January 2010 - MCB-Arif Habib Savings and Investments Limited

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Real sectorThe Economy in Numbersunits Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JanAHI FY10forecastLSM average FYTD % 0.40% 0.70% -0.40% 0.80% 0.70% -0.4PricesCPI (YoY) % 11.20% 10.70% 10.10% 8.90% 10.40% 10.40% 10.9WPI (YoY) % 8.70% 8.30% 7.80% 5.80% 9.60% 11.50%SPI (YoY) % 9.40% 7.80% 8.50% 6.70% 10.00% 11.90%MonetaryM2 stockOutstanding Bn Rs. 5,042 5,047 5,176 5,184 5,330 5,477 5,702RM stockOutstanding Bn Rs. 1,516 1,535 1,616 1,580 1,690 1,660 1,647Discount Rate % 14 13 13 13 12.5 12.5 12.5 126-Month T-bill avg. % 11.61 12.11 12.46 12.5 12.31 12.16 12.02 126-Month KIBOR avg. % 12.05 12.26 12.62 12.71 12.73 12.43 12.31 12.310-Year PIB avg. % 11.6 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.3ExternalCurrent Account Bal. mn US$ -627 28 67 -552 -283 -391 (5,000)Exports (F.O.B) mn US$ 1,554 1,467 1,599 1,640 1,417 1,629 20,202Imports (F.O.B) mn US$ 2,811 2,171 2,447 2,749 2,198 2,644 32,534Trade Balance mn US$ -1,257 -704 -848 -1,109 -781 -1,015 -12,332Remittances mn US$ 744.71 780.01 806.4 758.16 742.73 698.38 9,227Oil Prices US$/bbl 64.35 71.23 69.38 75.58 78.05 74.69 78.65 82.5Exchange Rate Rs./US$ 82.25 82.94 82.95 83.33 83.55 84.12 84.66 84FiscalFBR Tax Collection Bn Rs. 74.077 86.188 98.372 1,300Source: SBP, FBS, AHIL Estimates11
Source: SBP, FBS, AHIL EstimatesArif Habib Center, 23 M.T. Khan Road, Karachi-74000, PakistanTel: 111-468-378 (111-INVEST) Fax: +92 (21) 3247-0351www.arifhabib.com.pkArif Habib Investments LimitedRegistered with the Securities & Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP)DisclaimerThis report has been prepared by Arif Habib Investment Management Ltd. and is provided forinformational purposes only. Under no circumstances, is this to be used or considered as an offerto sell or solicitation or any offer to buy. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that theinformation contained in this report is not untrue or misleading at the time of its publication, ArifHabib Investment Management Ltd., makes no representation as to its accuracy or completenessand it should not be relied upon as such. The company accepts no responsibility whatsoever forany direct or indirect consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Thisreport may not be reproduced, distributed, or published by any recipient for any purpose.
Page 1 and 2: Tariq Ali, AHI Researchtariq.ali@ar
Page 3 and 4: O/N-7 Ds08 -15 Ds16- 30 Ds31- 60 Ds
Page 5 and 6: Some Thoughts on the Exchange Rate
Page 7 and 8: The Economics of it allThe exchange
Page 9 and 10: Business CycleKnowing where we are
Page 11: appreciates the REER, while an incr

January 2010 - MCB-Arif Habib Savings and Investments Limited

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