Climate Change, Adaptation, and Conflict - FESS :: Foundation for ...

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13sea level rise, severe weather events,water resources management, andthe urban heat island effect. Each ofthese will have specific consequencesunique to cities, owing to highpopulation concentrations and thelack of physical and socialinfrastructure.Sea Level Rise and SevereWeatherApproximately two thirds of theworld’s cities with populationsgreater than 5 million people are atleast partially in a coastal zone, and ahigher percentage of developingcountry cities are located along acoast than those in the developedworld (Satterthwaite et al. 2007).Africa, Asia, Latin America, and theCaribbean all have large populationsliving in low-lying areas that will bevulnerable to sea level rise andincreased storm surges. For instance,6 of the 10 largest cities in Africa arelocated on the coast (UN HABITAT2008b). Sea level rise can cause saltwater intrusion into groundwatersupplies, making it unfit for humanconsumption and agricultural use.The impacts of storm surges oncoastal cities are projected to vary byregion, with the largest percentage ofaffected land area in Latin Americaand the Caribbean, the highestpercentage of affected population inthe Middle East and North Africa, andthe greatest impact on GDP in EastAsia and the Pacific (Dasgupta et al.2009). According to one study of 84developing countries, if storm surgesintensify by 10 percent in the comingdecades, the potential inundationzones of coastal areas will subject anadditional 52 million people toflooding and other ill effects(Dasgupta et al. 2009). Waterinfrastructure in coastal cities ishighly vulnerable to storms andflooding because it often isnonexistent, inadequate, or outdated,especially in slums and low-incomeurban areas. Such gaps increaseexposure to the “potentially deadly”effects of storms and floods(Dasgupta et al. 2009).Water ManagementAs more people move to cities, landis converted to dwellings and roads,which increases the amount of areacovered by impervious surfaces.Packed earth, asphalt, and concretereduce the amount of rainwater thatcan be absorbed into the ground.Rainfall runs off these surfaces intorivers and streams, overwhelmingtheir capacity and resulting inflooding. The problem iscompounded by lack of properdrainage networks. Flooding resultsin health problems such as cholera,dysentery, and other waterborneillnesses. A study by Action Aid onflooding in six of Africa’s urban areasfound that “there are few…collectivemechanisms either for reducing floodrisks or for managing floods oncethey do happen (Action Aid 2006).The provision of fresh water alreadyposes significant challenges for manycities. Growing populations,combined with the effects of climatechange, are likely to worsen waterscarcity. For example, the Peruviancapital of Lima obtains much of itswater supply from glacial melt in theCordillera Blanca. Climate changeexperts predict that the glacierslocated below 5,500 feet maydisappear completely by 2015, withsignificant negative effects on theurban water supply (INRENA 2005).Other cities rely on groundwatersupplies from distant watershedsbecause local supplies are eitherdepleted or polluted. Climate changeeffects in rural areas may impact theresources upon which urban areasdepend.Urban Heat Island EffectTemperatures in urban areas can beas much as 6˚C higher than insurrounding rural areas. Loss ofvegetation that would normallyprovide a measure of coolingcombined with large numbers of heatproducing-appliances, automobileexhaust, and construction, drive upair temperatures. Cities are likely tobecome even hotter, the result ofwhich “will be very hot conditions formore than half of the world’spopulation” (Scott 2006). Abnormallyhigh temperatures can be deadly,especially for vulnerable groups suchas children, the elderly, and the poor.In 2003, the European heat wavekilled an estimated 35,000 people(Larsen 2003). The consequences fordeveloping countries may be muchmore pronounced given the lowlevels of disaster preparedness andthe extreme vulnerability of millionsof urban residents.TRADITIONAL COPINGSTRATEGIESWill the Same Strategies StillWork?Humans have evolved numerousmechanisms for coping withenvironmental change and resourcelimitations. For example, pastoralistsmove from location to locationseeking optimal food and waterresources for their livestock. In timesof environmental stress, these groupsmay be required to increase theirrange and travel further distances.Agriculturalists also attempt to copewith environmental stress by movingto more productive land whenfeasible (PAES 2003). However, inmany parts of the world, groups nowface the reality that these copingstrategies may no longer be anoption. In the case of pastoralistgroups, traveling further afield may bemade much more difficult by newroads and the development of largescalecommercial agriculture.Agricultural groups may find thatshifting their plots to a more fertilelocation will bring them into conflict13
14with other groups. Other strategies,such as lengthening fallow periods orselling assets, may not be feasible orprovide the same cushion as in thepast.Population Pressure and LandDegradationIn recent decades, dramaticpopulation increases in developingcountries have contributedsignificantly to land degradation andfood insecurity. As householdsincrease in number, the need foradditional food production leads toland fragmentation, shortened fallowperiods, and the intensification ofagricultural production. These factorsultimately undermine the fertility ofthe land and reduce per capitaagricultural output. One frequentlyemployed strategy to address theseshortfalls has been migration,whether of households or entirecommunities. In the past, this wasoften a viable option. Today,however, many groups find it difficultto locate to new areas that are bothunclaimed and agriculturallyproductive.Pastoralist coping mechanisms areequally at risk. As productive land hasbecome progressively scarcer andvaluable, agricultural communitieshave become less tolerant ofincreasing numbers of pastoralgroups grazing on their land. InDarfur, many of the clashes that haveoccurred began as disputes overaccess to agricultural and grazing land(UNEP 2007). Climate change mayintensify such dynamics byaccelerating the rate at which landbecomes too degraded to meetsubsistence needs. As groups turn totraditional coping strategies, there isan increased risk that they will bebrought into competition and conflictwith other groups.Levels of AdaptationClimate change adaptation strategieswill be necessary at all levels, from14internationally funded projects andnational government policy responsesto community-level projects andhousehold coping strategies. To theextent that these initiatives buildresilience and response capacity,bolster human security, and reducegrievances, they can be instrumentalin avoiding climate change-inducedconflict.Internationally FundedAdaptationIn 2007, USAID produced a guidancemanual for development planning,“Adapting to Climate Variability andChange,” whose aim is to help“Missions and other partners tounderstand how climate change mayaffect their project outcomes andidentify adaptation options” (USAID2007). The Australian Agency forInternational Development (AusAID),the Canadian InternationalDevelopment Agency (CIDA), theUnited Kingdom’s Department forInternational Development (DfID),the Deutsche Gesellschaft furTechnische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ),the Japan International CooperationAgency (JICA), and SwedishInternational DevelopmentCooperation Agency (SIDA), amongother bilateral donors, also havebegun addressing climate changeissues and have startedmainstreaming climate concerns intoforthcoming and existing projectdesigns. Similarly, among multilateraldonors, the World Bank, AsianDevelopment Bank, AfricanDevelopment Bank, Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank, and the G8 havemajor initiatives on climate change.All provide funds to supportadaptation projects of various types(see Appendix 1 for short summariesof some of these bilateral andmultilateral initiatives). However,pilot programs and projects are yetto appear that are designed explicitlyto test the links between climatechange and conflict.Government-Level AdaptationPolicies implemented by governmentscan help strengthen communityadaptation and significantly increaseresilience. The development of suchpolicies is being encouraged throughthe creation of National AdaptationProgrammes of Action (NAPAs)under the auspices of the UnitedNations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC).According to the UNFCCCsecretariat, “NAPAs provide aprocess for Least DevelopedCountries (LDCs) to identify priorityactivities that respond to their urgentand immediate needs with regard toadaptation to climatechange” (UNFCCC n.d.).NAPAsNAPAs are a way for developingcountries to address climate changepriorities for which delay could“increase vulnerability or lead toincreased costs at a laterstage” (UNFCC n.d.). To date, 41countries have submitted a NAPA. 2Included in each is a list of prioritizedactivities that respond to the issuespresented in the report. Examples ofthe proposed projects includecountry-wide surveys of availablewater resources, improving weathermonitoring systems, restoring criticalecosystems, and investing insustainable agricultural development.Upon completion, the GlobalEnvironment Facility (GEF) workswith countries to develop projectconcepts, provides monetary supportfor selected projects, and assistscountries in implementation.Although the NAPAs are a goodpoint of departure for developingcountries to begin thinking about andresponding to the challenges ofclimate change, their effectiveness asadaptation tools remains to beseen. Moving from analysis toimplementation will be difficult. LDCsare by definition countries that havelimited budgetary resources and
Page 1 and 2: CONTENTClimate Change, Adaptation,
Page 3: Climate Change, Adaptation, and Con
Page 6 and 7: EXECUTIVE SUMMARYTHREATS TO STABILI
Page 8 and 9: 3evidence that they are meeting the
Page 10 and 11: 55increasing global temperatures ma
Page 12 and 13: 7mass migrations and more frequentc
Page 14 and 15: 9incidence of conflict. Both rainfe
Page 16 and 17: 11governments to respond to othercr
Page 20 and 21: 15weak institutional capacities.Imp
Page 22 and 23: 17contribute to instability, andpot
Page 24 and 25: 19ideologies” (CNA Corporation200
Page 26 and 27: 21developing countries as a problem
Page 28 and 29: 23economic indicators (Sida 2008).
Page 30 and 31: 25stakeholders will be almostnonexi
Page 32 and 33: 27impacts, climate-related and nonc
Page 34 and 35: 29disseminate information, increase
Page 36 and 37: 31Future Conditions. In Climate Cha
Page 38 and 39: 33Podesta, John and Peter Ogden. 20
Page 40 and 41: 35for use on adaptation projects,al
Page 42 and 43: 37and International Security and Ce
Page 44 and 45: 3939
Page 48: U.S. Agency for International Devel

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