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Africa Market Update September 2016 ABRIDGED

We are pleased to release the September 2016 Africa Market Update covering macroeconomic trends in Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda. In this report we shed insight on: Ethiopia's political risk environment in light of ongoing anti-government protests; Nigeria's slump into recession and Kenya's capping of commercial bank lending rates. The report also includes commentary published by members of our team on topical issues including trends in emerging markets and the electoral cycle in sub-Saharan Africa.

We are pleased to release the September 2016 Africa Market Update covering macroeconomic trends in Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Angola, Uganda and Rwanda. In this report we shed insight on: Ethiopia's political risk environment in light of ongoing anti-government protests; Nigeria's slump into recession and Kenya's capping of commercial bank lending rates. The report also includes commentary published by members of our team on topical issues including trends in emerging markets and the electoral cycle in sub-Saharan Africa.

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A Financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong><br />

MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA (Abridged)<br />

KENYA | NIGERIA | TANZANIA | ANGOLA | UGANDA | RWANDA


A Financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

A financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

Table of Contents<br />

NIGERIA 6<br />

KENYA 7<br />

TANZANIA 8<br />

ANGOLA 9<br />

UGANDA 10<br />

RWANDA 11<br />

Cover image: https://gathua.wordpress.com/category/city/<br />

SEPTEMBER 2015 <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE JANUARY <strong>2016</strong> - AUGUST <strong>2016</strong><br />

50,000 Ivory Coast<br />

120,000 CAR<br />

146 Million Tunisia<br />

12 Million Morocco<br />

25 Million Burkina Faso<br />

20 Million<br />

28 Million<br />

934 Million<br />

Sierra Leone<br />

Ghana<br />

Nigeria<br />

320,000 Liberia<br />

40,000 Malawi<br />

20 Million Namibia<br />

1 Billion<br />

219 Million<br />

South <strong>Africa</strong><br />

Zambia<br />

2 Million Swaziland<br />

1 Million Botswana<br />

Capital Invested by Country (USD)<br />

Sudan<br />

Egypt<br />

Eritrea<br />

Ethiopia<br />

Uganda<br />

Kenya<br />

Rwanda<br />

Mozambique<br />

Tanzania<br />

Maurius<br />

Madagascar<br />

Congo<br />

Zimbabwe<br />

95 Million<br />

450 Million<br />

65 Million<br />

554 Million<br />

9 Million<br />

85 Million<br />

20 Million<br />

46,000<br />

22 Million<br />

5 Million<br />

5 Million<br />

265 Million<br />

12 Million<br />

Capital Invested by Sectors<br />

Capital Invested by Deal Type<br />

Consumer<br />

Non-Durables<br />

27.2%<br />

Commercial Banks<br />

4.7%<br />

1.50%<br />

2.10%<br />

2.50%<br />

11.10%<br />

19.70%<br />

Commercial<br />

Services<br />

15.3%<br />

Healthcare 2.8%<br />

7.10%<br />

11.00%<br />

19.50%<br />

Retail<br />

14.8%<br />

Pharmaceucals<br />

& Biotech<br />

2.4%<br />

11.90%<br />

13.60%<br />

Communicaons<br />

& Networking<br />

6.7%<br />

Others<br />

19.8%<br />

Merger & Acquision... 19.70% Secondary Transacon - Private.. 19.50%<br />

13.60% 11.90%<br />

Growth & Expansion.... Buyout/LBO .................................<br />

Metals, Minerals<br />

& Mining<br />

6.3%<br />

Corporate Divesture... 11.00% Add-on............................................ 7.10%<br />

2.50% 2.10%<br />

Acquision Financing...... PIPE ................................................<br />

1.50% 11.10%<br />

Asset Acquision ............ Others .........................................<br />

Snapshot of Deals in August <strong>2016</strong><br />

• On August 26th, <strong>2016</strong>, Tango Mining acquired a 23.0% stake in Kwena Group (South <strong>Africa</strong>) for USD 904, 848.0<br />

• On August 25th, <strong>2016</strong>, Twiga Foods (Kenya) received an undisclosed amount of development capital from DOB Equity<br />

• On August 23rd, <strong>2016</strong>, Oxbridge Academy (South <strong>Africa</strong>) was acquired by ADvTech for an undisclosed amount<br />

Source: PitchBook, StratLink <strong>Africa</strong><br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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Special Edition: Ethiopia Political Risk Outlook<br />

‘Whereas the <strong>Africa</strong>n Union Observer report offers favourable description of Ethiopia’s May 2015<br />

election, StratLink <strong>Africa</strong> observes that the report does not describe the exercise as ‘free and fair’<br />

StratLink <strong>Africa</strong> Research, June 2015<br />

‘Inability by citizens in parts of the country to access social media platforms such as Whatsapp and<br />

Facebook following protests in the Oromia region indicates that citizens continue to suffer constrained<br />

democratic space. This is a potential pressure point for the country’s stability in the long-term in light of<br />

growing clamor, both domestically and externally, for observance of liberties. This further complicates<br />

the ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary and Democratic Front’s (EPRDF) challenge in fostering<br />

cohesion following the 2015 election in whose outcome was rejected by the opposition’.<br />

StratLink <strong>Africa</strong> Research, May <strong>2016</strong><br />

Country Risk Position: Pallid Outlook in the Medium Term<br />

We maintain a pallid stance on the country’s political risk environment in the medium-term in view of<br />

endogenous risks stemming from protests involving the Oromia and Amhara regions which account for<br />

60.0% of the country’s population. The key risk for Ethiopia lies in the fact that protests that are reported<br />

to have been triggered by plans to extend Addis Ababa into parts of Oromia region are presenting<br />

a vent for accumulated grievances including dissatisfaction with the Anti-Terrorism Act (2009) widely<br />

perceived as a tool used to muzzle opposition.<br />

Population Composition by Regions<br />

0.5%<br />

1.9% 1.1% 4.4%<br />

5.9%<br />

6.0%<br />

36.6%<br />

20.2%<br />

23.4%<br />

Oromia Amhara SNNP Somali Tigray Affar Benishangul-Gumuz Dire Dawa Others<br />

Source: Central Statistical Agency Ethiopia, StratLink <strong>Africa</strong><br />

Going forward, the country faces a mix of risk enhancing and mitigating factors with the former likely to<br />

dominate the period through Q4 <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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Risk Deteriorating Factors<br />

• The country is the midst of adverse weather<br />

conditions that have affected agriculture and<br />

threaten to exacerbate socio-political pressures<br />

• The May 2015 general election and<br />

dominance of the ruling party (EPRDF) in the<br />

house of representatives has served to fuel<br />

marginalization, perceive and actual, of the<br />

opposition<br />

• General moderation of the economy’s growth<br />

momentum could see less employment<br />

opportunities created in the years to come<br />

relative to the decade of robust expansion (2003<br />

– 2014)<br />

• Weak institutions that are widely deemed<br />

to be under patronage by the government<br />

thereby undermining their credibility in conflict<br />

resolution<br />

Risk Mitigating Factors<br />

• Media reports suggest Premier Haile Mariam<br />

Desalegn has been engaging the opposition<br />

in matters of national interest since EPRDF’s<br />

victory in the election. This could help defuse<br />

tension build-up in the country<br />

• Low internet penetration, estimated at 4.2% of<br />

total population against Kenya’s 45.0% 1 , contains<br />

the likelihood of contagion of protests unlike<br />

what was witnessed in countries such as Tunisia<br />

(48.1%) during the Arab Spring<br />

Stability in the country’s Eurobond yield suggests investors have not revised risk perception of the economy in view<br />

of the developments. We assess that this could be as a result of the Ethiopia’s relatively low susceptibility to event<br />

risk unlike peers such as Kenya. The Birr has maintained the volatility witnessed since Q3 2015 in a likely reflection<br />

of the state of the current account in light of subdued commodity prices.<br />

Ten Year Eurobond Yields<br />

10.0%<br />

9.5%<br />

Birr to USD Exchange<br />

22.3<br />

22.1<br />

9.0%<br />

21.9<br />

8.5%<br />

21.7<br />

8.0%<br />

21.5<br />

7.5%<br />

21.3<br />

7.0%<br />

6.5%<br />

6.0%<br />

15-Jul-15<br />

15-Sep-15<br />

15-Nov-15<br />

15-Jan-16<br />

15-Mar-16<br />

15-May-16<br />

15-Jul-16<br />

21.1<br />

20.9<br />

20.7<br />

20.5<br />

01-Sep-15<br />

01-Oct-15<br />

01-Nov-15<br />

01-Dec-15<br />

01-Jan-16<br />

01-Feb-16<br />

01-Mar-16<br />

01-Apr-16<br />

01-May-16<br />

01-Jun-16<br />

01-Jul-16<br />

01-Aug-16<br />

Ethiopia<br />

Rwanda<br />

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink <strong>Africa</strong><br />

1<br />

Internet Live Statistics as at June <strong>2016</strong><br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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NIGERIA<br />

GDP: USD 545.7 Bln | Population: 177.5 Mln<br />

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK<br />

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />

Niger Delta Militia Undermines Risk Outlook<br />

The country’s security position remains under<br />

sharp focus in view of the resurgence of militants’<br />

activity in the oil rich Niger Delta which negatively<br />

impacts the political risk outlook. Coming at a<br />

time when the economy is facing subdued oil<br />

prices, disruption of oil production owing to<br />

recurrent attacks by the Niger Delta Avengers<br />

risks deteriorating socio-economic conditions<br />

in the economy. This development suggests the<br />

country’s endogenous political risk environment<br />

is bound to remain broadly unfavourable in the<br />

coming months.<br />

The proportion of government revenue<br />

accounted for by oil<br />

The proportion of foreign exchange earnings<br />

accounted for by oil<br />

BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT<br />

Economy Slumps into Recession<br />

DEBT MARKET UPDATE<br />

75.0 %<br />

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE<br />

95.0 %<br />

Protests Point at Strain on the Business Climate<br />

Protests by against Chevron’s operation in the<br />

Niger Delta citing unemployment and inequitable<br />

distribution of benefits from oil exploration point<br />

at challenges being faced by both locals and<br />

the business community in view of the adverse<br />

macroeconomic climate.<br />

The economy slumped into recession having<br />

contracted by 0.4% and 2.1% in Q1 <strong>2016</strong> and<br />

Q2 <strong>2016</strong>, respectively. We maintain a bearish<br />

outlook on the economy in the near term driven<br />

by declining oil production over the last quarter<br />

that has seen output stand at 1.5 Million barrels<br />

per day in July <strong>2016</strong>. Reports indicate the decline<br />

in production can be attributed to instability in the<br />

Niger Delta, on the back of militancy by the Niger<br />

Delta Avengers, and inhibits the country from<br />

capitalizing on rebounding oil prices in the global<br />

market.<br />

Yield Curve Inverts on Inflation Spike<br />

Short-term yields surged between July <strong>2016</strong> and<br />

August <strong>2016</strong>, inverting the yield curve. Worries of<br />

runaway inflation have prompted this development<br />

as the threat of negative real interest rates, with<br />

inflation having risen to 16.0% in July <strong>2016</strong>, eroded<br />

the investment climate’s allure in the recent past.<br />

Bank and Oil Stocks Push <strong>Market</strong> further South<br />

The market remained on a downtrend through<br />

August <strong>2016</strong> despite the Central Bank’s move to<br />

grant one-off forbearance for banks to write-off<br />

fully provisioned Non-Performing Loans was a<br />

signal that sought to ease pressure experienced<br />

by banks in view of the adverse macroeconomic<br />

environment. We note that this comes on the back<br />

of conclusion of stress testing (May <strong>2016</strong>) which<br />

revealed two banks stood below regulatory capital<br />

requirement. Despite this intervention, bank<br />

stocks continued to tank<br />

Full report available for purchase via:<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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KENYA<br />

GDP: USD 56.3 Bln | Population: 45.5 Mln<br />

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK<br />

Deal over Electoral Commission Constitution<br />

The joint parliamentary committee tasked with<br />

presenting a way out of the stalemated stance<br />

between the government and the opposition on<br />

persons spearheading the Independent Electoral<br />

and Boundaries Commission reached a deal on<br />

August 16th, <strong>2016</strong>. This development bodes well<br />

for the country’s political risk profile ahead of the<br />

2017 general election coming on the back of a<br />

series of protests by the Coalition for Reforms and<br />

Democracy (CORD) in July <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

Favourable Signal for Public Confidence<br />

In Q2 <strong>2016</strong>, we cited diminished confidence in<br />

electoral governing institutions as a key factor<br />

undermining our position on Kenya’s political risk<br />

outlook. The deal is a major step in remedying<br />

deteriorating confidence and we are optimistic<br />

the momentum can be built on over the coming<br />

months. A key development to watch over the<br />

coming months will be the succession of the Chief<br />

Justice and the extent to which it props confidence<br />

in the judicature.<br />

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT<br />

Kenya Hosts Japan-<strong>Africa</strong> Conference<br />

Kenya’s hosting of the sixth Tokyo International<br />

Conference on <strong>Africa</strong>n Development (<strong>2016</strong>) is an<br />

additional boost to its position as a pivotal economy<br />

in sub-Saharan <strong>Africa</strong>. Over the last 18 months,<br />

Kenya has hosted the Global Entrepreneurship<br />

Summit and the United Nations Conference on<br />

Trade and Development placing it on the global<br />

map.<br />

Slowdown in Japan-<strong>Africa</strong> Trade as Sino-<strong>Africa</strong><br />

Trade Rises<br />

This comes against the backdrop of declining trade<br />

between Japan and <strong>Africa</strong> and a strong presence<br />

by China as <strong>Africa</strong>’s major trading partner. Over<br />

the last five years, China-<strong>Africa</strong> trade has grown<br />

by 6.5% (CAGR) whilst Japan-<strong>Africa</strong> trade has<br />

decline by 3.3%. The conference will be crucial<br />

for investors in both regions to establish links<br />

and explore further diversification of destination<br />

markets amidst an uncertain global environment.<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

7<br />

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />

Interest Rates: Has Kenya’s <strong>Market</strong> Failed?<br />

Whereas StratLink observes that lending rates<br />

in the country are unfavorably high, it believes<br />

Kenya’s market mechanism has not failed as<br />

to necessitate credit pricing through legal<br />

mechanisms. Available data indicates the country<br />

has made considerable progress in narrowing the<br />

spread between lending and deposit rates over the<br />

last two decades, outpacing regional peers such as<br />

Nigeria and South <strong>Africa</strong>. This is an indicator that<br />

over a long-term horizon, there is steady progress<br />

in remedying credit pricing anomalies within the<br />

market. Between 1995 and 2015, Kenya’s spread<br />

declined by 830.0 bps compared to 720.0 and 110<br />

by East <strong>Africa</strong> (regional average) and South <strong>Africa</strong>,<br />

respectively.<br />

DEBT MARKET UPDATE<br />

Short-Term Yields Rise<br />

The short-term end of the yield curve posted a<br />

mild uptrend between July and August <strong>2016</strong> with<br />

the medium to long-term ends remaining largely<br />

stable. With liquidity being relatively high in the<br />

money market (the interbank rate averaged 5.1%<br />

in August <strong>2016</strong> compared to 5.8% in July <strong>2016</strong>), the<br />

uptick is a likely reflection of inflation expectations<br />

following the rise from 5.0% in May <strong>2016</strong> to 6.4%<br />

in July <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE<br />

Banking Stocks Tumble Following New Law<br />

Banking stocks tumbled after the President’s ascent<br />

of the Banking Amendment Bill (2015) which<br />

provides for setting of a ceiling on lending rates<br />

at 400.0 bps above the Central Bank’s benchmark<br />

rate. We constructed a banking stocks index which<br />

plunged 18.9% between the day of the bill’s ascent<br />

and August 30th, <strong>2016</strong>, 30.4% year-to-date.<br />

Full report available for purchase via:<br />

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TANZANIA<br />

GDP: USD 38.1 Bln | Population: 50.8 Mln<br />

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK<br />

Government Accused of Stifling Democracy<br />

Despite mounting concern over constraints on<br />

democratic space in the country, we maintain<br />

a favourable outlook of Tanzania’s political risk<br />

environment with the new government’s reform<br />

agenda providing a strong platform for rallying<br />

national unity. We view the widening rift between<br />

the government and factions of the opposition as<br />

manifestation of hangover from the stalemated<br />

constitutional review process.<br />

Opposition Plans Rallies<br />

Leading opposition faction, CHADEMA, has<br />

planned rallies across the country to demonstrate<br />

against what it terms as suppression of democracy<br />

by the government. The government is reported<br />

to have banned a local newspaper which allegedly<br />

published an article which implicated President<br />

Magufuli in election fraud. As stated in our July<br />

<strong>2016</strong> <strong>Market</strong> <strong>Update</strong>, government is increasingly<br />

being accused of abusing the Cyber Crime Act to<br />

propagate intolerance towards free speech and<br />

media freedoms, after it banned live coverage<br />

of parliamentary proceedings and all opposition<br />

political rallies.<br />

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT<br />

Electrification Deals Boosts Industrialization<br />

Prospects<br />

The National Energy Policy received a major<br />

boost following a USD 200.0 Million deal between<br />

the government and World Bank towards<br />

implementation of a six year rural electrification<br />

program. For the investment climate, this marks<br />

a major step towards decentralization of industry<br />

away from urban centres and potentially creating<br />

new investment opportunities. Key sectors of<br />

interest for investors should be agro-processing<br />

and mineral processing with investment in Export<br />

Processing Zones suggesting these are areas of<br />

priority interest for growing industry.<br />

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />

Promising start of <strong>2016</strong>/17 Financial Year for<br />

Tanzania Revenue Authority<br />

We retain focus on the country’s fiscal position<br />

anticipating further recovery owing to the rebound<br />

in commodity prices coupled with aggressive fiscal<br />

consolidation efforts by the new administration.<br />

Available data indicates revenue mobilization<br />

performance stood at 99.3% in the first three<br />

quarters of 2015/16, compared to 85.6% in the<br />

same period a year earlier.<br />

The rebounding performance in mobilization of<br />

non-tax revenue and import taxes is an indicator<br />

of ongoing fiscal consolidation that has sought to<br />

seal leakages. Performance in non-tax revenue<br />

and import tax is likely to have been buoyed by<br />

improved relations with bilateral partners and<br />

addressing inefficiencies within the import-export<br />

system.<br />

DEBT MARKET UPDATE<br />

Low Appetite for T-Bills on Tight Liquidity<br />

Yields in the T-Bill market exhibited signs of rising<br />

in August <strong>2016</strong> as liquidity remained tight with the<br />

interbank rate rising marginally 50.0 bps monthon-month,<br />

to average 16.9% in August <strong>2016</strong>. As<br />

a result, investors maintained low appetite for<br />

government short-term instruments reflecting in<br />

under-subscription of auctions with the exception<br />

of the 182-Day tenure. We expect yields to remain<br />

elevated in the medium-term as the liquidity<br />

squeeze persists with Bank of Tanzania remaining<br />

on a tight monetary policy stance.<br />

Whereas the 364 Day paper yield remained<br />

unchanged at 15.9%, the 91 Day and 182 Day<br />

papers’ yields rose although marginally, by 70.0<br />

bps and 10.0 bps to 7.5% and 15.7%, respectively,<br />

in the period under review.<br />

Full report available for purchase via:<br />

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ANGOLA<br />

GDP: USD 146.3 Bln | Population: 24.2 Mln<br />

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK<br />

Control of Cabinda: Hot Potato ahead of 2017<br />

Election<br />

We maintain a dimmed outlook of Angola’s political<br />

risk outlook ahead of the 2017 general election in<br />

view of the following considerations:<br />

• Continued strife between rebels and the<br />

government over control of the oil rich Cabinda<br />

enclave. In the latest incident, August 08th,<br />

<strong>2016</strong>, ten soldiers are reported to have lost<br />

their lives in renewed conflict between the<br />

state and rebel forces in the region<br />

• A harsh macroeconomic environment renders<br />

Angola susceptible to socio-political pressures<br />

as citizens seek to vent frustration over<br />

deteriorated living conditions. The surge in<br />

inflation is likely to present a key challenge as<br />

households face eroded purchasing power at<br />

a time when earnings have, by and large, been<br />

subdued by the slump in oil prices<br />

• President Jose Eduardo dos Santos’ appointment<br />

of his daughter as head of the state oil company,<br />

Sonangol, has elicited widespread criticism<br />

over patronage by the President who has been<br />

in power since 1979<br />

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT<br />

Angola Defies Regional Trends in FDI Inflows<br />

Angola defied regional trends to post a strong surge<br />

in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in 2015<br />

to stand at USD 8.7 Billion. Coming from an oil rich<br />

country in the midst of challenges occasioned by<br />

subdued prices, the surge in inflows is of particular<br />

interest and can be attributed to new projects<br />

earmarked for the period <strong>2016</strong> – 2017 including<br />

the Kaombo Project which has seen Total plan<br />

to invest as much as USD 16.0 Billion towards its<br />

development.<br />

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />

Diminished Prospects in the Near to Medium-<br />

Term<br />

We downgrade the country’s near-term economic<br />

outlook based on discontinuation of talks with<br />

the International Monetary Fund, in July <strong>2016</strong>,<br />

for potential funding to address fiscal pressures<br />

stemming from subdued oil prices. Angola’s ten<br />

year Eurobond yield has since been on the uptick<br />

averaging 10.2% in July <strong>2016</strong> compared to Nigeria’s<br />

6.7% 3 indicating deteriorated risk perception.<br />

Ten Year Eurobond Yields<br />

14.5%<br />

13.5%<br />

12.5%<br />

11.5%<br />

10.5%<br />

9.5%<br />

8.5%<br />

7.5%<br />

6.5%<br />

5.5%<br />

Nov-15<br />

Dec-15<br />

Jan-16<br />

Nigeria<br />

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink <strong>Africa</strong><br />

Kwanza Stabilizes<br />

Feb-16<br />

Mar-16<br />

Apr-16<br />

May-16<br />

Jun-16<br />

Angola<br />

Jul-16<br />

Aug-16<br />

The Kwanza stabilized in Q2 <strong>2016</strong> with the<br />

country’s foreign exchange reserves exhibiting<br />

slowed deceleration over the last three months.<br />

The Kwanza had come under pressure in Q1 <strong>2016</strong><br />

following US dollar aridity in the market following<br />

decision by Bank of America and Standard<br />

Chartered to stop supplying banks with the<br />

greenback towards the end of 2015.<br />

Full report available for purchase via:<br />

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UGANDA<br />

GDP: USD 26.3 Bln | Population: 38.8 Mln<br />

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POLITICAL OUTLOOK<br />

Age Limit on the Presidency: Sticky Issue<br />

Ruling party, National Resistance Movement<br />

(NRM), is reported to have petitioned President<br />

Museveni with a proposal seeking to amend<br />

article 102 (b) of the constitution to remove the<br />

presidential age limit of 75 years. As indicated in<br />

our March <strong>2016</strong> (Post-Election Issue), the question<br />

of succession within the party in view of the age<br />

limit imposed by the constitution was bound to be<br />

one of the key issues shaping the country’s political<br />

climate in <strong>2016</strong>. The parliament has previously<br />

(2005) amended the constitution to expunge term<br />

limits on the presidency and it is unlikely the new<br />

proposal would experience formidable resistance<br />

in view of NRM’s dominance.<br />

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT<br />

Government Issues Oil Licenses<br />

The government has issued oil production licenses<br />

to joint venture partners, Total Exploration and<br />

Production Company, and Tullow Oil Uganda, in<br />

addition to the one it had earlier issued to the China<br />

National Offshore Oil Company (CNOOC), raising<br />

investment prospects of realizing the targeted<br />

commercial production in 2017. We anticipate the<br />

following to be key issues for investors:<br />

• Production is projected to peak at 225,000<br />

barrels per day around 2025 implying the next<br />

ten years are to be characterized by accelerated<br />

growth of the economy from the new engine<br />

(oil) as well as growth in per capita income,<br />

subject to trends in oil prices. In the case of<br />

Gabon, economic growth accelerated from<br />

2.4% in 1993 to 5.7% in 1997 at the peak of oil<br />

production beyond which growth has fluctuated<br />

depending on domestic and external conditions<br />

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />

Bank of Uganda Slashes Benchmark to Restore<br />

Growth Momentum<br />

Bank of Uganda slashed the benchmark rate by<br />

100.0 bps to 14.0%, for the third consecutive<br />

time since April <strong>2016</strong>, in an apparent monetary<br />

expansion onslaught on the ongoing economic<br />

slowdown. The economy expanded by 3.5% in Q1,<br />

<strong>2016</strong> compared to 5.4% in the same period a year<br />

earlier as the country took a hit from monetary<br />

contraction and low commodity prices.<br />

DEBT MARKET UPDATE<br />

Rise in Short-term Borrowing<br />

T-Bill yields are likely to continue exhibiting an<br />

upturn over the coming months on the back of<br />

increase in the government’s appetite for shortterm<br />

debt over the last three months. The stock<br />

of T-Bills posted the strongest growth, monthon-month,<br />

in June <strong>2016</strong> at 8.0% compared to an<br />

average of 3.2% in the first half of <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE<br />

The bourse, although recovering, remained<br />

bearish in August <strong>2016</strong>, declining marginally by<br />

80.0 bps to close the month at 1,633.7 units. We<br />

expect further gains at the bourse in the coming<br />

months as economic conditions in the country<br />

improve.<br />

Full report available for purchase via:<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

10<br />

www.stratlinkglobal.com


RWANDA<br />

GDP: USD 7.9 Bln | Population: 12.1 Mln<br />

A financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

POLITICAL OUTLOOK<br />

Trade Relations with Burundi<br />

We assume a negative outlook on Rwanda’s risk<br />

environment following the decision by neighboring<br />

Burundi to ban cross-border trade informed by the<br />

following consideration:<br />

• Rwanda’s exports to Burundi have grown from<br />

10.5% of its exports to the East <strong>Africa</strong>n region<br />

in 2010 to 13.8% in 2015. As such, Burundi has<br />

grown in significance to Rwanda and the latest<br />

development threatens to undermine this<br />

position.<br />

• On the whole, this development derails efforts<br />

to foster regional integration especially for the<br />

two smallest economies (Rwanda and Burundi)<br />

which stand to benefit from access to larger<br />

markets<br />

• This development comes on the backdrop of<br />

already strained relations between the two<br />

countries with the government of Burundi<br />

alleging involvement by its Rwandan counterpart<br />

in supporting rebels seeking to oust President<br />

Pierre Nkurunziza<br />

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT<br />

Rating Reveals Event Risk Still Looms over<br />

Business Climate<br />

On August 12th, <strong>2016</strong>, Moody’s assigned Rwanda<br />

B2 (Stable Outlook) on first time local and foreign<br />

currency issuer ratings casting a broadly favourable<br />

outlook for the business environment. The rating is<br />

in line with StratLink’s assessment of vulnerability<br />

of the country’s business environment to<br />

exogenous shocks, especially in view of strained<br />

relations with Burundi, which could slow down<br />

economic activity.<br />

Endogenous Risk Moderated<br />

From an endogenous perspective, risks to the<br />

business environment have been mitigated by the<br />

constitutional referendum that paved the way for<br />

President Kagame to seek an additional term in<br />

office in the 2017 general election.<br />

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK<br />

Fiscal Balance gets a Boost from Improved Tea<br />

Export Earnings<br />

An unfavourable trade balance presents risks to<br />

the country’s economic outlook in the near term.<br />

Rwanda’s fiscal balance has been deteriorating<br />

on the back of declining export earnings. The<br />

deficit on traded goods widened by 10.2% in Q1<br />

<strong>2016</strong> from the same period in 2015 with imports<br />

accounting for 77.5% of total trade (USD 456.9<br />

Million) whilst exports constituted 15.6% (USD<br />

97.8 Million) as re-exports accounted for 7.0%<br />

(USD 41.0 Million).<br />

DEBT MARKET UPDATE<br />

Franc Slides on Foreign Exchange Shortage<br />

Liquidity is likely to tighten in the coming months<br />

in view of the deceleration by the Franc witnessed<br />

over the last month. The depreciation came<br />

against the backdrop of reports of shortage of<br />

foreign exchange in the market.<br />

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE<br />

Exchange Remains Bearish as Bralirwa Profit<br />

Declines<br />

The Stock Exchange All Share Index remained flat<br />

throughout August <strong>2016</strong>, declining marginally<br />

by 60.0 bps to close the month at 129.3 units.<br />

The market has been undermined by Bralirwa’s<br />

performance in the first half of <strong>2016</strong> posting 83.8%<br />

decline in profits for the first half of <strong>2016</strong> owing<br />

to high interest expenses on loans and losses<br />

stemming from foreign exchange risks.<br />

Full report available for purchase via:<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

11<br />

www.stratlinkglobal.com


A Financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

StratLink in the news<br />

In the month under review, Konstantin Makarov’s focus of analysis was on emerging markets in view of trends witnessed<br />

over the last two quarters:<br />

• In this piece, he provides analysis on the effects of emerging markets on economies through <strong>2016</strong><br />

• In this piece, he assesses investors’ approach to emerging markets, identifying weaknesses and opportunities<br />

Senior Research Analyst, Julians Amboko, shed insight on the ongoing electoral cycle in sub-Saharan <strong>Africa</strong> in view of<br />

change of regime in Nigeria, South <strong>Africa</strong> and Burkina Faso<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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A financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM<br />

Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner<br />

konstantin.makarov@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Dina Farfel – Partner<br />

dfarfel@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Kyle Drexler – Associate<br />

kyle.drexler@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

George Waithaka – Senior Corporate Finance Analyst<br />

george.waithaka@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Lewis Muguro - Analyst<br />

lewis.muguro@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Benson Njeri – Analyst<br />

benson.njeri@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Julians Amboko – Research Analyst<br />

julians.amboko@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst<br />

sophia.sifuma@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design<br />

peter.mutisya@StratLinkglobal.com<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

13<br />

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A financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

©StratLink <strong>Africa</strong> Limited <strong>2016</strong><br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

14<br />

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A financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

A Financial Advisory<br />

Company<br />

Contact Details<br />

STRATLINK AFRICA<br />

StratLink - <strong>Africa</strong>, Limited.<br />

Delta Riverside, Block 4,<br />

4th Floor, Riverside Drive,<br />

Nairobi, Kenya<br />

nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com<br />

www.stratlinkglobal.com<br />

+254202572792<br />

SEPTEMBER <strong>2016</strong> | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA<br />

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