Mildura Rail Feasibility Study - Public Transport Victoria

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Mildura Rail Feasibility Study Final Report AECOM Table 2: Summary of greenhouse gas assessment Emissions (Net t CO2-e p.a.) 1 2 3 4 5 (via Robinvale) 5 (via Ouyen) 6 7 8 9 Gross 2668 2668 3314 2058 1247 1348 1675 1415 947 349 Net 2148 2640 2887 1971 824 997 1637 227 902 349 Table 3: Summary of ecological impact assessment Criteria Option 3 Option 5 (via Robinvale) Option 5 (via Ouyen) Impact on Flora and Fauna Meets objective well Meets objective poorly Impact on Native Vegetation Meets objective Meets objective poorly Meets objective well Meets objective Impact on Threatened Species/Communities Meets objective poorly Meets objective Meets objective Impact on Protected Areas Meets objective Meets objective Meets objective well Economic Impact Assessment Economic assessment forecast patronage ranging from a low of 13,000 to a high estimate of 75,000 for options involving services between Melbourne and Mildura. None of the options was found to have a positive economic case. The best performing rail option was Option 5, the extension of passenger rail from Swan Hill to Mildura via Robinvale, with a Net Present Value (NPV) of $-573 million and a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) of 0.09. Option 8, the long distance coach package, had an NPV of $-31 million and a BCR of 0.04. Table 4: Summary of cost-benefit assessment of Melbourne - Mildura service options Economic analysis Present value of costs Present value of benefits NPV BCR Option Option 1 $736m $37m -$699m 0.05 Option 2 $736m $21m -$715m 0.03 Option 3 $1,464m $100m -$1,364m 0.07 Option 4 $62m $4m -$57.8m 0.07 Option 5a $627m $54m -$573m 0.09 Option 5b $738m $54m -$684m 0.07 Option 7 $113m $3m -$110m 0.03 Option 8 $32m $1m -$31m 0.04 A range of sensitivity tests and optimistic assumptions were made during the economic appraisal. Applying sensitivity tests for a maximum patronage outcome of full trains daily, and a social inclusion benefit of $20 per passenger, on the daytime train via the existing railway, which has a low environmental impact and addresses the communities of the rail corridor, achieved a BCR of 0.26 and an NPV of $-543 million. On the basis of relative cost alone, coach services from Mildura to Ballarat are the most cost effective option, driven mainly by the large capital costs associated with the rail options. 7 October 2010 iii
Mildura Rail Feasibility Study Final Report AECOM Findings The feasibility study demonstrates that a rail-only solution to transport needs in the study area does not provide the best outcome. None of the rail options provide adequate access to regional centres important to the Mildura rail corridor communities, and none of the rail options meet the different needs of both the northern and southern parts of the corridor. Similarly, a response that does not address the community requirement to travel to Melbourne at a reasonable time will not adequately address the transport issues raised. Accordingly, it is desirable to combine aspects of the Options assessed to develop a more effective package that overcomes the weaknesses of a rail-only option. The packages proposed draw on the results of the social, environmental and economic appraisal to identify the best performing options for a rail option in the corridor, a rail option outside the Mildura Rail Corridor, and a non-rail option. The options are then combined to ensure that a range of different transport needs can be addressed. The following four packages are recommended for Government consideration. Should Government decide to proceed with Mildura passenger rail on the Mildura Rail Corridor Daytime passenger train, departing Melbourne at about 9:30 am and Mildura at approximately 6:20 am with a journey time of around 9.5 hours (Option 2). A coach service between Horsham and Mildura to provide local day-return access to Mildura for towns in the northern part of the rail corridor (part of Option 8). A range of short distance bus services, including improved Donald – Bendigo, Donald – Horsham, Birchip and Swan Hill –Tooleybuc services and small scale initiatives (Option 9). - The total capital cost of this option is estimated to be approximately $505 million and the recurrent cost is estimated at $25.3 million per year. Should Government decide to proceed with passenger rail to Mildura on an alternative corridor Extension of passenger train from Swan Hill to Mildura via Ouyen (Option 5). A coach service between Horsham and Mildura to provide local day-return access to Mildura for towns in the northern part of the rail corridor (part of Option 8). A range of short distance bus services, including improved Donald – Bendigo, Donald – Horsham, Birchip and Swan Hill –Tooleybuc services and small scale initiatives (Option 9). - The total capital cost of this option is estimated to be approximately $446 million and the recurrent cost is estimated to be $20.46 million per year. Should Government decide not to proceed with Mildura passenger rail A range of long-distance coach services, including two daily Mildura – Ballarat coaches to provide regular services through the corridor; a coach service between Horsham and Mildura to provide local day-return access to Mildura for towns in the northern part of the rail corridor; and additional services to fill schedule gaps in the overnight coach and Bendigo – Sea Lake services. A range of short distance bus services, including improved Donald – Bendigo, Donald – Horsham, Birchip and Swan Hill –Tooleybuc services and small scale initiatives (Option 9); - The total capital cost of this option is estimated to be approximately $1.66 million and the recurrent cost of this option is estimated to be $3.94 million per year. To provide an equitable service level as provided on other regional corridors the Government should consider: Providing an additional daily train and coach on the Swan Hill corridor, to provide an equitable service level on this route as provided on other regional corridors (Option 4); - The recurrent cost of this option is estimated to be $5.4 million per year. 7 October 2010 iv
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