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Investor Presentation December 2011 - United Breweries Limited

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IR presentation <strong>2011</strong><br />

Brewing a success in India<br />

Guido de Boer<br />

CFO <strong>United</strong> <strong>Breweries</strong>


UBL: Key facts and figures<br />

10<br />

54%<br />

1.5<br />

18<br />

39%<br />

75%<br />

million hectoliters<br />

market share, the largest brewer in India<br />

litre per capita consumption<br />

owned breweries, and 10 contract<br />

breweries<br />

share for the Kingfisher brand - it is<br />

synonymous with Indian beer<br />

owned by Dr Vijay Mallya and Heineken<br />

Source: FY<strong>2011</strong> company Information, Industry Reports


India and the Beer opportunity


Source: <strong>United</strong> Nations (<strong>2011</strong>), McKinsey Global Institute (2007)<br />

Demographic dividend to be reaped<br />

Population increase fuels potential for rapid beer market growth<br />

India<br />

China<br />

Brazil<br />

Russia<br />

Population in 2030<br />

India<br />

China<br />

Brazil<br />

Russia<br />

Below 25 year olds as % of total<br />

population in 2030<br />

20%<br />

11%<br />

2%<br />

1%<br />

0 500 1,000 1,500<br />

mln<br />

India will have the world’s largest<br />

population by 2025<br />

In 2030, India will have over 1.5bn<br />

inhabitants<br />

Net increase in working population<br />

of 270 million by 2030<br />

0% 10% 20% 30%<br />

In 2030:<br />

20% of the world’s below 25 year<br />

olds will be Indian…<br />

…compared with 11% from China<br />

Significant growth in the legal<br />

drinking age population in India


Consumption is set for strong growth<br />

A significant middle class will emerge supporting increased spending power<br />

Household income<br />

brackets<br />

thousand, Indian rupees, 2000<br />

Globals (>1,000)<br />

Strivers (500-1,000)<br />

Seekers (200-500)<br />

Aspirers (90-200)<br />

Deprived (1,000)<br />

Strivers (500-1,000)<br />

Seekers (200-500)<br />

Aspirers (90-200)<br />

Deprived (


PCC in litres<br />

Beer consumption in India is well below<br />

other ‘BRIC’ countries<br />

The Indian beer market has grown strongly over the past 5 years from a low base<br />

Per Capita Beer Consumption<br />

80<br />

76.1<br />

64.5<br />

60<br />

40<br />

34.5<br />

20<br />

0<br />

CAGR 14%<br />

0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China Brazil Russia<br />

India<br />

Source: Canadean (<strong>2011</strong>)


Today’s beer consumption is very low<br />

India is far below other emerging markets of similar income levels<br />

India<br />

Comparable Markets<br />

Per Capita Beer<br />

Consumption at<br />

comparable GDP<br />

1.5 liter 20 liter<br />

Share of alcohol<br />

consumption<br />


Two key reasons<br />

High prices & low availability<br />

AFFORDABILITY<br />

• Highest duty in the world<br />

• Duty not set according to<br />

alcohol content<br />

• Expensive alcoholic<br />

beverage<br />

AVAILABILITY<br />

• 65,000 licensed outlets<br />

across the country<br />

• 1 per 18,000 people<br />

• In China: 1 per 300 people<br />

Beer is not the alcoholic beverage<br />

of the common man


Affordability<br />

Beer prices in India are very high<br />

An Indian has to work up to 7x as<br />

long to afford a beer<br />

Minutes work for a beer<br />

India is the only BRIC where a beer<br />

is more expensive than a Big Mac<br />

Beer relative to Big Mac<br />

India<br />

51<br />

India<br />

1.1x<br />

Brazil<br />

18<br />

Brazil<br />

0.5x<br />

Russia<br />

8<br />

Russia<br />

0.5x<br />

China<br />

7<br />

China<br />

0.2x<br />

0 20 40 60<br />

0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x


Affordability<br />

Excise is highest among BRICs and drives preference for hard liquor<br />

Taxation is significantly higher<br />

than other countries<br />

Taxation of Beer<br />

Beer is taxed significantly higher<br />

than hard liquor<br />

Relative pricing vs<br />

spirits per unit of pure<br />

alcohol<br />

India<br />

Brazil<br />

Russia<br />

Kingfisher<br />

Premium<br />

75<br />

2.6x<br />

China<br />

Bagpiper<br />

29<br />

0% 20% 40% 60%<br />

Excise Duty VAT and other tax<br />

- 50 100<br />

Indicative rates as % of consumer price. VAT is only<br />

levied on value added, so effective rate is lower.<br />

Based on consumer prices in Tamil Nadu


Source: Company estimates. Percentages depict volume growth rates for FY11<br />

Availability<br />

Case Study: Mumbai Beer shops<br />

New Policy established<br />

Since the 1970’s no new licenses<br />

have been issued for liquor shops<br />

In 2006, the Maharashtra<br />

government started to issue ‘beer<br />

shop’ licenses for outlets that can<br />

only sell beer and wine, but not<br />

spirits<br />

…driving high growth in beer shop<br />

volumes<br />

31%<br />

Number of beer shops has increased<br />

sharply…<br />

300<br />

190<br />

215<br />

Mar10 Mar11 Nov 11<br />

…accelerating growth of the overall<br />

market<br />

4% 15%<br />

3%<br />

12%<br />

14%<br />

8%<br />

Liquor shops Permit rooms<br />

Beer shops<br />

Liquor shops Permit rooms Beer shops<br />

Industry


A highly regulated market<br />

Leveraging the existing framework<br />

Excessive State regulation and intervention<br />

• Route to market<br />

• Economics, need to have a brewery in each state<br />

• Pricing<br />

India is not homogeneous country<br />

• 27 uniquely different states<br />

Ban on advertising alcohol<br />

• Difficult to build new brands<br />

Requires ability to operating in very different<br />

structures


Per Capita Beer consumption<br />

Source: Canadean (<strong>2011</strong>), World Bank (<strong>2011</strong>), Company forecasts<br />

India is at the start of the growth curve<br />

Income growth will drive per capita beer consumption<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

Beer consumption versus income level<br />

Brazil<br />

Russia<br />

Mexico<br />

Vietnam<br />

Colombia<br />

China<br />

Demographics will fuel further market<br />

growth<br />

UBL expects to grow volume at an<br />

average annual rate of 15% over the<br />

next five years<br />

By the end of 2015, India is<br />

expected to reach 3 liter per capita<br />

20<br />

Philippines<br />

Kenya<br />

Nigeria<br />

India<br />

0<br />

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000<br />

GDP per Capita (in USD, PPP)


Capitalising on UBL’s strengths<br />

for growth


UBL’s leadership is undisputed<br />

Market leading position in India<br />

Strong market position will continue to drive economies of scale and superior<br />

returns<br />

All time high market share of over 54%<br />

UBL is more than two times its<br />

nearest competitor<br />

Carlsberg<br />

4%<br />

Mt Shivalik<br />

4%<br />

M Meakins<br />

4%<br />

AB-Inbev<br />

1%<br />

SAB<br />

23%<br />

Others<br />

10%<br />

UBL<br />

54%<br />

On a brand basis the leadership is even more apparent<br />

50%<br />

40%<br />

30%<br />

20%<br />

10%<br />

0%<br />

All-India market share FY11


What is this leading position resulting from?<br />

UBL’s Competitive Advantages<br />

UBL has been able to achieve its market leadership by<br />

leveraging four competitive advantages:<br />

Brands<br />

People<br />

Manufacturing<br />

footprint<br />

Route-to-<br />

Market


The strength of the Kingfisher Brand is<br />

unparalleled<br />

Iconic brand – KINGFISHER is<br />

synonymous with beer for Indian<br />

consumers<br />

No other beer brand comes<br />

close:<br />

All-India market share Mild Beer FY11<br />

Kingfisher<br />

Royal Challenge<br />

Fosters<br />

UB Export<br />

London Pilsner<br />

Budweiser<br />

Kalyani<br />

Sandpiper<br />

Tuborg<br />

Golden Eagle<br />

>6x<br />

0% 20% 40% 60%<br />

Brand Equity among young<br />

consumers:<br />

Kingfisher is India’s most liked<br />

beer brand by far. No.2 has only<br />

172k fans<br />

On a global basis, Kingfisher is<br />

the most liked alcohol brand<br />

after Heineken<br />

Leaving all global beers such as<br />

Budweiser and Corona, and<br />

renowned spirits as Smirnoff<br />

and Bacardi well behind it<br />

Brands in green are part of UBL portfolio


PRICE INDEX<br />

But it is not only Kingfisher…<br />

…UBL leads across all segments<br />

Mumbai mild beer portfolio Q2FY12<br />

Key brand<br />

Segment<br />

share<br />

No.2<br />

Relative<br />

share<br />

170+<br />

Super<br />

Premium<br />

65%<br />

Corona<br />

0.25x<br />

135<br />

Premium<br />

49%<br />

Carlsberg<br />

0.96x<br />

100<br />

Mainstream<br />

70%<br />

Fosters<br />

0.23x<br />

80<br />

Economy<br />

81%<br />

Golden Eagle 0.19x


Investing behind the brand<br />

Leveraging aspirational properties in fashion and sports<br />

Cricket: Indian Premier League<br />

Football: Kingfisher East Bengal<br />

Formula One: Force India<br />

Fashion: Kingfisher swimsuit calendar


Heineken<br />

Building brand equity for the future<br />

Selective launch in key metros: Mumbai, Delhi,<br />

Bangalore, Kolkata and Goa<br />

Gradual roll-out based on:<br />

1. Perfect execution<br />

Targeted Distribution<br />

Premium Visibility<br />

Cold & Fresh Stock management<br />

2. Driving awareness & be part of the conversation.<br />

Strong focus on digital media<br />

3. Set benchmarks at every touch-point - Quality over quantity<br />

K2 bottles<br />

World class PoS materials<br />

4. Leveraging UBL strengths in market<br />

IPS segment is still a very small part of the<br />

overall market


Manufacturing network across all major<br />

states<br />

UBL brewery footprint<br />

Unique brewery footprint<br />

• In line with the requirements of<br />

a complex regulatory<br />

framework<br />

• 18 owned breweries and 10<br />

contract breweries<br />

Closeness to market a critical<br />

success factor<br />

• Freight costs<br />

• Import and export duties<br />

• Freshness<br />

Owned breweries<br />

Contract breweries<br />

Ability to manage contract<br />

brewers in key states


Best Route to Market<br />

In distribution…<br />

India has 27 states that have distinctly different routes<br />

to market<br />

Ability to manage this complexity is one of UBL’s<br />

core strengths<br />

Established distributor relationships<br />

Group scale - with 60% share in spirits and 54% in<br />

beer - provides significant benefits<br />

Most distributors have been UB Group partners for<br />

multiple decades<br />

The best distributors and trade partners aligned<br />

with UB Group


Best Route to Market<br />

…as well as in retail<br />

freshness<br />

Cold<br />

stock<br />

Fastest selling<br />

brands<br />

Leadership in cold chain management<br />

Point of sale visibility<br />

Must stock brands provides portfolio<br />

benefits<br />

Economies of scale


People<br />

Most experienced management in the industry<br />

Customer facing management has been with the group for 20+ years<br />

Very low churn rate<br />

Strong background in dealing with regulatory environment and<br />

market complexities<br />

Very difficult for foreign entrants to replicate<br />

Chairman’s added value<br />

Dr Vijay Mallya provides significant added value as ambassador for<br />

the industry’s interests and is a member of parliament


UBL has a proven track record


Exceptional volume growth<br />

UBL volumes increased five fold in less than a decade<br />

UBL Sales volumes<br />

In Million Hectoliters<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

5x<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11


All amount are in Rs bln, for year ending 31 March<br />

Continued outstanding performance<br />

Performance highlights FY2006-<strong>2011</strong><br />

Sales up with an average 32% y-o-y<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 <strong>2011</strong><br />

EBIT has quadrupled since FY2006<br />

4.0<br />

3.0<br />

2.0<br />

1.0<br />

0.0<br />

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 <strong>2011</strong><br />

EBITDA exceeds Rs 4 billion<br />

5.0<br />

4.0<br />

3.0<br />

2.0<br />

1.0<br />

-<br />

Net Profit has grown with 54% CAGR<br />

2.0<br />

1.5<br />

1.0<br />

0.5<br />

0.0<br />

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 <strong>2011</strong><br />

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 <strong>2011</strong>


Closing remarks


In Summary…<br />

Indian beer market growth opportunity unparalleled in<br />

the world<br />

UBL is the clear market leader with strong segment<br />

leadership positions<br />

UBL expects to grow volume at a CAGR of 15% over the<br />

next 5 years<br />

A superior route-to-market and manufacturing footprint<br />

provides consumer reach and scale benefits<br />

Strong fundamentals in place to continue strong profit<br />

growth


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