ABSTRACTS, cont.

Multi-zone proportional hazard model for a multi-stage degradation process
MSEC2013-1113
Lin Li, Ph.D., Zeyi Sun, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, United States, Xinwei Xu, U of Michigan, Ann Arbor,
MI, United States, Kaifu Zhang, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xian, China
Conditional-based maintenance (CBM) decision-making is of high interests in recent years due to its better
performance on cost efficiency compared to other traditional policies. One of the most respected methods based
on condition-monitoring data for maintenance decision-making is Proportional Hazards Model (PHM). It utilizes
condition-monitoring data as covariates and identifies their effects on the lifetime of a component. Conventional
modeling process of PHM only treats the degradation process as a whole lifecycle. In this paper, the PHM is
advanced to describe a multi-zone degradation system considering the fact that the lifecycle of a machine can be
divided into several different degradation stages. The methods to estimate reliability and performance prognostics
are developed based on the proposed multi-zone PHM to predict the remaining time that the machine stays at
the current stage before transferring into the next stage and the remaining useful life (RUL). The results illustrate
that the multi-zone PHM effectively monitors the equipment status change and leads to a more accurate RUL
prediction compared with traditional PHM.
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