Sustaining water, easing scarcity - Population Action International

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The Case of the Nile River Basin Perhaps the most vivid example of the interaction of population growth, water scarcity and international conflict is the vast basin of the Nile River in northeastern Africa. The 10 countries with territory in the Nile basin contain 40 percent of Africa’s population (not all actually within the basin) and make up 10 percent of its land mass. More than 85 percent of the Nile’s water comes from the Blue Nile, which originates in Ethiopia. 24 However, the vast majority of the river’s flow, estimated at about 85 billion cubic meters annually, is used by Egypt, the last nation on the Nile’s path to the Mediterranean Sea. 25 For centuries the cultural symbol of Egypt, the Nile provides almost all the fresh water used by more than 60 million Egyptians living along its banks. When few people lived upstream—and modern economic development was a distant dream for the entire basin—Egypt saw no reason to worry about its dependence on the Nile’s waters. Its complacency is now ending, however, as the upstream nations begin to harness the Nile’s waters to provide economic prosperity for their growing numbers. Ethiopia, for example, recently emerged from a long period of civil war and famine into a period of accelerated growth and economic development. The government has overseen the construction of more than 200 small dams that will use nearly 500 million cubic meters of the Nile’s flow annually. Additional dams are being planned to increase the country’s irrigation and hydropower capacity. 26 Though Ethiopia’s current development plans will require only a small portion of the Nile’s water, its potential demands could significantly reduce the river’s flow into Egypt. Ethiopia has an estimated 3.7 million hectares of land, an area larger than Belgium, that could be irrigated. 27 With a population nearly the size of Egypt’s and a faster annual rate of population growth—3.2 percent annually for Ethiopia versus 2 percent for Egypt—Ethiopia will need to develop a large portion of this land for agricultural use. 28 Irrigating only half this land area with water from the Nile could reduce the river’s flow to Egypt by 15 percent. 29 Hydrologists doubt the basin produces enough renewable fresh water to satisfy the irrigation plans of both Ethiopia and Egypt. 30 Egypt itself is raising the stakes with ambitious plans for its New Valley land reclamation project. Pressed by population growth within its own borders, the Egyptian government has begun a massive irrigation project in the country’s western desert in an attempt to persuade seven million Egyptians to move there from the crowded Nile Valley. When completed, a pipeline will carry up to five billion cubic meters of Nile water from the Lake Nasser reservoir to the New Valley site to facilitate the construction of new cities and provide irrigation to more than 200,000 hectares of desert, an area more than twice the size of New York City. 31 Sudan, meanwhile, plans to build its own dam on the Nile north of the capital, Karthoum, where the Blue Nile and the White Nile converge before flowing into Egypt. 32 The remaining Nile basin countries currently use only a small portion of the river’s water. However, with their cumulative population now numbering over 140 million and projected to grow to more than 340 million by the year 2025, it is inevitable that these countries will soon begin to lay claim to a larger share of the Nile’s flow to meet their growing irrigation and development needs. 33 The Egyptian government has long recognized upstream development of the Nile’s waters as a potential national security threat and has stated its willingness to go to war to preserve its access to fresh water. As the basin’s governments come to understand the dynamics of the population-water relationship, however, advance planning and diplomacy may win out over saber rattling and armed conflict. In recent years, representatives of the 10 nations of the Nile watershed have met to review past agreements and consider possible future ones 12
Comparison of Current and Projected Freshwater Stress and Scarcity Current Freshwater Availability 1995 population # of countries Scarcity 166 million 18 Stress 270 million 11 Total World Population 5.7 billion Using 1994 and 1996 UN Population Projections 1994 UN Projections 1996 UN Projections population # of countries* population # of countries* 2050 (LOW) Scarcity 1.1 billion 33 1.0 billion 31 Stress 2.4 billion 18 970 million 17 Total World Population 7.9 billion 7.7 billion 2050 (MEDIUM) Scarcity 1.9 billion 43 1.7 billion 39 Stress 2.5 billion 15 2.3 billion 15 Total World Population 9.8 billion 9.4 billion 2050 (HIGH) Scarcity 2.4 billion 44 2.2 billion 42 Stress 5.3 billion 22 4.6 billion 18 Total World Population 11.9 billion 11.2 billion *The table on the left lists the number of people currently living in countries considered water scarce or water stressed. The table above compares estimates of number of people projected to live in water scarce or water stressed countries in 2050 based on low, medium and high 1994 and 1996 UN population projections. Note that the total number of countries and people estimated to experience water stress and scarcity is lower under all three 1996 projections. related to their use of this shared natural resource. 34 The whole world is watching the Nile and similar international watersheds. At a March 1997 forum on international water issues in Marrakech, Morocco, UN Secretary General Kofi Annan stressed that the projected growth of world population over the next 30 years makes developing cooperative international agreements on shared water resources “one of the most urgent issues on the global agenda.” 35 And in May, the UN General Assembly approved a convention to establish guidelines for cooperation on sharing the benefits of international watercourses. 36 The U.S. State Department and Environmental Protection Agency have opened field offices called environmental hubs to help developing nations negotiate transboundary solutions to regional environmental problems such as freshwater scarcity, deforestation and air pollution, and to raise the profile of environmental issues in global diplomacy. The Eastern Africa hub, which specializes in Nile Basin water resource issues, recently opened in Addis Ababa. 37 The growing interest in the region’s water issues is encouraging, but the challenge of reconciling competing claims on the Nile will continue to be complicated by political and economic concerns. The scope for water conservation and international cooperation is large, but the competition is unlikely to find permanent resolution until the region’s population approaches stabilization. Why Population Matters As recent changes in projected population growth illustrate, population projections can change for the worse or for the better depending on the factors that influence them. The difference between the 1994 and 1996 UN projections demonstrates the impact that even slight changes in population growth rates can have over time on the amount of renewable fresh water available to each person. Slower population growth rates do not, however, occur on their own. They result from the desires of hundreds of millions of women and men to have fewer children—and the efforts of governments and other institutions to help them achieve these goals throughout their reproductive years. Now more than ever, sound policies that will promote the transition to a stable population size remain critical. Pursued consistently, such efforts can delay the onset of water stress and scarcity in many countries, buying precious time for strategies that can make freshwater resources endure for generations to come. 13
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