February 2010 - Indian Airforce

ONE day I was performing D Met O duties. In the
morning briefing I had forecasted convective weather
activity and thunderstorms in the afternoon/early
evening hours based on the synoptic chart inputs.
However, at around 1000 h, I noticed some dark patches
appearing west of the base. I immediately requested the
GCA for a weather report. In addition, I requested the DATCO
to obtain air report from the pilots who were airborne.
The GCA weather report confirmed that there were many
cumulus patches in the SW direction. As the BADC missions
were in air, I was told that the air report would be provided
after landing of the first ac. While I was waiting for the aircraft
to land, taxi-in, switch off and then obtain pilot’s weather
debrief, the cumulus patches in the southwest grew in size
and extent.
I was now getting impatient by the second, in the
absence of actual prevailing weather around the airfield and
its actual build up. When I could no longer bear the threat of
an occurrence of a thunderstorm over the airfield, I issued a
weather warning giving a 30 mts warning time for the aircraft
to recover. All aircraft in the local flying area were recalled
by the DATCO citing deterioration in the weather conditions.
Only when the first aircraft had landed and switched off in
dispersal, I could talk to the pilot on the weather build up
and its movement. By this time, all the aircraft had landed
safely after having abandoned their missions.
The pilot gave me a detailed debrief about the weather
conditions. I, then learnt that the cumulus patches were
growing but were moving in a northerly direction; thus,
would have been clear of the base. I realized, I was wrong in
estimating the direction of movement of the CB clouds, had
issued the weather warning too early and now it was too
late to retract the warning. Had I known that useful weather
input 15 mts early, may be there would not have been loss of
valuable flying training of the pilots.
I am sure meteorologists face this kind of experience
quite often. The importance of weather debriefs has been
emphasized on numerous occasions. Meteorology is a
growing science and brings about collateral benefits to
us. Its importance ranges from utility services to space
missions, from satellites to super computers and so on. Its
role is ubiquitous. Such is its ubiquity that a day does not
pass in most people’s life, when they directly or indirectly,
consciously or subconsciously want to know the next day’s
weather. Be it a flyer, farmer or a mere weekender.
Despite its significance, it is the only science that is most
ridiculed and at the same time respected. Generally, the
reasons for failures in accurate forecasting are attributed to
improper analysis. This is partly true, but most of the time it is
lack of timely inputs in a rapidly changing weather situation
that causes the failure in predictions.
While we have a host of input channels for medium and
long-range forecasts, for now-casting, there is no substitute
to an air report that is given by a pilot in real time. All the
conventional forms of input reception systems like land
line channels, satellite products and internet sites provide
us rather ‘stale’ data. We have not yet imbibed real time
data reception methodology.
At the time of need of real time input, it is from a pilot
alone, that we get the best status of current meteorological
conditions. In marginal weather conditions, the first sortie
is usually carried out for weather reconnaissance at our
flying bases. That amply proves the significance of such an
input.
By providing weather debriefs, the pilots can make the
weathermen work in real time. Weather debriefs enlarges
the scope of forecasting ability of the forecaster. It brings out
distinct perceptional change among the weather brethren.
In the sense, the weather debrief gives a meteorologist the
most needed reaction time in ‘now-casting’. It has a learning
value too. The weather debrief provides a forecaster the
much needed confidence to either back his forecast or to
amend it as necessary.
Like wise, a true forecaster cannot become a master
in his profession without having done some real time data
analysis. The real time weather debrief input provides
enough data to supercede the synoptic chart that is
prepared at the end of a three/ six hour synoptic period
(atleast for local forecasts).
Recently there was a policy circulated by Air HQs
regarding enlarging the observational envelope around the
airfield for more accurate and timely short range forecasts.
Field units were asked to conduct surveys of nearby civil/
military establishments and liaise to establish a larger
weather observation network. Whether shine or shower, let
us institutionalize gathering of the pilot debrief even if it is
a single sentence report about general weather conditions,
as soon as the aircraft takes off, which would immensely
help in providing a more conducive environment for flying
operations. During flying, if pilots are busy, other aircrew
like navigators, flight gunners etc can give debrief on the
general weather conditions. This would immensely help
the weathermen in understanding the intricacies of nature
more objectively. Adherence to this would definitely
increase the quality of the forecasts issued by the Met Flight
significantly. I hope that the passing of weather debriefs by
the aircrew become a routine in near future.
JWO P Sriram Met Asst is posted to 414 AF Station.
INDIAN AIR FORCE 2 01 0 F e b r u a r y Flight Safety 11