Dinokeng Scenarios

THE DINOKENG PROCESS
VOICES OF DINOKENG
Perspectives from members of
the Dinokeng Scenario Team.
In July 2008, the composition of the Scenario Team was finalised and the Dinokeng process
began in earnest. Two distinct though over-lapping phases were planned. The first focussed
on constructing and capturing the scenarios, the second on implementing the most effective
means of sharing this work with others.
Futures are never given. They
are created.
PHASE ONE
The first phase of the Dinokeng exercise involved an intensive process spanning ten months,
from August 2008 to April 2009. It included interviews with all Scenario Team members,
three three-day workshops in 2008 and a fourth workshop in February 2009.
The objective of the interviews was to allow Scenario Team members to highlight what they
saw as the key accomplishments and pressing challenges of our time. Several themes
emerged and these laid the basis for the diagnosis that followed. These themes included:
• Our nation’s psyche;
• The character of our democracy;
• Our current political moment;
• Our government’s capacity to deliver in core public areas such as education and
healthcare; and
We are at a crossroads, but what
is wrong in South Africa can be
fixed. South Africa is a country
of great possibility. We have a
reasonably strong asset base. But
we also have a deficit – we are
badly served by our leadership.
There are dangerous seeds in our
present which have the potential
to lead us to disaster, possibly even
authoritarian rule. This is a
moment of choice that requires
strong decisive leadership.
• Our model of development and growth.
At the first workshop the Scenario Team reviewed the focal questions raised in the interviews
and through structured conversations, developed their understanding of the key challenges
facing the country.
As part of the learning process, team members also visited six local sites – a prison, two
orphanages, a farmers’ fair, a local government official and a woman who trains people in
organic farming. Meeting the people who volunteer in these projects – Mark Harding, the
retiree who volunteers at the orphanage or Ma Tshepo who runs the organic farming
project – gave Team members a sense of hope in South Africa’s reservoir of social capital.
The second workshop was largely taken up with the input of experts on various issues
ranging from the state of education and health in South Africa, to poverty and unemployment,
race and identity, and the role of leadership in all sectors including the trade unions, business,
political parties and government.
By the end of the second workshop the Scenario Team had identified some of the key
challenges facing the country and organised these around four drivers that were seen to
underpin our present and future: leadership and governance, economic development,
education, and race and identity. Within this framework, specific focus was placed on values
and accountability, unemployment, poverty and inequality, educational performance and
the skills deficit, and nation-building. The team also pinpointed other critical challenges
including the state of public health, the threat of crime, and the situation of the youth.
There are many inspiring leaders,
like the Ma Tshepos of the world.
They are leaders without needing
to hold status, without needing to
be deployed. This leadership comes
often not from “connected BEE
people”, but from people with
limited budgets and resources who
nonetheless make things happen.
Their social entrepreneurship
is inspiring. By contrast, there
is “indifferent obfuscating
officialdom”, like the [official] who
was late to meet us, self-important
and very busy. The heraldry of
power makes these officials
uninterested in the citizens they
are meant to be serving.
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3 FUTURES FOR SOUTH AFRICA 3