Africa Market Update - April 2015

April.2015 

Market Update - Africa 

This report includes economies of 

Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, 

Ethiopia and Angola

MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA | March 2015 

01. Kenya 

2 | StratLink Africa Ltd. 

www.stratlinkglobal.com


POLITICAL OUTLOOK 

Wanton Corruption: Blight on 

Kenya’s Profile 

Kenya’s institutional and governance reform 

profile is confronting headwinds after 

it emerged, from the country’s top anti-graft 

watchdog, that a number of state officers 

have been involved in misappropriation of 

public funds. Further, suspension of the 

Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee’s 

sittings over alleged corrupt dealings by 

members with a view to influencing the outcome 

of a matter under investigation comes 

as a blow to Kenya’s war on corruption. Allegations 

of corruption are also reported to 

have marred parliament’s Agricultural Committee’s 

investigation of the state of sugar 

manufacturing company, Mumias. Whereas 

the President has taken bold steps to purge 

the government of corruption in the recent 

past, only decisive action going forward will 

help tame pilferage of resources from state 

coffers. 

Corruption: Undermining Optimal 

Resource Allocation 

In the last decade, Kenya has been on an aggressive 

reform agenda that has played a 

critical role in improving investor perception 

of the economy. If left unaddressed, allegations 

of corruption against top watchdog 

bodies and state officers are bound to 

pour cold water on these efforts. Kenya is 

estimated to lose up to USD 750.0 Million 1 

(1.4% of GDP 2 and twice the construction 

cost of the 50.0km Nairobi-Thika Superhighway) 

to corruption annually. 

Tanzania Experience: Development 

Partners Backlash 

In the last two quarters of 2014, alleged involvement 

of state officials in a corrupt deal 

to the tune of USD 124.0 million saw development 

partners withhold donor funding 

from Tanzania. This impacted the country’s 

risk profile negatively as it occasioned challenges 

in financing budget needs. Official 

Development Assistance as a ratio of Kenya’s 

annual budget stands at about 22.0%, 

having risen from 17.0% in 2009/10 3 and 

1 Institute of Certified Public Accountants 2014 

2 Gross Domestic Product 

3 National Treasury Data, Official Development Statistics 

Data 

could pose similar risks if development 

partners take similar action as they did in 

Tanzania. 

University Attack Dwarfs September 

2013 Westgate Siege 

Despite a period of relative calm, the April 

02nd, 2015 Al Shabaab attack on a university 

in Garissa which is reported to have 

claimed 148 lives points at unmitigated fragility 

of the country’s security risk profile. 

Coming on the back of a shake-up in the top 

brass of the country’s security apparatus, 

the attack exposes institutional gaps in the 

anti-terror strategy which has been on the 

spot following recurrent incidences in 2014. 

The attack came barely a week after the 

British High Commission had issued a travel 

advisory highlighting risk in particular parts 

of the country, further raising questions 

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 

Standard Chartered Bank Touts Kenya 

Kenya is estimated 

to lose up to USD 

750.0 Million 

(1.4% of GDP 

and twice the 

construction cost 

of the 50.0km 

Nairobi-Thika 

Superhighway) 

to corruption 

annually. 

Multinational, Standard Chartered Plc, has touted Kenya and 

Nigeria as the two countries in Africa presenting the best opportunities 

for business expansion in 2015. Coming barely one 

month since Kenya was ranked by Fortune Magazine amongst 

the seven economies best poised to succeed the BRICS as a 

growth frontier, it is likely to elevate further investor perception 

of the country. 

Nigeria’s Uncertainty Bodes Well for Kenya 

Uncertainty over Nigeria’s investment climate in the shortterm 

in view of the March 2015 election cycle and depressed 

oil prices is bound to prop Kenya further in investor consideration. 

Further, unlike Nigeria, Kenya has a much larger 

Middle-Class Population as 

% of Total Population 

Source: Africa Development Bank, StratLink Africa 

middle-class population 4 

(a popular target market 

for investors eyeing 

frontier markets) as a 

proportion of the entire 

population. 

This suggests Kenya has 

higher potential for 

consumer demand 

compared to Nigeria in 

the medium to longterm 

thereby pitching it 

in more favourable sight. 

4 The population that consumed between USD 2.0 and USD 20.0 per month 

www.stratlinkglobal.com 

StratLink Africa Ltd.| 3


We retain our 

February 2015 

view that the 

shilling is bound 

to remain weak 

exchanging within 

the 90.0 – 93.0 

units to the 

greenback in the 

near term. 

over Kenya’s state of preparedness and intelligence 

response. USA President, Barrack 

Obama, has however reiterated that he will 

visit the country in July 2015 in a move that 

is widely perceived as a much needed vote 

of confidence in the country’s anti-terror efforts. 

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 

Shilling Trends on Lows Last Seen in 2011 

Despite indications that the USD 688.0 Million 

Precautionary Loan from the International 

Monetary Fund (IMF) could be helping 

in propping foreign exchange reserves, 

the shilling slid to cross the 92.0 units of 

exchange to the greenback mark on March 

16th, 2015. The local unit has been under 

immense pressure and is now trending on 

lows last seen in 2011 when steady depreciation 

was brought about by commercial 

bank speculation. 

We retain our February 2015 view that the 

shilling is bound to remain weak exchanging 

within the 90.0 – 93.0 units to the greenback 

in the near term. 

Foreign Exchange Reserves vs 

Import Cover 

Noting that 2014 was a particularly challenging 

year for the economy with the main 

export commodities such as tea (21.0% of 

export earnings) weathering subdued prices 

and tourism beset by terror risks, investors 

should anticipate the shilling to remain 

weak in the near term. 

Shilling vs USD Exchange Rate 

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa 

We project the country’s balance of trade 

deficit to have widened by about 7.9% yearon-year 

to USD 8.2 Billion by close of 2014. 

In 2015, however, the trade balance deficit 

is likely to decline as the country is cushioned 

of a high oil import bill following the 

decline in global oil prices. Manufacturers 

are also poised to reap from the declining 

cost of production and boost export competitiveness 

in the regional market. 

Trade Balance Deficit 

Source: Central Bank of Kenya, StratLink Africa 

Domestic and External Factors to 

Depress Local Unit 

We expect the shilling to remain fragile driven 

principally by two factors: One, the state 

of the current account and notably a hangover 

of deterioration of the balance of payments 

following a challenging year in 2014. 

Source: World Bank, StratLink Africa 




USA Dollar Rally to Undermine the 

Shilling 

The second factor that is likely to undermine 

the value of the shilling is the strong 

rally by the greenback. The rally by the dollar 

has been driven by rising demand for the 

unit (USD) with 2014 largely characterized 

by indications of recovery from the recession. 

Consumer spending in Q4, 2014 rose 

by 4.2%, 100.0 bps higher than the same period 

in 2013 5 . 

Federal Funds Rate: Imminent Raise? 

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated 

to raise interest rates towards the end of 

Q2, 2015 (June/July). With the USA market 

potentially becoming more lucrative for 

savers and investors eyeing government 

borrowing, we assess that high demand for 

the greenback is likely to continue thereby 

undermining the strength of the shilling. 

DEBT MARKET UPDATE 

Rising liquidity in the money market has 

seen fixed income yields trend downwards 

in the period between February and March 

2015. Dealers report that maturities stood 

at about USD 564.9 Million in March 2015, 

a marked 73.3% higher than estimates of 

the January – February 2015 average with 

minimal reports of a mop up exercise by the 

Central Bank. 

Bloomberg BVAL Yields Index 

Nigeria Uncertainty Promises 

Dividend 

Peripherally, an adverse investment climate 

in Nigeria has also contributed to the downtrend 

in yields as foreign investors scout for 

a safer destination in view of the country’s 

election cycle and fiscal deterioration. 

We, however, do not expect the downtrend 

in yields to prolong owing to the uptick in 

inflation bound to be further aggravated 

by a protracted dry spell. Further, government 

borrowing is likely to remain elevated 

through the remaining period of financial 

year 2014/15. 

Infrastructure Bond March 2015 

Description 

Amount 

Offered (USD Mln) 272.5 

Received (USD Mln) 563.1 

Performance Rate 206.6% 

Yield to Maturity 11.7% 

Coupon Rate 11.0% 


Inflation in March 2015 stood at 6.3%, 70.0 

bps higher than the February 2015 rate. 

The Energy Regulatory Commission revised 

upwards petroleum product prices for the 

period March 14th, 2014 to April 15th, 2015, 

a move that could further inflict an uptrend 

on inflation. 

Inflation Trend 

With the USA 

market potentially 

becoming more 

lucrative for 

savers and 

investors eyeing 

government 

borrowing, we 

assess that high 

demand for 

the greenback 

is likely to 

continue thereby 

undermining the 

strength of the 

shilling. 


5 Bureau of Economic Analysis, USA Department of 

Commerce 


Central Bank is not reported to have intervened 

in the market through mopping of 

liquidity in the money market. We believe 

this is the principal reason that has seen 

the interbank rate trend as low as 5.8% in 

March 2015. 




Interbank Rate 


EQUITY MARKET UPDATE 

One: Companies Post Depressed 

Performance in 2014 

Media service provider, Nation, reported a 

2.9% decline in net profits for the full year 

ended 2014 to USD 26.8 Million with revenues 

remaining near flat at USD 145.4 Million. 

Similarly, top tier bank, Co-operative, 

saw its net profit drop by 7.0% to USD 91.0 

Million on the back of major restructuring in 

2014. CIC Insurance also reported a decline 

in net profit, by 16.6% in 2014, to USD 11.9 

Million. The decline in profit was occasioned 

by a 42.6% surge in total expenses to USD 

143.2 Million. 

Co-operative Bank vs Nation Media 

Share Price (Kes) 

+6.1 % 

NSE 20 Share Index 

change year-on-year 

NSE 20 Share Index Trend 

-3.5 % 

NSE 20 Share Index 

change month-onmonth 


NSE 20 Share Index Month-on-Month 



Such performance has played a major role 

in subduing aggregate market performance 

in March 2015. The performance points to 

an adverse business climate confronted by 

corporates in 2014. Notable strain on the 

business climate in 2014 stemmed from 

high terror risk that affected players in the 

service sector. 

Two: Capital Gains Tax Hangover 

The market has also been decelerated by 

uncertainty over the fate of the Capital 

Gains Tax that is likely to have left many 

investors adopting a wait and see stance. 

In February 2015, brokers threatened to 

suspend trading for a month over disagreement 

with the Kenya Revenue Authority on 

their role as collecting agents. 


It has been a bearish season at the exchange 

in what we assess can be attributed 

to two main factors: 



Financial Services to Prop Market 

Be that as it may, we expect the market to 

regain its bullish trend driven, notably, by 

sentiment around companies listed in the 

financial services segment majority of which 

reported bullish results for the year ended 

December 2014. Equity Bank Ltd posted a 

33.2% surge in net profit year-on-year to 

December 2014 to USD 183.5 Million. The 

bank’s Non-interest income accelerated by 

24.6% compared to 10.4% growth in Net Interest 

income, boding well for the bank in 

view of efforts to rein on high interest rates. 

Equity Bank Share Performance 


Kenya Commercial Bank Trails 

Equity Bank in Net Profit Growth 

Top tier lender, Kenya Commercial Bank, 

saw its net profit for the year ended December 

2014 grow by 27.8% to USD 172.8 Million. 

Non-interest Income grew by 17.6% to 

USD 516.4 Million compared to 7.5% growth 

in interest income. Investors’ anticipation of 

the bank’s future is likely to hinge on strategic 

partnerships targeting the Small and 

Medium Enterprise market. 




02. Tanzania 





Tempestuous Ride for Tanzania 

Preparations for the much awaited referendum 

hit a snag after the government suspended 

issuance of national identity cards 

citing shortage of funds and human capital. 

Noting that this came in quick succession to 

the suspension of biometric voter registration 

in parts of the country, the country’s 

political risk profile is likely to be impacted 

negatively as questions abound over the 

state of preparedness for carrying out free 

and fair referendum and election in 2015. 

Widening Rift as the Hour Draws Nigh 

The rift continues to widen over contentious 

issues pertaining the April 2015 referendum 

with the main opposition party (CHADEMA) 

calling for a boycott of the exercise. The opposition 

umbrella body (Ukawa Group) pulled 

out of the constitution review process following 

the unresolved question of having the document 

provide for a two or three tier government 

structure for the country going forward. 

The country is bound to remain in heightened 

political temperatures ahead of the referendum 

and the October 2015 election. Investors 

will be keenly following the passage or rejection 

of the new constitution and the aftermath 

given the impasse between the government 

and the Ukawa Group. 

Improved Donor Aid Props Outlook 

Donors, including World Bank and Africa 

Development Bank, have released 8.8% 

(USD 44.0 Mln) of the withheld donor support 

for the financial year 2014/15 following 

graft allegations involving top government 

officials. The move is likely to signal confidence 

in the remedial measures taken by 

the government and thereby elevate Tanzania’s 

short-term risk. Improvement in the 

country’s fiscal position, especially ahead of 

an election, could serve to mitigate growing 

risk. 


Majority of Sectors Report Strong 

Private Sector Credit Growth 

Credit to the transport and communication, 

trade, manufacturing, construction and hospitality 

sectors surged by double digits yearon-year 

to January 2015 pointing at high investment 

focus on the respective areas. The 

sectors are also likely to be benefiting from 

declining investor interest in agriculture 

(based on trends in credit flow to the sector). 

We expect below target growth by the agriculture 

sector to continue occasioning a shift 

in investment focus towards the service and 

construction sectors. 

The country is 

bound to remain 

in heightened 

political 

temperatures 

ahead of the 

referendum and 

the October 2015 

election. 


Employment Regulation 

Raffles Feathers 

On March 19th, 2015, parliament 

passed a new law effectively setting 

restrictions on employment of 

foreigners. The new law prescribes 

that companies hiring foreigners 

must satisfy authorities that the 

skills sought are not locally available. 

Whereas the new legislation 

is aimed at widening accessibility 

of employment opportunities to 

locals, it hazards posing a negative 

net effect to the economy. 

Integration: Further Within 

or Without? 

The new legislation is bound 

to fan further perception that 

Tanzania is on the periphery of 

regional integration efforts as it 

could decelerate the realization 

of free movement of persons as 

envisioned by the East African 

Community Common Market 

Protocol. In 2014, concern was rife 

that Tanzania was being left out of 

vital integration efforts as Kenya, 

Uganda and Rwanda signed a Defence 

Pact and Single Tourist Visa 

Pact in January 2014. In February 

2015, Uganda did away with work 

permit fees for Rwandese and 

Kenyan nationals. 

Adult (15 Yrs +) Literacy Levels 

Source: World Bank, UNICEF, StratLink Africa 





The passage of the law is likely to 

deteriorate the good will of citizens 

across the region in accelerating 

regional integration since it 

is widely perceived as exclusionist. 

Further to that, the law is bound 

to adversely impact Tanzania’s human 

capital base as indicated by 

the literacy levels comparison. 

From a skillset perspective, Tanzania 

also presents a comparatively 

high risk in access to labour force 

with tertiary education skillsets in 

view of Business Monitor International’s 

Operational Risk Index 

(With 0% representing the highest 

risk while 100% represents the 

lowest risk). As such, investors in 

Tanzania are bound to face challenges 

in accessing high skilled 

and technical labourers. 

BMI Tertiary Education Risk 

Index 

Source: BMI, StratLink Africa 

Tanzania’s risk profile is likely to 

deteriorate in view of the new legislation 

which could effectively impede 

access to high skilled labour. 

Assessment of the enrolment rate 

to tertiary institutions indicate that 

Tanzania is trailing Kenya. 

Enrolment to Tertiary 

Institutions 

Source: BMI, StratLink Africa 

Year-on-Year Growth in Private 

Sector Credit to Agriculture 

services and make Tanzania competitive 

against its regional peers. 

Financial Services Penetration (15Yrs+) 

Source: Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa 

The telephony segment of the economy has 

been vibrant with growing penetration and 

is poised to play an increasingly vital role 

in driving growth in the coming years. We 

expect growth to be strongly underpinned 

by investment in infrastructure (fuelling 

growth in the transport and construction 

sectors) and mobile telephony driven e- 

commerce solutions. 

Telephony penetration has increased from 

15.0% in 2005 to 67.0% in 2013 and should 

be central in increasing access to financial 


Agriculture Portends Risks to Growth 

Credit to the agriculture sector contracted, 

year-on-year, reflecting a general bearish 

outlook by investors. The country’s top 

two agricultural exports tobacco and coffee 

(5.9% and 3.4% of export earnings) confronted 

an adverse climate driven by growing 

health consciousness that is denting 




returns from tobacco and depressed prices 

that affected coffee. 

Agriculture Credit Growth Year-on-Year 

T-Bill Yields 

+37.3 % 

All Share Index 

year-on-year change 


With agriculture as the mainstay of the 

economy, depressed performance is bound 

to undermine growth momentum in the 

years ahead. 

Agriculture in the Tanzanian 

Economy 

Consideration 

Agriculture Size 

Size of GDP 24.7% 


The 91 Day paper yield declined by 370.0 

bps to 7.6% while the 182 Day paper yield 

declined by 420.0 bps to 9.2%. The 364 Day 

paper, on the other hand, saw its yield decline 

by 310.0 bps to close the month at 

10.3%. 

Average Bid-to-Cover Ratios 

-3.2 % 


month-on-month 

change 

Traditional Export 

Earnings 

20.0% 

National Food Demand 90.0% 

Employment of Labour 

Force 

75.0% 

Coupon Rate 11.0% 

Source: Tanzania Government, StratLink Africa 


In line with our forecast, inflation nudged 

upwards by a marginal 20.0 bps to 4.2% in 

February 2015 on the back of rising food 

costs. This notwithstanding, yields reported 

a considerable decline in March 2015 in 

what we assess is likely to have been driven 

by trends in government borrowing. We 

note that this decline comes on the back 

of development partners disbursing USD 

44.0 Billion of with-held donor funding that 

should have eased the strain on the country’s 

fiscal position. As such, the government 

is likely to have been under less pressure to 

borrow from the domestic market. 


Uptake of short term instruments has been 

constrained by tightening liquidity in the 

money market. The interbank rate closed 

March 2015 at 7.7%, 460.0 bps higher than 

it did February 2015. Liquidity is likely to be 

tightening driven by government intervention 

with foreign exchange dealers having 

reported strong dollar demand in March 

from importers. As such, the shilling has 

been weakened against major currencies, 

likely necessitating intervention by Bank of 

Tanzania. 




Liquidity is 

likely to be 

tightening driven 

by government 

intervention with 

foreign exchange 

dealers having 

reported strong 

dollar demand 

in March from 

importers. 

As such, the 

shilling has been 

weakened against 

major currencies, 

likely necessitating 

intervention by 

Bank of Tanzania. 

Interbank Rate and Volumes 


The local unit shed 12.2% year-on-year and 

1.6% month-on-month to close March 2015 

at 1,842.0 units against the greenback. 

Tanzania Shilling vs USD Exchange 

Dar es Salaam All Share Index 

Month-on-month 


The market has been bearish for the better 

part of March 2015 driven by a lull in corporate 

action before taking an upswing towards 

the end of the month. The uptrend 

came on the back of bullish results by Twiga 

Cement whose net profit grew by 50.0% 

year-on-year to December 2014 to USD 30.2 

Million. 

Twiga Cement 



Dar es Salaam All Share Index 


In the near term, we expect the market to 

exhibit sensitivity to the country’s political 

temperatures in the run-up to the April 

30th, 2015 referendum. The country remains 

stalemated as to the structure of administration 

going forward with the opposition 

threatening to boycott the exercise. 





03. Uganda 






Museveni Reshuffles Cabinet 

Oil Exploration: Setting the Stage 

The cabinet reshuffle at the start of March 

2015 came on the back of upheaval and 

a widening rift within the ruling party. As 

such, it has been widely deemed as a move 

The country is expected to issue oil licences, in the course of 

2015, for six oil blocks in the Albertine Graben reserves ahead 

of the targeted commercial exploration by 2018. Despite the 

plunge in global oil prices, we expect high investor interest in 

the country’s oil industry in view of the economy’s growth 

potential. 

Africa’s Proven Oil Reserves (Mln Barrels) 

Source: IEA, Chatham House, StratLink Africa 

What 6.5 Bln Barrels Means for Uganda 

Uganda’s proven oil reserves are estimated at 6.5 Billion 

barrels potentially pitching the country amongst Africa’s top oil 

producing economies in the years to come. The development 

could see Uganda replicate the Ghanaian experience post- 

2006 during which commercial exploration of oil accelerated 

foreign direct investment inflows. 

by President Museveni to re-align his cabinet 

in view of shifts in the political arena 

and less driven by need for change in policy 

direction. In September 2014, Museveni 

dropped three year Prime Minister, Amama 

Mbabaazi, from the cabinet following reported 

strained relations in view of 2016 

Presidential ambitions. 

The country’s political risk profile remains 

favourable at the moment with a likelihood 

of rising temperatures in the run-up to the 

2016 election. Investors are likely to assume 

cautious positions if the country’s policy 

agenda is eclipsed by election cycle activity. 

The succession, or continuity, of Museveni 

is the dominating question with indications 

pointing at a likelihood of him gunning for a 

fifth term. 


Monetary Stability Sees Policy Rate 

Retained at 11.0% 

Bank of Uganda has retained its benchmark 

rate at 11.0% signalling perceived stability 

in the monetary environment especially 

from the price levels front. Monetary adjustments 

in the last three years have yielded 

a desirable transmission effect in the price 

levels with inflation trending downwards 

from a high of 25.0% in Q1, 2012 to low single 

digits in Q1, 2015. Investors are bound 

to hold a favourable view of the economy 

as consumption power stands to be buoyed 

and cost of doing business mitigated by low 

inflation. 

Inflation vs Monetary Benchmark Rate 

FDI Inflows (USD Mln) 

Source: Bank of Uganda, StratLink Africa 

Source: UNCTAD 2014, StratLink Africa 




Risks Lurk on the Horizon 

Prevailing weather patterns could, however, 

reverse the trend of inflation in Uganda as 

parts of East Africa grapple with mounting 

food insecurity. In Kenya, for instance, 

below average October – November 2014 

short rains and a prolonged dry spell in Q1, 

2015 is occasioning food insecurity in parts 

of the country. Uganda could experience 

rising food demand from Kenya having the 

net effect of nudging inflation upwards. 

In Q1, 2014, total volume of informal exports 

of maize and dry beans to Kenya is 

reported to have surged by 106.0% and 

231.0% (year-on-year) as production of both 

fell below target in Kenya in 2013 6 . 

Banks Respond to Monetary 

Adjustments 

Monetary policy adjustments have also 

yielded desirable trends in the cost of credit 

in the economy with commercial bank 

lending rates trending below the five year 

average of 22.6%. Despite remaining high 

in double digits, the trend of lending rates 

augurs well for the country’s investment climate 

as it eases enterprises’ access to capital 

for expansion. 

Average Commercial Bank Lending Rates 

6 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group, Market Analysis 

Sub-Group April 2014 


We expect lending rates to trend to as low 

as 18.0% - 20.0% in the medium term in an 

apparent correction following an aberration 

between 2011 and 2012. In the period, the 

country’s investment climate was negatively 

impacted by a spike in inflation to as high 

as 25.0%. 

Shilling: Still in the Woods 

Despite the stable monetary environment 

from a price level and cost of credit standpoint, 

the shilling has remained under pressure 

largely driven by the strengthening 

greenback. We note, however, that the local 

unit has been recouping lost ground in the 

recent past with Bank of Uganda reported 

to have been selling dollars to support the 

shilling. 

Uganda Shilling vs USD Exchange 


-14.4 % 

Uganda Shilling 


-1.3 % 

Uganda Shilling 


change 

We expect lending 

rates to trend to 

as low as 18.0% 

- 20.0% in the 

medium term 

in an apparent 

correction 

following an 

aberration 

between 2011 

and 2012. In 

the period, 

the country’s 

investment climate 

was negatively 

impacted by a 

spike in inflation 

to as high as 

25.0%. 

6 Food Security & Nutrition Working Group, Market Analysis 

Sub-Group April 2014 




Dealers report 

that March 

was equally 

characterized by 

comparatively 

lower demand 

for the greenback 

thereby helping in 

strengthening the 

local unit. 


Yields continue to trend upwards in the 

T-Bill market in what we believe can be 

premised on inflation expectations by investors. 

One, inflation is bound to trend 

upwards in the coming months despite remaining 

in favourable low single digits. This 

could be driven by either domestic factors 

such as monetary policy intervention or increased 

money supply in view of the 2016 

election or external factors such as changes 

in the trend of global oil prices and food demand 

from neighbouring states. 

T-Bill Yields 

Overnight Interbank Rate 


With the balance of trade projected to 

weaken further in 2015 and 2016, however, 

the shilling is bound to confront headwinds 

against major currencies. 

Balance of Trade Deficit 

+36.5 % 




- 1.5 % 



change 

The 91 Day and 182 Day paper closed the 

month at 11.4% and 13.3% respectively, 

representing 70.0 bps month-on-month 

surge by both. The 364 Day paper saw its 

yield rise by 110.0 bps to 13.6%. 

Liquidity Tightens 

The money market experienced relative 

tightening of liquidity as Bank of Uganda 

moved to support the shilling which came 

under pressure from the strengthening 

greenback. Dealers report that March was 

equally characterized by comparatively lower 

demand for the greenback thereby helping 

in strengthening the local unit. 

Source: Business Monitor International, StratLink Africa 





Uganda Stock Exchange All Share Index 

Umeme Ltd Share Performance 



UGSE All Share Month-on-month 


Locally listed counters have been on a lull 

sending the market to comparatively tepid 

performance through March 2015. Electricity 

distributor, Umeme Ltd, accounting for 

70.1%, of market turnover during the period 

registered a downtrend that weighed on the 

market in the first half of the month. 

In the latter half of the month the market 

exhibited an uptick in what we assess is likely 

to have been driven by cross-listed banks 

from the Kenyan exchange. Kenya Commercial 

Bank reported a rebound of its Uganda 

subsidiary back to profitability while Equity 

Bank reported a 346.0% year-on-year increase 

in the consolidated profit its subsidiaries 

including Uganda. 




04. Rwanda 





Unease over FDLR Movement 

The FDLR rebel movement is bound to keep 

Rwanda’s political risk profile on the radar 

following the sentencing of eleven persons 

on March 12th, 2015 for an alleged plot to 

topple the government. Rwanda’s political 

climate is pervaded by the 2017 election 

and the Kagame continuity versus succession 

question. Insurgent activity by FDLR, 

whether actual or perceived, is bound to 

deteriorate Rwanda’s political risk profile 

and stoke jitters amongst investors. Risk is 

likely to be further heightened by uncertainty 

over MONUSCO’s 7 involvement in helping 

the Democratic Republic of Congo military 

in operations against FDLR. 

The sentencing might also be construed by 

some as a means by the government to stifle 

dissent. Concern abounds over the state 

of freedom of expression in Rwanda with 

Belgium having with-held USD 50.0 Million 

in donor funding for failure to uphold press 

freedom. 


Economy Grows by 7.0% in 2014 

The economy shrugged off the after-effects 

of the 2012 – 2013 donor aid shock to accelerate 

GDP growth by 240.0 bps, year-onyear, 

to 7.0% in 2014. The uptick signals 

steady recovery of the economic climate 

which, coupled with a decade of pro-investment 

policy initiatives, is likely to attract investor 

interest in 2015. We note, however, 

that growth still stands below the fourteen 

years average (2000 – 2014) by 90.0 bps indicating 

the economy is still punching below 

its weight. Despite reassuring growth, key 

sectors of the economy are performing below 

the historical average. 


Credit Risk Ratings to Buoy Climate 

It is promising to be an exciting year for Rwanda’s business 

environment with improved ratings by agencies, Standard & 

Poor’s and Fitch, likely to elevate investor perception of the 

economy. The March 2015 revision of the economy’s longterm 

credit default rating from B to B+ by Standard & Poor’s 

comes in succession to Fitch’s January 2015 B+ (Stable Outlook) 

rating. Both have been driven by perception of mitigated 

donor funding shocks that are adversely impacted the business 

climate in the last two years. Corporates faced a challenging 

period between 2013 and 2014 as hitches in receipt 

of donor aid crunched aggregate demand in the economy and 

slowed down execution of projects. 

Real GDP Growth 

Source: National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa 

Good but Not Good Enough: 2014 

Growth Dissected 

Whereas 2014’s economic growth represents 

marked improvement from 2013, 

sector analysis reveals the economy is yet 

to optimize its potential. Growth in the agriculture 

sector stood 200.0 bps below aggregate 

economic growth and 100.0 bps below 

the sector’s fourteen years’ average growth. 

Given that the sector accounts for 70.0% of 

export earnings, 36.0% of GDP and employs 

an estimated 90.0% of the labour force (directly 

and indirectly) 8 , sub-optimal growth is 

bound to drag the economy. 

Trade relations 

between Rwanda 

and its key export 

destination 

(Democratic 

Republic of 

Congo) faced 

challenges 

in 2014 with 

Rwanda’s Trade 

Ministry decrying 

non-tariff 

barriers from 

DRC . At the same 

time, Rwanda’s 

informal trade 

with Tanzania 

suffered an alltime 

low in 2014 

with exports 

declining by 

40.0%. 

7 United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in 

Democratic Republic of Congo 

8 Institute of Policy Analysis Rwanda 




Budget estimates 

now stand at USD 

2.6 Billion for the 

financial year 

underway. 

Agriculture Sector Growth 

Rwanda’s Main Export Destinations 

9.2% 13.0% 

8.0% 

14.0% 

34.0% 

22.0% 


Industry: Trailing the Growth Charge 

Industry grew by 6.0% in 2014, 300.0 bps 

below the fourteen years’ average. We note 

that vital sub-sectors such as manufacture 

of food; manufacture of beverage and alcohol; 

and manufacture of chemicals contracted 

by 1.0%, 5.0% and 3.0%, respectively, 

negatively impacting the sector’s aggregate 

momentum. 

Industry Growth 

Tanzania DRC Kenya 

China Malaysia Others 

Source: OECD Data, StratLink Africa 


T-Bill yields have continued to decline as 

the country’s inflation trended further below 

the 5.0% mark to close February 2015 

at 1.5%. Inflation stands at unprecedented 

lows in the economy which coupled with 

improved donor aid inflows for budgetary 

purposes are weighing down yields in the 

market. 

T-Bill Yields 


Trade relations between Rwanda and its key 

export destination (Democratic Republic of 

Congo) faced challenges in 2014 with Rwanda’s 

Trade Ministry decrying non-tariff barriers 

from DRC 9 . At the same time, Rwanda’s 

informal trade with Tanzania suffered an 

all-time low in 2014 with exports declining 

by 40.0% 10 . 

9 Rwanda Eye January 17th, 2015 

Source: Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa 

Yields could, however, exhibit marginal uptick 

in the near term following the government’s 

plan to increase domestic borrowing 

in view of a 0.4% upward revision of 

the 2014/15 budget. Budget estimates now 

stand at USD 2.6 Billion for the financial 

year underway. 

10 The East African February 27th, 2015 




Amount Borrowed through T-Bills 

(USD Mln) 


Rwanda Stock Exchange All Share Index 

- 6.0 % 




The government has raised USD 21.8 Million 

through a three year bond (FXD1/2015/3Yrs) 

that registered moderate performance in 

attracting investor interest. The proceeds 

should also help in executing expenditure 

plans for the remaining part of 2014/15. 


RSE All Share Index Month-on-month 

+0.0 % 



change 

FXD1/2015/3Yrs Breakdown (USD Mln) 

Description 

Value 

Amount Offered 21.8 

Amount Received 23.1 

Performance Rate 106.0% 

YTM 11.7% 

Coupon 11.6% 


High Liquidity in Money Market 

Demand for T-Bill instruments is likely to be 

kept high by increasing liquidity in the money 

market. The interbank rate has declined 

by 169.0 bps between February 2014 and 

February 2015. 

Interbank Rate 


The market continues to perform below its 

potential undermined, to a large extent, by 

Bralirwa’s activity. The beer manufacturer 

has confronted challenges following an adverse 

business environment in its main export 

market – Democratic Republic of Congo. 

We, however, hold a bullish view of the exchange 

in the long-term given the comparatively 

small number of listings and potential 

for corporates to tap into the capital markets 

to raise capital. Kenya’s largest bank by customer 

base cross-listed in February 2015. 

Bralirwa Share Performance 






05. Ethiopia 





El Sisi Visit Bodes Well for Political 

Climate 

The March 2015 visit to Ethiopia by Egyptian 

president, Abdel Fattah el Sisi, and address 

to the Parliament signifies strengthening relations 

between the two states. This development 

bodes well for Ethiopia especially 

in view of the construction of the Grand Renaissance 

Dam that has occasioned frosty 

relations between Ethiopia and Egypt. 

The Potential of Ethiopia-Egypt Ties 

The improved relations come, auspiciously, 

at a time when Ethiopia is gradually adopting 

a more liberal approach to its economic 

policy. As such, improved bilateral ties between 

the two could present a new investment 

frontier. Egypt and Ethiopia are Africa’s 

third and tenth largest economies, at 

GDP sizes of USD 284.9 Billion and USD 49.9 

Billion respectively, and the third and second 

most populous countries. Investors will 

be keen to harness the vast market and potential 

engendered by improving trade ties 

by the two economies. 


Monetary Policy Remains Tight 

The country’s monetary policy remains 

tight with a view to checking inflation and 

keeping the local currency (the Birr) stable 

against major currencies. Broad money 

supply grew by a marginal 2.3% between 

Q4, 2013/14 and Q1, 2014/15 and by 28.4% 

year-on-year. Inflation is trending between 

7.0% and 8.0% aided, in part, by the 

favourable trend in global oil prices. Food 

shortages occasioned by adverse weather 

conditions for the better part of Q1, 2015, 

however, threaten to push inflation upwards 

in the coming months. 


Joining the Technological Superhighway 

The roll out of fourth generation (4G) internet connectivity 

by the state-run mobile service provider 

augurs well for the country’s business climate. Poor 

internet connectivity in markets that are increasingly 

shifting to the e-commerce platform presents a 

major challenge to businesses eyeing Sub-Saharan 

Africa. 

Ethiopia Trails Peer Economies in Internet 

Penetration 

Ethiopia posts some of Africa’s lowest rates of internet 

penetration which in part has been driven by 

state control 

of the industry. 

In Kenya, service 

provider, 

Safaricom Ltd, 

rolled out the 

4G spectrum 

in December 

2014 expected 

to benefit consumers 

and 

Internet Penetration 

(% of Population) 

Source: InternetLiveStats, StratLink Africa 

investors with high speed connectivity. We expect 

Ethiopia to be more aggressive in diversifying and 

privatizing the telecommunications industry in the 

coming years. 

Widely Unexplored Potential 

Ethiopia’s low internet penetration can be attributed 

to the state mobile 

telephony subscription 

in the Per 100 Persons 

Mobile Phone Subscriptions 

economy which is 

low even by Sub- 

Saharan Africa 

standards. This, 

however, indicates 

widely unexplored 

potentially as far 


as harnessing mobile 

telephony and 

internet penetration is concerned. Policy makers and 

investors are likely to be keen to leverage on this opportunity 

to add impetus to the country’s economic 

growth momentum. 

Compared to other regions in the world, the mobile 




The country’s 

monetary policy 

remains tight 

with a view to 

checking inflation 

and keeping the 

local currency 

(the Birr) stable 

against major 

currencies. 


phone plays a more central role as 

a driver of commerce and economic 

growth in Africa. A survey conducted 

by Nielsen in 2014 indicates that Africa 

posts the highest preference for the 

mobile handset as the choice device 

for online transactions. 

Choice Channel for E-Commerce 

Ethiopia Birr vs USD Exchange 


Source: Nielsen 2014, StratLink Africa 

Inflation Trend 


Birr Exhibits Resilience 

Despite remaining under immense pressure 

from the strengthening greenback, the 

Birr has demonstrated marked resilience. 

The local unit shed 5.2% year-on-year and 

0.1% month-on-month to close March 2015 

at 20.4 units to the USA dollar. The local 

currency is likely to be drawing its strength 

from the USD 1.0 Billion December 2014 Eurobond 

proceeds. 




06. Angola 






Judicial Reforms: Will they fit the Bill? 

Judicial reforms are set to commence in the 

course of the first half of 2015 with a view to 

strengthening adherence to human rights 

and address delayed judgement of cases. 

Agriculture to Shape Business Focus 

As the country grapples with depressed oil prices, investors 

are likely to shift focus to sectors driving economic diversification. 

Agriculture presents a lucrative sector as the country 

looks to address a high food import bill. 

Agriculture as % of GDP 

Source: EcoBank Update, StratLink Africa 

Angola’s agricultural productivity stands below that of peer 

economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and could present a viable 

investment opportunity given high population growth rate 

(3.1% per annum as at 2013 11 ). Between 2000 and 2010, 

Angola’s cereal yield per hectare accelerated at 60.0 bps 

slower than the Sub-Saharan Africa average at 12.5%. 

Cereal Yield (Kg/Hectare) 

‘00 ‘10 Variance 

In November 2014, Amnesty International 

accused security forces of stifling dissent 

against the government and extra-judicial 

killings. This points to an environment of 

constrained democratic freedom that is 

bound to negatively impact the country’s 

political risk perception amongst investors. 

Constitution: Teething Questions 

Despite a stable political environment since 

2002 and adoption of a new constitution in 

2010, a number of factors are likely to keep 

the country’s political climate fragile in the 

coming years. One, incumbent President, 

Jose Eduardo dos Santos, has been at the 

helm since 1979 with the new constitution 

having allowed him to seek another five 

year term in 2012. 

Likely Groundswell of Discontent 

In the run-up to the next election (2017), 

the opposition is likely to capitalize on the 

incumbent’s prolonged reign in eliciting 

public discontent and clamour for change. 

Coupled with a deteriorating economic 

environment occasioned by the plunge 

in oil prices, the government risks facing 

a groundswell of dissatisfaction from the 

masses between 2015 and 2016. 

Ruling MPLA saw its margin of victory in the 

last elections decrease as the main opposition 

party, UNITA, managed to increase its 

share of votes cast. 

Election History: Percentage of Votes 

‘08 ‘12 

MPLA 81.6% 71.8% 

UNITA 10.4% 18.7% 

Others 8.0% 9.5% 

Source: FES Policy Analysis, StratLink Africa 

South Africa 2,755.0 4,162.0 16.8% 

Malawi 1,676.0 2,206.0 14.6% 

Zambia 1,682.0 2,547.0 16.8% 

Kenya 1,375.0 1,613.0 13.0% 

SSA Average 1,131.0 1,336.0 13.1% 

Angola 572.0 644.0 12.5% 

11 World Bank Estimates 2014 






Oil Prices and Austerity Pangs 

The government is seeking USD 1.0 billion 

in loans from World Bank and international 

lenders 12 in what we believe signals strained 

fiscal balance in view of the plummet in oil 

prices. Further, the loan are likely to be 

play the ‘precautionary role’ of boosting 

the country’s dwindling foreign exchange 

reserves and helping cushion investors 

against foreign exchange risk. 

OPEC Average Monthly Basket Price 

(USD) 

Kwanza vs USD Exchange 


Whereas the Kwanza is one of the currencies 

from Sub-Saharan Africa oil rich economies 

that has best weathered the slump in 

prices, it has lost resilience displayed in the 

first half of 2014. 

Oil Rich Currency Comparison 

Whereas the 

Kwanza is one 

of the currencies 

from Sub-Saharan 

Africa oil rich 

economies 

that has best 

weathered the 

slump in prices, it 

has lost resilience 

displayed in the 

first half of 2014. 

Currency 

Central African Franc 

(Gabon) 

Year-on-Year Change 

-29.30% 


In February 2015, the government reviewed 

the benchmark oil price for 2015 downwards 

by 50.6% to USD 40.0/barrel and 

slashed 2015’s projected government expenditure 

by 20.0% to USD 56.0 billion. This 

is in line with our November 2014 forecast 

that anticipate more austerity measures 

(beyond slashing fuel subsidies) if oil prices 

continued to plunge. 

Loan to Help Prop the Kwanza 

Much as the proceeds from the loan are 

likely to be deployed towards meeting revenue 

gaps and funding the budget, we anticipate 

that part of the funds will be targeted 

at foreign exchange reserves. 

This will be in the interest of cushioning investors 

from foreign exchange risk as the 

local currency continues to depreciate. 

Naira (Nigeria) -21.10% 

Kwanza (Angola) -9.10% 

YTM 11.7% 

Coupon 11.6% 


Despite remaining in surplus, the balance 

of trade is likely to deteriorate to the 26.0% 

- 25.0% of GDP in a manner replicating the 

deterioration following the 2008/09 oil price 

plunge. High importation of capital goods 

as the economy looks to address existing 

infrastructural challenges is also going to 

add pressure onto the country’s balance of 

trade deterioration. 

12 

Financial Times (February 05th, 2015) 




The depreciation 

of the Kwanza 

poses a threat to 

inflation in the 

coming months. 

With the food 

index constitution 

a considerable 

portion of 

the country’s 

Consumer Price 

Index (CPI), a rise 

in the cost of food 

imports is bound 

to negatively 

impact inflation. 

Import Breakdown 2013 

MONETARY POLICY 

OUTLOOK 

Inflation Favourable but Faces Risks 

Inflation continues to trend favourably 

within the 7.0% - 9.0% target band in what 

we assess has been driven by the September 

2014 monetary tightening that saw the 

policy rate hiked by 20.0 bps to 9.0%. In line 

with our Q4, 2014 forecast, inflation nudged 

upwards between September and December 

2014 on the back of a slash of the fuel 

subsidy program. The taming of inflation at 

within the 7.4% - 7.5% horizon is likely to 

buoy investor confidence in Angola’s policy 

response in view of a challenging macroeconomic 

environment driven by the plunge in 

oil prices. 

Inflation vs Central Bank 

Benchmark Rate 

Source: EcoBank 2015, StratLink Africa 

The spill-over effect of the weakening Kwanza 

is bound to inflict upward pressure on inflation 

owing to the rising cost of imports. 

The country’s reliance on food imports (Angola 

imports at least 50.0% of the food it 

consumes) renders it especially vulnerable 

to imported inflation when the currency depreciates. 

Balance of Trade as % of GDP 


As indicated, however, the depreciation of 

the Kwanza poses a threat to inflation in 

the coming months. With the food index 

constitution a considerable portion of the 

country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a rise 

in the cost of food imports is bound to negatively 

impact inflation. 

CPI Composition 

Angola 

Kenya 

Food Index 46.6% 39.4% 

Source: IMF 2014, StratLink Africa 

Energy Index 12.5% 16.6% 

Transport 7.9% 7.3% 

Others 33.0% 36.7% 

Source: Bureaus of Statistics, StratLink Africa 




Stratlink Africa Ltd - Who We Are 

StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company with Capital Raising Advisory, 

Corporate Advisory and Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in the 

growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and partner with our clients to execute 

their vision by providing quality services and access to capital. We recognize opportunities 

in the region and connect the fastest growing middle market companies with 

leading global investment banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the 

importance of making informed decisions and leverage our regional knowledge to the 

advantage of our clients. 

Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic research 

Within our purview of coverage are nine economies – Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, 

Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and analysis 

of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic environment, debt and equity markets. 

We also conduct sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on market 

landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well as potential challenges. 

Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data 

Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile team traversing the fields of economics 

and finance with qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The team 

is backed by subscription to reliable databases such as Business Monitor International, 

Bloomberg, Thomson One Research, World Economics and The World Today. As such, 

our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in an increasingly dynamic region. Further, 

we reach out to relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central Banks, ministries 

and state departments. 

Authoritative voice on regional economics 

StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary and opinion on issues 

pertaining Sub-Saharan African economies and investment. Reputable media including 

CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg have reached out to the company 

for opinion and analysis. 

Where we are based 

Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in New York, Kampala and Kuala 

Lumpur. 




StratLink-Africa Team 

Konstantin Makarov – Managing Director 

konstantin.makarov@stratlinkglobal.com 

Dina Farfel – Partner 

dfarfel@stratlinkglobal.com 

Fredd Kambo – Director Transaction Advisory Services 

fredd.kambo@stratlinkglobal.com 

Poonam Vora - Associate 

poonam.vora@stratlinkglobal.com 

Jackson Mwatha - Senior Analyst 

jackson.mwatha@stratlinkglobal.com 

Samuel Odero - Analyst 

samuel.oyier@stratlinkglobal.com 

Lewis Muguro - Analyst 

lewis.muguro@stratlinkglobal.com 

Julians Amboko – Research Analyst 

julians.amboko@stratlinkglobal.com 




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Africa Market Update - April 2015

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