FORTUNE GROUP - Fortune Financial Services

… But Accelerated Moderation In Seasonally
Adjusted Terms
INDIA
ECON NOMICS
Month-On-Month Growth Rate • As the adjacent exhibit reveals, the
6%
process of cyclical moderation of the IIP in
seasonally-adjusted terms started from Q4
of FY10
4%
• Since then, the IIP-12MMA MoM growth
2%
rate has declined from around 1.5% in
December 2009 to 0.3% in December
2010
0%
• Similarly, the MoM growth rate of IIP-
3MMA has declined from 5.0% in January
-2%
2010 to -1.5% in October 2010 before
rebounding to 3.0% in December 2010
-4%
and then falling to 2.4% in January 2011
Jan-1 10
Feb-1 10
Mar-1 10
Apr-1 10
May-1 10
Jun-1 10
Jul-1 10
Aug-1 10
Sep-1 10
Oct-1 10
Nov-1 10
Dec-1 10
Jan-1 11
-6%
IIP - 12MMA
IIP - 3MMA
Source: Ministry of Statistics & Program Implementation;
Fortune Research
• Even though the two series reflect some
volatility, we reckon that the underlying
trend remains that of cyclical moderation
and we would expect the process to
accelerate from February 2011 onwards
FORTUNE GROUP ­ INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH
March 11, 2011
11