Extreme storm events may increase the need for
emergency medical services
◦ Increases occurrence of >90 o days may shift sheltering
needs for homeless and elderly

Air Quality
◦ Increased ozone exposure leads to asthma and allergen
susceptibility
◦ EJ groups, the elderly and people who work outside are
most susceptible
Extreme Heat
◦ heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, Death
Ticks
Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Mosquitoes
West Nile Virus
Eastern Equine Encephalitis

Extreme storm events can increase
occurrences of combined sewer overflows,
septic failure, etc.
Rising sea levels could lead to salt intrusion
of coastal ground water supplies
Changing precipitation patterns can impact
surface and ground water supplies

New definition of resiliency?

Norwich boat launch-head of Thames
National Guard Activated To Battle
Flood Waters; Southeastern
Connecticut Getting The Worst Of It
March 30, 2010

Yantic Crests At Third-
Highest Level Ever Recorded

HARTFORD — Gov. M. Jodi Rell says
Connecticut officials are preparing to respond to
potential flooding across the state as a two-day
storm is expected to dump up to 8 inches of rain
in some areas.
Rell ordered the state emergency operations
center to open Monday morning and monitor the
storm.
Federal Emergency Management Agency
officials are also expected to be in southwestern
Connecticut on Monday morning to assess
major damage caused by a storm two weeks
ago.
The Aquarion Water Company is draining off some excess
water in the Dam in Mystic, which police said may cause
water levels near Cove Road. Residents in that area have not
been evacuated, but are being advised of the potentially
higher levels of water "just in case" they choose to leave,
Brennan said.
Storms Flood Basements, Roads
Norwich declares a state of emergency

The Culprit

King
Triton

As Sea Level Rises, so does the groundwater
table, so areas that do not directly flood may
drown as water table raises.
At what frequency of flooding does current
infrastructure become non-functional, like
airport, trains, etc.?
Is it possible to flood proof these?
What about UCONN Avery Point?

All around the world, there are people dealing
with climate change adaptation
There are people who have dealt with this
longer than us….

New Moore Island in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said Sugata Hazra, a
professor of oceanography at Jadavpur University, in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been
confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said.
"What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global
warming," said Mr Hazra.
Scientists at the School of Oceanographic Studies at the university have noted an alarming
increase in the rate at which sea levels have risen over the past decade in the Bay of Bengal.
Until 2000, the sea levels rose about 0.12 inches a year, but over the last decade they have
been rising about 0.2 inches annually, he said.
Another nearby island, Lohachara, was submerged in 1996, forcing its inhabitants to move to
the mainland, while almost half the land of Ghoramara island was underwater, he said. At least
10 other islands in the area were at risk as well, Mr Hazra said.
Bangladesh, a low-lying delta nation of 150 million people, is one of the countries worstaffected
by global warming. Officials estimate 18 per cent of Bangladesh's coastal area will be
under water and 20 million people will be displaced if sea levels rise 3.3 feet by 2050, as
projected by some climate models.
India and Bangladesh both claimed the uninhabited New Moore Island, which was about 3.5
kilometers (2 miles) long and 1.5 miles wide. Bangladesh referred to the island as South
Talpatti.

Since last workshop, more SLR modeling:
22 Mar 2010: Analysis
The Secret of Sea Level Rise:
It Will Vary Greatly by Region
As the world warms, sea levels could easily rise three to six feet this
century. But increases will vary widely by region, with prevailing
winds, powerful ocean currents, and even the gravitational pull of the
polar ice sheets determining whether some coastal areas will be
inundated while others stay dry.
by michael d. lemonick

Science keeps emerging, so plan for that
Plan for wide range of scenarios over time
Modeling under different conditions can help
frame how we are vulnerable
What are your short, mid and long term
concerns?
For these inundation scenarios, very close to
what state adaptation subcommittees are
using

Modeled 10 and 100 year storms
This is based on frequency of occurrence
Local factors like plate compression taken
into account
Used various planning horizons and
predictions- Sam & Paul to detail more
2050 low and higher scenario (10” and 20”)
2080 low and higher (17” and 55”)

Corresponding Values
Added Hurricane
Surge Inundation
Categories

DEP and State Owned Property

ROAD ACCESS AND
PARKING LOT AT BLUFF
POINT
2050 w/ high and low slr, at 10
and 100 yr storm

Underground
Storage Tanks

Blue and Pink- 2050 Low and High SLR
Green and Orange- 2080 Low and High SLR

We can start to model our vulnerabilities and
make projections
We can make correlations- might the effects
of an uncommon occurrence (hurricane) be
similar to a more frequent future occurrence
(10 year storm)
We can plan- short, mid and long term,
planning is an iterative process
We can start integrating into our day to day
We have tools, and yes, we are the State…
And We Are Here to Help!

Jennifer Pagach, CT DEP
Jennifer.pagach@ct.gov
(860) 424-3295