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2012 IRP Reference Case Load Forecast Jon M. Bowman Sr. Supply Side Planner November 2011
Objectives • Provide an overview of recent energy, demand, and customer growth trends at <strong>TEP</strong> and UNSE • Outline the energy and peak demand assumptions in the IRP Base (Reference) Case • Discuss major risks to the load forecast and the methods used to address uncertainty 2
Page 1 and 2: Integrated Resource Planning Overvi
Page 3 and 4: Workshop Agenda Resource Planning O
Page 5 and 6: Why do an IRP • New Resource Plan
Page 7 and 8: Minimum Planning Requirements • D
Page 9 and 10: Managing Portfolio Risk • Load Fo
Page 11 and 12: First Power Plant downtown on N. Ch
Page 13 and 14: Changes in the 60’s 4
Page 15 and 16: 1950 Demoss Petrie 100 MW
Page 17 and 18: 1964 Interconnection to Arizona Pub
Page 19 and 20: 1972 Palo Verde - 521 MW By 1975, m
Page 21 and 22: Transmission Resources San Juan McK
Page 23 and 24: 1974 - Navajo - 112 MW By 1985 Tucs
Page 25 and 26: Springerville Generating Station 19
Page 27 and 28: Luna Station - 2006- 190MW Particip
Page 29 and 30: Where we are now Today TEP has over
Page 31: UNS-Electric Valencia (Nogales) - F
Page 35 and 36: TEP 2010 Sales by Rate Class OPA 2%
Page 37 and 38: TEP Commercial Customer Growth 39,0
Page 39 and 40: TEP Baseline Energy by Rate Class 8
Page 41 and 42: UNSE 2010 Sales by Rate Class Minin
Page 43 and 44: UNSE Commercial Customer Growth 12,
Page 45 and 46: UNSE Baseline Energy by Rate Class
Page 47 and 48: Risks to Forecast • As with all k
Page 49 and 50: TEP and UES Resource Planning Works
Page 51 and 52: Agenda 1. Overview and Trends: 20 m
Page 53 and 54: States with EE Standards Source: AC
Page 55 and 56: 2009 Energy Saving as a percent of
Page 57 and 58: 2011 / 2012 Implementation Plan TEP
Page 59 and 60: Energy Efficiency Cost Recovery Pro
Page 61 and 62: New Construction/Energy-Star Access
Page 63 and 64: Low Income Weatherization Arizona E
Page 65 and 66: Efficient Products (CFL Buydown)
Page 67 and 68: Power Partners Project - DLC 76 F 8
Page 69 and 70: Community Energy Workshops Train-th
Page 71 and 72: Appliance Recycling Get rid of this
Page 73 and 74: Small Business YTD 2011 Warehouse 1
Page 75 and 76: Large Business Prescriptive YTD 201
Page 77 and 78: Large Business YTD 2011 • 16,810,
Page 79 and 80: Commercial Agenda Direct Load Contr
Page 81: New Commercial Programs • Schools
Page 84 and 85:
IRP and Renewable Resources • ACC
Page 86 and 87:
Distributed Generation Programs PV
Page 88 and 89:
TEP Utility REST Compliance 2009 70
Page 90 and 91:
Wind Power • Mature technology
Page 92 and 93:
Solar Thermal • Several technolog
Page 94 and 95:
Geothermal • Mature technology
Page 96 and 97:
Renewable Resources 2011 Levelized
Page 98 and 99:
Resource Mix and Assumptions Victor
Page 100 and 101:
Loads and 2012 Resources 3500 Retai
Page 102 and 103:
Forward Gas Market $12.00 Permian G
Page 104 and 105:
IRP Expansion Options • Coal Reso
Page 106 and 107:
• Combined Cycle Expansion Option
Page 108 and 109:
Expansion Options - Other Resources
Page 110 and 111:
2027 Resource Mix Energy Capacity G
Page 112 and 113:
Environmental Performance 35,000 UN
Page 114 and 115:
Current and Future Environmental Re
Page 116 and 117:
CO 2 Cost Assumptions 40 35 30 $11M
Page 118 and 119:
Water Use 8,000,000 Water Use in Ar
Page 121 and 122:
Portfolio Strategy Mike Sheehan, Di
Page 123 and 124:
Transmission & Renewable Portfolio
Page 125 and 126:
Staying in Coal Issues Related to C
Page 127 and 128:
Quantifying Portfolio Risk • Part
Page 129:
2012 IRP Portfolio Plan • Develop
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