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Input Capital (TSXV: INP) – Initiating Coverage - First ... - Baystreet.ca

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Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA, CFA<br />

Analyst<br />

Daniel Iwata, BA<br />

Research Associate<br />

August 1, 2013<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> (<strong>TSXV</strong>: <strong>INP</strong>) – <strong>Initiating</strong> <strong>Coverage</strong> - <strong>First</strong> Agriculture Streaming Public Company in<br />

Canada - Focus on Canola<br />

Sector/Industry: Agriculture<br />

www.input<strong>ca</strong>pital.com<br />

Market Data (as of August 1, 2013)<br />

Current Price<br />

C$1.75<br />

Fair Value<br />

C$3.00<br />

Rating*<br />

BUY<br />

Risk*<br />

4 (Speculative)<br />

52 Week Range N/A<br />

Shares O/S 35,577,273<br />

Market Cap<br />

C$62.26 million<br />

Current Yield<br />

N/A<br />

P/E (forward) 41.2x<br />

P/B 2.7x<br />

YoY Return<br />

N/A<br />

YoY <strong>TSXV</strong> -21.8%<br />

*see back of report for rating and risk definitions<br />

Financial Summary (FYE - Mar 31)<br />

Investment Highlights<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> (“<strong>Input</strong>”) is an agriculture streaming company. The company<br />

advances funds to farm operators, and in return receives the right to purchase a<br />

set amount of tonnage of the crop produced every year, at a low fixed price, for<br />

5 – 7 years. <strong>Input</strong> may also purchase additional tonnage from farm operators<br />

based on the farmer’s annual yield performance.<br />

• The current focus is on <strong>ca</strong>nola, which is Canada’s largest crop by revenue.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> went public on July 22, 2013.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong>’s management has extensive experience in the agricultural industry. They<br />

have operated three <strong>ca</strong>nola investment funds, and currently operate the<br />

Assiniboia farmland fund.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> does not take any operational control in the farms. They have no exposure<br />

to operating or <strong>ca</strong>pital cost overruns. Their exposure to crop yield volatility is<br />

protected through crop insurance. The primary risk for <strong>Input</strong> is their exposure to<br />

Canola prices.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> offers farm operators many benefits over traditional agriculture financing,<br />

including longer terms, flexibility in structure, etc. Most importantly, <strong>Input</strong><br />

allows farmers to raise <strong>ca</strong>pital without issuing debt or equity.<br />

• Management raised $24.35 million (gross) in November 2012, and reports that,<br />

as of early July 2013, $19 million has been deployed in streaming contracts.<br />

Risks<br />

• Expected returns will drop, or rise, if any of the inputs used in our base <strong>ca</strong>se<br />

scenario move unfavourably, or more favourably, respectively.<br />

• Deployment of <strong>ca</strong>pital in a timely manner is crucial.<br />

• Returns are very sensitive to the price of Canola; low prices could adversely<br />

affect <strong>Input</strong>’s income stream.<br />

• There is no prior history of agriculture streaming business returns. <strong>Input</strong>, to our<br />

knowledge, will be the first agriculture streaming company.<br />

• The farmers may breach their streaming contract.<br />

• New streaming companies may enter the market.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> may raise additional <strong>ca</strong>pital through share issuance, which may dilute<br />

current equity holders.<br />

2012 2013E 2014E<br />

<strong>Capital</strong> Deployed $ 6,000,000 $ 19,500,000 $ 25,282,288<br />

Revenues - $6,581,250 $8,532,772<br />

EBIT Margin N/A 32% 36%<br />

Net Income $ (369,606) $ 1,555,813 $ 2,250,632<br />

EPS (basic) $ (0.03) $ 0.04 $<br />

0.06<br />

Total Assets $ 24,167,799 $ 25,752,011 $ 28,129,492<br />

ROE N/A 6.34% 8.51%<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Corporation focuses on providing farm operators with <strong>ca</strong>pital through streaming contracts. The company was<br />

founded in 2011, and began operations in late 2012. We expect revenues and net income of $7M and $1.6M (EPS: $0.04) in<br />

FY2013.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 2<br />

Overview<br />

Previous funds<br />

operated by<br />

management<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Corporation (“<strong>Input</strong>”), headquartered in Regina, Saskatchewan, was founded in<br />

October 2011, and started operations in late 2012. Management claims <strong>Input</strong> is the world’s<br />

first agriculture streaming company. Through streaming contracts, <strong>Input</strong> advances funds to<br />

farm operators, and in return, receives the right to purchase a fixed tonnage of <strong>ca</strong>nola, for no<br />

payment or a low fixed price, for a term of 5-7 years. <strong>Input</strong> engages in a number of<br />

mitigating strategies to limit the volatility of farming and non-delivery by the farmer. As of<br />

June 30, 2013, management states <strong>Input</strong> has raised $24.35 million through private<br />

placements, and deployed $19 million. <strong>Input</strong>’s shares started trading on the TSX Venture<br />

Exchange on July 22, 2013.<br />

Management of <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> also currently runs Assiniboia <strong>Capital</strong> Corp., which is a Regina<br />

based investment company. Assiniboia <strong>Capital</strong> Corp. was founded in 2005, with the launch<br />

of the Assiniboia Farmland Limited Partnership. The Farmland LP is one of the largest<br />

farmland fund in Canada, and has approximately 115,000 acres owned and under<br />

management. According to management, the farmland fund has returned a 20.2% IRR (net<br />

of fees) since inception. Assiniboia consisted of four separate LPs that were combined into a<br />

single entity in 2009. The December 31, 2010, audited statements for Assiniboia reported a<br />

Net Asset Value (“NAV”) of $30.30. The December 31, 2012 statements showed the NAV<br />

increased to $51.75.<br />

Management has previously operated three Limited Partnership (“LP”) private funds that<br />

invested in <strong>ca</strong>nola. These businesses had a very different model than <strong>Input</strong>. They were one<br />

year joint ventures with farmers, where the fund received a percentage of the crop yield for<br />

that year. This exposed the fund to volatility in yield due to weather, harvest, etc. The three<br />

LPs were formed in 2009, 2010 and 2011, and raised a total of $7.1 million. Returns data for<br />

the LPs are not available as they were private funds. However, as discussed below, the high<br />

percentage of investors who transferred their units to <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong>, we believe, indi<strong>ca</strong>tes<br />

they were satisfied with their investment.<br />

LP unit holders were given the opportunity to convert their LP units into <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> shares<br />

in November 2012. At this time, the LPs had no business operations, their assets consisted<br />

only of <strong>ca</strong>sh and receivables. The majority of the investors in LP2 (87.1%), and LP3<br />

(90.8%), transferred their units into <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong>. LP1, however, transferred only 25% of<br />

units into <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong>, which is due to one large investor who controlled over 70% of the<br />

fund not transferring their shares. For LP 2 and 3, the <strong>ca</strong>sh and receivables held by the LPs<br />

were transferred to <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong>. Cash and receivables of LP1 will be transferred as LP1 is<br />

still in the winding down process.<br />

Streaming<br />

business model<br />

Management states that the ‘streaming structure’ concept was derived from their<br />

experience operating the three previous <strong>ca</strong>nola funds, and the business model of<br />

established metals streaming businesses. Some of the key factors for creating a streaming<br />

public company are:<br />

• Farm operators prefer long-term <strong>ca</strong>pital commitments.<br />

• Management wanted to establish a permanent <strong>ca</strong>pital base instead of a<br />

partnership/fund structure where investors could redeem.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 3<br />

• Public company status gives better access to <strong>ca</strong>pital.<br />

• There was more operational involvement for management in the joint ventures. With<br />

a streaming contract, management takes no operational control in the farm.<br />

The streaming business model and the differences between agriculture and metal streaming<br />

are discussed below.<br />

What is streaming<br />

There are many notable streaming companies in the metals industry as it is a popular way for<br />

companies to raise <strong>ca</strong>pital without taking on a large degree of debt or diluting shareholders<br />

through equity financings. Due to the high <strong>ca</strong>pital expenditure requirement for mines, metal<br />

streaming contracts allow for upfront payments in exchange for a portion of the metal mined<br />

in the future. Notable streaming companies in the mining industry include Silver Wheaton<br />

(NYSE: SLW; market <strong>ca</strong>pitalization - US$8 billion), Franco-Nevada Corporation (NYSE:<br />

FNV; market <strong>ca</strong>pitalization - $7 billion), Sandstorm Gold (TSX: SSL; market <strong>ca</strong>pitalization -<br />

$640 million), etc. These metal streamers trade at high P/E ratios, and P/CF, be<strong>ca</strong>use of<br />

their high earnings and <strong>ca</strong>sh flow projections in the future. They also have very strong<br />

EBIT margins, as shown in the table below.<br />

Company Ticker Price<br />

Price/<br />

Diluted EPS<br />

before extra P/CF Revenue (mm) EV ($, mm) EBIT Margins<br />

Sandstorm Gold TSX: SSL $ 6.11 43.7 15.6 55.9 547.6 37.9%<br />

Silver Wheaton TSX: SLW $ 23.73 17.2 12.0 886.2 8,989.5 70.6%<br />

Franco - Nevada Corp TSX: FNV $ 44.42 41.8 22.2 445.4 5,200.7 34.4%<br />

Royal Gold Nasdaq: RGLD $ 50.59 35.6 20.6 292 2,635.4 60.1%<br />

* Stock prices as of July 29, 2013<br />

* Revenue and EBIT margins for year ended December 31, 2012<br />

* P/Diluted EPS based on FY2013 estimate<br />

- Source: <strong>Capital</strong> IQ<br />

The following lists some of the benefits <strong>Input</strong> has over metal streamers.<br />

• Once <strong>ca</strong>pital is deployed, <strong>Input</strong> receives a return in the first year. For most metal<br />

streaming contracts, once <strong>ca</strong>pital is deployed, a mine and/or necessary infrastructure<br />

needs to be constructed, which <strong>ca</strong>n take years before the project sees <strong>ca</strong>sh flows.<br />

• Crop insurance provides protection against yield volatility. Metal streams have no<br />

insurance to guarantee a set amount of product.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> deploys their <strong>ca</strong>pital within the western provinces of Canada. Mining<br />

streamers, listed above, deploy <strong>ca</strong>pital worldwide, which increases politi<strong>ca</strong>l risks.<br />

The major downside to agriculture streaming is the life of the contract. For the initial<br />

payment, mining contracts are usually for the life of the mine, which <strong>ca</strong>n be 20+ years. <strong>Input</strong><br />

has short-term contracts that need to be renewed every 5-7 years. Despite this, we feel that<br />

the relationships <strong>Input</strong> will build with their operators (during the 5-7 year term) should lead<br />

to high renewal rates. Mines also have a finite life, where farms <strong>ca</strong>n continually produce,<br />

leading to good long term renewal prospects for <strong>Input</strong>.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 4<br />

We feel that <strong>Input</strong> has a very strong management team, and board of directors, with<br />

experience in agriculture and finance. We also feel they have specific <strong>ca</strong>nola farming<br />

knowledge to successfully operate <strong>Input</strong>.<br />

Management<br />

Bios<br />

Brief biographies, as provided by management, are presented below:<br />

Doug Emsley- Director, President, and CEO<br />

Mr. Emsley is the President, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of <strong>Input</strong>. He also serves<br />

in a similar <strong>ca</strong>pacity at Assiniboia <strong>Capital</strong> Corp., which currently manages a $150 million<br />

portfolio of Saskatchewan farmland on behalf of investors in Assiniboia Farmland Limited<br />

Partnership, which owns and rents approximately 115,000 acres of Saskatchewan farmland<br />

to farmers. Mr. Emsley has a wide array of business and professional experience. He is the<br />

President of Emsley & Associates (2002) Inc., which operates an executive business centre<br />

in downtown Regina, Chairman and CEO of Security Resource Group Inc. (an IT and<br />

physi<strong>ca</strong>l security firm), and Sabre West Oil & Gas Ltd. (an oil & gas company). Mr. Emsley<br />

previously built Vision Security & Investigations Inc. into the largest security firm in<br />

western Canada, before selling the company to Securitas Canada Limited. Mr. Emsley has<br />

also been appointed as a director of Information Services Corporation (TSX: ISV)<br />

Mr. Emsley is a director of the Bank of Canada, Greenfield Carbon Offsetters Inc., a<br />

start-up involved in the creation of <strong>ca</strong>rbon credits, the Public Policy Forum, and of the<br />

Saskatchewan Roughrider Football Club. He was previously a trustee of Royal Utilities<br />

Income Fund (RU.UN-T), then a TSX-listed income trust involved in the mining of thermal<br />

coal in western Canada, where he also served as Chair of the Audit Committee. Mr. Emsley<br />

has an MBA from York University in Toronto.<br />

Brad Farquhar: Director, Executive VP and CFO<br />

Mr. Farquhar co-founded <strong>Input</strong> and Assiniboia <strong>Capital</strong> Corp. with Mr. Emsley and serves as<br />

Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer to both companies and as a director to<br />

<strong>Input</strong>. Mr. Farquhar is a trained financial planner and has completed the Canadian Securities<br />

Course of the Canadian Securities Institute. He received a Master of Public Administration<br />

degree in Electoral Governance from Griffith University in Australia, studied politi<strong>ca</strong>l<br />

science at Carleton University, and completed a Bachelor of Arts in Liberal Arts at<br />

Providence College. He has been engaged as an international consultant on matters related to<br />

the conduct of elections in Central Asia, the Middle East, and the Caribbean. He has also<br />

been a part-time faculty member in the Department of Politi<strong>ca</strong>l Science at the University of<br />

Regina. Mr. Farquhar previously served as Executive Director of the Saskatchewan Party (a<br />

politi<strong>ca</strong>l party forming the Official Opposition in Saskatchewan), and as Executive Assistant<br />

to the Leader of the Opposition in Saskatchewan.<br />

Mr. Farquhar is a Director of Greenfield Carbon Offsetters Inc., a start-up involved in the<br />

creation of <strong>ca</strong>rbon credits, the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, and Chair of the board of<br />

directors of SIM Canada. He is a former director of the International Centre for Human<br />

Rights and Democratic Development and the Regina & District Chamber of Commerce.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 5<br />

Gord Nystuen – Vice-President, Market Development<br />

Mr. Nystuen is currently the Vice-President, Market Development of <strong>Input</strong>. He has played an<br />

important role in the development and growth of <strong>Input</strong>’s <strong>ca</strong>nola streaming business. He has<br />

an extensive background in a variety of senior roles in the Saskatchewan Government,<br />

including Vice-President, Corporate Affairs, at Saskatchewan Power Corporation, Deputy<br />

Minister of Agriculture, Chief of Staff to the Premier, Chairman of Saskatchewan Crop<br />

Insurance Corporation, and a variety of other roles in transportation, gaming, health, and<br />

finance. He has also been a director of the Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership<br />

(STEP), and the Saskatchewan Agrivision Corporation. Prior to his roles in government, Mr.<br />

Nystuen had a background in commercial and agricultural lending. Mr. Nystuen is a director<br />

of Avena Foods Ltd., a specialized oat processor based in Regina. He grew up on a farm near<br />

Nai<strong>ca</strong>m, Saskatchewan, and is a partner in Golden Acres Seed Farm. In 2009, Mr. Nystuen<br />

managed a project for Assiniboia <strong>Capital</strong> Corp. on behalf of a large corporate client<br />

conducting a $20 million land acquisition program in Saskatchewan.<br />

Board of<br />

Directors<br />

David A. Brown, Q.C. – Director<br />

Mr. Brown is Counsel at Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg LLP. Mr. Brown served as<br />

chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) from<br />

April 1998 to June 2005. Prior to joining the OSC, he was a senior corporate law partner<br />

with a predecessor firm to Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg for 29 years, focusing on<br />

mergers and acquisitions, corporate finance and reorganization. He is a Director and Member<br />

of the Funds Advisory Board at Invesco Trimark Group of Mutual Funds and a Member of<br />

the Investment Advisory Board at Westerkirk <strong>Capital</strong> Inc. In addition, Mr. Brown is a<br />

member of the Dean’s Advisory Council at the Wilfrid Laurier School of Business and<br />

Economics, the founding chair of the Council of Governors for the Canadian Public<br />

Accountability Board, and a standing Member of the Audit and Assurances Standards<br />

Oversight Council. Mr. Brown is a past chair of the Techni<strong>ca</strong>l Committee and a member of<br />

the Executive Committee of the International Organization of Securities Commissions. He<br />

was appointed Queen's Counsel in 1984, a member of the Order of Canada in 2009 and he<br />

received the Queen’s Jubilee Medal in 2012. Mr. Brown received an honorary doctorate of<br />

laws from McMaster University in 2005, his LL.B from the University of Toronto in 1966<br />

and his Bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering from Carleton University in 1963.<br />

David Laidley –Director<br />

Mr. Laidley is Chairman Emeritus of Deloitte LLP (Canada), an audit and financial services<br />

firm, where he was a partner from 1975 until his retirement in 2007. Mr. Laidley served as<br />

Chairman of Deloitte & Touche LLP from 2000 to 2006 and during that time, he also served<br />

on the Global Board of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu as well as its Governance Committee and<br />

he chaired its Audit Committee. As a chartered accountant, he has enjoyed a distinguished<br />

<strong>ca</strong>reer spanning 40 years with Canada’s largest professional services firm, with<br />

specialization in its tax and audit practices. Applying his background in tax, he has<br />

counseled many clients in the areas of corporate reorganizations, acquisitions and<br />

divestitures. Mr. Laidley serves on the boards of Aimia Inc., EMCOR Group Inc., ProSep<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 6<br />

Inc., Bank of Canada, Nautilus Indemnity Holdings Limited (where he is Chairman), and on<br />

a number of other boards of private institutions and foundations. Mr. Laidley is a Fellow of<br />

the Ordre des comptables professionnels agréés du Québec (CPA) and holds a Bachelor of<br />

Commerce degree from McGill University.<br />

Dr. Lorne Hepworth – Director<br />

Dr. Hepworth is President of CropLife Canada, the national trade association representing<br />

developers, manufacturers and distributors of plant science innovations for use in agriculture,<br />

urban and public health settings. Dr. Hepworth is currently the Chair of the Board of<br />

Genome Canada, a member of the Board of CARE Canada and on the Canadian<br />

International Food Security Research Fund Scientific Advisory Committee. He is also a<br />

member of the Independent Review Committee for Assiniboia Farmland Limited<br />

Partnership. He recently served on the Expert Panel on Sustainability Management of Water<br />

in Agriculture. He has served as a member of the Advisory Board of the National Research<br />

Council of Canada, Plant Biotechnology Institute, the Canadian Agri-Food Research<br />

Council, the federal Pest Management Advisory Committee and National Biotechnology<br />

Advisory Committee. A graduate of the Western College of Veterinary Medicine at the<br />

University of Saskatchewan (1971), Dr. Hepworth was a veterinarian in Alberta and<br />

Saskatchewan until 1982, when he was elected to Saskatchewan’s Legislative Assembly. He<br />

subsequently served nine years in Cabinet, during which he was minister of Agriculture,<br />

Edu<strong>ca</strong>tion, Finance, and Energy and Mines. From 1993 to 1997, he held several executive<br />

positions with the Canadian Agra group of companies specializing in agri-food/feed<br />

production, processing and marketing.<br />

Agriculture as<br />

an Asset Class<br />

The following discusses the key features of investing in agriculture.<br />

Diversifi<strong>ca</strong>tion benefits: The correlation (December 2010 – April 2013) between soybeans<br />

and the S&P 500 is 0.29, which indi<strong>ca</strong>tes that soybeans offer good diversifi<strong>ca</strong>tion benefits.<br />

We feel that soybeans and <strong>ca</strong>nola are highly correlated be<strong>ca</strong>use they have similar<br />

appli<strong>ca</strong>tions. The charts below illustrate the above two points.<br />

Source: <strong>Capital</strong>ogix<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 7<br />

Source: Barchart<br />

Inflation: Intuitively, soybeans/<strong>ca</strong>nola should provide a hedge against inflation, similar to<br />

asset <strong>ca</strong>tegories, such as land and commodities. However, various studies that analyzed the<br />

price of soybeans from 1960-2012, have shown that there is no statisti<strong>ca</strong>lly signifi<strong>ca</strong>nt<br />

relationship between inflation and soybean prices.<br />

Strategy/Process<br />

The following presents an overview of the streaming process:<br />

<strong>Input</strong> enters into a contract with a farmer, whereby <strong>Input</strong> advances <strong>ca</strong>pital to the farmer for a<br />

term of 5-7 years. In return, <strong>Input</strong> receives the right to purchase a set amount of tonnage<br />

(“base tonnage”) at a fixed price. The fixed price, based on management’s current estimates,<br />

<strong>ca</strong>n be anywhere between $0 and $100 per tonne. <strong>Input</strong> may also purchase “bonus tonnage”<br />

from the farmer at the same set fixed price. The bonus tonnage will be based on the excess<br />

yield over the farmer’s long run average yield. The following diagram illustrates the typi<strong>ca</strong>l<br />

process.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 8<br />

Source: FRC<br />

<strong>Input</strong><br />

Streaming<br />

Contracts<br />

The first step in the streaming contract process is adequately <strong>ca</strong>pitalizing the farmer so they<br />

<strong>ca</strong>n optimally farm their land. Management generally wants the farmer to have $300 per<br />

acre of working <strong>ca</strong>pital, which they feel is the cost to optimally farm each acre. They will<br />

look at the farmer’s finances, historic yield, and conduct a financial analysis to structure a<br />

contract that is acceptable for both parties. After <strong>Input</strong> has an idea of the <strong>ca</strong>pital<br />

requirements required by the farmer, they will use a conservative <strong>ca</strong>nola price, and determine<br />

the amount of annual tonnage required to generate at least a 20% return.<br />

Estimated expenses incurred by a typi<strong>ca</strong>l <strong>ca</strong>nola farm operator, according to the Ontario<br />

Ministry of Agriculture and Food (“OMAF”), are shown in the table below. Keep in mind<br />

that farming costs in Saskatchewan and the western provinces may have slight variations.<br />

As shown in the chart, fertilizer is the largest expense in farming, followed by seeding. We<br />

feel that the $300 per acre working <strong>ca</strong>pital target <strong>Input</strong> has set would meet the needs of the<br />

majority of farmers. It would also allow some additional <strong>ca</strong>pital for unexpected expenses.<br />

Keep in mind, that streaming contract financing may decrease some of these costs (for<br />

example, be<strong>ca</strong>use financing is received upfront, the farmer <strong>ca</strong>n make better purchase timing<br />

decisions with regard to items like fertilizer).<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 9<br />

Source: Ontario Ministry of Agriculture and Food<br />

.<br />

An example of a streaming contract is shown below for a $1 million initial payment. Based<br />

on the price of <strong>ca</strong>nola less annual payments (fixed price), an annual base tonnage is set.<br />

Farms usually only have a percentage of their land seeded with Canola, but <strong>ca</strong>n use the initial<br />

payment for the whole farm. On average, <strong>Input</strong> will require 0.52 tonnes of <strong>ca</strong>nola per acre<br />

per year from the farmer. Over the last 5 years, the average tonnes per acre per year<br />

produced in Canada was 0.75 tonnes, indi<strong>ca</strong>ting that <strong>Input</strong> receives approximately 70% of<br />

the total production (as per this example). Since 1990, the lowest annual tonnage per acre in<br />

Canada was 0.49 tonnes, indi<strong>ca</strong>ting that the 0.52 tonne mark provides good coverage for<br />

<strong>Input</strong>’s yield.<br />

Initial Payment $1,000,000<br />

Contract Length (years) 5<br />

Canola Price ($/t) less fixed annual payment $ 400<br />

Annual CF required for a 20% IRR $335,000<br />

Base tonnes required 838<br />

Farm Size (Based on a $300 per acre initial payment) 3,333<br />

Canola Acres (based on average) 1,600<br />

Tonnes of <strong>ca</strong>nola per acre due to <strong>Input</strong> 0.52<br />

Average tonnes per acre over last 5 years (Canola Council) 0.75<br />

Yield coverage (Yield due to <strong>Input</strong>/Average yield) 70%<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 10<br />

Expected <strong>ca</strong>sh flows from the above contract:<br />

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5<br />

Initial Investment $ (1,000,000)<br />

Canola Produced by the farm (tonnes) 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200<br />

Canola to <strong>Input</strong> (base tonnes) 838 838 838 838 838<br />

Cash flow to input $ 335,000 $ 335,000 $ 335,000 $ 335,000 $ 335,000<br />

The above <strong>ca</strong>sh flows would return an IRR of 20%.<br />

Benefits of<br />

streaming<br />

contracts<br />

Currently, farmers use traditional farm financing options, the most notable being Farm<br />

Credit Canada, The Canola Cash Advance from Agriculture Canada, institutional lenders<br />

such as large banks / credit unions, equipment leasing companies and loans through<br />

manufacturers (such as John Deere (NYSE: JD) etc.<br />

The Canola Cash Advance is a low cost financing method available from the advance<br />

payment program offered by Agriculture Canada. The <strong>ca</strong>sh advance is available at different<br />

parts of the harvest cycle, but mainly right before seeding or at the completion of seeding.<br />

The <strong>ca</strong>sh advance has a maximum of $400,000, which does not provide for enough <strong>ca</strong>pital<br />

for larger farms.<br />

We feel that <strong>Input</strong> offers an attractive offering for farm financing over traditional sources<br />

be<strong>ca</strong>use it does not require the farmer to give up equity or incur additional debt. A few other<br />

key benefits of the streaming model, for farmers, are discussed below.<br />

• Maximize output<br />

<strong>Input</strong>’s streaming contracts allow farmers to expand their asset base, and optimally farm<br />

their acreage. Funds must be used for farming related expenses including purchase new<br />

equipment, seed more acreage, hire more staff, hire an agrologist, etc.<br />

• Long-term agreements<br />

<strong>Input</strong> offers a long-term financial solution for farmers looking to expand their operations.<br />

Financing from competitors are usually for one year or the life of the harvest. With a<br />

long-term contract, farmers <strong>ca</strong>n focus on growing and maximizing their operations<br />

without worrying about securing financing every year. We feel this is a signifi<strong>ca</strong>nt<br />

advantage over other financing options.<br />

• Can buy inputs (fertilizer, pesticides, etc.) at off-market times<br />

The inputs used for farming such as fertilizer and pesticides are produced year around<br />

and due to seasonal lows in demand, inputs are often discounted up to 30% to entice<br />

purchases and keep inventory moving. This typi<strong>ca</strong>lly occurs near the end of the growing<br />

season, when most farmers have utilized their available <strong>ca</strong>sh on the current crop. The<br />

cost savings is signifi<strong>ca</strong>nt, approximately 25%-40% of the total farm’s operating<br />

expenses are from input costs (Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs,<br />

Ontario). This translates into up to a 12% savings on total operating costs if the farmers<br />

are able to purchase inputs at a discount. Management states that farmers also save by<br />

receiving discounts on inputs by paying <strong>ca</strong>sh, which could be as much as 3%.<br />

• Optimize sale time<br />

Canola prices are cycli<strong>ca</strong>l – prices tend to be the lowest right after harvest. Holding on<br />

to the <strong>ca</strong>nola and timing the sale <strong>ca</strong>n yield signifi<strong>ca</strong>nt price improvements. The graph<br />

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Page 11<br />

below shows the seasonality of <strong>ca</strong>nola prices - prices are highest near May/June, and<br />

lowest in October/November. The price fluctuations are primarily due to seasonal supply<br />

levels. Most financing companies require payment once the crop is harvested, leading<br />

farmers to sell during the lower price period. <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> allows farm operators to sell<br />

at optimal times be<strong>ca</strong>use they do not have to pay <strong>ca</strong>sh at harvest.<br />

Source: The Progressive Farmer<br />

We feel that the benefits offered by <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> would be very appealing to farmers who<br />

have limited <strong>ca</strong>pital available. The operator <strong>ca</strong>n save through discounted farming inputs,<br />

<strong>ca</strong>sh discounts, and no interest charges. They <strong>ca</strong>n also increase their <strong>ca</strong>sh flow through yield<br />

enhancements and better timing of sale. Overall, we believe, the effective cost of <strong>ca</strong>pital<br />

for <strong>Input</strong>’s financing is likely to be much lower than traditional forms of financing for<br />

famers with inadequate working <strong>ca</strong>pital.<br />

Limiting risks<br />

of farming<br />

Due to the volatile nature of farming, <strong>Input</strong> has put in place a number of conditions on the<br />

farmer to help ensure they get their required yield.<br />

Factors to mitigate risks/ enhance crop yield<br />

• Farms must use a third party agrologist, which helps to enhance crops through<br />

scientific means like soil sampling, productivity assessments, etc. The farmer pays<br />

for the agrologist, with costs starting at around $5 per acre. The increase in yield will<br />

vary from farm to farm, depending on a variety of factors, but using professional<br />

services limits crop risk.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> is looking to diversify its streaming contracts throughout Western Canada. By<br />

diversifying farm lo<strong>ca</strong>tions, it reduces the risks of weather and other conditions that<br />

could lead to a poor harvest.<br />

• Farmers must purchase crop insurance that covers 70% of the long-term average<br />

crop yield. The farmer covers the payment for the crop insurance. <strong>Input</strong> aims to<br />

keep their claim on the <strong>ca</strong>nola crops below 70%. If there is a poor crop, the farmer<br />

receives the insurance and <strong>ca</strong>n cover what is owed to <strong>Input</strong> with those funds. Since<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 12<br />

1986, the lowest crop yield was 60% of the last 5 year average.<br />

• Funds <strong>ca</strong>n only be used for farming related costs (fertilizer, fuel, pesticide, seeds<br />

etc.), pay down farming related debt, working <strong>ca</strong>pital, and to purchase equipment.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> ensures that they have a claim on the assets of the farmer in <strong>ca</strong>se the farmer<br />

breaches the contract.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> conducts extensive due diligence on each farmer. The due diligence process<br />

includes reviewing bank records, tax records, production records, payment schedules,<br />

leases, mortgages and previous crop insurance. In addition, they conduct land title<br />

searches and personal property registry. They do this to ensure that the farmer has a<br />

good history of meeting their obligations. <strong>Input</strong> also ensures the farm operators have<br />

the necessary skills and equipment to efficiently farm the land. Management also<br />

assesses the <strong>ca</strong>pital requirements of the farmer to see if their <strong>ca</strong>pital injection will<br />

benefit farming operations.<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> may also purchase and cover the cost of a life insurance policy on the farm<br />

operator equal to their initial investment. <strong>Input</strong> will be the beneficiary of the policy.<br />

• If the farmer <strong>ca</strong>nnot meet the owed tonnage, they <strong>ca</strong>n pay with another crop of equal<br />

value. <strong>Input</strong>’s management will determine the equivalent value of another crop.<br />

• Canola type and grade are specified in the contract to avoid farmers delivering poor<br />

quality product.<br />

Overall, we feel that <strong>Input</strong> has covered most of the major risks with farming and the<br />

streaming contract. We believe that the operation of the previous <strong>ca</strong>nola LPs helped them<br />

structure the contracts to mitigate risks.<br />

<strong>Input</strong> is still exposed to price risk, which will substantially affect the company’s<br />

performance. <strong>Input</strong> does not hedge the price of <strong>ca</strong>nola through derivative contracts.<br />

We feel this is a risk to investors due to the volatile nature of <strong>ca</strong>nola prices. However,<br />

hedging does not guarantee greater returns. Many of the public streaming companies do not<br />

hedge their long-term exposure to commodity prices.<br />

Target market<br />

Management will target farms growing <strong>ca</strong>nola with 3,000-15,000 acres of total acreage. The<br />

size of the farm may vary from this target. Canola usually makes up less than half of a<br />

farm’s total acreage. <strong>Input</strong> looks for farms in the dark brown, dark grey, and black soil<br />

zones of Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. These soil zones contain high organic<br />

matter, and are considered the best soil regions to grow <strong>ca</strong>nola. Currently, all the contracts<br />

<strong>Input</strong> has signed are lo<strong>ca</strong>ted in Saskatchewan. We estimate there are approximately 5,900<br />

farms in Western Canada that meet <strong>Input</strong>’s target market.<br />

<strong>Input</strong> will focus on farmers looking to expand their operations, but do not have adequate<br />

<strong>ca</strong>pital. We believe that younger farmers will continue to increase as older farmers<br />

retire, which will benefit <strong>Input</strong> in sourcing new farm operators. These younger<br />

operators will likely need <strong>ca</strong>sh to expand operations and maximize their yield. The 2011<br />

agriculture census in Canada reported that 48.3% of farm operators are over the age of 55.<br />

This is a large increase from 2006, where 40.7% were over 55, and 1991 at 32.1%.<br />

We also believe that the increasing price of agricultural land (as shown in the below chart)<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 13<br />

will <strong>ca</strong>use rent/mortgages to increase, and will increase the <strong>ca</strong>pital requirements of farmers.<br />

20<br />

18<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

Year over year percentage increase in farmland value<br />

Canada<br />

Alberta<br />

Saskatchewan<br />

Manitoba<br />

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />

Source: Farm Credit Canada<br />

Deal Flow<br />

Management has developed strong connections / relationships with farmers through their<br />

experience managing the previous three <strong>ca</strong>nola LPs, and Assiniboia. Assiniboia’s farmlands<br />

have 75 <strong>ca</strong>nola farmers. In addition, <strong>Input</strong> has formed strategic relationships with large<br />

agriculture service companies, such as Agri-Trend and Farmers Edge, to help source<br />

additional farmers. There are no fees paid for referrals. Management estimates that as more<br />

farmers start using streaming contracts, awareness will increase be<strong>ca</strong>use of the benefits they<br />

offer.<br />

<strong>Input</strong> had approximately $23.5 million in deployable <strong>ca</strong>pital in November 2012 (including<br />

<strong>ca</strong>pital from receivables). The first streaming contract was entered into on January 15, 2013.<br />

As of early July, management states that $19 million has been deployed in streaming<br />

contracts.<br />

Management feels streaming contracts will likely be easier to source outside the<br />

growing season of May to September, be<strong>ca</strong>use farmers are not so focused on growing<br />

<strong>ca</strong>nola.<br />

Competition<br />

Competition from new streaming companies is a major risk to <strong>Input</strong>. There are few barriers<br />

to entry, and entrants may negatively affect returns. However, we feel that <strong>Input</strong> has<br />

developed relationships and industry knowledge over the last 8 years of agriculture<br />

investment, which gives them an operational advantage.<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> management indi<strong>ca</strong>ted that, at the current point in time, their focus is on<br />

Canola streaming. In the future, they may expand into other crops.<br />

Canola<br />

industry<br />

We will look at the <strong>ca</strong>nola industry, demand for <strong>ca</strong>nola and key factors affecting the<br />

industry.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 14<br />

Canada is the largest <strong>ca</strong>nola exporting nation, and the largest producer in the world<br />

(Source: Conference Board of Canada 2011). The <strong>ca</strong>nola industry contributes<br />

approximately $15.4 billion to the Canadian economy each year. Canada is involved in<br />

all aspects of the <strong>ca</strong>nola value chain from genetics supply, farming, seed handling,<br />

transportation, crushing, refining and end uses, which generates an estimated 228,000 jobs<br />

for the Canadian economy (Source: Canola Council of Canada). Of the $15.4 billion, $5.4<br />

billion is generated from Saskatchewan, where production is the highest. The chart below<br />

shows the amount each province generates from the Canola businesses.<br />

Source: Canola Council of Canada (2011)<br />

Below is a graph summarizing the many uses of <strong>ca</strong>nola.<br />

Demand for <strong>ca</strong>nola seed, oil and meal has been trending up in the past de<strong>ca</strong>de as - a)<br />

more research on the benefits and uses of <strong>ca</strong>nola increases, b) government takes action to<br />

reduce or eliminate trans-fat in foods sold, c) <strong>ca</strong>nola as a bio-fuel additive, d) consumers<br />

adapting their diets to more healthy eating habits, and e) increasing world population.<br />

Sales of Canola<br />

in Canada<br />

Total <strong>ca</strong>sh receipts (revenue) for Canola in 2012 were $8.2 billion. Saskatchewan, Manitoba<br />

and Alberta accounted for the majority of the receipts as shown below. Alberta and<br />

Saskatchewan have strong increases in the amount of <strong>ca</strong>nola sold as shown below.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 15<br />

Canola <strong>ca</strong>sh receipts (in $1,000s)<br />

Source: Statistics Canada<br />

Canada is by far the largest exporter of Canola in the world, accounting for 72% of the<br />

worldwide export market. Australia is second with 17%. The majority of <strong>ca</strong>nola is sent to<br />

China, and Japan, who account for 31%, and 27%, of worldwide imports, respectively.<br />

Below is a graph illustrating the increasing demand in Canada for <strong>ca</strong>nola seeds.<br />

Canola Seed Demand/Supply (000’ tonnes)<br />

Source: Canola Council of Canada<br />

Farms in<br />

Canada<br />

A breakdown of the number of farms in Canada according to varying characteristics is<br />

shown below. Our estimate of farms that meet <strong>Input</strong>’s target market is included.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 16<br />

Canada Alberta Manitoba Saskatchewan<br />

Total Farms 205,730 43,234 15,877 36,952<br />

Farms over 2240 Acres 17,131 5,438 2,219 8,357<br />

Percentage of total farms over 2240 acres 8% 13% 14% 23%<br />

Canola Farms 35,073 11,889 6,151 15,736<br />

Canola Acreage 19 million 3.3 million 6 million 9.8 million<br />

Est. of Canola farms over 2240 acres 1,495 860<br />

Source: Statistics Canada Agriculture Census 2011<br />

3,559<br />

Farmland<br />

Canada<br />

The total farmland area in Canada has declined slightly over the last 3 de<strong>ca</strong>des. In<br />

1976, there was an estimated 169 million acres of farmland, 167 million acres in 2006, and<br />

160 million in 2011 (Source: Statistics Canada). The Canadian population increased from<br />

23.5 million in 1976, to 32.5 million in 2011. The following table shows the farm area,<br />

number of reporting farms and average area in Saskatchewan.<br />

Total Farm Area in Saskatchewan (1976 to 2011)<br />

1976 1986 1996 2006 2011<br />

Area in acres 65,511,431 65,728,443 65,653,588 64,253,845 61,628,148<br />

Farms reporting 70,958 63,431 56,995 44,329 36,952<br />

Average area 923 1,036 1,152 1,449 1,668<br />

(Source: Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture )<br />

The area of farmland is decreasing and the average size of farms is increasing, while the<br />

number of farmers is decreasing. We think that the above shows farmers are increasing their<br />

farm size through mergers and takeovers of other farms. This trend of farmers’ to keep<br />

expanding their acreage is beneficial for <strong>Input</strong> as farmers will continue to need <strong>ca</strong>pital (for<br />

acquisition and/or working <strong>ca</strong>pital). The decreasing acreage of farmland should also put<br />

pressure on overall crop prices due to the limited supply.<br />

Canola pricing<br />

and outlook<br />

Canadian supply growth has slowed while demand for <strong>ca</strong>nola has been increasing which has<br />

led to a histori<strong>ca</strong>l increases in prices.<br />

Below is a graph of the average <strong>ca</strong>nola seed price over each <strong>ca</strong>lendar year from 2002-2013.<br />

Since 2008, the price of <strong>ca</strong>nola has been steadily trending up. Over the last 10 years, the<br />

price of Canola has ranged from the low $200’s to over $700 per tonne. The current price of<br />

<strong>ca</strong>nola is currently just below $500.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 17<br />

Source:Barcharts<br />

We believe that slower growth in supply and increasing demand for <strong>ca</strong>nola will lead to<br />

increasing pricing for <strong>ca</strong>nola. We expect in the medium term the price to fluctuate around the<br />

current $500-550 level.<br />

Corporate<br />

Structure<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> went public on July 22, 2013, at a deemed price of $1.52, through a reverse<br />

takeover of WB II, a <strong>ca</strong>pital pool company (“CPC”).<br />

As of March 31, 2013, the fis<strong>ca</strong>l year end for <strong>Input</strong>, there were 34.8 million shares<br />

outstanding. The following summarizes the shares issued.<br />

• Private placements in 2012 raised $20.3 million by issuing 20.48 million units, or<br />

$0.995 per unit.<br />

• Acquisition of 25.7% of <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Limited Partnership for 0.97 million shares,<br />

valued at $0.87 million, or $0.90 per share. Over 70% was held by one investor who<br />

did not want to convert to <strong>Input</strong> shares.<br />

• Acquisition of 87.1% of LP2 for 1.03 million shares and received of $0.95 million in<br />

<strong>ca</strong>sh and receivables, or $0.95 per share.<br />

• Acquisition of 90.8% of LP3 for 2.35 million shares and received $2.2 million in<br />

<strong>ca</strong>sh and receivables, or $0.95 per share.<br />

• 10 million founder shares, issued to <strong>Input</strong>’s management were issued for proceeds of<br />

$999. This was structured by GMP Securities L.P, the lead underwriter of the private<br />

placement.<br />

<strong>Input</strong> currently has 35,577,273 shares outstanding. The increase in shares is the result of<br />

shares given to WB II. The following shows the share structure, as of the July 5, 2013.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 18<br />

Source: <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Filing Statement (July 5, 2013)<br />

The following lists the terms of the outstanding options:<br />

• 2,864,601 options to management of the company with an exercise price of $1.00;<br />

expires on November 30, 2017.<br />

• 265,001 options to employees and consultants. The exercise price is $1.00; expires<br />

on November 30, 2017.<br />

• 78,125 options to WB II with an exercise price of $1.60 and expires April 24, 2022.<br />

• 15,625 options to agents of WB II with an exercise price of 1.60 and expiry date of<br />

April 24, 2022.<br />

• 350,000 options are expected to be issued to the board of directors and a consultant at<br />

a price of $1.28 per share and an 8 year expiry.<br />

All the options are currently “in the money”.<br />

Management and insiders control 29.87% of the outstanding shares and 34.46%, on a fully<br />

diluted basis. The shares held by management are subject to the following trading<br />

restrictions.<br />

• 10% available for immediate trading.<br />

• The next 20% of shares are available for trading in 6 months.<br />

• The next 30% shares are available for trading in 12 months.<br />

• The next 40% shares are available for trading in 18 months.<br />

Management compensation<br />

Mr. Emsley, Mr. Farquhar and Mr. Nystuen will receive an annual base salary of $100,000<br />

each.<br />

Financials<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> had no revenues for the year ended March 31, 2013. Although they raised<br />

<strong>ca</strong>pital in November 2012, and started deploying <strong>ca</strong>pital in January 2013, revenues are not<br />

received until late August - September. We feel to accurately review <strong>Input</strong>’s financial<br />

performance, investors should review annual performance, and not quarterly reports due to<br />

the seasonality of <strong>ca</strong>nola.<br />

For FY2012, <strong>Input</strong> had no revenues, and incurred a loss of $0.37 million (EPS: -$0.03). Our<br />

revenue fore<strong>ca</strong>sts for FY2013, and FY2014, are $6.58 million, and $8.53 million,<br />

respectively. The assumptions made for our estimates are discussed in the valuation section<br />

below. Our net income fore<strong>ca</strong>sts are $1.56 million (EPS: 0.04) in FY2013, and $2.25<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 19<br />

million (EPS: 0.06) in FY2014.<br />

Income Statement 2012 2013E 2014E<br />

<strong>Capital</strong> Deployed $ 6,000,000 $ 19,500,000 $ 25,282,288<br />

Base Tonnage Received N/A 14,625 18,962<br />

Avg Contract Price $ per tonne N/A $ 50 $<br />

50<br />

Avg Canola Price $ per tonne N/A $ 500 $<br />

500<br />

Sales $ - $ 6,581,250 $ 8,532,772<br />

COGS $ - $ - $<br />

-<br />

Gross Profit $ - $ 6,581,250 $ 8,532,772<br />

G&A Expenses $ (364,969) $ (1,200,000) $ (1,236,000)<br />

EBITDA $ (364,969) $ 5,381,250 $ 7,296,772<br />

Amortization $ (100) $ (3,250,000) $ (4,213,715)<br />

EBIT $ (365,069) $ 2,131,250 $ 3,083,058<br />

Non-recurring income (expenses) $ (121,105)<br />

Income before income tax (loss) $ (486,174) $ 2,131,250 $ 3,083,058<br />

Income tax (recovery) expense $ (116,568) $ 575,438 $ 832,425.55<br />

Net income (loss) $ (369,606) $ 1,555,813 $ 2,250,632<br />

Weighted average number of common shares $ 11,415,448 $ 35,577,273 $ 35,577,273<br />

Earnings per share (loss) $ (0.03) $ 0.04 $<br />

0.06<br />

Operating<br />

margins<br />

Our estimates of operating margins are shown below. When comparing margins with metal<br />

streamers, <strong>Input</strong> has lower EBIT margins due to the shorter contract length. This <strong>ca</strong>uses<br />

amortization of initial <strong>ca</strong>pital to be higher for <strong>Input</strong>.<br />

Margins 2012 2013E 2014E<br />

EBITDA N/A 82% 86%<br />

EBIT N/A 32% 36%<br />

Net N/A 24% 26%<br />

Cash Flow<br />

Our estimate of free <strong>ca</strong>sh flow (“FCF”) for FY2013 is $0.23 million. We anticipate that free<br />

<strong>ca</strong>sh flow in subsequent years will be reinvested into new streaming contracts.<br />

Cash Flows 2012 2013E 2014E<br />

Cash from Operating $ 955,369 $ 5,782,288 $ 6,529,954<br />

Cash from Investing $ (18,827,586) $ (3,833,349) $ (5,782,288)<br />

Cash from Financing $ 19,382,687 $ - $ -<br />

Net increase (decrease ) in <strong>ca</strong>sh $ 1,510,470 $ 1,948,939 $ 747,665<br />

Free Cash Flows to Firm $ (5,302,326) $ 227,447 $ 747,665<br />

Balance Sheet<br />

Key balance sheet ratios are shown below. The trailing ROE of comparable mining<br />

streamers is 11.7%.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

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Page 20<br />

2012 2013E 2014E<br />

Liquidity Analysis<br />

Cash + Marketable Securities $ 14,316,375 $ 3,459,409 $ 4,207,075<br />

Working <strong>Capital</strong> $ 17,500,396 $ 8,054,104 $ 8,997,592<br />

Current Ratio 45 20 17<br />

ROE N/A 6.3% 8.5%<br />

Valuation<br />

For our valuation, we considered the following 3 scenarios.<br />

1. <strong>Input</strong> does not reinvest funds generated from operations, or raise any new equity to<br />

expand its existing portfolio. This is a very unlikely scenario.<br />

2. <strong>Input</strong> raises new equity to expand its portfolio - Although this is a realistic scenario,<br />

we feel that fore<strong>ca</strong>sting the terms of equity financings in the future (such as share<br />

price at the time of financing) is indeterminate at best.<br />

3. <strong>Input</strong> grows through reinvesting its free <strong>ca</strong>sh flows – this scenario is as likely as (2).<br />

However, we believe this scenario provides us a better indi<strong>ca</strong>tor of the fair value of<br />

the company, as it generates more predictable <strong>ca</strong>sh flows.<br />

The key assumptions we used in our model are:<br />

• We anticipate that <strong>Input</strong> reinvests all of their free <strong>ca</strong>sh flow until they have a <strong>ca</strong>pital<br />

base of $300 million. This will take 18 years. After this point, we assume the<br />

company maintains its asset base.<br />

• No debt or equity raised.<br />

• Discount rate of 10%<br />

• We use $450 per tonne as the long-term net price received by <strong>Input</strong>.<br />

• We assume no bonus tonnage is received by <strong>Input</strong>.<br />

Given these assumptions, our discounted <strong>ca</strong>sh flow model (DCF) gave a fair value estimate<br />

of $2.55 per share. The <strong>ca</strong>lculation is shown below.<br />

Discount Rate 10%<br />

Total PV $ 92,010,476<br />

Cash - Debt (at the end of FY2012) $ 1,510,470<br />

Equity Value $ 93,520,946<br />

Shares O/S (dil) * 36,651,724<br />

Value per share $2.55<br />

*Calculated based on the treasury stock method<br />

The table below shows our comparables valuation – which gave a fair value of $2.82 per<br />

share.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 21<br />

<strong>Input</strong> Comparable<br />

<strong>Input</strong>'s FV<br />

Est.<br />

EV/ EBITDA 8.7 12.10 $2.51<br />

P/CF 10.3 17.60 $3.14<br />

Average $2.82<br />

*<strong>Input</strong>s metrics were based on our FY2014 estimates<br />

*Comparable metrics were based on the trailing average of metal streamers, and grain/bean<br />

industry players.<br />

Returns are extremely sensitive to the net <strong>ca</strong>nola prices received by <strong>Input</strong>. Our share<br />

estimates based on varying <strong>ca</strong>nola prices ranges from $0.64 to $8.12 per share.<br />

Sensitivity analysis - <strong>ca</strong>nola net prices<br />

Net price of <strong>ca</strong>nola $ 350 $ 400 $ 450 $ 500 $ 550<br />

DCF Model $ 0.64 $ 1.33 $ 2.55 $ 4.65 $ 8.12<br />

Comparable fair value $ 2.10 $ 2.46 $ 2.82 $ 3.20 $ 3.58<br />

Rating<br />

Risks<br />

Based on our valuation and outlook, we initiate coverage on <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> with a fair<br />

value of $3.00 per share, and BUY rating.<br />

The following risks, though not exhaustive, may <strong>ca</strong>use our estimates to differ from actual<br />

results:<br />

• <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> is the first to use an agriculture streaming model.<br />

• The company may need to raise additional <strong>ca</strong>pital through equity offerings and dilute<br />

current equity.<br />

• A decrease in the price of <strong>ca</strong>nola would negatively affect <strong>Input</strong>.<br />

• Timely Deployment of <strong>ca</strong>pital is crucial to the success of <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />

• There may be new entrants to the industry increasing competition for <strong>Input</strong>. This<br />

may negatively affect returns.<br />

• Farmers may breach contracts with <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong>.<br />

• Expected returns will drop, or rise, if any of the inputs used in our base <strong>ca</strong>se scenario<br />

move unfavourably, or more favourably, respectively.<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 22<br />

Appendix<br />

<strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> current Canola contracts<br />

Source: <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong><br />

Income Statement 2012 2013E 2014E<br />

<strong>Capital</strong> Deployed $ 6,000,000 $ 19,500,000 $ 25,282,288<br />

Base Tonnage Received N/A 14,625 18,962<br />

Avg Contract Price $ per tonne N/A $ 50 $<br />

50<br />

Avg Canola Price $ per tonne N/A $ 500 $ 500<br />

Sales $ - $ 6,581,250 $ 8,532,772<br />

COGS $ - $ - $ -<br />

Gross Profit $ - $ 6,581,250 $ 8,532,772<br />

G&A Expenses $ (364,969) $ (1,200,000) $ (1,236,000)<br />

EBITDA $ (364,969) $ 5,381,250 $ 7,296,772<br />

Amortization $ (100) $ (3,250,000) $ (4,213,715)<br />

EBIT $ (365,069) $ 2,131,250 $ 3,083,058<br />

Non-recurring income (expenses) $ (121,105)<br />

Income before income tax (loss) $ (486,174) $ 2,131,250 $ 3,083,058<br />

Income tax (recovery) expense $ (116,568) $ 575,438 $ 832,425.55<br />

Net income (loss) $ (369,606) $ 1,555,813 $ 2,250,632<br />

Weighted average number of common shares $ 11,415,448 $ 35,577,273 $ 35,577,273<br />

Earnings per share (loss) $ (0.03) $ 0.04 $ 0.06<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 23<br />

Cash Flow Statement 2012 2013E 2014E<br />

Operating activities<br />

Net income (loss) for the year $ (369,606) $ 1,555,813 $ 2,250,632<br />

Adjustments<br />

Amortization of intangible assets $ 100 $ 3,250,000 $ 4,213,715<br />

Equity pick up <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> Limited Partnership $ 11,125<br />

Income tax (recovery) expense $ (116,568)<br />

Interest income $ (58,094)<br />

Share based payments $ 123,080<br />

Unrealized market value adjustment $ 120,721<br />

Interest received from marketable securities $ 5,905<br />

Changes in non-<strong>ca</strong>sh working <strong>ca</strong>pital $ 1,238,706 $ 976,476 $ 65,607<br />

$ 955,369 $ 5,782,288 $ 6,529,954<br />

Investing activities $ 5.05<br />

13%<br />

Acquisition of <strong>ca</strong>nola interests $ (6,133,703) $ (17,500,000) $ (5,782,288)<br />

Acquisition of marketable securities $ (15,500,000)<br />

Proceeds from sale marketable securities $ 2,694,095 $ 12,805,905<br />

Purchase of intangible assets $ (5,985)<br />

Cash acquired in partnership acquisitions $ 118,007 $ 860,746<br />

$ (18,827,586) $ (3,833,349) $ (5,782,288)<br />

Financing activities<br />

Shares issued $ 20,352,522 $ -<br />

Share issuance costs $ (969,835) $ -<br />

$ 19,382,687 $ - $ -<br />

Net increase (decrease ) in <strong>ca</strong>sh $ 1,510,470 $ 1,948,939 $ 747,665<br />

Cash – beginning of year - - - $ 1,510,470 $ 3,459,409<br />

Cash – end of year $ 1,510,470 $ 3,459,409 $ 4,207,075<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 24<br />

Balance Sheet 2012 2013E 2014E<br />

Assets<br />

Current<br />

Cash and <strong>ca</strong>sh equivalents $ 1,510,470 $ 3,459,409 $ 4,207,075<br />

Marketable securities $ 12,805,905 $ - $ -<br />

Current portion of <strong>ca</strong>nola interests$ 990,014 $ 3,377,164 $ 3,638,593<br />

Trade and other receivables $ 2,593,389 $ 1,645,313 $ 1,706,554<br />

$ 17,899,778 $ 8,481,885 $ 9,552,222<br />

Non Current<br />

Canola interests $ 5,022,968 $ 16,885,818 $ 18,192,963<br />

Investment in <strong>Input</strong> <strong>Capital</strong> LP $ 860,746 $ - $ -<br />

Deferred income tax assets $ 378,422 $ 378,422 $ 378,422<br />

Intangible assets $ 5,885 $ 5,885 $ 5,885<br />

$ 24,167,799 $ 25,752,011 $ 28,129,492<br />

Liabilities<br />

Current<br />

Trade and other payables $ 399,382 $ 427,781 $ 554,630<br />

Equity<br />

Share <strong>ca</strong>pital $ 23,653,482 $ 23,653,482 $ 23,653,482<br />

Contributed surplus $ 123,080 $ 123,080 $ 123,080<br />

Retained earnings (deficit) $ (364,798) $ 1,191,015 $ 3,441,647<br />

Non-controlling interests $ 356,653 $ 356,653 $ 356,653<br />

Total Equity $ 23,768,417 $ 25,324,230 $ 27,574,862<br />

Liabilities + SE $ 24,167,799 $ 25,752,011 $ 28,129,492<br />

© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT


Page 25<br />

Fundamental Research Corp. Equity Rating S<strong>ca</strong>le:<br />

Buy – Annual expected rate of return exceeds 12% or the expected return is commensurate with risk<br />

Hold – Annual expected rate of return is between 5% and 12%<br />

Sell – Annual expected rate of return is below 5% or the expected return is not commensurate with risk<br />

Suspended or Rating N/A— <strong>Coverage</strong> and ratings suspended until more information <strong>ca</strong>n be obtained from the company regarding recent events.<br />

Fundamental Research Corp. Risk Rating S<strong>ca</strong>le:<br />

1 (Low Risk) - The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry.<br />

The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free <strong>ca</strong>sh flow and has a history of profitability. The <strong>ca</strong>pital structure is<br />

conservative with little or no debt.<br />

2 (Below Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive<br />

to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free <strong>ca</strong>sh<br />

flows (though current free <strong>ca</strong>sh flow may be negative due to <strong>ca</strong>pital investment). The company’s <strong>ca</strong>pital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.<br />

3 (Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cycli<strong>ca</strong>l. Profits and <strong>ca</strong>sh flow are sensitive<br />

to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and <strong>ca</strong>sh flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and<br />

coverage ratios are sufficient.<br />

4 (Speculative) - The company has little or no history of generating earnings or <strong>ca</strong>sh flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a<br />

turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.<br />

5 (Highly Speculative) - The company has no history of generating earnings or <strong>ca</strong>sh flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products.<br />

Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues, and may rely on external funding.<br />

These stocks are considered highly speculative.<br />

Disclaimers and Disclosure<br />

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst about this company and industry. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and<br />

opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness.<br />

There is no guarantee that our fore<strong>ca</strong>sts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” does not own any shares<br />

of the subject company, does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject<br />

company. Fees were paid by <strong>INP</strong> to FRC. The purpose of the fee is to subsidize the high costs of research and monitoring. FRC takes steps to ensure independence<br />

including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts<br />

may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are<br />

protected contractually. To further ensure independence, <strong>INP</strong> has agreed to a minimum coverage term including an initial report and three updates. <strong>Coverage</strong> <strong>ca</strong>n not be<br />

unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to<br />

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The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (69%), HOLD (8%), SELL (5%), SUSPEND (18%).<br />

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© 2013 Fundamental Research Corp. “10 Years of Bringing Undiscovered Investment Opportunities to the Forefront “ www.researchfrc.com<br />

PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT

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