Agriculture, Food Security and Inclusive Growth - SID Netherlands ...

Positive
1. The context of rural poverty reduction is changing enormously and there
are some very good things happening. This is a gross generalization of course,
but across many developing countries democracy is spreading, getting more
profound, and there is decentralization of government functions, improvement
in fiscal authority, and greater accountability. One of the most interesting things
we are seeing in countries in developing regions is that agriculture is becoming
increasingly important as a political issue, to a far greater extent than was the
case a decade ago. Farmers represent an important political constituency and
that is good.
2. We are seeing faster growth across the developing world, not just in the
economies in transition but also in the least developed economies. According to
estimates of the IMF, 7 out of 10 of the fastest growing economies up to 2015 will
be in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (IMF, 2011). That is an enormous change.
3. Cities and towns are growing fast, with five percent increase of inhabitants
per year or more. These represent bigger populations with higher incomes, and
a new sort of demand for agricultural products. One of the biggest changes in
agricultural markets is that in many developing countries there are now really
important and high value markets for agricultural food products. It is no longer
food versus export cash crops, there are cash crops for domestic markets and
they are far larger than export markets, and even growing.
4. Rural and urban economies are integrating. There is better infrastructure,
better communications, and people are commuting. New towns are emerging,
creating a new demand for products and providing new services to the rural areas.
5. BRICS countries are trading, investing, and they are bringing dynamism to
various aspects of developing economies, and much of that is positive.
Negative
1. Global population by 2050 is likely to be over 9 billion, but the picture for
individual countries or continents is differentiated. Africa’s population will more
than double by 2050 and this has enormous consequences for food needs but
also for employment creation. We arrived in a new era of higher food prices and
also more volatile prices, which causes more uncertainty and anxiety.
2. There is also a widespread concern about natural resource degradation – soils,
water, biodiversity, and climate change multiplies the effects of environmental
degradation.
3. Recent large-scale land investments have not been conducted in a way that
has been terribly helpful for rural poverty reduction. On the contrary, they have
benefited few in host countries.
54 | AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH