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July / August 2004 - CSIR

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12A research consortium,including the <strong>CSIR</strong>, theUniversity of Natal, theInstitute for CommercialForestry Research, theModelling and MensurationResearch Consortium,consultant programmers andforestry modellers, isdeveloping an innovativeSouth African-specificprocess-based model (PBM)to predict growth and wateruse in forest plantations.Predicting growth and water usein South African forest plantationsBased in Pietermaritzburg, the consortiumsecured three years of funding from theInnovation Fund to set up a particularPBM, namely 3-PG (PhysiologicalPrinciples in Predicting Growth), topredict forest growth and water usewith useful accuracy. This model hasbeen successfully tested in manykinds of forests internationally.According to the <strong>CSIR</strong>’s Mark Gush, amajor advantage to PBMs is that theycan take into account varying weatherconditions that may restrict rates ofgrowth and water use. The potentiallydevastating effects of drought on theentire forestry industry are well known inSouth Africa. Growth may be slowed orcompletely halted until further rainfallpermits the trees to recover. Year-on-yearvariation in temperature, air humidity andsunlight may also influence rates ofgrowth and water use. Since growth ratescannot be accurately predicted over a fullrotation, a mid-rotation and pre-harvestinventory is typically undertaken to reviseestimates of final yield. PBMs mayremove the need for such costly inventories,either simulating the entire growthcycle, or the period between the midrotationinventory and final harvest.Of special significance to the SouthAfrican forestry industry is the amount ofwater used by forest plantations. PBMscan take account of many site, standand weather factors influencing evapotranspirationrates from forests, andare expected to greatly improve ourpredictions of forest water use.“This project is significant in providingthe first opportunity for these organisationsand scientists to pool their collectiveknowledge and work as a single teamfor the benefit of the South Africanforestry industry,” says Gush. “It is themost ambitious application of a forestryPBM anywhere in the world, reflectingthe need to take into account the greatdiversity of climate, soil and tree speciesin our forestry regions.”The project aims at producing a CD-basedcomputer simulation tool that allows theuser to run 3-PG for any given location.By simply clicking on maps, it will bepossible for the user to access temperature,rainfall and other required inputdata that are applicable to the selectedsites. By further stipulating the treespecies, site conditions and managementactivities, a month-by-month computersimulation of a stand of trees will begenerated. It is anticipated that such simulationswill permit:■ improved predictions of final yield■ better understanding of what is limiting thegrowth rates of trees■ scenario comparisons of different speciesmanagement options■ improved assessment of risks to forestplantations, and■ improved prediction of plantation water use.Good progress is being made in designing auser-friendly interface that will guide the user inrunning the model for any given local conditions.Model testing against a wide range of availablegrowth data for Eucalyptus grandis, Pinus patulaand P. elliottii is also currently taking place.In addition, the project team plans to develop aversion of 3-PG that links up to geographic informationsystems in use by forestry companies.Enquiries: Peter DyeTel: +27 33 260 5782Fax: +27 33 260 5266Email: pdye@csir.co.zaMark GushTel: +27 33 260 5783Fax: +27 33 260 5266Email: mgush@csir.co.za<strong>CSIR</strong> Water, Environment & ForestryTechnology

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