Presentation - Origin Energy

Origin Energy
Macquarie Australia Conference
May 2009

Important Notice
This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any
securities in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). This presentation is for information purposes only, is in a
summary form, and does not purport to be complete. This presentation does not take into account the investment
objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any investor, potential investor or any other person. No investment
decision should be made in reliance on this presentation. Independent financial and taxation advice should be sought before
making any investment decision.
Certain statements in this presentation are in the nature of forward looking statements, including statements of current
intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact
and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking
statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the
actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks,
uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot be predicted by
Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances
and events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures
and associated undertakings operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the
regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which
may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised. None of Origin or any of its respective
subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents) (the "Relevant
Persons") makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward
looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. In addition, statements about
past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance. The forward looking statements in this presentation
reflect views held only at the date of this presentation. Subject to any continuing obligations under law or the ASX Listing
Rules, Origin and the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to disseminate after the date of this
presentation any updates or revisions to any forward looking statements to reflect any change in expectations in relation to
any forward looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which such statements are based.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the
information in this presentation and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Origin or any of the Relevant
Persons in relation to it. In particular, Origin does not endorse, and is not responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any
information in this presentation relating to a third party.
All references to "$" are references to Australian dollars unless otherwise specified.
A reference to Contact is a reference to Contact Energy of New Zealand, a 51% subsidiary of Origin.
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The past year has seen challenging times for global financial
markets and investors
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Indexed to 100 from 1 April 2008
Source: Origin & Bloomberg data
During that time Origin has benefited from a chain of
events initiated by the BG bid and underpinned by
Origin’s strategic positioning

At this conference last year we talked about our CSG
position and the opportunities created by emerging carbon
policy as the key drivers of value for Origin
Origin has an extensive acreage position across the two
prime CSG fairways in Queensland
• Origin’s share of 2P reserves is 2,470
PJ (July 2007), while 3P reserves are
estimated at 4,578 PJ (quotes exclude
exploration potential)
• In February this year Origin targeted
an additional 500 PJ of 2P reserves by
30 June 2008 - now likely to be
around 1,000 PJ
• At gas netback prices reflecting
current market conditions in Asia, a
resource base of around 10,000 PJ
may be recoverable from this acreage
Our integrated strategy, together with a potential LNG
channel to market, allows all reserves to be monetized
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Bowen Basin CSG
Fairview & Spring Gully
Fields
2P reserves: 1,677 PJ
3P reserves: 2,226 PJ
Walloons Exploration
No reserves booked
Walloon (Undulla Nose) CSG
Talinga, Argyle & Kenya
fields
2P reserves: 793 PJ
3P reserves: 2,352 PJ
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A domestic carbon price above $20-30 per tonne would put
strong upward pressure on gas prices
Short run marginal Marginal costs Generation of generation Costs vs Carbon vs Price carbon price
Price of electricity, $/MWh
$/MWh
140
120
swap coal for Swap gas
gas current price
100
for coal
80 80
60 60
40 40
Brown CCGT (3.5)
20 20
CCGT
NSW Black current
Black (range)
-
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
$/T
Price of carbon, $/T
• Coal currently sets the benchmark
price for electricity and is cheaper
than gas (though coal prices are
increasing)
• But with a carbon charge over $20
to $30 per tonne:
­ Gas has a cost advantage
relative to coal
­ An integrated gas player like
Origin captures the difference
between the price set by coalfired
generation and the cost
of gas-fired generation
Origin with its integrated strategy can access all the
upside associated with increased electricity prices
Extracts from Origin’s Macquarie Conference presentation May 2008
The events of last year significantly strengthened Origin’s
balance sheet. The continued development of Origin’s CSG
interests, now in APLNG, and appropriate positioning in
response to emerging carbon policy still remain the key
strategic drivers of value
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Origin’s existing CSG assets now sit in a 50:50 joint venture with
ConocoPhillips called APLNG. APLNG is progressing well
APLNG Established
• Board and Senior management appointed
• $2.3 billion work program to FID underway
• Initial Advice Statement submitted and project declared as
Significant by the Queensland Government
Origin as Upstream Operator continues to deliver reserves and
production growth
• CSG reserves increased by net 731 PJ 2P and 972 PJ 3P in six
months to December 2008
• 300 people working in the Upstream operations
ConocoPhillips as Downstream Operator is effectively progressing
the LNG development
• LNG site discussions progressed with Dept of Infrastructure
• Technology selection process complete – ConocoPhillips’
proprietary Optimized Cascade SM process
• Shipping studies and marketing plans underway
Upcoming Milestones
• Announcement of site selection
• Further CSG reserves upgrade
• Customer contracts
• Final Investment Decision
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Pictures (from top to bottom): An operating APLNG CSG well, APLNG’s Taloona gas plant, APLNG’s Initial Advice Statement

APLNG continues strong growth in CSG reserves and production
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Notes:
Origin has a 50% interest in APLNG
Reserves as at 1 January 2009 are shown net of CSG production for H1 FY 2009
Source: Origin
APLNG now supplies the equivalent of 25% of Queensland’s
gas and will increase production into the domestic market
to over 100 PJ per annum by 2011

APLNG has the leading CSG reserves position…
Source: Origin based on EnergyQuest data
… with a plan to mature reserves sufficient to support
FID for a multi-train LNG project by the end of 2010
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Origin has entered into a conditional agreement to acquire
ATP 788P on the southerly extension of the Undulla Nose
• On 22 April 2009 Origin entered into a conditional
agreement to acquire a 100% interest in ATP 788P
from the Pangaea group, subject to certain
conditions precedent
• Consideration of $660 million to be funded from
existing cash reserves
• Origin expects to book 3P CSG reserves of around
1,150 PJ following completion of this transaction,
together with further contingent resources (2C) of
approximately 500 PJ
• Under Origin’s joint venture arrangement with
ConocoPhillips, Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) has
until late May 2009 to elect to acquire the interest
in ATP 788P
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The quality of the CSG resource in the Undulla Nose,
together with its proximity to existing Origin acreage and
infrastructure make this an ideal acquisition to place gas
into either domestic or export markets

Continued growth is forecast for LNG demand in the Asia
Pacific in both traditional and emerging markets
400
350
LNG Demand Asia Pac
300
250
mmtpa
200
150
100
50
0
9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Japan South Korea China
India Kuwait Singapore
Taiwan Thailand UAE (Dubai)
Asia Pac Regas Capacity
Source: Origin based on Wood Mackenzie, Global LNG Online, LNG Insights May 2009
… and while the near term outlook could deteriorate with
the economic crisis, existing re-gasification capacity is
likely to ensure a rapid recovery when conditions improve
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

Many LNG projects are proposed around the world – however
projects of this scale and complexity have a history of being
delayed – creating opportunities for new, well aligned and well
credentialed opportunities
Fewer projects are now
proposed than in past years –
with almost all projects
seeking to reach FID in 2009
located in Australia
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In the Asian market in particular there has been a trend
towards oil price parity...
LNG Pricing in Asia Pacific
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Source: Origin based on Wood Mackenzie, Global LNG Online, LNG Insights April 2008
… which has resulted in higher netbacks for gas and has
been a key driver of emerging interest in CSG

While the short term oil price has moved significantly in the last
year, the long dated price has moved much more modestly
12
Source: Origin based on Bloomberg data May 2009
As a result, the netbacks for LNG for delivery commencing
in 2013-2015 have not changed materially and the project
economics remain attractive

The Federal Government’s policy response to Climate Change has
followed a dual pathway of a mandated renewable energy target…
Renewable Energy Target Scheme
• New scheme starts in January 2010
• 2020 target of 45,000 GWh (from a current base of 9,500 GWh)
• Target maintained until 2030 at which point the RET will conclude
• Fixed (un-indexed) shortfall charge of $65/MWh - equivalent to
$92.86/MWh pre-tax (from prior shortfall charge of $40/MWh)
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
• Commencement deferred to 2011
• Permit price fixed at $10/tonne for one year
• Target reduction in emissions between 5% and 25% depending on
international agreement on climate change measures
… combined with a carbon emissions trading scheme that is
wide ranging and flexible to meet its policy objectives
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The expanded Renewable Energy Target to 45 TWh by 2020
has a slow start and a greater rate of increase in later years…
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• Potential capital investment in excess of $20 billion required to meet this target
• Origin, with around 20% electricity market share nationally, will need to acquit
its share of this target
… providing an opportunity to ramp up investment in the
technologies most cost effective in the long term – rather
than over committing to technologies available today

While the RET will drive deployment of renewable generation to
meet some of the growing demand for electricity it is not
competitively priced generation for the balance of the market
Source: Origin based on NEMMCO SOO 2008 data
• The NEMMCO 2008 Statement of
Opportunities has forecast that
new capacity is required in the
NEM as a whole by 2013/14
• By State NEMMCO has forecast
that new capacity is required
­ In Vic-SA by the summer of
2008/09 (on 29,30 January
2009 there were extensive
customer outages in Vic and
SA due to shortage of
generation)
­ In Queensland by the summer
of 2013/14
­ In NSW by the summer of
2014/15
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Significant investment in new peaking and base load
generation is needed to meet the balance of generation
requirements across the National Electricity Market

Origin has positioned itself to respond to these policies through a
portfolio of renewable energy options…
Wind turbine blades being delivered to Cullerin Range
Drilling floor of Geodynamics’ Rig 100 pre-spud
Source: Geodynamics
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Wind
• Origin initially invested in wind through third parties
– underwriting wind-farm developments by others –
and has more than 390 MW of wind farm capacity
under long term power purchase agreements
• Construction of the 30 MW wind farm at Cullerin
Range is well progressed with commissioning
expected in mid-2009
• The acquisition of Wind Power adds 1,460 MW of
development sites to the 60 MW already held by
Origin. This is in addition to the option on up to 500
MW of wind farm development sites from Epuron
that Origin holds
Geothermal
• Geodynamics’ Proof of Concept closed loop testing completed
in late March 2009
• Commercial Demonstration stage commenced
• Recent well incident at Habenero 3 being investigated
• Origin believes that hot-rock geothermal power developed at
scale could provide a superior long-term solution to meeting
its RET targets
… combining certainty in meeting short term requirements
with flexibility in achieving long-term cost effective solutions

Origin has actively supported wind projects since early this
decade by underwriting a number of wind-farms with long term
power purchase agreements with developers using lower costs of
capital…
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Source: Origin
With higher renewable energy targets and the withdrawal
of developers with access to cheap capital, Origin
commenced its own physical build and has secured an
extensive portfolio of wind options with high capacity
factors in good locations in NSW and Victoria

The acquisition of Wind Power represents the most recent
addition to this portfolio and its current pipeline reflects the
continued high quality of projects developed to date…
Wind Power's Victorian Project Pipeline Highlights
Project
Location
MW
Estimated Capacity
Factor*
Land
Status
Lexton
VIC
38
40%
Secure
DA approved
Stockyard Hill
VIC
484
40%
Secure
DA lodged
Tuki
VIC
60
34%
Secure
DA in preparation
Greens
VIC
878
35%
Access secure
DA in preparation
1,460
* P50 Subject to further testing
Wind Power's Victorian Projects to Date
Project
Wonthaggi
Waubra
Bald Hills
Location
VIC
VIC
VIC
MW
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192
104
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Wonthaggi turbines being lifted
Source: Wind Power
• Wind Power have developed half of the
wind farm capacity currently operating in
Victoria
… and Wind Power has a track record of delivering high
quality wind projects

Uncertainty around the Carbon Pollution reduction Scheme is
complicating investment decisions for generation for the balance
of the market
• The likelihood of an ETS is discouraging
investment in new coal fired baseload
generation
• The currently proposed CPRS does not
support investment in baseload gas fired
generation
• The RET scheme adds new generation but
increases intermittency
• Origin is building mainly gas fired open
cycle generation to ensure sufficient
capacity is available to support its retail
business
• This capacity will benefit from fuel
switching from coal to gas should the
carbon price increase in the medium term
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Origin’s generation development strategy responds to the
carbon policy environment through investment in gas
fired open cycle generation and development options for
baseload gas, wind and geothermal generation

If there is a delay in the build out of required capacity, supply
constraints in the NEM pose a more significant price risk than the
imposition of a carbon value…
Impact of June 2007
Supply Constraints
Carbon
Impact
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Source: NEMMCO, ICAP & Origin
… which is why Origin believes that it is now necessary to
provide certainty by finalising and implementing an
effective emissions trading scheme
Spot Price
Year 1 Contract Price
Year 2 Contract Price
Year 3 Contract Price
$20/t Carbon Price

Origin is in a strong strategic position with many opportunities to
continue to develop and grow the business…
As at 31 December 2008
(1) (2)
(1)
Adjusted
Gross Debt
Cash
Undrawn
Committed
Debt Facilities
Available
Funding
Capacity
Source: Origin
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… and with access to cash and un-drawn committed debt
facilities of $6.4 billion as at 31 December 2008, Origin
can fund this growth
(1) Net Cash/(Debt) excluding mark to market adjustments on debt
(2) Uranquinty acquisition includes debt assumed on acquisition
Note: All amounts exclude Contact

Origin Energy
Macquarie Australia Conference
May 2009

Further Information
Investors
Angus Guthrie
Manager, Investor Relations
Email: angus.guthrie@originenergy.com.au
Office: +61-2-8345 5558
Mobile: +61-4-1786 4255
Website
www.originenergy.com.au
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