Africa Market Update - June 2015

June.2015 

Market Update - Africa 

This report includes economies of 

Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, 

Rwanda and Ethiopia

MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA | June 2015 

Akosombo Dam in Ghana. Courtesy Sandister Tei 

01. Ghana 

PALLID OUTLOOK AS ECONOMIC 

DOWNTURN PERSISTS 

2 | StratLink Africa Ltd. 

www.stratlinkglobal.com


POLITICAL OUTLOOK 

Energy Crisis Depresses Political Risk 

Profile 

A deepening energy crisis that has resulted 

in electricity rationing has sent ripples 

through the political landscape with rising 

protests. Consumers and investors are now 

grappling with twenty four hours of outage 

followed by twelve hours of supply; a matter 

that has aggravated an economic environment 

characterized by fragility. This has 

seen the masses grow increasingly restive 

and take to the streets decrying a deteriorating 

economic climate. 

Opposition Capitalizes on Energy Crisis 

Growing dissatisfaction is generating political 

capital for opposition factions such as 

the New Patriotic Party (NPP), which has 

led in the organization of demonstrations. 

The energy crisis that is negatively impacting 

day-to-day living and the cost of doing 

business is likely to weaken the position of 

the ruling National Democratic Congress 

(NDC) ahead of the 2016 election. NPP has 

narrowly missed clinching victory in the last 

two elections and is bound to take advantage 

of the ongoing crisis to galvanize public 

support. 

2008 and 2012 Presidential Election 

Outcome 

NDC 

2008 (Run-off) 50.7% 49.8% 

2012 50.7% 47.7% 

NPP 

BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT 

Ratings Downgrade Dents Outlook 

Ratings agency, Moody’s, downgraded Ghana from B2 to 

B3 (Negative Outlook) in March 2015. Whereas it is an open 

secret that the economy has been confronting headwinds, we 

believe the fact that the downgrade came on the back of the 

country’s securing of financial assistance from the International 

Monetary Fund (IMF) is quite telling quite telling of deeper 

fundamental challenges. 

Bearish Long-term Outlook 

In March 2015, Ghana secured a three year USD 918.0 Million 

loan facility from IMF aimed at propping the economy. The 

downgrade by Moody’s is likely to depress investor anticipation 

of recovery, if any, by the economy in the near term. This 

factor is likely to be 

FDI Inflow (USD Mln) 

aggravated by the 

fact that the country 

is advancing towards 

an electioneering 

cycle and confronting 

depressed oil prices in 

the global market. Additionally, 

Ghana is experiencing 

a a period 

of decelerated FDI 

inflows at a time when 

FDI into Sub-Saharan 

Source: UNCTAD, StratLink Africa 

Africa is rising. 

As indicated in the political outlook, there is growing concern 

over factors such as the cost of doing business and the energy 

crisis bedevilling the economy. These factors are bound to 

keep the business climate depressed through Q2, 2015 and 

Q3, 2015. 

Source: GhanaWeb, StratLink Africa 

Social Stability: Prime Concern 

Unlike the last election (2012), the 2016 

election comes at a time when Ghana’s 

economic climate has been battered and 

households are facing adverse conditions. 

Inflation has been in double digits for over 

a year in the country stoking concern over 

the potential ramifications of runaway cost 

of living on social stability. We note that on 

June 24th, 2014, the Trade Unions Congress 

led demonstrations decrying, amongst other 

things, the high cost of living. An environment 

of recurrent demonstrations is likely 

to diminish investor appetite especially 

ahead of the 2016 ballot. 

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 

Growth Slumps to Five-Year Low in 2014 

The economic outlook remains pallid for 

the period through Q3, 2015 driven by a 

host of factors including the energy crisis, 

a battered fiscal balance and high inflation 

pressures. The trend in oil prices threatens 

a significant drag on the economy with the 

Finance Ministry having slashed projected 

www.stratlinkglobal.com 

StratLink Africa Ltd.| 3


In 2014, Ghana’s 

private final 

consumption per 

capita declined 

by 21.6%, yearon-year, 

to USD 

810.4. 

petroleum revenue for 2015 by 64.3% to 

USD 383.1 Million on March 12th, 2015. Demands 

by IMF for fiscal prudence in view of 

extended loan facilities is likely to see the 

government trim its mounting recurrent expenditure 

in 2015 and 2016. 

Expenditure Breakdown 

Private Final Consumption per Capita 

Source: Business Monitor International, StratLink Africa 

Source: Business Monitor International, StratLink Africa 

Economic growth momentum is, however, 

bound to remain subdued in 2015 with the 

IMF forecast putting it a marginal 50.0 bps 

points higher than 2014’s actual growth. 

If unmitigated, high inflation is bound to depress 

consumption power further. We note, 

however, that in line with our January 2015 

forecast, the uptick in inflation has become 

more benign in what we assess is largely 

driven by monetary tightening. Inflation appears 

to have found a ceiling at 17.0%. 

Inflation 

Real GDP Growth 

Source: Ghana Statistical Service, IMF, StratLink Africa 

Source: Bank of Ghana, IMF, StratLink Africa 

Economic Climate Straining 

Consumption 

Investors are also likely to bear the brunt 

of declining domestic consumption in what 

could be an indicator of belt tightening by 

consumers in view of a harsh economic 

climate. In 2014, Ghana’s private final consumption 

per capita declined by 21.6%, 

year-on-year, to USD 810.4. 

On March 13th, 2015, Bank of Ghana hiked 

the benchmark rate by 100.0 bps to 22.0%. 




Money Supply vs Monetary 

Benchmark Rate 

Source: Bank of Ghana, StratLink Africa 

The hike comes on the back of resumption 

of strong growth in money supply in Q4, 

2014 which is likely to be raising the bank’s 

concern of inflationary pressure going forward. 

Inflation nudged upward, albeit marginally, 

towards the end of Q1, 2015 and 

could persist pegged on the evolution of 

money supply. 

Average Month-on-Month Money 

Supply Growth 

DEBT MARKET UPDATE 

Treasury bill yields declined, albeit marginally, 

between November 2014 and February 

2015 in what we assess has been driven by 

a decrease in government borrowing. Data 

from Bank of Ghana indicates that accepted 

bids in the T-Bill market declined by 45.2% 

to USD 681.0 Million in the period. 

T-Bill Market Accepted Bids (USD Bln) 


The decline in government borrowing could 

be the result of demands for fiscal prudence 

by the IMF following assistance extended 

to Ghana in view of the ongoing economic 

downturn. Between end of January 2015 

and end of April 2015, both the 91 Day and 

the 182 Day yields declined by 70.0 bps to 

25.1% and 25.7%, respectively. 

T-Bill Yields 

The decline in 

government 

borrowing could 

be the result of 

demands for fiscal 

prudence by the 

IMF following 

assistance 

extended to 

Ghana in view 

of the ongoing 

economic 

downturn. 






The resilience 

exhibited by the 

Cedi between 

September 2014 

and January 2015 

appears to be 

waning. 

- 34.5 % 

Cedi depreciation 

year-on-year 

Fragile Cedi Prompts Liquidity 

Tightening 

Liquidity has tightened in the money market 

with the average daily interbank rate having 

closed May 2015 at 23.6%, 50.0 bps higher 

than it closed March 2015. The tightening is 

likely to be the result of emerging fragility 

of the local currency (Cedi) which has seen 

it depreciate to lows last witnessed in Q3, 

2014. 

Daily Interbank Rate vs Cedi 

Exchange 

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE 

Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index 

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa 

- 2.6 % 

Cedi depreciation 

month-on-month 

Ghana Stock Exchange Month-on-Month 

+ 4.9 % 

GSE Composite Index 

year-on-year 

+ 4.9 % 

GSE Composite Index 



The resilience exhibited by the Cedi between 

September 2014 and January 2015 appears 

to be waning. Our view is that this has been 

occasioned by two factors, primarily, stemming 

from the rally by the greenback that 

has seen many Sub-Saharan African currencies 

weakening from a relative standpoint. 

Additionally, we note that the strengthening 

in the said period came on the back of the 

acquisition of a USD 1.7 Billion loan by the 

Cocoa Board as well as the sale of USD 1.0 

Billion Eurobond by the government. The 

trend by the Cedi could suggest that the 

cushioning impact of the dollar proceeds is 

diminishing. 


Investors Ride the Tide of Bullish 

Episode 

The market experienced a fairly strong rally 

between April and May 2015 in what we assess 

has been driven by three factors: 

1. Investors Shying from Declining 

Fixed Income Yields 

As indicated in the Debt Market analysis, 

yields have exhibited decline, albeit marginal, 

in the last two months in what we 

observe is being driven by fiscal prudence 

demands and liquidity tightening. Declining 

yields and the prospect of greater fiscal 

prudence as the country taps into IMF 

assistance could be driving investors away 

from the fixed income market into the stock 

exchange pursuing higher returns. 




2. Strong Results by Listed 

Companies 

Further to the potential impact of declining 

fixed income yields on the stock exchange, 

we note that a number of listed counters 

have posted favourable results for Q1, 2015 

that are likely to have buoyed investor sentiment. 

Fan Milk Ltd reported a robust 161.4% 

growth in net profit to USD 3.0 Million for 

the three months to March 31st, 2015 compared 

to the same period in 2014. We note 

that revenue in Q1, 2015 nearly doubled 

compared to the same period in 2014 in 

what the company has attributed to strong 

growth in volume sold. The Bloomberg Financial 

Services Companies Index also indicates 

listed companies in the sector have 

exhibited a generally bullish trend. 

Bloomberg Financial Services Index 


3. Growing Confidence from IMF 

Response 

Investors could well be gaining some measure 

of confidence in the market driven 

by the securing of assistance from IMF in 

March 2015. The deal comes of the back of 

yearlong deliberations between the government 

and IMF and could be interpreted by 

many investors that respite is in sight for 

the anaemic economy. 

+ 4.9 % 

Financial Services 

Index year-on-year 

+ 4.8 % 

Financial Services 

Index month-onmonth 




02. Kenya 

BOUT OF RESILIENCE AS ECONOMY 

DEFIES 2014 HEADWINDS 





Kerry Visit Ends Era of ‘Lukewarm’ 

Kenya-USA Relations 

The visit by USA Secretary of State, John 

Kerry was significant in two respects. One, 

it marked the first visit by a high profile 

USA government official since Hillary Clinton’s 

(then Secretary of State) visit in 2012. 

We note that Kerry’s visit comes against 

the backdrop of a crumbled case against 

President Uhuru Kenyatta at the International 

Criminal Court. As such, it serves as a 

strong indicator of improving perception of 

the Kenyatta administration by the United 

States of America and the wider international 

community. 

Endorsing Kenya’s Anti-terror Efforts 

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 

Two, the visit, which dwelled extensively on 

averting the planned closure of the Daadab 

Refugee Camp, signifies recognition of Kenya’s 

anti-terror efforts. The Kenyan government 

had planned to close the camp hosting 

an estimated 350,000 refugees, citing it as a 

breeding ground for Al Shabaab militia operatives. 

The United States of America is reported 

to have pledged an additional USD 45.0 

Million towards the strained facility, propping 

Kenya’s regional standing in the context of a 

volatile Horn of Africa region. 

John Kerry’s Visit to Somalia 

The visit to Somalia by John Kerry, an unprecedented 

occurrence in the strife torn 

nation, further indicated the importance 

and pursuit of a stable Eastern Africa region. 

Kenya is part of the Amisom 1 peace 

keeping mission and has its anti-terror efforts 

emboldened by John Kerry’s visit to Somalia. 

With Kenya accounting for 40.0% (USD 

53.0 Billion) of East Africa’s economy and 

serving as the region’s gateway, recent developments 

bode well for an environment 

recurrently hit by terror attacks. President 

Barrack Obama is also slated to visit Kenya 

in July 2015, a fact that is likely to further 

buoy perception of the country. 


Economy Defies Headwinds in 2014 

Despite a challenging year in 2014, the 

We note that 

Kerry’s visit 

comes against 

the backdrop of 

a crumbled case 

against President 

Uhuru Kenyatta at 

the International 

Criminal Court. 

Kenya Beats Peers in Consumption 

Strong domestic consumption in Kenya is likely to remain a Private Final Consumption per Capita 

major allure for potential investors. Between 2008 and 2014, private 

final consumption per capita accelerated by 30.7% to USD 

1,051.3, at par with Tanzania’s 31.8% to USD 655.3. We note, 

however, that Kenya’s is fairing a lot better than Ghana (widely 

deemed to be one of Kenya’s main comparable economies) 

which saw consumption grow by 15.8% to USD 810.4. 

Eventful Q2, 2015 – Q1,2016 

The wholesale and retail segment of the economy is growing 

rapidly, posting 6.9% growth in 2014. The next year is promising 

to be an exciting period in Kenya’s consumption market in view 

of the planned opening of multiple mega malls concentrated in 

Source: BMI 2015, StratLink Africa 

the capital city of Nairobi. 

Real estate pundits that StratLink Africa contacted intimate it will be an unprecedented phase in entry of new 

shopping mall space with the Two Rivers and Garden City Shopping Mall projects bringing on board an additional 

112,000 square meters 2 . 

2 Construction Business Review 

1 African Union Mission to Somalia 




Agriculture 

weathered a dual 

shock stemming 

from the 2007/08 

post-poll chaos 

and the 2010/11 

drought that 

crippled its 

performance in 

the period. 

economy grew by 5.2% propelled by Information 

Communication Technology (ICT), 

Financial Services and Trade. This fell 60.0 

bps below the government’s target growth 

for 2014 in line with StratLink Africa’s 2014 

view that “5.8% GDP growth will be a tall 

order” (in our June 2014 presentation to a 

leading ICT solutions provider in the Kenyan 

market) and forecast that growth was likely 

to settle “marginally above 5.0%” (In our 

January 2015 presentation to the Kenya Association 

of Manufacturers). 

Economic Growth 

Gross National Disposable Income (USD) 

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa 


As alluded to in the foregoing Business Environment, 

we anticipate that the Trade segment, 

despite performing at historic lows, 

will be a key driver of economic growth in 

2015 drawing from strong domestic consumption. 

Why Agriculture Should Perform Well 

StratLink Africa ascribes the recovery in yearon-year 

growth in disposable income to the 

recent uptick in the agriculture sector which 

accounts for an estimated 75.0% of the country’s 

labour force 3 . As such, the performance 

of the sector plays a crucial role in determining 

the income level in the economy. 

Agriculture Sector Growth 

Trade Sector Growth 



Disposable Income in an Apparent 

Rebound 

The consumption outlook is brightened further 

by indication that growth of gross disposable 

income in the economy could be 

rebounding after a period of steady decline. 

In 2014, Gross National Disposable Income 

per Capita grew by 10.8% to USD 1,308.6, 

290.0 bps higher than growth in 2013. 

The discernible uptick suggests the sector is 

shrugging off the effects of this period. We anticipate, 

however, fragile recovery in the near 

term driven by depressed commodity prices 

in the global market that are affecting key agriculture 

exports. 

3 Food and Agricultural Organization 




Global Tea and Coffee Prices (USD/Kg) 

Consumption will further be subject to the 

evolution of price levels in the economy. Inflation 

has nudged upwards in the last two 

months and it is edging closer to the Central 

Bank’s Upper Target of 7.5%. 

Inflation Trend 

Source: World Bank, StratLink Africa 

Bloomberg BVAL Yields Index 


Likely Shift from T-Bills to Interbank 

Market 

In line with tightening liquidity, the average 

bid to cover ratio for the 91.0 Day T-Bill declined 

by 18.8% month-on-month between 

March and April 2015 to 1.3. The declining 

investor appetite in the short-term fixed income 

market could be driven by a possible 

shift by commercial banks (key institutional 

investors in the T-Bill market) into the interbank 

market. With the interbank rate trending 

between 10.0% and 11.0%, this market 

is presenting a competing alternative for 

the T-Bill market. 

Interbank Rate Trend 

The declining 

investor appetite 

in the short-term 

fixed income 

market could 

be driven by a 

possible shift by 

commercial banks 

(key institutional 

investors in the 

T-Bill market) into 

the interbank 

market. 



Yields have been on a general uptick between 

April and May 2015 driven by tightening 

liquidity. This is in line with our April 

2015 forecast that liquidity tightening was 

likely to persist with the Central Bank keeping 

an eye on the weakening shilling. 

We note that the interbank rate touched the 

10.0% mark in the week ending May 20th, 

2015, on the back of payment of taxes and 

issuance of Term Auction Deposits. In the 

first three weeks of May 2015, Central Bank 

effected a net liquidity withdrawal of USD 

80.6 Million from the money market. 

Source: Central Bank of Kenya, StratLink Africa 

Is there Respite for the Shilling? 

The shilling has remained under immense 

pressure crossing the 98.0 units of exchange 

to the greenback on May 26th, 2015 

and trending on lows last witnessed in 2011. 




Historical 

trends indicate 

inflation mimics 

the currency 

with episodes 

of weakening 

occasioning rising 

inflation driven by 

a surge in the cost 

of imports. 

-11.8 % 

Kenya Shilling 

change year-on-year 

- 4.2 % 

Kenya Shilling 

change month-onmonth 

Kenya Shilling vs USD Exchange 


Steady decline in Central Bank’s usable foreign 

exchange reserves and months of import 

cover explains, in part, the weakening 

of the shilling. Between March 26th, 2015 

and May 21st, 2015, usable foreign exchange 

reserves declined by 4.9% to USD 6.8 Billion 

pointing at depressed foreign currency inflows 

into the country. As indicated in our 

previous issues, the greenback has been rallying 

strongly in the recent past inflicting relative 

weakening on the local unit. 

Foreign Exchange Reserves and 

Import Cover 

We note, however, that Central Bank has 

hinted at deploying proceeds from the IMF 

Precautionary loan secured in February 2015 

towards propping the shilling. 

Mounting Inflation Risk 

With inflation now edging closer to the set 

upper limit of 7.5%, we anticipate greater 

focus from a monetary policy standpoint in 

supporting the shilling with a view to mitigating 

spill-over effects. Historical trends 

indicate inflation mimics the currency with 

episodes of weakening occasioning rising 

inflation driven by a surge in the cost of imports. 

Kenya Shilling vs Inflation 2011 - 2013 


- 0.8 % 

NSE 20 Share Index 

change year-on-year 


NSE 20 Share Index Year-on-Year 

- 4.0 % 

NSE 20 Share Index 

change month-onmonth 






NSE 20 Share Index Month-on-Month 

Equity Bank Share Performance 

Kenya’s largest 

bank by customer 

base, Equity Bank, 

has also seen its 

share price trend 

downwards in the 

latter half of May 

2015. 


Market Moderates after Earnings 

Season 

The market has been on a downtrend after 

a slight rally in view of the Q1, 2015 earnings 

season. We assess that investors are adjusting 

positions in select counters which have 

witnessed a rise in price in the recent past. 

Safaricom Share Performance 


Month-on-Month to May 26th, 2015 Safaricom’s 

share price tanked 9.5% to USD 0.16 

in what we believe was driven investors adjusting 

positions in the aftermath of the results 

driven rally that saw the share touch a 

high of USD 0.18 on May 06th, 2015. Kenya’s 

largest bank by customer base, Equity Bank, 

has also seen its share price trend downwards 

in the latter half of May 2015. Monthon-Month, 

the share price has declined by 

4.0% to USD 0.5. 


Strong Long-term Prospects for 

Equity Bank and Safaricom Ltd 

Investors are, however, likely to be bullish 

about both Equity Bank and Safaricom in 

the coming months in view of ongoing developments. 

In May 2015, Equity Bank acquired 

majority shareholding in ProCredit 

Bank in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a 

fact expect to expand its regional footprint. 

Safaricom’s product diversification has seen 

it enter the foray of digital television set top 

boxes space. 

Mortgage lender, Housing Finance, has continued 

to crater on the back of a marginal 

0.1% increase, year-on-year, in net profit in 

Q1, 2015 to USD 2.3 Million. In the same period, 

net non-performing loans grew by a 

considerable 12.0% to USD 28.5 Million. We 

assess that the listing of an additional 116.7 

Million ordinary shares on April 15th, 2015 

could also be inflicting downward pressure 

on the share price driven by increased supply. 

Housing Finance Share Performance 





03. Tanzania 

SHILLING TUMBLES BELOW 2,000.0 MARK 

TO THE GREENBACK 





Stepping Up Anti-terror Efforts 

The arrest of ten suspected Al Shabaab militia 

operatives in Kilombero District signifies a 

state of high alert by the government in view 

of lurking terror threat in the East African region. 

Whereas Tanzania has enjoyed a more 

stable environment compared to Kenya and 

Uganda, incidents in the recent past suggest 

deteriorating tension along religious lines. 

Between 2013 and 2014, there were recurrent 

incidences of churches and clergy being 

targeted in attacks such as the February 

23rd, 2014 bomb explosion at a church in 

Zanzibar. 


Shilling Tumbles below 2000.0 Mark 

High demand for the USA dollar in the recent 

past pushed the local unit to a tumble that 

saw it hit record lows in May 2015. The shilling 

appeared to lose grip on resilience exhibited 

in April 2015 during which it merely 

‘flirted’ with the 2,000.0 mark averaging 

1,906.7 to the greenback. StratLink Africa believes 

the 3.8% month-on-month decline in 

foreign exchange reserves to USD 4.2 Billion 

in March 2015 7 suggests Bank of Tanzania 

could be experiencing diminishing capacity 

to prop the shilling. 

Zanzibar has 

been at the centre 

of the growing 

religious rift. The 

quest for greater 

autonomy by the 

island is likely to 

further compound 

Tanzania’s 

national cohesion 

woes. 

Fault Lines to Confront in the Near 

Term 

We are cautious about the country’s political 

risk outlook especially in view of the 

postponed constitutional referendum and 

October 2015 election. The electoral cycle 

presents a fragile ground on which radicalisation 

and sectarianism could be fanned by 

separate groups. Debate over the accommodation 

of Kadhi (Islamic law observing) 

Courts under the intended new constitution 

has also threatened to undermine cohesion 

across the religious divide. 

In this regard, indication that the government 

is on high alert for terror linked elements 

is a welcome development that is 

bound to embolden investor confidence. 

Zanzibar has been at the centre of the growing 

religious rift. The quest for greater autonomy 

by the island (dominated by Muslim 

population) in light of the proposed constitution 

is likely to further compound Tanzania’s 

national cohesion woes going forward. As 

and when the referendum takes place, it will 

be interesting to see to what extent the push 

for a more autonomous Zanzibar will be accommodated. 


Manufacturing to Receive Key Focus 

Investors in the manufacturing sector are set for a potentially 

more friendly business climate following the government’s 

strategic plan 2016 – 2021 which earmarks the sector as one 

of priority focus 4 . This strategy could be emerging from the 

country’s strong performance in intra-EAC trade that saw 

its exports valued at 

Exports to EAC (USD Mln) 

USD 1.1 Billion in 2013 

against imports worth 

USD 397.0 Million 5 . 

We also note that 2013 

data suggests Tanzania 

could be fast closing 

the gap on Kenya as 

the region’s largest 

export base. The spike 

in Tanzania exports to 

the EAC in 2013 can 

be attributed to strong 

Source: EAC Facts and Figures, StratLink Africa 

growth of exports to 

Kenya which grew by 

159.0%, year-on-year, to USD 863.4 Million. 

Investors will be keen to take advantage of Tanzania’s emergence 

as a key competitor for the top spot in the region’s industrial 

arena catalysed further by below target performance 

in Kenya’s manufacturing sector which grew by 3.4% in 2014 6 . 

4 Allafrica.com May 2015 

5 EAC Facts and Figures 2014 

6 Kenya National Bureau of Statistics 

7 Bank of Tanzania April 2015 Update 




-22.5 % 

Tanzania Shilling 

year-on-year change 

Tanzania Shilling vs USD Exchange 

and April 2015 marks the first three months 

of consecutive uptick since 2013. Between 

March 2015 and April 2015, inflation nudged 

upwards by 20.0 bps to 4.5%. 

Inflation Trend 


In our May 2015 issue, we observed that 

whereas the country was experiencing contraction 

in the current account deficit, the 

strengthening dollar was wiping out gains 

made. This trend continues to manifest in 

the witnessed fragility of the shilling and we 

anticipate it is likely to persist given the decline 

in the foreign exchange reserves. 

Likely resurgence of a deteriorating balance 

of payments could pile further pressure on 

the shilling going forward. The country’s import 

bill between January and April 2015 exceeded 

that of the same period in 2014 by 

USD 300.0 Million 8 . Declining proceeds from 

gold exports are also bound to heighten the 

fragility of the shilling. 



Tightening liquidity in the money market 

sent yields on an uptrend in May 2015. After 

declining in the last two months, the interbank 

rate exhibited uptick touching a high 

of 7.7% on May 23rd, 2015. Bank of Tanzania 

has been mopping liquidity with a view to 

help prop the weakening shilling. 

T-Bill Yields 

End of March Foreign Exchange 

Reserves (USD Mln) 

Source: Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa 

Source: Bank of Tanzania, Bloomberg, StratLink Africa 

The weakness of the local unit is bound to 

have an impact on inflation with a potential 

rise in the cost of goods and services. 

We note that the period between January 

8 Bank of Tanzania May 2015 

Taming the Sliding Shilling 

Bank of Tanzania raised commercial bank’s 

minimum reserve ratio by 200.0 bps to 

10.0% effective May 29th, 2015 in clear indication 

of an attempt to tame the sliding shilling. 




Interbank Rate and Volumes (TZs Mln) 


As such, we anticipate further tightening of 

liquidity in the next one month with yields 

bound to rise further. Coming against the 

backdrop of an unchanged monetary policy 

benchmark rate since 2013, the hike in the 

reserve ratio comes as a strong statement 

on monetary policy response to the weakening 

shilling. 

Interbank Market Month-on-Month 

T-Bill Bid-to-Cover Ratios 



Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange All 

Share Index Year-on-Year 

Coming against 

the backdrop of 

an unchanged 

monetary policy 

benchmark rate 

since 2013, the 

hike in the reserve 

ratio comes as a 

strong statement 

on monetary 

policy response 

to the weakening 

shilling. 



Dar es Salaam All Share Index 

Month-on-month 

+39.7 % 

All Share Index 


Tightening liquidity continues to constrain 

investor appetite in the fixed income market 

with T-Bill bid-to-cover ratios exhibiting a 

decline in the last three months across all 

tenors. 

+0.8 % 



change 





Executives at the 

exchange suggest 

new listings by 

end of 2015, a fact 

that could excite 

investor activity. 

The market was, on the whole, weighed 

down in May 2015 by Tanzania Breweries, 

East Africa Breweries Ltd and Kenya Commercial 

Bank which account for 55.6% of the 

weighting of the All Share Index. 

Month-on-Month to May 26th, 2015 Tanzania 

Breweries Ltd’s share price declined by 

a marginal 0.1% while those of East African 

Breweries and Kenya Commercial Bank declined 

by 1.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Executives 

at the exchange suggest new listings by 

end of 2015, a fact that could excite investor 

activity. 

Dar es Salaam Exchange All Share 

Index by Weights 





04. Uganda 

WOOING OIL INVESTORS IN A PRICE 

PRECARIOUS ENVIRONMENT 




Uganda’s political 

climate remains 

stable but with 

underlying 

fragility given 

events developing 

around the 2016 

ballot. We expect 

guarded optimism 

from investors in 

this regard. 


Government Woos Oil 

Investors 

The abolition of taxation on 

oil and gas exploration is likely 

to be a key catalyst for the 

investment climate. We view 

this decision as a measure 

by the government aimed at 

cushioning the impact of depressed 

oil prices which has 

seen interested companies 

slash exploration budgets. In 

February 2015, Tullow Oil Plc 

was reported to be planning 

to slash its exploration budget 

in Kenya 11 on the back of 

cratered oil prices. 

OPEC Basket Monthly Average 

Price (USD) 


Democratic Space on the Spot 

The arrest of opposition luminary, Kizza Besigye, 

on May 14th, 2015 for an alleged ‘illegal 

meeting’ casts the country’s political risk 

climate in unfavourable light. This is further 

aggravated by the fact that Uganda is entering 

an election phase (2016) with concern 

rife over President Museveni’s likely bid for 

another term in office. 

Opposition Factions Mulling Over 

Coalescing 

This comes against the backdrop of consideration 

of a possible coalition by a section of 

the opposition in a bid to challenge Museveni 

in 2016. Parties reported to be part of 

With companies now exempt 

from value added and withholding 

tax in the exploration 

phase, Uganda is likely to 

witness increased investor 

interest in view of its robust 

reserves. 

Proven Oil Reserves (Mln 

Barrels) 

Source: IEA, StratLink Africa 

the talks include the Democratic Party, Forum 

for Democratic Change and the Federal 

Alliance 9. Whereas it remains to be seen 

whether the envisioned coalition will see 

the light of day, the very prospect of a united 

opposition is likely to stir the political climate. 

Adding impetus to the push for regime 

change in Uganda is the widely held 

perception that the ruling National Resistance 

Movement (NRM) has been weakened 

by simmering disquiet internally. 

The Amama Mbabaazi Factor 

Museveni’s sacking of Amama Mbabaazi 

from the position of Prime Minister in September 

2014 was widely perceived as a 

move to elbow out potential challengers 

in 2016. As such, it is likely to be employed 

by the opposition in decrying stifled democratic 

space under the NRM administration. 

Factions of the opposition have called for 

boycott of the 2016 polls, slated for February 

12th, 2016 10 , alleging bias by the Electoral 

Commission in favour of Museveni. 

Uganda’s political climate remains stable 

but with underlying fragility given events 

developing around the 2016 ballot. We expect 

guarded optimism from investors in 

this regard. 


High Credit Growth in Extractive Sector 

Bullish investor sentiment around the extractive 

sector, in view of oil exploration, 

could be the principal driver of strong credit 

growth to the sector. This trend is likely 

to persist in the medium term, subject to 

shocks such as global oil price trends, as 

the country seeks to commence commercial 

production by 2018. Between March 

2009 and March 2015, the Mining Sector 

has posted 59.6% growth (CAGR) in private 

sector credit to USD 13.8 Million 12 outpacing 

manufacturing (58.0%) and trade (49.7%) in 

growth. 


11 Daily Nation February 11th, 2015 

9 The Observer February 16th, 2015 

10 The Africa Report April 2015 Edition 

12 Bank of Uganda May 2015 




Private Sector Credit Growth Full 

Year to March 2015 

Source: Bank of Uganda, StratLink Africa 

In February 2015, the government announced 

the first round of licensing covering 

six oil blocks; a fact that could bolster 

investment in the sector further as it signifies 

steps made towards the targeted commercial 

production by 2017/18. Uganda’s 

position as an oil producer is bound to be 

buoyed by declining reserves in key producers 

such as Gabon which saw its production 

declined by 35.3% to 240,000.0 barrels per 

day 13 between 1997 and 2013. 

Outstanding Commercial Bank 

Credit (USD) 

between July 2014 and November 2014. In 

this period, the OPEC average monthly basket 

price declined by 28.4% to USD 75.6 14 . 

Investors are likely to have been betting on 

global prices resuming pre-June 2014 highs 

through the period based on similar recovery 

in the 2008/09 price plunge. The discernible 

decline in credit in Q1, 2015, however, 

suggests this expectation could be waning. 

OPEC Monthly Average 2008/09 



T-Bills Continue Rising 

Yields in the T-Bill market continue to rise 

on the back of high volatility in liquidity in 

April 2015. The latter half of April 2015 was 

characterized by liquidity tightening that 

saw the interbank rate rise by 300.0 bps in 

two weeks to close April 20th, 2015 at 12.7%. 

T-Bill Yields 

Investors are likely 

to have been 

betting on global 

prices resuming 

pre-June 2014 

highs through the 

period based on 

similar recovery 

in the 2008/09 

price plunge. The 

discernible decline 

in credit in Q1, 

2015, however, 

suggests this 

expectation could 

be waning. 


Is the Price Slump Crunching Private 

Sector Credit? 

Outstanding credit to the oil and gas sector 

exceeded that channelled to other minerals 

in Q2, 2014 for the first time. We assess 

that investors have been slow to respond 

to the plummeting global oil prices as indicated 

by the steep rise in credit to the sector 


Available data indicates the same trend is 

at play in the medium to long-term end of 




The latter half of 

April 2015 was 

characterized by 

liquidity tightening 

that saw the 

interbank rate rise 

by 300.0 bps in 

two weeks to close 

April 20th, 2015 at 

12.7%. 

+28.4 % 



- 2.1 % 



change 

the market with the two year, five year and 

fifteen year yields having risen between December 

2014 and March 2015. In the period 

under review (December 2014 to March 

2015), the two year yield rose by 240.0 bps 

to 16.7% whereas the five year rose by 340.0 

bps to 17.0%. The fifteen year, on the other 

hand, rose by 150.0 bps to 17.4%. 

The shilling slumped below the 3,000.0 

units to the USA dollar resistance point on 

May 22nd, 2015 as it ceded ground to the 

rallying greenback. 

Point 

Shilling vs USD Exchange 

Medium to Long-term Yield Curve 


Liquidity is likely to continue tightening as 

the shilling comes under intense pressure 

from the greenback. Dealers report that the 

local unit could confront greater pressure 

going forward driven by a deteriorating current 

account balance and rising public 

spending ahead of the 2016 election 15 . 

Overall Interbank Rate 


Shilling Breaches 3,000.0 Resistance 

15 Reuters May 19th, 2015 



Uganda Stock Exchange All Share 

Index 





UGSE All Share Month-on-month 


There is no respite as yet for the Securities 

Exchange with the bearish trend persisting 

through May 2015. Umeme Ltd (79.2% of 

market turnover in May 2015) has remained 

subdued thereby dragging the market’s aggregate 

performance. 

There is little indication that Umeme Ltd 

could be headed for a rebound in the near 

term and is likely to keep the market on a 

downtrend. 

Umeme Ltd Share Performance 





05. Ethiopia 

EARMARKING MANUFACTURING TO BOLSTER 

ECONOMIC GROWTH 





Country Takes to the Ballot 

African Union Observers report that the 

Ethiopian election climate was characterized 

by ‘’peace and calm’’ and the mission 

was ‘’satisfied with the conduct of political 

parties, candidates and supporters in the 

run up to the election”. Whereas this comes 

as a laudable development boding well for 

the country’s political risk profile, it will be 

crucial to await the official declaration of results 

to pass holistic assessment of the pre 

and post-election conduct of the country. In 

2005, unrest rocked the country in the aftermath 

of preliminary results that indicated 

the ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary 

Democratic Front (EPRDF) was leading 16 . 

AU Report Misses ‘Free and Fair’ 

Description 

Whereas the AU Observer report (May 26th, 

2015) offers favourable description of Ethiopia’s 

election, StratLink Africa observes that 

the report does not describe the exercise 

as ‘free and fair’. In an electoral context, the 

absence of this description is weighty and 

is unlikely to escape notice of development 

partners and investors eyeing the market. 

Media Law and Anti-terror Law 

Emerge as Sticky Issues 

The AU Observer Report highlights concerns 

from political parties concerning the country’s 

Media Law, Anti-terrorism Law and the 

Charity and Society Law. As indicated in our 

previous reports, the Anti-terrorism Law 

(2009) is bound to continue being a fragile 

point in the country’s political risk outlook. 

The law is widely criticized, within and without 

Ethiopia, for creating an avenue through 

which the state can stifle dissenting voices. 



High Prospects for Manufacturing 

Ethiopia plans to invest USD 10.0 Billion in development and 

expansion of industrial parks in the next decade (2015 – 2025) 

indicative of focus on boosting the manufacturing industry. 

We note that Ethiopia is fast emerging as a manufacturing 

hub in the Eastern Africa region buoyed by low cost of energy 

(as indicated in our May 2015 Market Update) and low cost of 

labour. 

Multinationals’ Entry Affirms Improving Climate 

In a move that in a sense lends credence to Ethiopia’s emerging 

prominence as a textile manufacturing hub, USA clothing 

multinational, Phillips-Van Heusen Corp is reported to be 

eyeing an industrial park in 

Ethiopia’s Hawassa region 17 . 

In 2013, Chinese shoe 

company, Huanjin Group, 

established a production 

line in the country 18 . 

Manufacturing Growth Rate 

Data available to StratLink 

Africa indicates that whereas 

the manufacturing sector 

in Ethiopia has been experiencing 

robust growth, Kenya 

has been trailing in low 

single digits. 

17 Bloomberg News May 19th, 2015 

18 UNCTAD 2014 Report 

The retention of the country’s local currency 

issuer default ratings at B (Stable Outlook) 

by Fitch comes as a strong statement of 

the underlying economic environment. Investors 

will note that this favourable rating 

comes on the back of depressed global coffee 

prices (about 28.0% of export earnings 19 ) 

and an election cycle. World Bank forecasts 

the economy will expand by 9.5% in the financial 

year ending June 2015, before accelerating 

to 10.5% in 2016. The projection of 

resumption to double digit growth is likely 

to serve as an allure to investors banking on 

high growth frontier markets for expansion. 

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, 

StratLink Africa 

Fitch Ratings Bode Well for Investors 

16 The Carter Center Election Final Report 2009 

19 OEC 2015 Data 




Noting, however, 

that inflation 

in the economy 

is largely food 

driven, a key risk 

to this outlook 

with weather 

conditions in 

through Q4, 2015 

and how they 

affect agricultural 

production. 

Real Gross Domestic Product Growth 

Source: World Bank, UNDP, StratLink Africa 

Mitigated Inflationary Pressures 

Despite an expected uptick, inflation is expected 

to remain in single digits averaging 

about 6.8% in 2015. Depressed oil prices in 

the global market will be a key driver of this 

trend, underpinning favourable inflation expectation 

amongst investors. Noting, however, 

that inflation in the economy is largely 

food driven, a key risk to this outlook would 

be weather conditions through Q4, 2015 

and how they affect agricultural production. 

Average Annual Inflation 

Domestic Revenue as % of Total Budget 

Source: IMF 2014, StratLink Africa 

This trend in domestic revenue mobilization 

is bound to see government debt to GDP ratio 

remain favourable in the near term. 

Government Debt to GDP Ratio 

Source: IMF 2015, StratLink Africa 

-6.6 % 

Birr to USD change 

year-on-year 


Mild Deterioration in Fiscal Balance 

Despite headwinds presented by subdued 

coffee prices deterioration of the fiscal balance 

is likely to be mild (by about 30.0 bps, 

year-on-year, to 2.9% of GDP in 2015 20 ). This 

view is premised on the fact that domestic 

revenue mobilization has been improving 

in the economy, presenting favourable 

ground for meeting fiscal needs. Further, 

strong performance of the country’s debut 

Eurobond in December 2014 props the fiscal 

outlook. 

The Birr is, however, bound to remain a 

point of weakness in the economy’s outlook. 

The local currency has been under 

pressure from the strengthening USA dollar 

and the state of balance of payment. After 

holding in the 20.0 units of exchange to the 

greenback band (20.0 – 20.9), the local unit 

is now tinkering on crossing the 30.0 mark 

on the back of a strengthening dollar and 

depressed export earnings. 

Birr vs USD Exchange Rate 

20 International Monetary Fund 2015 Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa 




06. Rwanda 

RISKS COULD UNDERMINE ECONOMIC RECOVERY 





run-up to the 2017 election has, hitherto, 

been characterized by looming uncertainty 

Masses Push for Third Term for over continuity of this approach in the possible 

event of a Post-Kagame administration 

Kagame 

The parliament received two million signatures 

in favour of a constitutional amendment 

that would pave the way for a third A third term for Kagame is bound to augur 

Short-term Respite for Investors 

term bid by President Kagame 21 . The apparent 

sovereign backing for another term by mitigate uncertainty over the country’s suc- 

well for investors as it is widely anticipated to 

Kagame could serve to begin toning down cession climate and policy outlook. Coming 

succession concerns by investors in view of at a time when the country is shrugging off 

the 2017 polls. Under Kagame, Rwanda policy 

framework has been driven by an inves- 

that rendered the economy fragile, the rul- 

the effects of the 2012/13 donor aid shock 

tor friendly approach that has seen the ing party, Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) is 

economy consistently rank high in World likely to hinge the clamour for a third term 

Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index. The for Kagame on the strong recovery exhibited 

in 2014. Year-on-year economic growth 

averaged 7.0%, 240.0 bps higher than 2013. 


Long term Uncertainty 

Sino-Rwanda Pact Raises Energy Generation 

Investors are, however, likely to be concerned 

about the long-term ramifications 

Prospects 

Rwanda could make strides in addressing its energy deficit if of the amendment. Foremostly, the development 

raises concern over the country’s 

the May 2015 pact between the government and the Sinohydro 

Corporation helps in accelerating execution of the 

democratic maturity and state of preparedness 

for political transition. It will be of in- 

Nyabarongo II Power Project. The project is expected to inject 

an additional 120.0 Megawatts (Mw) into the national grid, terest to observe whether the amendment 

against the current installed capacity of 156.0 Mw 22 . 

proposes a new term limit or does away 

with the same altogether. We observe that 

Rwanda Trails Peers in Electrification Rate 

factions of opposition have decried stifling 

of democratic space under Kagame. 

Across the East African region, Rwanda posts one of the lowest 

electricity penetration rates at 14.5%. In October 2014, 

Rwanda was reported 


Electricity Penetration Rate 

to be planning to import 

as much as 400.0 Mw 

Growth Projected to Decline in 2015 

from Ethiopia in a bid 

The Ministry of Finance and the International 

Monetary Fund have both projected 

to address the existing 

energy deficit which was 

the country’s 2015 economic growth at 

decelerating the business 

6.5%. We note that this places the forecast 

50.0 bps below 2014’s aggregate economic 

climate 23 . 

growth signifying likely underlying risks in 

Nyabarongo II is one of 

the macroeconomic environment. 

the three main hydroelectric 

power projects 

Source: World Bank, StratLink Analysis 

Underlying Risks in Rwanda’s 

in the country’s five year electricity strategic plan that targets 

Climate 

generating 232.0 Mw from hydro sources. The move to fasttrack 

implementation of Nyabarongo II bodes well for the 

The foremost risk lurking in Rwanda is a potential 

slump in grants from development 

country’s investment climate, signalling priority policy focus on 

partners. The Ministry of Finance forecasts a 

energy. 

14.1% decline, year-on-year, in grants in the 

22 fiscal year 2015/16 to USD 520.2 Million 22 New Times Rwanda 

. 

23 The East African October 4th, 2014 

The projected decline in grants is bound 

to inflict lethargy on the economic growth 

21 Bloomberg May 07th, 2015 

22 Afrika Reporter, May 1st, 2015 




momentum based on Rwanda’s extent of Year-on-Year Growth in Exports and A third term for 

external funding reliance in meeting fiscal Imports 

demands. StratLink Africa is of the view, 

however, that this does not negate the fact 

that, by and large, Rwanda is progressively 

cutting back on external funding as a means 

investors as it is 

of meeting budget needs. 

to mitigate 

External Financing as a % of 2014/15 

Budget 

the country’s 

succession 

Source: National Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Analysis 

The trade deficit deteriorated by 10.3% outlook. 

year-on-year in 2014 to USD 1.2 Billion. In 

view of weakening commodity prices, this 

trend is likely to persist through 2015. 

Source: National Treasuries, StratLink Analysis 

Trade Deficit 2010-2014 (USD) 

The forecast on a shortfall in grants is bound 

to be exacerbated by below target revenue 

mobilization domestically. The country fell 

5.0% short of its revenue target to USD 589.7 

million in the second half of 2014 (Note that 

in the financial year 2012/13, Rwanda’s revenue 

mobilization performance rate was 

103.7% 25 ). 

Weak Exports Dampen Earnings 

Source: National Institute of Statistics, StratLink Analysis 

Outlook 

Rwanda’s weak export earnings vis-a-vis a 

growing import bill, further, aggravates the DEBT MARKET UPDATE 

country’s fiscal risks. The threat of a rising 

The T-Bill yields registered near negligible 

import bill is made more significant by the 

movement between April 2015 and May 

ongoing strong rally by the greenback which 

2015. We observe that government borrowing 

has continued to decline witnessing a 

is weakening most Sub-Saharan Africa currencies. 

In the last five years, imports have, 

35.0% month-on-month dip between March 

on average, been growing twice as fast as 

and April 2015 to USD 49.3 Million and is 

exports weakening the country’s trade balance. 

likely to be the main factor driving yields 

downwards alongside rising liquidity. 

Amount Borrowed through T-Bills 

(USD Mln) 

25 Rwanda Revenue Authority 2013 Report 

Source: Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa 

Kagame is bound 

to augur well for 

widely anticipated 

uncertainty over 

climate and policy 




Whereas there is 

no clear indication 

as to possible 

maturation of 

papers that could 

be occasioning the 

rise in liquidity, 

we note that Bank 

of Rwanda has 

maintained an 

accommodative 

monetary policy. 

-0.6 % 

Franc to USD 

exchange 

depreciation 

year-on-year 

+3.7 % 

Franc to USD 

exchange 

appreciation 


Both the 91 Day paper and 182 Day papers 

saw their yields decline by 20.0 bps to 3.2% 

and 4.2%, respectively. The 364 Day paper, 

on the other hand, had its yield decline by 

10.0 bps to 4.9%. Yields could, however, 

exhibit marginal uptick in the near term following 

the government’s plan to increase 

domestic borrowing in view of a 5.7% 

downward revision of donor support in the 

2015/16 budget. 

T-Bill Yields 

Source: Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa 

We further assess that rising liquidity in the 

money market, as indicated by movement 

on the interbank rate, is also nudging yields 

downwards. 

The interbank rate maintained the downtrend 

declining by 30.0 bps to 3.5% monthon-month 

to April 2015. Whereas there is no 

clear indication as to possible maturation of 

papers that could be occasioning the rise in 

liquidity, we note that Bank of Rwanda has 

maintained an accommodative monetary 

policy. 

Likely Sustenance of the Policy Rate 

The monetary policy rate has been maintained 

at 6.5% for twelve months as of May 

2015. This trend in liquidity could be maintained 

given the measure of resilience displayed 

by the Franc in view of the rallying 

dollar. 

Interbank Rate 

Source: National Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa 

Franc Exhibits Comparative 

Resilience against the Greenback 

In view of the strengthening USA dollar and 

weakening currencies across the region, 

the Rwanda Franc has been fairly resilient 

in May 2015. Reports indicate that Bank of 

Rwanda has been selling dollars thereby 

propping the local unit against mounting 

pressure from the strengthening greenback. 

On a year-on-year basis, the local unit 

shed a marginal 0.6% to the USA dollar to 

close May 27th, 2015 at 688.6 units. 

Rwanda Franc vs USD Exchange 

Year-on-Year 





Rwanda Franc vs USD Exchange 

Month-on-Month 

RSE All Share Index Month-on-month 

-6.2 % 






Rwanda Stock Exchange All Share 

Index 


After a sustained downtrend the market 

seemed to find a resistance point at the 

137.8 – 136.0 All Share Index mark, having 

hovered within the band in the latter half 

of May 2015. StratLink Africa notes that this 

came at about the same time Crystal Telecom, 

a subsidiary of Crystal Ventures Ltd, 

launched its Initial Public Offer. Investors 

are likely to be holding bullish sentiments 

following listing of an ICT firm on the exchange 

buoying market sentiments. 




Stratlink Africa Ltd - Who We Are 

StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company with Capital Raising Advisory, 

Corporate Advisory and Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in the 

growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and partner with our clients to execute 

their vision by providing quality services and access to capital. We recognize opportunities 

in the region and connect the fastest growing middle market companies with 

leading global investment banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the 

importance of making informed decisions and leverage our regional knowledge to the 

advantage of our clients. 

Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic research 

Within our purview of coverage are nine economies – Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, 

Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and analysis 

of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic environment, debt and equity markets. 

We also conduct sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on market 

landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well as potential challenges. 

Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data 

Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile team traversing the fields of economics 

and finance with qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The team 

is backed by subscription to reliable databases such as Business Monitor International, 

Bloomberg, Thomson One Research, World Economics and The World Today. As such, 

our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in an increasingly dynamic region. Further, 

we reach out to relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central Banks, ministries 

and state departments. 

Authoritative voice on regional economics 

StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary and opinion on issues pertaining 

Sub-Saharan African economies and investment. Reputable media including CNBC 

Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg have reached out to the company for 

opinion and analysis. 

Where we are based 

Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in New York, Kampala and Kuala 

Lumpur. 




StratLink-Africa Team 

Konstantin Makarov – Managing Director 

konstantin.makarov@StratLinkglobal.com 

Dina Farfel – Partner 

dfarfel@StratLinkglobal.com 

Jackson Mwatha– Senior Analyst 

jackson.mwatha@stratlinkglobal.com 

Samuel Odero - Analyst 

samuel.oyier@StratLinkglobal.com 

Lewis Muguro - Analyst 

lewis.muguro@StratLinkglobal.com 

Julians Amboko – Research Analyst 

julians.amboko@StratLinkglobal.com 

Sophia Sifuma – Intern Research Analyst 

sophia.sifuma@StratLinkglobal.com 

Benson Njeri– Intern Analyst 

benson.njeri@stratlinkglobal.com 




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Africa Market Update - June 2015

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