BMC NEWS - British Milers Club

Hackett on Sydney
What can BMC administrators,
athletes and coaches learn from an
examination of the results of the
Sydney Games As middle and long distance
specialists, BMC members were primarily
focused on the races ranging from 800m to the
marathon. I have chosen to highlight two
areas in this analysis, namely the age profile
of medallists and the importance of prior
underage success. The tables show the medal
winners in each of these events in addition to
their age. The statistic that will surprise most
people is the age of the gold medallists in the
men’s events. With the exception of
Gebrselessie, the gold medallists were aged
21 and 22. The fact that Gebrselessie has been
winning gold medals since he was that age
should be taken into account. This should
make a few people sit up.
Maybe we have been nursing young
talented athletes along too much in the belief
that time is on their side and it would be better
to wait a few years before pushing them into
hard training. There is more evidence further
on to suggest we need to identify our talented
athletes earlier and target European and World
Junior Championships more vigorously.
The average age of the eighteen medallists
in the men's events was 25. When you
consider there were two 32 year olds in that
list the average age could have been lower.
But it is worth noting that eight of the medallists
were under 23. There is a significant
difference in the age profile of the women
medallists. Apart from Szabo all the gold
medallists were 29 and the average age of the
medallists was 29. In fact 70% of the women
who medalled were aged 29 or over. This
information suggests that women peak later
than men, but that needs to be weighed up
with the following observation.
The majority of the medallists have been
successful since their junior years and it seems
that unless an athlete is showing potential as a
teenager the odds are against him or her being
successful as a senior. Nearly all of the men
who medalled were finalists in their respective
World Junior Championships. Three of the
Olympic champions were World Junior
Champions; Gebrselessie in 1992, Kosgei in
1998 and Wolde in 1998. Two other gold
medallists, Schumann and Ngeny were
finalists at the 1996 World Juniors. Schumann
won the European Juniors the following year
and bear in mind that Ngeny is the world
junior record holder for the mile.
The World Junior Championships started in
1986 so nearly all of the current olympians
had the opportunity to take this stepping
stone. The same trend is now appearing in
women’s athletics as well. At the World
Juniors in 1990, Tulu was a gold medallist and
four years later Szabo was also a winner.
Marathon champion, Takahashi was a finalist
at the World Juniors as was Ribero. Ribero is
an Olympic champion from Atlanta and she
took bronze in Sydney. Sonia O Sullivan
competed in a World Junior Championship
but she didn’t make a final. However, she was
showing signs of things to come when as a
teenager she won the Irish National Senior
Cross-Country Championships. Four years
later she was a World Student Games
champion. A title also won by Szabo. Wami is
another who has been winning championships
since she was a teenager. It is worth noting
that Paula Radcliffe was a World Junior Cross
Country champion.
So what are the implications of these
statistics for British and Irish athletics In the
long term, thinking about the 2008 Olympics;
those responsible for developing talent in
middle and long distance events need to
identify talented 14-16 year olds and prepare
them thoroughly for World and European
Junior Championships. The evidence is strong
that an athlete needs to have performed at top
level as a junior if he or she is to be a medallist
as a senior. This has been the trend with most
prominent middle and long distance athletes.
Of course there will be exceptions to this
trend. Kelly Holmes was a late developer but
remember women have time on their side.
The second point to bear in mind is that the
odds are quite high that the next Olympic
finalists from these islands will have been a
finalist at the 1996, 1998 or 2000 World
Table 2
1996 World Junior finalists
800m men
Tom Lerwill (silver medal)
James Nolan (Irl)
1998 World Junior finalists
800m men 1500m men 5000m women
Chris Moss Colm Mc Lean (Irl) Louise Kelly
2000 World Junior finalists
5000m men
Mohamed Farah
Chris Thompson
Table 1
Medal winners from the Sydney Olympic Games
Name
Age
800m men
1 Schumann 22
2 Kipketer 30
3 Al Geurni 26
1500m men
1 Ngeny 22
2 El Guerrouj 27
3 Lagat 26
3000m s/c
1 Kosgei 21
2 Boit Kipketer 27
3 Ezzine 22
5000m men
1 Wolde 21
2 Saidi-Sief 22
3 Lahlafi 32
10,000m men
1 Gebrselassie 28
2 Tergat 32
3 Mezegebu 22
Marathon men
1 Abera 22
2 Wainaina 27
3 Tola 26
800m women
1 Mutola 29
2 Graf 27
3 Holmes 30
1500m women
1 Merah-Benida 29
2 Szekely 35
3 Szabo 25
5000m women
1 Szabo 25
2 O Sullivan 30
3 Wami 26
10,000m women
1 Tulu 29
2 Wami 26
3 Ribero 32
Marathon women
1 Takahashi 29
2 Simon 27
3 Chepchumba 30
Junior Championships. This is particularly
likely in the men’s events. Of course there will
be one or two exceptions who may have been
injured during a year of the World Juniors or
they may have had an unlucky birth date.
Three who spring to mind are European
Junior medallists Gareth Turnbull and Nick
Andrews and Kelly Caffel who had a couple
of seasons upset by injury. This list of World
Junior finalists includes those in tables 1 & 2.
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BMC News : Spring 2001