Payment Periods in Europe - Euler Hermes
Payment Periods in Europe - Euler Hermes
Payment Periods in Europe - Euler Hermes
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no. 1182<br />
Special ”Dossier”<br />
<strong>Payment</strong> periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>:<br />
wide gaps<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> Economic Research Department<br />
Economic Outlook<br />
www.eulerhermes.com | no. 1182
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Contents<br />
n°1182<br />
Special Dossier<br />
<strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Payment</strong> periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>: wide gaps<br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Editorial<br />
page 3<br />
page 4<br />
> Overview – The <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> payment periods poses a major risk to <strong>Europe</strong>an recovery page 4<br />
page 8<br />
> First Focus po<strong>in</strong>t – A three-speed <strong>Europe</strong> page 8<br />
page 12<br />
> Second Focus po<strong>in</strong>t – What determ<strong>in</strong>es payment periods <strong>in</strong> different sectors? page 12<br />
• Automobiles and automotive components >The problem for subcontractors page 14<br />
• Air transport >An <strong>in</strong>strument of globalisation but marked by regional differences page 18<br />
• Chemicals >Supply<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustries and support<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>dustrial fabric via client credit page 20<br />
• Pharmaceuticals >No cash flow problems page 22<br />
• IT services > Constra<strong>in</strong>ed by their clientele page 24<br />
• Aeronautic components >Stability <strong>in</strong> payment periods – sign of a healthy sector page 25<br />
• Construction >The sector with the greatest disparities page 26<br />
• Four determ<strong>in</strong>ants to note page 28<br />
• Comparison Germany-France page 28<br />
Annexes<br />
page 29<br />
• Annex I > Law on the Modernisation of the Economy (LME) and sector round tables <strong>in</strong> France page 29<br />
• Annex II > <strong>Payment</strong> defaults <strong>in</strong> Italy page 30<br />
• Annex III > Detailed data, by country page 31<br />
• Annex IV > Detailed data, by sector page 32<br />
Subsidiaries<br />
page 33<br />
Economic Outlook<br />
series<br />
page 35<br />
Le Bullet<strong>in</strong> Économique du Groupe <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> is issued ten times a year by the Economic research department of <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong>. It is also available on subscription for<br />
other bus<strong>in</strong>esses and organisations. Reproduction is authorised, so long as mention of source is made. o Publication Director and Chief Economist: Ludovic Subran<br />
• Study coord<strong>in</strong>ated by: Virg<strong>in</strong>ie Reboul (Economist) • Macroeconomic Research: Maxime Lemerle (Manager), Mahamoud Islam (Economist) • Global Sector Research:<br />
Yann Lacroix (Manager), Bruno Goutard, Marc Liv<strong>in</strong>ec, Didier Moizo (Sector Economists) • Country risk Research: David Atk<strong>in</strong>son (Manager), Andrew Atk<strong>in</strong>son, Manfred<br />
Stamer (Economists) • Have also contributed to this publication: Romeo Grill (Economist for Germany), Dan North (Economist for the USA), Christian Péchard (Infocenter<br />
Studies Manager), Andrea Pignagnoli (Economist) • Graphic Design: Claire Mabille • Editors: Mart<strong>in</strong>e Benhadj • Support: Anne-Marie Bégoc, Valérie Poula<strong>in</strong> • Translation:<br />
Charles Prager • For further <strong>in</strong>formation, contact: the Economic Research Department of <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> at 1, place des Saisons 92 048 Paris La Défense Cedex – Tel.: +33<br />
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Evreux, France – Permit April 2012—Bull 1176; ISSN 1 162 – 2 881 o 31 May 2012<br />
2
Economic Outlook N° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Editorial<br />
The harmonisation of payment periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>: a<br />
necessary evil?<br />
Although the notion of economic convergence seems crucial to the future of the<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Monetary Union, it is threatened by the upheavals be<strong>in</strong>g undergone.<br />
The grow<strong>in</strong>g gaps <strong>in</strong> growth, public deficits and current account balances – both <strong>in</strong><br />
scale and <strong>in</strong>tensity – demonstrate that the differences between the heart of the<br />
Eurozone and the periphery are here to stay. Creat<strong>in</strong>g a common economic policy<br />
that benefits from this heterogeneity and that ultimately transcends it is an essential<br />
task, especially to allay fears over the Eurozone’s very future. The toolbox – of which<br />
the <strong>Europe</strong>an F<strong>in</strong>ancial Stability Facility (EFSF), the <strong>Europe</strong>an Stability Mechanism<br />
(ESM) and the <strong>Europe</strong>an Investment Bank (EIB) are parts – strengthens <strong>in</strong>stitutional<br />
convergence, but it does not solve the problem of the efficient specialisation of<br />
economies that one would expect. The economic debate, for its part, rema<strong>in</strong>s marked<br />
by this <strong>in</strong>dispensable convergence, crystallized by the furious speed required to<br />
return to balanced budgets for 2012 and 2013. Mak<strong>in</strong>g this adjustment is particularly<br />
hard for the countries of Southern <strong>Europe</strong>, hit by severe recessions. This study focuses<br />
on a less visible but equally important convergence: that of payment periods between<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses. By March 2013, under a <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive, contractual payment periods<br />
<strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> must be set at a maximum of 60 days. Some countries are ready for this,<br />
such as France, while others, such as Germany, already show payment periods well<br />
below 60 days. By contrast, Italy, Spa<strong>in</strong> and Portugal, as well as certa<strong>in</strong> key economic<br />
sectors <strong>in</strong> some countries, such as construction and IT services, are far from the<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an target. On top of this is the deterioration <strong>in</strong> economic activity <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>. This<br />
should further amplify these gaps by 2013. Will <strong>Europe</strong>an SMEs, which create the<br />
growth of the Eurozone, suffer from an overly rapid convergence, one that is<br />
countercyclical and potentially damag<strong>in</strong>g to their cash flows? When you focus <strong>in</strong> on<br />
the sector level, the differences between client and supplier payment periods are<br />
considerable and at times alarm<strong>in</strong>g. In economic policy terms, efforts to support and<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease the competitiveness of the private sector rema<strong>in</strong> little discussed, despite a<br />
marked rise <strong>in</strong> bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>in</strong>solvencies nearly everywhere <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>. Discussions over<br />
sovereign debt occupy a great deal of attention, but they do not address the<br />
difficulties fac<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>esses. However, it is today that we will determ<strong>in</strong>e the health of<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>’s <strong>in</strong>dustrial fabric for the future. _Ludovic Subran<br />
3
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Overview<br />
The <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> payment periods<br />
poses a major risk<br />
to <strong>Europe</strong>an recovery<br />
As we near the March 2013 implementation of<br />
the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive, B2B payment periods<br />
are now more than ever a core concern. Cash<br />
flow dynamics are always crucial for a bus<strong>in</strong>ess, and<br />
this becomes especially the case at times of economic<br />
crisis and more restricted access to bank or market<br />
f<strong>in</strong>ance, dur<strong>in</strong>g which even more rigorous management<br />
of accounts receivable and payable is called for.<br />
1<br />
Def<strong>in</strong>itions<br />
▶ Contractual payment period > the time period dur<strong>in</strong>g<br />
which payment should be made accord<strong>in</strong>g to the provisions<br />
agreed between the client and the supplier (stated <strong>in</strong> days).<br />
▶ Effective payment period > the time period at the end of<br />
which the payments due as agreed between the client and<br />
the supplier are actually made (stated <strong>in</strong> days).<br />
▶ Lateness of payment > the time difference between the<br />
contractual payment period and effective payment period.<br />
The sum of the average lateness of payment and the<br />
contractual time yields the effective payment period (stated<br />
<strong>in</strong> days).<br />
▶ Days’revenue (DR) > unit consensually used to express<br />
payment periods when they are calculated us<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
balance sheet data, divid<strong>in</strong>g the amount of client credits or<br />
supplier debts by average daily revenue.<br />
▶ Client payment period > the average time until collection<br />
by the bus<strong>in</strong>ess of client payments, tak<strong>in</strong>g account of the<br />
payment periods agreed by the bus<strong>in</strong>ess. The longer the<br />
delay, the more the bus<strong>in</strong>ess’s cash flows suffer from a lack of<br />
funds.<br />
▶ Supplier payment period > the average time taken by a<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>ess to pay suppliers, tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to account the time<br />
periods agreed with the bus<strong>in</strong>ess. The shorter the payment<br />
period, the more the bus<strong>in</strong>ess’s cash flow suffers from a lack<br />
of funds due to rapid payment.<br />
▶ Tension <strong>in</strong>dicator >the difference between client<br />
payment periods and supplier payment periods (stated <strong>in</strong><br />
days).<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
4
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
The importance of payment periods<br />
A microeconomic problem…<br />
… and an <strong>in</strong>dicator of the bus<strong>in</strong>ess climate<br />
Order<br />
Issu<strong>in</strong>g<br />
of <strong>in</strong>voice<br />
60 days maximum<br />
Period def<strong>in</strong>ed by the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive<br />
Date Invoice d’échéance<br />
de due la facture date<br />
> An aggregate calculated for a country or sector that:<br />
– gauges the fluidity of exchanges between<br />
a country’s bus<strong>in</strong>esses,<br />
– is a measure of cash flow management vitality,<br />
– has an impact on bus<strong>in</strong>ess climate attractiveness.<br />
Delivery<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Besides a sharp upturn <strong>in</strong> the volume of <strong>in</strong>solvencies,<br />
the end-stage of bus<strong>in</strong>ess difficulties, the crisis and its<br />
many secondary effects have brought a marked deterioration<br />
<strong>in</strong> the quality of B2B payments <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
There have been overall <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> the rate of losses<br />
aris<strong>in</strong>g from bad debts, <strong>in</strong> late payments, and more<br />
broadly <strong>in</strong> payment periods, while B2B credit is a major<br />
mode of f<strong>in</strong>ance across all countries. The current economic<br />
and f<strong>in</strong>ancial climate, marked by a deteriorat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
outlook and by <strong>in</strong>creased uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty and greater volatility,<br />
strengthens the need that much more to monitor<br />
and manage the risks associated with the lengthen<strong>in</strong>g<br />
of these payment periods.<br />
Many data sources exist for measur<strong>in</strong>g and compar<strong>in</strong>g<br />
payment periods, as well as several studies to analyze<br />
developments <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>ter-company payment. However,<br />
their methodologies vary <strong>in</strong> terms of the nature of the<br />
data they employ – either us<strong>in</strong>g quantitative data<br />
(from national adm<strong>in</strong>istrative databases, <strong>in</strong>stitutes or<br />
surveys), and most often on only an annual basis, or<br />
<strong>in</strong>fra-annually, or – most often – us<strong>in</strong>g qualitative data<br />
result<strong>in</strong>g from samples or surveys. The methodologies<br />
also vary <strong>in</strong> terms of the scope of their studies, either<br />
<strong>in</strong> terms of bus<strong>in</strong>ess size (SMEs or large companies) or<br />
time-scope under study (payment periods or only late<br />
payments). As a result, the comparative, studies exam<strong>in</strong>e<br />
fields of vary<strong>in</strong>g scope, with no effective harmonis<strong>in</strong>g<br />
methodology. Also, these analyses are<br />
mostly descriptive, cover<strong>in</strong>g sectoral matters, and<br />
generally do not offer any quantitative forecast. Lastly,<br />
we should note that, by its nature, it rema<strong>in</strong>s hard to<br />
summarise the payment period situation for a country<br />
or even a sector, given the wide amplitude of payment<br />
periods from one bus<strong>in</strong>ess to another.<br />
◾◾◾<br />
2<br />
Legal aspects<br />
To put an end to the problem of late<br />
payments, countries are mobilis<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Union > <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive 2011/7 of 16 February<br />
will replace <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive 2000/35 of 29 June. Member<br />
States must make the changeover by 16 March at the latest. The<br />
ma<strong>in</strong> measures of the Directive are:<br />
> establish<strong>in</strong>g a standard payment period of 30 days;<br />
> sett<strong>in</strong>g a maximum payment period of 60 days <strong>in</strong> the absence<br />
of any contractual stipulation sett<strong>in</strong>g another payment period<br />
> <strong>in</strong>troduction of penalties <strong>in</strong> the event of late payment, with<br />
a unit <strong>in</strong>demnity of 40 euros <strong>in</strong>terest charged on late payment<br />
(reference rates plus 8%).<br />
France > The French Law on the Modernisation of the Economy<br />
(LME), France ▶ The French Law on the Modernisation<br />
of the Economy (LME), <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong> 2009, imposes a maximum<br />
payment period of 60 days, 45 days from the end of the<br />
month beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g from date of issue of the <strong>in</strong>voice. 35 derogations<br />
(sector agreements) have allowed bus<strong>in</strong>esses that otherwise<br />
would have run <strong>in</strong>to severe difficulties to benefit from more<br />
flexible, gradual conditions. On 29 February, France's National<br />
Assembly adopted the proposed bill concern<strong>in</strong>g the simplification<br />
of legislation, which, <strong>in</strong> particular, provides for the extension of<br />
dispensatory payment periods.<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> > Spa<strong>in</strong>’s law 15/2010 of July 2010 established a timetable<br />
of gradual application of these new payment periods:<br />
> from its entry <strong>in</strong>to force until 31 December, payment periods<br />
were limited to 85 days<br />
> from 1 January 2012 to 31 December, a maximum payment<br />
period of 75 days<br />
> from 1 January, payment periods limited to 60 days<br />
Sources: M<strong>in</strong>istries of Economy, F<strong>in</strong>ance and Foreign Trade, Official Journal<br />
of the <strong>Europe</strong>an Union<br />
5
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
◾◾◾<br />
From the literature on the subject and from past<br />
experience, notably dur<strong>in</strong>g the crisis of w<strong>in</strong>ter 2008-<br />
2009 and the emergence from crisis that followed,<br />
three key facts on payment periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> can be<br />
noted:<br />
▶ An economic recovery does not<br />
necessarily imply a shorten<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods.<br />
The crisis has generally necessitated tighter control<br />
over cash flows, with reductions <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>vestment and<br />
optimisation of <strong>in</strong>ventories. However, these have not<br />
been enough to offset the exceptional scale of the<br />
downturn, which has brought <strong>in</strong>creased payment<br />
periods <strong>in</strong> every country <strong>in</strong> our study, apart from one<br />
notable exception – France, partly because of legal<br />
changes over this period. At the same time, the rise<br />
<strong>in</strong> late payments and payment defaults has also<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased perceptions of a lower likelihood of be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
paid on time. Conversely, recovery <strong>in</strong> the economy<br />
does not automatically signify a trend of reduced<br />
payment periods. In the very short term, the recovery<br />
phase of activity can <strong>in</strong>itially be accompanied by an<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> exposure (accounts receivable and payable)<br />
at a faster pace than turnover, which counters<br />
the shorten<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> payment periods, and it then<br />
requires the growth <strong>in</strong> activity to accelerate more<br />
than proportionally: France saw no reduction <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods <strong>in</strong> 2010, on annual average. Growth of<br />
0.1%, <strong>in</strong> our study, implies a change <strong>in</strong> client payment<br />
periods of between -1.3% and +0.5%.<br />
▶ A rise <strong>in</strong> late payments <strong>in</strong>creases<br />
<strong>in</strong>solvencies more than proportionally,<br />
but the obverse is generally not shown.<br />
In 2011, <strong>in</strong> countries such as Germany and France,<br />
the downtrend <strong>in</strong> late payment periods was accompanied<br />
at the same time by a fall <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>solvencies.<br />
However <strong>in</strong> Belgium and even more <strong>in</strong> The United<br />
K<strong>in</strong>gdom, this same trend failed to prevent a rise <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>solvencies. In practice, a relationship between late<br />
payment periods and <strong>in</strong>solvencies is seen much<br />
more dur<strong>in</strong>g periods of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g late payment<br />
periods, which are propitious to a sharp rise <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>solvencies.<br />
▶ A favourable legal framework br<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
<strong>in</strong>creased attractiveness.<br />
The <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive will prove an effort for some<br />
countries, for <strong>in</strong>stance <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong>, which<br />
must gradually come <strong>in</strong>to l<strong>in</strong>e with the new standards.<br />
However, the convergence should <strong>in</strong> the long<br />
run also allow them to generally reduce their payment<br />
risk profiles (all other th<strong>in</strong>gs be<strong>in</strong>g equal), and,<br />
<strong>in</strong> so do<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>in</strong>crease their attractiveness as <strong>in</strong>ternational<br />
trad<strong>in</strong>g partners. France regulates payment<br />
periods through its Law on the Modernisation of the<br />
Economy (LME), <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong> 2009 (see ‘Legal<br />
aspects’p. 5). The French government would like to<br />
further reduce payment periods to 30 days for SMEs<br />
and VSEs. Clearly anticipat<strong>in</strong>g the com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Europe</strong>an<br />
Directive, Spa<strong>in</strong>’s law of July 2010 (see ‘Legal<br />
aspects’p. 5) sets out a timetable for the gradual<br />
application of these payment periods.<br />
Focus on France<br />
The legal framework and the effect of the LME<br />
6%<br />
4%<br />
2%<br />
0<br />
-2%<br />
-4%<br />
Introduction<br />
of the LME<br />
-6%<br />
98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12<br />
Growth (left axis)<br />
Client payment periods (left axis)<br />
Inverse growth <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>solvencies (right axis)<br />
-20%<br />
-15%<br />
-10%<br />
-5%<br />
0<br />
-5%<br />
-10%<br />
-15%<br />
-20%<br />
▶ The case of France<br />
It is notably thanks to the LME and the<br />
anticipation of its com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to force that<br />
French bus<strong>in</strong>esses improved payment<br />
periods and their volatility, an important<br />
po<strong>in</strong>t to the extent that they use four<br />
times as much <strong>in</strong>ter-bus<strong>in</strong>ess credit<br />
than bank credit (at around 400 billion<br />
and 100 billion euros respectively), with<br />
accounts payable account<strong>in</strong>g for<br />
between 25% and 30% of the total<br />
balance sheet of French bus<strong>in</strong>esses.<br />
In 2009 payment periods fell by 3% and<br />
<strong>in</strong>solvencies rose by 12% (aga<strong>in</strong>st +15%<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2008).<br />
6<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong>
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
The aim of this study is to provide a comparative<br />
analysis between countries (our first focus po<strong>in</strong>t)<br />
and between sectors (second focus po<strong>in</strong>t) for client<br />
and for supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>. The<br />
major f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs of our study are summarised below:<br />
1The slow<strong>in</strong>g of efforts seen start<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
2009 confirms the existence of three<br />
dynamics <strong>in</strong> at work <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
In this <strong>in</strong>itial analysis, us<strong>in</strong>g the BACH database (a<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an database on non-f<strong>in</strong>ancial firms issued by<br />
the Bank of France), we studied the course of payment<br />
periods for several <strong>Europe</strong>an countries over the period<br />
2000-2010 (available balance sheets). We next offer<br />
a prospective view of payment periods for 2012-2013<br />
us<strong>in</strong>g <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> data, which will highlight the<br />
magnitude of the efforts that need to be made. The<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicators of change and of cash flow tensions generated<br />
put the accent on the changes and the trends<br />
<strong>in</strong> payment behaviour more than on the length of payment<br />
periods, and best reflect the risks of worsen<strong>in</strong>g<br />
cash flows that are already under pressure.<br />
> There is a clear disparity between the countries of<br />
Northern and Southern <strong>Europe</strong> that risks widen<strong>in</strong>g<br />
over the very short term (2012), <strong>in</strong> the current economic<br />
environment, and this will mean greater<br />
efforts to be made, especially for countries <strong>in</strong><br />
Southern <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
The gaps by country. We can dist<strong>in</strong>guish <strong>in</strong> fact ‘three<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>s’: Germany and Poland, both of whom show<br />
payment periods shorter than the 60 days set out <strong>in</strong><br />
the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive and display<strong>in</strong>g very low cash<br />
flow tension <strong>in</strong>dicators; Belgium and France with payment<br />
periods close to 60 days; and Spa<strong>in</strong>, Italy and<br />
Portugal, all of which saw significant <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods <strong>in</strong> 2009 and will have to make considerable<br />
efforts to meet the 60-day standard.<br />
> The outlook for 2012 is for an accentuation of the<br />
gaps between countries and therefore of the efforts<br />
to be made.<br />
In 2012, payment periods should mirror economic<br />
developments. With an outlook for positive growth,<br />
payment periods for bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> Poland and<br />
Germany should normally shorten by an average of 2%<br />
and 0.5% respectively. For France and Belgium, with<br />
growth forecast to be below potential, payment<br />
periods will <strong>in</strong>crease by 0.5%. By contrast, the countries<br />
most <strong>in</strong> difficulty, such as Spa<strong>in</strong>, Italy and Portugal,<br />
should see an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> payment periods, tak<strong>in</strong>g<br />
them further away from the 60-day target before<br />
16 March.<br />
> In 2013, a general, but limited, improvement <strong>in</strong><br />
payment periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
The outlook for positive growth <strong>in</strong> 2013 will allow an<br />
automatic improvement <strong>in</strong> payment period practices,<br />
but this will not be enough to meet the target.<br />
2 <strong>Europe</strong>an sectors: 4 groups.<br />
In a second analysis, we employ the <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
database for a closer exam<strong>in</strong>ation of <strong>Europe</strong>an bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
sectors, over a greater number of countries. We<br />
focus on eight key sectors.<br />
> Gaps between sectors will persist, driven by the<br />
difficult economic situation and by still unequal<br />
negotiat<strong>in</strong>g strengths.<br />
There is a clear gap between sectors with<strong>in</strong> a given<br />
country and between countries <strong>in</strong> a given sector. The<br />
rank<strong>in</strong>g of sectors (by length of payment periods)<br />
rema<strong>in</strong> fairly similar from country to country. However,<br />
<strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong>, the sectoral differences are four to<br />
five times greater than <strong>in</strong> Northern <strong>Europe</strong>. Our eight<br />
sectors break down <strong>in</strong>to four groups: (1) air transport<br />
and automobiles, with concentrated suppliers and<br />
clients who pay quickly; (2) pharmaceuticals, chemicals<br />
and automotive components, with average payment<br />
periods s<strong>in</strong>ce they are widely present <strong>in</strong> the economy,<br />
and aeronautic component suppliers; (3) IT<br />
services, where unequal barga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g power is the rule;<br />
and (4) construction, with domestically-based suppliers<br />
and clients. ▣<br />
▶ Areas of analysis<br />
> For the first analysis:<br />
Countries: Germany, Belgium, Spa<strong>in</strong>, France,<br />
Poland, Italy and Portugal<br />
All sizes of bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
Period: 2000-2010<br />
> For the second analysis:<br />
Countries: Germany, Belgium, Spa<strong>in</strong>, France,<br />
Italy, United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, United States, Denmark,<br />
Norway, and Sweden.<br />
All sizes of bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
Period: 2006-2010<br />
Bus<strong>in</strong>ess sectors<br />
Sector Division NACE Code 1<br />
Automobiles 34 34.1 to 34.3<br />
Automotive components - 28.4<br />
Chemicals - 4.1, 24.2, 24.3, 24.5, 24.6, 24.7<br />
Pharmaceuticals - 24.4<br />
Air transport 62 62.1 and 62.2<br />
Aeronautic components - 35.3<br />
Construction - 45.2 and 45.4<br />
IT services 72 72.1 to 72.6<br />
7
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
First<br />
Focus po<strong>in</strong>t<br />
A three-speed <strong>Europe</strong><br />
Diverg<strong>in</strong>g developments <strong>in</strong><br />
the face of the economic climate<br />
and the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive<br />
This analysis highlights clear differences <strong>in</strong><br />
payment behaviour that comes as no revelation,<br />
given the warn<strong>in</strong>g sounded <strong>in</strong> June 2000 with the<br />
<strong>in</strong>itial publication by the <strong>Europe</strong>an Commission of<br />
its Directive to combat late B2B payments.<br />
However, with the targets not be<strong>in</strong>g met, on<br />
16 February the Commission proposed a new<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Directive to allow long-term genu<strong>in</strong>e<br />
harmonisation with<strong>in</strong> the EU. By 16 March 2013<br />
this Directive has to be enter <strong>in</strong>to law <strong>in</strong> all Member<br />
States. Our follow<strong>in</strong>g account of 2000-2010 and<br />
our forecasts thus do not capture the legislative<br />
impact <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong> (July 2010) and <strong>in</strong> the <strong>Europe</strong>an<br />
Union (March 2013).<br />
Look<strong>in</strong>g forward on the basis of macroeconomic<br />
forecasts suggests only a weak convergence by<br />
2013 (the target date of the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive<br />
be<strong>in</strong>g 16 March), after an <strong>in</strong>terven<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong><br />
payment period gaps <strong>in</strong> 2012 due primarily to the<br />
weakness <strong>in</strong> the economy.<br />
▶ Sectoral gaps 4 to 5 times bigger <strong>in</strong><br />
Southern <strong>Europe</strong> than <strong>in</strong> Northern<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
> Italy and Spa<strong>in</strong> show large disparities<br />
between sectors: with a national average<br />
of 79 days for client payment periods,<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> has payment periods rang<strong>in</strong>g<br />
between 174 days <strong>in</strong> the construction<br />
sector to only 48 days <strong>in</strong> the automotive<br />
sector, a difference of 126 days.<br />
> German bus<strong>in</strong>esses posted average<br />
client payment periods of 24 days <strong>in</strong> 2010,<br />
with small variation (31 days), depend<strong>in</strong>g<br />
on the sector.<br />
8
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
At the end of 2010, on the eve of the<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Directive com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to force,<br />
payment periods <strong>in</strong> different countries<br />
were highly disparate, both <strong>in</strong> duration<br />
and <strong>in</strong> trend, and particularly worse <strong>in</strong><br />
countries <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
▶ Germany and Poland already largely with<strong>in</strong> the<br />
standards<br />
We see Germany and Poland already well below the<br />
60-day standard set by the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive. The<br />
two countries are dist<strong>in</strong>guished by their strict<br />
enforcement of late payment penalties. They show a<br />
negative change <strong>in</strong>dicator, reflect<strong>in</strong>g a steady<br />
improvement <strong>in</strong> payment behaviour. At 24<br />
days’revenue on average <strong>in</strong> 2010, client payment<br />
periods for German bus<strong>in</strong>esses fell by 21% between<br />
2000 and 2010. Poland showed average payment<br />
periods of 45 days’revenue <strong>in</strong> 2010, the same as <strong>in</strong><br />
2005.<br />
▶ France and Belgium <strong>in</strong> the middle<br />
Belgium and France neared the 60-day standard over<br />
the decade. After fall<strong>in</strong>g by 10% s<strong>in</strong>ce 2000, the time,<br />
client payment periods <strong>in</strong> France stood at 61 days <strong>in</strong><br />
2010. This was largely due to anticipation of the 60-<br />
day maximum LME standard and its implementation.<br />
The relatively high level of Belgium’s cash flow tension<br />
<strong>in</strong>dicator means that bus<strong>in</strong>esses there must pay<br />
special attention to cash flow management.<br />
We can see that the <strong>in</strong>dicators of change <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
terms <strong>in</strong> France were the only improvements <strong>in</strong> 2009.<br />
Initially fairly close to that <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong>, French<br />
payment behaviour has approached that of Northern<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>, thanks notably to the implementation of the<br />
LME and also that to the importance of its trade with<br />
Germany, where payment periods are short.<br />
The levels of payment periods <strong>in</strong> France and Belgium<br />
enable them to anticipate the implementation of the<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Directive with a certa<strong>in</strong> vigilant calm.<br />
▶ Southern <strong>Europe</strong> at the back<br />
With longer contractual payment periods, Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong>troduced its 10 July 2010 law to gradually reduce<br />
payment periods to conform to the <strong>Europe</strong>an<br />
Directive by 1 January. However, like Portugal and<br />
Italy, countries <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong> are suffer<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
the economic climate and display payment periods<br />
well above the norm, ris<strong>in</strong>g to between 80 and 100<br />
days s<strong>in</strong>ce 2009. At 116 days’turnover, payment<br />
periods <strong>in</strong> Italy are the longest of these.<br />
◾◾◾<br />
Amplitude*<br />
150<br />
The average payment period masks major differences between countries<br />
120<br />
90<br />
IT<br />
ES<br />
60<br />
30<br />
GB<br />
FR<br />
BE<br />
SE DE NO<br />
DK<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
0<br />
20 50 80 110<br />
Length of payment periods<br />
* The difference between the sector post<strong>in</strong>g the longest payment periods <strong>in</strong> the country and the sector with the shortest payment periods <strong>in</strong> the country.<br />
Panel of sectors: automobiles, automotive components, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, air transport, aeronautic components, construction and IT services.<br />
9
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
An outlook of lengthen<strong>in</strong>g payment periods…<br />
… driven by a worsened economic environment<br />
+ 0.5 %<br />
- 1.5 %<br />
- 0.5 %<br />
- 1 %<br />
- 2 %<br />
- 2.5 %<br />
+ 0.5 %<br />
+ 1 %<br />
+ 0 %<br />
+ 1.5 %<br />
+ 2.5 %<br />
+ 0.5 %<br />
+ 2 %<br />
0 %<br />
Value 1: Change <strong>in</strong> payment periods from 2011 to 2012<br />
Value 2: Change <strong>in</strong> payment periods from 2012 to 2013<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
◾◾◾<br />
Look<strong>in</strong>g forward: widen<strong>in</strong>g disparities,<br />
major efforts to be made, too rapid and<br />
perhaps <strong>in</strong>opportune?<br />
Us<strong>in</strong>g the econometric relationship between<br />
changes <strong>in</strong> payment periods and the economic<br />
environment, we expect a lengthen<strong>in</strong>g of payment<br />
periods. This is without tak<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to account the<br />
potential positive effect of anticipations of the<br />
Directive com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to force.<br />
In the countries of Northern <strong>Europe</strong>, relations between<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses and banks allow banks to commit<br />
provid<strong>in</strong>g borrowers with the funds to pay suppliers<br />
with<strong>in</strong> contractual deadl<strong>in</strong>es. In France and<br />
Southern <strong>Europe</strong>, by contrast, a system of supplier<br />
credit applies, which makes meet<strong>in</strong>g contractual<br />
deadl<strong>in</strong>es more difficult.<br />
payment periods will cont<strong>in</strong>ue to improve, dropp<strong>in</strong>g<br />
by 0.5% <strong>in</strong> the former. In Poland, they should shorten<br />
by 2%, <strong>in</strong> negative correlation with its 3% growth<br />
rate.<br />
▶ Positive momentum <strong>in</strong> France (due to the LME);<br />
but <strong>in</strong> Belgium, by contrast, economic setbacks will<br />
be more determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g.<br />
With growth forecast at 0.3% <strong>in</strong> France and 0.2% <strong>in</strong><br />
Belgium – <strong>in</strong> both cases below their growth potential<br />
– the two countries will see a slight 0.5% <strong>in</strong>crease<br />
<strong>in</strong> payment periods. In 2013, while B2B payment<br />
periods are likely to cont<strong>in</strong>ue ris<strong>in</strong>g by a further 1% <strong>in</strong><br />
France, these times should shorten by 1.5% <strong>in</strong> Belgium<br />
We may expect slightly less rigorous payment discipl<strong>in</strong>e<br />
and a certa<strong>in</strong> degree of confidence among<br />
French bus<strong>in</strong>esses, possibly due to their use of credit<br />
<strong>in</strong>surance.<br />
▶ Germany and Poland: small-scale reduction and<br />
nearly no contribution to the economic environment.<br />
Both countries have been rigorous, with payment<br />
periods – already shorter than required under the<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Directive – and they are cont<strong>in</strong>u<strong>in</strong>g their<br />
efforts.<br />
In 2012, both countries by our forecasts will enjoy<br />
growth – at 1% <strong>in</strong> Germany and 3% <strong>in</strong> Poland – and<br />
▶ Southern <strong>Europe</strong>an countries, hit hard by the crisis,<br />
will struggle to atta<strong>in</strong> the targets.<br />
<strong>Payment</strong> periods <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>, Portugal and Italy should<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> 2012. We forecast a natural growth <strong>in</strong><br />
payment periods <strong>in</strong> these countries, with a 2.5%<br />
<strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong> and a 2% <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> Italy, do<strong>in</strong>g<br />
noth<strong>in</strong>g to help them meet the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive.<br />
10
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Cash flow pressures should <strong>in</strong>crease.<br />
From 2007 to 2008, we have seen an evident <strong>in</strong>tensification<br />
of cash flow tensions <strong>in</strong> Portugal and Italy,<br />
already at high levels.<br />
Increased cash flow tensions force bus<strong>in</strong>esses to f<strong>in</strong>d<br />
other sources of f<strong>in</strong>ance. By contrast, <strong>in</strong> Poland a<br />
nearly zero cash flow requirement (1 day) underl<strong>in</strong>es<br />
tight cash flow management. Spa<strong>in</strong>, for its part, has<br />
escaped the cash flow scissors effect suffered <strong>in</strong><br />
other Southern <strong>Europe</strong>an countries only thanks to<br />
supplier payment periods be<strong>in</strong>g nearly as long as<br />
client payment periods.<br />
Despite show<strong>in</strong>g acceptable cash flow requirements,<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> France and Belgium should pay close<br />
attention to cash flow management.<br />
In 2013, the prospects for growth are better than <strong>in</strong><br />
2012 and suggest a positive <strong>in</strong>fluence on B2B payment<br />
periods. However, this should be of limited<br />
scale <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong>an countries, necessitat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
major efforts there to meet the targets of the<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Directive.<br />
The new <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive should prove difficult<br />
to implement by 2013, especially <strong>in</strong><br />
Southern <strong>Europe</strong>an countries, and could <strong>in</strong> the<br />
short term impact on the number of <strong>in</strong>solvencies<br />
and weaken the <strong>in</strong>dustrial fabric, although <strong>in</strong> the<br />
long term it could have a beneficial effect for<br />
these same countries. ▣<br />
Cash flow: Tension Indicator<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
Forecasts<br />
15<br />
Forecast<br />
of economic growth and <strong>in</strong>solvencies <strong>in</strong> 2013<br />
10<br />
Belgium<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Country Growth Insolvencies<br />
Germany Q +1% q -1%<br />
Poland Q +3% Q + 11%<br />
Belgium Q + 0.2% Q + 10%<br />
France Q +0.3% Q +4%<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> q - 1.8% Q + 20%<br />
Italy q - 1.8% Q + 24%<br />
Portugal q -3% Q + 29%<br />
5<br />
0<br />
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09<br />
Sources: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> calculations, BACH database<br />
10<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
France<br />
Italy<br />
Poland<br />
Portugal<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Scale of the efforts to be made<br />
Change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods<br />
Change <strong>in</strong> supplier payment periods<br />
Days’ revenue<br />
120<br />
Forecast<br />
Days’ revenue<br />
120<br />
Forecast<br />
100<br />
Effort to be made<br />
100<br />
80<br />
80<br />
Effort to be made<br />
60<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Belgium<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
France<br />
Italy<br />
Poland<br />
Portugal<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Belgium<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
France<br />
Italy<br />
Poland<br />
Portugal<br />
0<br />
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10<br />
Sources: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> calculations, BACH database<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
EU Directive<br />
0<br />
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10<br />
Sources: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> calculations, BACH database<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
EU Directive<br />
11
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Second<br />
Focus po<strong>in</strong>t<br />
Amplitude**<br />
150<br />
120<br />
90<br />
60<br />
30<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
12<br />
What determ<strong>in</strong>es<br />
payment periods<br />
<strong>in</strong> the different sectors?<br />
A fairly marked axis of sector <strong>in</strong>ternationalisation<br />
Group 1<br />
Air transport<br />
Automobiles<br />
Pharmaceuticals<br />
Aeronautic<br />
components<br />
Group 2<br />
**<br />
Automotive<br />
components<br />
Chemicals<br />
Construction<br />
IT services<br />
0<br />
10 40 80 100<br />
Length of payment periods<br />
Group 4<br />
Group 3<br />
* The difference between the country post<strong>in</strong>g the longest payment periods for the sector and the country with the shortest<br />
payment periods for the sector.<br />
Panel of countries: Germany, Belgium, Spa<strong>in</strong>, France, Italy, United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, Sweden, Denmark and Norway<br />
** Exclud<strong>in</strong>g Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
The national data studied <strong>in</strong> the first part of this<br />
study does reflect the overall trends <strong>in</strong> a country,<br />
but not the differences <strong>in</strong> the particular situations<br />
related, for example, to bus<strong>in</strong>ess size or bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
sector.<br />
▶ Unequal barga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g power is a well-know fact<br />
of life for SMEs deal<strong>in</strong>g with very large enterprises,<br />
and it is a structural disadvantage for them.<br />
Major enterprises use their barga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g power,<br />
weaken<strong>in</strong>g SMES, <strong>in</strong> order to w<strong>in</strong> shorter client<br />
payment periods and longer supplier payment<br />
periods. This becomes more acute dur<strong>in</strong>g periods<br />
of crisis, dur<strong>in</strong>g which room for manoeuvre<br />
(access to f<strong>in</strong>ance) is more greatly reduced for the<br />
smallest firms.<br />
▶ The sector of activity effect is by contrast less<br />
well known, but the disparities are great and are<br />
<strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sically l<strong>in</strong>ked to the very nature of the activity<br />
of bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the sector, due either to the sales<br />
cycle (e.g., toys and chocolate), the production<br />
cycle (longer <strong>in</strong> public works, shorter <strong>in</strong> foods),<br />
or to the sector’s position<strong>in</strong>g (the absence of client<br />
payment periods <strong>in</strong> major retail distributors).<br />
This second part of our study will highlight other<br />
sectors that also show these disparities.
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
The longest payment periods are seen <strong>in</strong> nearly<br />
all countries <strong>in</strong> the construction and IT services<br />
sectors. The automotive sector <strong>in</strong> most countries<br />
has the least need of B2B credit. In Spa<strong>in</strong> and France,<br />
there is a difference of around 60 days between the<br />
automotive sector and IT services, while the difference<br />
is 65 days <strong>in</strong> Italy, only 30 days <strong>in</strong> Germany, and 20 days<br />
<strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom. Over the period we exam<strong>in</strong>e,<br />
we see a general convergence between payment<br />
periods, limit<strong>in</strong>g cash flow requirements.<br />
We can dist<strong>in</strong>guish four groups of sectors that present<br />
payment periods that are similar <strong>in</strong> level and<br />
amplitude.<br />
Group 1<br />
▶ Among automakers, we see a relative convergence<br />
between client payment periods and supplier<br />
payment periods, generat<strong>in</strong>g some cash flow surpluses,<br />
with the prize go<strong>in</strong>g to Italy, which is converg<strong>in</strong>g<br />
towards the other countries studied with client<br />
payment periods at 37 days, but which shows record<br />
supplier payment periods at 75 days.<br />
▶ In air transport, payment periods are overall well<br />
respected. While these have been cut by 18% <strong>in</strong> Italy,<br />
they have however exploded <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>, lengthen<strong>in</strong>g by<br />
52%. For the other countries, payment periods generally<br />
are between 20 and 40 days.<br />
Group 2<br />
▶ In France, sector round tables have helped subcontractors<br />
to even out client and supplier payment<br />
periods. These have shortened by 21%, to 54 days for<br />
client payment periods and 53 days for supplier payment<br />
periods. In the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, however, while<br />
supplier payment periods are down by 30% to 41 days,<br />
client payment periods have dropped by only 12% to<br />
68 days, generat<strong>in</strong>g a heavy cash flow requirement of<br />
26 days. Germany cont<strong>in</strong>ues to show rapid payments,<br />
with client payment periods of 36 days and supplier<br />
payment periods of 24 days. Italy for its part has the slowest<br />
payments, with 111 days for client payment<br />
periods and 96 days for supplier payments. Roughly<br />
speak<strong>in</strong>g, payment periods <strong>in</strong> Italy are twice as long<br />
as <strong>in</strong> France and three times as long as <strong>in</strong> Germany!<br />
▶ With global suppliers, the chemicals and pharmaceuticals<br />
sectors show a limited difference <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods. The chemicals sector made great<br />
efforts after the abrupt slump <strong>in</strong> activity of 2008-2009,<br />
achiev<strong>in</strong>g average client payment periods of 65 days<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2010. Particularly great efforts were made <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>,<br />
where bus<strong>in</strong>esses have cut payment periods by 30%<br />
s<strong>in</strong>ce 2006. Our study of the sector also shows big differences:<br />
Italy and Spa<strong>in</strong> allow long client payment<br />
periods, at 93 days and 67 days respectively, while they<br />
pay their suppliers at 63 days and 46 days respectively,<br />
creat<strong>in</strong>g significant cash flow requirements.<br />
This becomes even worse <strong>in</strong> the pharmaceutical sector,<br />
<strong>in</strong> both cases with cash flow requirements at 50 days.<br />
Large cash flow needs are also generated <strong>in</strong> Germany,<br />
with client payment periods of 46 days, which seem<br />
long given that supplier payment periods are 29 days. In<br />
the other countries <strong>in</strong> our study, we see a relative<br />
convergence of client and supplier payment periods<br />
with<strong>in</strong> reasonable limits from 30 days to less than 60<br />
days.<br />
▶ In the aeronautics components sector, payment<br />
periods are generally steady at between 20 and 60<br />
days, with the notable exception of Spa<strong>in</strong> where they<br />
are unusually long.<br />
Group 3<br />
▶ In IT services, key clients impose longer payment<br />
periods on suppliers <strong>in</strong> the sector, which shows fairly<br />
long payment periods generally, particularly <strong>in</strong> client<br />
payment periods, which are nearly 50 days <strong>in</strong> Germany<br />
and the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, 95 days <strong>in</strong> France, 101 days <strong>in</strong><br />
Italy and 107 days <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>. The long client payment<br />
periods and the far shorter supplier payment periods<br />
(generally between 20 and 60 days), which are fall<strong>in</strong>g<br />
apart from <strong>in</strong> France (+3% to 51 days) and <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
(+14% to 61 days) generates significant cash flow needs<br />
with<strong>in</strong> the sector and creates genu<strong>in</strong>e f<strong>in</strong>ancial fragility.<br />
Group 4<br />
▶ The highly locally based construction sector sees<br />
payment periods lengthen when the economic climate<br />
worsens, mak<strong>in</strong>g it the sector where we see the<br />
biggest differences. A prime example is Spa<strong>in</strong>, where<br />
supplier payment periods have reacted a record 157<br />
days (and where the sector has massively suffered). By<br />
contrast, <strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom client payment periods<br />
are 33 days. It must be noted that the convergence<br />
toward similar payments <strong>in</strong> these countries will take a<br />
great deal of time. ▣<br />
13
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Automobiles and<br />
automotive components:<br />
the problem for subcontractors<br />
14<br />
Relations between subcontractors and their clients<br />
have been difficult for a long time. Major<br />
contractors enjoy unchallenged barga<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g<br />
strength, benefit<strong>in</strong>g from their powerful positions<br />
to the detriment of their subcontractors and<br />
impos<strong>in</strong>g very long payment periods.<br />
We note that the automotive components sector <strong>in</strong><br />
France (number two <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>, beh<strong>in</strong>d Germany)<br />
accounts for more than 40% of subcontract<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
the country.<br />
Acceptable payment periods <strong>in</strong> the<br />
automotive sector.<br />
This is the sector with the shortest client payment<br />
periods (at 37 days on average), proof of the cooperation<br />
between major contractors and subcontractors,<br />
notably <strong>in</strong> Northern <strong>Europe</strong>. With the implementation<br />
of <strong>in</strong>dustry round tables <strong>in</strong> France, the<br />
sector is work<strong>in</strong>g to harmonise payment periods <strong>in</strong><br />
order to avoid harm<strong>in</strong>g subcontractors. A very good<br />
example is automotive components, with supplier<br />
payment periods of 53 days.<br />
With supplier payment periods longer than client<br />
payment periods, the automotive sector shows cash<br />
flow surpluses of vary<strong>in</strong>g sizes, depend<strong>in</strong>g on the<br />
country. However the countries where these surpluses<br />
are the biggest are those where supplier payment<br />
periods are much longer than average.<br />
We can dist<strong>in</strong>guish two different groups of countries<br />
<strong>in</strong> the auto sector.<br />
▶ The good students of Northern <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
At the top of the class are Germany and the United<br />
K<strong>in</strong>gdom, with client payment periods of 22 and 31<br />
days’revenue respectively, and supplier payment<br />
periods of 34 days <strong>in</strong> both cases. The cash flow surpluses<br />
<strong>in</strong> 2010 were the equivalent of 13 days’revenue<br />
<strong>in</strong> Germany and 3 days’revenue <strong>in</strong> The United<br />
K<strong>in</strong>gdom.<br />
In France there was a sharp fall <strong>in</strong> payment periods <strong>in</strong><br />
2007, followed by very sharp fall <strong>in</strong> 2008, when client<br />
payment periods dropped to 32 days and supplier<br />
payment periods fell to 41 days, <strong>in</strong> anticipation of the<br />
implementation of LME.<br />
However, 2009 saw a clear lengthen<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods, with client payment periods <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g by<br />
50%. This was a response to the crisis by automakers<br />
to support their concessionaires, the latter heavily<br />
burdened with stocks of unsold vehicles.<br />
In 2010, payment periods shortened aga<strong>in</strong>, dropp<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to 41 days for client payment periods and 49 days for<br />
supplier payment periods, thanks to good cash flow<br />
management, show<strong>in</strong>g an 8-day surplus.<br />
▶ The countries <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong> as well as<br />
Belgium are draw<strong>in</strong>g on supplier credit.<br />
The countries <strong>in</strong> Southern <strong>Europe</strong> as well as Belgium<br />
are draw<strong>in</strong>g on supplier credit to ensure a positive<br />
cash flow to offset their weak cash flows or low shareholders’equity.<br />
Italy shows a significant cash flow surplus, generated<br />
by very long supplier payment periods (at 75 days,<br />
more than twice as long as <strong>in</strong> Germany). At the same<br />
time, client payment periods there are 37 days, with<strong>in</strong><br />
the <strong>Europe</strong>an average, generat<strong>in</strong>g a very large positive<br />
cash flow for Italian automakers.<br />
The <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive, whose aim is to reduce and<br />
control payment periods (to a maximum of 60 days)<br />
will therefore be hard to implement <strong>in</strong> Italy <strong>in</strong> this<br />
sector.<br />
◾◾◾
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment periods: automobiles<br />
60<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
US<br />
42<br />
SE<br />
19<br />
ES<br />
48<br />
NO<br />
45 IT<br />
37 BEL<br />
41<br />
FR<br />
41<br />
DK<br />
40<br />
DE<br />
21<br />
GB<br />
31<br />
0<br />
-110% -60% -10% 0% 10%<br />
40% 60%<br />
Change<br />
Supplier payment periods: automobiles<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
US<br />
79 IT<br />
75<br />
FR<br />
50<br />
10<br />
Change<br />
0<br />
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Indicator of change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods: automobiles<br />
NO<br />
47<br />
ES<br />
56<br />
SE<br />
37<br />
BE<br />
69<br />
GB<br />
34<br />
DK<br />
45<br />
DE<br />
34<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator: automobiles<br />
50<br />
20<br />
40<br />
10<br />
30<br />
20<br />
0<br />
10<br />
-10<br />
0<br />
-20<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Belgium<br />
-30<br />
-40<br />
-50<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Belgium<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client and supplier payment period gap: automobiles<br />
Italy<br />
0<br />
22<br />
Belgium<br />
4<br />
16<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
3<br />
11<br />
France<br />
-3<br />
5<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Germany<br />
-19<br />
-19<br />
-15<br />
-5<br />
-25 20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25<br />
Client payment period difference from average of 37 days<br />
Supplier payment period difference from average of 53 days<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
15
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
◾◾◾<br />
Automotive component makers<br />
and SMEs <strong>in</strong> the face of the large<br />
automakers: what negotiat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
power do subcontractors have?<br />
▶ The scissors effect between client payment<br />
periods and supplier payment periods, with subcontractors<br />
com<strong>in</strong>g out the losers, is a direct result of the<br />
power of automakers over their subcontractor suppliers.<br />
In France, given the many problems encountered by<br />
subcontractors, measures were adopted through a<br />
code of good practice of client/supplier relations for<br />
subcontract<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the auto sector (see Annex I).<br />
<strong>in</strong> a significant <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> work<strong>in</strong>g capital requirements.<br />
▶ In Italy, the cash flow requirements are 14 days,<br />
with the longest client payment periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong><br />
(110 days, twice as long as <strong>in</strong> France and three times<br />
longer than <strong>in</strong> Germany), offsett<strong>in</strong>g once aga<strong>in</strong> very<br />
long supplier payment periods, at 96 days’revenue.<br />
Italy has not implemented a code of good practice<br />
that could, as <strong>in</strong> France, considerably improve relations<br />
between major contractors and subcontractors.<br />
We note <strong>in</strong> the case of Italy an evident f<strong>in</strong>ancial fragility<br />
when it comes to implement<strong>in</strong>g the new<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an Directive on payment periods.<br />
With its highly structured bus<strong>in</strong>ess sectors, Germany<br />
has no need to implement codes of good practice.<br />
▶ For the auto components <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> France, there<br />
has been a clear improvement <strong>in</strong> payment periods.<br />
Indeed, client payment periods <strong>in</strong> the <strong>in</strong>dustry had<br />
been ris<strong>in</strong>g consistently after 2000, to 110 days <strong>in</strong><br />
2004 (source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong>).<br />
The application of the code of good practice, comb<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
with the <strong>in</strong>troduction of the LME, obliged automakers<br />
to move to payment periods compatible with<br />
supplier payment periods. We thus saw a proportional<br />
contraction <strong>in</strong> payment periods <strong>in</strong> 2010, to 54<br />
days for client payment periods and to 53 days for<br />
supplier payment periods, help<strong>in</strong>g subcontractors to<br />
ma<strong>in</strong>ta<strong>in</strong> low cash flow requirements.<br />
In Germany, while payment periods are the shortest,<br />
the cash flow requirements are however higher than<br />
<strong>in</strong> France.<br />
▶ In Spa<strong>in</strong> and <strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, there is a scissors<br />
effect between client payment periods (83 days<br />
and 68 days respectively) and supplier payment<br />
periods (52 days and 41 days respectively), result<strong>in</strong>g<br />
▶ Cyclical factors: for major contractors, purchas<strong>in</strong>g<br />
operations should, with recovery, br<strong>in</strong>g value added,<br />
as subcontractors should produce equivalent or<br />
more <strong>in</strong>novative quality at a lower cost; extreme<br />
concentration among suppliers makes negotiations<br />
difficult or even simply unlikely to bear fruit.<br />
▶ Structural factors: with client payment periods<br />
down by half <strong>in</strong> 2010 to 54 days’revenue, the auto<br />
components <strong>in</strong>dustry <strong>in</strong> France has been one of the<br />
major beneficiaries of the June 2006 signature of the<br />
code of good practice.<br />
In order to adapt to the new <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive<br />
com<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to force <strong>in</strong> March 2013, Italy will have to<br />
make the greatest efforts to shorten payment<br />
periods, and this will not only be a real challenge, but<br />
also will pose risks to bus<strong>in</strong>ess cash flows. ▣<br />
16
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment periods: automotive components<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
GB<br />
68<br />
ES<br />
83<br />
SE<br />
51<br />
-150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100%<br />
Supplier payment periods: automotive components<br />
IT<br />
111<br />
FR<br />
54<br />
NO<br />
40<br />
DE<br />
36<br />
BE<br />
67<br />
DK<br />
55<br />
Change<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
GB<br />
41<br />
IT<br />
96<br />
FR<br />
53<br />
53<br />
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
NO<br />
27<br />
ES<br />
52<br />
SE<br />
39<br />
BE<br />
49<br />
DE<br />
36<br />
DK<br />
20<br />
Change<br />
Indicator of change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods:<br />
automotive components<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator:<br />
automotive components<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
0<br />
10<br />
-20<br />
-40<br />
-60<br />
-80<br />
2007<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Belgium<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
-20<br />
2006 2007<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Belgium<br />
Client and supplier payment period gap:<br />
automotive components<br />
Italy<br />
44<br />
41<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Belgium<br />
-1<br />
-4<br />
-3<br />
13<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
-11<br />
-2<br />
France<br />
-28<br />
Germany -34<br />
-16<br />
0<br />
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50<br />
Client payment period difference from average of 37 days<br />
Client payment period difference from average of 37 days<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
17
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Air transport: an <strong>in</strong>strument<br />
of globalisation but marked<br />
by regional differences<br />
The air transport sector <strong>in</strong> our studies is comprised<br />
of passenger transport and airfreight traffic.<br />
From the data we can observe a number of sectoral<br />
and regional characteristics.<br />
Relatively short payment periods<br />
<strong>in</strong> air transport compared to other<br />
sectors.<br />
▶ Two factors expla<strong>in</strong> this feature, for example on<br />
accounts receivable<br />
> The passenger segment (78% of turnover <strong>in</strong> the<br />
sector worldwide <strong>in</strong> 2011) is a B2C (bus<strong>in</strong>ess-toconsumer)<br />
activity, and, due to a high proportion of<br />
payments be<strong>in</strong>g made prior to travel, does not generate<br />
significant accounts receivables <strong>in</strong> airl<strong>in</strong>e<br />
accounts.<br />
> Freight transport is subject to legally mandatory<br />
payment periods of no more than 30 days (legal<br />
constra<strong>in</strong>ts).<br />
Also note that when carriers buy their aircraft, this is<br />
carried out through medium to long-term f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
which allows them to make staged payments to aeronautics<br />
constructors dur<strong>in</strong>g the course of the production<br />
of aircraft and then f<strong>in</strong>alise payment once<br />
the aircraft are delivered.<br />
▶ Client payment periods structurally longer <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Europe</strong> (44 days’revenue) than <strong>in</strong> the United States<br />
(22 days).<br />
This is due to two fundamentally different economic<br />
models. The major United States airl<strong>in</strong>es, follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
the difficulties encountered <strong>in</strong> the previous<br />
decade, have clearly refocused on the passenger segment<br />
and heavily reduced (or abandoned) related<br />
activities, to the benefit of domestic or foreign specialist<br />
operators. This nearly ‘pure player’strategy of<br />
the United States companies, look<strong>in</strong>g to concentrate<br />
their resources to optimise their core bus<strong>in</strong>ess,<br />
stands <strong>in</strong> contrast to the broader operational portfolios<br />
of their <strong>Europe</strong>an counterparts. Of the latter, the<br />
major players can, to vary<strong>in</strong>g degrees, shelter operations<br />
as diverse as passenger traffic (a m<strong>in</strong>imum<br />
75% of turnover) as well as freight, ma<strong>in</strong>tenance (to<br />
other airl<strong>in</strong>es, <strong>in</strong> addition to their own fleets), cater<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and IT services. This (highly relative) diversification<br />
is part of a very different economic model –<br />
one designed <strong>in</strong> order to, among other th<strong>in</strong>gs, ‘saturate’the<br />
use of their exist<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>frastructure (generally<br />
very costly material assets) via diverse operations,<br />
and <strong>in</strong> order to ensure good ma<strong>in</strong>tenance of sensitive<br />
equipment, as well as to <strong>in</strong>tegrate activities that<br />
are less cyclical and/or new avenues of profitability.<br />
This partial orientation towards buoy<strong>in</strong>g B2B activities<br />
automatically translates <strong>in</strong>to lengthened payment<br />
periods for the airl<strong>in</strong>es’accounts receivable.<br />
▶ Dur<strong>in</strong>g the 2008-2009 crisis, very substantial<br />
fluctuations <strong>in</strong> accounts payable <strong>in</strong> the United<br />
States (from 46 days <strong>in</strong> 2008 to 29 days <strong>in</strong> 2009);<br />
less <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> (from 35 days’revenue <strong>in</strong> 2009 to 38<br />
days <strong>in</strong> 2009).<br />
In a widespread context of fall<strong>in</strong>g activity, <strong>in</strong>herently<br />
stemm<strong>in</strong>g from the world economic downturn, the<br />
difference of magnitude <strong>in</strong> these two markets can be<br />
expla<strong>in</strong>ed by the concomitant variations <strong>in</strong> oil prices.<br />
We have to remember the crucial impact of kerosene<br />
prices at that time on the fortunes of airl<strong>in</strong>es. Indeed,<br />
fuel prices account for 30% to 35% of their operat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
costs and thus a significant share of their accounts<br />
payable. In face of the sector’s <strong>in</strong>tr<strong>in</strong>sic exposure to<br />
this factor, different choices were made on opposite<br />
sides of the Atlantic. <strong>Europe</strong>an carriers, for their part,<br />
chose to use f<strong>in</strong>ancial <strong>in</strong>struments to cover a generally<br />
large part of their fuel purchases, which expla<strong>in</strong>s the<br />
relative stability – or more correctly the more limited<br />
scale – of the changes their accounts payable, despite<br />
the turbulence <strong>in</strong> oil (and thus jet fuel) prices. In the<br />
United States, by contrast, f<strong>in</strong>ancial cover was<br />
undertaken far less – or <strong>in</strong> cases not at all – be<strong>in</strong>g<br />
deemed too expensive, and supplies were obta<strong>in</strong>ed<br />
on spot markets, thus expla<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g the size of American<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses’accounts payable follow<strong>in</strong>g the course of<br />
oil prices.<br />
18
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment periods: air transport<br />
60<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
ES<br />
34<br />
IT<br />
58<br />
IT<br />
29<br />
GB<br />
17<br />
0<br />
Change<br />
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%<br />
Supplier payment periods: air transport<br />
US<br />
22<br />
FR<br />
44<br />
DE<br />
31<br />
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
FR<br />
44<br />
DE<br />
29<br />
US<br />
21<br />
GB<br />
25<br />
ES<br />
62<br />
Change<br />
Indicator of change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods: air transport<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator: air transport<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
-10<br />
0<br />
-20<br />
-40<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
United States<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
-15<br />
-20<br />
-25<br />
-30<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United States<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
S<strong>in</strong>ce then, the strategies have evolved, with<br />
<strong>Europe</strong>an companies generally hav<strong>in</strong>g<br />
reconsidered the extent and especially the duration<br />
of their cover operations.<br />
▶ A North-South divide <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
The air transport sector reflects the characteristics<br />
of a country’s domestic economic environment,<br />
and hence is no exception to show<strong>in</strong>g longer payment<br />
periods <strong>in</strong> the south of <strong>Europe</strong> than <strong>in</strong> the<br />
north. Thus, supplier payment periods are 25<br />
days’revenue <strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, 31 days <strong>in</strong><br />
Germany, 44 days <strong>in</strong> France, 58 days <strong>in</strong> Italy and 63<br />
days <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>. ▣<br />
19
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Chemicals: supply<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>dustries<br />
and support<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>dustrial fabric<br />
via client credit<br />
Between 2003 and 2005, the chemicals sector<br />
went through the bottom of a cycle. It followed this<br />
with large-scale restructur<strong>in</strong>g among operators<br />
that at times disrupted output flows. In 2009, the<br />
sector suffered the impact of the abrupt economic<br />
slowdown on its clientele, especially <strong>in</strong> the auto<br />
and construction sectors. This gave way to the<br />
appearance of <strong>in</strong>put bottlenecks that <strong>in</strong> turn<br />
brought an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> payment periods <strong>in</strong> the<br />
chemicals sectors of nearly every country.<br />
A limited variation <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods.<br />
▶ Generally, one can say that enormous efforts were<br />
made <strong>in</strong> the chemicals sector to manage cash flow<br />
requirements. It was rather as if the violent downturn<br />
<strong>in</strong> activity experienced <strong>in</strong> 2008-2009 conv<strong>in</strong>ced<br />
operators to set right the way they were f<strong>in</strong>anc<strong>in</strong>g<br />
their operational cycles <strong>in</strong> order to not (or no longer)<br />
undergo the horrid consequences of suddenly<br />
runn<strong>in</strong>g out of cash.<br />
The improvement <strong>in</strong> manag<strong>in</strong>g cash flow<br />
requirements <strong>in</strong> the French chemicals sector has<br />
been genu<strong>in</strong>e. The sector’s cash flow requirements of<br />
8 days’revenue seems the lowest <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> after The<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom (3 days). With client payment<br />
periods fall<strong>in</strong>g by 8% <strong>in</strong> 2008 and supplier payment<br />
periods by 12%, the French chemical <strong>in</strong>dustry has<br />
come out well, notwithstand<strong>in</strong>g a slight <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong><br />
payment periods <strong>in</strong> 2009. In 2010, payment periods<br />
dropped below 60 days, with client payment periods<br />
of 58.7 days’revenue and supplier payment periods at<br />
50.9 days, or a total shr<strong>in</strong>kage of payment periods of<br />
11% between 2006 and 2010.<br />
shows once aga<strong>in</strong> a stable and effective management<br />
of operat<strong>in</strong>g requirements. The <strong>in</strong>come on cash of the<br />
good performers <strong>in</strong> the sector is surely the result of a<br />
strategy aimed at cement<strong>in</strong>g the loyalty of their clients<br />
and suppliers via long payment periods for their<br />
customers and a determ<strong>in</strong>ation to pay their suppliers<br />
relatively quickly.<br />
▶ We should note the s<strong>in</strong>gular efforts made by Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>in</strong> its policy of cutt<strong>in</strong>g payment periods with<strong>in</strong> its<br />
chemicals sector. Compared to 2006, when client<br />
payment periods were 95 days, Spanish bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
have reduced the figure by 30%. <strong>Payment</strong> behaviour<br />
<strong>in</strong> Belgium is close to that of France: reasonable<br />
payment periods and good cash flow management.<br />
Norway operates with<strong>in</strong> the logic of an <strong>in</strong>tegrated<br />
sector, well manag<strong>in</strong>g its payment periods and cash<br />
flows. Indeed, despite a slight <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods <strong>in</strong> 2009, the figures are still good, with client<br />
payment periods of 40 days and supplier payment<br />
periods of 31 days, and cash flow requirements of 9<br />
days.<br />
▶ Italy’s heavy cash flow deficits directly result from<br />
its very long client payment periods, even despite<br />
their shorten<strong>in</strong>g by 8% s<strong>in</strong>ce 2006. At 93 days, these<br />
are well beyond the limits of the <strong>Europe</strong>an Directive<br />
enter<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong>to force <strong>in</strong> March 2013.<br />
▶ In the United States, the chemical <strong>in</strong>dustry pays its<br />
suppliers an average of 40 days after <strong>in</strong>voices are<br />
issued and gets paid by its clients with a payment<br />
period on average equal to 61 days’revenue, result<strong>in</strong>g<br />
<strong>in</strong> cash flow requirements of 20 days’revenue. ▣<br />
▶ With shorter client and supplier payment periods<br />
and lower cash flow requirements than <strong>in</strong> other<br />
countries, the chemicals sector <strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
20
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment periods: chemicals<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
ES<br />
67<br />
GB<br />
30<br />
FR<br />
59<br />
IT<br />
93<br />
SE<br />
32<br />
DE<br />
46<br />
NO<br />
40<br />
DK<br />
57<br />
BE<br />
58<br />
US<br />
61<br />
Change<br />
20<br />
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%<br />
Supplier payment periods: chemicals<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
IT<br />
63<br />
SE<br />
24<br />
FR<br />
51<br />
ES<br />
46<br />
DE<br />
29<br />
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%<br />
NO<br />
31<br />
BE<br />
47<br />
GB<br />
28<br />
DK<br />
29<br />
US<br />
41<br />
Change<br />
Indicateur Indicator of change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods: chemicals<br />
20<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator: chemicals<br />
50<br />
15<br />
10<br />
40<br />
5<br />
30<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
20<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
-10<br />
-15<br />
Italy<br />
United States<br />
Belgium<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
10<br />
Italy<br />
United States<br />
Belgium<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Norway<br />
Norway<br />
-20<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
0<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client and supplier payment period gap: chemicals<br />
Italy<br />
25<br />
44<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Belgium<br />
France<br />
7<br />
8<br />
10<br />
12<br />
10<br />
18<br />
Germany<br />
-9<br />
-2<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
-18<br />
-11<br />
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50<br />
Client payment period difference from average of 37 days<br />
Supplier payment period difference from average of 53 days<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
21
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Pharmaceuticals:<br />
no cash flow problems<br />
Supplier payment periods seem generally shorter<br />
than client payment periods <strong>in</strong> the<br />
pharmaceuticals <strong>in</strong>dustry. Depend<strong>in</strong>g on the<br />
country, however, we see an uneven picture <strong>in</strong> how<br />
payment periods are develop<strong>in</strong>g. The<br />
laboratories’advantage of enjoy<strong>in</strong>g comfortable<br />
cash flow surpluses from their operations resides <strong>in</strong><br />
their ability to pay their suppliers more quickly and<br />
thus benefit from f<strong>in</strong>ancial discounts. This is more<br />
profitable than plac<strong>in</strong>g their funds at low rates of<br />
<strong>in</strong>terest.<br />
In France the rate of non-payment and <strong>in</strong>solvencies<br />
<strong>in</strong> the chemicals sector overall is markedly higher<br />
than <strong>in</strong> the pharmaceuticals segment.<br />
▶ <strong>Payment</strong> periods are well below 60 days <strong>in</strong> the<br />
sector <strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, Germany and<br />
Denmark. The very short payments benefit<strong>in</strong>g their<br />
suppliers, which even occasion cash flow requirements<br />
<strong>in</strong> Germany and Denmark, is a means of<br />
consolidat<strong>in</strong>g their ties with their partners, allow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
them to benefit from, among other th<strong>in</strong>gs, f<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />
discounts.<br />
▶ By contrast, <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong> (-50), Italy (-50) and <strong>in</strong> the<br />
United States (-55), the <strong>in</strong>dustry suffers from a harmful<br />
scissors effect. The length of payment periods that<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses grant their customers is very generous,<br />
when it is not the result of (as <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>) the f<strong>in</strong>ancial<br />
woes of their hospital clientele. Unlike <strong>in</strong> the United<br />
States, however, Spa<strong>in</strong> and Italy are not relax<strong>in</strong>g their<br />
efforts to attempt to shorten payment periods (-11%<br />
and -6% s<strong>in</strong>ce 2006 for client payment periods <strong>in</strong><br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> and Italy respectively, compared to +49% <strong>in</strong> the<br />
United States).<br />
▶ Cash flow management by United States pharmaceutical<br />
companies seems notwithstand<strong>in</strong>g driven<br />
by a more aggressive commercial policy.<br />
Lengthen<strong>in</strong>g clients’payment periods is also a way of<br />
re<strong>in</strong>forc<strong>in</strong>g their loyalty and help<strong>in</strong>g them to avoid<br />
difficult bank lend<strong>in</strong>g conditions – <strong>in</strong> sum, the expression<br />
of a policy more f<strong>in</strong>ancial than <strong>in</strong>dustrial <strong>in</strong><br />
nature on the part of the United States pharmaceuticals<br />
sector. The length of these payment periods,<br />
which cont<strong>in</strong>ue to grow, does put the United States<br />
at the bottom of the class <strong>in</strong> this sector <strong>in</strong> terms of the<br />
length of payment periods and of efforts made to<br />
attempt reduc<strong>in</strong>g them (client payment periods up<br />
by 49% and supplier payment periods up by 43%).<br />
▶ Apart from a rebound <strong>in</strong> payment periods <strong>in</strong> 2009,<br />
the French pharmaceutical <strong>in</strong>dustry, fifth <strong>in</strong> the rank<strong>in</strong>gs,<br />
is not lett<strong>in</strong>g up on its efforts to shorten them.<br />
In 2010, these were down by 10 days aga<strong>in</strong>st 2006,<br />
with cash flow needs of 14 days’revenue, well below<br />
the figure for Germany (30 days), Spa<strong>in</strong> (49 days),<br />
Italy (50 days) the United States (55 days) and<br />
Denmark (14 days). Committed to cutt<strong>in</strong>g average<br />
payment periods, the pharmaceuticals sector <strong>in</strong><br />
Frances does not benefit however from the advantage<br />
it ga<strong>in</strong>s by obta<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g discounts <strong>in</strong> return for rapid<br />
payment to its suppliers. ▣<br />
22
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment periods: pharmaceuticals<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
FR<br />
66<br />
ES<br />
85<br />
IT<br />
90<br />
GB<br />
36<br />
DK<br />
38<br />
BE<br />
63<br />
NO<br />
25<br />
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%<br />
SE<br />
11<br />
DE<br />
46<br />
US<br />
93<br />
Change<br />
Supplier payment periods: pharmaceuticals<br />
70<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
FR<br />
52<br />
IT<br />
40<br />
NO<br />
16<br />
DE<br />
16<br />
BE<br />
54<br />
DK<br />
20<br />
GB<br />
31<br />
ES<br />
35<br />
SE<br />
11<br />
US<br />
38<br />
Change<br />
0<br />
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Indicator of change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods: pharmaceuticals<br />
30<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator: pharmaceuticals<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
-5<br />
-10<br />
-15<br />
-20<br />
-25<br />
-30<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United Sates<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Denmark<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United States<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Denmark<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
23
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
IT services:<br />
constra<strong>in</strong>ed by their clientele<br />
Major clients have the strong suit <strong>in</strong> their<br />
negotiations with IT services providers, result<strong>in</strong>g<br />
for the latter <strong>in</strong> large cash flow requirements that<br />
weaken bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the sector. Indeed, this is the<br />
sector hit hardest by the weight of its accounts<br />
receivable. As a result, it faces a large or very large<br />
scissors effect <strong>in</strong> every country apart from Sweden.<br />
Moreover, we see rigidity to a reduction <strong>in</strong> client<br />
payment periods.<br />
▶ Our study reveals very long client payment periods,<br />
but supplier payment periods that are reasonably<br />
good, or even low <strong>in</strong> some countries. The scissors<br />
effect <strong>in</strong> very big <strong>in</strong> every country, but with a more<br />
muted impact <strong>in</strong> Germany, the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom,<br />
Belgium and Sweden.<br />
Major clients have the advantage<br />
of the stronger position <strong>in</strong><br />
negotiations, result<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> large<br />
cash flow requirements that<br />
weaken bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the sector.<br />
▶ In France, despite the LME and a strong response<br />
by the sector to cut these payment periods by 7% from<br />
2006, client payment periods rema<strong>in</strong> long, due to<br />
major public sector customers. On the supplier side,<br />
by contrast, little advance can be expected, <strong>in</strong>asmuch<br />
as their purchases consist of <strong>in</strong>tellectual services paid<br />
for on a monthly basis, and materials that are already<br />
paid for quickly <strong>in</strong> order to improve marg<strong>in</strong>s.<br />
▶ Germany for its part is see<strong>in</strong>g a reversal <strong>in</strong> its cash<br />
flow tension <strong>in</strong>dicator that risks harm<strong>in</strong>g bus<strong>in</strong>esses<br />
<strong>in</strong> the sector. Supplier payment periods are down only<br />
slightly, as the <strong>in</strong>itial payment periods were shorter<br />
and there is a sharp separation between IT services<br />
and IT equipment <strong>in</strong> the country, unlike <strong>in</strong> France. The<br />
9% <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> client payment periods reflects<br />
weakness <strong>in</strong> demand, but Germany’s payment<br />
periods rema<strong>in</strong> among the shortest <strong>in</strong> the sector <strong>in</strong><br />
<strong>Europe</strong>.<br />
▶ The pronounced deterioration <strong>in</strong> the situation for<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the sector <strong>in</strong> the United States, and the<br />
more moderate one for those <strong>in</strong> the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
and Belgium, is due primarily to an only small decl<strong>in</strong>e<br />
<strong>in</strong> supplier payment periods and to weak demand. ▣<br />
Client and supplier payment period gap: IT services<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator: IT services<br />
80<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
17<br />
30<br />
70<br />
Italy<br />
16<br />
24<br />
60<br />
France<br />
Belgium<br />
7<br />
7<br />
15<br />
19<br />
50<br />
24<br />
Germany<br />
-24<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom -21<br />
-27<br />
-18<br />
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40<br />
Client payment period difference from average of 37 days<br />
Supplier payment period difference from average of 53 days<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
2006 2007<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United State<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
Belgium
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Aeronautic components:<br />
stability <strong>in</strong> payment periods –<br />
sign of a healthy sector<br />
The sample on which we base our conclusions <strong>in</strong><br />
this study is drawn for civil and military aeronautics<br />
activities <strong>in</strong> the different countries exam<strong>in</strong>ed.<br />
▶ What sets this sector apart is the extremely high<br />
level of concentration among aeronautics constructors<br />
both <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong> and the United States, whose<br />
levels of activity set the tone for subcontract<strong>in</strong>g. At<br />
the end of the cha<strong>in</strong>, civil aviation constructors (bus<strong>in</strong>ess<br />
or commercial aircraft, essentially <strong>in</strong> the zones<br />
exam<strong>in</strong>ed) benefit from advances paid by the airl<strong>in</strong>es<br />
order<strong>in</strong>g aircraft, staged from the sign<strong>in</strong>g of contracts<br />
until delivery, <strong>in</strong> order to f<strong>in</strong>ance the production cycle<br />
(with very high <strong>in</strong>ventories and exposure). Moreover,<br />
at times there are payments on account, higher upstream<br />
<strong>in</strong> the cha<strong>in</strong>, help<strong>in</strong>g to ease cash flows.<br />
With the notable exception of<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong>, the last three years have<br />
seen relative stability <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods.<br />
▶ France, however, seems to show the impact of the<br />
entry <strong>in</strong>to force of the LME, with supplier payment<br />
periods fall<strong>in</strong>g from 77 days <strong>in</strong> 2008 to 49 days <strong>in</strong><br />
2010, while <strong>in</strong> the United States, 2008 reflected the<br />
destabilisation <strong>in</strong> the sector brought about by the<br />
long strike at Boe<strong>in</strong>g. This overall resistance, <strong>in</strong> the<br />
face of the difficult economic situation that affected<br />
all <strong>in</strong>dustrial sectors, is the sign of the excellent health<br />
of the commercial aviation sector, buoyed by nearly<br />
constantly <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g production, by contrast with<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>ess aviation, which was seriously affected by fall<strong>in</strong>g<br />
production and order books over the same<br />
period.<br />
▶ Not contradict<strong>in</strong>g the dist<strong>in</strong>ction between<br />
Northern and Southern <strong>Europe</strong>, already well demonstrated<br />
<strong>in</strong> many sectors, and despite the convergence<br />
<strong>in</strong> the sector towards a restricted number of customers,<br />
the longest payment periods are <strong>in</strong> Italy (with<br />
supplier payment periods of 60 days’revenue <strong>in</strong><br />
2010) and especially Spa<strong>in</strong> (131 days <strong>in</strong> 2010). This<br />
situation is grounded <strong>in</strong> local practices but is also<br />
clearly due to the domestic economic environment<br />
– particularly <strong>in</strong> the case of the big lengthen<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong><br />
Spa<strong>in</strong>, where supplier payment periods doubled between<br />
2008 and 2010. Operators <strong>in</strong> both these countries<br />
are thus exposed to penalis<strong>in</strong>g consequences<br />
from the approach<strong>in</strong>g application of the <strong>Europe</strong>an<br />
Directive. ▣<br />
Client payment periods: aeronautic components<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
160<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
IT<br />
67<br />
IT<br />
60<br />
GB<br />
40<br />
ES<br />
131<br />
FR<br />
65<br />
FR<br />
49<br />
US<br />
42<br />
ES<br />
153<br />
DE<br />
20<br />
Change<br />
0<br />
-30% -10% 10% 30% 50%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Supplier payment periods: aeronautic components<br />
-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
GB<br />
44<br />
US<br />
67<br />
DE<br />
51<br />
Change<br />
25
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Construction: the sector<br />
with the greatest disparities<br />
<strong>Payment</strong> periods <strong>in</strong> large part reflect the particular<br />
economic environment of the country <strong>in</strong> question.<br />
This is a domestic sector <strong>in</strong> with<br />
exceptional payment periods <strong>in</strong><br />
some countries.<br />
> In France, the sector benefits from derogation <strong>in</strong><br />
payment periods.<br />
Nonetheless, efforts are needed to shorten payment<br />
periods. In fact, on 14 February, the then M<strong>in</strong>ister <strong>in</strong><br />
charge of consumption, Frédéric Lefebvre, announced<br />
an <strong>in</strong>tensification of monitor<strong>in</strong>g measures <strong>in</strong><br />
order to reduce payment periods deemed to be too<br />
long. In 2012, the sector is supposed to beg<strong>in</strong> post<strong>in</strong>g<br />
payment periods with<strong>in</strong> the LME norms (45 days<br />
from the end of the month or 60 days from the<br />
<strong>in</strong>voice date). However, accord<strong>in</strong>g to the M<strong>in</strong>ister, the<br />
reality is quite different, with payment periods runn<strong>in</strong>g<br />
between 76 and 92 days. The then government<br />
wanted to <strong>in</strong>troduce an amendment to the legislation<br />
that would allow entrepreneurs to suspend work<br />
<strong>in</strong> the event of late payments on <strong>in</strong>termediate <strong>in</strong>stalment<br />
<strong>in</strong>voices, the aim be<strong>in</strong>g to end the grow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
number of cases of the law be<strong>in</strong>g circumvented. Even<br />
though the effects of the LME and derogation agreements<br />
are impact<strong>in</strong>g on payment periods, it is hard<br />
<strong>in</strong> this sector to reduce client payment periods due to<br />
the nature of the clientele (<strong>in</strong>dividuals, the State and<br />
state-owned enterprises <strong>in</strong> the sector). By our estimates,<br />
this impacts negatively on bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the<br />
sector.<br />
> Late payments are frequent <strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>, despite<br />
already long contractual payment periods, and only a<br />
small scal<strong>in</strong>g back of extremely long client payment<br />
periods has been achieved, by around only half as<br />
much (-10%) as was achieved <strong>in</strong> Germany (-16%).<br />
> In Italy, the construction sector is made up of many<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses with low shareholders’capital, and the<br />
weakness <strong>in</strong> demand has translated <strong>in</strong>to long<br />
payment periods and a sharp <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> cash flow<br />
requirements.<br />
> In the United K<strong>in</strong>gdom, public <strong>in</strong>tervention helped<br />
susta<strong>in</strong> activity <strong>in</strong> the construction sector but acted to<br />
slow the reduction <strong>in</strong> client payment periods. The<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom shows a relatively coord<strong>in</strong>ated<br />
reduction <strong>in</strong> payment periods, at close to the average.<br />
> In Belgium, bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the build<strong>in</strong>g and civil<br />
eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g sector are unable to meet the client<br />
payment periods imposed by the authorities, hold<strong>in</strong>g<br />
back reductions <strong>in</strong> supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong><br />
response. Government authorities and especially<br />
local authorities pay very late, a trend that is<br />
accentuat<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
> In the United States, we see an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> supplier<br />
payment periods (+18%), due to a fall <strong>in</strong> demand and<br />
the large number of residences for sale. Client<br />
payment periods have also risen considerably (+46%)<br />
<strong>in</strong> this extremely poor market environment, on top of<br />
which it is also difficult for prices of new-build hous<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to rise. ▣<br />
> In Germany, the strict application of late payment<br />
penalties allows a better result than does the LME as it<br />
is applied <strong>in</strong> France. As a result, payment periods are<br />
half as long as they are for French bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the<br />
sector. We see a coord<strong>in</strong>ated reduction <strong>in</strong> payment<br />
periods and <strong>in</strong> cash flow requirements <strong>in</strong> the German<br />
construction market, now lacklustre primarily for<br />
demographic reasons.<br />
26
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment periods: construction<br />
Client payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
DE<br />
41<br />
SE<br />
47<br />
ES<br />
174<br />
BE<br />
82<br />
FR<br />
87<br />
NO<br />
63<br />
GB<br />
33<br />
IT<br />
127<br />
DK<br />
57<br />
US<br />
53<br />
0<br />
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%<br />
Change<br />
Supplier payment periods: construction<br />
Supplier payment periods <strong>in</strong> days’ revenue, 2010<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
BE<br />
70<br />
0<br />
-80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20%<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
SE<br />
27<br />
FR<br />
57<br />
DE<br />
28<br />
IT<br />
114<br />
GB<br />
38<br />
ES<br />
157<br />
DK<br />
38<br />
NO<br />
33<br />
US<br />
43<br />
Change<br />
Indicator of change <strong>in</strong> client payment periods: construction<br />
25<br />
20<br />
Cash flow Tension Indicator: construction<br />
40<br />
35<br />
15<br />
30<br />
10<br />
5<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
0<br />
10<br />
-5<br />
-10<br />
-15<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United States<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
5<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
France<br />
Germany<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
Italy<br />
United States<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
-20<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
Belgium<br />
-10<br />
2006<br />
2007<br />
2008<br />
2009<br />
2010<br />
Belgium<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client and supplier payment period gap: construction<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong><br />
109<br />
113<br />
Italy<br />
66<br />
66<br />
Belgium<br />
France<br />
9<br />
22<br />
21<br />
26<br />
Germany<br />
-20<br />
-20<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom<br />
-28<br />
-10<br />
-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Client payment period difference from average of 37 days<br />
Supplier payment period difference from average of 53 days<br />
27
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Four determ<strong>in</strong>ants<br />
to note<br />
▶ There are four determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g factors<br />
expla<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g these disparities between sectors:<br />
> 1. The organisation of the sectors themselves, an example be<strong>in</strong>g the<br />
round table <strong>in</strong> the automotive components sector <strong>in</strong> France, which<br />
enabled subcontractors to even out client and supplier payment<br />
periods.<br />
> 2. When the suppliers are global, sectors such as chemicals benefit<br />
from a limited variation <strong>in</strong> payment periods.<br />
Comparison between<br />
Germany-France<br />
> 3. The health of the sector, an example be<strong>in</strong>g the construction sector<br />
<strong>in</strong> Spa<strong>in</strong>, which shows the difficulties undergone because of the<br />
crisis.<br />
> 4. The negotiat<strong>in</strong>g strength of big clients and big suppliers who<br />
impose longer payment periods, such as <strong>in</strong> the IT services sector.<br />
▶ <strong>Payment</strong> periods by sector<br />
Germany<br />
Aeronautic<br />
components<br />
Automobiles<br />
National<br />
average<br />
Air transport<br />
Automotive<br />
components<br />
Construction<br />
Chemicals<br />
Pharmaceuticals<br />
IT services<br />
15 days 35 55<br />
France<br />
Automobiles<br />
Air transport<br />
Automotive<br />
components<br />
National<br />
average<br />
Chemicals<br />
Aeronautic<br />
components<br />
Pharmaceuticals<br />
Construction<br />
IT services<br />
40 days 60 80 100<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
28
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Annexes<br />
Annex I<br />
▶ Law on the Modernisation of the Economy<br />
(LME) and sector round tables <strong>in</strong> France<br />
Round tables <strong>in</strong> the automotive components sector<br />
In France: the code of good practice of28 June 2006 allows for balanced and more last<strong>in</strong>g and harmonious<br />
client/supplier relations through the sector, where the client must:<br />
> send a late payment penalty without the supplier hav<strong>in</strong>g to request it<br />
> not alter the payment term for reasons not set out <strong>in</strong> the contract (notably aris<strong>in</strong>g from <strong>in</strong>ternal fail<strong>in</strong>gs<br />
<strong>in</strong> its adm<strong>in</strong>istrative departments)<br />
> furnish a means of payment that can be mobilised or f<strong>in</strong>anced to the supplier who requests it and do<br />
so with<strong>in</strong> 20 days of receiv<strong>in</strong>g the <strong>in</strong>voice, <strong>in</strong> the absence of any litigation<br />
LME <strong>in</strong> pharmaceuticals<br />
Follow<strong>in</strong>g the implementation of the LME of 2008<br />
<strong>in</strong> France, subject to the decree of 22 September,<br />
trade associations represent<strong>in</strong>g French pharmacies<br />
signed an accord with the trade association of<br />
French pharmaceutical manufacturers (LEEM) to<br />
be applied gradually to payments for non-prescription<br />
drugs, which account for 10% of the pharmaceuticals<br />
market.<br />
Accord<strong>in</strong>g to the AFIPA, the trade body that represents<br />
the self-medication medic<strong>in</strong>es <strong>in</strong>dustry,<br />
payment periods for non-prescription medic<strong>in</strong>es<br />
were much longer than for other medic<strong>in</strong>es, runn<strong>in</strong>g<br />
from 180 days to 360 days for seasonal products<br />
(e.g., w<strong>in</strong>ter remedies and anti-allergy<br />
drugs).<br />
Agreement on payment periods of 27 January: additional to the code of good practice for payment<br />
periods:<br />
> the payment period between clients and subcontractors is cut to a maximum of 90 days effective 1 September<br />
Client bus<strong>in</strong>esses <strong>in</strong> the sector with turnover <strong>in</strong> excess of 300 million euros will give an additional reduction<br />
<strong>in</strong> payment periods of 30 days to suppliers with turnover of less than 50 million euros, accord<strong>in</strong>g<br />
to the follow<strong>in</strong>g modalities: maximum payment periods of 75 days effective 1 September and of 60 days<br />
effective 1 September.<br />
LME construction<br />
In France: under derogation <strong>in</strong> the construction and<br />
civil eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g sector, the parties agree the follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />
maximum payment periods:<br />
> 70 days from end of month effective 1 January<br />
> 60 days from end of month effective 1 January<br />
> 50 days from end of month effective 1 January<br />
> 45 days from end of month effective 1 January<br />
In France: under a derogation for non-prescription<br />
drugs, the payment periods agreed by the<br />
parties to settle <strong>in</strong>voices due may not exceed:<br />
> 90 days from <strong>in</strong>voice date for 2009<br />
> 70 days from <strong>in</strong>voice date for 2010<br />
> 60 days from <strong>in</strong>voice date from 1 January.<br />
These payment periods run from the date of issue<br />
of the <strong>in</strong>voice.<br />
The 35 derogations of the LME<br />
> toys; DIY; watches and jewellery; construction and civil eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g; plumb<strong>in</strong>g, heat<strong>in</strong>g<br />
and electrical equipment; book publish<strong>in</strong>g; stationery and office supplies; tyres; metal<br />
packag<strong>in</strong>g closures and metal t<strong>in</strong>s for food; optional non-reimbursable prescription<br />
drugs; sales of pets, products and accessories for pets; two or three-wheeled motorised<br />
and quad bikes; boat<strong>in</strong>g; amateur garden<strong>in</strong>g; <strong>in</strong>dustrial equipment and hardware; agricultural<br />
supplies; agricultural equipment; pa<strong>in</strong>ts, <strong>in</strong>ks, colours, glues and adhesives; optical<br />
spectacles; cooperage; sport<strong>in</strong>g goods; pr<strong>in</strong>t <strong>in</strong>dustry; music CDs and DVDs; amateur<br />
fish<strong>in</strong>g; arts and crafts; leather; steel products for construction; recreational vehicles;<br />
mar<strong>in</strong>e and <strong>in</strong>land aquaculture; food supplements; roundwood logs and stand<strong>in</strong>g<br />
timber; wholesal<strong>in</strong>g of automotive tools; hunt<strong>in</strong>g arms and ammunition; textiles and<br />
cloth<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
29
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Annex II<br />
▶ <strong>Payment</strong> defaults <strong>in</strong> Italy<br />
A close exam<strong>in</strong>ation of payment defaults of Italian<br />
bus<strong>in</strong>esses reveals great disparities between<br />
regions and sectors via two key <strong>in</strong>dicators: the rate<br />
of non-payment and the severity (average<br />
amount) of missed payments.<br />
On the domestic market, the victims of the crisis <strong>in</strong><br />
consumption, of <strong>in</strong>ternational competition (e.g.,<br />
footwear) or of the rise <strong>in</strong> energy prices (e.g., paper<br />
manufactur<strong>in</strong>g) saw default amounts <strong>in</strong>crease.<br />
Chemicals also saw a rise <strong>in</strong> these amounts.<br />
Exports, a key element <strong>in</strong> the Italian economy <strong>in</strong> 2011,<br />
now are a matter of great concern over the rate of<br />
payment defaults <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>dustry, agriculture, foods,<br />
chemicals and mechanical eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
Italy’s strong exports to troubled economies such as<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong>, Greece and Portugal have a considerable<br />
impact on the severity of non-payments. We also see<br />
an <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> the average payment default amount <strong>in</strong><br />
the steel, footwear and construction sectors.<br />
Regional disparities are <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the crisis: the<br />
south and centre of Italy are more exposed to liquidity<br />
problems dur<strong>in</strong>g economic slowdowns. In the north<br />
of the country, <strong>in</strong> Piedmont and Liguria, show a<br />
susta<strong>in</strong>ed trend of <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g rate (depend<strong>in</strong>g on the<br />
production specialisation <strong>in</strong> these regions, i.e.,<br />
automobiles and naval <strong>in</strong>dustries). In central and<br />
southern regions, the trend deteriorates more quickly,<br />
with some diverg<strong>in</strong>g trends for certa<strong>in</strong> regions like<br />
Molise and Calabria, which are just improv<strong>in</strong>g after a<br />
deep crisis. ▣<br />
Italy -<br />
Domestic market – 2007 to March 2012 trend<br />
(basis, 2007 = 100) (basis, 2007 = 100)<br />
Italy -<br />
Export market – 2007 to March 2012 trend<br />
200<br />
150<br />
150<br />
120<br />
100<br />
90<br />
50<br />
60<br />
Rate<br />
Amount<br />
0<br />
Q1<br />
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Rate<br />
Amount<br />
30<br />
Q1<br />
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
30
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Annexe III<br />
▶ Detailed data, by country<br />
Germany Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2000 30 21.6 8.3<br />
2001 27.3 19.7 -9% -8.9% 7.6<br />
2002 26.6 19.2 -2.4% -2.6% 7.4<br />
2003 26.1 19.0 -1.8% -0.8% 7.1<br />
2004 25.5 18.9 -2.2% -0.8% 6.7<br />
2005 25.3 18.7 -1% -0.9% 6.6<br />
2006 25.4 18 0.5% -3.8% 7.4<br />
2007 25.2 18.5 -0.8% 2.6% 6.7<br />
2008 22.6 16.7 -10.2% -9.5% 5.9<br />
2009 23.4 17.1 3.6% 2.5% 6.3<br />
2010 23.7 18.5 1% 7.9% 5.2<br />
2011 23.5 18.5 -1% 0% 5<br />
2012 23.3 18.5 -0.5% 0% 4.9<br />
2013 23.1 18.5 -1% 0% 4.6<br />
Poland Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2005 45.4 45.3 0.1<br />
2006 45.6 44.6 0.4% -1.4% 0.9<br />
2007 44.5 43.7 -2.3% -2.2% 0.9<br />
2008 43.7 43.3 -1.8% -0.9% 0.4<br />
2009 44.3 44.1 1.3% 2.0% 0.1<br />
2010 45.3 44.9 2.3% 1.8% 0.4<br />
2011 44.1 43.3 -2.7% -3.7% 0.8<br />
2012 43.2 42.3 -2.0% -2.3% 0.9<br />
2013 42.1 41.1 -2.5% -2.7% 1<br />
France Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2000 68.0 58.3 9.6<br />
2001 64.5 56.2 -5.1% -3.6% 8.3<br />
2002 63.2 55.1 -2.0% -2.0% 8.1<br />
2003 62.4 54.3 -1.2% -1.5% 8.2<br />
2004 61.2 54.0 -2.0% -0.6% 7.2<br />
2005 63.3 55.3 3.4% 2.5% 8<br />
2006 63.4 55.5 0.3% 0.3% 8<br />
2007 63.2 55.8 -0.3% 0.7% 7.4<br />
2008 63.1 53.2 -0.2% -4.7% 9.9<br />
2009 60.7 51.1 -3.7% -4.1% 9.7<br />
2010 61.4 52.4 1.1% 2.6% 9<br />
2011 62 53.2 0.9% 1.6% 8.7<br />
2012 62.3 53.2 0.5% 0% 9<br />
2013 62.9 53.8 1% 1% 9.1<br />
Belgium Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2000 69.8 56.9 12.9<br />
2001 67.3 54.4 -3.6% -4.3% 12.8<br />
2002 64 43.7 -4.8% -19.6% 20.3<br />
2003 67,8 53.8 5.9% 23.1% 13.9<br />
2004 72.1 58.2 6.5% 8.1% 13.9<br />
2005 65.9 53.5 -8.6% -8.1% 12.4<br />
2006 64.3 51.8 -2.5% -3.2% 12.5<br />
2007 65.5 51.8 2% 0% 13.7<br />
2008 60.7 47.3 -7.3% -8.7% 13.4<br />
2009 64.8 51.8 6.7% 9.4% 13<br />
2010 63.2 52.2 -2.5% 0.9% 11<br />
2011 61.6 50.7 -2.5% -2.9% 10.9<br />
2012 61.6 50.7 0% 0% 10.9<br />
2013 60.7 49.8 -1.5% -1.8% 10.9<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2000 69.6 64.2 5.3<br />
2001 69.5 64.2 -0.1% 0% 5.3<br />
2002 70.6 64.6 1.5% 0.7% 5.9<br />
2003 69.2 64.7 -1.9% 0.1% 4.5<br />
2004 69.8 64.8 0.8% 0.2% 4.9<br />
2005 71.2 67.0 2% 3.3% 4.2<br />
2006 71.5 67.4 0.4% 0.6% 4.1<br />
2007 73.5 69.5 2.9% 3.1% 4<br />
2008 70.6 66.9 -3.9% -3.8% 3.8<br />
2009 80.9 75.3 14.6% 12.6% 5.6<br />
2010 79.0 75.3 -2.4% 0% 3.6<br />
2011 78.3 74.8 -0.9% -0.8% 3.5<br />
2012 80.2 76.3 2.5% 2% 4<br />
2013 80.6 76.6 0.5% 0.5% 4<br />
Italy Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2000 105.9 85.7 20.2<br />
2001 102.7 81.9 -3% -4.5% 20.8<br />
2002 106.1 83.3 3.3% 1.8% 22.8<br />
2003 105.2 82.6 -0.9% -0.9% 22.6<br />
2004 102.4 82.2 -2.7% -0.5% 20.2<br />
2005 104.5 83.8 2.1% 2% 20.7<br />
2006 102.8 81.2 -1.7% -3.2% 21.6<br />
2007 100.8 80.8 -1.9% -0.5% 20<br />
2008 99.6 77.2 -1.2% -4.4% 22.4<br />
2009 106.8 82.5 7.2% 6.9% 24.2<br />
2010 105.9 82.3 -0.8% -0.3% 23.7<br />
2011 105.3 81.8 -0.6% -0.5% 23.5<br />
2012 107.4 83.5 2% 2% 24<br />
2013 107.4 83.5 0% 0% 24<br />
Portugal Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
2000 68.3 51.6 16.7<br />
2001 71.4 53.8 4.6% 4.4% 17.6<br />
2002 69.6 53.7 -2.6% -0.2% 15.9<br />
2003 70.9 55.3 1.8% 3% 15.5<br />
2004 70.1 55.4 -1% 0.1% 14.7<br />
2005 69.0 54.8 -1.6% -1.2% 14.2<br />
2006 76.4 64.4 10.8% 17.6% 12.0<br />
2007 76.8 64.8 0.4% 0.6% 12.0<br />
2008 72.7 61 -5.3% -5.8% 11.7<br />
2009 79.8 65.3 9.8% 6.9% 14.6<br />
2010 81.7 66.3 2.3% 1.6% 15.4<br />
2011 82.3 66 0.8% -0.4% 16.3<br />
2012 83.6 65.4 1.5% -1.0% 18.2<br />
2013 83.6 65.4 0% 0% 18.2<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
31
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
Annexe IV<br />
▶ Detailed data, by sector<br />
Automobiles Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 41 50 1% -12% -8<br />
Germany 21 34 14% 45% -13<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 48 56 -27% 10% -8<br />
Italy 37 75 -12% -4% -38<br />
United States 42 79 -97% -86% -37<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 31 34 56% 26% -3<br />
Belgium 41 69 -6% 27% -28<br />
Denmark 40 45 10% 33% -5<br />
Norway 45 47 -23% 10% -2<br />
Sweden 19 37 -47% 15% -18<br />
Automotive Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
components payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 54 53 -21% -21% 2<br />
Germany 36 24 0% -4% 12<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 83 52 -18% 2% 31<br />
Italy 111 96 3% -2% 14<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 68 41 -12% -30% 26<br />
Belgium 67 49 -17% -14% 18<br />
Denmark 55 20 -2% -5% 35<br />
Norway 40 27 -33% -14% 13<br />
Sweden 51 39 -26% -9% 12<br />
Chemicals Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 59 51 -11% -8% 8<br />
Germany 46 29 -3% 1% 17<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 67 46 -30% -1% 21<br />
Italy 93 63 -8% -9% 30<br />
United States 61 41 22% 16% 20<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 30 28 -15% 10% 3<br />
Belgium 58 47 14% 7% 12<br />
Denmark 57 29 11% 12% 28<br />
Norway 40 31 1% 4% 9<br />
Sweden 32 24 -7% -9% 8<br />
Pharmaceuticals Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 66 52 -13% -16% 14<br />
Germany 46 16 41% -10% 30<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 85 35 -11% 18% 50<br />
Italy 90 40 -6% -15% 50<br />
United States 93 38 49% 43% 55<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 36 31 -1% 7% 5<br />
Belgium 63 54 12% 7% 9<br />
Denmark 38 20 2% 4% 18<br />
Norway 25 16 16% -11% 9<br />
Sweden 11 11 31% 25% 0<br />
Construction Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 87 57 -6% -18% 30<br />
Germany 41 28 -16% -19% 13<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 174 157 -10% -3% 17<br />
Italy 127 114 -1% -6% 13<br />
United States 53 43 46% 18% 11<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 33 38 -2% -10% -5<br />
Belgium 82 70 -10% -13% 12<br />
Denmark 57 38 -11% -9% 19<br />
Norway 63 33 -10% -21% 30<br />
Sweden 47 27 -5% 6% 21<br />
IT services Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicatorr<br />
France 95 51 -7% 3% 44<br />
Germany 52 25 9% -8% 27<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 107 61 -14% 14% 46<br />
Italy 101 60 -2% -5% 41<br />
United States 72 21 16% -10% 51<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 50 23 0% -12% 27<br />
Belgium 84 58 -4% -10% 25<br />
Denmark 54 26 -17% 5% 28<br />
Norway 64 25 -8% -3% 39<br />
Sweden 33 23 -5% -7% 9<br />
Air Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
transport payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 44 44 -2% 8% 1<br />
Germany 29 31 2% 14% -2<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 34 62 -45% 51% -29<br />
Italy 29 58 -35% -16% -30<br />
United States 21 22 5% 5% -1<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 17 25 -29% 43% -8<br />
Belgium 51 49 47% 12% 3<br />
Denmark 15 23 -13% -17% -8<br />
Norway 21 19 -19% -30% 2<br />
Sweden 12 17 -31% -6% -5<br />
Aeronautic Client Supplier Client Supplier Cash flow<br />
components payment payment payment period payment period tension<br />
period period growth <strong>in</strong>dicator growth <strong>in</strong>dicator <strong>in</strong>dicator<br />
France 65 49 -5% -14% 16<br />
Germany 20 51 -21% 37% -32<br />
Spa<strong>in</strong> 153 131 8% -17% 22<br />
Italy 62 60 -22% -31% 2<br />
United States 67 42 42% -15% 25<br />
United K<strong>in</strong>gdom 40 44 -12% 5% -4<br />
Note: client payment period, supplier payment period and cash flow tension <strong>in</strong>dicator are for 2010; client and supplier period growth <strong>in</strong>dicators are for 2006-2010.<br />
Source: <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
32
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
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<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
34<br />
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www.eulerhermes.com
Economic Outlook n° 1182 | Special Dossier | <strong>Payment</strong> periods<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
Economic Outlook<br />
series…<br />
N° 1170 > Special Dossier<br />
Rebound <strong>in</strong> worldtrade <strong>in</strong> 2010 confirms the shift already underway before the crisis.<br />
N° 1171 > Bus<strong>in</strong>ess Insolvency Worldwide<br />
The fall <strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>solvencies is confirmed, but on a modest scale and <strong>in</strong> uneven fashion.<br />
N° 1172 > Global Macroeconomic Review<br />
In the face of slowdowns and turbulence, world economic recovery is go<strong>in</strong>g through tumultuous times.<br />
N° 1173 > Global Sectors Review<br />
Global economic recovery cont<strong>in</strong>ues, but new threats are aris<strong>in</strong>g.<br />
N° 1174 > Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>in</strong>solvency <strong>in</strong> France (only available <strong>in</strong> French)<br />
The decl<strong>in</strong>e <strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>solvencies rema<strong>in</strong>s modest overall and stillvery uneven, with a high number of cases.<br />
The French economic environment - the slowdown cont<strong>in</strong>ues.<br />
N° 1175 > Global Macroeconomic Perspectives<br />
The slowdown is confirmed, the weaknesses rema<strong>in</strong>, the risks endure.<br />
N° 1176 > Special Dossier<br />
Green Economy.<br />
N° 1177-1178 > Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook<br />
On the edge.<br />
N° 1179 > Global Sectors Review<br />
Look<strong>in</strong>g for growth where it can be found.<br />
N° 1180 > Bus<strong>in</strong>ess <strong>in</strong>solvency <strong>in</strong> France (only available <strong>in</strong> French)<br />
The overall decrease <strong>in</strong> French <strong>in</strong>solvencies hides several weaknesses.<br />
N° 1181 > Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook<br />
A fog cannot be dispelled by a fan.<br />
N° 1182 > Special Dossier<br />
<strong>Payment</strong> periods <strong>in</strong> <strong>Europe</strong>: wide gaps<br />
To come:<br />
N° 1183-84 > Macroeconomic, Risk and Insolvency Outlook<br />
35
joncture <strong>in</strong>ternationale et risques pays<br />
ralentissement se confirme,<br />
s faiblesses demeurent,<br />
s risques persistent<br />
www.eulerhermes.com<br />
<strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> Economic Outlook is published quaterly<br />
by the Economic Research Department of <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong><br />
1, place des Saison, 92048 Paris La Défense Cedex - Tel. : +33 (0) 1 84 11 53 77<br />
This document reflects the op<strong>in</strong>ion of the Economic Research Department of <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong>.<br />
The <strong>in</strong>formation, analyses and forecasts conta<strong>in</strong>ed here<strong>in</strong> are based on the Department's current hypotheses and viewpo<strong>in</strong>ts<br />
and are of a prospective nature. In this regard, the Economic Research Department of <strong>Euler</strong> <strong>Hermes</strong> has no responsibility for<br />
the consequences hereof and no liability. Moreover, these analyses are subject to modification at any time.