Climate Change and Health: Framing the issue

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Climate Change and Health Health: Framing Paper the Issue The IPCC gives an 80% level of certainty that climate change will affect vector-borne diseases. in Ethiopia indicates that higher minimum temperatures correlate with increased instances of malaria outbreaks. 52 By 2080, 260–320 million more people are likely to be affected by malaria as more areas become infested with mosquitoes. 53 Scientific models also infer that the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission are strongly determined by climate. On the assumption that other factors affecting dengue fever transmission remain the same, the global population at risk of dengue fever is anticipated to rise by 2 billion people by the 2080s. 54 Other neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) such as schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, and onchocerciasis are endemic in the tropics, primarily in the developing regions of Africa, Asia and the Americas. NTDs are the most common infections in the 2.7 billion people living on less than $2 a day 55 and these diseases are likely to be the most sensitive to climate change, exacerbating the cycle of poverty, vulnerability and mortality in the developing world. 56 Owing to lack of attention, little is currently known about the pattern of the spread of these diseases and their potential links to climate change. However, because insects tend to breed faster at higher temperatures, it 018Introduction 18 What does the science say about the impact of climate change on health? is very likely that the prevalence of these diseases will increase with climate change. A recent study of the schistosomiasis virus in China, for example, concluded that temperature increases have altered disease transmission and extended the disease northwards into currently non-endemic areas. 57 The study suggests that by 2050 the disease could cover 8.1 per cent of the surface area of China. 58 Increasingly severe floods are also exacerbating the disease; flooding in the Yangtze River has been found to produce a nearly threefold increase in acute cases of schistosomiasis per annum compared with years of normal water levels. 59 What we don’t know * • The effect of climate on the full spectrum of vectorborne diseases; and the full impact of temperature on rate of infection, geographic coverage and rate of breeding for specific parasites • Sufficient results from monitoring and surveillance of disease and mortality in sensitive regions (particularly in the developing world) • The link between climate change and neglected tropical diseases in detail Guide to Overviews 2.1 to 2.6 • Likely impact of climate change on health and timing of marginal impact assessments for the six health concerns are based on qualitative assessments of the current evidence base and data • IPCC defines short, medium and long term as: short – 2010–2020; medium – 2020–2030; long – 2030 onwards 60
Overview 2.6 Waterborne diseases Likely overall impact of climate change on health Moderate negative IPCC level of confidence that changes will occur 50 per cent (for diarrhoeal disease) Timing of marginal impact Short/Medium term Headlines • Waterborne diseases are likely to increase because water sources will be put at risk as a result of EWEs • Diarrhoea, cholera and dengue are predicted to increase in developing regions • Uncertainties remain because of knowledge gaps on existing levels of prevalence, the impacts of better water management and adaptation on water security What we know Water is critical to human survival and good health. Changes in climate will have a direct impact on water temperature and precipitation frequency and intensity, thereby altering the earth’s water cycle (the movement of water above and below the Earth’s surface). As a result, the frequency of heavy rainfall, storms, floods and droughts will increase which, as well as having an immediate effect on mortality, will also affect water availability, quality and access. Waterborne diseases are particularly likely to increase with temperature and frequency of EWEs, as drinking water from natural and infrastructural water sources will be put at risk, increasing exposure to unsafe water, the contamination of wells and boreholes, and a breakdown of infrastructure for dealing with sewage. The IPCC predicts, with a level of 50 per cent certainty, that climate change will, for example, increase the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Almost two million young children die annually because of poor sanitation or the use of unsafe water. 61 Diarrhoea alone accounts for about 40 per cent of all deaths of children under five and 80 per cent of those under two. 62 Infection spreads through contaminated food or drinking water. Those with access to clean water usually recover from diarrhoea within a few days, but in malnourished populations it can lead to severe dehydration and death. 63 In 2000, diarrhoea linked to climate change caused 47,000 deaths, most in South-East Asia. Estimates for the future of diarrhoea-induced mortality in Africa predict over 60,000 deaths in 2030. 64 This is a 10 per cent increase in risk over what it would be without climate change. 65 Diarrhoeal diseases – along with Climate Change and Health: Framing the Issue other waterborne diseases such as cholera – are climate sensitive (see Figure 2.3). Regional epidemics of cholera, for example, occur seasonally and are associated with periods of excessive rainfall, warm temperatures and subsequent increases in aquatic plankton populations. Other factors that impact waterborne diseases include localised management of watershed and catchments, changes in rainfall, sanitation, water availability and access to medicine (see Box 2.2). What we don’t know • Information on prevalence, distribution and disease burden of individual diseases • Marginal impact assessment of climate change – and the effect of improved water and sanitation infrastructure and adaptation • The extent to which social, demographic and political conditions will exacerbate water scarcity • The implications of different forms of local water catchment management on health What does the science say about the impact of climate change on health? * 19
Page 1: Climate Change and Health: Framing
Page 5 and 6: Foreword Andrew Witty Chief Executi
Page 7 and 8: will exacerbate food insecurity in
Page 9 and 10: 1. What does the science say about
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Page 13 and 14: Overview 2.2 Cardio-respiratory dis
Page 15 and 16: Overview 2.4 Malnutrition Likely ov
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Page 21 and 22: Box 2.2 Water security The array of
Page 23 and 24: Figure 3.1: Africa hosts 8 out of t
Page 25 and 26: Country profiles INDIA Climate-chan
Page 27 and 28: KENYA Climate-change vulnerability
Page 33 and 34: 5.3 Implications Given the gaps in
Page 35 and 36: Conclusion Science tells us that ch
Page 37 and 38: Appendix 1 Approach for quantifying
Page 39: 47. Bates, B. C. et al. (2010) ‘C

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