Climate Change, Adaptation, and Conflict - FESS :: Foundation for ...

16POTENTIAL PATHWAYS TOCONFLICT“The threat of conflict isgreater in areas wherethere are pre-existinggovernance problemsand low institutionalcapacity.”16IMPLICATIONS OFCLIMATE CHANGE FORCONFLICTThe relationship posited between theconsequences of climate change andviolent conflict has its roots in theenvironmental security paradigm.After two decades of scholarship andanalysis, the roles that naturalresource management andenvironmental change sometimes playas factors contributing to insecurity,instability, and violence are nowwidely acknowledged. Climate changehas been incorporated to somedegree in these discussions, but theytypically focus on more immediateinstances of water scarcity, landscarcity, or conversely, resourceabundance. More recently, however,as scientific evidence continues toaccumulate, academics, think tanks,and development agencies haveraised the profile of climate changeand produced reports focusing moreclearly on the potential for climatechange to contribute to variousforms of violent conflict (Reuveny2007; Purvis and Busby 2004; WBGU2008; CNA Corporation 2007;Campbell et al. 2007; CARE andMaplecroft 2008; and Smith andVivekananda 2007).This body of literature exploresmultiple causal pathways, with climatechange viewed as one of a number ofvariables interacting with others inany given scenario leading toviolence. In these scenarios, however,it is weak, corrupt, fragile, or failedgovernments that are nearlyubiquitous critical factors that causeor allow grievances to develop,mobilizations to occur, and violenceto erupt.Whether through slow incrementalchanges in weather patterns thataccumulate over time or as the resultof abrupt shocks such as naturalhazards, there are two general pathsfor climate change and conflict thatare identified:First, climate change could intensifyenvironmental or resource problemsthat communities are facing already,exacerbating grievances,overwhelming coping capacities, andat times spurring forced migration. Inthis instance, climate change placesadditional stress on pre-existingsituations, worsening the quantity,condition, and distribution of alreadyscarce natural resources.Second, climate change could createnew environmental problems thatlead to instability. If coping strategiesare unsuccessful or adaptationmeasures are not taken, thelikelihood of conflict may increase ashuman security is eroded andgrievances intensify.Both of these paths posit scenarios inwhich the frequency or magnitude ofclimate-related changes or shocksoverwhelm response capacity,exacerbate pre-existing grievances,