Mildura Rail Feasibility Study - Public Transport Victoria

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Mildura Rail Feasibility Study Final Report AECOM 3.4.12 Low patronage areas Analysis of the detailed patronage of services has identified areas where patronage is particularly low. There is low patronage at a number of smaller settlements. Table 18: Low patronage stops Settlement Route Total patronage (on and off) recorded at the stop Total patronage (on and off) recorded on the route Percentage of total patronage recorded at stop Nullawil Bendigo - Sea Lake 18 5,526 0.33% 161 Culgoa Bendigo - Sea Lake 24 5,526 0.43% 161 Tempy Ballarat/Ararat - Ouyen 10 5,258 0.19% 213 Speed Ballarat/Ararat – Ouyen 27 5,258 0.51% 213 Turriff Ballarat/Ararat – Ouyen 7 5,258 0.13% 213 Lascelles Ballarat/Ararat - Ouyen 15 5,258 0.29% 213 Number of services in sample The outer section of the Sea Lake service beyond Wycheproof has an average load of approximately two. The Ouyen service beyond Warracknabeal has an average load of approximately three, dropping to one beyond Hopetoun. The population of the areas served by these stops and routes is small. Other possible contributing causes of these results include: Passengers travelling from the hinterland to catch services on the highways may be using the larger townships for ‘kiss and ride’ rather than the nearest stop; and The services are not meeting local community needs (e.g. journey time is too long, timetable is inconvenient). 3.4.13 Summary of patronage patterns Analysis of patronage patterns has found that: Patronage on existing V/Line services in the study area averages around 32 boardings per service; Where a choice of services is available, travel behaviour varies with individual services used differently in different towns; Services via Swan Hill are the most popular services for long-distance travel from Mildura; The overnight service via Ballarat is little used in many smaller communities; There is a small amount of local use of some long-distance services to make trips like St Arnaud – Maryborough and Robinvale - Mildura; There is evidence that informal connections, such as at Manangatang between Mildura and Adelaide services, are used and generate steady low levels of patronage; and Coach services are caught in the larger townships; small wayside stops receive very little use. Table 19 summarises the patronage patterns by township, drawn from the detailed assessment outlined in Appendix B. Average patronage has been weighted by service frequency to derive weekly results, and subsequently divided to determine a daily estimate. It should be noted that these figures are likely to underestimate current trip making because of the lack of detailed data for the Mildura – Bendigo route and the age of some of the data sets. It indicates that under current market conditions, approximately 22,220 people depart Mildura each year on a V/Line long distance public transport service, an unfavourable comparison with the estimated market for driving and air travel. 7 October 2010 39
Mildura Rail Feasibility Study Final Report AECOM Table 19: Summary of long-distance public transport trip making from study area townships Estimated average daily use of long distance public transport services Settlement Boardings Alightings Mildura 58.1 53.4 Ouyen 3.9 3.4 Robinvale 21.9 19.4 Birchip 0.4 0.3 Donald 3.2 3.6 St Arnaud 7.9 7.8 Dunolly 4.1 4.3 3.5 Changes in public transport markets Although there has been no further specific market research commissioned for the Mildura rail corridor since the previous feasibility study research in 2005, it is noted that generally overnight trains have been experiencing a long term decline in demand. This is evident in: Victoria, where “The Overland” has been converted from night to daytime operation; elsewhere in Australia, where patronage on Queensland’s primarily night-time long distance services has been declining significantly; and internationally, where many overnight trains in Europe and Japan have been withdrawn. Major improvements to the affordability of air travel have typically been cited as the main cause of this global trend. Other contributing factors may include changes to the way people value their travel time in the context of having broader options for travel choice (such as the increased availability of good quality roads and private transport). 7 October 2010 40
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