MONITORING RUSSIA SERBIA RELATIONS - ISAC Fund

not pay tangible dividends but they also complicate the realization of other internationalprojects. For instance, sharp criticism of Estonian authorities regarding the moving of theMemorial to the Soviet soldier provoked Tallinn to raise environmental objections againstthe construction of the North European gas pipeline and hence to threaten the realization ofthis, for Russia, very important project.Public OpinionThe economic crisis has become a serious challenge for the relations between groups withinthe authorities, for economic policy development, and for the state of public opinion. Thecrisis, no doubt, could bring serious political changes. However, no serious changes tookplace so far. None of the opposition parties KPRF (Communist Party of RussianFederation), LDPR (Russia Liberal Democratic Party), Spravedlivaya Rossiya (“FairRussia”), Pravoe delo (“Right Cause”), Solidarnost (“Solidarity)) took any serious steps touse the citizens’ decreased support for authorities to increase their own popularity. Massprotest demonstrations in Vladivostok, Blagoveshensk and Krasnoyarsk were spontaneousand were not organized by any party.The public opinion poll data regarding the support for the authorities during the economiccrisis somewhat differ. According to the Public Opinion Foundation, in the beginning ofMarch 52% of the respondents trusted Medvedev (some time ago this rate was higher andconstituted 56%; but in any case it is higher than the ratings during Presidential elections,which was 45%). The confidence level in Putin is steadily at 65-70%. The level of supportfor the opposition parties remains low. According to the Public Opinion Foundation, 53% ofthe respondents are ready to vote for “Yedinnaya Rossiya”, 9% - for the Communists, 7% -for the Liberal Democratic Party of Vladimir Zhirinovsky, 5% - for Spravedlivaya Rossiyaled by the Speaker of the Upper Chamber of the Parliament Sergey Mironov, 1% - for theliberal parties Yabloko (the “Apple”) and Pravoye Delo. At the last elections for nineregional parliaments, on 1 March Yedinnaya Rossiya won everywhere (although at severalelections for mayors opposition candidates won).Therefore, the authorities still have several opportunities to prevent the protest mood fromtranslating into an increase in popularity of the Opposition. At the same time, in case offurther destabilization of the situation, it should not be excluded that the authorities willhave to “find” those who are guilty for the crisis and who should bear the responsibility forit. In February 2009 governors were nominated for the roles of these guilty ones – the Headsof four Russian regions were dismissed. It is not excluded, though it is unlikely, that bigbusinessmen and particular ministers will be the targets of criticism by the authorities. In thecase of a serious deterioration of the social situation, an increase of dissatisfaction in thePresident, the Prime Minister and in Yedinnaya Rossiya is possible. However, irritation ofthe citizens so far is not accompanied with a search for alternative political programs orpopular leaders. Moreover, the population does not have clear demands for an alternativeeconomic policy, and there are almost no discussions on this issue in the press. Low interestof societal alternatives together with a low citizen interest in politics gives a chance to theRussian authorities to survive the economic crisis without serious political destabilization. Inaddition, the authorities so far have managed to carry out social payments in full (pensions,allowances, etc.) and to prevent serious delays in payments of salaries both in state andprivate enterprises.Another option which can be used to widen the support of the population, is to imitate anexternal threat by a different state (the US, Ukraine, Georgia, Estonia, Poland, etc.). As a25