Prospects for Nuclear Security Partnership in Southeast Asia - CNS

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TABLE 4. Southeast Asia Countries Nuclear Plans*CountryIndonesiaMalaysiaMyanmarProposed Power Reactors(based on officially announced plans)4 units by 2024 (4,200 MW)The construction work for the first unit wasoriginally expected to start in 2010, withoperations beginning in 2016.2 units by 2022 (2,000 MW)The Malaysian government should make afinal decision on developing nuclearenergy by 2013. Authorities will base thedecision on a review by the Nuclear PowerDevelopment Steering Committee(JPPKN) and three Working Committees.If approved, the first unit could beoperational in 2021.NonePlan Regulations Fukushima Impact CommentsPresidential Decree #5/2006 ofNational Energy Policy; ActNo. 17 of 2007 of Long-TermNational Development Plan ofIndonesia for 2005 to 2025.Governmental Decision onJune 26, 2009 to considernuclear energy as one of theoptions for electricitygeneration post 2020. On July16, 2010, Government adoptednational nuclear policy.National Nuclear PowerInfrastructure Plan to beprepared in 2012.According to a MyanmarForeign Ministry statementfrom June 11, 2010, authoritiessuspended nuclear researchdevelopment plans due toinadequate resources andconcern about possiblymisunderstandings ininternational community.There were no officially announcedchanges in country plans for nuclearenergy development. Officials say thatIndonesia’s future plants would usetechnology far more advanced thanthat of the Fukushima plant built inthe 1970s. However, IndonesianPresident Susilo Bambang Yudhoyonohas provided a somewhat pessimisticoutlook on nuclear power in Indonesiaand public opinion polls show that theFukushima incident has negativelyimpacted views on nuclear power inIndonesia.Kuala Lumpur has not officiallychanged its related policies, althoughon March 17, 2011 Malaysia’sEnergy, Green Technology and WaterMinister Peter Chin Fah Kui notedthat no final decision to introducenuclear energy will be made by theGovernment until the MalaysianNuclear Agency releases its full reporton the Fukushima accident.None apparent.With site selection not finalized,construction yet to start, a skepticalpresident, and increasingly negativepublic attitude towards nuclear power, it isvery likely that plan implementation willbe delayed at least 5 to 10 years, i.e. nooperational nuclear power plants before2021.If Kuala Lumpur chooses to build a powerreactor, Malaysia could overtakeIndonesia and become the second countryin the region after Vietnam to construct aNPP.Myanmar plans to further develop nucleartechnologies is unclear. Considering thefollowing factors - a) the decision ofnational government to export uranium(which is a byproduct of gold ore mining)to China, b) general lack of qualifiedpersonnel and expertise, and c) announcedin 2010 a decision to halt the developmentof a nuclear research program - Myanmarpossible nuclear power plant operationappears highly unlikely before 2030.Page 16
CountryPhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnamProposed Power Reactors(based on officially announced plans)NoneNo official plan to construct a new nuclearpower plant or to finish Bataan nuclearpower plant.NoneSingapore has not ruled out the option ofusing nuclear power as part of its energydiversification strategy. No plan toconstruct a nuclear power plant has beenofficially approved.4 units by 2030 (4,000 MW )Construction of the first NPP was expectedto start in 2014. First two units could beoperational by 2020; next two by 2021.6 units by 2025 (6,000 MW)Vietnam’s first two units will be built withthe assistance of Russia, followed by twomore with Japanese technology. The firstunit is to be operational by 2020. 6,000MW of nuclear electricity generation areexpected by 2025; 10,700 MW by 2030.Plan Regulations Fukushima Impact Comments----Thailand’s Power DevelopmentPlan 2010-2030 approved byThai Government in 2010.Prime Minister Decisions onApproval of National MasterPlan for Power Developmentfor 2011–2020 period with theVision to 2030 (Decision No.1208, dated 21 July 2011),Approval of Direction for NPPDevelopment Plan up to 2030(Decision No. 906, dated 17June 2010) and on Approval ofMaster Plan for PeacefulUtilization of Atomic Energyup to 2020 (Decision No. 957,dated 24 June 2010)Fukushima appears to have sidelined aproposal to activate the shelvedBataan plant due to due to potentialproblems with meeting up-to-datesafety standards.It is very unlikely that exotic/notproventechnology, like undergroundnuclear power plant, will beconsidered in Singapore afterFukushima, which was the case untilrecently.Thai government decided in April2011 to delay for 3 years start of NPPplan implementation.There were no officially announcedchanges in country plans for nuclearenergy development. However, Hanoiintroduced more stringent safetyrequirements to imported reactortechnologies and sites for the futureNPPS.* Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, and Laos have not publicly shown interest in construction of nuclear research or nuclear power reactors in the near future.Due to a set of reasons (no adequatefunding and expertise, lack of publicsupport), it is very unlikely thatPhilippines will have an operationalnuclear power plant before 2030.Due to the size of the country (50km x25km) it is very unlikely that nuclearenergy will be introduced in Singapore inthe foreseeable future. Singapore couldhowever become part of a nuclear powerplant project in neighboring countries(Malaysia, Indonesia) in the future.Due to the three year delay, it is unlikelythat Thailand will operate a nuclear powerplant before 2023. Thailand’simplementation of its development planwill likely depend significantly on how itsneighbors proceed with introducingnuclear electricity generation.Vietnam is becoming the regional leaderin the peaceful use of nuclear technology.Most likely it will be the first in SoutheastAsia to operate a nuclear power plantshortly after 2020.Sources: “Press Statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the Unfounded Allegations against Myanmar regarding the Nuclear Program,” Myanmar Ministry of Foreign Affairs,Nay Pyi Taw, 11 June 2010; Goncharuk Artyom, “Outlook for Nuclear Energy in ASEAN Countries,” Nuclear Club Journal, No. 2, 2011; Peimani Hooman, “Nuclear Energy in Asia:A Post-Fukushima Perspective,” Journal of Energy Security, May 2011; Presentation by Vietnamese delegation, International Conference on Safety, Security and Safeguards inNuclear Energy, 1–2 September 2011, Bangkok, Thailand; S. Biramontri, “Thailand and Nuclear Non-Proliferation,” 11 th International Export Control Conference, 8–10 June 2010,Page 17
Page 1: PROSPECTS FOR NUCLEAR SECURITYPARTN
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Page 11 and 12: stated clearly that Indonesia will
Page 13 and 14: TABLE 1. NUCLEAR INFRASTRUCTURE PRO
Page 15 and 16: Country Location Supplier Type/ Nam
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Page 24 and 25: in the region as well as a potentia
Page 26 and 27: (corrected)). 13 However, concerns
Page 28 and 29: creation of a Border Control Manage
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Page 32 and 33: (iii) Opportunities to participate
Page 34 and 35: eports, and has contributed to the
Page 36 and 37: Myanmar has established eight Borde
Page 38 and 39: Vietnamestablished controls for dom
Page 40 and 41: Customs Administration representati
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Page 44 and 45: counter-terrorism measures.” This
Page 46 and 47: cooperation are identified as the b
Page 48 and 49: autonomous national and regional nu
Page 50 and 51: Regional authorities have also note
Page 52 and 53: to the Port of Cebu in 2012. 35 In
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Page 58 and 59: Sources/Notes: See the Model Additi
Page 60 and 61: launch a training center in 2013. I
Page 62 and 63: each countries’ comparative advan
Page 64 and 65: mostly at MEPhI and at training fac
Page 66 and 67: Creation of model legislation shoul
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such efforts into Southeast Asian c
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infrastructure and culture. Encoura
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secure trade issues on the ASEAN an
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