Sustaining water, easing scarcity - Population Action International

Billions of people
Billions of people
Billions of people
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
2000
2000
2005
2005
2010
2010
2015
2015
Figure 1
WORLD POPULATION EXPERIENCING FRESHWATER SCARCITY,
STRESS AND RELATIVE SUFFICIENCY 1995–2050
Low Population Projection
2020
2020
2025
Medium Population Projection
High Population Projection
2025
2030
2030
2035
2035
2040
2040
2045
2045
2050
2050
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Charts: Population Action International Data Source: UN Population Division
Scarcity Stress Relative Sufficiency
These figures show the number of people living in countries experiencing water stress,
scarcity or relative sufficiency at five-year increments under the UN’s low, medium
and high population growth projections. As the population growth rate increases, so
does the proportion of people living in countries experiencing water stress and scarcity.
Summary
As a result of an unexpected recent
slowing of population growth, the
United Nations projects that world
population will be smaller by 450 million
people in the year 2050 than it projected just
three years ago. This reduction is primarily
the result of significant declines in birthrates
throughout the world. While this is good
news by itself, reductions in population
growth also have beneficial effects on the
amount of renewable natural resources such
as water, air and forests that are available to
each of us. Using the United Nations 1996
population projections, Population Action
International (PAI) has revised previous
estimates and projections of the amount of
fresh water available to each person in most
of the world’s countries from today to the
middle of the coming century. Based on
this new range of population figures, PAI
calculates that depending on how rapidly
population grows, there will be between
400 million and 1.5 billion fewer people
living in water short countries in the year
2050 than previously projected.
This improvement in the assessment of
the future availability of renewable fresh
water has a wide range of potential benefits,
from less pressure on freshwater ecosystems
and underground aquifers to less tension
between nations competing for shared water
resources. However, even under this
improved scenario, renewable freshwater
scarcity will continue to remain a problem
for millions of people around the world.
There are currently more than 430 million
people living in countries considered water
stressed. Moreover, PAI projects that by
2050, the percentage of the world’s population
living in water stressed countries will
increase by anywhere from three to fivefold.
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