PEI Tourism Opportunities under Climate Change - UPEI Projects

-*"%&:/(*2$7+&%#*D=$%E$&*University of Prince Edward Island – 25 Sept 2012!! !"#$%&'()*+,$*-'&.*/(*"#'0%+$*",%()$*!! 1,$*2$3*4$%#'+'$5*/6*1/7&'50*'(*%(*8&%*/6*9#/:%#*"#'0%+$*",%()$*!! ;,%+*%&$*+,$*%(?*",%##$()$5@*6/&*A8B*1/7&'50C*!"#$!%&'()$*+,-$!

!"#$%&'()*#$+,$%")-.'-./$+-0*12(#-*)&$3#4516$57$8&59)&$,217)4#$!#(:#1)*21#0$;

Environmental Systems are Responding Upsala Glacier (Argentina) Glacier Bay National Park (Alaska)

3#4516$P14*'4$,#)O+4#$W#&*$'-$CDJC$!! ,#:*$CDJC$O$P14*'4$0#)$'4#$#Q*#-*$RGS$&#00$*")-$*"#$)1#)$45?#1#6$9=$0#)$'4#$'-$*"#$JMTD0$)-6$JMMD0K$!! ,#)$'4#$'-$*"#$P14*'4$U)0'-$")0$*"'--#6$)-$)?#1).#$JKV$(#*1#0$5?#1$*"#$&)0*$VD$=#)10$$

Ecosystems are Responding Root et al. (2003) 143 studies reviewed ‘ … balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations.’ Parmesan & Yohe (2003) ‘diagnostic fingerprint found for 279 species. …analyses generates ‘very high confidence’ (as defined by IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.’

!! 9#/:%#*'(G&$%5$*'(*DR4*,%5*)44#&#1)*#6*'(*+,$*#%+$&*?$G%?$5*/6*+,$*NS +, *G$(+7&I*!! TMU00VI$%&*:$+3$$(*TPWT*X*TPPY*!! YMT00VI$%&*:$+3$$(*TPPYZNSSY*!! YM[00VI$%&*:$+3$$(*TPP\ZNSTS*****!! OS]*/6*+,$*3/&#?.5*0/('+/&$?*:$%G,$5*/:5$&K$?*+/*:$*&$G$?'()*>H'&?^*TPU\@***D/#/0/(*$+*%#M^*NSSO**

!1)6'*'5-)&$N-?'15-(#-*)&$]-5Z&#6.#$57$%&'()*#$%")-.#*!! !1)6'*'5-)&$N-?'15-(#-*)&$]-5Z&#6.#$$$$$X!N]Y$,*26'#0$Z'*"$N&6#10$715($$$$$$RR$%)-)6')-$P14*'4$%5((2-'*'#0$$*!!$6542(#-*#6$4&'()*#O'-624#6$$$$$$#-?'15-(#-*)&$4")-.#$)41500$$$*+,&$$*-51*"#1-$*#11'*51'#0$$$

%&'()*#$%")-.'-.$^)0$_20*$U#.2-$`2*21#$%&'()*#$$!! +,$*=%G$*/6*G#'0%+$*G,%()$*'5*!K$&I*#'E$#I.*+/*'(G&$%5$*/K$&*+,$*NT 5+ *G$(+7&I*!! 9_9*$0'55'/(5*+,&/7),*NSSO*3$&$*%,$%?*/6*!3/&5+ZG%5$.*BA""*5G$(%&'/**!! +,$*:'/#/)'G%#*&$5=/(5$*%(?*5$%*#$K$#*&'5$*3/7#?*G/(+'(7$*6/&*G$(+7&'$5*!! R%5+*+'0$*+$0=$&%+7&$*3%5*`N / "*%:/K$*TPPS*#$K$#5*3%5*TYS^SSSHA^*%(?*5$%*#$K$#5*3$&$*[ZW0*,'),$&*+,%(*+/?%I*

`2*21#$,#)$F#?#&aaa$%5-*'-2)*'5-$$57$4211#-*$*1#-60$

!! 8T$F#)6#10$9)4b$ICL%$Z)1('-.$&'('*$XZ\S]*****$0'55'/(5*:I*NS\S@*!3$*&$G/)('a$*+,$*5G'$(+'LG******K'$3*+,%+*+,$*'(G&$%5$**'(*)#/:%#*+$0=$&%+7&$5******/7),+*(/+*+/*$bG$$?*`Nc".*$!! %211#-*$-)*'5-)&$#('00'5-$1#624*'5-$*)1.#*0$.'?#$?'1*2)&&=$-5$4")-4#$57$45-0*1)'-'-.$Z)1('-.$*5$ICK5L%$ $!!! ;B5&'*'4)&&=$1#)&'0*'4$#('00'5-$1#624*'5-$59c#4*'?#0$Z'&&$&#)?#$(50*$57$*"#$9216#-$57$45:'-.$Z'*"$4&'()*#$4")-.#$*5$)6):*)*'5-K@ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $>D+$,&*%(?*K/(*D+/&G,*NSS\@*!! ;Z#$0"52&6$9#$:&)--'-.$*5$)6):*$*5$IRK5L%$57$Z)1('-.@$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $!,"//*$&0$"12$3445.**$

!! Future impact pathways:risks and opportunities!! Climate change is already affectinginvestments and activity patterns!! The tourism sector is part of theproblem and must be part of thesolution

N(#1.#-4#$57$$;F)0*$%")-4#@$!521'0($!D$$*1,$0*2/3d*8(?%()$&$?*;/(?$&5.*A#%G$5*+/*e'5'+*H$6/&$*+,$I*e%('5,*»!*-&G+'G*%(?*-(+%&G+'G*;'#?#'6$*6$,71"/$8&"/#$»!*"#/7?*f/&$5+5*X*-7#0"$9:;"7/&#0$»!*"/&%#*4$$65*X*?/&"0$8"//:&/$9&&@A$-"/:))&"($»!*g/7(+%'(*9#%G'$&5VD(/3*"%=5******X*B(%&#A$B1C#A$D:E"1"*"#A$97;F:&#A$G:1:E"(H"/7$»!*R/3Z#I'()*B5#%(?5*%(?*"'+'$5******X*I"1%:J&#A$K=J"1=A$L&(:;&$»!*g%()&/K$*f/&$5+5**$$$$$$6$>17/:%"$MJ&/N1"%&#A$8"(N1"%&#O$

P'1$!1)?#&$)-6$*"#$N-?'15-(#-*/$"#$!%&''($!)*+!,-.(/0!12/3/*3!

!"#$`2*21#$'0$d5Ze$$%&'()*#$%")-.#$'0$P&*#1'-.$!521'0($+-?#0*(#-*$

!;$*%&$*%*f.556$-#Z0g$'-620*1=$%(?*3,$(*I/7*%&$*+%#E'()*%:/7+*G#'0%+$*G,%()$^*I/7*+%#E*%:/7+*#/55*/6*:$%G,^*I/7*+%#E*%:/7+*%##*+,$*+,'()5*3$*?/(.+*3%(+*+/*)/*+/*0%&E$+*3'+,^*%(?*I/7*5%I*+,%+*3$*%&$*)/'()*+/*,%K$*G,%##$()$5M***B6*I/7*5+%&+*6&/0*+,$&$^*+,$&$*'5*)/'()*+/*:$*%:5/#7+$*1#0'0*)-4#*6&/0*=$/=#$*%)%'(5+*+,$*'?$%*/6*'(675'()*'+*'(+/*+,$'&*/=$&%+'/(5M.* *P,/&#:%&(0$7@$Q"E":;"$D70&1$"(%$$K7=/:#0$B##7;:"0:7($!3445.$

^#)6&'-#0$W)**#1h$W'0'-751()*'5-$5-$%&'()*#$%")-.#$'0$$i)-.#1520$751$!521'0($B0=&/K$?*'(6/&0%+'/(*/(*'0=%G+5*'5*'(*+,$*:$5+*'(+$&$5+*/6*+,$*+/7&'50*'(?75+&I*%(?*?$G'5'/(Z0%E$&5*

2012 Respondents (379) 2011 Respondents (396)%)195-$i'04&5021#$B15c#4*$B15?'6'-.$'-751()*'5-$5-$"5Z$45(:)-'#0$)1#$()-).'-.$*"#'1$4&'()*#$4")-.#$1'0b$*5$'-0*'*2*'5-)&$'-?#0*510$Z'*"$)00#*0$57$k,lET$*1'&&'5-$80%Opportunities RisksPhysical64%55%Regulatory81%71%83%76%73%Reputation & change in consumer behaviorB#14#-*).#$$57$`51*2-#$GDD$%5(:)-'#0$3#:51*'-.$3'0b0$$)-6$j::51*2-'*'#0$1008068%58%4060200%63%52%60402080100

Tourism is in the ‘Danger Zone’ Six Industry Sectors Should Be on Alert Over Climate Change Risks §§§§§§Regulatory Risks Financial Risks Physical Risks Litigation Risks Reputational Risks Competitive Risks

.,/"'01$2/03$4($5%"3$,6$37($*,)/8,&9$!"#$%&#'()*+$,)-./%('+0)123/2+(4)!J521$'-620*1=$'0$)*$)$4150015)60$X*/($*=%+,*G%(*&$57#+*'(*/7&*:$'()*%*()c51$:&)=#1$'-$*1)-0751()*'5-)&$4")-.#$/(*%*)#/:%#*5G%#$*Jh*+,$*/+,$&*3'##*&#)?#$20$)*$*"#$(#14=$/6*+,$*?$G'5'/(5*%(?*=/#'G'$5*+,%+*/+,$&5*=&/0/+$M.*PM%R:E$>=11&/A$,/&#:%&(0$I"//:70$+(0

The Emission ReductionChallenge for Global TourismW$*5-$%jC$[SSS*YSSS*NSSS*1/7&'50*&$=&$5$(+$?*j\]*/6*)#/:%#*"

\#)"n$+$('00$*"#$()4b#1#&$)-6$*"#$456n$92*$=52$.5**)$)6('*$.&59)&$Z)1('-.$")0$9152."*$20$05(#$455&$3$4$0:#4'#0h$

!!!!!!H$%G,$5* 9/#6* f//?*k*4$5+%7&%(+5*-(($*/6*9&$$(*9%:#$5* -&+5^*"7#+7&$^k*_'5+/&I* -7+,$(+'G*A8B*8b=$&'$(G$5*

GolfSeasonModelingin AtlanticCanada-((7%#*4/7(?5*A#%I$?*+56 days+45 days168 days+85 daysD$%5/(%#*l'5+&':7+'/(*/6**l%'#I*4/7(?5*A#%I$?*

85&7$!521'0($P6):*)*'5-$%")&&#-.#0/$!! "/%5+%#*$&/5'/(*X*G/7&5$*?%0%)$V#/55*!! g%'(+%'(V$(,%(G$*&$)'/(%#*%'&*G/(($G+'/(5*+/*FD*0%&E$+5*!! ;%+$&*57==#I*S-1:E"0&$;O"(N&$:#$7(&$7@$#:T$F&*$:##=&#$@";:(N$0O&$:(%=#0/*$:($0O&$(&T0$34$*&"/#2$$$U$8K$&I*(%+'/(%#*)/K$&('()*:/?I*%(?*)/#6*6%G'#'+I*5,/7#?*:$*L(?'()*/7+*0/&$*%:/7+*G#'0%+$*G,%()$*6/&*+,$'&*&$)'/(^*%(?*5+%&+'()*+/*%(+'G'=%+$*+,$*$Q$G+5*/(*)/#6M.$97*"1$"(%$B(;:&(0$?71@$-1=)$7@$V02$B(%/&R#A$3443$

Seasonality Opportunitiesfor Park TourismProjected Increases in National Park Visitation2020s 2050sEastern +13 to 19% +21 to 47%PEI NP +14 to 18% +22 to 73%!! Increased visitor management initiatives required?!! Vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and attractions?

Risks to Coastal Tourism AssetsRemains Large Uncertainty!3#&)*'?#$o2&-#1)9'&'*=$*5$,#)$F#?#&$3'0#$F'iP3$()::'-.$)?)'&)9&#n$92*$-5*$)::&'#6$*5$*521'0($0#4*51$)00#00(#-*K$

`2*21#$+-021)-4#$%50*0$)-6$+-021)9'&'*=$57$%5)0*)&$B15:#1*'#0$)-6$!521'0($P00#*0a$+-021#10$3#*1#)*$715($*"#$d#Z$N-.&)-6$%5)0*$$*!!*B(*NSSW^*-##5+%+$*%((/7(G$?*+,%+*'+*3%5*?&/=='()*G/K$&%)$*6/&*+,/75%(?5****/6*,/0$/3($&5*%#/()*+,$*g'?Z-+#%(+'G*%(?*2/&+,$%5+*G/%5+5^*'(G#7?'()*'(****"/(($G+'G7+^*2$3*m$&5$I^*%(?*2$3*n/&E*"'+IM**!!*D+%+$*f%&0*?$G'?$?*'+*3/7#?*(/*#/()$&*3&'+$*($3*=/#'G'$5*6/&*=&/=$&+'$5****3'+,'(*%*0'#$*/6*+,$*/G$%(*>'+5*=&$K'/75*G7+/Q*3%5*T^SSS*6$$+@M**!!*_'(),%0*g7+7%#*9&/7=^*G%(G$##$?*0/&$*+,%(*P^SSS*,/0$/3($&*=/#'G'$5****'(*NSSW^*%&)7'()*+,%+*'+5*/3(*'(57&%(G$*>G%##$?*&$'(57&%(G$@*,%?*?/7:#$?*****'(*=&'G$M*

%)195-$F)9#&'-.$57$^5&'6)=0$

j::51*2-'*'#0$$!! 8b+$(?$?*%(?*'0=&/K$?*3%&0Z3$%+,$&*5$%5/(*!! D700$&*7&:%(*,$%+*$5G%=$**!! B0=&/K$?*3'(+$&*+/7&'50*=/5'+'/(*!! R$55*/7+:/7(?*!! l$)&%?$?*5(/3*+/7&'50*G/0=$+'+/&5*>28^*o"@*!! R/3*$0'55'/(5*?$5+'(%+'/(*V*G%&:/(*%?K%(+%)$*3'0b0$!! ",%()'()*$b+&$0$5*!! D$%*#$K$#*&'5$*>:$%G,$5^*%++&%G+'/(5^*'(6&%5+&7G+7&$@*!! B(57&%(G$*!! ;%+$&*&$5/7&G$5*!! ",%()'()*L5,$&'$5*

!! o#1=$&'('*#6$:15p&#$'-$B15?'-4')&$%&'()*#$%")-.#$,*1)*#.=$$*J$S07=/:#E

;%&'()*#$4")-.#$'0$4)&&'-.$*"#$*521'0($Z51&6$*5$)$1#?5&2*'5-$e@$*"/(G#75'/(*/6*1/7&'50*g'('5+$&5*D700'+**R/(?/(*X*TY*2/KM*NSSO**