Sustaining water, easing scarcity - Population Action International

the effects of slower
population growth
on water resources
can be even more
dramatic. India, for
example, whose
current population
approaches one
billion, was projected
in 1994 to begin
experiencing water
stress as early as
2015 and to remain
water stressed through
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Billions of people
8
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6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2020
at least the year 2050. Under the new UN projections,
however, it is conceivable that India will not
cross the water stress benchmark until 2035, a full
decade later than the most optimistic projection
made in 1994. More important, if its total fertility
rate were to fall in accordance with the low projection,
India’s population could actually begin to
decline towards the middle of the next century,
bringing the country back out of water stress within
a decade. Figure 6, which uses the UN 1996
low projection, shows India crossing the water
stress benchmark by 2035—then returning to a
state of relative water sufficiency by 2045 as a
result of declining population growth.
The example of India helps illustrate the enormous
potential for conflict, or alternatively, the
opportunity for cooperation, inherent in the relationship
between population growth and renewable
fresh water. For years India and Bangladesh
have bitterly disputed the rights to water from the
Ganges River, which flows through Nepal and
India before reaching Bangladesh. The river system
is estimated to affect the lives of more than
500 million Indians, who depend on its flows for
everything from irrigation, fishing and navigation
to washing, drinking and worship. 9 The river
is also essential for the more than 40 million
Bangladeshis whose wheat and rice crops it
waters during the spring planting season. 10
Figure 6
WORLD POPULATION EXPERIENCING FRESHWATER SCARCITY,
STRESS AND RELATIVE SUFFICIENCY 2020-2050
Low Population Projection
Relative Sufficiency
Stress
Scarcity
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Chart: Population Action International Data Source: UN Population Division
The sharp rise in the number of people experiencing water stress between 2030 and
2035 is caused by India crossing the water stress benchmark due to its growing population.
The sharp decline in the population experiencing water stress between 2040 and
2045 is a result of India’s escaping water stress by slowing its population growth.
After almost 50 years of
asserting it had the right
to take as much water
from the river as it needed
in order to cope with the
demands of its rapidly
expanding population,
the Indian government in
December 1996 signed a
30-year treaty with
Bangladesh that will provide
both countries with
a guaranteed flow of water
from the river during the
crucial months of March, April and May. 11 The
treaty is looked on by many as a promising example
that even countries with burgeoning populations
can negotiate how to share their limited
freshwater supplies. The need for such cooperative
efforts will continue to increase in regions such
as Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia,
where population growth will continue to put
pressure on available freshwater resources well
into the 21st century.
Impacts of Water Scarcity
Do these new data mean water availability is
improving Hardly. Even given the more encouraging
population projections from the 1996 UN data,
the problem of water scarcity will still get worse
before it gets better. Currently, 166 million people
in 18 countries are suffering from water scarcity,
while almost 270 million more in 11 additional
countries are considered water stressed. As Figure
7 indicates, PAI estimates that by the year 2050,
according to the UN 1996 medium projection, the
percentage of the world’s population in countries
experiencing water stress and scarcity will increase
more than fivefold.
This demographic pressure has led one international
water resources expert to predict that
for these and many other countries, the lack of
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