NÂ° 2005-09 Juin 2005 Guillaume Daudin* Jean-Luc Gaffard ...

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Competition from Emerging Countries, International Relocation and their Impacts on EmploymentForewordInternational relocation has become a topical issue in recent months, in France aselsewhere in Europe. Many economists think that the relocation process is not an issueEurope should worry about: the free-market will lead to an optimal situation; any protectionistmeasure would be an attempt to halt the emergence of developing economies. However, someeconomists think that the relocation process raises a number of issues in terms of economicgrowth and employment. Can European economies live without production industries? Whatshould be done in face of unskilled job losses?This working paper is a set of four papers initially prepared for the EUROFRAME-EFNSpring 2005 Report, a project funded by the European Commission, DG-ECFIN. The papersare available as Appendices of the Report at http://www.euroframe.org. Revised versions arealso available in French in ‘Dossier : Concurrence des pays émergents, délocalisations etemploi’, Revue de l’OFCE, n° 94, July 2005.4
I. OFFSHORE RELOCATIONS AND EMERGING COUNTRIES’COMPETITION: MEASURING THE EFFECT ON FRENCHEMPLOYMENTGuillaume Daudin and Sandrine Levasseur *From 1980 to 2002, French industry lost 1,450,000 jobs. The growth of imports fromemerging countries suggests that trade with them might be the culprit. First, however, onemust correct the raw employment loss number from the effect of the rise of temporary workand domestic outsourcing: thus corrected, the industrial job loss is reduced to 1,095,000.Offshore relocations to emerging countries are not well measured. They have entailed only45,000 job losses between 1995 and 2001. Second, the paper reviews the evaluations of joblosses linked to trade with emerging countries in general. Three methods have been used: thejob content of trade, econometric studies and macro-economic models. None is fullysatisfying. They indicate that there would be between 150,000 and 300,000 additionalindustrial jobs in France but for the rise of trade with emerging countries.IntroductionAs in many other developed countries, international relocations are currently a very hottopic in France. This can be readily concluded from the number of articles devoted by theFrench newspapers to this subject in 2004, compared to the preceding years (table 1). Aheated debate already took place in the early 1990s, culminating with the reports of Arthuisand Devedjian in 1993 1 . Recently, the new enlargement of the European Union to Central andEastern European countries (CEECs hereafter) and the suppression of quotas on textileimports, especially from China, have resumed fears about international relocations, which areassumed causing both employment losses and deindustrialisation of the French economy 2 .* OFCE. guillaume.daudin@ofce.sciences-po.fr; sandrine.levasseur@ofce.sciences-po.fr. The authors thankGeorge Gelauff, Catherine Mathieu and Henri Sterdyniak for their comments and advices.1 Devedjian (1993) and Arthuis (1993).2 Fears about international relocations, and more generally about trade with emerging countries, have resulted inpressures emanating from European lobbies on April 2005 to establish again quotas on Chinese textile imports.5
Page 1 and 2: COMPETITION FROM EMERGING COUNTRIES
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Relocation: What Matters? Competiti
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Jean-Luc Gaffard and Michel Quéré
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NÂ° 2005-09 Juin 2005 Guillaume Daudin* Jean-Luc Gaffard ...

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