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Tracking from one lead Kme to <strong>the</strong> next <br />
Linear extrapolaKon <br />
Barnes analysis & advecKon <br />
+ <br />
t‐1 <br />
+ <br />
t <br />
t+1 <br />
Latitude<br />
Longitude<br />
The guess posiKons from <br />
<strong>the</strong>se 2 methods are <br />
averaged to compute a final <br />
guess posiKon for <strong>the</strong> search <br />
at <strong>the</strong> next lead Kme. <br />
A Barnes analysis with a large r e <br />
at 850, 700 & 500 mb is used to <br />
compute mean steering winds. <br />
A parcel is advected to a guess <br />
posiKon at <strong>the</strong> next lead Kme.