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1 <strong>on</strong> 1:<br />

MACD<br />

© 2004 W. R. <strong>Booker</strong> II & Maxwell Fox. All rights reserved forever and ever. And ever.<br />

This ebook is part of a comprehensive program to train you to successfully trade currency. Alas,<br />

you’ll probably lose m<strong>on</strong>ey. We all do at first. <strong>Rob</strong>’s not liable if, based up<strong>on</strong> the nformati<strong>on</strong> you<br />

read here, you lose m<strong>on</strong>ey, make m<strong>on</strong>ey, turn into a woodchuck, possum, or other furry creature.<br />

You have to work hard, study a lot, and dedicate yourself mentally. D<strong>on</strong>’t ever give up


1<br />

Moving Average C<strong>on</strong>vergence Divergence (MACD)<br />

MACK-D<br />

MACD is arguably the most versatile indicator available <strong>on</strong> pretty much all charting<br />

software packages. You can use it to judge momentum, or as an oscillator (for<br />

ascertaining overbought and oversold c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s), or to slice and dice vegetables quickly<br />

and efficiently.<br />

But wait! There’s more!<br />

For the purpose of this learning sessi<strong>on</strong>, we will use the default settings of 12, 26, 9.<br />

You may find that when you test using the MACD that you want to use alternate settings.<br />

And that’s fine. But I have always stayed with the regular old standard settings.<br />

The Standard MACD indicator is made up of 3 parts:<br />

1. The MACD Line - the difference between a 12 period EMA and a 26 period<br />

EMA.<br />

2. The Trigger Line - a 9 period EMA of the MACD line<br />

3. The Histogram - shows the difference between MACD line and Trigger line.<br />

All of these lines and histogram move back and forth over a “center” or “zero” line. We<br />

will go over an example of which line is which in an example below.<br />

When a market is volatile, all of the parts of MACD will make wide swings <strong>on</strong> either side<br />

of the zero line. When a market is relatively quiet, the moving averages that comprise<br />

MACD will come together, making MACD itself c<strong>on</strong>solidate <strong>on</strong> the zero line.<br />

MACD is therefore a good indicator for measuring volatility and momentum.<br />

Possible trading signals come from MACD in the forms of:<br />

Line Crosses<br />

Rollovers/Rollups<br />

Divergences<br />

We’ll talk about each of those in turn, but first you should know that because MACD<br />

oscillates over a “center line,” it gives no indicati<strong>on</strong> of trend. It is therefore up to you as<br />

the analyst to determine the directi<strong>on</strong> of the trend and <strong>on</strong>ly take signals that go in its<br />

directi<strong>on</strong>. If you identify a ranging market you may take positi<strong>on</strong>s in either directi<strong>on</strong> but<br />

use smaller profit targets.


These are the Exp<strong>on</strong>ential Moving Averages (EMA) from which the MACD is created.<br />

The Red Line is a 12 period EMA, and the Magenta Line is a 26 period EMA.<br />

2


The MACD Line is the first element. The MACD line is the measures the relative<br />

distance between the 12 & 26 period EMAs. If the 12 is above the 26, then the MACD<br />

line is above zero. Inversely, if the 12 is below the 26, then the MACD line is below<br />

zero.<br />

3


Here you see the points where the EMAs are crossing each other and where the MACD<br />

line is crossing zero.<br />

4


Because the MACD line measures the difference between the EMAs, it always equals<br />

zero when the EMAs are equal to each other.<br />

5


6<br />

The next element of the whole MACD indicator is the slow or trigger line. It is a 9<br />

period EMA of the MACD line.<br />

In the same way that a moving average is made up of the average value of close prices for<br />

a given number of time periods, the trigger line is made up of average values of the<br />

MACD line for a given number of periods. 9 is the given number, in the case of the<br />

default settings. If this was c<strong>on</strong>fusing to you, I will tell you that this was c<strong>on</strong>fusing to me<br />

at first, too. I simply drilled some holes in my head, dumped out some old informati<strong>on</strong>,<br />

and then re-read the paragraph above.<br />

People tend to say that MACD is giving a “bullish signal” when the MACD line crosses<br />

above the trigger line. In the same way, it is said to be a bearish signal when the MACD<br />

line crosses below the trigger line.


The blue dotted vertical line marks the bullish MACD cross, and the red dotted line<br />

marks the bearish MACD cross.<br />

7


8<br />

The final piece of the MACD indicator is the histogram. The histogram measures the<br />

relative distance between the MACD line and the Trigger line.<br />

It is true that you can just see the difference between the MACD and the Trigger lines,<br />

just by looking at them. But the histogram is even more visual and easy to see. It<br />

reminds me of the bars <strong>on</strong> my cell ph<strong>on</strong>e. Which has nothing to do with trading, but I<br />

thought I would say that anyway.


The histogram can be used to show divergences (in depth less<strong>on</strong> later)<br />

A divergence is meant to show a losing of momentum. Here we have a lower high <strong>on</strong> the<br />

price chart is followed by a higher high, while at the same time the histogram is showing<br />

a higher high followed by a lower high.<br />

This is a bearish divergence. It shows that while price manages to creep higher, it does<br />

so with less enthusiasm than when the move started and we can expect a retracement of<br />

some kind. As we can see <strong>on</strong> the right side, a retracement is exactly what happened.<br />

9


10<br />

I made a couple little step doohickies <strong>on</strong> the histogram to show what a rollover and rollup<br />

might look like. The blue <strong>on</strong>e showing a rollover. The green <strong>on</strong>e showing a rollup.<br />

Here is a powerful way to use the MACD:<br />

When the histogram makes a peak, it starts to print progressively lower bars. When you<br />

see a nice MACD rally upward followed by 2 or 3 declining bars, you are looking at the<br />

first sign of a “rollover”. This is a bearish signal. We call it a rollover because the<br />

MACD is rolling over, as a ball might roll over a hill. It is very quick to give a signal,<br />

and therefore is pr<strong>on</strong>e to whipsaws.<br />

To avoid whipsaws, it’s a good idea to add a couple extra criteria. An<br />

overbought/Oversold indicator would help (like Stochastic, RSI, or CCI). Trend


11<br />

determinati<strong>on</strong> would also help. Waiting for the high or low of your signal candle to be<br />

broken could also help.<br />

What did we learn?<br />

• The MACD indicator is made up of the MACD line, the trigger line, and the<br />

histogram.<br />

• The MACD indicator is vast in its range of analysis functi<strong>on</strong>s, yet it begins with<br />

<strong>on</strong>ly 2 moving averages.<br />

• MACD can be a powerful place to start a technical system.

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