Dinokeng Scenarios

THE DIAGNOSIS
VOICES OF DINOKENG
Perspectives from members of
the Dinokeng Scenario Team.
The Dinokeng Scenario Team acknowledges our long legacy of entrenched inequality,
racism, sexism and oppression. It also recognises the significant accomplishments
made since 1994. However, there are deep social and economic challenges
that face our country, challenges that may degenerate into time bombs unless they are
squarely addressed.
This section focuses on the country’s balance sheet: its national “assets” and “liabilities”.
We focus on the primary gains we have made, and the primary challenges we still face. It is
not our intention to provide a catalogue of every conceivable achievement or failure.
In evaluating the nation’s balance sheet, we are mindful of the heritage of our past. The legacies
of the past continue to haunt us: the brutal repression and economic deprivation, the
crippling effects of inferior education, poor housing and health services under apartheid;
coupled with the hierarchical liberation culture and impact of ‘liberation now, education
later’ and ‘making the country ungovernable’. These all carry their imprint on the present.
Much still needs to be done to address this legacy, but we must also not allow it to obscure
the mistakes we have made in the past 15 years and the critical challenges that these
mistakes have yielded.
The Scenario Team poses the following key questions about the future of our country:
How can we as South Africans address our critical challenges before they
become time bombs that destroy our accomplishments
and
What can each one of us do – in our homes, communities and workplaces – to
help build a future that lives up to the promise of 1994
➙
We need to see how the global
economy responds to the current
crisis. Where there is volatility
in the pricing of primary
commodities, how will the
South African economy withstand
this The new centres of growth
– India, China, Russia and
Brazil – will impact on South
Africa and we will see lower rates
of growth over the next five years.
We’ve seen the reduction of
unemployment from 31% [in
2003] to 23% – any reversal
would be dire.
A word of caution: there are
constraints that we need to accept
OUR CONTEXT
South Africa’s present and future is inextricably linked to the fortunes of the continent and
the rest of the world. Our crossroads is located within a global crossroads.
The world is in the midst of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Revised
IMF forecasts in March 2009 indicate that global growth this year is expected to be zero,
down from its half-a-percent forecast barely a month before. According to IMF Managing
Director, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF forecast for global growth to be released in
April 2009 “will indeed reveal a negative global growth for the first time in 60 years”.
Speaking from Dar es Salaam on 9 March, Strauss-Kahn warned: “Even though the crisis
has been slow in reaching Africa’s shores, we all know that it’s coming and its impact will
be severe… millions will be thrown back into poverty”. Sub-Saharan Africa has seen its best
growth performance in 40 years, averaging over 5% per annum for the past five years.
This growth rate is now expected to slow to 3%, with much of it driven by the few oil
producing countries. 2
While South Africa has been buttressed by strong financial regulations and prudent fiscal and
monetary policies, the ripple effects of the global economic downturn are sending tremors
through our economy. In the third quarter of 2008, although net new jobs were created,
more than 74,000 jobs – primarily in the resources sector – were lost as the global demand
8
Endnotes can be found on pages 72 and 73