Dinokeng Scenarios

THREE SCENARIOS
Scenarios are not predictions. They describe possible pathways into a future. To be useful, scenarios
must be relevant, challenging and plausible; they must be internally consistent and based on credible
interpretations of the current reality.
The Scenario Team initially developed 12 possible scenarios. They then reduced these to five and ultimately
to the three scenarios presented below.
The present contains a mixture of all three scenarios, and our future will not look like purely one or the
other. Scenarios allow us to draw apart different futures to see more clearly the opportunities and risks
we face.
The seeds of our future already exist in our present, but our future is not preordained. We can nurture the
“generative” seeds (our assets) and reap the rewards. Conversely, if we allow the “degenerative” seeds
(our liabilities) to grow, they will destroy our future.
The Dinokeng Scenarios run to 2020. This period includes two national and provincial elections in 2014
and 2019, as well as local government elections in 2011 and 2016. These elections are not the only
determinants of our future; we face deep-rooted structural problems that will supersede the outcome of
any election. However, the leadership that emerges out of the electoral process and the strength of
electoral support for that leadership will be critical factors in determining how we address our challenges.
The quality of leadership across all sectors is a key issue. Even more important is the character of
engagement between citizens and leaders, and between citizens and the state. The nature of this
engagement will influence whether and how we can construct a successful future with an effective and
accountable state and a network of involved citizens.
The Scenario Team mapped out three possible paths that South Africans might create by the way that we
walk into the future.
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