Annual Report, FY2011 - UHERO - University of Hawaii

Annual Report, FY2011
December 1, 2011

December 1, 2011 2
UHERO Annual Report, FY2011
©2011 University of Hawai‘i Economic Research Organization.
All rights reserved.
2424 Maile Way, Room 540 • Honolulu, Hawai‘i 96822
(808) 956-7605 • uhero@hawaii.edu
uhero.hawaii.edu

December 1, 2011 3
Message from the Executive Director
The past year has brought the beginnings of growth to the Hawaii economy and fresh new developments for UHERO. We have
undertaken important new research, we have added two new faculty members to the UHERO team, and we have presented a new
award-winning public face to the community.
This summer we were lucky enough to welcome Dr. Peter Fuleky and Dr. Inna Cintina to the UHERO team. Dr. Fuleky holds
a Ph.D in Economics from the University of Washington, and was most recently a Postdoctoral Fellow with UHERO. He brings
expertise in simulation-based estimation, indirect inference, and mixed frequency time series analysis to UHERO. Dr. Fuleky is
a joint hire with the Department of Economics, where he will teach graduate and undergraduate forecasting and econometrics
courses. Dr. Cintina received her Ph.D in Economics from Clemson University in May of 2011, and brings a diversity research
interests to UHERO, including labor economics, health economics, economics of education, and public policy. These young additions
to the UHERO family will round out a diversity of possibilities for new research related to Hawaii’s economy.
UHERO is constantly improving and expanding website features to make www.uhero.hawaii.edu an excellent resource for its
users and visitors, and is proud to announce that the website received the Association for University Business and Economic Research’s
(AUBER) 2011 Website Award. The AUBER Website Award honors the center whose website effectively and efficiently
communicates with its constituents in terms of design, content, organization and more. Recent additions to the website include a
new chart gallery, the UHERO Blog, with the latest analysis of the Hawai’i economy and the addition of the UHERO forum on
Facebook. An important feature of the website is the UHERO Data Portal, a free online resource that provides access to the most
up to date information on a wide array of economic and social indicators for the State and County economies. The Data Portal is
made possible through the generous support of sponsors, including lead support from the Bank of Hawaii. This support is a key
factor in UHERO’s ability to maintain the high quality level of research and service that it does. Content from weekly UHERO
appearances on KITV, and forecast report summaries available for public viewing can be accessed on the site as well.
In the 2011 fiscal year, we made new strides in economic research that will inform policymaking in Hawaii in coming years. This
research builds on our core strengths in the analysis of economic, environmental, and human resource issues, while extending our
activities in exciting new directions. One example is research conducted by our Energy and Greenhouse Gas Solutions (EGGS)
team, led by Dr. Denise Konan, which looks at the determinants of Hawaii’s greenhouse gas emissions and potential policy
responses. Project Environment continues environmental studies on sustainable tourism in Hawaii, characterizing the natural
resource management sector in Hawaii, the impacts of invasive species such as Ohia rust, costs and benefits of rodent eradication,
sustainable management of Hawaii’s groundwater aquifers and forests, and economic determinants of introductions of invasive
species around the world. New topics under the Forecast Project include research on mixed-frequency models of visitor spending
and the role that airfare movements play in determining the number of visitor to the state. The common theme across all UHERO
research is policy relevance—what can we learn about our state and our world that can support better policy decision making?
Overall, during FY2011 nine UHERO faculty or fellows served as PIs on over 20 funded projects resulting in approximately $1.6
million in funding. These funds supported four staff members, and they also supported UHERO’s central educational mission.
UHERO provided financial support and opportunities for eleven graduate assistants, and we were able to support three undergraduate
interns, who received real world research experience.
The UHERO Forecast Project, headed by Dr. Byron Gangnes, continued to play a crucial role over the past year providing detailed
forecasts that help businesses, policy makers and the public make plans in an uncertain economic environment. UHERO
researchers provided hundreds of hours of commentary to the press and presentations to civic groups and policymakers. Led by
1
This report focuses on research initiatives underway during FY2011. As result, the dollar amounts reported here include some funds awarded in earlier periods.
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Dr. Sumner La Croix, we continued our weekly “UHERO Report,” segments on KITV news, providing accessible explanation
and analysis of emerging economic issues that we hope will build broader understanding throughout the local community.
We feel privileged to be able to play the role we do in Hawaii, and we feel blessed to enjoy the support of the University of Hawaii
and our generous Sponsors too numerous to mention (but see the list on page 4.) We look forward to your continuing support over
the coming year.
With Aloha,
Dr. Carl S. Bonham, Executive Director
uhero.hawaii.edu

uhero thanks the following sponsors:
Kaweki‘u - the topmost summit
The Bank of Hawaii
Kilohana - a lookout, high point
Hawaii Electric Light Company. Ltd.
Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc.
Maui Electric Company, Ltd.
County of Kaua‘i Office of Economic Development
Kamehameha Schools
Matson Navigation Company
Kuahiwi - a high hill, mountain
American Savings Bank
Central Pacific Bank
Hau`oli Mau Loa
Hawaii Foreign-Trade Zone
Kaiser Permanente Hawai`i
Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority
The Nature Conservancy, Hawaii`i Program
The Pacific Resource Partnership
Servco Pacific, Inc.
Kulia I Ka Nu‘u (literally “Strive for the summit”) is the value of achievement, those who pursue personal
excellence. This was the motto of Hawai‘i’s Queen Kapi‘olani. Sponsors help UHERO to continually reach
for excellence as the premier organization dedicated to economic research relevant to Hawai‘i and the Asia
Pacific region.
The UHERO Forecast Project is a community-sponsored research program of the University of Hawai‘i at
Mānoa. The Forecast Project provides the Hawai‘i community with analysis on economic, demographic, and
business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region.
All sponsors receive the full schedule of UHERO reports, as well as other benefits that vary with the level
of financial commitment.
For sponsorship information, browse to http://www.uhero.hawaii.edu.

December 1, 2011 6
UHERO’s mission
UHERO’s mission is to inform public- and private-sector economic decision-making through quantitative and analytical research
with a particular focus on the economies of Hawai’i and the Asia-Pacific region. UHERO provides a forum for interaction between
scholars, public policy makers and business leaders on economic policy choices and facilitates the collaborative efforts of
UH economists with other scholars. UHERO research associates support this mission by conducting substantive research which
is widely disseminated to the public.
The uhero team
UHERO faculty includes Carl Bonham, Kimberly Burnett, Peter Fuleky, and Inna Cintina. UHERO staff includes Shih-Ling
Chang, Craig Coleman, Ben Trevino, and Christopher Wada.
UHERO Research Fellows are the Principal Investigators and Co-PIs on extramurally funded research projects administratively
supported by UHERO. Research Fellows participate in UHERO governance and share administrative costs and benefits. Current
Research Fellows include Makena Coffman, Byron Gangnes, Denise Konan, Sumner LaCroix, Sang-Hyop Lee, John Lynham,
and James Roumasset.
UHERO Affiliate Researchers are engaged in research or service that supports UHERO’s mission. Current Affiliate Researchers
include Paul Bernstein, Tim Halliday, Hui He, James Mak, Ilan Noy, Katerina Sherstyuk, and Nori Tarui.
UHERO graduate research assistants include Lauren Armstrong, Chris DeVenecia, Aaron Mann, Olga Moulton, Iman Nasseri,
Babak Saadat, Atsushi Shibata, Kanae Tokunaga, Sherilyn Wee, Cynthia Ying, and Qianxue Zhao.
UHERO undergraduate research interns are James Jones, Jonathan Fung, and Candace Skinner.
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December 1, 2011 7
Generous support from UHERO’s Sponsors and Subscribers: $149,100
In FY2011 there were sixteen subscribers to one or more Forecast Project report, and eleven sponsors. Full reports were also
circulated to University leaders, state legislators and several cooperating researchers.
The Forecast Project
Current awards: $161,404
Under the direction of Dr. Byron Gangnes, UHERO’s
Forecast Project undertakes research and analysis on the operation
of the Hawaii economy and key policy challenges.
The Forecast Project provides the Hawaii community with
information and forecasts of economic, demographic, and
business trends in the State and the Asia-Pacific region. The
Forecast Project reporting schedule includes quarterly forecast
updates for the Hawaii economy, an annual forecast report for
the county economies, a semi-annual construction report, and
an annual global outlook report. The UHERO Data Portal
provides public access to an extensive collection of relevant
economic statistics.
Over the years, UHERO research associates have completed
a wide range of studies assessing economic performance
and policy issues for Hawaii. These have included methodological
inquiries into issues such as appropriate forecasting
techniques for tourism and methods for evaluating the impact
of tax and expenditure programs. UHERO has also studied
the potential impact of external economic shocks, such as the
9/11 terror attacks. Forecast Project research recognizes the
unique features of the local economy including the key role of
tourism, Hawaii’s links with developing Asia, and the role of
the state’s dynamic construction and service sectors.
Significant funded research during FY2011 included
(names of Principal Investigators are given in parentheses):
Economic Forecasting for State of Hawaii and its
four counties, Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc. (Bonham/Gangnes).*
2011 marks the thirteenth year of UHE-
RO’s relationship with Hawaiian Electric Company. Since
1998, we have provided long-run economic forecasts used as
inputs into long run planning and sales forecasts for Oahu,
Maui, and Hawaii islands.
UHERO Data Portal (Bonham).* The UHERO Data
Portal is a free online resource that provides access to a wide
array of economic and social indicators for the State and
County economies. During the past fiscal year, UHERO researchers
and staff worked very hard on a complete redesign
of the UHERO data portal. The redesigned site includes more
attractive, easier to use graphs and tables, more data, and an
overall new look and feel. This work is now supported by a
generous contribution from The Bank of Hawaii. The Bank’s
three-year $120,000 commitment will allow for continued
improvement in functionality and coverage of the UHERO/
Bank of Hawaii online data portal.
Metropolitan Area Home Price Forecasting for
more than 300 metro areas in US (quarterly), LPS Applied
Analytics Valuation Solutions (Bonham).* UHE-
RO continues to provide metropolitan home prices forecasts to
LPS for use by their clients and as inputs into their valuation
and scoring for structured mortgage products.
Kauai County Online Data book project, plus economic
forecasts, County of Kauai Office of Economic
Development (Gangnes/Bonham).*
Estimating Visitor Demand, SeaGrant (Bonham)*
This research is prompted by the record high oil prices during
the summer of 2008. This surge in fuel prices and the corre-
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December 1, 2011 8
sponding rise in airfares is often cited as an explanation for the
decline in visitor arrivals to Hawaii during 2008. Yet the academic
tourism literature has little to say about the actual impact
of changing airfares on travel demand. This is partly due
to the lack of reliable data on airfares. Using newly available
airfare data from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau
of Transportations Statistics (BTS). We calculate average
air fares paid from each state in the nation to Hawaii using
the DB1BMarket table from BTS. We combining the airfare
data with other data relevant for modeling tourism demand to
Hawaii by state, and apply state of the art panel methods to
estimate air fare price elasticities for Hawaii travel demand.
Sustainable Coastal Tourism, SeaGrant (Konan)*
Tourism has a tremendous impact on the people of Hawai‘i
and its environment. Visitor expenditures in 2007 comprised
$14 billion or 22 percent of Hawai‘i’s economy and employed
176,200 people in the state. This intimate relationship between
Hawai‘i’s economy and tourism depends on a healthy and sustainable
coastal ecosystem. Indeed it is the diverse and unique
ecosystems of the Hawaiian Islands that inspire so many visitors
to our region. As such, improving the quality of our environment,
restoring habitats and ecosystems, and reducing
the energy and water needed to support tourism will result
in positive impacts on Hawai‘i’s economy. Toward this goal
we seek to collaborate with the tourism industry to promote
sustainability of our natural resources, promotion of healthy
coastal ecosystems, and respect for our indigenous people and
the unique multicultural fabric of our society.
* Continuation of award from FY2010.
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Project Environment
Current awards: $402,101, of which $69,748 was
newly funded in FY2011
Project Environment applies formal economic analysis to
the study of key environmental challenges, including energy
use and global warming, pollution control, water allocation
and pricing, and policy design for the control of invasive species.
Specific applications have included the simultaneous
management of groundwater and watershed conservation,
the economic benefits of environmental resource conservation,
the design of policies for control of Miconia calvescens
and the Brown Treesnake, and methods for measuring sustainable
development. Supporting this applied research has been
foundational analysis that has developed principles of environmental
resource management and sustainability science with
broad application.
Led by Dr. Kimberly Burnett, this research group undertakes
research that articulates interactions between Hawaii’s
natural environment and the state economy. This year the
project began several initiatives to begin to address this goal.
Themes for FY2010 included sustainability science, invasive
species management, clean energy, fisheries, and nutrient
management.
Significant funded research during FY2011 included
(names of Principle Investigators are given in parentheses):
Indicators for Sustainable Coastal Tourism in Hawaii,
SeaGrant (Burnett)
This project will develop a baseline set of indicators for
measuring the sustainability of coastal tourism in Hawai‘i.
This is a joint project with faculty from the School of Travel
Industry Management, the School of Ocean and Earth Science
and Technology, and the School of Hawaiian Knowledge.
We will develop a set of economic, social, biological,
and cultural indicators that can be used to help the tourism
industry, government, the business community, and residents
assess how sustainable this important industry is in our state.
While many of these indicators may already exist, some (especially
on the cultural side) may not be currently monitored. We
believe that developing a solid baseline to begin evaluating the
sustainability of coastal tourism in Hawai‘i will be crucial to
directing future research endeavors towards the most critical
research gaps and questions. Eventually we believe that this
set of indicators could be used to develop a “Tourism Dashboard,”
highlighting how these indicators change and move
together against different economic, social, biological, and
cultural backgrounds. Such Dashboards have been developed
in other destinations and can be useful for guiding policy and
decision making at all levels.
Hawaii Green Growth Synthesis, The Nature Conservancy
and Hau`oli Mau Loa (Burnett)
The purpose of this project is to provide an overview for
decision-makers on the economics of three key sectors essential
for Hawai‘i to transition to a green economy – clean energy,
food security and ecosystem health, with a special emphasis
on natural resources and ecosystem services in Hawai‘i.
This project will review and summarize available information
on what is currently known about the economic importance
of natural resources and ecosystem services in Hawai‘i.
It will also describe the current economic status of the energy
and agriculture sectors in Hawaii.
Kauai Important Agriculture Land, Kauai County
(Burnett)* This is an initiative with the Department of Urban
and Regional Planning (DURP) regarding the designation
of “Important Agricultural Lands” on the island of Kauai.
The identification and designation of Important Agricultural
Lands (IAL) was first proposed at the 1978 Constitutional
Convention and approved by voters in the same year. The
State is required to conserve and protect agricultural lands,
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promote diversified agriculture, increase agricultural self-sufficiency
and assure the availability of agriculturally suitable
lands. In collaboration with DURP, UHERO will be providing
recommendations to Kauai County regarding the placement
of these designations and feedback regarding the policies designed
to incentivize farmers to self-designate their lands as
IAL.
Estimating the Cost of Rodent Control in Hawaii,
Environmental Planning Strategies (Burnett)*
The purpose of this project is to provide a better estimate
of rodent control campaigns in the Hawaiian Islands. We will
use local sources to estimate costs of sustained control efforts
in Hawai‘i. The primary goal is to provide managers with tools
to determine the most cost effective method of suppressing a
population of rats for the protection of a given species at a
given location. Because most conservation benefit associated
with rodent control is derived from these sustained control
campaigns, rather than the isolated eradications, knowing the
cost of these long term campaigns is vital for maximizing benefit
from rodent removal.
Ecosystem Function: Natural, Anthropogenic,
and Invasive Species Contributions to Biogeochemical
Evolution of Groundwaters and Coastal Environments
of West Hawaii, National Science Foundation
(Burnett)*
In collaboration with colleagues from UHM Geology and
Geophysics (Craig Glenn and Henrieta Dulaiova), Thomas
Giambelluca (UHM Geography) and James Roumasset (UHM
Economics), Burnett received funding from the National Science
Foundation to study the interaction between groundwater,
nutrients, and natural and anthropogenic sources on the
Kona coast of Hawaii Island. Groundwater delivers significant
quantities of nutrients, pollutants, heavy metals, and bacteria
directly to the coastal environment. These “unseen” inputs
can pose serious health risks to humans and upset coastal wetland
and adjacent marine ecosystems that cascade throughout
foodwebs and trigger such deleterious environmental effects as
eutrophication, red tides, invasive and nuisance floras on land
and sea, and coastal pollution. Influences may be anthropogenic
or they may be “natural” in the case of invasive species
capable of altering ecosystem processes to the detriment of
other organisms. Through collaboration with scientists from
Geography and Geology, this project investigates the economic
benefits and costs of reducing nutrient load through management
of the various anthropogenic and natural drivers.
Evaluating Policy Options to Reduce the Risk of
New Strains of Ohia Rust in Hawaii, United States
Geological Survey (Burnett).*
Policies designed to protect the environment will inevitably
influence the performance of the state’s economy. Hawaii’s
geographic isolation and abundant endemic biodiversity
makes the state especially prone to economic damages resulting
from invasive pests and diseases. UHERO received funded
from the US Geological Survey to examine the consequences
of various policies designed to protect the state from the arrival
of Ohia Rust, a strain of the Neotropical rust fungus Puccinia
psidii that was discovered on native ohia in early 2005.
The ohia plant, Metrosiderospolymorpha, comprises nearly
80% of the native Hawaiian forests and covers approximately
400,000 hectares on the Hawaiian Islands. It provides habitat
to a wide range of Hawaiian fauna including a majority of its
native bird species. In collaboration with Dr. Lloyd Loope of
USGS, UHERO will assess the economic costs and benefits
of a quarantine program versus the costs and benefits of a
complete ban on affected plants, and compare these policies
to continuing “business as usual,” with no restrictions on high
risk plants.
Assessing Hawaii’s Clean Energy Options, U.S. Department
of Energy in collaboration with the Hawaii
Natural Energy Institute (Coffman).*
This project aims to inform the state and national policymaking
process in regards to clean energy for electricity. Ha-
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December 1, 2011 11
waii recently passed the most stringent Renewable Portfolio
Standard for electricity in the country. This project builds a
detailed model of Hawaii’s electric sector, projecting to the
year 2030 under alternative oil price scenarios, that integrates
the existing system with future renewable energy types including
wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuels. The impacts are
assessed based on their greenhouse gas emissions and contribution
to the overall economy in the form of jobs, resident
welfare, and gross state product.
Administering Catch Share Program, NOAA (Lynham)*
We created a unique database that describes the method
used to allocate shares in nearly every major catch share fishery
in the world. This database should hopefully prove to be a
useful reference tool for policymakers who are interested in the
types of methods that have been used to assign catch shares.
The main approaches used to allocate catch shares include:
(i) auctions, (ii) equal allocation (iii) historical catch records
and (iv) vessel- or gear-based rules. The entire database will
be made publicly available. Based on our estimates, at least
81% of the major catch share fisheries in the world allocated
shares on the basis of historical catch, 6% used equal shares,
2% used auctions, another 2% used vessel-based rules and the
allocation method currently remains unknown for 9% of the
fisheries in the database.
Exploring Socio-economic and Ecological Dimensions
of Catch Shares, UCSB (Lynham)*
This project addressed important questions relating to
catch share fisheries management. Costello et al. (2008) provided
evidence that switching to a catch share system halts the
globally observed trend towards complete collapse. This paper
was criticized for failing to take account of the effect of introducing
a Total Allowable Catch at the same time as catch
shares are introduced. This project attempted to address this
criticism. The results will be published in the Annual Review
of Resource Economics.
$381,554 Submitted proposal pending/unfunded
projects in FY 2011:
Adapting Water and Watershed Management to
Climate Change in a Hydrological Basin, National Science
Foundation (Burnett)
The proposed research would develop and apply an operational
methodology for the optimal integrated water management
of a well-defined hydrological basin, the Ko‘olau Mountain
Watershed area. The transdisciplinary model combines
several fields of study including climatology, statistics, forest
hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, operations research, and
economic optimization, all organized to deliver long range
management recommendations for groundwater extraction
from multiple sources, development of water recycling and
desalination, and investment in watershed conservation. Each
stage of the integrated model, from the climate model to the
watershed model to the groundwater model, is designed to
deliver the information required to make welfare-maximizing
management decisions regarding watershed conservation,
groundwater extraction from multiple scenarios, development
and reuse of treated water, and desalination.
* Continuation of award from FY2010.
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December 1, 2011 12
Energy and Greenhouse Gas Solutions (EGGS)
Current Awards: $390,147.21 newly funded in FY
2011
Dr. Denise Konan heads UHERO’s Energy and Greenhouse
Gas Solutions (EGGS) project. The project’s mission is
to analyze and tailor energy and climate change policy by assessing
technology options and the associated environmental
and economic impacts. The core goals of the project are to:
i) Engage in rigorous analysis and establish a global research
reputation; ii) Develop and maintain data and models on
Hawai’i energy, economy, and resulting greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions; iii) Develop solution- based education and outreach
programs on energy and GHG solutions for a variety of levels
- legislators, business community, K-12, and higher education;
and iv) Showcase Hawai’i solutions that demonstrate a sustainable
alternative for others.
The EGGS project’s primary funding have come from the
UH Manoa Office of Facilities and Grounds, the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 through the State of
Hawai‘i Department of Business, Economic Development,
and Tourism, the Renewable Energy and Island Sustainability
program, and the UH Sea Grant College Program
Significant funded research during FY2011 included (Dr.
Konan is Principal Investigator for these projects):
• Understanding And Communicating The Environmental
Impacts Of Seawater Air Conditioning In
Waikiki (Konan) Provide a scholarly, independent, and multidisciplinary
evaluation of district-wide cooling via SWAC in
Waikiki as compared with business as usual (BAU) with the aim
of implementing sustainable energy and water practices that
are economically sound, socially acceptable and that conserve
and enhance the natural environment.
• Model Economic Impacts of Alternative GHG
Reduction Strategies (Konan)* Modify UHERO GEM
EGGS model to parameterize economic and emissions coefficients
for electricity, utility gas, ground transportation, air
transportation, maritime transportation, agriculture, and other
key economic sectors of interest. The model will be capable
of estimating the change in economic activity associated with
alternative greenhouse gas emissions reductions strategies.
• Marginal Abatement Costs to meet Act 234
(Konan)* Once renewable energy extensions of UHERO
GEM are complete, model scenarios will be able to provide
estimates of mission price required under a pure emissions tax
or cap and trade program so that it complies with the GHG
emission targets of Act 234.
• Life cycle analysis of GHG emissions from
bio- fuel electricity production (Konan)* Biofuels with
total life cycle emissions; Imported bio-fuels for electricity,
transport etc.
• Hawai‘i Energy and Greenhouse Gas Solutions
– 2009 (Konan)* The Hawai‘i Energy and Greenhouse
Gas Solutions (EGGS) project is undertaking a com- prehensive
analysis of Hawai‘i’s energy infrastructure, economy, and
emissions associated with human activity. This project compiles
‘bottom up’ data on firm-level and household fuel use,
technology, and other activities and reconciled these data with
macroeconomic energy and emissions data. Under development
is a dynamic com- putable general equilibrium model of
Hawai‘i’s economy, energy infrastructure, and greenhouse gas
emissions. Early analysis shows that tourism activities comprise
a significant component of Hawai‘i’s carbon footprint. Special
analysis of Waikiki and the visitor infrastructure (hotels, restaurants,
transportation) will be a focus of the EGGS study.
This is a signature project of the emerging Sea Grant Center
of Excellence on sustainable coastal tourism. This project is
supported by a collaboration between Sea Grant and UHE-
RO.
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December 1, 2011 13
• HNL GHG Inventory Support (Konan) KYA
Design Group (KYA) has been retained by State of Hawai‘i
Department of Transportation (DOT) to develop a sustainability
report for the Honolulu Airport (HNL). One component
of this report is an account greenhouse gas emissions
(GHG) from airport operations. UHERO EGGS is supporting
KYA’s GHG accounting and re- porting process by providing
two services:
o Guidance on, and review of the data collection
pro- cess and necessary conversions; and
o Editing of written report, HNL GHG Inventory,
that will be included as a section in the complete HNL
Sustainability Report.
o Additionally, to the extent possible, KYA
and UHERO EGGS will work to engage undergraduate students
at the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa in the GHG accounting
process with the intent to develop local expertise in
emis- sions inventory work.
• Energy, Economics, and Greenhouse Gas
Emissions Database (Konan) This project seeks to develop
an energy, economics and greenhouse gas emissions database
(EGGED) for the state of Hawai`i. We are currently working
with various stakeholders including Ha- waii Energy Policy Forum
(HEPF), the Hawai‘i Energy Efficiency Program, and the
Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism
(DBEDT) in order to develop a database that enables the
energy data tobe compatible and applicable to economic data.
Once collected and organized, the database will aide various
analyses on energy consumption providing insight to the state
regarding Hawai‘i Clean Energy Initiative goals and plans.
* Continuation of award from FY2010.
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December 1, 2011 14
Other UHERO Research Projects
• $617,286 Submitted pending/unfunded projects
for FY 2011.
• Cliometrics Society Conference Grant 2008 –2011,
National Science Foundation (LaCroix)
• Cliometrics Society Conference Grant 2011 –2014,
National Science Foundation (LaCroix)
• Economic Recovery from Coastal Disasters: Hilo
(1960) and Iniki (1992), Sea Grant (Noy) Pending
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December 1, 2011 15
UHERO Faculty and Fellows, Peer-Reviewed Articles: FY 2011
Adams, F. G. and Gangnes, B. 2010. “Why Hasn’t the US
Economic Stimulus Been More Effective? The Debate on Tax
and Expenditure Multipliers.” World Economics, 11(4): 111-
130.
Amornthum, S. and Bonham, C. 2011. “Financial Integration
in the Pacific Basin Region: RIP by PANIC Attack?” Journal
of International Money and Finance 30: 1019-1033.
An, C.B., S-H Lee, and N. Hwang. 2010. “Economic Crisis
and Intergenerational Economy: Lessons from Korea’s 1997-
98 Economic Crisis.” KDI Journal of Economic Policy 32 (1).
Burger, N., G. Charness and J. Lynham. “Field and Online
Experiments on Self-Control.” Journal of Economic Behavior
& Organization, forthcoming.
Burger, N. and J. Lynham 2010. “Betting on Weight Loss ...
And Losing: Personal Gambles as Commitment Mechanisms,”
Applied Economics Letters. 17(12): 1161-1166.
Burnett, K., L. Endress, M. Ravago, J. Roumasset, and C.
Wada. 2011. “Islands of Sustainability in Time and Space,”
International Journal of Sustainable Society, forthcoming.
Burnett, K., S. Pongkijvorasin, and J. Roumasset. 2011.
“Species Invasion as Catastrophe: The Case of the Brown
Tree Snake.” Environmental and Resource Economics, accepted
July 14, published online July 31, doi:10.1007/s10640-
011-9497-3, in press.
Coffman, M. and I. Noy. 2011. “Hurricane Iniki: Measuring
the Long-Term Economic Impact of a Natural Disaster Using
Synthetic Control,” Environment and Development Economics,
forthcoming.
Costello, C., J. Lynham, S. Gaines and S. Lester. 2010. “Economic
Incentives and Global Fisheries Sustainability,” Annual
Review of Resource Economics, 2, 229-318.
Duarte, T. K., S. Pongkivorasin, J. Roumasset, D. Amato,
and K. Burnett. 2010. “Optimal Management of a Hawaiian
Coastal Aquifer with Near-Shore Marine Ecological Interactions,”
Water Resources Research, Water Resour. Res., 46,
W11545, doi:10.1029/2010WR009094.
Fuleky, P. 2011. “On the Choice of the Unit Period in Time
Series Models.” Applied Economics Letters, 19:12, 1179-1182.
Gangnes, B. 2010. Review of Globaloney 2.0: The Crash
of 2008 and the Future of Globalization, by Michael Veseth,
in Arches, the Alumni Magazine of the University of Puget
Sound, Spring.
Gangnes, B. and A.V. Assche. 2010. “Electronics Production
Upgrading: Is China Exceptional?” Applied Economics Letters,
Vol. 17, No. 5, pp. 477-482.
Gangnes, B., A. Ma and A. Van Assche. 2011. “China’s
Exports in a World of Increasing Oil Prices” Multinational
Business Review, 19(2): 133-151.
Kaiser, B. and K. Burnett. 2010. “Spatial Economic Analysis
of Early Detection and Rapid Response Strategies for an
Invasive Species.” Resource and Energy Economics, in press.
Konan, D. 2011. “Limits to Growth: Tourism and Regional
Labor Migration.” Economic Modeling, 28, 473-481.
Konan, D. and H. L. Chan. 2010. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions
in Hawai‘i: Household and Visitor Expenditure Analysis.”
Energy Economics, 32: 210-219.
Konan, D. and Keith E. Maskus, “Partner Trade Shares and
Domestic Wealth in a Preferential Trade Agreement with
Nationally Differentiated Products.” Review of International
Economics, forthcoming.
LaCroix, S., Shawn Arita, James Mak, and Christopher Edmonds.
2011. “The Impact of Approved Destination Status on
Mainland Chinese Travel Abroad: An Econometric Analysis.”
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December 1, 2011 16
Tourism Economics, forthcoming.
Books and edited volumes
Lee, S-H, N. Sukrakarn, and J-Y. Choi. 2011. “Repeat Migration
and Remittances: Evidence from Thai Migrants”, Journal
of Asian Economics 22 (2): 142-51.
Mason, A., R. Lee, and S-H Lee. 2010. “Population Dynamics:
Social Security, Markets, and Families” International Social
Security Review 63 (3): 145-75.
Pongkijvorasin, S., J. Roumasset, K. Burnett, and T.K.
Duarte. 2010. “Renewable Resource Management with Stock
Externalities: Coastal Aquifers and Submarine Groundwater
Discharge,” Resource and Energy Economics, 32(3): 277-291.
Roumasset, J. “Wither The Economics of Agricultural Development,?”
2010. Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development,
7(1) Los Banos, Philippines: Southeast Asian Regional
Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture.
Roumasset, J. and C.A. Wada. 2011. Ordering Renewable
Resources: Groundwater, Recycling, and Desalination. The
B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 11 (1), Contributions,
Article 28.
Roumasset, J. and C.A. Wada. 2010. Optimal and Sustainable
Groundwater Extraction. Sustainability 2 (8), 2676-2685.
Roumasset, J. and C.A. Wada. 2011. Ordering the Extraction
of Renewable Resources: the case of Multiple Aquifers.
Resource and Energy Economics doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2011.10.003,
in press.
Smith, M., J. Lynham, J. Sanchirico and J. Wilson, “The Political
Economy of Marine Reserves: Understanding the Role
of Opportunity Costs,” Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, forthcoming.
Zhang, J. and D. Konan. 2010. “The Sleeping Giant Awakes:
Projecting Global Implications of China’s Energy Consumption.”
Review of Development Economics, 14(4), 750-767.
Hahn, C.H., and S-H Lee (eds.). 2011. Reforms for Korea’s
Sustained Growth, Seoul, Korea, Korea Development Institute
Press.
Roumasset J., K. Burnett, and A.M. Balisacan (eds.) 2010.
Sustainability Science for Watershed Landscapes. Singapore:
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies; Los Banos, Philippines:
Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research
in
Articles in edited volumes
An, C.B., S. H. Lee, and N. Hwang. 2010. “Economic Crisis
and Intergenerational Economy: Lessons from Korea’s 1997-
98 Economic Crisis”, KDI Journal of Economic Policy 32 (1).
Burnett, K. and J. Roumasset. 2010. “Sustainability Science:
Overview and Directions for Further Research,” in J.
Roumasset, K. Burnett, and A. Balisacan (eds.), Sustainability
Science for Watershed Landscapes. Singapore: Institute
of Southeast Asian Studies; Los Banos, Philippines: Southeast
Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in
Agriculture.
Cohen, R., C. Bonham, and S. Abe. “Dollar Exchange Rate:
A Reexamination,” in the Handbook of Financial Econometrics
and Statistics, Springer, forthcoming.
Gangnes, B. and A. V. Assche. 2010. China and the Future
of Asian Electronics Trade, in Linda Yueh, (ed.), The Future
of Asian Trade and Growth: Economic Development with the
Emergence of China, Routledge.
Hahn, C.H., and S-H Lee (eds.). 2011. “Introduction and
Overview”, in C.H Hahn and S-H Lee (eds) Reforms for Korea’s
Sustained Growth, Seoul, Korea, Korea Development
Institute Press, pp. 1-16.
LaCroix, S. 2010. “The Economy,” in Jon Osorio and Craig
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December 1, 2011 17
Howes (eds.) The Value of Hawaii, Honolulu: University of
Hawaii Press.
LaCroix, S. and A. Kawaura, “A Survey of the ‘Designated
Hitter’ Rule,” in Liam Lenten, (ed.) Economics of Sports
Leagues: An International Perspective. Northampton: Edward-Elgar,
forthcoming.
Mason, A, R. Lee, and S-H Lee, 2010. “The Demographic
Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim”, Takatoshi
Ito and Andrew Rose (eds.) The Economic Consequences
of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER, Chicago,
University of Chicago Press, pp. 19-55.
Mason, A., S-H Lee, and R. Lee. 2010. “Will Demographic
Change Undermine Asia’s Growth Prospects?”, Jong-Wha
Lee, Masahiro Kawai, and Peter Petri (eds.) Asia’s Regionalism
in the World Economy, Cheltenham, UK and Northampton,
MA, USA, Edward Elgar, pp. 70-121.
Mason, A, R. Lee, and Sang Hyop Lee, 2010. “The Demographic
Transition and Economic Growth in the Pacific Rim”,
Takatoshi Ito and Andrew Rose (eds.) The Economic Consequences
of Demographic Change in East Asia (NBER, Chicago:
University of Chicago Press): pp. 19-60.
Pongkijvorasin, S. and J. Roumasset. 2010. “Integrated Watershed
Management: The Role of Optimization in Sustainability
Science,” in J. Roumasset, K. Burnett, and A. Balisacan
(eds.), Sustainability Science for Watershed Landscapes.
Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies; Los Banos,
Philippines: Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate
Study and Research in Agriculture.
Ravago, M., J. Roumasset, and A. Balisacan. 2010. “Economic
Policy for Sustainable Growth and Development vs.
Greedy Growth and Preservationism,” in J. Roumasset, K.
Burnett, and A. Balisacan (eds.), Sustainability Science for Watershed
Landscapes. Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian
Studies; Los Banos, Philippines: Southeast Asian Regional
Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture.
Conference Presentations
Bonham, C. “Hawai’i’s Two Speed Recovery & Prospects for
Growth”, E Kamakani Noi`i—Wind That Seeks Knowledge,
American Academies of Sciences Board on Science, Technology,
and Economic Policy, January 13, 2011.
Bonham, C. “Real Time Measurement of Business Conditions—
A Hawai‘i Tourism Indicator”, 64th Annual AUBER
Fall Conference, October 17, 2010.
Burnett, K. “Using Economics to Predict Species Movement
from 1850.” World Congress on Environmental and Resource
Economics, Montreal, Canada, June 28-July 2, 2010.
Coffman, M. Plenary Session Panelist, Hawaii Agricultural
Conference 2010, “Issues of Energy & Bioenergy for Hawaii.”
Coffman, M. Keynote Speaker, Kauai Economic Development
Board Agricultural Conference 2010, “The Co-Existence
of Energy and the Agricultural Sector: It’s a Matter of
Scale.”
Coffman, M. Western Regional Science Association Annual
Conference 2010: “Assessing Local Refinery Profitability and
Rising World Oil Prices.”
Gangnes, B. “Is Our World Going to Get a Whole Lot Smaller.”
Kyoto Conference on International Trade and Innovation,
Kyoto, Japan, February 11, 2011.
Gangnes, B. “The Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How
Costly are ARRA Jobs?” AUBER Fall Conference, Charleston,
WV, October 2010; Project LINK Fall Meeting, New
York, NY, October 2010.
Konan, D. Northeast Asian Economic Forum, Expert Working
Group on Energy Cooperation, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 13-15
April 2011
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Konan, D. National Center for Science and Civic Engagement
Washington Symposium, Washington D.C., 27-29
March 2011
Konan, D. Asian Development Bank, Workshop on Transitional
Economies: Progress and Pitfalls, Honolulu, Hawai‘i 18
February 2011
Konan, D. American Social Science Association Conference,
North American Economic and Finance Association, 6-9 January
2011, Denver, Colorado
Konan, D. Sea Grant Week, 15-22 October 2010, New Orleans
Konan, D. East Asian Economic Association, 2-3 October
2010, Seoul, Korea
Lee, S-H, Asian Development Bank, Demographic Transition
and Economic Growth , Seoul, South Korea, May 2011.
Lee, S-H, Association of Asian Studies, Annual Honolulu,
Honolulu, March 2011.
Lee, S-H, Korea Development Bank, Conference on Program
Impact Evaluation, Seoul, November, 2010.
Roumasset, J. “Ordering Renewables: Groundwater, Recycled
Water, and Desalination,” 2011 AAEA and NAREA
Annual Meeting Joint Annual Meeting, Pittsburg, July 24-26,
2011.
Roumasset, J. “An Economic Approach to REDD+,” International
Energy Workshop, Standford University, Palo Alto,
CA July 6-8, 2011, (with Majah-Leah Ravago).
Roumasset, J. “Least-Pearce-First meets Groundwater Economics”
UC Davis seminar, Nov 23, 2010.
Roumasset, J. “Sustainability Science for Policy Analysis: the
Case of Watershed Conservation and Groundwater Management”
12th Occasional California Workshop on Environmental
and Resource Economics, UC Santa Barbara, November
12-13, 2010.
Roumasset, J. “Governing the Resource: Scarcity-Induced
Institutional Change” International Society for New Institutional
Economics (ISNIE) 14th Annual Conference, University
of Stirling, Scotland, UK, June 17 - 19, 2010, (With Nori
Tarui).
Roumasset, J. “Confuser Cost,” World Congress of Environmental
and Resource Economist (WCERE), June 28-July 2,
2010, Montreal, Canada (with Sittidaj Pongkijvorasin).
Roumasset, J. “Sustainability Science for Food, Forests, and
Floods: Integrating Climate Adaptation and Pro-Poor Resource
Management,“ Asia Room, Imin International Conference
Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, May 27-28, 2010 (Organizer).
Roumasset, J. “Sustainable Development and Win-Win
Strategies for Climate Mitigation and Adaptation,” EWC Jefferson
Fellowship, April 21, 2010, Burns Hall, (with Majah-
Leah Ravago).
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December 1, 2011 19
Invited Lectures and Significant Media Appearances
Bonham, C. “Maui Outlook: Recovery Underway”, MECO Annual Economic Outlook, May 12, 2010.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update Preview”, Bank of Hawaii ALCO Meeting, April 18, 2011.
Bonham, C. “Maui Preliminary Forecast: Oil, Japan, and Deficits”, Maui Chamber of Commerce 2011 Economic Update
Luncheon and SBA Awards, April 8, 2011.
Bonham, C. “Maui Preliminary Forecast: Oil, Japan, and Deficits”, Bank of Hawaii Maui Client Event, April 6, 2011.
Bonham, C. HEI Strategic Planning Meeting, April 4, 2011.
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December 1, 2011 20
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum”, Downtown Rotary Breakfast, March 18, 2011.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum”, Bank of Hawaii Branch Division Managers Conference,
March 5, 2011.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum”, Bank of Hawaii Board of Directors Meeting, February 18,
2011.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update”, Pacific Asia Tourism Association & Travel and Tourism Research Association Annual
Economic Tourism Seminar, February 16, 2011.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Rail Will Add to Momentum”, Hawaii Association of Independent Schools Admissions
Directors Meeting, February 7, 2011.
Bonham, C. “Forecast Update”, Bank of Hawaii Economic Forum, February 3, 2011.
Bonham, C. “Hawai’i’s Two Speed Recovery—Catches a Ride in 2011”, HECO Business Forum, January 27, 2011.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Hawai’i’s Two Speed Recovery”, Senate Ways & Means — House Finance Committee
joint economic briefing, January 3, 2011.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Hawai’i’s Two Speed Recovery”, Hospitality Advisors 18th Annual Visitor Industry Leaders
Briefing, December 2, 2010.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Strong Summer For Tourism”, Prudential Advantage Realty, October 29, 2010.
Bonham, C. “State Forecast Update: Strong Summer For Tourism”, Hawaii Economic Association Annual Conference, October
1, 2010.
Bonham, C. “2010 Construction Forecast & State Forecast Update”, Bank of Hawaii ALCO meeting, September 20, 2010.
Bonham, C. “2010 Construction Forecast”, Subcontractors Association of Hawaii Annual Conference, September 18, 2010.
Bonham, C. “Q3 State Forecast Update”, SERVCO Officers Meeting, September 14, 2010.
Bonham, C. “Industry Leaders Panel—2011 Outlook” Hawaii Tourism Authority 2010 Hawaii Tourism Conference, August
10, 2010.
Bonham, C. “Forecast Update”, Bank of Hawaii Economic Forum, August 5, 2010.
Bonham, C. Bank of Hawaii Strategic Planning Meeting, July 21, 2010.
Gangnes, B. “Hawaii’s Economy” Town Square, Hawaii Public Radio, September 8, 2011.
Gangnes, B. “Hawaii Forecast Update,” Aloha Pacific Credit Union, Honolulu, June 17, 2011.
Gangnes, B. “The Global Financial Crisis and Recovery,” MPE/World Bank program, Yokohama National University, February
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December 1, 2011 21
22-24, 2011.
Gangnes, B. “State Forecast Update: Hawaii’s Two-Speed Recovery,” Honolulu City Council Budget Committee, January 12,
2011. Also, Kalihi Business Association, January 12, 2011.
Gangnes, B. “The Global Financial Crisis and Recovery,” HEC Montréal Department of International Business, MA program
course, Fall 2010.
Roumasset, J. “Honolulu Rail Transit: A Prima Facie Project Evaluation” with Sherilyn Wee, Hawaii Economic Association
Meeting, November 17, 2010.
uhero.hawaii.edu