Projections of High School Graduates - WICHE

Presented by:
Brian T. Prescott
Director of Policy Research
An Early Glimpse at
Knocking at the College
Door: Projections of
High School Graduates
WICHE Commission Meeting
November 13, 2012 ~ Salt Lake City, UT
with support from

Background
• Eighth edition to be released this winter
• Projections of high school graduates by state and
race/ethnicity, including nonpublic graduates
• Actual data through 2008-09; 09; projections spanning
2009-10 through 2027-28
• Audience
• Federal, state, and local policymakers and agency staff
• Institutions: colleges and universities, public and private
schools
• Media
• Researchers
• Others

• Questions
Methodology Review
• Are we employing the best possible forecasting methods, given
data availability, level l of effort, and other tradeoffs
• In what ways might we extend the analysis to make it more
useful to policymakers and planners
• Process
• Background paper
• Technical review panel
• End user review panel
• What we learned
• Retain cohort survival rate as basic methodology
• Transparent, straightforward, and consistent arithmetic
• Analysis unclouded by broad implications
• More regular updates would be helpful
• Resist the temptation to be Nostradamus

Caveat Emptor
• Assumed existing patterns continue indefinitely
• Policy changes not explicitly modeled
• Changes in accountability policies (i.e., high-stakes tests)
• Variations in funding levels that affect progression
• Underlying data
• Reflect the 2008 recession but not all years of continued
economic slump
• May reflect small ‘bumps’ from the Federal race/ethnicity
classification change
classification change
• Focus is on the traditional pipeline exclusively

A Few Contextual Features
• Fertility rates declining across the board
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
All origins Hispanic White non-Hispanic Black non-Hispanic
2004 2007 2009 2010
• Slowing immigration among Latinos (Pew,
Census Bureau)
• Impacts of the recession shifting students
around
N F ili h b f li bi h 1 000 d 15 44 Bi h d f ili f 2001 2009 h i hi
Notes: Fertility rates measure the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. Birth and fertility rates for 2001–2009 shown in this
report were revised using (intercensal) population estimates based on the 2000 and 2010 census. The revised rates may differ from the rates
published previously, which were based 2000 (postcensal) population estimates.
Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Volume 61, Number 1, August 2012, Tables 1 and 5.

Projections of Postsecondary Enrollment
of Adults 25 and Older
10.0
9.5
9.0
• Adult enrollment is
8.5
projected to grow
8.0
by 25.4 percent
7.5
between Fall 2008
70 7.0
and Fall 2019.
Millions
6.5
6.0
55 5.5
5.0
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics
to 2019, Table 21.

U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School
Graduates, 1996-9797 to 2027-28
28
3.6
3.4
3.2
3.0
illions
M
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2

U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Grad-
uates, Comparison of 2008 & 2012 Projections
3.6
3.4
3.2
Mil llions
3.0
28 2.8
2012 Actual
2012 Projections
2008 Actual
2008 Projections
2.6
2.4
2.2

1.4
U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School
Graduates by Region, 2003-04 04 to 2027-2828
1.3
1.2
South
1.1
1.0
Millions
0.9
08 0.8 West
0.7
0.6
Midwest
Northeast
0.5
0.4

Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by
Region, Cumulative Percent Change from 2008-09
15%
10% South
5%
West
0%
Midwest
-5%
Northeast
-10%
-15%

Percent Change Between 2008-09 and 2019-20
in Total High School Graduates, by State
t
AK
WA
OR
NV
CA
HI
ID
AZ
UT
MT
WY
CO
NM
VT NH ME
ND
MN
MA
SD WI
NY
MI
RI
IA
PA
CT
NE
NJ
OH
MD
IL IN
WV DE
KS
VA
MO KY
DC
TN
NC
OK
AR
SC
MS AL GA
LA
TX
Decline Growth
FL

U.S. Public High School Graduates by
Race/Ethnicity, i 2008-09, 09 2014-15, 15 and 2019-20
7%
2008-09 (Actual)
2014-15 (Projected)
e 2019-20 (Projected)
6%
5%
15%
14%
13%
55%
58%
63%
16%
21%
24%
American Indian/Alaska Native
23%
Asian/Pacific ifi Islander
Black non-Hispanic
Hispanic
White non-Hispanic

Proportion of Minority Public High School
Graduates, 2019-20 (Projected)
AK
WA
OR
NV
CA
HI
NH ME
MT ND
VT
MN
MA
ID
SD WI
NY
WY
MI
IA
PA
CT RI
NE
NJ
OH
MD
UT
IL IN
CO
WV DE
KS
VA
MO KY
DC
TN
NC
AZ NM OK
AR
SC
MS AL GA
TX LA
FL
≤ 10% 50% +

Public High School Graduates in the West by Race/Ethnicity,
1996-97 to 2008-09 (Actual); 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected)
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000000
200,000
100,000
0
White non-Hispanic Hispanic Black non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander American Indian/Alaska Native

Production and Diversification of Western States’
Projected Public High School Graduates by 2020
18%
of
White Share
020
ange in Non-W
SGs, 2009-20
ge Point Cha
Public HS
Percentag
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
Slowing production,
Rapid diversification
MT
AK
OR
CA ND
HI
Slowing production,
Incremental diversification
AZ
US
WA
SD
NM
WY
ID
NV
CO
Increasing production,
Rapid diversification
0%
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Percent Change in Total Production, 2009-2020
UT
Increasing production,
Incremental diversification

Admissions Hysteria!!!!!!
“Moms Quit Jobs for their Child’s College Dreams” (CNN.com,
4.27.2010)
2010)
“There are few experiences short of death, disease, injury or divorce
that have as much potential for trauma for American families as the
college admissions process. The first great rite of passage for young
humans once was killing a wild animal. That was replaced by getting
married, or getting a job. These days it is getting into college. ” (Jay
Mathews, washingtonpost.com, 5.23.2010)
“The [admissions] process is far too important to the nation to be left
[ ] p p
solely in the hands of a few college administrators who are reluctant
to explain their selections standards or model.” (Andy Pettis, editorial
in The Washington Post, 5.16.2010)

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
20%
Public Institutions’ Growing Dependence on
Net Tuition Revenue
Share of Discretionary Revenue,
United States, 1986-2011
76.8%
23.2% 2%
56.9%
State
Net Tuition
Revenue Share
Change in %
Points Since
1986
Colorado 65.0% 24.9
South Dakota 57.8% 22.8
Oregon 56.4% 30.0
Montana 52.8% 35.9
North Dakota 49.6% 22.5
Arizona 46.4% 22.7
Utah 44.8% 24.5
40% Washington 34.5% 12.8
43.1%
30%
Hawaii 32.4% 23.6
Idaho 31.4% 17.5
10%
0%
19 986
19 987
19 988
19 989
19 990
19 991
19 992
19 993
19 994
19 995
19 996
19 997
19 998
19 999
20 000
20 001
20 002
20 003
20 004
20 005
20 006
20 007
20 008
20 009
20 010
20 011
Net Tuition Revenue
Educational Appropriations
Nevada 30.5% 8.4
California 27.4% 16.6
Alaska 27.1% 16.7
New Mexico 21.9% 82 8.2
Wyoming 11.4% 2.0
Source: SHEEO SHEF

Pressure to Devote Additional Resources
to Recruitment
Applications
Up
Yield
Down
Tepid HSG
pool
Cost
shifting
Enrollment
targets

Voices From the Enrollment
Management Trenches
“None of us would ever want to see the day when we had
to choose whether h to spend our resources on excellence
or access. Put more starkly: We never want our values to
depend on the markets.”
- Raynard Kington, President of Grinnell College
“A lot of institutions are asking, ‘Can we afford our
values’ ’And dthe answer is: We can’t.” ’t”
- a vice president at a private non-profit college
“How do we back away from students who are least likely
to succeed, and replace them with students who are most
likely to succeed”
- an enrollment management consultant

Percent of Dependent Students Receiving Grants and Average
Amount Received by Source of Grant and Income Quartile,
2007-08
80% $8,000
70%
$7,000
60%
$6,000
50%
$5,000
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Lowest Second Third Highest
Lowest Second Third Highest
Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile
65.4 4%
33.4%
29 9.0%
22.1%
24.9 9%
.4%
4%
28
0.5%
15.5%
27.
0.6%
10.9%
25.0 0%
$3,529
$2, 916
$4,580
$5,654
$6, ,861
$2,093
$2,8 831
$2,35 57
$2,50 09
$2,7 783
$2,7 785
$7 7,155
Source: NPSAS

Percent of Dependent Students at Public Four-Year Institutions
Receiving Grants and Average Amount Received by Source of
Grant and Income Quartile, 2007-08
80%
$8,000
70%
$7,000
60%
$6,000
50%
$5,000
40%
76.4%
$4,000
30%
$3,000
20%
10%
0%
48.4%
33.5%
26.1 1%
35.7%
3 1.2%
0.5%
18.3%
24.5 5%
0.6%
13.4%
19.2%
Lowest Second Third Highest
Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile
$2,000
$1,000
$0
$3,849
$3,436
$3,831
$2,22 23
$3 3,138
$3,663
$2, 760
$4,041
$3 3,081
$3,993
Lowest Second Third Highest
Quartile Quartile Quartile Quartile
Source: NPSAS

State Policy Areas to Address These Shifts
• State goals that include targets for
underrepresented populations
• Standards alignment and equal expectations for
all
• Appropriately targeted and incentivized state
finance policies
i
• Enrollment management policies that are
consistent t with state t goals

Questions
Brian T. Prescott, Ph.D.
Director of Policy Research,
Policy Analysis & Research
Western Interstate Commission for
Higher Education
3035 Center Green Drive, Suite 200
Boulder, CO 80301-2204
303.541.0255
bprescott@wiche.edu