Jan-Feb-2015-TT-for-Website

Washington
Watch
JIM GOLDWATER
As you of course know, Election Day 2014 was an
enormous success for Republicans, who significantly
increased their majority in the House of Representatives,
regained control of the Senate, and expanded
their holds on governorships.
Unfortunately, voter turnout was abysmally low. Only
36.4 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the midterm
elections, marking the lowest voter turnout in 72
years.
Maine had the highest turnout, but that was only 59
percent. Indiana had the lowest, at a mere 28 percent.
In the 114th Congress that begins in January, Republicans
will have 244 House members vs. 184 for the
Democrats. That is a net gain of 12 for the GOP.
In the upper chamber, Republicans turned a 55-45 deficit
(which included two Independents who caucused
with the Democrats) into a 53-46 Republican majority,
with one runoff, in Louisiana, remaining.
Republicans will hold 31 of the 50 governorships next
year, a net gain of 3.
With voter approval of Congress at an all-time low,
but with the economy experiencing a comeback while
unemployment levels have come down, there are a
variety of explanations that the talking heads have
offered for the GOP’s enormous success. Unquestionably,
there was widespread dissatisfaction with President
Obama, and Republicans were very successful in
airing a range of issues that put Democrats in general,
and the administration in particular, on the defensive.
(The Affordable Care Act; Immigration; Executive
Branch overreaching; Climate change; The Keystone
XL pipeline; The poor efforts of the Senate Democratic
leadership, led by Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.).
And there were other issues that, rightly or wrongly,
reflected poorly on the party that controls the White
House including ISIS, Ebola, and scandals within and
substandard protection by the Secret Service.
It has been my observation that through the years,
the Republican Party does a better job of exciting its
base and its voters, and generally does a better job of
framing the issues, forcing the Democrats to react rather
than pro-act.
Having said that, I was disturbed that local TV and
radio ads in the Washington area featured few positive
messages; rather, the ads were marked by continually
and nastily knocking the other guy while putting forth
comparatively little as to why voters should vote for the
person who paid for the ad.
Negative campaigning is now the overwhelming rule
rather than the exception. Anyone who tries to run
a wholly positive campaign, while eschewing digs at
his or her opponent does so at his or her own peril
because negativity sells. You may recall that I have
often said that people do not remember the 10,000
planes that land safely; they remember – and the news
by definition features – the one plane that skids off the
runway. Thus, if Candidate A campaigns negatively, but
Candidate B campaigns positively AND does not respond
to or refute what Candidate A says, Candidate
B will likely lose. This latter point – letting accusations
go unchallenged – conveys, to many voters, a sign of
weakness, or that there must be something to hide.
For example, another thing I have said is that if someone
is publicly accused of something, like kicking a
dog, it may very well not matter if it is true; in the court
of public opinion, and with news 24/7 that person is
presumed to be guilty. It may not be fair, or right, but it
so often turns out to be true.
The 114th Congress, which, as history has shown,
could take several months to organize, will face a variety
of important national issues. These include tax and
Jim Goldwater is the Senior Vice President at Bob Lawrence & Associates, Inc. For further information, he can be reached at
703-836-6196; Fax: 703-836-6086; Email: jimauh2o@aol.com.
14 TOWER TIMES JANUARY ■ FEBRUARY 2015