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Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...

Changing Tree Species in the West Kootenays - Kootenayresilience ...

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Habitat projections for Douglas-fir<br />

Current<br />

Average<br />

Frequency<br />

Adapted from:<br />

L. Gray and<br />

A. Hamann 2010<br />

Average<br />

Frequency<br />

2020s<br />

Model<br />

Agreement<br />

For <strong>the</strong> left two maps<br />

use <strong>the</strong> frequency<br />

legend; for <strong>the</strong> right<br />

map <strong>the</strong> presence<br />

/absence legend. Red<br />

<strong>in</strong>dicates all GCM<br />

comb<strong>in</strong>ations project<br />

Douglas-fir absence;<br />

blue <strong>in</strong>dicates <strong>the</strong>y<br />

all project presence,<br />

but may differ with<br />

regard to frequency.<br />

Left map shows average frequency of Douglas-fir based on forest cover and ecosystem mapp<strong>in</strong>g; middle map<br />

shows projected shifts <strong>in</strong> climate envelopes and associated frequencies for <strong>the</strong> 2020s, averaged from <strong>the</strong> 18<br />

GCM/ scenario comb<strong>in</strong>ations; <strong>the</strong> right map shows <strong>the</strong> degree of agreement between <strong>the</strong> GCM comb<strong>in</strong>ations<br />

regard<strong>in</strong>g presence and absence of Douglas-fir (a general <strong>in</strong>dication of uncerta<strong>in</strong>ty). Orig<strong>in</strong>al maps were<br />

completed for W. North America, <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g maps focus on <strong>the</strong> <strong>West</strong> <strong>Kootenays</strong>.<br />

5

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