Economic and Employment Impacts of Small Modular Reactors - SMR

Table 2: SMR Market Share of New Nuclear Power Facilities
SMR Market Share
2015 2020 2025 2030
Scenario
Moderate Deployment 2% 12% 22% 32%
Disruptive Technology 5% 30% 55% 75%
U.S. Market Share for SMR Manufacturing
Projections for SMR manufacturing market share captured by U.S. firms are separated into two
categories, international market share and domestic market share. In each category, the market share
captured by domestic SMR manufacturers is assumed to be constant over the time period under
consideration. U.S. manufacturers are assumed to capture 50% of the domestic SMR market and about
20% of the international SMR market. These estimates were made based upon the following
considerations
SMR development activity is underway in at least 7 countries (World Nuclear Association, 2010).
U.S. manufacturers may realize a preference for U.S. design certification from the NRC.
The domestic and international market share projections were applied to the total SMR demand
estimates to derive the number of units built annually in the U.S.
Overview of the Four Cases for SMR Manufacture and Operation
As described above, the three primary factors considered in the analysis are growth in nuclear power
capacity, SMR market share of that capacity growth, and U.S. manufacturer penetration into the SMR
market. Table 3 summarizes the scenarios used to build each of the cases for estimating SMR economic
impacts.
SMR Economic
Impact Case
Low
Moderate
High
Disruptive
Table 3: SMR Case Overview
Added Nuclear
Capacity Scenario
Low Adoption
Moderate
Adoption
High Adoption
High Adoption
20
SMR Market Share
of Added Nuclear
Capacity
Moderate SMR
Deployment (32%
by 2030)
Moderate SMR
Deployment (32%
by 2030)
Moderate SMR
Deployment (32%
by 2030)
Disruptive
Technology (75%
by 2030)
SMR Market Share
for U.S.
Manufacturers
50% of Domestic,
20% of Int.
50% of Domestic,
20% of Int.
50% of Domestic,
20% of Int.
50% of Domestic,
20% of Int.