Impact of initial conditions and model resolution - NOAA

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Dynamical Forecasting: from Weather to Climate Atmospheric initial conditions Forecast lead times Land initial conditions 0-14 days 15-90 days 90 days and beyond Synoptic Subseasonal Seasonal-to-Interannual Oceanic initial conditions Mainly affected by Atmospheric I.C. Affected by all I.C. Mainly affected by Oceanic I.C. but also by land I.C. (e.g., snow cover) Weather MJO affecting weather statistics ENSO affecting weather statistics
Issues : Initialization • Is it better to use a frozen reanalysis system (which is preferable when bias correction is crucial) rather than the best initial conditions available at the time and an estimate for bias correction • What is the impact of initializing the subseasonal forecast by GDAS (operational analysis) or Reanalysis-2
Page 1 and 2: Experiments conducted under NOAA’
Page 3 and 4: Dynamical Forecasting: from Weather
Page 5: Currently: Weather forecast (GFS) i
Page 9 and 10: Retrospective forecast design: May
Page 11 and 12: U200 averaged between 20S-20N: no c
Page 13 and 14: U200 averaged between 20S-20N clima
Page 15 and 16: Impact to more local features • W
Page 17 and 18: In fact, the northward shift of the
Page 19 and 20: For more details on subseasonal for
Page 21 and 22: Mean August Precipitation The mean
Page 23 and 24: OBS T254 T126 Monsoon and SE areas
Page 25 and 26: Forecast of August monthly Precipit
Page 27 and 28: OBS August 2002: weak tropical acti
Page 29 and 30: Some conclusions • The model capt
Page 31: Monthly anomalies over the oceans a

Impact of initial conditions and model resolution - NOAA

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