Mistra Arctic Futures Annual Report 2011 (pdf)

MISTRA
ARCTIC
FUTURES
IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT
2011
ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 1

Content
Sustainable development in the Arctic....................................................................................................4
Breaking the ice ........................................................................................................................................6
Beginning of things to come ...................................................................................................................7
ARCTIC GAMES
Interactive development and application of a transdisciplinary
framework for sustainable governance options of Arctic natural resources ....................................... 8
ASSESSING ARCTIC FUTURES
Voices, Resources and Governance ........................................................................................................22
ARCTIC FUTURES
Managing Competition and Promoting Cooperation ..........................................................................32
PHOTOS:
Dieter Müller, page 1, 6, 50, 53, 57
Dag Avango, page 5, 22, 25, 28, 36
Sofia Rickberg, page 6
Sebastian Troedson, page 7
Boris Iomdin, page 8
Sondrekv/Wikimedia Commons, page 15
Patrick Kelley/DVIDSHUB, page 33
Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration, page 35
Michael Tolzmann/U.S. Air Force photo, page 38
Antti Leppänen/Wikimedia Commons, page 47
Albina Pashkevich, page 60-61
PREPARING FOR AND RESPONDING TO DISTURBANCE
Arctic lessons for Sweden .......................................................................................................................42
FROM RESOURCE HINTERLAND TO GLOBAL PLEASURE PERIPHERY
Assessing the role of tourism for sustainable development in Arctic communities ...........................50
Communication .......................................................................................................................................64
Annual report programme level ............................................................................................................72
Annual report per project ......................................................................................................................72
©MISTRA ARCTIC FUTURES
Editors: Sofia Rickberg and Håkan Borgström
Production and design: Capito AB
Print: Orion Tryck AB
www.arcticfutures.se
Mistra Arctic Futures
c/o Swedish Polar Research Secretariat
Box 50003
104 05 Stockholm
SWEDEN
PAGE 2 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
IN THE ARCTIC
What is the challenge
Environmental change in the Arctic leads to both dangers and
possibilities. In the wake of these lie socio-economic changes
and new political ambitions. The consequences can be of
widely varying character, running the full range from local to
international levels. Natural resources that were once deemed
impossible to access are now potential assets, causing increasing
focus of attention on geopolitical questions. Shrinking sea ice
creates new potential transportation routes for shipping. This
development is of great economic and political interest, not
only to the Arctic countries but to countries outside the Arctic
region as well. At the same time, people and organizations
from around the world want to protect the Arctic landscape,
animals and nature.
How can the programme contribute to a solution
The aim of the Mistra programme Arctic Futures in a Global
Context is to stimulate research that contributes to sustainable
development in the Arctic. The interdisciplinary research
programme consists of five separate research projects, joined
under the programme through a common focus on the future
of the Arctic. Although majority of the work is dedicated to
the specific research issues in each of the component projects,
the programmatic format makes it possible to build a strong
multidisciplinary competence base.
Who will benefit from the results
Activities at the programme level are dedicated to
strengthening outreach efforts and improving accessibility to
comprehensive information from the projects for non-scientific
stakeholders in need of expertise on Arctic issues. Nevertheless,
the programme as a whole also makes efforts to reach out to
the scientific community.
A full list of meetings and publications can be found on
page 64.
PAGE 4 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 5

Breaking the ice
The aim of the Mistra programme
Arctic Futures in a Global Context is to
stimulate research that contributes to
sustainable development in the Arctic.
Although the Arctic is attracting a
great deal of attention, Arctic research
in Sweden has traditionally had a
bias toward the natural sciences. This programme is focused
on the socioeconomic and political aspects of the Arctic and
its global linkages. The vision is to stimulate Arctic research
in the social sciences and humanities, thereby creating strong
research environments and attracting a new generation of
scholars, as well as linking Swedish science in this field to wider
international research networks.
In contrast to most Mistra programmes “Arctic Futures in a
Global Context” is comprised of five separate projects. These
are coordinated by a Programme Director hosted at the Swedish
Polar Research Secretariat, providing important value-adding
support services such as data handling and outreach activities.
Researchers from a variety of disciplines are involved in the
programme, covering a broad spectrum of scientific methods,
traditions and research cultures. This diversity is reflected in the
ways the research is presented in this report, and how results
are achieved. The project reports collected here were written
for a midterm review; final outcomes are not expected until late
2013. Nevertheless, these reports will play an essential role in
defining a possible next phase of a Mistra Arctic programme,
to commence in 2014. The potential for a more comprehensive
approach will then be explored.
Anders Karlqvist
Chairman of the board
Mistra Arctic Futures in a Global Context
Beginning of things to come
The Mistra programme Arctic
Futures in a Global Context is
halfway through its first phase,
and an evaluation in May 2012 lies
ahead. The projects included in the
programme are already fruitful in
their own rights, and are delivering
according to plan.
The process leading up to the start of this programme
in 2011 was long. Cecilia Dahlberg was the Programme
Director until the beginning of 2012. She developed
a model for collaborating across the projects that the
programme will continue to use, and laid the foundation
for an activity plan that embraces joint meetings and
outreach activities for different stakeholder groups.
The Arctic is an emerging issue on global political
and social agendas – even if it has always been a quiet
place – and Sweden needs to be a part of that movement,
preferably through national expertise with international
commitments and outlook. I look forward to leading
and coordinating the activities in this timely research
programme. We anticipate that the wide range of issues
covered by the research projects in this programme will
result in many interesting opportunities for linkages
between the projects; implementing joint outreach
activities is one way of unifying them.
The research programme was represented at the
ICASS VII conference in June 2011, as well as at the
meeting for Senior Arctic Officials of the Arctic Council,
in Luleå in November 2011. Researchers from several of
the projects presented their work at the IPY conference
From Knowledge to Action in April 2012 in Montreal. The
website arcticfutures.se is one of the foremost channels
of communication for the programme. A folder about the
programme was produced in 2011, and an updated version
was printed for the programme symposium Arctic Futures:
Increasing Knowledge in Social Sciences and the Humanities
held during the Stockholm Polar Week in March 2012 at the
Canadian Embassy in Stockholm.
Reaching out and interacting with fellow researchers,
stakeholders and policymakers will be important for the
rest of this first programme phase. Swedish researchers
in the social sciences and humanities that are interested
in Arctic and Antarctic issues will be coming together and
join ranks in attempt to develop a better position and a
common approach for reaching out to research funding
sources, the international science community and other
target groups for their work. I believe that the Arctic
Futures in a Global Context programme can benefit from,
and provide benefits to, such efforts.
Sofia Rickberg
Programme Director
Mistra Arctic Futures in a Global Context
PAGE 6 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 7

ARCTIC GAMES
Interactive development and application of a transdisciplinary framework
for sustainable governance options of Arctic natural resources
The aim of the Arctic Games project is to support
decision-making by developing an analytical framework
for identifying sustainable options for governing
the utilization of natural resources in the Arctic.
The framework integrates game theory, studies of
environmental governance, economic valuation of
ecosystem services and cost-benefit analysis.
CONTACT:
Tore Söderqvist, Enveco, project leader:
tore@enveco.se
Scott Cole, EnviroEconomics Sweden, deputy project leader:
scott@eesweden.com
1. Introduction
This report forms the basis for the mid-term evaluation of
the research programme Mistra Arctic Futures in a Global
Context regarding Arctic Games, one of the five projects in the
programme running from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2013.
Arctic Games research is being carried out by an international
team possessing expertise in different social-science specialities,
including economics, game theory and sociology. The aim is to
develop and apply a transdisciplinary framework for identifying
sustainable options for governing the utilization of natural
resources in the Arctic. The project contributes to building
capacity to perform social-science research on Arctic issues, by
co-funding four PhD students and a number of researchers for
which the Arctic has not previously been in focus. The research
team is presented in Table 1, and can be seen on page 8 at
windy Unstad in Lofoten, Norway, 8 March 2012. Detailed
presentations of each team member are found in the Project
Plan that was approved by Mistra in May 2011 (deliverable #0;
see Table 2 for all deliverables indicated by “#”).
PAGE 8 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 9

TABLE 1 PARTNERS, PERSONNEL AND NUMBER OF PERSON-MONTHS (PM)
Partners
Enveco Miljöekonomi AB, Stockholm (Sweden), www.enveco.se
(Enveco is the contractor with Mistra. The partners below are
subcontractors to Enveco.)
The Centre for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR), Moscow
(Russia), www.cefir.ru
Department of Economics, Stockholm University (Sweden),
www.ne.su.se
Division of Environmental Strategies Research, Royal Institute of
Technology (KTH), Stockholm (Sweden), http://www.kth.se
In this report we present the status of the project as of 31
March 2012. The report is structured, in part, around Arctic
Games’ stepwise framework (Figure 1). The motivation for
and aims of the project are explained in Section 2. Preliminary
findings, corresponding to framework Steps 0 and 1 in Figure
1, are summarized in Section 3. Continued work and expected
outcomes, corresponding to Steps 2, 3, and 4, are discussed
in Section 4. Project activities, including project deliverables
(Table 2) and outreach and communication (Table 3), are
summarized in Section 5. Finally, project activities are linked
to the expected project outcomes from the Project Plan (#0) in
Table 4. Financial details are included in Section 6. More details
Researchers
Dr. Tore Söderqvist (TS), project leader
Ms. Gerda Kinell (GK), deputy project leader/Mr. Scott Cole
(SC), deputy project leader during GK’s parental leave in 2012
Ms. Frida Franzén (FF), PhD student at Södertörn University/
KTH
Mr. Linus Hasselström (LH), PhD student at KTH
Ms. Åsa Soutukorva (ÅS)
Dr. Sergei Izmalkov (SI)
Ms. Yulia Khaleeva (YK)
PM per year
(average over 3 years)
1
3.5
about project results through 31 December 2011 can be found
in the 2011 Annual Project Report (#1).
2. Motivations, aims and value to stakeholders
The future development of the Arctic is of global interest, as it is
biologically connected to the rest of the world through migrating
fish, whales and birds. The area acts as a cooling system for
the Earth; the direct impacts from glacial melting and sea-level
rise will lead to inevitable changes for the global community
(Gradinger et al. 2004). Effective environmental governance in the
Arctic is indispensable for ensuring global ecosystem health, peace
4
1.5
2.4
Mr. Eric Sjöberg (ES), PhD student 6.4
Dr. Cecilia Håkansson (CH)
Ms. Maria Noring (MN), PhD student
EnviroEconomics Sweden, Umeå (Sweden), www.eesweden.com See SC above. See SC above.
Northern Research Institute (NORUT), Tromsø (Norway), www.norut.no Dr. Eirik Mikkelsen (EM) 0.5
University of Nordland, Bodø (Norway), www.uin.no
Ms. Merete Kvamme Fabritius (MKF)
Prof. Audun Sandberg (AS)
Total
(% person-months for PhD students)
1
1
1
4.1
0.2
0.5
27.1
(59 %)
and prosperity. The area poses decision-making challenges due
to strategic interests in resources in the region (e.g., oil and gas,
fisheries, tourism) and the potential for new shipping routes (AGP
2010). Under a faster-than-expected global-warming scenario,
confrontations between stakeholders (nation states, multinational
corporations, indigenous peoples, etc.) are likely to increase,
which will exacerbate the problem of increasing global resource
scarcity. Effective governance must incorporate these interests
while balancing several unavoidable financial, social, cultural and
ecological trade-offs. Future decision-making will likely address
issues such as resource extraction, economic growth, sustainable
management of fisheries, preservation of natural, cultural and
landscape values, and opening up new transportation routes. The
challenge for future Arctic development is to evaluate resource
trade-offs and the strategic behaviour of various stakeholders
in a manner consistent with social profitability and sustainable
development, and to do so under the auspices of efficient and
accepted governance structures. Existing social-science tools
Figure 1. Stepwise transdisciplinary framework
require improvement, to better support decision making and
avoid potentially-costly resource conflicts.
Arctic Games’ main deliverable is a framework to better
address these types of conflicts. The framework has two
objectives:
(1) to improve social-science research, and;
(2) to provide value to stakeholders.
The final framework (#10 and #12) fulfils the first objective
by being a point of departure for further research, analysis,
critique and peer review among researchers who wish to better
understand decision-making processes. The second objective will
be fulfilled by ensuring that the framework helps decision makers
understand the motivations of different actors, to better foresee
conflicts and possible solutions, and to assess the ecological values
at stake. We consider the framework transdisciplinary, in the sense
that it requires not only discussion among academic disciplines
(economics, game theory, governance), but also interaction
with the stakeholders themselves (Stokols 2006). As a key social
science contribution, the final framework will provide value for
both researchers, who will apply and critique the framework,
and decision makers, who will benefit from its application to
specific conflicts. The stakeholders themselves will vary depending
on the policy application, but may include multinationals, local
fishermen, indigenous cultures, the tourist industry, etc.
The framework structure is based on the stepwise progression
shown in Figure 1, where researchers begin by identifying a
potential case and future policy scenarios (Step 0). The following
four steps in the framework – which may be somewhat iterative
in nature – are used to characterize challenges and suggest policy
options. Ultimately, the research may also result in suggestions
for new governance structures.
The project team is developing the framework by
incorporating and integrating four main components:
Game Theory is used to model interactions between individuals,
firms, or corporations (actors), to better illuminate their interests
(strategies) so that decision-makers can better understand
motivations and likely outcomes. This social-science tool has been
PAGE 10 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 11

used in diverse contexts, such as politics, economics, litigation
procedures, contract theory, auctions etc., and is suitable in the
Arctic to help anticipate and avoid resource conflicts among
stakeholders. The strength of this approach is that it can be
used to break down complex interactions, in order to better
understand core conflicts so that decision makers can make
improved and more informed decisions. But because game theory
necessarily requires simplification, it is best complemented with
the other components below.
Environmental Governance is the study of how decisions about
environmental issues are made, and is a function of the structures
and processes in societies that shape and distribute power
and actions, e.g., laws, regulations, institutional organization,
design of property rights, negotiation, public consultation and
other decision-making processes (Lebel et al. 2006). Governance
supplements the game theory models in our framework by
enriching the discussion with real on-the-ground contextual
information regarding specific conflicts. Governance issues are
particularly salient in the Arctic, which is characterized by a
diverse set of conventions, agreements and national legislation.
Because a binding treaty for the entire region (as in the Antarctic
Treaty) is unlikely, the Arctic Council will come under increasing
pressure to support effective governance, which has been the
focus of extensive research in recent years (e.g. Young 1998,
Ostrom 2005 and 2007).
Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services (ES) refers to the
mapping, quantification and, where possible, monetization of
the values that nature provides society (e.g. TEEB 2010). Societies
in and around the Arctic have or will benefit from several types
of services that are typically undervalued (e.g., clean water,
food provision, transportation routes, carbon sequestration,
etc.). Information on the existing and threatened values of
Arctic resources will be important for identifying and evaluating
long-term sustainable solutions. Our framework thus takes an
ecosystem-services approach (NRC 2004), which supports decisionmaking
directly but also feeds ES values into the game theory
models.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is a decision-making tool for
measuring social profitability (or loss), i.e., an improvement or
deterioration in social welfare following a policy, regulation, or
project (Boardman et al. 2010). If the total benefits are greater
than the total costs, a project is deemed economically profitable.
However, an important aspect is how the costs and benefits
are distributed across society (who wins and who loses). This
information is key to understanding the payoffs of players in a
game, where the distinction between private and social costs and
benefits may be important.
To date the project has identified the Lofoten-Barents Sea as
a case study area to which we will apply – and subsequently
improve – the framework. This case study will not only provide
relevant information for local, regional and national stakeholders
in Norway but, because it was chosen as emblematic of Arctic
conflicts today, it will provide a number of generalizable lessons
that can be transferred to other resource conflicts in the Arctic.
A Reference Group of stakeholders linked to the case study is
presently being established. This process was initiated by a faceto-face
stakeholder meeting in Bodø in March 2012 ([m], [r], see
Table 3 for all activities indicated by a letter within “[ ]”). Further,
the case study selection has helped us to extend our network of
contacts through collaborations with economists in Norway ([f],
[o]), oil-spill specialists in Stockholm ([j]), and an ecologist at the
Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics ([k]). We are currently
seeking complementary funding to expand and improve our
valuation study (#8), which would augment data-collection
efforts.
3. Preliminary findings
Preliminary findings are based on Steps 0 and 1 in Figure 1. See
the 2011 Annual Project Report (#1) for more detailed findings.
a. Step 0: Identifying case study and potential futures
The project has selected the Lofoten-Barents Sea area as the
case study for developing the framework. Located in the
greater Barents Sea and the High Arctic ecosystem, this area is
a key habitat for migratory birds, mammals and fish. Lofoten
is a spawning ground for the Northeast Atlantic Cod, one of
the world’s most productive fish stocks (Durant et al. 2008),
and is consequently of importance for the entire Barents-Sea
ecosystem. The continental shelf edge outside Lofoten is also a
rich source of oil and gas, and represents potential oil revenue
for the Norwegian government. The diverse values at stake – ES,
tourism, fisheries, and oil and gas revenues – involve various
stakeholders and are, in many respects, a microcosm of potential
Arctic disputes. Studying stakeholders in Lofoten may help to
illuminate common strategies that may arise elsewhere in the
Arctic.
In order to create a policy-relevant environment for the
framework we have identified several possible “futures” for
our Lofoten case study, including: (1) oil extraction; (2) World
Heritage Area (WHA) designation, and; (3) a baseline scenario,
i.e., a business as usual reference scenario. Each future may lead
to alternative scenarios, e.g., oil extraction may lead to oil spills
or a gas blow-out, while WHA designation may increase tourism
revenues.
b. Step 1: Mapping inputs for the case study
Step 1 involves mapping key research inputs to apply the
framework to the Lofoten case study, and was a major focus of
efforts during the first project year. The mapping activities listed
below focus on existing knowledge gaps, which were found to
be rather substantial. This indicates a general need for collecting
social-science data for the Arctic. As will be illustrated below,
such data and results need to be combined with natural-science
data and results. Doing so necessitates collaboration with natural
scientists, such as ecologists. In general, identifying combinations
of this kind that are crucial for supporting decision-making is
an important area for future work, even beyond this research
project.
Governance mapping. We consider five levels of governance
in a typical Arctic setting: (1) local/municipal; (2) regional
(e.g. Lofoten); (3) provincial/county; (4) nation-state, and; (5)
international. Groups that try to influence decision making rarely
respect these boundaries; they cross them in order to influence
collective choices. For example, indigenous groups and groups
of fishermen, hunters and environmentalists try to influence the
Arctic Council (or other international bodies) in order to increase
the chances that their national or provincial governments will
make collective decisions that are to their advantage. Actors at
“lower governance levels” form coalitions with others in similar
strategic positions, with the aim of influencing governance levels
above them. When actors cross these governance borders, it can
turn relatively simple collective choices (e.g., whether or not to
allow oil exploration) into significant decision-making challenges
for a national government. In the case of Lofoten, the Norwegian
Parliament makes the final decision regarding possible futures
associated with oil extraction. Paper #7 explores how such
cross-boundary issues – in particular agendas and issues at the
international level – influence decision making with respect to an
Arctic nation-state’s management of its natural resources. Some
preliminary results were presented at an international Arctic
conference in June 2011 ([d]).
Stakeholder mapping. The purpose of stakeholder mapping
is to assist in designing an appropriate game structure (e.g.,
identifying alliances that may form) and to help inform the
development of a realistic oil-spill scenario for the valuation
study (see below). The main data sources for this mapping
effort include the Norwegian management plan (Meld. St. 2010)
and an initial stakeholder meeting in Bodø organized by the
project ([m]). The primary stakeholders in Lofoten include the oil
industry, the fishing industry, the tourism industry, NGOs, local
communities (the public) and local politicians (see #1). Members
of these groups have diverse opinions about future oil extraction.
The oil industry argues that oil poses little risk and is vital for
the region’s growth, given the decline of the fishing industry.
The fishing and tourism industries suggest that their economic
contribution is more sustainable. We find that heterogeneity
among Lofoten stakeholders in general makes it difficult to
assess the benefits of oil extraction scenarios, which, in turn,
suggests that our valuation study (#8) will make an important
contribution. Further, the Bodø stakeholder meeting led to the
conclusion that oil-spill scenarios are complex and require input
and involvement from diverse stakeholders (see [r]).
PAGE 12 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 13

Ecosystem-services (ES) mapping and associated values. The
purpose of surveying environmental resources is to identify the
most relevant ES in the study area, the values at stake, and the
most significant risks to those values. This requires knowledge
of key ecosystem characteristics of the area. We find that an
“oil extraction future” poses the most significant risk (#3).
Further, we find that oil transport is more likely than actual
extraction to cause an oil-spill impact. This has consequences for
the ES impacts and subsequent valuation (#8, #9). The ES value
mapping included a review of the literature on oil-spill impacts
in the Arctic. The search focused on stated preference valuation
studies, because we anticipate existence values to be significant.
Further, the search focused on impacts to ES in the Lofoten-
Barents Sea, since it represents a key component of the project.
Our review suggests a large knowledge gap. One of the few
relevant ex ante valuation studies (Carson et al. 2003 following
the Exxon Valdez spill) is too dated to be relevant to today’s
Arctic context. Further, we believe that ex ante studies – where
respondents are asked about their willingness to pay to prevent
a future spill – are particularly important, because they capture
not only the value of the ES loss but also the respondents’
perceived risk of a future spill. Both components are important
in assessing the social trade-offs of requiring increased spillprevention
measures. Further, most studies focus on the total
economic value of an industry (e.g., total profits of tourism),
which is less relevant than the marginal loss of value associated
with an oil spill (e.g., reduced tourism visitation due to an oil
spill). These findings motivate our current approach, used in #8,
to filling this “valuation” knowledge gap. Our work here will
be strengthened thanks to cooperation with Åsa Jansson (an
ecologist at the Beijer Institute ([k])), Norwegian experts ([f],
[o]), oil-spill experts ([j]) and stakeholders (see [r]).
Economic-activity mapping. The aim of economic-activity
mapping is to gain an improved understanding of the economic
incentives of stakeholders in the Lofoten area; who stands
to win and lose from different futures This is important
information for a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) (#9) and for
developing a game model (#4, #5). We conclude, for example,
that an oil-spill scenario is a policy-relevant future in Lofoten,
in part because it has the potential to impact several industries
(including fishing and tourism). We have conducted an indepth
tourism study (#2) in order to better understand the
unique tourism industry in Lofoten and to develop a baseline
for the WHA future. As an emerging Arctic industry, tourism
represents a middle road between the 400-year-old tradition
of resource mining and more recent conservation concerns.
Lofoten has one of the most developed tourism industries in
the Arctic and, having grown organically over the last 100
years, is a good indicator of how Arctic tourism can develop.
We find that tourism has developed in a “cluster manner,”
where accommodations based on the traditional fisherman’s
shack (rorbu) form a close network with the cultural heritage
segment, local food producers, and the new “experience
economy” (e.g., outdoor activities like surfing). Members of
this network of businesses support each other by directing
tourists to each others’ products. Even large hotel chains and
cruise companies have had to adjust to the cluster culture
of cooperation and their rules of conduct when starting
operations in Lofoten. This study will form the basis for a
scientific paper (#6). Further, we will explore whether this study
can complement findings in the Arctic Futures project From
Resource Hinterland to Global Pleasure Periphery
4. Expected outcomes
The focus of remaining work in 2012 and 2013 will be
on synthesizing mapping information from the Lofoten
case study for incorporation into Steps 2, 3 and 4 of the
framework, and developing the final transdisciplinary
framework.
a. Step 2: Identifying costs and benefits to stakeholders
Step 2 will provide key information needs related to oilspill
impacts. First, the successful Bodø meeting in March
2012 ([m]) will be followed up with more contacts with this
stakeholder group. Second, we will present the results of
the ES mapping (#3) at an international conference in Rio de
Janeiro in June 2012 ([i]). Third, we will carry out a contingent
PAGE 14 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 15

valuation survey of residents in Norway to estimate
willingness to pay for reducing the risk of oil spills in the
Lofoten area (#8), with a pilot study planned for the fall of
2012 and analysis by the spring of 2013. These ES and cultural
values are key inputs for the CBA (#9), which will provide
concrete policy guidance on, e.g., an optimal extent of oil-spill
prevention measures. Further, the results will provide key
inputs to the game-theory analysis, reducing uncertainty in
the games and thus improving the resulting information for
decision makers (see #5).
b. Step 3: Setting up games and solving them
Step 3 incorporates local mapping information (Step 1) and
costs and benefits (Step 2) to improve the game model (#4), in
order to better understand the strategies of different actors.
The model will go beyond the obvious question of whether
or not to drill for oil, and consider possibilities for agreements
between stakeholders, e.g., can the fishing industry support
oil exploration in exchange for concessions (“side payments”)
from the oil industry Identifying possible meeting points may
reduce the costly lobbying process, which ultimately hurts
all stakeholders. Paper #4 focuses on which parameters will
most likely affect such agreements, where a key parameter
is expected to be each stakeholder’s anticipated value from
different outcomes (e.g., fishermen anticipate lost value from
fishing closures or oil spills while the oil industry anticipates
profits from extraction). We will also explore how uncertainty
in anticipated values (or ES impacts) affects the incentives of
each actor. Because paper #4 is technical, we will also write a
paper for a popular-science audience, explaining the benefits
of game theory as a tool to help decision makers anticipate and
steer – rather than react to – a dynamic decision-making process
(#5). Finally, we will consider how to “scale up” this local model,
to fit alternative scenarios or to assist larger actors (e.g., Arctic
Council) (#10, #12).
c. Step 4: Evaluating results and existing governance structures
Step 4 requires integrating the four project components.
For example, the outputs of Step 2 (costs and benefits) are
expected to play an important role in Step 3 (setting up
games). In paper #7 we will evaluate existing governance
structures based on project findings. Further, #9 involves an
assessment of outcomes with respect to social profitability
and distributional impacts. For example, if outcomes
are costly (e.g., extensive lobbying), then alternative
governance structures may be suggested (e.g., collaborative
or participatory). We will also consider how the results of
the CBA in #9 may or may not lead to effective and/or “fair”
governance. These activities will primarily occur in the third
year of the project, but integration between the components
will be ongoing.
d. Final framework
Developing the final framework document (#10, #12) will
require synthesizing the lessons learned in the Lofoten case
study. However, the case-study approach inevitably addresses
site-specific issues in Lofoten, e.g., uniqueness of the tourism
industry, the centralized governance structure in Norway,
a predominantly “two player” game-theory model (oil and
fishing industries), and the fact that indigenous people do not
play a significant role. Thus, the final framework will have to
consider how to generalize these specific lessons to a broader
Arctic context. Further, some key tasks in developing the final
framework are to demonstrate a link between the project
components (e.g., between ES and economic valuation, and
between the net value produced by CBA and the game-theory
models), assess the stepwise procedure, and even consider the
advantages of linking just two or three of the project’s four
components for some applications.
5. Project deliverables and activities
All project deliverables, abstracts, and expected delivery dates
are presented in Table 2. Other project activities, including
outreach and communication, are presented in Table 3. Finally,
the activities in these two tables are linked to the expected
project outcomes as described in the Project Plan (#0) in
Table 4.
TABLE 2 PROJECT DELIVERABLES
Deliverable # Date Preliminary title and abstract
#0 9 May 2011 Arctic Games Project Plan
This document is the initial plan for the project and is available at the Arctic Games homepage at www.
arcticfutures.se.
#1 7 Feb 2012 Arctic Games Annual Project Report, year 1 (2011)
The project work accomplished in 2011 is described in this report. It is available at the Arctic Games homepage at
www.arcticfutures.se.
#2 Complete April
2012
#3 Final
30 April 2012
#4 Draft
June 2012
#5 Draft
Sept 2012
#6 Draft by
Dec 2012
#7 Draft version by
Spring 2013
Lofoten Tourism Futures: Actors and Strategies (Fabritius and Sandberg 2012)
The historical and cultural background for the Lofoten tourism as a typical Arctic tourism case is analyzed in this
report. The emergence of a unique tourist-cluster consisting of accommodation, cultural heritage, excitement and
local-food enterprises are explained. It is available at the Arctic Games homepage at www.arcticfutures.se.
The economic value of ecosystem services (ES) at risk from oil spills in the Barents Sea (To be presented at the ISEE
Conference in June 2012, see [i]) The Arctic is a highly important region for future oil extraction and other economic
activities, including shipping. Many of the ecosystems in the Arctic are sensitive and already under pressure, and
clean-up and recovery processes may be slower there compared to other regions, due to cold water, harsh weather
conditions, and long distances between ports and other infrastructure supporting preparedness. In this paper, we map
ES that might be affected from future oil spills in the Arctic, using the Barents Sea as a case.
Incomplete information in contests – oil exploration in Lofoten
Players participating in a contest do not always have full information about their opponents’ valuations of the prize.
In this study we explore the implications for exerting effort, expected profit, and the possibility of side payments to
avoid costly “lobbying” competition. We use the case of oil exploration outside Lofoten and the lobbying process to
affect Stortinget’s decision as a backdrop to the contest.
Games in the Arctic: Applying game theory to Arctic challenges
Game theory offers a tool to analyze how people make decisions. It has been successfully applied to a variety of
cases such as nuclear threats, analysis of traffic congestion, and studying board games. However, the technical and
complex literature on game theory makes it challenging to apply to real-life policy challenges. This article suggests
that Arctic management issues can be viewed through the lens of game theory, where potential conflicts can be
re-interpreted as a “game” with sometimes fairly predictable solutions. The purpose is to stimulate interest in using
this decision-making tool in the Arctic.
Arctic tourism scenarios, a comparative analysis
This paper will compare the processes (similarities and differences) behind tourist development found in the Arctic
Games Lofoten case with Arctic tourism development processes found in other areas of the Arctic, e.g. Russia,
Greenland and Canada. It may also draw on results from another Arctic Futures Project: From Resource Hinterland
to Global Pleasure Periphery
International concerns in domestic natural resource governance in the Arctic
In this paper we explore how the issues of crossing governance boundaries – in particular the agendas and issues
on the international level – influence decision making with respect to an Arctic nation-state’s management of its
natural resources. The paper will highlight some important and current cases, such as the development of the
Lofoten coastal area for oil development or tourism. The future of Lofoten is dependent on national jurisdiction,
and concerned stakeholders are to be found from very local to international levels. We discuss how international
concerns are used tactically in domestic resource battles in the Arctic and compare this approach to other approaches
in the Arctic.
PAGE 16 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 17

#8 Draft version by
Spring 2013
#9 Draft version by
Spring 2013
#10 Draft version by
Spring 2013
The economic value of ecosystem services (ES) in Lofoten - a contingent valuation study
In this paper we presents the results of an ex ante economic valuation study focusing on the willingness of the
Norwegian general public to pay to avoid a future oil spill in the Lofoten area. The main economic sectors in the
Lofoten area are the oil and gas industry, fishery and tourism. To varying degrees, these sectors affect and depend
on ES such as diversity, recreation and scenery. A monetary value of avoiding a decreased provision of ES will be
estimated by analyzing the impact on ES resulting from a future oil spill, as well as existing policy measures, using
the contingent valuation method. The results of the paper are of interest, as we believe that non-use values will
represent a large share of the total economic value of ES in Lofoten, and the Arctic in general.
Costs and benefits of oil/gas exploration versus designating the Lofoten-Barents Sea as a World Heritage Area
The Lofoten-Barents Sea area is characterized by valuable resources and ecosystem services (ES), which can lead to
conflict. In this paper we discuss the costs and benefits of two potential future scenarios of Lofoten-Barents Sea: 1)
oil/gas exploration and extraction; and 2) the designation of a World Heritage Area. The results from the contingent
valuation study (#8) will be used as an important input to the paper. An evaluation of distributional impacts (i.e.,
who wins and who loses) of different policy actions will be one major contribution of the paper. The results will be
of general interest, as our scenarios focus on resource conflicts that are shared across the Arctic region as a whole.
A framework for analysing the sustainability of governance options for Arctic natural resources
In this paper we will present the results of our development of an analytical framework by combining game theory,
studies of environmental governance, cost-benefit analysis and economic valuation of ecosystem services. The
framework is based on the Lofoten-Barents Sea case study, but its general applicability to other Arctic issues will
be discussed.
#11 January 2013 Annual Project Report, year 2 (2012)
This report will contain a description of the project work accomplished in 2012.
#12 January 2014 Annual Project Report, year 3 (2013)
In this report we will: (1) detail specific project accomplishments to date; (2) summarize the overall project, and; (3)
present the final transdisciplinary framework.
#13 Dec
2013
PhD Thesis by Maria Noring. Proposed title: Environmental valuation for decision and policy-making purposes.
#14 June 2013 PhD Thesis by Eric Sjöberg. (Title to be determined)
#15 2014 PhD Thesis by Linus Hasselström. Proposed title: Stated preferences practices vs. policy needs.
[e] 14 Nov 2011 “Arctic Games” presented at Workshop of Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana
University, USA.
[f] 11 Jan 2012 “Valuing marine ecosystem services affected by oil spills in the Baltic Sea & the
Northeast Atlantic” Presented at oil spill valuation workshop as part of initiating
collaboration with Norwegian researchers (Oslo, Norway).
[g] 16 Mar 2012 “Arctic Games Lofoten case study” presentation at Network meeting of Women in
Salten for Enterprise Development (GLØD), Norway.
Upcoming conferences
[h]
[i]
23-25 April
2012
16-19 June
2012
Other project activities – completed
“Pricing Ecosystem Services in Practice: Policies and Possibilities” to be presented at
Stockholm+40 – Partnership Forum for Sustainable Development.
“Ecosystem services at risk from oil spills in the Barents Sea” to be presented at
International Society of Ecological Economics 2012 conference, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
[j] 8 Feb 2012 Meeting in Stockholm with IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, resulting in
cooperation with oil-spill specialists Jonas Fejes and Annika Tegeback.
[k] 15 Feb 2012 Meeting in Stockholm with the Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, which is
involved in Arctic social-science research (see, e.g., www.access-eu.org). The meeting
resulted in further cooperation with ecologist Åsa Jansson, and a presentation by Anne-
Sophie Crépin at the Stakeholder Meeting at the Embassy of Canada on 27 March 2012
(see [p]).
[l] 27 Feb 2012 Project and programme used as a research example in guest lecture for an Introductory
Course in Microeconomics, Department of Economics, Stockholm University.
[m]
7 March
2012
Stakeholder meeting/focus group in Bodø, Norway, with representatives of, e.g., general
industry development, fisheries, the oil industry, the county administration and the
research community (anthropology and marine biology).
Presentation by AS
Presentation by SC
Presentation by MKF
Forum moderated by SC and LH
Presentation by MN, participation by LH
Presentation and participation by LH,
ÅS
Presentation and participation by TS, FF,
ÅS, ES, MN, CH
Presentation by TS
MN, LH, MKF, AS, Lofoten stakeholders
TABLE 3 OUTREACH AND COMMUNICATION
Activity Date Outreach or communication activity Our activity (see Table 1 for initials)
Conferences attended
[a]
10-11 Feb
2011,
5-6 Oct 2011
[b] 16 Mar 2011,
26 Mar 2012
VIP Project Workshops: Nordic Top Research on Adaptation of Arctic Communities to
the Climate Change. Workshop I in Helsinki 10-11 February 2011 and Workshop II in
Copenhagen 5-6 October 2011.
Polar Forum, Stockholm, Sweden.
Participation by TS (Workshop I) and
GK (Workshop II)
Participation by CH, MN, GK, ÅS, FF
(2011), MN (2012)
[c] 26 April 2011 The New Arctic workshop, Utrikespolitiska Institutet, Stockholm. Participation by ES, MN, GK
[d]
22-26 June
2011
“A framework for sustainable governance of Arctic natural resources” at ICASS VII, the
Seventh International Congress of Arctic Social Sciences, Akureyri, Iceland.
Presentation by MN and ES
[n]
[o]
[p]
13 March
2012
23 March
2012
27 March
2012
“Arctic Games” brown bag seminar at New Economic School, Moscow.
Telephone conference with environmental economists in Norway to explore
collaboration and co-funding possibilities (Henrik Lindhjem, Kristin Magnussen and
Ståle Navrud).
Mistra Arctic Futures in a Global Context Stakeholder Meeting at the Embassy of
Canada, Stockholm.
Presentation by SI
Participation by ÅS, SC, MN, LH, CH
Presentation by TS and Anne-Sophie
Crépin, The Beijer Institute (invited by
Arctic Games)
[q] Various Two project meetings for all team members in Stockholm (7-8 April 2011) and Lofoten (8-9 March 2012). Most team members
participated in the Annual Programme Meeting in Abisko 16-18 May 2011. TS has represented the project at Programme Meetings
in Stockholm (17 Feb 2011, 25 Oct 2011, 17 Feb 2012) and Umeå (12 Apr 2011). Further, MN participated in a workshop on 21
September 2011 at Østfoldforskning (Oslo, Norway) about the EDecIDE project work on trade-offs between different environmental
impacts or damages in connection with carbon capture and storage and the Arctic region.
PAGE 18 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 19

Other upcoming project activities
[r] Various The development of the contingent valuation study will involve follow-up contacts with the
stakeholder group gathered in Bodø on 7 March 2012 (see [m]). Further, a Reference Group
of stakeholders will be established, drawing from this stakeholder group. A meeting for the
Reference Group is planned for early 2013.
Stakeholders and selected
team members
[s] Various Meetings for all team members are planned for Autumn 2012 (video) and February 2013 (physical meeting). Team members will
also be present at the Annual Programme Meeting 2012 and the Hearing in May 2012.
TABLE 4 LINKING DELIVERABLES AND ACTIVITIES TO EXPECTED OUTCOMES FROM THE PROJECT PLAN
Expected outcome (as described in the Project Plan (#0 in Table 2)) Project deliverable (Table 2), or Project activity (Table 3)
An evaluation of the approach of working with a transdisciplinary framework to analyze and
assess governance options for sustainable use of natural resources in the Arctic.
An economic approach to assessing costs and benefits resulting from Arctic policymaking. The
approach includes economic effects from a changed provision of ecosystem services (ES).
All deliverables feed into this expected outcome, reported
in #10 and #12
#3, #8, #9, #10, #13, #15
References
AGP, 2010. Arctic Governance in an Era of Transformative Change: Critical Questions, Governance Principles,
Ways Forward. Report from the Arctic Governance Project, April 2010.
Boardman, A.E., Greenberg, D.H., Vining, A.R., Weimer, D.L., 2010. Cost-Benefit Analysis – concepts and
practice. Fourth edition. Pearson education, Inc., New Jersey.
Carson, R., R. Mitchell, M. Hanemann, R. Kopp, S. Presser, P. Ruud. 2003. Contingent Valuation and Lost Passive
Use: Damages from theExxon Valdez Oil Spill. Environmental and Resource Economics 25 No. 3: 257-286.
Durant, J. M., Hjermann, D.Ø., Sabarros, P. S. & Stenseth, N. C. 2008 Northeast Arctic Cod population
persistence in the Lofoten–Barents Sea system under fishing. Ecol. Appl. 18, 662–669. (doi:10.1890/07-0960.1).
Fabritius, M. K., Sandberg, A., 2012. Lofoten tourism futures; actors and strategies. UiN Report No. 3-2012.
University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway.
A theoretical analysis of incentives for, and interactions among, actors with interests in natural
resources in the Arctic region, and implications for sustainable governance options.
A substantially increased socio-economic knowledge base through scientific papers accomplished
through interdisciplinary and international cooperation in the project, as well as improved capacity
in Sweden to perform research regarding the Arctic (through the involvement of PhD students and
researchers in Swedish organizations).
The provision of new knowledge to decision makers and other involved actors regarding issues
analyzed in Arctic Games, and the development of a framework that will be available after the
project for further analyses regarding the sustainable use of natural resources in the Arctic.
Arctic Games will also provide general knowledge to the scientific community on how to use game
theory, cost-benefit analysis, economic valuation methods and governance tools for analyzing
problems involving strategic behaviour, natural resource scarcity in regions with open access, and
unclear property rights or diffuse governance structures.
6. Financial details
The Arctic Games budget of SEK 6.6 million covers a project period of
three years. Ninety-one percent of the budget is used for personnel
costs (see Table 1 for person-months) including overhead. The remaining
nine percent is used primarily for travel and data collection. A detailed
budget is available in the Project Plan (#0). The year 1 instalment
received from Mistra in March 2011 was SEK 1.975 million, of which SEK
1.875 million was consumed by 31 December 2011. The positive balance
of SEK 0.1 million is due to travel and data collection costs anticipated
for 2012-2013.
#4, #5, #7, #14
All academic reports and papers (#2-#10), cooperation
within the project and with researchers from other projects
(e.g. [j], [k], [o]), and PhD theses (#13 #14, #15)
All academic reports and papers (#2-#10), #12,
presentations (e.g. [g], [h]) stakeholder meetings ([p], [r])
All academic reports and papers (#2-#10), presentations at
conferences (e.g. [d], [i])
Gradinger, R., Hopcroft, R., and Bluhm, B. 2004. Arctic Census Diversity of Marine Life. Program proposal
to Census of Marine Life Project. Available online: www.coml.org/comlfiles/press/Arctic_CoML_public.pdf
(Accessed 9 April 2012).
Lebel, L., J. M. Anderies, B. Campbell, C. Folke, S. Hatfield-Dodds, T. P. Hughes. and J. Wilson, 2006.
Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society
11(1): 19.
NRC, National Research Council. 2004. Valuing Ecosystem Services: Toward Better Environmental Decisionmaking.
National Academies Press, Washington, DC.
Oppdatering av forvaltningsplanen for det marine miljø i Barentshavet og havområdene utenfor Lofoten.
Melding till Stortinget nr 10, 2010-2011.
Ostrom, E., 2005 Understanding Institutional Diversity. Princeton University Press, USA.
Ostrom, E., 2007. A diagnostic approach of going beyond panaceas. PNAS 104(39): 15181-15187.
Stokols, D. 2006. Towards a Science of Transdisciplinary Action Research. American Journal of Community
Psychology. Vol. 38, No. 1-2, 63-77.
TEEB, 2010. The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Ecological and Economic Foundations. Edited by
Pushpam Kumar. Earthscan, London
Young, O.R., 1998. Creating regimes: Arctic accords and international governance. Cornwell University Press.
USA.
PAGE 20 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 21

ASSESSING ARCTIC FUTURES
Voices, Resources and Governance
In the project Assessing Arctic Futures: Voices,
Resources and Governance, we are analyzing past
projections of the region’s future in order to better understand
the Arctic futures scenarios that are continuously
being produced today. This research is intended to reveal
processes through which certain – but not all – voices are
heard, and from those processes to derive tools that allow
us to listen more carefully and act more wisely.
CONTACT:
Sverker Sörlin, project leader, Divi sion of History of Science and
Technology, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm:
sorlin@kth.se
Nina Wormbs, co-leader, Divi sion of History of Science and
Technology, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm:
nina@kth.se
”The Arctic is hot,” Sweden’s Arctic Ambassador Gustaf Lind
recently observed. His comment referred not to the physical
climate, which has received so much attention, but to rapid
changes in the political climate. Until recently, the Arctic was
the prerogative of organizations interested in specific scientific
research projects, military-strategic control, or the direct
administration of northern citizens. As the Arctic has become
more firmly embedded within the global political-economic
system – and its residents perceived as active stakeholders
in decision-making – interest in its present and future has
spread rapidly among NGOs, associations of indigenous Arctic
peoples, international organizations like the EU and the UN,
and geographically distant states such as China, Korea, India,
and Malaysia. Expertise in the social sciences has consequently
become essential to understanding the present and future of the
Arctic.
Our research project is located at the core of this ongoing
change. We embrace the challenge to build the competencies
PAGE 22 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 23

that are needed in the humanities and the social sciences; a
process that gathers pace with every year. The International
Geophysical Year (1957/58) – often considered a landmark in
polar research – focused entirely on the natural sciences. But
during the 2007–2009 International Polar Year, some 30 percent
of the research, in addition to education and outreach, focused
on projects outside the “hard” sciences. The most recent triennial
congress of IASSA (the International Arctic Social Science
Association) was attended by several hundred scholars and
policymakers.
Sweden has long played an important role in natural-science
research in the Arctic, but its capacity in the social sciences
and humanities remains under-developed. The Swedish Polar
Committee gained its first non-natural-science member (Sverker
Sörlin, leader of the present project) as late as 1997. Our project
aims to build both new knowledge and new capacity, to foster
a new generation of scholars capable of effectively addressing
Arctic challenges of today and tomorrow, drawing from the
wealth of networks (both Swedish and international) emerging
in fields related to polar research in the social sciences and
humanities.
Project background
Our project grew out of a conviction that the present burst of
interest in the Arctic has produced a plethora of visions of the
future of the Arctic, without a corresponding level of critical
analysis. There is an urgent need to think about why and how
Arctic futures are generated, and how that process of producing
visions of the future is related to assumptions held in the present.
A reflexive, non-deterministic approach grounded in the social as
well as the natural sciences is essential to sound policymaking.
During its first year, this project has taken a distinct and
important place in the flourishing international ecosystem of
research in the polar social sciences, particularly the dynamic
research environment in Stockholm. During the International
Polar Year, KTH played prominent roles in: the project LASHIPA
(Large Scale Historical Industrial Exploitation of Polar Areas),
financed by the Swedish Research Council and other international
funding agencies, and supported by Swedish Polar Research
Secretariat; an International Polar year (IPY) project on the
geopolitics of polar field stations coordinated with Scott Polar
Research Institute at Cambridge University; the transdisciplinary
project Arctic Norden, financed by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond,
and; Models, Media and Arctic Climate Change, financed by
Formas. Members of the project played important roles in the
Polar Geopolitics seminar series funded by the Economic and
Social Research Council (UK) and the European Research Council
project The Earth under Surveillance: Geopolitics, Climate
Change, and the Cold War Legacy. The Arctic Resilience Report,
an Arctic Council project led by SEI and Stockholm Resilience
Centre, has commenced in parallel with this Mistra project.
Two books provide pertinent examples of the synergies
between the present project and its international counterparts:
When the Ice Breaks: Media, Science, and the Politics of Climate
Change (New York, 2012) is a case study of how past and present
projections of future sea ice retreat have been depicted in the
media and treated politically in the US, Canada, Russia, and
the Nordic countries. This book, conceived in the fall of 2010, is
edited by project participants Nina Wormbs and Annika E. Nilsson
with Miyase Christensen (KTH), and more than 75 percent of the
text is written by project participants.
Science, Geopolitics and Culture in the Polar Region – Norden
beyond Borders (London, 2012) presents seminal ideas on the
role of heritage, media, science, and institutions such as the
Arctic Council, NGOs, and native organizations in the debates
over Arctic pasts and futures. This book was edited by project
leader Sverker Sörlin, with over 50 percent of the text by project
participants.
Key insights
Our work thus far has produced three key insights, each of
which underpins our ongoing research. The first emerged
directly out of the project idea, as evidenced by the title
“Assessing Arctic Futures.” The plural is crucial. It is an insight
in its own right to realize that a future is both a commodity
and a political concept that different actors fight over. Studying
the competition between different attempts to gain hegemony
over the discourse of the future – an approach we present as
novel – is a central theme of our research. Careful study of
past attempts to construct futures for the Arctic de-naturalizes
persistent assumptions that underpin articulations of the future.
The second insight concerns the role of science as politics,
building on work by scholars such as Sheila Jasanoff and Susan
Owens. The conventional view that science is a neutral source
of data, that is then applied to produce better decision-making,
fails to fully capture the political impulses that shape scientific
activity. In all our periods of investigation (the early 20th
Century, the Cold War, Arctic regionalization during 1990–2000,
and the present re-territorialization), we consistently find
that science does not come before politics, but that politics
comes before science. Science and politics work together in the
construction of futures that are designed to serve as carriers
of national and other interests. From budgetary processes in
state capitals below the Arctic Circle all the way to high-latitude
field sites, science is stamped by social, political, and economic
priorities: concerns for hydrocarbon and mineral abundance,
fisheries and ecosystem health, sea ice thickness and extent, and
many more.
PAGE 24 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 25

Our final key insight so far concerns the status of climate
their utility are determined by their location within political
change as a political resource. Much current discussion about and economic networks rather than being a priori qualities.
the future of the Arctic presents climate change as a force with We relate both of these concepts to “governance,” i.e. the
the capacity to exclusively determine future action. The 1925 means through which power over people, places, and objects is
Svalbard Treaty, the 1994 United Nations Convention on the exercised (including but not limited to political structures such
Law of the Sea, the 1996 establishment of the Arctic Council, as the Arctic Council, or legal instruments such as UNCLOS).
and the 2008 Ilulissat Declaration can all be regarded as steps The strength of this framework is that it emphasizes human
in a gradual process of integrating Arctic spaces into existing agency; sea-ice retreat or global oil prices are recognized as
political and economic systems. These governance regimes have components of the futures articulated by actors rather than
naturalized the values that prevailed at particular historical forces against which politics is helpless.
moments and “filtered out” dissenting voices and visions of the Our approach derives inspiration from actor-network theory,
present and future Arctic, not least through their authority to a sociological framework that has proved highly stimulating for
define who constitutes a legitimate Arctic stakeholder. Focusing analyses of science and policymaking. There are also similarities
on the origins of this authority redirects attention toward the to the concept of “political ecology,” used in relation to the
political contexts in which climate change is articulated as a 1950s Alaska, which asserts that the political and economic
crucial issue for the future of the Arctic, recognizing that even landscape must be considered within the same context as
the most convincingly-argued scientific findings can only gain the physical geographical landscape when evaluating the
political authority through political processes.
relationship between resources and human populations. This
framework is developed in a stand-alone academic paper,
Scientific approach and general outcomes
The research team has prioritized the creation of a
methodological framework capable of structuring our future
output from the perspective of three interrelated categories
flagged in the project title: voices, resources, and governance.
Today’s visions, and the voices behind them, are analyzed
in relation to longer-term historical and geopolitical forces
– sometimes stretching back over a century – that have
shaped modern conceptions of the Arctic. The term “voices”
highlights the fact that it is actors (individual or institutional)
rather than monolithic “drivers” (such as climate change or
demand for hydrocarbons) that articulate visions, create and
uphold politics, and perform actions that shape the future of
the Arctic. Our conception of “resources” builds on the work
of geographers such as Gavin Bridge, who have argued that
resources are a constructed category; that is, their value and
1
The referenced material can be found in the Communication section of this report on page 64–65.
which is in the final stages of completion (Avango, Nilsson,
and Roberts) 1 . It has also already started to underpin other
research within the project (Depledge and Roberts; Avango
and Roberts). This approach also “de-privileges” the Arctic by
embedding it in existing discourses and geopolitical patterns.
Finally, our analyses de-construct the most prominent
narrative in current future visions of the Arctic – the idea that
a decrease in sea ice driven by the reinforced version of climate
change called “Arctic amplification” will almost by necessity
lead to an increase in shipping and exploitation of natural
resources in the region.There have already been several quests
for energy resources in the Arctic over the 20th century, and
none were predicated on a discourse of global warming and
melting sea ice. On the contrary, when there actually was a
considerable warming of the Arctic (between around 1920 to
1950), it was not connected to enhanced resource use. Indeed,
companies then articulated visions of the future in which they
TABLE 1. FIRST-YEAR PROJECT STAFFING
Researcher
Affiliation; discipline
Dag Avango KTH; industrial archaeology (PhD 2005)
Julia Lajus
European University at St. Petersburg; history of
science and environment (PhD 2004)
Annika E. Nilsson SEI; political science and governance (PhD 2007)
Peder Roberts
Strasbourg; history of science and historical
geography (PhD 2010)
Sverker Sörlin
KTH; history of science and environment, and
research policy (PhD 1988)
Nina Wormbs KTH; history of technology and media (PhD 2003)
Ekaterina Kalemeneva European University at St Petersburg; history
Eric Paglia
KTH; environmental history
Andrian Vlakhov European University at St Petersburg; anthropology
TABLE 2. ANTICIPATED ADDITIONS TO STAFF – 2012
Researcher
Affiliation
Sabine Höhler KTH; science and technology studies (PhD 1999)
Patrik Lantto
University of Umeå; Centre for Sami Research
(PhD 2000)
Paul Warde UEA & Cambridge; history (PhD 2002)
Lize-Marie van der
Watt
University of Stellenbosch; history (PhD 2011)
would successfully domesticate the Arctic through sciencebased
industrial technology, turning the ice into a challenge
that could reveal expert ability (Avango and Högselius, in
press).
Competence building and staffing
The original staffing of this project reflected a wish to meet
the Mistra call for building competence, and combines
members with extensive experience in political, historical, and
archaeological studies of the Arctic with scholars who are able
to bring expertise in cognate areas to the research programme.
This blend of competences has successfully enhanced the
group’s capacity to produce new conceptual tools, rather than
merely uncover new data.
The project application was written by a team of six
scholars, all of whom have worked in the project during the
first year. Four members of this team have long histories of
Arctic engagement, while two are relatively new to Arctic
research. The cluster of experienced Arctic scholars at KTH
has provided a vital home for our research. We are building
further collaborations in Stockholm with the Defence University
College, the Stockholm Environment Institute, and the
Stockholm Resilience Centre, and internationally by building a
research group in St. Petersburg and through our multifaceted
cross-breeding with other projects. So far, we have three PhD
students on our team. As new graduate students are hired at
KTH in the coming years, this number is likely to grow.
We also build competence by bringing new Arctic expertise
to Stockholm. Roberts will move to Stockholm in 2012 for
what promises to be a multi-year stay. We will have another
postdoctoral scholar, and additional mid-career scholars from
Sweden and the UK. By the end of 2013 we will have produced
one PhD, one post doc, and established several mid-career and
senior Arctic scholars in the Swedish humanities and socialscience
research communities.
Conference and workshop participation, project
and programme working mode
Project members have participated in a range of conferences,
workshops, and seminars (see the full list under Communication
on page 64–65. Key events include the Seventh International
Congress of Arctic Social Sciences meeting in Akureyri (June
2011), where we presented the methodological approach for
the project as well as results from ongoing research within
individual work packages. Five project members participated in
the IPY “From Knowledge to Action” conference in Montreal
2012. We have also travelled to core conferences in our
respective disciplines, including environmental history, the
history of science, governance and area studies, bringing the
project and its approach to a wider audience.
PAGE 26 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 27

Apart from regular smaller meetings, the project has arranged
workshops in Stockholm, St. Petersburg and Strasbourg
(relocated to Stockholm due to an Air France strike). We will
continue and intensify this work mode during 2012 and 2013,
aided by the relocation of Roberts to Stockholm and the arrival
of visiting researchers. We have also convened joint meetings
with other research groups with similar interests, notably
“Exploring Greenland” (based at the University of Århus,
Denmark) and “The Earth under Surveillance” (based at the
University of Manchester, the University of Strasbourg, and the
Autonomous University of Barcelona). Project members have also
initiated the “Stockholm Arctic Seminars,” which commenced in
March 2012.
Stakeholder interaction and network building
As part of the project, we are bringing the 2012 Calotte Academy
to Sweden. The Calotte Academy is an ongoing forum dedicated
to analyzing development relevant to the North through
dialogue between researchers and policymakers interested
in this region. The Academy has been part of the Northern
Research Forum since 2002. The engagement is a long-term
investment in establishing contacts with relevant local and
regional stakeholders. Our strong engagement with the Academy
links our project to a recently established thematic network
on geopolitics and security that is jointly run by the Northern
Research Forum and the University of the Arctic.
The Arctic Resilience Report is a new Arctic Council project
led by Annika E. Nilsson. The project focuses on identifying the
potential for shocks and large shifts in ecosystems services that
affect human well-being in the Arctic, and evaluating strategies
for adaptation and transformation in the face of rapid change.
The project has been developed in close collaboration with
the Swedish chairmanship of the Arctic Council, especially the
Swedish Ministry of the Environment.
We have laid solid foundations for expanding the educational
aspects of our outreach goals, with excellent prospects for
continued benefit should support be available beyond 2013.
One concrete outcome has already been achieved: the course
PAGE 28 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 29

“Environment and Society in a Changing Arctic,” developed
by Dag Avango. The course is part of a larger cooperation
between KTH and the University of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign),
a university with strengths in both historical studies of northern
regions and climate science. The course will include both
classroom and fieldwork components.
Efforts in the project to increase Arctic research competence
have also improved our ability to meet the demands of the
media, by answering questions on the changing Arctic. Perhaps
more importantly, several of the project participants are in
high demand for providing policy advice to public agencies and
organizations. In March 2012, Sörlin and Nilsson were called to
join the Swedish Government’s Environmental Science Board
(with a total membership of twelve).
We are planning a conference for May 2013 focusing on the
links between voices and Arctic futures, aimed specifically at
bringing the project participants together with stakeholders,
including policymakers. The conference is intended to produce
critical discussion and reflection upon current Arctic affairs
and the usefulness to stakeholders of enhanced awareness of
the discursive power of Arctic futures and their own abilities
to influence agendas and demand better and more-relevant
assessments. Through this and other channels (the Stockholm
Arctic Seminars, anticipated appearances in the press and other
media, and our ongoing policy advice), we are bringing some
of our insights and methodological approaches directly to
bear on a policy discussion that we hope can cross boundaries
between industry, science, indigenous and local communities, and
government.
Reflections on the future orientation of
the programme
With five projects, the Arctic Futures programme covers a
broad swath of intellectual territory. It is thus experimental
and, understandably, short. A longer-term research effort
undertaken with the central aim of building Swedish socialscience
and humanities research capacity should be reconceptualized
and focused upon fewer areas, capitalizing
upon strengths. One way to successfully utilize strengths is
to obtain long-term commitments from relevant universities
and institutes as programme/project owners. This can be
demonstrated through willingness to offer courses, positions,
and resources to provide career opportunities. Unlike most
other Arctic states, Sweden has never in earnest backed a
designated Arctic or polar programme: there has been no
Swedish analogy to the National Science Foundation’s Office
of Polar Programs, the Norwegian Polar Institute, or the
Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in St. Petersburg. This
has restricted opportunities for young scholars and hindered
attempts to consolidate capacity in the country. A long-term
Mistra programme would be an invaluable opportunity
to break with this tradition, providing the resources and
motivation to establish Swedish social-science and humanities
capacity to perform Arctic research, through a carefully-chosen
set of capable and committed host institutions, possibly
working in collaboration.
KTH – in collaboration with partners at the Foreign Policy
Institute (UI) and the Defence University College (FHS, where
we currently have one joint young scholar) and the Stockholm
Environment Institute (SEI, where we have a mid-career
scholar) and the Stockholm Resilience Centre (SRC, where we
are also affiliated) – would be interested in taking on the
long-term responsibility for a continued programme. A chief
component of our approach is the historical dimension, but
as illustrated above it is history that is deeply integrated with
a range of other social sciences and humanities disciplines,
and closely related to contemporary issues related to local
communities, environment, security, and the natural sciences.
In the medium term we anticipate strong results from an
integrated multi-disciplinary environment with its core in
historical studies, building on the fact that scholars in the
Division of History of Science, Technology, and Environment
at KTH already have backgrounds in a range of fields, from
physics to literature, industrial archaeology, architecture,
media studies, and of course various strands of history. This
scholarly environment has great potential for furthering
the aims of the current programme and building upon its
outcomes, while also contributing to the study of other
important problems that can benefit from an integrated
research approach – not least the questions of global
governance and sustainable development in a century likely to
be marked by anthropogenic climate change.
Expected outcomes at the end of the project
This project has already begun to generate a set of conceptual
tools that advance knowledge in the social sciences and
humanities while providing direct policy benefits. Our
insights and methodological approaches will foster a deeper
understanding of the past, present, and future of the Arctic.
Core questions (such as Who is or should be a stakeholder
in the Arctic Which values are inscribed upon governance
structures How is knowledge from the natural sciences
integrated in political systems) are being highlighted, in
order to democratize decision-making. We have begun to
communicate our findings through publications, conferences,
workshops, and direct consultations with policymakers. We
have organized a collaborative university-level course, and
built strong connections with related projects across the Arctic
social sciences. The 2013 stakeholder conference, the planned
series of edited volumes, and the ongoing series of meetings
(including the Calotte Academy and the Stockholm Arctic
Seminars) will provide discrete activities that will further focus
our research and dissemination efforts.
We see strong opportunities to build on this work beyond
2013, by expanding and institutionalizing the relationship
between KTH and SEI/SRC and building on existing crossinstitutional
connections. Annual courses at both the
undergraduate and graduate levels will further build scholarly
capacity, particularly now that the Division of History of
Science, Technology, and Environment at KTH has won a major
donation to support our research agenda and promote our
teaching of students in the natural sciences and engineering.
This provides a unique opportunity to run interdisciplinary
courses integrating the past, present, and future of the Arctic,
capitalizing upon the existing teaching expertise at KTH and
the experience gained through the forthcoming course run
by Avango. The existence of a thriving pedagogical element
will maintain a level of institutional dynamism that will in
turn stimulate an ongoing programme of Arctic seminars and
workshops.
KTH – embedding a social-science and humanities Arctic
programme in the country’s largest institute of technology –
will be in a strong position to reach out to important industrial
and societal interests and partner with other institutions on
major research projects, especially as all project members have
extensive experience with international projects and proven
funding records. One such international research project
involves a detailed study of the continued function of Cold-War
science and technology in the 21st-century Arctic, combining
perspectives from political geography, environmental history,
and science and technology studies. This work builds on the
considerable experience of members of our research team in
related projects (notably the European Research Council project
“The Earth under Surveillance”) and their strong international
connections, which provide both research and funding
possibilities in Russia and the United States (notably through
the National Science Foundation). Prospects for significant
international support – intellectual and financial – are strong.
Finally, Sörlin, Nilsson, Avango, and Wormbs have
experience with bringing academic research into the
governance discourse; an aspect that will remain central in
all future research. We expect the ultimate outcome of an
ongoing investment in Arctic knowledge production to be
more informed policymaking and a greater capacity for active
Swedish engagement with the Arctic region. In concrete terms,
we hope to see our conceptual and methodological innovations
put to use in the ever-growing number of assessments of the
Arctic and its future. The realization of desirable futures is
contingent upon sound assessments and wise decision-making
in the present.
PAGE 30 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 31

ARCTIC FUTURES
Managing Competition and Promoting Cooperation
Arctic Futures is a project dedicated to research into
the security and international politics of the Arctic.
As changes in the region bring new opportunities and
challenges, SIPRI aims to produce knowledge beneficial
to the continued peaceful and cooperative development
of the Arctic.
CONTACT:
info-arctic@sipri.org
Neil Melvin, project leader, Stockholm International Peace
Research Institute:
melvin@sipri.org
The Arctic is emerging as a distinct sub-region in an increasingly
globalised world. Improving access to the Arctic is presenting new
challenges and opportunities for the people and nation states of
the Arctic region, and to the broader international community.
As never before, the Arctic has become part of a complex set of
political and economic dynamics linking actors within and outside
the region.
At the heart of these processes are local, national, regional
and international claims regarding identity, stewardship and
sovereignty in respect to the territories and resources of the
region. If the opening of the Arctic is to be stable and peaceful
over the long term, it will be critical to fashion political and
security arrangements capable of managing the Arctic’s
transformation and integrating the various claims on the region
in a cooperative fashion.
The SIPRI project Arctic Futures: Managing Competition and
Promoting Cooperation is designed to examine the challenges
emerging around these issues. A key set of questions is at the
PAGE 32 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 33

core of the project. How are the multi-level interactions of
sub-state actors, states and multilateral organisations shaping
political and security order in the Arctic What are the domestic
and international interests and actors that drive the policies
of Arctic states towards the region and how are their agendas
evolving How might the interests of Arctic and non-Arctic
communities and states – the so-called Arctic ‘insiders’ and
‘outsiders’ – be integrated What implications does the opening
of the Arctic have for existing regional governance and security
frameworks, notably those in Europe
In addressing these questions, researchers involved in the SIPRI
project will produce a variety of publications designed to provide
information and analysis on contemporary developments in the
Arctic. We also seek to engage policymakers, the media and
experts in discussions regarding Arctic political and security issues,
with a view to building confidence and sharing knowledge.
The aim of this work is to identify practical steps to reduce risks,
misunderstandings and suspicions during a time of change in the
region, and to promote cooperation relating to the Arctic.
To achieve the main project goals, the research team is
utilizing SIPRI’s unique international networks, extending
through Europe and North America to Northeast Asia, as well as
building new contacts and networks. For work in Northeast Asia,
the SIPRI permanent presence in Beijing, China, is playing a key
role. The SIPRI presence in Washington, DC, will be engaged in
future North-American aspects of the Arctic project.
OUTCOMES AND RESULTS
During the initial phase of the SIPRI project Arctic Futures:
Managing Competition and Promoting Cooperation, the
research team has made significant contributions in five
principal areas:
1. Developing a new way to theorise the emerging international
politics of the Arctic;
2. Fashioning new expert and policy networks devoted to the
Arctic and strengthening existing ones;
3. Collecting new data;
4. Building Arctic expert research capacity in Sweden;
5. Organising and participating in conferences to present new
perspectives, data and theories on the international and
security politics of the Arctic.
Theorising Arctic relations
To date, most of the work on the international politics of the
Arctic has sought to understand developments in the region as
the outcome of the various policies of different Arctic nation
states. An original aspect of the SIPRI approach has been to
develop a comparative framework for understanding relations
in the Arctic, bringing in both the domestic and global levels.
In the early phase of the project, a particular focus has
been upon identifying domestic sources of Arctic policy in the
various countries currently engaged with the region. Employing
Robert Putnam’s idea of the ‘two-level game’ and drawing
upon constructivist elements regarding the concept of ‘problem
framing’ has allowed for a multi-level understanding of Arctic
policymaking, with both top-down and bottom-up perspectives.
In this approach, the state is not viewed as a unitary actor
deploying evident national interests, but, rather, as containing
various agents. Arctic policy is viewed as the product of
domestic politics.
At the same time, global processes and actors are increasingly
shaping developments in the Arctic. The SIPRI project has thus
sought to situate the policies of Arctic states – derived from
domestic interests and ideas – in the context of emerging
relations with non-Arctic countries (and their domestic
processes), such as those of North-East Asia and the European
Union, and the processes of international change.
A particular focus of initial project work has been on
mapping and explaining the emergence of a ‘spirit of
cooperation’ around Arctic issues. Research has pointed to a
shared interest by Arctic states in asserting their joint exclusive
sovereignty over Arctic territories and determining the rules of
the game for the future exploitation of the region. Increased
global interest in the region lies at the heart of this interest
in regional cooperation. This finding has led to further
questions regarding the durability of multilateral
cooperation in the Arctic once sovereignty
claims have been established.
New international expert and
policy community networks
There has been important growth
in recent years in the international
epistemic community engaged
in Arctic issues. The SIPRI project
has sought to connect with, and
to strengthen networks between
diverse parts of, this community.
Additionally, the SIPRI project has
uniquely worked to forge new
networks, including with experts
and policymakers in non-Arctic states
such as China and Northeast Asia and
the European Union. Not only do these
new networks include academic institutions
and think tanks, but also policymakers and
other stakeholders. Establishing links to these networks has
enhanced access and research opportunities, and has also
provided a means for a far wider dissemination of, and a
higher impact for, research findings and publications.
Data collection
SIPRI has been engaged in gathering qualitative data through
interviews in a range of countries 1 . SIPRI researchers have met
with representatives of ministries, industry, the military, think
tanks, and universities. The project has also employed traditional
SIPRI data-gathering methods, which rely on open sources,
for instance in calculating the amount of military hardware
procured for use in the Arctic.
1
An index of interviews is published on the project’s webpage: www.arcticfutures.se/page_id=70
Building capacity and knowledge in
sweden and beyond
Knowledge of security and political issues in the Arctic has
been limited in Sweden. With the notable exception of FOI,
few, if any Swedish institutions have looked at the role of
security and international diplomacy in the Arctic as a whole.
As a result, Sweden has produced few experts and generated
little knowledge on this aspect of Arctic science. This capacity
gap has meant that Sweden has not been well represented in
international research projects and expert debates regarding
Arctic security, for example the important multi-national
research project Geopolitics of the High North initiated several
years ago.
PAGE 34 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 35

In the brief period that the SIPRI Arctic project has been
operational, it has become one of the go-to-places in Sweden,
and internationally, when it comes to issues of security in
the Arctic region. Building on SIPRI’s excellent reputation
and extensive networks, the project has quickly become an
established resource for knowledge on Arctic security.
The truly multinational Arctic team at SIPRI, currently
representing five nationalities (including a young Swedish
researcher), has also contributed to a broader understanding of
Arctic security issues than would have been possible with a more
homogenous group. Perspectives from several relevant regions,
together with language skills covering almost the entire Arctic
and well beyond, allows for a global perspective on Arctic
issues, something that is becoming increasingly important.
Conferences and panels
The New Arctic: Building Cooperation in the Face of
Emerging Challenges
The conference “The New Arctic: Building Cooperation in
the Face of Emerging Challenges,” organised in Stockholm in
cooperation with Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI)
in April 2011, marked the onset of the Swedish Chairmanship
of the Arctic Council and the launch of the SIPRI Arctic project.
The conference opened with a statement by Sweden’s senior
Arctic official. Diplomats and other government officials,
as well as experts from various Arctic countries, provided
further presentations. The conference offered an opportunity
to reflect on the key political and security issues facing the
Arctic region and the role of the Arctic Council in addressing
these challenges. The conference was attended by close to
one hundred participants. A final conference report ‘The
New Arctic: Building Cooperation in the Face of Emerging
Challenges’ was later released (details in the Communications
section on page 64–65).
Comparing Arctic Strategies: The Sources of National Policies
for the High North
The April 2012 International Studies Association (ISA)
conference held in April 2012 in San Diego (USA) provided the
opportunity for the SIPRI team to present some of their initial
research findings. SIPRI organised a panel at the conference
that brought together presentations by Neil Melvin and
Ekaterina Klimenko, Kristofer Bergh, and Linda Jakobson,
together with other leading international experts. The panel
was designed to explore new perspectives on understanding
international security and political relations issues relevant in
the Arctic, and some thirty researchers in the fields of social
and political science attended.
It was noted that, to date, much of the work on
emerging international dynamics in the Arctic has focused
on geopolitical or ‘liberal institutionalist’ accounts of the
behaviour of the various actors. Resource opportunities are
seen to be driving increased interest, for example, while
shared norms about the special character of the region are
promoting cooperation, notably through the development of
the Arctic Council as a multilateral forum.
The panel aimed to introduce a further dimension to
understanding Arctic engagements, through a comparative
examination of the national processes of interest and policy
construction focused on the Arctic. The focus of the papers was
upon the ways in which the national approaches to the Arctic
from North America, Norway, China, and Russia have emerged
in recent years as a result of interactions between actors from
different nations representing different interests and ideas.
The panel helped to further the work being undertaken
at SIPRI to develop a framework for comparing national
dynamics with a view to better understanding the nature and
trajectories of interstate interactions on Arctic issues.
The research presented at the conference will form the basis
for a series of academic articles to be published later.
Conflict and Cooperation in the New Arctic
This symposium held in April 2012 was part of a SIPRI and
University of Southern California (USC) collaboration aimed
to prepare a group of USC students for their May 2012 visit to
Sweden, Finland and Russia to conduct field studies on Arctic
politics. Neil Melvin presented on “Energy and Environmental
Security: Russia and the EU” and Kristofer Bergh presented
on “Regional Cooperation and the Arctic Council.” Around 30
students, UCS faculty and specially-invited guests attended the
symposium.
Chinese and Nordic Perspectives on Arctic Developments
On May 10th SIPRI, together with the China Center for
Contemporary World Studies (an influential foreign-affairs thinktank
affiliated with the Central Committee of the Community
Party of China), convened a one-day workshop in Beijing devoted
to Nordic and Chinese cooperation in the Arctic. This was the
first occasion where an official Chinese institution cooperated to
discuss international relations in the Arctic region. The workshop
provided a unique opportunity, bringing together leading
Chinese and Nordic officials to share knowledge and ideas, as
well as an exercise in second-track diplomacy and confidence
building. Ambassador von Uexkull of Sweden provided a keynote
presentation and several Nordic ambasadors were present.
Officials and leading researchers represented China. Arctic
experts from all of the Nordic countries participated.
Sweden and the International Politics of the New Arctic
In November 2012, SIPRI will convene a one-day conference
in Stockholm designed to bring together Swedish experts to
explore the international security and politics of the Arctic. The
conference will provide a venue for post-graduate and junior
scholars in particular to present their work on Arctic issues. The
event will take place at SIPRI.
Several further conferences and panels on Arctic issues are
planned for 2012, including in Wroclaw (Poland), at the American
PAGE 36 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 37

Political Science Association conference in New Orleans (USA),
and at the Institute of International Affairs/Centre for Small State
Studies at the University of Iceland, Reykjavik.
OUTREACH
The SIPRI Arctic project works closely with the SIPRI
communications department to achieve maximum exposure
for our output. A dedicated part of the SIPRI website has been
established for the Arctic project in the English and Mandarin
languages: www.sipri.org/research/security/arctic. Releases of
new material and publications of articles and op-eds [opposite
the editorial page] are timed to coincide with Arctic events in
order to increase visibility and reach larger audiences. SIPRI Arctic
research has recently been picked up by major international news
outlets, inter alia the Washington Post, Aftonbladet, Moscow
News and Le Devoir. For a detailed list of publications and
presentations, see the Communications section on page 64–65.
Networks and international collaboration
Since the start of the SIPRI Arctic project, efforts have been
made to strengthen SIPRI’s international network on Arctic
issues. Partnerships and joint projects and events are being
developed, or are already planned, with a broad range of
actors. Initial cooperation has resulted in over €50,000 of
additional research funding on Arctic issues for SIPRI during
the first year of the Mistra project. In addition to the ones
mentioned above, recent and ongoing collaborations include:
Northeast Asian countries (China, Japan and Korea) in Arctic
issues. The report will be presented in the Fall of 2012.
Future cooperation and joint projects are also being planned
together with several organizations and universities including
the University of Reykjavik, Iceland, the University of Lower
Silesia, Poland, The Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies and
the Norwegian Institute for Foreign Affairs in Norway.
Stakeholder engagement
Part of SIPRI’s mandate is to inform and engage policy makers.
Targeting the Arctic policy community has been a particular
aim of the Arctic project over the past year. Senior Swedish
Arctic officials have figured prominently in SIPRI events. The
Beijing conference in May 2012 SIPRI provided the opportunity
for Nordic and Chinese officials to meet and interact in
informal circumstances, a concrete way of facilitating
diplomacy between the Nordic countries and an important
emerging Arctic player. SIPRI has also met with representatives
of the local diplomatic community in Stockholm and with
ministries for foreign affairs abroad, notably in the Russian
Federation. In 2012, SIPRI is conducting a project on behalf
of the Danish MFA designed to build contacts with the Arctic
policy communities in China, Japan and South Korea.
AGENDA FOR FURTHER RESEARCH
The initial research conducted within the SIPRI Arctic project has
already identified a number of key areas for future research:
University of Southern California, USA
Besides the already mentioned symposium, SIPRI also hosted a
group of students from USC, coming to Stockholm to do field
research on the Arctic in May 2012. Further cooperation is
planned.
Danish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Denmark
SIPRI has been commissioned by the Danish Ministry of Foreign
Affairs to prepare a report on the involvement and interests of
Regional integration and the vertical integration of the Arctic
into different regional contexts
As result of the impacts of climate change, the notion of a
distinct integrated Arctic region has experienced a renaissance
in recent years. Historically, however, there have been differing
concepts of the Arctic stretching from the times of the great
explorers, through the militarization of the Cold War, and up to
the region’s relative obscurity for much of the post-Cold-War era.
Today a ‘spirit of cooperation’ amongst the Arctic nation states
PAGE 38 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 39

characterises the international politics of the region. Beneath
this cooperation, however, there is a growing national dimension
of Arctic policy tied to issues of identity, sovereignty and the
future exploitation of resources. This suggests that the regional
cohesion of the Arctic may be subject to future fragmentation.
While the Arctic Council is coming in to its own as a sub-regional
organization, the Arctic is far from the form and level of
integration of, for example, the European Union, where shared
norms and even shared sovereignty is the basis for a stable and
peaceful cooperation over time. Is such integration possible for
the Arctic And does it make sense for the states in the region to
cooperate on issues beyond those that are unique to the Arctic
Is the cooperation that we are witnessing in the region the result
of short-term strategic interests shared by the littoral Arctic
states or is it something more permanent that may survive after
the process of maritime boundary delimitation is over
At the same time that regional integration is being pursued
by the Arctic states, other actors are seeking to integrate the
Arctic into broader regional and international contexts. The
EU is keen to assert its presence in the Arctic and to link the
Arctic to a broader European space. Smaller sub-regional
formations, for example the Baltic region, are exploring how
they will relate to the Arctic. Global actors such as China and
India have proposed that the Arctic should be seen as a part
of the international community and a global resource. As the
Arctic geography continues to open, a key issue will be how the
Arctic as a political region will be defined and which actors will
play a leading role in shaping that definition. Future research
will be required to examine the various, and often competing,
conceptions of the boundaries of the Arctic region and how
the Arctic is to be integrated into the wider international
community.
Domestic Politics and Arctic Foreign Policy
Foreign policy is not created in a vacuum isolated from domestic
politics. The policies of Arctic states reflect the constellation
of domestic interests, as much as being a response to actual
challenges posed by changes in the Arctic region. Attempting
to take the interests of a variety of domestic actors into
account calls attention to important dynamics and processes
that might otherwise be overlooked. The often diametricallydifferent
internal situations in the Arctic countries explain, to a
significant degree, the differences in Arctic policies. This is also
true for non-Arctic states with a perceived interest in the Arctic,
including the highly complex and opaque domestic politics of
China.
Looking ahead, to understand the evolving approaches to
the Arctic of various Arctic ‘insider’ and ‘outsider’ nations will
involve a detailed mapping of the domestic sources of foreign
and security policy and how these interests are developing as
the Arctic changes. Understanding better the complex internal
dynamics driving Arctic policy will also be necessary for building
successful cooperation in the region in the future.
The Arctic as a Region for the Projection of Global
Power Relations
Though one of the most remote and inaccessible regions
of the world, the Arctic is not immune to the pressures of
globalization. This is manifested as Arctic communities face new
challenges, but also politically as the region becomes integrated
into the geopolitics of global power relations. The rise of new
large consumer markets, notably in China and India, is shifting
the dynamics of economic power and driving a transformation
of military and security affairs. All of these developments have
implications for the Arctic region.
A decision made on maritime delimitation in the Arctic can
influence developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The Arctic can
become part of wider bilateral relations, such as the difficult
relationship between Norway and China over the award of the
Nobel Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident, which has recently
become linked to Norway’s position on China’s application for
permanent observer status in the Arctic Council. The future
development of Arctic resources and transportation could have
far-reaching impacts on economies and societies in Asia and
Africa. Identifying the ways in which the Arctic is linked to the
wider emerging international political economy is a priority
issue for understanding the fast-changing nature of global
order.
PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION
Project Leadership
• Dr. Neil Melvin: 25% of time working on the Arctic project since April
2011. Melvin has extensive experience both as a researcher and as a policy
practitioner. Prior to joining SIPRI he held Senior Adviser positions in the
Energy Charter Secretariat and the Organization for Security and Co-operation
in Europe. He has also worked at a variety of leading policy institutes in
Europe. Melvin has published widely on issues of conflict, with a particular
focus on ethno-religious issues. In recent years he has broadened his research
interests to consider the impact of resources on conflict, notably the issue
of energy and conflict. Melvin joined SIPRI as Director of the Programme on
Armed Conflict and Conflict Management in May 2010.
• Dr. Linda Jakobson: 10% of time working on the Arctic project since April
2011. Jakobson is the East Asia Program Director at the Lowy Institute for
International Policy in Sydney. Jakobson has lived and worked in China for
close to 20 years and published six books on Chinese and East Asian society.
A Mandarin speaker, she has published extensively on China’s foreign policy,
the Taiwan Straits, China’s energy security, and climate change and science,
technology polices and China’s Arctic policies. Prior to joining Lowy, Jakobson
served as Director of the China and Global Security Programme and Senior
Researcher at SIPRI.
Building a Security Architecture for the Arctic Region
The current political climate in the Arctic is one of cooperation
rather than competition or even conflict. In the long term,
however, one cannot disregard the risks of a rise in interstate
tension due to the environmental, social and economic changes
that are taking place in the region. Will the willingness of
Arctic states to cooperate change as maritime borders become
delineated under the UNCLOS framework Will the military
build-up that is underway in the region, although limited, lead
to misunderstandings and suspicion
The Arctic region is currently largely outside existing security
frameworks. Four of the five littoral states are NATO members,
but an enhanced NATO presence is not welcomed by Russia,
or even Canada. As attention to the Arctic grows, so does the
number of initiatives to address the security issue. These include
Research Staff
• Kristofer Bergh: Bergh has been employed full time on the Arctic project
since April 2011. Bergh is a researcher with the SIPRI Armed Conflict and
Conflict Management Programme. He joined SIPRI as an intern in January
2009 and has since worked on several projects.
• Ekaterina Klimenko: Klimenko has been employed full time on the Arctic
project since September 2011. Klimenko is a recent graduate from the
University of Geneva, where she submitted a research thesis on the issue
of regional security complexes. She has previously worked as a Research
and Training Assistant in the OSCE Academy in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, and
has been an Intern at the OSCE Secretariat.
• Jingchao Peng: Peng works part time on the Arctic project as the Beijingbased
Research Assistant for SIPRI China and Global Security Programme.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree from the University of International Relations
in Beijing. His key areas of interest are China’s foreign policy and China
and the High North.
stepping up military–to–military contacts, efforts to build
political contacts at the defence-minister level, and proposing
the creation of a new security architecture for the Arctic region.
The Arctic Council is, however, limited in its mandate to discuss
issues of hard security; security discussions today are comprised
of a patchwork of bi- and multilateral efforts, none of them
employing a holistic Arctic perspective.
With political relations in the Arctic region currently broadly
positive, there is a unique opportunity to design and build
mechanisms and interfaces to promote security confidence in
the region that can anticipate and reduce future tensions. In
developing this research agenda, SIPRI will seek to draw on its
extensive experience from similar exercises in Europe, Central
Asia and the Korean Peninsula.
PAGE 40 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 41

PREPARING FOR AND RESPONDING
TO DISTURBANCE
Arctic lessons for Sweden
Researchers engaged in the project Preparing for
and responding to disturbance: Arctic lessons for
Sweden are analyzing the development of policy and
crisis preparedness on issues that are expected to become
increasingly important as a result of climate change
and/or increasing globalization in northern areas. How
do different northern countries respond to forest pest
outbreaks and storms How can the forest industry deal
with economic crises And how do municipalities respond
to increased risk of flooding Through comparative
studies in Sweden, Finland and Canada, our researchers
aim to draw lessons that will help Sweden to improve its
preparedness for impending changes in the Arctic.
CONTACT:
Carina Keskitalo, Department of Geography and Economic
History, Umeå University, project leader:
carina.keskitalo@geography.umu.se
Introduction
Researchers in the project “Preparing for and responding to
disturbance: Arctic lessons for Sweden” are reviewing selected
environmental and economic stresses in Sweden, Finland and
Canada. The aim of this work is to draw lessons for Sweden on
how to cope with or adapt to increasing risk in these areas due
to globalization and climate change, in particular in relation
to Sweden’s largely forest-covered rural north. Four stresses
and related themes are reviewed: 1) economic restructuring
in forest use; 2) impacts of storms on forest use; 3) impacts of
pest outbreaks on forest use, and; 4) municipal/local responses
to flooding. Activities are underway in all four focal areas,
in line with the plans described in the research proposal. It is
expected that the work as a whole will contribute to improving
understanding of how to deal with external disturbance in
the form of economic and environmental stresses (the latter
in particular with regard to extreme events), and thereby
contribute to adaptation literature and possibilities to draw
policy lessons for Sweden. Comparative articles, and in one case
a comparative design developed within an international edited
PAGE 42 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 43

ook publication, are well under way. Primary authorship of
the various articles has been distributed across the project team
(Swedish, Canadian and Finnish participants).
This project is the result of long-term international
collaboration between the three host centres: Umeå
University, Sweden, the University of Lapland, Finland, and
the University of Saskatchewan, Canada. The project is led
and managed by Carina Keskitalo (Umeå University), with
Monica Tennberg (University of Lapland) and Maureen Reed
(University of Saskatchewan) as the lead partners. Previous
areas of collaboration between these researchers include the
International Polar Year (IPY) project CAVIAR (Keskitalo and
Tennberg) and Mistra Future Forests (Keskitalo and Reed). The
project provides a further arena for continued international
as well as domestic research collaboration, drawing on the
established research traditions (both individual and collective)
described below.
Carina Keskitalo organised a kick-off meeting in Umeå
(January 2011) and a second meeting in Umeå (September
2011), and has planned the workload for the project in general.
The next project meeting, held in May 2011, focused primarily
on reviewing progress on the chapters for an international
edited book publication to be published with Edward Elgar in
2013 (see Theme 4, below).
Main research themes
An overview assessment of impacts of economic crises, pests
and storms on forestry in Sweden, Finland and Canada was
developed as a baseline for the project, drawing upon – and
for the first time comparing – existing studies. 2 Utilising an
adaptive capacity framework, the researchers show that access
to economic assets has been particularly important for adapting
to economic disturbances, but is linked to institutional processes
and governance arrangements. This is emphasized particularly
in the Canadian case.
The study showed that institutional and governance
arrangements played a larger role in adapting to natural
disturbances (abiotic and biotic) in the case study areas. For
example, both within the Canadian federal context and for
Sweden within the EU context, the effective mobilization
and deployment of assets through multi-level governance
arrangements required for developing management and
monitoring plans on issues as complex as invasive alien species
is particularly challenging. The results of our assessment suggest
that institutional development and foresight planning, as well
as development of information and skills (on the part of the
state (in Sweden) or province as well as at the federal level
(in Canada)), could potentially play a larger role than they do
at present in developing responses to climate change risks. In
particular, there is a need to move beyond event-based, and to
some extent reactive, policy development, towards proactive
integration of adaptation measures in forest management
practice.
Theme 1: Economic restructuring in forest use
Under this theme, the research team is studying economic
restructuring in forest use in response to economic crisis. 3,4
A common theoretical framework focused on framing and
methodological design has been developed. Semi-structured
interviews are underway in Sweden and Finland to complement
work undertaken in Canada.
Theme 2: Impacts of storms on forest use
The overview article completed early on in the project provided
evidence that a survey of storms was less relevant for large parts
of Canada. A comparative article “Political economy of storms:
Finnish and Swedish lessons for the Arctic” 5 on the impact of
recent winter storms in Sweden and Finland is underway. The
theoretical basis for this work (on governmentality) has been
established, and methodological approach is currently under
development. Empirical work in both Sweden and Finland is
being planned, starting with a review of the impact of recent
winter storms (and how, for instance, increased awareness
in Sweden following the Gudrun storm in 2005 may have
supported awareness there).
Theme 3: Impacts of pest outbreaks on forest use
A comparative study is underway on how the agenda-setting
process regarding policies addressing pests has developed
in the three countries. 6 The theoretical and methodological
frameworks for the study were developed based on a review of
recent policy developments. In the review, particular emphasis
was placed on progress in establishing and implementing policies
addressing beetles, which have recently had large impacts in
Sweden (after Gudrun) and in Canada. The researchers utilized
agenda-setting theory to review how extreme events may have
supported action towards policy development on forest pests.
A general legal review (in cooperation with other projects) was
undertaken as a first empirical step. Interviews are underway
in Sweden and Finland, to complement work undertaken in
Canada (currently being updated).
Theme 4: Municipal/local responses to flooding
The work under this comparative theme has been expanded
to include the production of an international edited book,
accepted for publication by Edward Elgar press. 7 The book will
contain reviews of how extreme flood events may impact both
policy development and awareness of adaptation. Both rural
case studies from northern Sweden, Finland and Canada and
urban cases from the Netherlands and Germany (the latter case
also reviewing the extreme flood event in Dresden in 2002 that
has been linked to the development of the EU Flood Directive)
will be included. Following a period of internal and external
review, the complete book will be submitted to the publishers
in February 2013, for final publication later in the year.
Extended research activities
In addition to the research activities described above, the
project has supported: research on Sweden’s Arctic policy
(relevant in order to be able to draw policy conclusions relevant
to Sweden in year three of the project); a literature review
on existing rural development research in northern Sweden,
and; a review of globalization in the Arctic (relevant to better
understanding multiple stresses (including economic change)
and to provide context for the Swedish example). 8 The research
on Sweden’s Arctic policy reviews the development of Sweden’s
Arctic policy in relation to different existing discourses on
the Arctic (continuing one of Keskitalo’s established lines of
enquiry).
The literature review constitutes a critique of the very limited
5
Co-authors currently include Monica Tennberg, Carina Keskitalo, and Joonas Vola (research assistant, Finland). The article is aimed to be submitted in 2013.
2
Keskitalo E.C.H., Klenk N., Bullock R., Smith A.L., Bazely D.R. (2011) “Preparing for and Responding to Disturbance: Examples from the Forest Sector in Sweden and Canada” Forests
2(2):505-524. This work involved external Canadian researchers, demonstrating the broad collaborative and networking opportunities enabled by the project.
3
Co-authors currently include Ryan Bullock, Carina Keskitalo, Terhi Vuojala-Magga, Maureen Reed, and Emmeline Laszlo Ambjörnsson.
4
A comparative article, “Understanding government and industry responses to economic crisis in northern forest regions: Cases and Lessons from Canada, Sweden and Finland,” is in
progress. The article is expected to be submitted in late 2012 or early 2013.
6
Co-authors currently include Carina Keskitalo, Maria Pettersson (Post doc in Carina Keskitalo’s sub-project Forest Governance funded by Mistra Future Forests, and providing legal
expertise), Emily Jane Davies, Terhi Vuojala-Magga.
7
Carina Keskitalo will edit the book, to be published with Edward Elgar press in 2013.
8
A draft publication on Sweden’s Arctic policy. It is expected to be published as a book chapter following minor revision: Keskitalo, E. C. H. (2013) “Sweden and the Arctic Policy Context:
Possibilities for new wine in old bottles” in Murray, R. W. and A. D. Nuttall (eds.) International Security and the Arctic: Examining the Theories and Policies of Circumpolar
Politics, Cambria Press.
PAGE 44 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 45

extent to which Swedish domestic research in Norrbotten and
Västerbotten counties has been taken into account in Arctic
work, notably the 2002 Arctic Human Development Report. 9 This
review contributes to the understanding of the Swedish role in
the Arctic. The review of globalization in the Arctic, co-authored
by Carina Keskitalo and Chris Southcott, has been invited for
inclusion in the second Arctic Human Development Report
(AHDR-II), planned for 2014 as a report under the Arctic Council.
Keskitalo has been invited due to her long career questioning
the image of the Arctic as an indigenous traditional subsistence
area, instead highlighting the market-integrated nature of,
for example, reindeer husbandry, and the globalized nature
of the Arctic (including major land uses such as mining, oil, gas
and forestry) as well as the increasingly globalized nature that
the Arctic Council establishment itself exemplifies. These three
contributions strongly support improved understanding of
Sweden’s role in the Arctic as well as existing development trends
in the region, and are evidence of an already-existing strong role
and strong research networks with respect to the Arctic region.
Other activities include an anthropological reflection on
studies of the north regarding interaction between different
groups in northern areas. 10 Expanding on the climate change
theme, a study has also been conducted on climate-change
impacts more broadly than in the cases described above. 11 The
project has also to some extent contributed to finalizing earlier
work, including in particular a natural-science piece on the
environmental impacts of reindeer feeding practices in the Sub-
Arctic. 12
Competence building and staffing
Capacity building for selected younger participants in the
project
The project has significantly contributed to capacity-building,
in particular for the younger participants in the project. Dr.
Ryan Bullock was co-author on the paper, “Preparing for and
responding to disturbance: Examples from the forest sector in
Sweden and Canada” published in Forests (Keskitalo et al 2011).
For the current phase of the research, Ryan has contributed to
research planning and design, preliminary data analysis and
writing. He has taken the lead in planning and preparing a coauthored
manuscript (under theme 1), in which the researchers
will:
a) Analyze the context of economic change and responses in
each of the national cases, and
b) Interview major forestry actors to assess their responses to
crises and conflict.
The selected cases are Norrbotten in Sweden, Lapin lääni in
Finland, and the Algoma District in Northern Ontario, Canada.
Ryan developed a case-study protocol to help maintain
consistency across cases and assist researchers in conducting
their research (completed during the fall of 2011). This included
developing a conceptual framework (based on social learning
and framing theory and social-ecological systems concepts)
as well as an initial coding scheme to be used to guide data
9
An article “Contrasting Arctic and mainstream Swedish descriptions of northern Sweden: the view from established domestic research” is planned for submission to the journal Arctic.
Co-authors Carina Keskitalo, Gunnar Malmberg, Dieter Müller, Kerstin Westin, Ulf Wiberg, and Örjan Pettersson are all with the Department of Geography and Economic History, Umeå
University.
10
Vuojala-Magga, T. (2012) “The Road to the North – Passage of Encounters and Emotions: Encounters between Sámi and Finns in the Inari and Teno River Areas as Depicted in Poetry
and Oral Tradition,” Arctic Anthropology (June/July).
11
Terhi Vuojala-Magga, Minna Turunen, Otso Suominen and Carina Keskitalo (manuscript) “Is the human being the key constructor of the fell areas The question of power relationships
of reindeer, reindeer herders and moths in the birch tree line of Paistunturi, Finnish Lapland.”
collection and analysis for the multi-case study, to accommodate
international cases. Ryan also helped to prepare a detailed
paper outline/summary and has met and communicated
regularly with team members to refine the analytical framework
and the work plan (completed January 2012). He is currently
using Nvivo data analysis software to code existing transcribed
interview data for the Canadian case, and reviewing current
literature. As lead author, he is also responsible for the ongoing
revision of the draft paper, identifying potential journals for
publication, and incorporating new draft materials. He is the
lead for follow-up communication with team members involved
in the work, especially to support ongoing data collection in
Sweden and Finland.
Historian Dr. Merle Massie and term researcher Åsa
Almstedt 13 gathered flood data on communities in western
Canada, to find suitable cognate boreal research regions
that would be comparable to cases already in development
in Sweden and Finland. The Canadian team chose the
Saskatchewan River sub-basin, particularly the Saskatchewan
River Delta region, to be the focus of the Canadian research
12
Minna Turunen, M., P. Oksanen, T. Vuojala-Magga, I. Markkula and M. Sutinen (submitted) “Ecological Impacts of Winter Feeding of Reindeer in the Sub-Arctic. Insights from a feeding
experiment,” Polar.
13
Almstedt was previously with the University of Saskatchewan, Canada and is now a PhD candidate at Umeå University in Sweden.
PAGE 46 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 47

on floods and emergency response. Åsa visited Sweden in May
2011 for Mistra meetings, and provided research synthesis
on a corollary document explaining emergency management
practices and policies in Canada before her term ended.
During year one of the Canadian flood project, Massie
collected background information on three case-study
communities and obtained a certificate of ethics approval.
Semi-structured interviews are in progress. To date, interviews
have been completed with five municipal leaders in the three
communities, three scientists who work on water issues in the
delta, and one provincial policy developer. Interviews have been
scheduled with three additional municipal leaders and three
more provincial policy developers, bringing the total to fifteen.
Two chapters are in preparation for an upcoming book,
Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and
Extreme Events at the Local Level. Merle Massie is the lead
author of a chapter in which emergency-management practices
and policies are compared across Sweden, Finland and Canada,
using the four ‘R’ framework: Risk Reduction, Readiness,
Response, and Recovery. Massie and Maureen Reed are
collaborating on a Canadian chapter, focusing on the importance
of historical flood memory in contributing to resilience. The
research focuses on flood events in the Saskatchewan River
Delta in 2005 and 2011, through an analysis of newspaper
articles, press releases, and semi-structured interviews in three
communities in northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Four
major themes, or insights, have emerged:
I. Historical flood memory is an important contributor to
resilience;
II. Agenda-setting is important, particularly in the interplay
between regional or provincial flood events and emergency
response, versus the local situation;
III. There are key differences between the two provinces of
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Manitoba has a long history of
major flood events, and has a highly-articulated provinciallevel
flood-response system. Saskatchewan has had more
experience with long-term droughts, and it is possible that
its water management is not as adept at dealing with flood
situations.
IV. Delta residents explain floods both as necessary and natural
events required to keep the delta healthy, and as crisis
events that require emergency-response measures. Interview
responses differ, depending on the interviewee’s perceptions
and if interviewees are speaking about the delta in general
or a specific flood event.
Papers by Massie and Reed are in progress, in addition to the
two book chapters planned for this project.
Terhi Vuojala-Magga has an established line of study
regarding issues of reindeer husbandry, climate change and
various questions of adaptation in changing climate. Aside from
her work detailed in several of the articles listed above, she
has undertaken fieldwork with interviews in Kaamasmukka,
Karigasniemi (Paistunturi reindeer herding cooperative) about
moths and reindeer, and fieldwork and final comments on
moth studies in Karigasniemi (November–December 2011).
This work will contribute to the article “Is the human being
the key constructor of the fell areas The question of power
relationships of reindeer, reindeer herders and moths in the
birch-tree line of Paistunturi, Finnish Lapland”, to be authored
by Terhi Vuojala-Magga, Minna Turunen, Otso Suominen and
Carina Keskitalo.
Joonas Vola, Jenny Åkermark and Emmeline Laszlo
Ambjörnsson have contributed to a number of book chapters.
The research behind these chapters involved reviewing
newspaper articles (Joonas) and undertaking interviews based
on pre-defined interviewee sets and interview questions
(Vola for the Finnish part of the Torne Valley flood case
study, Åkermark for the Swedish part of the Torne Valley
flood case study, and Laszlo Ambjörnsson for bark beetle and
also upcoming economic change studies). They have also all
undertaken qualitative interview coding (manual or using
qualitative software) in relation to set theoretical categories,
and contributed to analyzing coding to support article
development.
Outreach,stakeholder interaction, and
potential further research
Thus far, outreach has taken place mainly through Mistra (the
Mistra project website, presentation and engagement in Mistra
meetings (both general project and programme meetings))
and interaction with stakeholders through data collection (in
particular semi-structured interviews in case study areas in
Sweden, Finland and Canada, as detailed above). Keskitalo
presented the project at a programme presentation at the
Canadian Embassy in Stockholm during Stockholm Polar Week
(March 2012), and participated in a workshop on flood risk in
the Torne River. Keskitalo’s already-mentioned work on the
Arctic Human Development Report II has also contributed to
project outreach.
In Canada, the Nipawin Journal (a weekly newspaper
published in the main urban centre of the Canadian research
region) profiled the Canadian flood component of the Mistra
project. During a recent research trip, Merle Massie was an
invited guest on two local radio stations, to explain and
promote the research project. Since May 2011, Massie has
also written about the Canadian Mistra flood research on her
professional blog (see http://merlemassie.wordpress.com/).
Cooperation is also expected with the Global Institute for
Water Security as part of the University of Saskatchewan Science
in Society project initiated in late 2011, to investigate the
connections between communities and scientific researchers.
Graham Strickert, the postdoctoral fellow in charge of this
project, teamed up with Merle Massie in January 2012 on
a coordinated visit to Cumberland House; a First Nation
community studied in the Mistra project. Following an intensive
focus-group session in Cumberland House in May 2012,
Massie and Strickert committed to co-authoring a publication
combining the strengths of both projects. Strickert and Massie
also led a larger group of researchers back to Cumberland
House in April 2012 to help facilitate a rich, multi-year project
that will expand and extend the Science in Society (SIS) and
Mistra studies into the future, and may include foci on extreme
events, water security, water quality and quantity, and water
management. Potential further research orientations also
include continuation of work under the different themes as well
as extended research areas, to further understand how policy
on different levels can support adaptation in northern areas.
TABLE 1. PROJECT STAFFING
Researcher
Affiliation
Prof. Carina Keskitalo
Umeå University, Sweden
Jenny Åkermark
Emmeline Laszlo Ambjörnsson
Åsa Almstedt
Prof. Monica Tennberg
University of Lapland, Finland
Dr. Terhi Vuojala-Magga
Joonas Vola
Prof. Maureen Reed
University of Saskatchewan,
Dr. Merle Massie
Canada
Dr. Ryan Bullock
Dr. Emily Jane Davies
PAGE 48 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 49

FROM RESOURCE HINTERLAND TO
GLOBAL PLEASURE PERIPHERY
Assessing the role of tourism for sustainable development in Arctic communities
The aim of the project From Resource Hinterland to
Global Pleasure Periphery is to analyze the role of
tourism in sustaining Arctic communities. The researchers
are examining three geographic areas (Sweden, Russia
and Canada) and applying in-depth individual-case-study
and comparative approaches.
CONTACT:
Dieter Müller, project leader, Department of Social and Economic
Geography, Umeå University:
dieter.muller@geography.umu.se
Linda Lundmark, deputy project leader, Department of Social
and Economic Geography, Umeå University:
linda.lundmark@geography.umu.se
Activities and progress
The purpose of this research project is to assess the role of
tourism in changing Arctic societies. This is being done by
studying tourism development in the Arctic as part of an
innovation system. Our aim is to compare the state of the
tourism industry in three northern regions: Arctic Sweden, the
Yukon (in Canada), and the Nenets region (in Russia). These
regions share characteristics of northern locations but differ
significantly, not least with respect to their respective regulatory
frameworks.
Industries particularly within the Arctic regions face
different conditions not least influenced by their peripheral
characteristics. Therefore, we have taken a regional approach to
our analysis. In addition, a sectoral approach is utilized, focusing
in this case on tourism, in recognition of the distinct knowledge
and regulatory regimes that apply to different industries.
We refer to the systems under study as Arctic Tourism
Innovation Systems (ATIS). An innovation systems approach
PAGE 50 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 51

allows for identifying industrial success stories with respect to
reaching various goals. It also enables us to identify and discuss
a range of system failures, including traditional market failures
and failures in capabilities, networks, institutions, regulatory
frameworks, governance and corporate policies (such as policies
regarding competition). These aspects of system failure will also
be used to highlight ongoing research findings. Activities and
progress are summarized in Table 1.
labour-market issues. A questionnaire survey provided data
on tourism entrepreneurs. Interviews with numerous tourism
stakeholders in Eastern Norrbotten, Jokkmokk and the Nenets
region have also been used, to create a solid empirical base
for the research. Finally, an analysis of media debates has been
added to the data.
RESEARCH FINDINGS 1
TABLE 1: ISSUES ADDRESSED IN RESEARCH ACTIVITIES 2011– APRIL 2012
Failures Arctic Sweden Yukon Nenets
Market X X
Capabilities X X
Networks X X
Institutions X X X
Regulative frameworks X
Governance and policies X
Findings thus far are summarized in the following sections.
Geographically, research activities to date have been focused
primarily on Arctic Sweden, which is also the main focus of
the research programme. However, initial research activities
were conducted during 2011in the Nenets region and will be
intensified during 2012. Research in the Yukon will be led by
Dr. Suzanne de la Barre, who has recently relocated to Canada.
Hence, comparative studies in the Yukon are scheduled to start
during the summer of 2012. Many of the results and arguments
presented below are tentative. Only a few texts have been
published. The presentation of research findings does not
follow the scheme presented in table 1 at this stage, and efforts
to synthesize and organize the findings are planned for later.
Several sources have been central to the research presented
here. For Sweden, a longitudinal database was available
covering all individuals. This database has been utilized to assess
1
All references can be downloaded at: www.arcticfutures.se/page_id=59
The growing demand for natural resources and rising prices for
raw materials have brought about a renewed interest in mineral
assets across the circumpolar north, including northern Sweden.
Alongside this renewed interest, continued dependence
on “boom and bust” approaches to regional economic
development appears to be inevitable. It is difficult to establish
a sustainable diversified economy in a region characterized
by export-driven economic growth. This is particularly true in
remote regions. Alongside natural-resource extraction, tourism
is widely advanced as a means for regional and community
economic development in peripheral regions. However, in
northern Sweden, the tourism industry selling access to the
pleasure periphery commonly referred to as “Europe’s last
wilderness” must square off with stakeholders who access the
same territory as Europe’s strongest mining region.
Numerous challenges impede the use of tourism as a tool
for promoting economic development. These include: a lack
of, or underdeveloped, tourism infrastructure and amenities;
seasonality, and; a shortage of skilled human resources.
Moreover, tourism itself is at risk of falling into the “staples
trap.” As a result, only well-considered tourism development is
likely to contribute to regional economic development goals,
especially if these also aim to provide community benefits
that meet socio-cultural, economic and environmental criteria
related to sustainable development. This is the point of
departure for the research project.
Conceptual perspectives
As a first step in the research, Müller (2012) discussed the
conceptual foundations for Arctic tourism. He argued that Arctic
tourism is mainly based on exoticism and ideas about wilderness.
This implies a cognitive homogenization of Arctic regions, which
calls for a research approach that compares Arctic regions rather
than treating the area as one single unit. Moreover, Arctic
tourism presupposes a core-periphery relationship that influences
the forms and outcomes of Arctic tourism development. In this
context human dimensions are rare, since the Arctic is depicted
as wilderness only. Research on tourism in the Arctic is also
framed by this relationship and, thus, ideas for how tourism
should develop depart from norms and ideas derived from other
geographical areas. To address this, it is suggested that research
should originate from the region, as well.
Lundmark and Müller (2012) have initiated further the
development of an analytical framework. Their work departs
from an innovation-systems approach to tourism development.
Thus far, research on innovation systems has, for the most part,
been about industries’ innovations and business in the ‘new’
economy. This has encompassed urban space, and firms and
industries in the cultural sector, predominantly with a cluster
dimension attached. At the same time, this approach has
excluded other localities, i.e., rural and peripheral areas in the
polar region. Moreover, the Arctic adds to the complexity of
the analysis of the success and failure of destinations, not least
owing to the conditions of sparsely-populated peripheral areas
with increasing tourism, the threat of climate change, and the
presence of indigenous peoples. The framework proposed by
Lundmark and Müller suggests, therefore, connecting the dots
regarding an Arctic Tourism Innovation System (ATIS) through
empirical investigation. A tourism-innovation system includes
product, process, managerial, marketing and institutional
innovations and is interlinked with the social, economic,
institutional, cultural and regulatory settings that are specific
PAGE 52 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 53

to certain geographical entities. Thus, the spatial aspects of the
tourism phenomenon and the character of the tourism industry
itself are crucial in the development of a theory that addresses
the specificities encompassed in the Arctic.
Markets
In addition to identifying success factors, the project framework
also allows for pinpointing problems and reasons for failure.
Müller (2011) provides an overview of challenges that tourism
development in Arctic Sweden has faced since the early 1990s.
His work shows that a varied tourism supply is available and
promoted in all municipalities. Still, although innovation
regarding products – namely winter products like the Ice hotel,
car driving on ice and dog-sled tours – has taken place, tourism
in Arctic Sweden remains marginal in a national context.
Successful tourism development is concentrated to a limited
number of places, all accessible by air transport. Moreover,
land-use competition from other industries – particularly from
mining – is an increasing threat to tourism development.
Thus, an important question to be asked is whether tourism
development really should be promoted everywhere. It is
argued that accessibility and a certain level of economic
development seem to be important prerequisites for successful
development of a tourism industry.
Market problems are also addressed by Pashkevich (2011).
Destinations in the Arctic have been trying to position
themselves in the areas of niche and small-scale tourism, often
claiming that this type of tourism is more sustainable, and
thereby also could be labelled and promoted as eco-tourism.
There are several factors attributing to the type of images that
have been created and actively promoted for tourists searching
for both traditional and rather special attractions, such as
northern lights, the midnight sun, indigenous Sami culture,
nature tourism, film and music festivals, one of the deepest ongoing
underground iron ore mines, and space tourism. However
this strategy has not lead to the desired outcomes. The latest
development indicates that Arctic Sweden specifically targets
more affluent visitors. The focus of this research has therefore
been to analyse the marketing strategies of the main actors in
the tourism industry in Arctic Sweden with respect to how small
and medium-size enterprises actively choose their target groups,
and how they relate to the marketing of the destination of
Kiruna.
Tourism practices are further analyzed in a study of the
creation and re-creation of mining heritage in one of the
tourism destinations of the sub-Arctic region of Sweden – the
mining town of Kiruna. The expansion of the Kiruna mine has
led to a debate about what buildings and activities that are the
most important for the community and for developing tourism
activities. At the same time, heritage tourism, and important
parts of the local identity of the place, are founded on the
remains and landscapes of the mining industry. Several areas of
conflict and differing views concerning the future development
of tourism in Kiruna are discussed in the study. The necessity of
relocating parts of the town centre has attracted considerable
media attention and has been utilized to further strengthen
the image of Kiruna as a unique destination, especially among
international visitors.
Labour market issues
The topic of tourism impacts on the labour market is further
developed in a book chapter (Müller 2012). Here it is shown
that tourism development has indeed meant a lot to local
labour markets in many municipalities in Lapland, Sweden,
during the 1990s in particular. However, the development of
tourism is related to development in staple industries (mining
and forestry); an increase in labour demand within mining
causes a decline in tourism, and vice versa. Tourism seems only
to be of interest when employment options in other industries
are absent. Tourism is therefore discussed as a “hibernating
strategy.” However, the current focus on developing mines can
be questioned, since crisis is a regularly-occurring phenomenon
in the mining sector. Instead, it is argued that northern
municipalities should use the mining boom to diversify local
economies and labour markets, also in order to attract young
people and women.
The mining – tourism nexus
This topic is further elaborated by de la Barre (2012a).
Using northern Sweden’s Heart of Lapland as a case study,
this qualitative research is concerned with identifying the
roles that tourism and public-sector organizations have in
sustaining interest in and supporting tourism in the face
of new mining activities. What influence do municipalities,
their community development corporations, and other public
sector organizations have on the players and processes
required to sustain a commitment to tourism development
Moreover, an investigation into governance, focused on the
activities and priorities of tourism organizations and industry
associations, identifies challenges that are amplified when
economic development priorities shift to mining. In this
study, de la Barre considers tourism in relation to its potential
contribution to sector-based economic diversification (e.g.,
not related to natural resource extraction), and incorporates a
discussion on the significance of tourism in relation to regional
and community renewal, especially as these objectives are
expressed by the municipalities that make up the Heart of
Lapland. Findings highlight tourism development activities and
processes that are challenged during a mining boom, as well
as the potential contribution tourism development can make
in combination with the economic benefits expected from
mining.
How entrepreneurs deal with the situation is discussed in
de la Barre (2012b). The point of departure in this article is
that it is difficult for remote regions to convert export-driven
economic growth into a sustainable diversified economy. In
the context of recent interest and investment in mining in
Norrbotten, understanding the role of entrepreneurs and
tourism-related support organizations is crucial for planning
and sustaining innovative tourism development. The role
entrepreneurs have as key actors affecting tourism and
regional development is significant, especially with respect
to creating an environment conducive to innovation. This
research examines results from a survey conducted with
tourism entrepreneurs in Norrbotten in the autumn of
2011. A place-based approach has been used to increase the
understanding of the challenges and opportunities faced
by entrepreneurs in remote regions during a mining boom.
This approach emphasizes the unique attributes and assets
of individual communities, is responsive to local players
and their collaborative abilities, and draws attention to the
interventions and investments required to meet localized
regional and community goals and objectives.
Exploring factors that lead to sustaining interest on tourism
development during a mining boom reveals how different
economic sectors influence one another in the context of
broadly-defined regional and community development goals.
For example, collaboration that can provide community
infrastructure that can be used by residents and tourists alike,
or that increases social and cultural capital. Investigating
tourism development processes during a mining boom also
provides insight into the nature of a region’s commitment and
ability to fulfil promises for economic diversification. Tentative
results indicate, however, that tourism entrepreneurs do not
perceive mining activities as providing opportunities, and
municipalities have difficulty harnessing benefits from mining
to promote economic diversification.
Brouder (2012) takes a positive perspective on the role
of tourism in northern peripheries. With creative and
innovative actions by members of the community, Brouder
sees tourism as one branch of the economy that can benefit
rural regions. Entrepreneurial activity and institutional efforts
have led to some growth in tourism in many rural areas, but
how exactly does this help to sustain communities Tourism
stakeholders in rural communities engage in activities that
result in positive externalities. In this study of the tourism
stakeholders in one municipality in rural Sweden, Brouder
looks beyond the pecuniary benefits of tourism (which
are quite well understood), and focuses instead on other
contributions. Themes emerging from qualitative interviews
with entrepreneurs and institutional stakeholders are:
– Tourist office and tourism firms develop together;
– Tourism networks are loose and project-based;
– Tourism is a desirable diversifier; and
– Tourism contributes to the local leisure space.
PAGE 54 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 55

Brouder’s research results indicate evidence of a number of
positive externalities that extend into the local social realm.
Preservation and tourism development
Pashkevich (2012) addresses the nexus of preservation and
development with regard to cultural heritage. Economic
development based on the utilisation of iron ore deposits in
one of the world’s most technologically-developed mines in
Kiruna continues to be crucial not only for local and regional
development of the area, but also for the whole country.
Mining activities are part of local heritage, and have been
utilised as a tourist attraction for Kiruna’s visitors. Current
development of Kiruna – including the relocation of the city
centre – has also been used by the local Destination Marketing
Organisation as an opportunity to develop a series of innovative
tourism products. However, there are still some unresolved
issues. One of them is the heritage of the indigenous people
of this area; the group of the northernmost Sami people. Ways
of preserving and making Sami culture accessible to a wider
audience is one of the questions discussed in this paper.
Müller (2012) takes a look at the preservation of natural
heritage. National parks in peripheral areas are often
promoted as tools for regional development, and a way of
restructuring resource-based economies into tourism. Though
not always embraced by local communities, tourism businesses
are generally expected to favour new park establishments.
However, the coalition between environmentalists and tourism
entrepreneurs has recently been challenged. Müller’s book
chapter analyzes discourses regarding the establishment of
national parks in Arctic areas, using the proposed National
Park Vindelfjällen in northern Sweden as a case study. Using
discourse analysis of media debates, public documents and
interviews, Müller demonstrates that struggles over national
parks are not only about tourism development, but wider
concerns regarding the management of Arctic environments.
In this context, it is not useful to simply classify stakeholders as
local, national and international. Interests differ within each
of these groups, mirroring a general struggle over control of
northern regions. Hence, tourism development is used as an
arena for negotiating issues of governance and power.
A comparative approach to above issue is presented by
Pashkevich (2012). In many parts of the world, developing
nature-based tourism is increasingly looked upon as a necessity
in order to increase regional development opportunities as
well as to motivate improved nature protection. Pashkevich’s
contribution is concerned with an evaluation of the current
stage of tourism development and management of protected
areas in North-West Russia and Sweden, drawing also on
examples from other Arctic territories. Her point of departure
is based on general principles of the development of natural
areas proclaimed by the Ministry of Natural Resources and
the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, respectively.
Achieving the ambitions expressed by these institutions
regarding the recreational and educational functions of
protected areas is difficult in the absence of investments in
tourism infrastructure. At the same time, environmentalists
have been expressing concerns regarding tourism development
in protected areas, on the grounds that it is not ecologically
sustainable. In this study, Pashkevich concludes that, until
now, systems established to protect nature have limited the
recreational potential of protected areas, but in different ways
and with different implications. There is evidence that mistrust
and lack of collaboration between governmental agencies and
stakeholders, both in Sweden and in Russia, limit opportunities
and hinder positive development of the tourism industry. The
possibilities for wider involvement of the local population in the
decision-making and actual development of tourism in these
areas are scarce.
Transportation
An evaluation of the tourism industry in maritime cities
in Arctic Russia suggests that a significant qualitative and
quantitative increase in tourism activities organised by
domestic tourism firms is virtually impossible (Pashkevich
2011). There are several factors contributing to this. The
previously-established Soviet system of government support
PAGE 56 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 57

for investments into the port facilities and the sea fleet have
not been effectively replaced through the creation of new
structures. Investments required for reconstruction could
be contributed by the federal government, but increased
passenger transportation has not been a priority. Having in
mind, increased environmental pressures in this highly sensitive
area it is vital to establish a well-functioning monitoring
and rescue system in the situation of ever increasing risks
which come not only from the increased transport along the
Northern Sea Route, but also from the exploitation of offshore
oil and gas reserves in the Arctic seas.
Indigenous dimensions
Engström and Boluk have explored the conflict between a
Swedish Sami community and a local tourism company eager
to exploit traditional Sami land. The aim of their research is
to illustrate the Sami perspective and how they negotiated
during a conflict concerning the planning process of a large
scale tourism development. Key findings of this study indicate
that there is a strong hierarchal order among different
land-use interests. Furthermore, traditional claims to the
land are not always considered as superior to economicallydriven
initiatives. Instead, objectives identified by the state
government are important factors in determining outcomes in
such types of conflict.
Similarly Engström (2012) has found that relationships
between different stakeholders often are asymmetrical. In
the Swedish mountain range, large-scale tourism companies
(e.g. skiing resorts) and small-scale Sami tourism firms are
often located close together. This could potentially create
great opportunities for both types of businesses in terms of
market access and diversity of the destination. But do the
firms seize such opportunities Do they collaborate If so, how
and to what extent And how do the different scales of firms
influence the power relations between them The purpose of
this ongoing study is to investigate the relationship between
large-scale tourism companies and small-scale Sami tourism
firms. The study is being conducted through semi-structured
interviews with tourism entrepreneurs in Idre, where both
a large-scale tourism company and smaller Sami firms are
located. Preliminary results indicate that even if there is a
degree of collaboration between firms of different scale, there
is a skewed power relation between them.
Governance and planning
Pashkevich (2012) aims to identify and analyse issues
influencing the process of general tourism development in
the Russian Arctic. This is done through the re-evaluation of
the regional-tourism planning processes and existing tourist
products of the seven administrative units of the territory
of the Russian Arctic: West Murmansk; East Murmansk;
Arkhangelsk oblast (Nenets Autonomous okrug); Jamal-Nenets
Autonomous okrug; Krasnoyarsk Krai (Taymyr Dolgano-Nenets
municipal rayon); Sakha Republic; and Chukotka Autonomous
okrug. Although these units possess unique natural and
cultural characteristics suitable for developing unique tourism
products, this potential is either not or only partly utilised. It
is possible to identify clear losers as well as the leaders. The
situation is often dependent on the level of engagement of
public organisations, as well as private companies within the
natural-resource-extraction sector. The engagement of such
stakeholders is an important condition for achieving desired
tourism development, as well as for developing indigenous
tourism products.
In another contribution, Pashkevich focuses on the
development of the tourism activities in the territory of the
Russia’s Arctic regions. The number of specialised conferences,
forums, meetings and other gatherings organised by different
state and federal tourism agencies and private actors has
increased dramatically. However, most tourism development in
these regions proceeds unplanned, and should be considered
in a long-term perspective with respect to planning. Levels of
service, tourism products and tourism infrastructure in most
of Russia’s peripheral regions vary considerably in comparison
to the leading administrative centres of the country (such as
Moscow and St. Petersburg). One of the obvious problems
when it comes to the rapidly-developing market of tourism
products is a lack of cooperation amongst its actors. Tour
operators from neighbouring regions commonly engage in
public-relations wars, leaving little room for cooperation.
Bringing together these actors to create a common branding
strategy could improve and strengthen the position of such
peripheral regions, nationally and internationally. In this
paper, Pashkevich looks at the potential to create a common
branding platform for these regions.
In line with previous research, one can conclude that
considerable marketing efforts, including investments in
infrastructure to facilitate tourist flows, are needed, especially
when it comes to the Russian Arctic communities (Pashkevich
2012). The peculiarities of the highly-centralised administrative
structure of the Russian resource management system make
it highly improbable to ease the burden on the regional and
local government organisations when it comes to opening
up for alternative uses of nature reserves and national parks
by private actors. Rejuvenating the tourism space in the case
of Nenets Autonomous okrug is highly questionable, due to
the strong presence of the hydrocarbon sector in the region.
Without serious state intervention it will remain a myth rather
than a reality.
Opportunities
The results of research performed by de la Barre and Brouder
(2012) highlight opportunities for polar tourism. Following
culinary and food-tourism trends developing around the
world, the unique attributes of the circumpolar cupboard
are increasingly being recognised and used to enhance the
appeal of northern destinations. As part of this positioning,
food tourism is embracing the rich storytelling traditions of
circumpolar peoples; both indigenous people who have always
lived off the land and more recent newcomers who have made
“the North” their home.
With the exception of its indigenous peoples’ perspective,
the Arctic has generally not been seen as a region resplendent
with food supplies plucked from lavish, bountiful landscapes.
However, slow and local food movements are having a
significant impact on the way Arctic foods are presented
and perceived, especially for the purposes of tourism. In this
paper, the authors examine emerging food-tourism trends
and issues in the Circumpolar North. They evaluate the
growing importance of food, and its relationship to landbased
traditions and activities in the tourism experiences
offered in northern Canada and Scandinavia. Using examples
highlighting the use of food drawn from tourism experiences
offered across the Circumpolar North, they examine productdevelopment
strategies and the innovative nature of food and
culinary tourism in northern regions.
While considering the significant opportunities that food
dimensions offer circumpolar tourism, the unique challenges
posed by this complex tourism-development environment
are also explored. These include challenges encountered by
peripheral tourism in general, as well as those that relate
specifically to food-tourism activities. Climate change is also
considered, as an on-going process that will continue to
impact both tourism and food security. Results indicate that
cuisine is an important complement to the Arctic tourism
experience, and the richness of the circumpolar cupboard is an
under-utilised asset of tourism in the Circumpolar North.
Preliminary summary
Preliminarily, it can be concluded that tourism development
should be seen in the context of other industries and regional
development. The role of tourism as tool for diversifying local
economies and sustaining local communities is not primarily
threatened by climate change. Instead, the dominance and
power of resource-extracting industries overshadows the
development of alternative livelihoods. This conclusion is
applicable to northern Sweden and the Nenets region, and we
expect to see similar results in the Yukon. This does not mean
that tourism is not happening, but it seems to be perceived as
a hibernation strategy between mining booms rather than an
opportunity to diversify local economies and create attractive
places for both tourists and residents.
PAGE 58 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 59

PROSPECTS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH
Arctic discourses
Living conditions and economic development in Arctic
communities are influenced by outside stakeholders,
including tourists (who have certain images of the Arctic) and
governments that expect and see both opportunities and
risks related to Arctic development. Another project in the
programme assesses futures passed. However, major accounts
of current discourses regarding Arctic development as well
as media information and public images of Arctic spaces and
places are absent. Our research has so far indicated that tourist
images of the Arctic and Arctic peoples do not correspond to
Arctic realities. This discrepancy certainly affects development in
the Arctic and calls for further research.
Arctic futures in Arctic communities
So far, this research programme has mainly taken an external
perspective on Arctic futures, fully in line with our notion that
the Arctic is defined primarily by outside stakeholders, while
local voices are not heard in discourses on Arctic development.
One research prospect is thus to document accounts of Arctic
futures as defined by local communities within the Arctic.
What are the possibilities and visions that are developed within
the area, and what problems and challenges are perceived to
achieving these futures The role of tourism should also be
highlighted in responses to these questions.
Economic diversification processes and
community development
Our research has shown that economic diversification is a core
issue for communities in northern peripheries. This is not only
the case regarding local labour markets, but also regarding
the need to develop attractive communities that survive bust
periods in the resource-extracting industries. Hence, there is a
need to take a closer look at the link between natural-resource
companies, their corporate social policies, and sustainable
PAGE 60 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 61

community development. Obviously, preconditions vary amongst
our case study areas. A lack of civic non-governmental institutions
and organizations in the European states creates challenges for
local relations to strong companies and southern governments,
particularly considering the impacts of globalization and the
changing role of government. In this context, it is important to
ask to what extent small communities can protect their interests
in negotiations with powerful stakeholders mainly interested in
the natural resources available in the area.
Assessing the potential for non-Indigenous cultural
tourism clusters in Arctic resource peripheries
Tourism development in Arctic regions has traditionally relied
on two tourism product niches: nature-based tourism and
indigenous tourism. Cultural tourism that aims to develop
tourism experiences linked to culture defined in broader sense
have received little attention. Cultural tourism – focusing for
example on the fine arts, theatre and music, culinary tourism,
northern lifestyles – are increasingly significant to destination
development. Following on the heels of rural tourism studies,
where the last decade saw for example emerging agri-tourismrelated
tourism, research could seek to understand how new
forms of tourism can increase the benefits that tourism can bring
to Arctic communities. Not only do such cultural-tourism activities
present opportunities for tourism development, they highlight
the positive contributions that tourism can make to community
development initiatives. In the periphery, this also contributes to
enhancing opportunities for economic diversification (including
diversification within the tourism sector), increasing the potential
for demographic renewal (especially when combined with
natural-resource-based employment opportunities).
Outreach activities
Scientific outreach activities are mainly channelled through
the researchers’ individual networks. An important forum for
the dissemination of results is the International Polar Tourism
Research Network (IPTRN) and their biannual conferences. Four
members of the project team attended the IPTRN-conference
in Nain, in April 2012. Other fora where researchers from
the network participate include meetings held by: IASSA; the
International Geographical Union Commission of Tourism,
Leisure and Global Change; the American Association of
Geographers, and; the Nordic Symposia on Tourism and
Hospitality Research. The project will also be represented at the
Canadian Association of Geographers Meeting in Whitehorse,
Canada, in 2013.
Moreover, the project is affiliated with the Arctic Chair in
Tourism programme at Finnmark University College, led by
Professor Arvid Viken, and the UArctic Thematic Network on
Northern Tourism.
Regarding outreach to external stakeholders, a major effort
is planned for the spring of 2013, when seminars will be held
in Pajala, Kiruna and Jokkmokk to present the results of the
research project and to further dialogue with stakeholders in
Northern Swedish communities.
Spin-off activities
Members of the research team are involved in two applications
submitted to the FORMAS-programme on Sami research
(2012–2015). Dieter Müller is main applicant for a project
titled “From Reindeer Herder to Tourism Entrepreneur: The
Transformation of Sápmi as Geographical Process and Lived
Experience” (4 849 kSEK). Pashkevich and Heldt-Cassel joined
Carina Keskitalo, project leader for another Arctic Futures
project, in an application titled “Processes of representation in
indigenous tourism development: Cases from reindeer husbandry
areas in northern Sweden and northwest Russia” (5 249 kSEK).
Suzanne de la Barre has submitted an application to the Northern
Research Institute (based at Yukon College, Yukon, Canada) for
funds to offset costs of Yukon-based field research that will form
the comparative component of the “Minding the Boom” research
project. Moreover, Lundmark and Müller, respectively, intend to
submit applications to the Swedish Environmental Protection
Agency’s call for research proposals on “A Magnificent Mountain
Landscape for Future Generations.”
TABLE 1. PROJECT STAFFING
Researcher
Prof. Dieter K. Müller
Associate Prof. Linda Lundmark
Dr. Suzanne de la Barre (Post doc)
M. Sc. Patrick Brouder*
B.Sc. Fredric Hopstadius
Assistant Prof. Albina Pashkevich
Assistant Prof. Suzanna Heldt-Cassel
M. Sc. Christina Engström
Dr. Nadezhda Iglovskaja
*Thus far travel funding only – salary covered with faculty funding.
Through these activities we hope to provide additional financial
and human resources to the Mistra research group, furthering
capacity building for performing research on tourism and
regional development in northern areas.
The project has also contributed to developing a Master in
Northern Tourism, recently endorsed by UArctic. The consortium
of participating institutions is led by Finnmark University College
and also involves Umeå University, Lapland University, the
University of Oulu, the University of Iceland, Lakehead University
and the University of Northern British Columbia.
Organization
Affiliation; discipline
All at Umeå University; Geography
and Economic History
All at Dalarna University; Human
Geography
Pomorsky State University; Human
Geography
The project is organized as a cooperative effort involving Umeå
University (UMU) and Dalarna University (DU). The project leader
is Professor Dieter K. Müller (UMU). Associate Professor Linda
Lundmark (UMU), Assistant Professor Susanna Heldt-Cassel (DU),
Assistant Professor Albina Pashkevich (DU) and Dr. Suzanne de la
Barre (UMU) are core members of the research team.
PhD student Christina Engström’s research (DU) is partly
financed by the programme. Masters student Fredric Hopstadius
(UMU) has been employed part-time to assist researchers in
the project. To support data collection in the Nenets region,
Nadezhda Iglovskaja (PhD in geography, Pomorsky State
University, Arkhangelsk) has been employed part-time.
In August 2012, following her Post doc at Umeå University, de
la Barre will be employed as an Assistant Professor at Vancouver
Island University (VIU), Canada, continuing with the project part
time as a research associate. VIU will join the project consortium.
Patrick Brouder is tentatively expected to join the research team
as a Post doc at Umeå University.
Common activities in the project include joint meetings twice
a year. A first meeting was organized in Stockholm in April 2011.
A second meeting was held during the Nordic Symposium of
Tourism and Hospitality Research, in Rovaniemi in September
2011. For 2012, a first meeting was held during the Third
International Polar Tourism Research (IPTRN) Network Conference
in Nain, Canada (April 2012). A second meeting will be held
in Umeå (May 2012), where the project will also be visited by
Professor Margaret Johnston from Lakehead University, Canada.
Otherwise, the work is mainly organized locally in Umeå and
Borlänge, respectively.
PAGE 62 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 63

COMMUNICATION
Programme-level communication efforts primarily target stakeholders
interested in information about the ongoing research. In 2011 the programme
website arcticfutures.se was launched. It is updated continuously with new
content. A folder describing the programme and its projects was also printed in
2011, with a new version produced in early 2012.
The Mistra Arctic Futures in a Global Context research programme
was well represented at the Seventh International Congress of Arctic Sciences
(ICASS VII), with the theme Circumpolar Perspectives in Global Dialogue: Social
Sciences beyond the International Polar Year in June 2011, in Akureyri, Iceland.
The Programme Director was in attendance and researchers from four of the
five projects presented their work.
The programme was also presented at the meeting for Senior Arctic
Officials of the Arctic Council, in Luleå in November 2011. In December 2011
planning started for a programme symposium at the Canadian Embassy, held in
Stockholm during Stockholm Polar Week in March 2012. Stakeholders including
indigenous Arctic people and industry, as well as Arctic researchers and
international policymakers and diplomats, were in the audience or represented
on the panel. All five projects were also represented at the yearly Polarforum;
an event to which the Swedish Polar Research Secretariat invites all Swedish
polar researchers and polar-affiliated organizations. Researchers from two of
the research projects presented their work with well-attended sessions and
posters at the International Polar Year conference in Montreal, Canada,in April
2012. The Programme Director also participated in this conference.
Additional joint outreach events are planned for 2012, including a session
dedicated to the programme at a conference in Umeå for all Swedish socialscience
and humanities researchers studying polar issues.
Arctic Games: Interactive development and application of
a transdisciplinary framework for sustainable governance
options of Arctic natural resources
Publications
Fabritius, M. K. and Sandberg, A. (2012) “Lofoten tourism futures: Actors and
strategies” UiN Report No. 3-2012, University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway.
Presentations
Noring, M. and E. Sjöberg (25 June 2011) “A framework for sustainable
governance of Arctic natural resources” presented at the Seventh
International Congress of Arctic Social Sciences (ICASS VII), Akureyri, Iceland.
Sandberg, A. (14 November 2011) “Arctic Games” presented at the
Workshop of Political Theory and Policy Analysis, Indiana University, USA.
Cole, S. (11 January 2012) “Valuing marine ecosystem services affected by
oil spills in the Baltic Sea & the Northeast Atlantic” presented at a working
group meeting for the Norwegian Coast Guard, Oslo, Norway.
Izmalkov, S. (13 March 2012) “Arctic Games” presented at a brown bag
seminar, New Economic School, Moscow, Russia.
Fabritius, M.K. (16 March 2012) “Arctic Games Lofoten case study”
presented at the Network Meeting of Women in Salten for Enterprise
Development (GLØD), Norway.
Söderqvist, T. (27 March 2012) “Arctic Games” presented at the Mistra
Arctic Futures in a Global Context Stakeholder Meeting, Canadian Embassy,
Stockholm, Sweden.
Hasselström, L., Noring, M., Håkansson, C., Khaleeva, Y., Cole, S. and
Soutukorva, Å. (16-19 June 2012) “The economic value of ecosystem services
at risk from oil spills in the Barents Sea” Accepted for presentation at the
International Society of Ecological Economics Conference, Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil.
Assessing Arctic Futures: Voices, Resources and Governance
Publications
Nilsson, A.E. (2011) ”Från is till vatten – en ny tid för Norra ishavet och
Arktis” Framtider 3, pp. 8-10. http://www.framtidsstudier.se/wp-content/
uploads/2011/10/Framtider-3_Hav_final_110916l%C3%A5guppl%C3%B6st.pdf
Nilsson, A.E. (2011) ”Varmare klimat skärper kampen om Arktis framtid”
Världspolitikens Dagsfrågor 3. http://www.ui.se/butik/varldspolitikensdagsfragor/2011/varmare-klimat-skarper-kampen-om-arktis-framtid.aspx
Sörlin, S. (2011) “Sverige – landet utan polarpolitik” Ottar 5, pp. 12-18.
In press
Avango, D. (2012) “Heritage in action: Historical remains in polar conflicts”
in Sörlin, S. (ed.), Science, geopolitics, and culture in the polar regions:
Norden beyond borders. Ashgate: London, UK.
Avango, D., and Hacquebord, L. (2012) “Polar industrial heritage sites
as resources for historical research” in Munroe, D. (ed.), Industrial and
cultural heritage: South Georgia in context, Dundee.
Lajus, J. (2012) “Linking people through fish: Science and Barents Sea fish
resources in the context of Russian-Scandinavian relations” in Sörlin, S. (ed.),
Science, geopolitics, and culture in the polar regions: Norden beyond
borders. Ashgate: London, UK.
Nilsson, A. (2012) “Knowing the Arctic: the Arctic Council as a cognitive
forerunner” in The Arctic Council: Its place in the future of Arctic governance
(Gordon Foundation, online publication).
Roberts, P. (2012) “Nordic or national: Post-war visions of conflict and
co-operation” in S. Sörlin (ed.), Science, geopolitics and culture in the
polar regions: Norden beyond borders, Ashgate: London, UK.
Roberts, P., van der Watt, L.M. and Dodds, K. (2012) ““But why do you
go there”: Norway, South Africa, and the Antarctic in the 1950s” in Sörlin,
S. (ed.), Science, geopolitics and culture in the polar regions: Norden
beyond borders, Ashgate: London, UK.
Roberts, P. (2012) “The expeditions of Gino Watkins: Arctic travel in a
disenchanted age” in Federhofer, M.T., Aspaas, P.P. and Gaupseth, S. (eds.),
Travels in the North, Berghahn: Oxford, UK.
Sörlin, S. (ed.) (2012) Science, geopolitics and culture in the polar
regions: Norden beyond borders, Ashgate: London, UK.
Sörlin, S. “Introduction: northern nations and polar states: Arctic strategies
in the Nordic countries” in Sörlin, S. (ed.) (2012), Science, geopolitics and
culture in the polar regions: Norden beyond borders, Ashgate: London,
UK.
Sörlin, S. (2012) “Ice diplomacy and climate change: Hans Ahlmann
between moraines and morals” in Sörlin, S. (ed.), Science, geopolitics and
culture in the polar regions: Norden beyond borders, Ashgate: London,
UK.
Works in review
Avango, D., and Högselius, P. “Arctic sea ice and energy geopolitics” in
Christensen, M., Nilsson, A.E. and Wormbs, N. (eds.), When the ice breaks:
Media, science, and the politics of climate change (in review with
Palgrave Macmillan, New York).
Lajus, J. “In search for instructive models: The Russian state at a crossroads
to conquering the North” in Jørgensen, D. and Sörlin, S. (eds.), Northscapes:
history, technology, and the making of northern environments
(Vancouver).
Kalemeneva, E. ““Land of the future”: Projects of cities under the dome in
the Soviet North in the 1950s-1960s” in Konstruiruia Sovetskoe Politiheskoe
soznanie, povsednevnye praktiki, novye identichnosti [Constructing the Soviet
Political consciousness, everyday practices, and new identity], Proceedings of
a conference held at the European University at St. Petersburg, http://www.
eu.spb.ru/en/index/announcements/4291-constructing-soviet
Kuligina (Sidorova), E. “The Soviet north in the focus of the interests
of foreign scientists: Terence Armstrong, Soviet-British connections, and
circulation of knowledge in the 1960s” in Konstruiruia Sovetskoe Politiheskoe
soznanie, povsednevnye praktiki, novye identichnosti [Constructing the Soviet
Political consciousness, everyday practices, and new identity], Proceedings of
a conference held at the European University at St. Petersburg http://www.
eu.spb.ru/en/index/announcements/4291-constructing-soviet
Sörlin, S. “Circumpolar science: Scandinavian approaches to the Arctic and
the North Atlantic, ca 1930 to 1960” Science in Context.
Sörlin, S. and Lajus, J. “Proposing an ice free Arctic Sea: From Holocene
fact to Anthropocene future” in M. Christensen, A.E. Nilsson, and N. Wormbs
(eds.), When the ice breaks: Media, science, and the politics of
PAGE 64 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 65

climate change (in review with Palgrave Macmillan, New York).
Sörlin, S. and Lajus, J. “Melting the glacial curtain: Scandinavian-Soviet
networks in the geophysical field sciences between two Polar Years, 1932/33-
1957/58” Journal of Historical Geography (in review).
Presentations
Avango, D., presented by S. Sörlin (22 June 2011) “Heritage in Action:
historical remains in polar conflicts” at the International Congress of Arctic
Social Science, Akureyri, Iceland.
Avango, D. (26 April 2012) “Constructing industrial futures for the Arctic”
presented in session 1.4.3 at From Knowledge to Action: International Polar
Year Conference, Montreal, Canada.
Avango, D. and Lajus, J. (26-27 April 2012) Conveners of session 1.4.3
“The history and archaeology of the Arctic and Antarctic: science, politics,
resources and cultural heritage” at From Knowledge to Action: International
Polar Year Conference, Montreal, Canada.
Avango, D., Lajus, J. and Wormbs, N. (26-27 April 2012) Panel chairs
in session 1.4.3 at From Knowledge to Action: International Polar Year
Conference, Montreal, Canada.
Depledge, D. and Roberts, P. (25 January 2012) “Into the Arctic: the
northward course of global capitalism” presented at Arctic Frontiers: Energies
of the High North, Tromsø, Norway.
Filimonova, N. (25 January 2012) “Russian state and business oil/gas
strategies in the Barents region: challenges and opportunities” presented at
Arctic Frontiers: Energies of the High North, Tromsø, Norway.
Kalemeneva, E. (23 April 2012) “City under the dome: how far from
the reality” presented at the conference Science Fiction Across Media:
Alternative Histories, Alien Futures, Umeå University, Sweden.
Lajus, J. (30 June 2011) “Collective use of common fish resources and the
sustainability of the socio-ecological system in the Russian North” presented
at the 6th Conference of the European Society for Environmental History,
Turku, Finland.
Lajus, J. (13 August 2011) “Warming of the Arctic in 1930s: flow of
thoughts and controversial perception in Russia and Nordic countries”
presented at the 27th Conference of Nordic Historians, Tromsø, Norway.
Lajus, J. (5 November 2011) “From the Arctic seas to the global ocean:
Soviet oceanography from the second IPY to IGY” presented at the History of
Science Society Annual Meeting, Cleveland, USA.
Lajus, J. (30 April 2012) ”Soviet studies of warming of the Arctic in 1930s
and international circulation of environmental knowledge” invited lecture at
the Seminar of Center for Videnskabsstudier, Institut for Fysik & Astronomi,
Aarhus University, Denmark.
Lajus, J. and Sörlin, S. (17 February 2012) “Cryo-connections, political
friendship, and the prospects of an ice–free Arctic, 1928–1955” presented
at the conference “Frost, Ice, and Snow: Cold Climate in Russian History,”
German Historical Institute, Moscow, Russia.
Lajus, J. and Sörlin, S. (26April 2012) “Arctic marine resources in Russia
between local users and the state, 1890s-1930s” keynote presentation
in session 1.4.3 at From Knowledge to Action: International Polar Year
Conference, Montreal, Canada.
Nilsson, A.E., Avango, D., Sörlin, S., Wormbs, N. and Lajus, J. (25 June 2011)
“Assessing Arctic futures: Voices, resources, and governance” presentation of
the project idea and theoretical framework at the International Congress of
Arctic Social Science, Akureyri, Iceland.
Nilsson, A.E. (24 June 2011) “Challenges in assessing the Arctic”
presentation at a special session for planning of the Arctic Human
Development report (II) at the International Congress of Arctic Social Science,
Akureyri, Iceland.
Nilsson, A.E. (27 January 2012) “Changing actor landscapes” presented in
the “Landscapes in Change” workshop, Arctic Frontiers: Energies of the High
North, Tromsø, Norway.
Nilsson, A.E. (25 April 2012) Convener of session 3.4.1 “Politics and
practice in environmental management: lessons and new challenges” at
From Knowledge to Action: International Polar Year Conference, Montreal,
Canada.
Nilsson, A.E. and Wormbs, N. (24 April 2012) “When the ice brakes: media
and the science and politics of climate change” presented in session 3.4.1
at From Knowledge to Action: International Polar Year Conference, Montreal,
Canada.
Roberts, P. and van der Watt, L.M. (27 January 2011) “Bouvet Island and the
limits of Cold War science” presented at the conference Exploring Ice and Snow
in the Cold War, Rachel Carson Center, Munich, Germany.
Roberts, P. (5 November 2011) “Hans Pettersson and the politics of Cold
War patronage” presented at the History of Science Society Annual Meeting,
Cleveland, USA.
Roberts, P. (26 January 2012) “Assessing Arctic futures: voices, resources, and
governance” presented in “Arctic futures: workshop on future studies related to
the Arctic” at Arctic Frontiers: Energies of the High North, Tromsø, Norway.
Roberts, P., Strey-Mellema, S. et al. (22-27 April 2012) “Interdisciplinary
assessment of the near-term future Arctic through 2030” poster presentation
at From Knowledge to Action: International Polar Year Conference, Montreal,
Canada.
Sörlin, S. (27 January 2011) Keynote address “The science of ice and snow
during the Cold War” presented at the conference Exploring Ice and Snow in
the Cold War, Rachel Carson Center, Munich, Germany.
Sörlin, S. (30 June 2011) “Governance of common pool resources,” session
chair at the 6th Conference of the European Society for Environmental
History, Turku, Finland.
Sörlin, S. (11 August 2011) “Finns det en svensk politik för Arktis” [Is
there a Swedish Arctic policy], presented in a special session on Nordic
nations and the Arctic at the 27th Conference of Nordic Historians, Tromsø,
Norway.
Wormbs N. (5 November 2011) session chair for the panel “All at sea
Oceanography and geopolitics in the twentieth century” at the History of
Science Society Annual Meeting, Cleveland, USA.
Upcoming presentations
Avango, D., Lajus, J., Nilsson, A.E., Roberts, P. and Wormbs, N. (4-7 October
2012) Round-table panel: “The history of technology and Arctic futures”
submission (in review) for the annual meeting of the Society for the History of
Technology, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Lajus, J. and Sörlin, S. (4-7 October 2012) “Technologies of Observation
and Exploration of Icy Waters and Lands in the Context of ”Arctic Warming”
in the 1930s” to be presented in the session ”Technology on Ice: Geopolitics,
Environmental Knowledge, and Northern Ambitions, 1900-2012” at the annual
meeting of the Society for the History of Technology, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Roberts, P. (27-29 June 2012) “Nordic oceanographers in a time of change:
Hans Pettersson and Anton Bruun” to be presented at the conference Cold War/
Blue Planet: the rise of the environmental sciences in an age of geopolitical
tensions, University of Manchester, UK.
Roberts, P. and Senatore, X. (14-19 July 2012) Conveners of the session
“Voicing silences in Antarctic history” to be held at the Scientific Committee on
Antarctic Research Open Science Conference, Portland, USA.
Roberts, P. (14-19 July 2012) “Who discovered Antarctica: Antarctic history
as geopolitics” to be presented at the session ”Voicing silences in Antarctic
history” Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research Open Science Conference,
Portland USA.
Sörlin, S. (27-29 June 2012) “The construction of the Kiruna observatory for the
International Geophysical Year, 1957-58” to be presented at the conference
Cold War/Blue Planet: the rise of the environmental sciences in an age of
geopolitical tensions, University of Manchester, UK.
Arctic Futures: Managing Competition
and Promoting Cooperation
Publications
Peng, J. (2011) “What is China doing in the Arctic,” Baltic Rim Economies,
No. 4, p.28. http://www.tse.fi/FI/yksikot/erillislaitokset/pei/Documents/BRE2011/
BREArctic%2030.11.2011.pdf
Wezeman, S. (2012) “Military Capabilities in the Arctic,” SIPRI Background
Paper, March.
Bergh, K. and Oldberg, I. (2011) “The New Arctic: Building Cooperation in the
Face of Emerging Challenges,” SIPRI Conference Report, 26 April. http://www.
sipri.org/research/security/arctic/arcticpublications/conference-paper-26-april
Bergh, K. (2011) ”Arktis Kräver Brett Samarbete,” Folk och Försvar, 14
June. http://www.folkochforsvar.se/index.php/debatt_reader/items/kristoferbergh-pa-sipri-arktis-kraever-brett-samarbete.html
Bergh, K. (2011) “Arctic cooperation must become more inclusive,” Essay
(published in July-August issue of SIPRI Newsletter). http://www.sipri.org/
media/newsletter/essay/julyaugust11
Bergh, K. (2011) ”Sveriges Exkluderande Attityd Ökar Spänningarna i
Arktis,” SVT Debatt, 10 November.

Context of its Eurasian Security Policies,” Paper presented at the 2012 Annual
Convention of the International Studies Association, San Diego, USA.
Jakobson, L. (3 April 2012) “China and the Arctic: Cautious but Determined,”
Paper presented at the 2012 Annual Convention of the International Studies
Association, San Diego, USA.
Preparing for and Responding to Disturbance:
Arctic Lessons for Sweden
Publications
Keskitalo E.C.H., Klenk, N., Bullock, R., Smith, A.L. and Bazely, D.R. (2011)
“Preparing for and Responding to Disturbance: Examples from the Forest
Sector in Sweden and Canada” Forests 2(2):505-524.
In press
Vuojala-Magga, T. (2012) “The Road to the North – Passage of Encounters and
Emotions: Encounters between Sámi and Finns in the Inari and Teno River Areas
as Depicted in Poetry and Oral Tradition” Arctic Anthropology (June/July).
Works in progress
Bullock, R., Keskitalo, E.C.H., Vuojala-Magga, T., Reed, M. and Laszlo Ambjörnsson,
E. Article in preparation: “Understanding government and industry responses
to economic crises in northern forest regions: Cases and Lessons from Canada,
Sweden and Finland.”
Keskitalo, C. and Southcott, C. (2014) article in preparation “Globalization”
to be published in Nymand Larsen, J. and Fondahl, G. (eds.) Arctic Human
Development Report II. University of Akureyri, Akureyri.
Keskitalo, E.C.H., Malmberg, G., Westin, K., Wiberg, U., Pettersson, Ö, and
Müller, D.K. article in preparation “Contrasting Arctic and mainstream Swedish
descriptions of northern Sweden: views from established domestic research.”
Keskitalo, E.C.H. (2013) chapter “Sweden and the Arctic Policy Context:
Possibilities for new wine in old bottles” to be published in Murray, R.W. and
Nuttall, A.D. (eds.) International Security and the Arctic: Examining the
Theories and Policies of Circumpolar Politics. Cambria Press.
Keskitalo, E.C.H. (2013) chapter “Introduction” to be published in Keskitalo,
E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and
Extreme Events at the Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Keskitalo, E.C.H. and Åkermark, J. (2013) chapter “Reviewing the literature
on adaptation in water management“ to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.)
Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme
Events at the Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Keskitalo, E.C.H. (2013) chapter “Conclusion” to be published in Keskitalo,
E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation
and Extreme Events at the Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Keskitalo, E.C.H. (2013) editorial of book Climate Change and Flood Risk
Management: Adaptation and Extreme Events at the Local Level. Edward
Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Keskitalo, E.C.H., Pettersson, M., Davies, E.J., Vuojala-Magga, T. and Laszlo
Ambjörnsson, E. article in preparation “Agenda-setting on forest pests in Canada,
Sweden, and Finland: avoiding beetle outbreaks”
Massie, M., Åkermark, J., Vola, J. and Almstedt, Å. (2013) chapter “Differences
in hazard response frameworks in different countries: examples from Canada,
Sweden and Finland” to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change
and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme Events at the
Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Massie, M. and Reed, M. (2013) chapter “Flooding in the Saskatchewan River
Delta: community response within an agenda-setting framework in Canada’s
boreal forest” to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change and
Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme Events at the Local
Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Tennberg, M., Keskitalo, E.C.H. and Vola, J. article in preparation “Political
economy of storms: Finnish and Swedish lessons for the Arctic.”
Turunen, M., Oksanen, P., Vuojala-Magga, T. Markkula, I., and Sutinen, M.L.
(submitted to Polar) “Ecological Impacts of Winter Feeding of Reindeer in the
Sub-Arctic. Insights from a feeding experiment.”
Scholten, P. (2013) chapter “The naturalisation of flood risk in the present and
future: a case from the Netherlands” to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.)
Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme
Events at the Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Vulturius, G. (2013) chapter “Disentangling and relating different forms of
learning: Policy learning, upscaling, downscaling and social learning for flood risk
management in the Dresden region” to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.)
Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme
Events at the Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Vulturius, G. and Keskitalo, C. (2013) chapter “Flood responses in Dresden,
Germany” to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change and Flood
Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme Events at the Local Level.
Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Vuojala-Magga, T. and Vola, J. (2013) chapter “Living with and from the Ivalo
River: resonating structures of flood protection and prevention in the municipality
of Inari, Finland” to be published in Keskitalo, E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change and
Flood Risk Management: Adaptation and Extreme Events at the Local
Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Vuojala-Magga, T., Turunen, M., Suominen, O. and Keskitalo, E.C.H. article
in preparation “Is the human being the key constructor of the fell areas The
question of power relationships of reindeer, reindeer herders and moths in the
birch tree line of Paistunturi, Finnish Lapland.”
Åkermark, J., Keskitalo, E.C.H., and Vola, J. (2013) chapter ”Flood response
in Swedish/Finnish cooperation on the Torne river” to be published in Keskitalo,
E.C.H. (ed.) Climate Change and Flood Risk Management: Adaptation
and Extreme Events at the Local Level. Edward Elgar: Cheltenham, UK.
Presentations
Keskitalo, E.C.H. (26 June 2011) “Sweden and the Arctic Policy Context” 7th
International Congress of Arctic Social Sciences (IASSA), Akureyri, Iceland.
Vuojala-Magga, T. (October 2011) “Niche Construction: mountain birch
trees, autumnal and winter moths, reindeer and reindeer herders” Arctic Centre
seminar, Arctic Centre, Rovaniemi, Finland.
Vuojala-Magga, T. and Tennberg, M. (15 November 2011) “Living with and
from the Ivalo River –translating local knowledge” Climate change in the
Barents region workshop, Arctic Centre, Rovaniemi, Finland.
Massie, M. and Reed, M. (June 17–21 2012) “Flooding in the Saskatchewan
River Delta: comparing 2011 flood responses of two boreal forest communities
in western Canada” ISSRM 2012: Linking the North and the South: Responding
to Environmental Change. The 18th International Symposium on Society and
Resource Management (ISSRM), Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Massie, M. and Reed, M. (29–30 September 2012) “Place, Time, and ‘Deep
Research’ in Environmental and Canadian studies” Paper to be presented
at “Beyond the Culture of Nature: Rethinking Canadian and Environmental
Studies” University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Massie, M. (October 2012) “Divergent Narratives of the Saskatchewan River
Delta” Under Western Skies 2: Climate, Culture, and Change in Western North
America. Calgary.
Media
Keskitalo, C. (8 December 2010) Presentation of Mistra Arctic Futures project
“Preparing for and responding to disturbance: Arctic lessons for Sweden”
Sveriges Radio Västerbotten (SR P4), (radio broadcast, approximately 7 minutes).
“Vanligare med extremt väder. Carina Keskitalo studerar beredskapen i
Västerbotten” Article in Västerbottens Folkblad, 28 December 2010. [presentation
of Keskitalo’s research including the Mistra Arctic Futures project in regional daily
paper].
From Resource Hinterland to Global Pleasure Periphery
Assessing the Role of Tourism for Sustainable Development
in Arctic Communities
Publications
Grenier, A. and Müller, D.K. (eds.) (2011) Polar Tourism: A Tool for Regional
Development. Montreal: Presses de l’Université du Québec.
Müller, D.K. (2011) chapter “Polar Tourism for Regional Development”
in Grenier, A. and Müller, D.K. (eds.) Polar Tourism: A Tool for Regional
Development. Montreal: Presses de l’Université du Québec.
Müller, D.K. (2011) chapter “Tourism development in Europe’s ‘last
wilderness’: an assessment of nature-based tourism in Swedish Lapland.”
in Grenier, A. and Müller, D.K. (eds.) Polar Tourism: A Tool for Regional
Development. Montreal: Presses de l’Université du Québec.
In press
Brouder P. and Lundmark, L. (2012) chapter “A (ski) trip into the future: effective
adaptation to climate change in Polar Sweden in 2040 through Arctic Tourism
Innovation Systems” to be published in Müller, D.K., Lundmark, L. and Lemelin,
R.H. (eds.), Issues in Polar Tourism: Communities, Environments, Politics.
Amsterdam: Springer (accepted).
Müller, D.K. (2012) chapter “Hibernating economic decline Tourism and labor
market change in Europe’s northern periphery” to be published in Visser, G.E. and
Ferreira, S. (eds.) Crisis and Tourism. London: Routledge (accepted).
Müller, D.K. (2012) chapter “National parks for tourism development in
sub-Arctic areas – curse or blessing The case of a proposed national park in
northern Sweden” to be published in Müller, D.K., Lundmark, L. and Lemelin,
R.H. (eds.), Issues in Polar Tourism: Communities, Environments, Politics.
Amsterdam: Springer (accepted).
Müller, D.K., Lundmark, L. and Lemelin, R.H. (2012) chapter “Introduction:
New Issues in Polar Tourism” to be published in Müller, D.K., Lundmark, L. and
Lemelin, R.H. (eds.), Issues in Polar Tourism: Communities, Environments,
Politics. Amsterdam: Springer (accepted).
PAGE 68 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 69

Works in review
Brouder, P. (2012) chapter “Creative outposts: local impacts of Arctic tourism
innovation” in Maher, P.T. and Lemelin, R.H. (eds.), From Talk to Action:
How Tourism is Changing the Polar Regions. Thunder Bay: Centre for
Northern Studies Press.
de la Barre, S. (2012) chapter “Identifying Factors that Sustain Interest
in Tourism Development during a Mining Boom: The Case of Norrbotten
(Sweden)” in Maher, P.T. and Lemelin, R.H. (eds.) From Talk to Action: How
Tourism is Changing the Polar Regions. Thunder Bay: Centre for Northern
Studies Press.
de la Barre, S. and Brouder, P. (2012) “Consuming Stories: Placing Food in
the Arctic Tourism Experience” Journal of Heritage Tourism.
Lundmark, L. and Müller, D.K. (2012) chapter “Advancing tourism
research in the Arctic: The Arctic Tourism innovation system (ATIS)” in
Maher, P.T. and Lemelin, R.H. (eds.) From Talk to Action: How Tourism is
Changing the Polar Regions. Thunder Bay: Centre for Northern Studies
Press.
Müller, D.K. (2012) chapter “Arctic tourism – travel into a remote, peripheral
or marginal region” in Maher, P.T. and Lemelin, R.H. (eds.) From Talk to
Action: How Tourism is Changing the Polar Regions. Thunder Bay: Centre
for Northern Studies Press.
Müller, D.K. (2012) chapter “Hibernating economic decline Tourism and
labor market change in Europe’s northern periphery.” in Visser, G.E. and
Ferreira, S. (eds.) Crisis and Tourism London: Routledge.
Müller, D., Lundmark, L., de la Barre, S., Pashkevich, A. and Heldt-Cassel, S.
(2011) ”Role of tourism development for the sustainable development of the
indigenous communities of Arctic” (in Russian) presented at the International
Tourism Forum ”Tourism Development in the North” UNWTO, Ministry
of Youth Affairs, Sports and Tourism of the Arkhangelsk region, 25-28
May 2011.
Pashkevich, A. (2012) chapter “Circumpolar Indigenous Tourism and
Empowerment in a Context of Russian Arctic Territories” in Maher, P.T. and
Lemelin, R.H. (eds.) From Talk to Action: How Tourism is Changing the
Polar Regions. Thunder Bay: Centre for Northern Studies Press.
Works in progress
Müller, D.K. and Brouder, P. (2013) “Tourism businesses, innovations and
local labor markets in northern communities: the case of Jokkmokk, Sweden”
(abstract submitted to the Arctic Chair programme).
Presentations
Brouder P., Lundmark L. (23 September 2011) “A (ski) trip into the future: Climate
change, tourism & entrepreneurship in polar Sweden in 2040” paper presented
at the 20th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality Research, Rovaniemi,
Finland.
de la Barre, S. (22 September 2011) “Exploring tourism development in mining
intense regions” paper presented at the 20th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and
Hospitality Research, Rovaniemi, Finland.
de la Barre, S. (15 March 2012) ” ’Tourism! Tourism! Tourism!’ ... and then
along came the mine...” presentation to Department of Geography and Economic
History, Umeå University, Sweden.
de la Barre, S. (17 April 2012) “Identifying Factors that Sustain Interest in
Tourism Development during a Mining Boom: The Case of Norrbotten (Sweden)”
paper presented at the 3rd Conference of the International Polar Tourism Research
Network (IPTRN) From Talk to Action: How Tourism is Changing the Polar
Regions, Nain, Nunatsiavut, Canada.
de la Barre, S. (23 April 2012) “Riding the Boom: Entrepreneurs and their
role in sustaining tourism development in Arctic regions during intense mining
investment periods” poster presented at IPY, Montreal, Canada.
de la Barre, S. and Brouder, P. (24 April 2012) “Consuming Stories: Placing Food
in the Arctic Tourism Experience” poster presented at IPY, Montreal, Canada.
Engström, C. (28 February 2012) “The battlefield of the mountain” paper
presented at the Annual Meeting of Association of American Geographers, New
York, USA.
Heldt-Cassel, S. and Pashkevich, A. (23 September 2011) “Creation and recreation
of mining heritage – lessons from Kiruna in Northern Sweden” paper
presented at the 20th Nordic Symposium in Tourism and Hospitality Research,
Rovaniemi, Finland.
Lundmark, L. and Müller, D.K. (17 April 2012) “Advancing tourism research in
the Arctic: The Arctic Tourism innovation system (ATIS)” paper presented at the
3rd Conference of the International Polar Tourism Research Network (IPTRN)
From Talk to Action: How Tourism is Changing the Polar Regions, Nain,
Nunatsiavut, Canada.
Lundmark, L. and Pashkevich, A. (24 April 2012) “Experiences and processes
regarding nature protection and nature-based tourism in the Arctic” poster
presented at IPY, Montreal, Canada.
Müller, D.K. (25 June 2011) “National Parks for Tourism Development in Polar
Areas – Curse or Blessing The Case of a Proposed National Park in Northern
Sweden” paper presented at the ICASS VII: Circumpolar Perspectives in Global
Dialogue: Social Sciences beyond the International Polar Year, Akureyri, Iceland.
Müller, D.K. (23 September 2011) “Tourism, Labor Markets and Community
Change in Northern Sweden”, paper presented at the 20th Nordic Symposium in
Tourism and Hospitality Research, Rovaniemi, Finland.
Müller, D.K., Lundmark, L., de la Barre, S., Pashkevich, A., Heldt-Cassel, S. (25-28
May 2011) “Role of tourism development for the sustainable development of the
indigenous communities of Arctic” presented at the International Tourism Forum
”Tourism Development in the North, UNWTO, Ministry of Youth Affairs, Sports and
Tourism of the Arkhangelsk region, Arkhangelsk, Russia.
Müller, D.K. (26 March 2012) “Tourism and the definition of the Arctic” paper
presented at Polarforum, Stockholm.
Müller, D.K. (27 March 2012) “Beyond the boom: reflections on mining, tourism
and regional development” presentation at the Canadian Embassy, Stockholm.
Müller, D.K. (18 April 2012) “Arctic tourism – travel into a remote, peripheral
or marginal region” paper presented at the 3rd Conference of the International
Polar Tourism Research Network (IPTRN) From talk to action: How tourism is
changing the Polar Regions, Nain, Nunatsiavut, Canada.
Müller, D.K. (24 April 2012) “Die schwedische “Pleasure Periphery” - Gedanken
zur Entwicklung des Tourismus in Nordschweden” invited seminar, Department of
Geography and Geology, Julius-Maximilian University, Würzburg, Germany.
Pashkevich, A. (12 April 2011) “For few or for many Examples from the
Destination Development of Kiruna, Northern Sweden” presented at the Annual
Meeting of the Association of American Geographers, Seattle, USA.
Pashkevich, A. (26-27 May 2011) “Arctic heritage use as a teaching material
at the advanced level in high education” presented at the round table discussion
Improving the System of Training Managers for Tourism and Hospitality Sector,
Government of Arkhangelsk Region, International Tourism Forum Tourism
Development in the North, UNWTO, Ministry of Youth Affairs, Sports and
Tourism of the Arkhangelsk region, Arkhangelsk, Russia.
Pashkevich, A. (26-27 May 2011) “Cultural heritage of the northern territories:
some aspects of its preservation and use. Examples from Kiruna, Northern
Sweden” presented at the conference Historical and cultural heritage of the Arctic,
Federal museum of Arctic’s named after Borisov, Barents forum, Arkhangelsk,
Russia.
Pashkevich, A. (24 February 2012) “Rejuvenation of tourism space: myth or
reality Looking at the examples from the Russian Arctic Communities” paper
presented at the Annual Meeting of Association of American Geographers, New
York, USA.
Pashkevich, A. (17 April 2012) “Circumpolar Indigenous Tourism and
Empowerment in a Context of Russian Arctic Territories” paper presented at the
3rd Conference of the International Polar Tourism Research Network (IPTRN)
From talk to action: How tourism is changing the Polar Regions, Nain,
Nunatsiavut, Canada.
Upcoming presentations
Müller, D.K. (26-30 August 2012) “National parks and tourism labor markets in
Arctic Sweden” paper to be presented at the 26th International Geographical
Union Congress, Cologne, Germany.
Public lectures and speeches (non-academic audience)
de la Barre, S. (December 2011) Presentation to Countryside Guide Training
students at Tornedalen Nature Guides Program, Överkalix, Sweden.
de la Barre, S. (date TBD; likely in June 2012) invited by Government of Yukon
to give a presentation to the Department of Economic Development and the
Department of Tourism and Culture.
Müller, D.K. (27 September 2011) ”Turism, gruvor och lokal utveckling”
presentation at the seminar Från EU till Tärnaby, Vuxenskola, Tärnaby, Sweden.
Pashkevich, A. (6 December 2011) “Rejuvenation of tourism space. Tourism
development in the Arctic: how it is done” open lecture for the tourism
management students of National Lesgaft Sport University, St. Petersburg, as a
part of the ERASMUS exchange activities.
Pashkevich, A. (29 March 2012) “How to brand Russian Arctic communities
Lessons from Nenets Autonomous okrug” open lecture for the tourism/human
geography students of Northern (Arctic) Federal University, Arkhangelsk (Northernwest
Russia) as a part of the planned field trip to Nenets Autonomous okrug.
The project in media
Northland ger Pajala ny framtid (Bergsmannen 195 5/11, p. 18-22). A report on
a mining project that also featured parts of the research team on a field trip to
Pajala including comments by Suzanne de la Barre.
Meeting with the representatives from the tourism business of Middle part of
Sweden (Our project’s poster was presented at the meeting 16th February 2012)
http://www.du.se/en/About-Dalarna-University/Whats-happening/News/Tema-
Tourism-Meets-Representatives-from-the-Tourist-Industry/
PAGE 70 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 71

ANNUAL REPORT PROGRAMME LEVEL
ANNUAL REPORT PER PROJECT
Organization: Swedish Polar Research Secretariat
Responsible: Sofia Rickberg
2011
INCOME
1. Arctic Games: Interactive Interactive development and
application of a transdisciplinary framework for sustainable
governance options of Arctic natural resources.
Organization: Enveco Miljöekonomi AB
Responsible: Tore Söderqvist
2. Assessing Arctic Futures: Voices, Resources and
Governance
Organization: KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Responsible: Sverker Sörlin
3. Arctic Futures: Managing Competition and Promoting
Cooperation
Organization: Swedish International Peace Research
Institute (SIPRI )
Responsible: Neil Melvin
Contributions from Mistra * 632 800
Other income -
TOTAL INCOME 632 800
EXPENSES
Personnel 515 904
Travel 137 218
Supplies 4 472
Other operational expenses 60 430
DIRECT EXPENSES 718 025
Overhead including offices ** 127 045
Costs including overhead 845 070
Depreciation -
Purchased services -
TOTAL EXPENSES 845 070
BALANCE - 212 270
* Remaining contributions of 550 000 SEK for 2011
requisitioned in 2012
** Overhead: Maximum allowed is 35% of personnel costs
2011
INCOME
Contributions from Mistra 1 975 000
Other income*
Polar Research Secretariat 4 616
TOTAL INCOME 1 979 616
EXPENSES
Personnel, per partner:
Enveco Miljöekonomi AB 679 000
CEFIR, Moscow 150 000
KTH 279 000
NORUT, Tromsø 43 694
Stockholm University 149 033
University of Nordland, Bodø 55 541
Total personnel costs 1 356 268
Travel 63 379
Supplies, data collection 204
Other operational expenses
Depreciation
Purchased services -
Office space (direct and indirect)** -
Other indirect expenses** 455 606
2011
INCOME
Contributions from Mistra 2 323 500
Other income* 7 088
TOTAL INCOME 2 330 588
EXPENSES
Personnel 408 930
Travel 48 931
Supplies 12 739
Other operational expenses 23 785
DIRECT EXPENSES 494 386
Overhead including offices** 236 191
Costs including overhead 730 577
Other contributions*** 760 000
Depreciation***
Purchased services***
TOTAL EXPENSES 1 490 577
BALANCE 840 011
* Per source
** Overhead: Maximum allowed is 35% of personnel costs
2011
INCOME
Contributions from Mistra 2 009 455
Other income* -
TOTAL INCOME 2 009 455
EXPENSES
Personnel 537 551
Travel 58 984
Supplies -
Other operational expenses 227 891
DIRECT EXPENSES 824 426
Overhead including offices** 123 664
Costs including overhead 948 090
Depreciation*** -
Purchased services*** -
TOTAL EXPENSES 948 090
BALANCE 1 061 365
* Per source
** Overhead: Maximum allowed is 35% of personnel costs
TOTAL EXPENSES 1 875 457
*** No overhead
*** No overhead
BALANCE 104 159
* Per source
** Overhead: Maximum allowed is 35% of personnel costs
PAGE 72 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011 PAGE 73

4. Preparing for and Responding to Disturbance:
Arctic Lessons for Sweden
Organization: Umeå University
Responsible: Carina Keskitalo
2011
INCOME
Contributions from Mistra 1 358 000
Other income* 717
TOTAL INCOME 1 358 717
5. From Resource Hinterland to Global Pleasure
Periphery Assessing the Role of Tourism for Sustainable
Development in Arctic Communities
Organization: Umeå University
Responsible: Dieter Müller
2011
INCOME
Contributions from Mistra 2 500 000
Other income* (interest, UmU) 2 770
TOTAL INCOME 2 502 770
EXPENSES
Personnel 480 383
Travel 129 326
Supplies 2 512
Other operational expenses 14 717
Depreciation -
Purchased services -
Office space (direct and indirect)** 1 668
Other indirect expenses** 95 788
EXPENSES
Personnel 510 524
Travel 107 650
Supplies 2 398
Other operational expenses 18 670
Depreciation -
Purchased services -
Office space (direct and indirect)** -
Other indirect expenses** 178 683
TOTAL EXPENSES 724 394
TOTAL EXPENSES 817 925
BALANCE 634 323
* Per source
** Overhead: Maximum allowed is 35% of personnel costs
BALANCE 1 684 845
* Per source
** Overhead: Maximum allowed is 35% of personnel costs
PAGE 74 ARCTIC FUTURES 2011

Mistra Arctic Futures in a Global Context is a research programme comprised of five
projects rooted in the social sciences and humanities. The Swedish Foundation for Strategic
Environmental Research (Mistra) has allocated 38 million Swedish Crowns in investment capital
to this programme for the period 2011 through 2013, with the aim of creating a broad and
robust knowledge base, powerful and flexible analytical tools, and an insightful stakeholder
dialogue regarding the future of the Arctic.
www.arcticfutures.se
www.mistra.org
341 369