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GUEST AUTHOR<br />

Life Expectancy and<br />

By Raymond L. Goldsteen, DrPH<br />

Director, <strong>North</strong> <strong>Dakota</strong> Master of<br />

Public Health Program at UND<br />

In October, the New York Times and other<br />

news media reported a deeply disturbing<br />

story: life expectancy among white men<br />

and women in the United States with less<br />

than a high school education has declined<br />

steadily and precipitously since 1990. For<br />

white women with less than a high school<br />

education, life expectancy dropped from<br />

over 78 years in 1990, to about 75 years in<br />

2000, and just over 73 years by 2008.<br />

Why is this story so disturbing Life<br />

expectancy has been increasing in the<br />

United States for all<br />

groups for over 100 years.<br />

Each generation has come<br />

to expect that it will live<br />

longer than the previous.<br />

During the 50-year period<br />

between 1900 and 1950,<br />

the Centers for Disease<br />

Control and Prevention<br />

documents a striking<br />

improvement in life<br />

expectancy in the United<br />

States. A person born in<br />

1900 could be expected to<br />

live, on average, 47.3<br />

years. By 1950, life<br />

expectancy was 68.2 years,<br />

a 44% increase over 1900.<br />

This improvement in life<br />

span had not been exceeded in the United<br />

States in any previous period. In the latter<br />

half of the twentieth century, longevity<br />

continued to increase for all groups. The<br />

decline found among people with low<br />

education starting in 1990 reversed this<br />

historical trend.<br />

Because life expectancy had been<br />

continually increasing in the United States<br />

among all groups for over 100 years, we<br />

have tended to forget that improvement is<br />

not inevitable. Life expectancy is a measure<br />

of the health of a population, not an<br />

individual’s health. For individuals, life<br />

expectancy is a probability, not a certainty.<br />

An individual within a population may live<br />

longer than expected or die before the<br />

“Because life expectancy<br />

had been continually<br />

increasing in the<br />

United States among<br />

all groups for<br />

over 100 years,<br />

we have tended to forget<br />

that improvement<br />

is not inevitable.<br />

expected age, but the average (or expected)<br />

age indicates the common situation<br />

affecting that population’s health.<br />

The story in the Times reminds us that<br />

life expectancy, that is, expected longevity<br />

for a group of people, results from<br />

conditions that affect the entire group, and<br />

if these conditions change for the worse,<br />

life expectancy will change for the worse as<br />

well. In the 1950s when we believed that<br />

antibiotics had eliminated microbial<br />

disease threats, René Dubos, the Pulitzer<br />

Prize–winning<br />

microbiologist, warned that<br />

new microbial diseases<br />

would always arise. In the<br />

1980s, Dubos was proved<br />

correct by the AIDS<br />

epidemic and others like<br />

H1N1 that followed. Today,<br />

the finding that life<br />

expectancy has declined for<br />

whites with low education<br />

sounds a similar warning.<br />

The improvement in life<br />

span during the first half of<br />

the twentieth century was<br />

”<br />

due in large part to control of<br />

infectious diseases. By midcentury,<br />

people were dying<br />

later in life and from<br />

different causes than their parents and<br />

grandparents. In 1900, infectious<br />

diseases—pneumonia and influenza,<br />

tuberculosis, and intestinal infections—<br />

were the three leading causes of death in<br />

the United States. These “Big Three”<br />

accounted for over 31 percent of all deaths.<br />

Other infectious diseases, including<br />

typhoid, diphtheria, and cholera, were<br />

major causes of death, as well. By 1950, the<br />

“Big Three” had become heart disease,<br />

cancer, and stroke, accounting for 62 percent<br />

of all deaths. Other major causes of death<br />

were chronic, noninfectious conditions,<br />

including diabetes and renal diseases.<br />

The provision of clean water for<br />

drinking, cooking, and hygiene through<br />

22 NORTH DAKOTA MEDICINE Holiday 2012

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