Tailpipe Rule - GlobalWarming.org

Federal Register / Vol. 75, No. 88 / Friday, May 7, 2010 / Rules and Regulations
25347
TABLE I.C.2–2—EPA’S ESTIMATED 2012–2016 MODEL YEAR LIFETIME FUEL SAVED AND GHG EMISSIONS AVOIDED—
Continued
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total
Light Trucks ...... Fuel (billion gallons) ...................................... 3 .3 5 .0 6 .6 9 .0 12 .2 36 .1
Fuel (billion barrels) ...................................... 0 .08 0 .12 0 .16 0 .21 0 .29 0 .86
CO 2 EQ (mmt) .............................................. 39 .6 61 .7 81 .6 111 147 441
Combined .. Fuel (billion gallons) ...................................... 7 .3 10 .5 13 .9 19 .5 26 .5 77 .7
Fuel (billion barrels) ...................................... 0 .17 0 .25 0 .33 0 .46 0 .63 1 .85
CO 2 EQ (mmt) .............................................. 88 .8 130 174 244 325 962
Table I.C.2–3 shows EPA’s estimated
lifetime discounted benefits for all
vehicles sold in model years 2012–2016.
Although EPA estimated the benefits
associated with four different values of
a one ton GHG reduction ($5, $21, $35,
$65), for the purposes of this overview
presentation of estimated benefits EPA
is showing the benefits associated with
one of these marginal values, $21 per
ton of CO 2 , in 2007 dollars and 2010
emissions. Table I.C.2–3 presents
benefits based on the $21 value. Section
III.H presents the four marginal values
used to estimate monetized benefits of
GHG reductions and Section III.H
presents the program benefits using
each of the four marginal values, which
represent only a partial accounting of
total benefits due to omitted climate
change impacts and other factors that
are not readily monetized. The values in
the table are discounted values for each
model year of vehicles throughout their
projected lifetimes. The benefits include
all benefits considered by EPA such as
fuel savings, GHG reductions, PM
benefits, energy security and other
externalities such as reduced refueling
and accidents, congestion and noise.
The lifetime discounted benefits are
shown for one of four different social
cost of carbon (SCC) values considered
by EPA. The values in Table I.C.2–3 do
not include costs associated with new
technology required to meet the GHG
standard.
TABLE I.C.2–3—EPA’S ESTIMATED 2012–2016 MODEL YEAR LIFETIME DISCOUNTED BENEFITS ASSUMING THE $21/TON
SCC VALUE abc
[Billions of 2007 dollars]
Discount rate
Model year
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total
3% ............................................................ $21.8 $32.0 $42.8 $60.8 $83.3 $240
7% ............................................................ 17.4 25.7 34.2 48.6 66.4 192
a
The benefits include all benefits considered by EPA such as the economic value of reduced fuel consumption and accompanying savings in
refueling time, climate-related economic benefits from reducing emissions of CO 2 (but not other GHGs), economic benefits from reducing emissions
of PM and other air pollutants that contribute to its formation, and reductions in energy security externalities caused by U.S. petroleum consumption
and imports. The analysis also includes disbenefits stemming from additional vehicle use, such as the economic damages caused by
accidents, congestion and noise.
b
Note that net present value of reduced GHG emissions is calculated differently than other benefits. The same discount rate used to discount
the value of damages from future emissions (SCC at 5, 3, and 2.5 percent) is used to calculate net present value of SCC for internal consistency.
Refer to Section III.H for more detail.
c
Monetized GHG benefits exclude the value of reductions in non-CO 2 GHG emissions (HFC, CH 4 and N 2O) expected under this final rule. Although
EPA has not monetized the benefits of reductions in these non-CO 2 emissions, the value of these reductions should not be interpreted as
zero. Rather, the reductions in non-CO 2 GHGs will contribute to this rule’s climate benefits, as explained in Section III.F.2. The SCC TSD notes
the difference between the social cost of non-CO 2 emissions and CO 2 emissions, and specifies a goal to develop methods to value non-CO 2
emissions in future analyses. Also, as noted in Section III.H, SCC increases over time. The $21/ton value applies to 2010 emissions and grows
larger over time.
Table I.C.2–4 shows EPA’s estimated
lifetime fuel savings, lifetime CO 2
emission reductions, and the monetized
net present values of those fuel savings
and CO 2 emission reductions. The
gallons of fuel and CO 2 emission
reductions are projected lifetime values
for all vehicles sold in the model years
2012–2016. The estimated fuel savings
in billions of barrels and the GHG
reductions in million metric tons of CO 2
shown in Table I.C.2–4 are totals for the
five model years throughout their
projected lifetime and are not
discounted. The monetized values
shown in Table I.C.2–4 are the summed
values of the discounted monetized-fuel
savings and monetized-CO 2 reductions
for the five model years 2012–2016
throughout their lifetimes. The
monetized values in Table I.C.2–4
reflect both a 3 percent and a 7 percent
discount rate as noted.
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TABLE I.C.2–4—EPA’S ESTIMATED 2012–2016 MODEL YEAR LIFETIME FUEL SAVINGS, CO 2 EMISSION REDUCTIONS, AND
DISCOUNTED MONETIZED BENEFITS AT A 3% DISCOUNT RATE
[Monetized values in 2007 dollars]
Amount
$ value
(billions)
Fuel savings ...................................................................................................... 1.8 billion barrels ................................. $182, 3% discount rate.
$142, 7% discount rate.
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