Shea & Company Annual Software Market Review - 2007

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Trading Multiples by Segment continued ($ millions) Share Price Market Enterprise Projected Revenue [a] EV / Revenue Projected EPS [a] P/E Multiple Company (12/31/07) Value Value CY07E CY08E Growth % CY07E CY08E CY07E CY08E Growth % CY07E CY08E Storage Management Network Appliance $ 26.38 $ 9,333 $ 8,259 $ 3,161 $ 3,891 23.1% 2.6 x 2.1 x $ 1.16 $ 1.50 29.3% 22.7 x 17.6 x Data Domain 35.51 2,042 1,913 117 199 70.1% 16.4 9.6 (0.11) 0.08 nm nm nm CommVault Systems 18.97 888 809 184 232 26.1% 4.4 3.5 0.52 0.75 44.2% 36.5 25.3 FalconStor Software 13.26 723 664 76 102 33.4% 8.7 6.5 0.29 0.43 48.3% 45.7 30.8 Isilon Systems 7.33 496 401 97 125 29.6% 4.2 3.2 (0.24) (0.11) nm nm nm Double-Take Software 18.56 440 373 83 103 25.0% 4.5 3.6 0.61 0.73 19.7% 30.4 25.4 Mean $ 619 $ 775 34.5% 6.8 x 4.8 x $ 0.37 $ 0.56 35.4% 33.8 x 24.8 x Median 107 162 27.9% 4.5 3.5 0.41 0.58 36.8% 33.5 25.4 Systems & Network Management VMware $ 92.42 $ 35,755 $ 35,071 $ 1,331 $ 2,059 54.7% 26.4 x 17.0 x $ 0.80 $ 1.15 43.8% nm x 80.4 x CA 24.95 12,887 13,575 4,143 4,287 3.5% 3.3 3.2 1.06 1.13 6.6% 23.5 22.1 BMC Software 35.64 7,193 5,714 1,666 1,745 4.8% 3.4 3.3 1.75 1.95 11.4% 20.4 18.3 Compuware 8.12 2,324 2,002 1,213 1,223 0.8% 1.7 1.6 0.60 0.64 6.7% 13.5 12.7 Quest Software 17.52 1,807 1,441 623 687 10.2% 2.3 2.1 0.82 0.88 7.3% 21.4 19.9 BladeLogic 27.90 801 721 67 93 37.6% 10.7 7.8 0.07 0.21 200.0% nm nm Netezza 13.39 801 678 114 161 40.9% 5.9 4.2 (0.04) 0.10 nm nm nm Netscout Systems 11.16 447 338 124 222 79.0% 2.7 1.5 0.16 0.41 156.3% 69.8 27.2 Opnet Technologies 12.05 251 160 99 117 18.2% 1.6 1.4 0.13 0.10 -23.1% 92.7 nm Mean $ 1,042 $ 1,177 27.7% 6.4 x 4.7 x $ 0.59 $ 0.73 51.1% 40.2 x 30.1 x Median 623 687 18.2% 3.3 3.2 0.60 0.64 9.4% 22.5 21.0 Notes: Enterprise value equals equity value, plus debt, less cash P/E multiples in excess of 100x are considered to be not meaningful [a] Wall Street consensus estimates Source: Company releases, Wall Street research, Shea & Company proprietary & confidential 25
Trading Multiples by Comparable Subsets ($ millions) Share Price Market Enterprise Projected Revenue [a] EV / Revenue Projected EPS [a] P/E Multiple Company (12/31/07) Value Value CY07E CY08E Growth % CY07E CY08E CY07E CY08E Growth % CY07E CY08E SaaS Salesforce.com $ 54.43 $ 6,678 $ 6,114 $ 741 $ 1,030 39.0% 8.3 x 5.9 x $ 0.13 $ 0.32 146.2% nm x nm x Red Hat 20.84 4,161 3,402 490 604 23.2% 6.9 5.6 0.66 0.83 25.8% 31.6 25.1 Omniture 29.49 1,932 1,769 143 219 53.5% 12.4 8.1 0.20 0.41 105.0% nm 71.9 Concur 33.47 1,583 1,423 146 213 45.8% 9.8 6.7 0.41 0.48 17.1% 81.6 69.7 Blackboard 42.48 1,283 1,275 237 276 16.4% 5.4 4.6 0.87 1.16 33.3% 48.8 36.6 Ultimate Software 36.34 1,009 984 151 184 21.6% 6.5 5.4 0.71 0.70 -1.4% 51.2 51.9 Kenexa 32.24 832 719 182 221 21.6% 4.0 3.2 1.15 1.39 20.9% 28.0 23.2 Rightnow Technologies 18.30 632 542 111 138 24.4% 4.9 3.9 (0.39) - nm nm nm Mean $ 298 $ 392 31.6% 7.6 x 5.7 x $ 0.59 $ 0.76 49.5% 48.3 x 46.4 x Median 182 221 23.2% 6.9 5.6 0.66 0.70 25.8% 48.8 44.3 High Growth VMware $ 92.42 $ 35,755 $ 35,071 $ 1,331 $ 2,059 54.7% 26.4 x 17.0 x $ 0.80 $ 1.15 43.8% nm x 80.4 x Salesforce.com 54.43 6,678 6,114 741 1,030 39.0% 8.3 5.9 0.13 0.32 146.2% nm nm Blue Coat Systems 82.64 3,260 3,114 271 371 37.0% 11.5 8.4 1.00 1.36 36.0% 82.6 60.8 Riverbed Technology 42.87 3,147 2,915 231 356 54.1% 12.6 8.2 0.64 0.76 18.8% 67.0 56.4 NetSuite 39.18 2,515 2,363 108 159 47.0% 21.9 14.9 (0.10) 0.13 nm nm nm Data Domain 35.51 2,042 1,913 117 199 70.1% 16.4 9.6 (0.11) 0.08 nm nm nm Omniture 29.49 1,932 1,769 143 219 53.5% 12.4 8.1 0.20 0.41 105.0% nm 71.9 Aruba Networks 20.03 1,637 1,528 175 264 50.9% 8.8 5.8 0.12 0.40 233.3% nm 50.1 Concur 33.47 1,583 1,423 146 213 45.8% 9.8 6.7 0.41 0.48 17.1% 81.6 69.7 Synchronoss Technologies 33.35 1,094 1,006 123 167 36.0% 8.2 6.0 0.71 0.91 28.2% 47.0 36.6 Websense 20.24 932 871 226 309 37.0% 3.9 2.8 0.90 1.13 25.6% 22.5 17.9 BladeLogic 27.90 801 721 67 93 37.6% 10.7 7.8 0.07 0.21 200.0% nm nm Netezza 13.39 801 678 114 161 40.9% 5.9 4.2 (0.04) 0.10 nm nm nm SuccessFactors 11.60 671 586 65 110 70.7% 9.1 5.3 (1.73) (1.63) nm nm nm DemandTec 15.85 469 396 54 75 38.2% 7.3 5.3 (0.30) 0.25 nm nm 63.4 Netscout Systems 11.16 447 338 124 222 79.0% 2.7 1.5 0.16 0.41 156.3% 69.8 27.2 Notes: Enterprise value equals equity value, plus debt, less cash P/E multiples in excess of 100x are considered to be not meaningful [a] Wall Street consensus estimates Source: Company releases, Wall Street research, Shea & Company Mean $ 252 $ 375 49.5% 11.0 x 7.4 x $ 0.18 $ 0.40 91.8% 61.7 x 53.4 x Median 133 216 46.4% 9.4 6.4 0.15 0.41 43.8% 68.4 58.6 proprietary & confidential 26
Page 1 and 2: Annual Infrastructure & Application
Page 3 and 4: 2007 Infrastructure & Application S
Page 9 and 10: 2006 - 2007 Software M&A Transactio
Page 15 and 16: Public Company Participants & Conso
Page 17 and 18: Public Company Participants & Conso
Page 19 and 20: Most Active Public Consolidation Pl
Page 21 and 22: Most Active Public Consolidation Pl
Page 23 and 24: Trading Multiples by Segment contin
Page 25: Trading Multiples by Segment contin
Page 29 and 30: Software IPO Pipeline ($ millions)
Page 31: Notable Transactions Financial term

Shea & Company Annual Software Market Review - 2007

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?