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American motor vehicles consume one-eighth <strong>of</strong>the world’s total oil production, and ubiquitous freeparking contributes to our automobile dependency. 23What can be done to improve this situation? Here arefour recommendations:1. ITE should state in the report for each parkingand trip generation rate that this raterefers only to suburban sites with ample freeparking but no public transit, pedestrianamenities, or TDM programs.2. ITE should show the regression equationand the R 2 for each parking and trip generationreport and state whether the coefficient<strong>of</strong> floor area (or other independent variable)in the equation is significantly different fromzero.3. ITE should report the parking and trip generationrates as ranges, not as precise pointestimates.4. Urban planners should recognize that even ifthe ITE data were accurate, using them toset parking requirements would dictate anautomobile-dependent urban form with freeparking everywhere.Both transportation engineers and urban plannersshould ponder this warning from Lewis Mumford:“The right to have access to every building inthe city by private motorcar, in an age when everyonepossesses such a vehicle, is actually the right todestroy the city.” (Mumford 1981)Parking and trip generation rates illustrate a familiarproblem with statistics used in transportationplanning, and placing unwarranted trust in the accuracy<strong>of</strong> these precise but uncertain data leads to badtransportation and land-use policies. Being roughlyright is better than being precisely wrong. We needless precision—and more truth—in transportationplanning.23 Transportation accounted for 66.4% <strong>of</strong> U.S. oil consumptionin 1996, and highway transportation accountedfor 78.3% <strong>of</strong> U.S. oil consumption for transportation.Therefore, highway transportation accounted for 52.0% <strong>of</strong>U.S. oil consumption (66.4% x 78.3%). The United Statesalso consumed 25.7% <strong>of</strong> the world's oil production in1996. Thus, U.S. highway transportation consumed 13.4%(slightly more than one-eighth) <strong>of</strong> the world's total oil production(52.0% x 25.7%). Highway transportation refersto travel by cars, trucks, motorcycles, and buses. See Davis(2000, tables 1.3, 2.10, and 2.7) for the data on energyconsumption for transportation in the United States.ACKNOWLEDGMENTSI am grateful to the University <strong>of</strong> California TransportationCenter for financial support. DouglasKolozsvari provided superb research assistance. Iam also grateful for excellent advice from JeffreyBrown, Leland Burns, Daniel Chatman, RandallCrane, Melanie Curry, T.H. Culhane, Simon Fraser,Daniel Hess, Mimi Holt, Hiro Iseki, JoshuaKirshner, Robin Liggett, Bravishwar Mallavarapu,Jeremy Nelson, Don Pickrell, Thomas Rice, MichaelSabel, Lisa Schweitzer, Charles Sciammas, PatriciaShoup, Charanjeet Singh, Alexander Smith, ManualSoto, Brian Taylor, Florian Urban, Melvin Webber,Richard Willson, and two anonymous reviewers.Earlier versions <strong>of</strong> this paper were presented at the2001 Annual Meeting <strong>of</strong> the TransportationResearch Board in Washington, DC, the 2001 WorldParking Symposium in St. Andrews, Scotland, andthe 2002 Annual Meeting <strong>of</strong> the Western RegionalScience Association in Monterey, California.REFERENCESDavis, S. 2000. Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition20, ORNL-6959. Oak Ridge, TN: Oak Ridge NationalLaboratory.Hoover, E. 1965. Motor Metropolis: Some Observations onUrban Transportation in America. Journal <strong>of</strong> Industrial Economics13(3):17–192.Institute <strong>of</strong> Transportation Engineers (ITE). 1987a. ParkingGeneration, 2nd edition. Washington, DC.______. 1987b. Trip Generation, 4th edition. Washington, DC.______.1991. Trip Generation, 5th edition. Washington, DC.______. 1997. Trip Generation, 6th edition. Washington, DC.______. 2001. Trip Generation Handbook: An ITE RecommendedPractice. Washington, DC.Meyer, M. and E. Miller. 2001. Urban Transportation Planning,2nd edition. New York, NY: McGraw Hill.Mumford, L. 1981. The Highway and the City. Westport, CT:Greenwood Press.Planning Advisory Service. 1991. Off-Street Parking Requirements:A National Review <strong>of</strong> Standards, Planning AdvisoryService Report Number 432. Chicago, IL: American PlanningAssociation.Author address: Department <strong>of</strong> Urban Planning, University<strong>of</strong> California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1656. Email:shoup@ucla.edu.12 JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION AND STATISTICS V6/N1 2003

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